I don't think there will be a Trump Administration. A combination of his errant mouth and Twitter fingers and a relentless 24/7 media campaign against him will be too much but this is worth a try as a balancing exercise. pl
RSS- The Wondrous Oak
- Three Seas Summit: Vilnius 2024
- Tit for tat until it all goes boom
- Deadly H5N1 avian influenza strain detected on mainland Antarctica
- “BYD is launching its next-gen Blade EV battery soon with more range and even lower cost”
- Iran launches air attacks on Israel
- ISW on the developing Ukrainian defense industrial base and Russias strikes on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure
- Britain? Kaput! By Walrus.
- Declaration “Dignitas Infinita” on Human Dignity
- The situation and some possible courses of action … A Pat Lang post reposted from 26 February 2022
Mexico pays for the wall.
America is great again.
Moon colonies in the next 6 months.
I don’t think there will be a Trump administration either. The larger question now is whether there will be a GOP in the future. This could become a rerun of the 1852 election.
Tyler: This is insightful: Trump understands the difference between the media and the country. See https://twitter.com/ZaidJilani/status/760925674236293120
Here are my predictions:
1. Trump visits England and Israel in the first year, and meets with Vladimir Putin in Austria. He tells the British they are still our closest friend, the Israelis they can do whatever they want, and the Russians that he doesn’t want any problems.
2. Trump starts construction on the border wall but runs into a buzz saw in Congress. The Chamber of Commerce Republicans ally with Democratic Identity Politicians to defeat any appropriation for construction.
3. Trump appoints Christie to AG, Flynn to Defense, Sessions to Secretary of State, and Don Jr and Ivanka as Deputy Chiefs of Staff. Poor Eric is stuck managing the Trump Organization.
4. The Republican Congress passes comprehensive immigration “reform.” Trump vetoes calling it “a crooked amnesty bill.”
5. Trump speaks at the next NATO and announces that he expects each nation to meet its treaty obligations and demands the alliance repurpose to fight terrorism. Countries like Italy, the Netherlands, and Norway balk. The Europeans decide to lift sanctions on Russia. Remarkably the neo-con anti-Russia “crisis” dissipates.
Here, in lieu of an Inauguration speech, are Trump’s concession remarks.
“Donald Trump, the iconic Republican candidate of his era, bid farewell last night to his followers. In a moving speech at the Alamo, Mr. Trump – famously known as Donald the Capo, to tens of millions – reflected on his failed 2016 presidential campaign.
He offered candid words about the cause of his departure from the global political stage: “The American people have failed me. Who would have ever thought that they would be dim-witted enough to vote for Awful H. as President?”
Trump continued: “She’s more than incompetent – I mean, she’s a woman. What has become of the moral fiber of the American people? It positively feels as if the entire nation has already become Mexicanized. Yes, our noble national soul has been possessed by those rapacious Latinos.
Trump also stressed “My only ambition had been to serve the Volk, and to help every family achieve my special version of the American Dream – you know how to spell the “3 P’s”: petulance, prejudice and perpetual adolescence.”
The disappointment in Trump’s voice was almost palpable when his thoughts turned to the struggle for America’s rightful place under the sun. “My goal was noble, the dedication of my true believers inspiring.”
He went on, “we may have come up short, despite our great sacrifices and heroic effort, and for that I’m deeply regretful. The derivatives stop with me. But in the end, it is much better this way. A people that votes for Hillary Clinton in a rigged election that we couldn’t stop is better off without me as their leader. In fact, such a nation doesn’t deserve me as a leader.”
As for his future plans, Mr. Trump was somewhat vague, saying only that he and his latest partner, Melania (whom he affectionately calls “my Slav sensation”), had a number of options and would be deciding shortly about the next stage of life together.
Highly placed sources, speaking off the record, indicate that a 75,000 sq ft villa on the 18th fairway of the Asuncion Golf Association was one possibility. The Capo owns it – indeed, it is the six-pointed gold star of his course galaxy. The villa could allow for an easy segue into retirement.
Mr. Trump also has a book contract in the works. Its tentative title? “F… You, America. You’re Doomed.”
With the words “That’s the real deal”, he rode off into the sunset, with his orange-y hairdo matching the radiance of the setting Texas sun.
Trump wins in November despite media campaigning with the Clintons. The people voting see through their more and more ridiculous attempts to generate outrage.
– Trump Administration cleans house in the VA and other federal .gov organizations
– Congress blocks all attempts to get ‘Trump’ legislation passed.
– Under threat of the new DOJ bringing charges against Clinton, Obama pardons her in January as one of his last acts.
– Trump turns to foreign issues as he realizes he will get nowhere on most domestic issues. Relations with Russia improve as USA works to destroy terrorists in Syria, Iraq (rather than funding and arming them).
This sets the tone for the whole presidency. At 3.x years, Trump announces that he will not seek re-election as Congress has rebuffed all attempts to make deals with them. he’s done his best to right the ship and set the course despite them.
If by some chance the Borg Queen fails to rig enough votes and Trump is selected, I predict he will be impeached and convicted.
For what? Who knows, but he will surely provide ample reasons. President Pence will then be a reliable right-wing clown.
Mr.Brenner, that would sound more like Trump if you you threw in his many “VERY” and “HUGE” vocabulary. Like “…will be deciding, VERY, VERY, soon about the next stage ..” or ” …despite our HUGE and great sacrifices and HUGE heroic effort ..” I will be so glad to not hear his OVER done rhetoric! But, then there is HER shrill voice for the next 4 yrs, or 8 (OMG!), to pierce my ears!
We can only hope there won’t be a Democratic Party either. Together they have screwed the worker (citizens) to the point of desperation. Good cop bad cop. I have no idea which is which.
If Trump does win, I believe, that would mean the end of both the Democratic Party and the GOP as we know them. While that realignment is taking place, the GOP becoming a minor party (Tea Party-ish) and the Dems being split into the Wall Street Dem (Blue Dog Dems and Moderate GOPers) and New Deal Dems, he may be able to move/maneuver in that power vacuum. Although he may have room to maneuver, his administration of the office will be chaotic and uncoordinated because of his narcissism and vindictiveness. This gives time for the establishment to sort themselves out. Once that settles he’ll be impeached, tried and convicted.
Syria – Trump cuts off all support to the Unicorns and increases support for the YPG and increases coordination of anti-ISIS operations with the R+6 (assuming that they are not destroyed in Syria before January 20th).
Turkey – Trump ensures all nuclear weapons are removed from the country and begins removal of all military units.
NATO – Trump draws down all troops from former Warsaw Pact nations.
Mexico – Trump makes initial efforts for a wall in rural Texas. Begins public campaign pointing out the income in-equality in the country and highlights the endemic corruption in their politics. Announces the need for “democracy” efforts South of the Border (maybe he can repurpose the National Endowment for Democracy)
Venezuela and Cuba – announces support for the people of these countries – should they adopt democratic government.
Domestically,
Instructs the AG to issue indictments for those of Hilary’s staff responsible for the obstruction of investigation into the email server. Follows up with an “Abscam” style sting on corrupt members of congress. New AG instructs the FBI to investigate the CGI.
Begins “Operation America” to deport illegal immigrants. Brings a new immigration bill to congress to overturn the Immigration and Naturalization Act of 1965. Institutes a 12 month H1B visas and student visa moratorium. Cuts off all federal funding for universities and colleges with “sanctuary” policies or who enroll illegal resident students. Cuts off funds for “sanctuary cities”. Makes high profile efforts when deporting “refugees”.
Submits bill to withdraw from NAFTA and an initial tax code simplification bill.
Survives an assassination attempt in his first month in office.
Professor,
I assume you’re not an English major, or else you’d not need me to tell you that brevity is the soul of wit.
This will be a Pence Administration with occasional helicopter visits by Trump.
1. Demos have a small majority in the Senate.
2. GOP controls the house.
3. Not sure on cabinet
Domestic
1. A “fix” to obamacare, mostly around the penalty. May pass.
2. SCOTUS: Diane Sykes
3. Abortion restriction and planned parenthood defunding.
Foreign:
1. Russian conflict de-escalation.
2. Empty gestures on ISIS.
3. Abrogation of Iran deal.
Matthew,
Agree regarding foreign, disagree regarding domestic problems.
Trump’s victory heralds a changing of the guard in the Republican Party. The intransigents will trade sides or be primaried. The Chamber of Commerce cucks can’t argue “muh budget” when they passed Obama’s trillion dollar budgets.
Stephen Miller is our very own Judah Benjamin, with more than a bit of the enforcer in him. I can imagine him laying out the terms to any congress creatures who decided to cuck out in favor of the CoC: Get in line or get destroyed, in so many words. Look for this line of attack to be especially effective if Juan McAmnesty loses his primary against Kelli Ward (extremely likely as the days go by) and especially if Paul Ryan’s cowardly ass gets retired.
Lars,
At this point if there’s not a Trump Administration there’s not going to be an America for much longer.
You’re being ironic but i’m going to invoke ‘death of the author’ and read it as unironic
Trump immediately sets about trying to light fires under dead asses to get his domestic programs going (includes The Wall). He finds that DC is far more corrupt and irrational than the business world he has spent his life in. He can’t get anything done – certainly not with any degree of efficiency or style. He had been warned about this and had thought he understood, but only now does he truly realize what he is facing. His every sensibility is insulted and he lashes out by frequently holding his version of fireside chats in which he excoriates the politicians that are thwarting him and he urges the American people to vote these bums out of office. Bedlam ensues. The media is freaking out. Politicians are freaking out…..
Meanwhile, in foreign affairs, Trump has buddied up with Putin. Trump tells Putin he doesn’t give a damn about Crimea, Ukraine or Syria. Putin can have them both…in exchange… He does want to stomp out ISIS once for and all – and, as a bonus, get some oil. Putin agrees to this trade. Before six months of the Trump presidency has passed, A representative US force (an air wing, a Marine expeditionary force, US Army special forces – and some SEALS and such for good measure (and because their publicity machine demands it) combines with a similar force from Russia, The ROIs are pretty loose and, already, ISIS is being decimated.
Some other fun dates from the first 6 months of a Trump Presidency:
– Cutlery is presented with fried chicken at a White House state dinner. The next two weeks Vox/Slate/Salon are writing furious articles about Trump’s fork and knife privilege and how it’s racist.
– The national media discovers more people are killed annually in Chicago than in Iraq and Afghanistan, and lay the blame on Trump, calling it “his Katrina”.
– From his Fortress of Solitude in Hawaii surrounded by white people and asians, Obama lectures America about its racism towards blacks.
– Bill Kristol, George Will, and the entire staff of The Federalist commit suicide via cognitive dissonance when Trump contracts for Israeli advisors to help design the big beautiful wall on our southern border.
The Republican party died on July 22, 2016. Rogers Ailes reign ended at Fox News, and Trump became the nominee of whats left of the Republican Party. It will take another decade for it to disappear, or more likely reemerge from this with new ideals and alliances, ones that would have been inconceivable to Lee Atwater, Karl Rove, and Roger Ailes, the architects of the last 25 years of Republican Elections.
This is definitely not over.
I finally, accidentally, watched part (about 15 seconds) of Clinton’s acceptance speech. She is an appallingly, worse than appallingly, bad speaker. Think your worst 70 year old grade school teacher balling out a friend of yours. And this is indicative of the whole problem. There are numerous people out there who can improve her public speaking. But nooooooo.
Trump wins Florida, Trump wins the election. Trump has endorsed Rubio. Got that? Rubio.
First 6 months? Rapprochement with Russia. Pence to the Supreme Court. Walls, schmalls. He’s never going to build a wall.
He is an opportunist. A clever opportunist. But he likes Broadway, so God bless him.
I think Trump will win. Trump chews up the media and spits it out. They broadcast his views for all to hear, thinking ‘this will sink him!’ Unfortunately for them, the ‘values’ of the commentariat, and indeed the experience of everyday life, do not align with that of many Americans. Trump has the edge over Clinton through policy flexibility. Once you abandon mawkish enumerations of ‘muh principles’, you can select a number of policies popular with various sections of the electorate and combine them in one platform. That’s exactly what Trump has done. Christians get a lobby. Gays get security and an implicit guarantee they won’t be stuffed back in the closet. Bernie bros get the Glass Steagall act and an assurance Trump’s won’t let people ‘die in the street’ because of welfare ‘reform’. Conservatives get Obama care ‘repealed and replaced’. Ethno-nationalists and the alt-right get a step toward arresting the de-Europeanization of America. No more wars is popular with everyone (many conservatives have turned on the Dubya legacy with a vengeance). The middle class receive law and order, and the working class get their jobs back. Most important of all, he’s running in the anti-establishment slot.
This platform more or less consolidates the white vote (i.e., draws significant support from all classes of whites), while attracting at least as much minority support as Romney got. Against it are arrayed SWPLs, and the majority of Black and Latin voters.
Trump’s secret weapon is the “monster vote” – the electorally virgin or latent voters who are normally insufficiently mobilized to cast a ballot. Arguably, Trump’s abrasiveness will mobilize some of his enemy electorates, but this will most likely be vastly outweighed by the new voters Trump has brought in if the primaries are anything to go by.
Trump’s style will turn off some voters as the Col. noted. However, there will be more dirt on Hillary and for the next 3 months or so (wikileaks has more apparently), and Trump will be singing the story of her many faults from Ohio to Florida. He’ll also force Clinton to defend typically reliable dem states like Oregon. This is very much a war of attrition when it comes to the contestants personally. Trump has a raw will to power that has a mobilizing effect, unlike Hillary who is uninspiring on the stump and naturally wonkish. He’s sufficiently mean and relentless to attack usually sacred cows – like generals who perform poorly against ISIS. It’s this constant wave of incessant attacks that backfoot his opponents. By the time they’ve taken up the sword to confront Trump on X, he’s moved on to Y. The dems managed to temporarily stem this dynamic at their convention with ”the oppressed’ hitting back. Khan hasn’t really hurt Trump. He mostly stirred up the progressive faction. Much of the American founding stock will have resented being lectured on Americanism by a Muslim or they simply don’t care. Clinton got a slight bump in the polls, but she’s fired her big guns now. And every attack that fails on Trump makes him stronger. He’s crossing the Rubicon of imperviousness. Unlike Clinton, personally hated for her embodiment of a corrupt establishment, Trump is personally hated for reasons that are essentially apolitical. He’s dickish, gaudy, mean etc. That’s another Trump edge.
I expect Impeachment proceedings to being about 6 months into his term. He will be assimilated or discarded.
The tea-party and libertarian wing of the GOP are done if you ask me. GOP will be transformed into a civic nationalist party, described as ‘white nationalist’ by their opponents. The uniparty will be abolished and the dems will be the exclusive representatives of the establishment.
Far more interesting will be the response of the electorate whatever the outcome. Because this is more than a wonk elections, its a ‘who we are’ election. If Trump did get in and retained support from his voters, only to be impeached, I could see mass civil unrest.
You and Trump obviously have much it common.
Trump already has said and done things no less ridiculous.
Pity we can’t ask him the question that has been on the minds of Americans for more than a year now:
“Mr. Trump, you present yourself as the Alpha male whose prowess makes him uniquely qualified to lead this great nation. To make the point, you boast that you have slept with some of the most beautiful women in the world. Could you please explain to us what the women did while you slept?’
My friends in Europe (mainly France and Britain) believe that there will be a significant shift of Western European nations towards the Russian sphere of influence. The turmoil and unreliability of a Trump presidency makes the consistency and predictability of Russian foreign policy more appealing.
Once Trump starts playing the ‘What have you done of the United States lately’ card the Europeans will see no reason not to see what Russia has to offer. Since the only currency that matters to Trump is the zero-sum game the Europeans will go to Russia to see what kind of deal they will offer.
To quote John Noonan (http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/john-noonan-trump-nuclear-weapons-twitter): “Nuclear deterrence is about balance. Trump is an elephant jumping up and down on one side of the scale. So damn dangerous.”
That is not the stuff that provides confidence to our European allies.
We already are doing most of those things – to small effect. The Russian air campaign has been far more effective.
To Tyler please expand on your comment – I don’t understand.
Unfortunately, I believe Trump does have a chance to win. Trump has a large and impervious minority. Maybe 35%. If Gary Johnson gets enough exposure to challenge Clinton on a larger platform, he (together with Jill Stein and disaffected Sanders supporters) could pull enough soft Clinton support to elect Trump with 36% of the vote. Gary Johnson is already clearly appealing to Sanders voters. Not yet effectively.
What would President Trump do? It is painful to contemplate.
I believe he immediately hands off all practical leadership duties to Pence, as he proceeds in the ceremonial CEO role of “being the face of the nation”. Trump is pathologically incapable of being out of the public adoration. It is a drug, and he is an addict. Therefore the first six months will be a victory tour. Likely world-wide. Meanwhile, Pence would be working to create a legislative and foreign policy agenda where none had seriously been created during the campaign period. Much of this agenda will be born of vicious infighting between various Trump sycophants.
Trump may, in fact, be faced with a partially bi-partisan impeachment initiative. Based on? Your guess is as good as mine. They will find something. By the time this Presidential race has concluded, the Republican party will be a gutted, divided and toxic wasteland. The adults left standing are going to be scrambling to salvage a party which can actually compete in the modern world going forward. Trump clearly is indifferent to governing except by fiat. He is indifferent to creating coalitions of any kind, or even cultivating allies in the House or Senate. That will hurt his ability to accomplish anything at all. That is why it will be up to Pence to work at doing so.
First six months:
1) Trump asks congress to create various new federal departments, so that they total 30. He names Democratic senators to at least half of them, leaving the GOP with a supermajority in the Senate.
2) Trump holds a summit with Putin, and then Xi, then May.
3) A border policy agreement is signed between Mexico and the US. Trump touts it as a “virtual wall”. Also announces increased physical border hardening. Claims his border-wall promise to be kept.
4) Budget deficit will be $3 Trillion: largest in the history of the US. Announces a Rooseveltian public works program. (He surely wants his face on Rushmore after he passes away).
A famous Yogi Berra quote will fall into disuse and be substituted by the phrase “Prediction is hard, especially if we are talking about Donald Trump’s actions.”
Speaking of Trump’s wall, does it run down the middle of the Rio Grand or
does he cede the entire river to Mexico? Awhile back someone voiced
concern for “all our furry friends” that drink out of that water, what
happens to them?
It concerns me that he doesn’t speak about environmental issues unless they’re all covered under the general category of getting rid of regulations. I have so many questions on numerous topics…every presidential election gets crazier & crazier. Sometimes I think I’d prefer a coalition government over this 2 party madness. Tell me about The Wall.
Please don’t misinterpret me or imagine my motives on this question. I
love the fact that the Border Patrol has endorsed Trump. The wall won’t stop visa over-stays.
Acting more presidential and rational than his detractors deem possible but poorly informed about policy details Trump is coopted by his advisers and moved into more establishment positions. His abrasive personality alienates congress and produces gridlock. Relations with Russia and Israel improve but worsen with Iran. The border wall is approved but major conflicts erupt over Obamacare, mass deportations of illegals and the nomination to SCOTUS of a pro business, anti fourth amendment reactionary. Surprisingly there is less change than both his supporters and opponents expect.
Trump will start a war with China.
Find a replacement for Scalia on the SCOTUS.
Immigration ‘reform’.
Attempt to: repeal Obamacare; abolish an agency or two, maybe EPA, Dept of Energy, or the FDA; commission to study all government welfare, relief projects, and ‘aid to the poor’ programs; calm rattled financial markets.
On the FP side. Attempts to calm rattled allies.
Trump is a genius at getting positive “negative” publicity.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/04/world/europe/francois-hollande-donald-trump.html
I would add that he must not be a Mason. Hollande would never criticize the brotherhood.
Edward Amame
“abolish an agency or two, maybe EPA, Dept of Energy, or the FDA;” These exist by statute. pl
Col Lang,
Statutes can be re-written by a willing legislature.
Elaine,
Just think of the SES planning jobs to be created to decide this and oh how much consulting money there will be available for environmental impact projects and remediation. It’s a liberal dream come true.
Thanks for providing crucial context 1-3.
With a right wing GOP House and a center-left DP Senate: gridlock.
All of a President’s ability to do anything in the domestic realm would come down to executive orders, dialing the executive branch bureaucracies in accord with new goals, refashioning the judicial branch to a minor extent, and budgeting/taxes, etc..
Would the DP shut down the government over a Trump budget?
How do you see the election outcome in the congress?
Edward Amame
Of course, but I doubt that a GOP run legislature would be all that easy to obtain the dissolutions of whole departments from. pl
Another vote for inevitable impeachment, the man simply has too many enemies and doesn’t seem interested in building any kind of coalition in the legislative branch. While he’s surely a narcissist, probably not much more so than other politicians.
His demonstrative lack of self-control, which many of his followers love, combined with a monarchical business style is what will do him in. His approach as president will be to “get things done”, constitutional limitations be damned.
Now way the Borg would hand over Washington to Trump if they couldn’t fake a win for Hillary.
An ‘October Surprise’, civil disturbances, suspended Constitution, a state of emergency..
IMO
Elaine
You don’t build it down the middle of the Rio Grande. That’s silly.
Environmental concerns are overblown by the pro amnesty Sierra Club, another willing tool of the Left that has a multi million endowment as long as it doesn’t speak of the environmental effects of mass immigration.
Linda.
The mask is already slipping. A Hillary admin will take a 50.1 majority as a mandate from Dawkins to rule as she wants.
Brenner,
When someone touches a nerve, it’s best to not announce it.
Trump had 15000 people show up in Jacksonville.
The polls are splitting geographic localities, oversampling Dems by 10, and eliminating entire brackets of demos in order to show Hillary “ahead”.
The media has lied non stop about Syria, Russia, IS, but some of you act like they’re the guardians of truth when it comes to domestic policies. Lmbo.
Herb
Projection.txt
Trump wins Florida, North Carolina and Ohio by tiny margins, and wins 279-259. However, suspicions about odd automated tabulations of the vote count are brought forward in the case of both Florida and Ohio.
That growing and credible news story is completely overwhelmed by the leaking of Trump’s tax returns on November 15.
(But, the question was about the first six months, so I stop here. Contemplating the transition is terrible enough! I let my imagination have its field day.)
Michael Brenner,
I meant to say ROEs would be loosened up. We may be doing some of those things now, but we are , from what I can tell, holding back b/c the Borg still holds out hope for a unicorn victory or enough pressure to negotiate the abdication of Assad.
With the Trump/Putin coalition all targets are fair game.
I remember the Brexit campaign. A ferocious establishment media onslaught at the outset that actually ended up undermining itself by the end, then we finally got to the debates with Leave having the better arguments and personalities, the online polls better judged support levels (see the USC Dornsife and People’s Pundits Daily trackers) and finally it was the white working class not the young who turned out.
They have gone too soon in the demonisation, just couldn’t control themselves.
Nah, 3.x years is too long. Trump will be impeached within six months, if not sooner. Senate will try him and vote him out.
Speaker of the House Paul Ryan will become the new VP, a job he couldn’t get in 2012.
The only constitution he recognizes is his own.
I am (somewhat) taken aback by the willingness of people to ignore or rationalize his deeply, dangerously flawed persona. I can only surmise that hate for Hillary, a nihilistic reaction to the Deep State / Borg, impatience for change at any price, &/or end-times fundamentalism all play a role in surrendering to the Maximum Leader to fix everything with attitude and naked power. The Mommy State is so awful, der volk slam (no slouching!) to Autocracy.
Due to an obstructionist Congress Trump can’t accomplish domestic improvements. He threatens Paul Ryan in a speech in Davenport, Iowa:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROnVNY5K-J8
Re Russia de-escalation…worth a watch
https://youtu.be/kqD8lIdIMRo
Look for him to have some physical problem within the first year- perhaps heart or a stroke. He seems very out of shape and the stress of the long Presidential campaign plus the stresses of office will wreak havoc on his body.
Ah?
And Clinton would not, or the Chinese themselves?
https://www.rt.com/news/354454-china-sea-war-warning/
Not much will happen domestically. The Dems will decide their first priority is to make sure Trump does not get re-elected. Expect lots of filibusters. On foreign policy where he can work more freely, he is completely unpredictable. Putin will have a real tightrope to walk if he wants to maintain good relations as Trump is so thin-skinned. Trump doesn’t know much about the rest of the world so will be very dependent upon his advisers.
Steve
oofda,
They’re all much too old – Trump, Clinton, and Sanders.
Welcome to the ‘Brezhnevite’ USA.
After 3 months of relentless 24/7 media attacks on Trump as well as the meme that Trump’s campaign is in disarray; and over a billion dollars spent by Hillary’s campaign and the SuperPACs that support her on attack ads in the battleground states, on the eve of the election, the Demopublican establishment, the big money, K Street and the DC apparatchicks are feeling real good as the final polls in the battleground states show Hillary with a comfortable 6-9 point lead in the battleground states of Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. Everyone is expecting an early night with the announcement of an electoral college landslide and Hillary’s coronation speech which will announce the triumph of the Borg.
The first signs of something amiss are the exit polls in the swing states which show an exceptional turnout in working class neighborhoods and a reduced turnout of blacks, hispanics and millenials. As the results come in it becomes clear that the election is gonna be decided by a few states where the count is rather close. The pundits are calming folks with “the votes from the urban Democrat cities have yet to be counted fully”. The fist shock that arrives is when Fox calls North Carolina for Trump. As the night wears on well past midnight on the east coast, Ohio and Nevada are called for Trump. Now, the election hangs in the balance as the country awaits the results in Florida and Virginia. As dawn breaks the networks announce Trump as the 45th president. The media and the punditry are in complete meltdown.
In his victory speech Trump announces that paybacks are a bitch and the Demopublican establishment, K Street and Wall Street will pay a price.
As his administration takes office they announce the following:
– AG announces special prosecutors to investigate the Clinton Foundation, K Street firms and Wall Street.
– Trump also announces that all existing immigration laws will be strictly followed. Additionally, he issues an executive order placing severe sanctions on employers who hire illegals.
– Trump also orders the US Army to deploy at the border to supplement all border forces to prevent any infiltration.
– AG announces new vetting requirements for all muslims immigrants and the FBI form a group dedicated to investigating & monitoring islamic terrorist sympathizers.
– Trump invites Putin as the first foreign head of state to a summit in DC. After 2 days of discussions, Trump & Putin announce a “no first strike” nuke policy between Russia & the US and a cooperative plan to defeat the jihadists in the ME.
– Trump informs NATO countries that unless they pony up the US will pull out of NATO.
– Trump also announces that the US will pull out of WTO, NAFTA and other trade deals unless they are renegotiated.
– In DC, he announces that he will reduce federal government employment by 20%, firing all the slackers.
– Trump’s FTC announces an investigation on media consolidation and the role of cartel like behavior by pharma companies and healthcare providers.
At the end of the first six months, GOP members of Congress and southern and mid-western Democrats agree that they will work with Trump on major reform of domestic policy.
Well, a Trump White House would almost certainly imply that Republicans will have kept the control of the Senate, as well as the House. That would throw some interesting wrinkles into the mix.
With a slim majority, Congressional Republicans will face a difficult challenge: Trump will start his administration with making noise for (but not quite proposing bills) a number of controversial (read: not popular with the usual Republicans) proposals–reforming healthcare (coinciding with the problems with Obamacare surfacing, both with the insurance industry and the consumers), an infrastructure program, immigration reforms (regarding further restrictions/deportations, possibly the wall), reducing US commitments abroad, Supreme Court nominee, etc. Republicans will be caught between the White House and sticking with their backers. A huge intraparty fight will ensue as soon as things start rolling in 2017, assuming Trump can make it that far. Possibly, this sets up the stage, unless Republicans can manage things very deftly (not very likely) for a big Democratic midterm tide in 2018.
I made the same comment about Clinton. Read the other post. You have no reason for accuse me. Please, be educated.
IMHO, China will not start a war, they are not stupid. I am not sure about your leaders.
The next US president will start a war with China soon or later. The US foreign policy is tha only USA can be a superpower. Following that policy mean tha US stop China before that country have economic and military power to fight US.
Obama policy of containment is not working, so the alternative is US start a war. And I see both Clinton and Trump as capable to start it.
But I am looking your election from other country, objectivelly. I have no reason to be angry if someone dont agree with “my” candidate, like you done with me, because I am a citizen from other country. I have no candidate for defend it with strong emotions, and that make possible to see both candidates objectivelly.
But as the US president affect everyone from any part of world, I have the right to say my opinion. If you agree or not.
I think a Third World War is a very stupid idea. And both Clinton and Trump are capable to start it. Both will have all domestic policy stoped at Congress, so both will need make something decisive at foreing policy. Like bomb or invade other country…
Oofda,
Are you insane? The man is a teetotaler and doesn’t smoke and looks like he’s in his 50s.
If you think Trump looks bad Id love to hear your opinion of Cankles Clinton.
Ked
Whoa a Trump=Hitler comparison. That’s a fresh I e.
Right now, the Borg are in full slander propaganda mode, as during Brexit.
If polls do not show a significant swing against Hillary (and not by jiggering the poll questions) in the next week or so, then Trump’s Teflon has not worn off, and he wins because Hillary has lots more dirty laundry to air. Surprised the Borg is trying so hard so soon, bad strategy, IMO, but in line with the only thing that matters are lining up the elites.
Trump faces strong gridlock, and tries to make deals with congress. Doesn’t work. So first six months he focuses on foreign policy deals. He gets Mexico to help with a US wall in exchange for helping Mexico build a wall on its southern border (True – Mexico is thinking bout such a wall).
FP – some sense returns as the US stops being a bull in a china shop (self-contradictory policies) – public “your fired’ moments for neocons.
Domestic: Trump proposes a range of new policies, gets nob where, and starts a massive advertising campaign (aka campaigning for an election) to mobilize his electorate to threaten termination (as in your fired) in mid terms if they don’t get on board. Works in red states, less so in blue states. President Trump holds letter-writing “campaign events” in key districts – here him speak, sign your name to a computer generated letter, free (local business-sponsored Bar-b-cue), and both generates lots of uncomfortable pressure and press.
Trump starts rebranding America as “great” and creating administrative rules that make relocating overseas painful, shames one or two companies as a total disgrace, and praises others, leading to an obvious message: Work with me or your bottom line will suffer.
If Trump doesn’t create a populist support movement, then he will be impeached in the first six months
Not sure to whom/what you are responding.
(I am not a ‘Murikan)
Trump’s seems more likely to make a deal with China then start a war, which is very very bad for business, particularly if it goes nuclear. As far as I can tell, Trump does not have true believer faith in anything, other than things that work (aka make a profit).
Hillary, states her true believer viewpoint (We Came, We Saw, He Died – ha ha ha), and only a true believer (in something, aka the neocon creed) is likely to risk WW3 on behalf of a principal).
moreover, Trump has repeatedly indicated that he is willing to work with Putin, despite it being the opposite of the safe political choice. Why would he not be willing to work with China.
Unless you meant a trade war with China. That I could agree with.
You may want to check your math
Sam, I agree with you on this as it matches everything he has already stated he will do. The big question is the GEMS software permitting corruption of the vote counts on voting machines. He will also have unfettered access to everything the NSA has collected and also has the stones to use this information wisely.
Appointing a Cabinet proves almost imposible. Trump and Christie have had a falling out before the inauguration, with Trump getting cold feet about Christie because of revelations in the course of the Bridgegate trial, Christie’s extreme unpopularity, and Trump’s feeling that Christie is insufficiently loyal to him. As a result, Christie’s “transition plan” is a non-starter.
Trump nominates Carter Page as Secretary of State, but a coalition of Republicans and Democrats in the Senate refuse to confirm him because of his deference to Russia and its “sphere of influence.” Many potential Cabinet picks refuse to serve in a Trump administration. As a result, some obscure individuals are nominated, but only a few are confirmed because of doubts among Senators about their qualifications.
Trump gets into a very public fight, complete with name-calling and insults, with the Department of Homeland Security, which discovered, before the inauguration, that Melania Trump unlawfully worked as a model in the United States while on a visitor’s visa, and that she made fraudulent statements when entering the country as a visitor or tourist and in her application for a green card.
Trump turns the day to day responsibility of government over to Pence and his children, and spends most of his time delivering speeches, town halls, meetings and rallies at his various golf courses and other sites that carry his brand. His speeches focus on how great his administration is going to be and continue the pattern of the campaign of offering few policy specifics.
Pushed by his supporters to begin building the big, beautiful wall, Trump engages a firm to produce the plans, blueprints, topographic documents etc. for the Wall. Millions of dollars later, the firm is unable to resolve how the numerous topographic, logistical and legal issues (water rights etc.) involved in building the wall might be resolved. Deadlines for delivery of the plans are announced but continue to be unmet because of such practical problems.
As a previous commenter suggested, Trump’s tax returns are leaked and the resulting furor about his numerous conflicts of interest throws the administration into chaos.Trump makes clear that he intends to continue to pursue his business interests while serving as President, and this prompts a public outcry, an investigation by Senate Democrats and ultimately, a constitutional crisis.
Some people read their own bias into the words of others. It’s a commonplace
To ISL, but also others as well,
I doubt news organizations tweak polls because they want to make one candidate or the other look bad–although the net effect is similar. Generally, news organizations don’t want to be embarrassed when their polls are too far at odds with the actual outcome when the dust settles, so they want to bring them in line to conform closely to what they expect will take place. The problem is that, lacking the power of prescience, they don’t know what will happen so that they will airbrush the dog brown because that fits their sense of reality–only to have the old lady get po’ed at them because she had specifically dyed the dog’s green for the photo (I lifted the story from some joke in a magazine article–not sure I got all the details right.) Is the dog really green? Things are weird enough that it might be this year.
That is a scenario that sounds great. Pure wishful thinking unfortunately. I wish it were true.
Tyler: What’s fascinating that Trump is experiencing exactly the same type of treatment as Jeremy Corbyn in England. Both men could not be more different. But both men are actual “outsiders” in that they want to change their party’s status quo. Nor surprisingly, the party hacks view both men as mortal enemies.
The Blairites in Labour are willing to destroy the Labour Party rather than lose control of it.
Does that sound like another political party you know?
Major Department of Defense procurement programs would be renegotiated or canceled. F35, destroyers, nuclear missiles.
Germany will increase defense expenditures sharply.
Japan will increase defense expenditures as will Korea. Japan will modify its constitutional definition of defense. China will test the US response by provoking a sea territory conflict with Japan.
Fascism in northern Europe will get a step up in the polls.
Crimea land grab accepted as done.
US will initiate a large scale infrastructure rebuilding program with particular emphasis on mass transit, highway and bridge construction and airports. Usage tax will be the primary funding mechanism.
McCain brokers legal migration policy and worker program.
> If there is an assassination attempt…
An interesting possibility that has been the topic of some off-line speculation. The Republican core (not base) constituency that Doesn’t Like Trump has a lot of money and wide connections.
Tyler,
Looks like he is in his 50’s? No, and he is overweight and doesn’t seem to have gotten much exercise. Add to that his self-professed junk food diet and he really isn’t so healthy after all. The letter from his MD that professed that he would be ‘the healthiest person ever elected President’ was so poorly written that it had to be bogus. And he seems to have gained weight over the campaign. And more than one observer had noted that his speech is much like someone in the early stages of Alzheimer’s. That goes back to early in the primaries
As David Habakkuk said- they all are too old. One term for the winner.
LeCashier
Most of the Blue Dogs are gone. They are no longer a force in the Dem Party which is marching steadily to the left (and dragging HRC along, maybe even a little willingly on her part). The Dem Party is now split along Sanders/Clinton lines, which now means between actual left wingers and moderate/center left wingers.
The GOP has me confused. I used to think mainstream GOPers were more ideological. Then the Trump nomination happened. Add in what just happened in Kansas (a lot Tea party electeds out and moderates in) and I’m not sure what the future holds.
What I think what would happen if Trump wins in his first six months:
In Syria, deconflictation with Russia would be kept as well as support for the YPG, and it would work, allowing the Syrian army and the YPG to inch closer to defeat the jihadis. In Iraq it would also be just the same, allowing the Iraqi army and the KRG to inch closer to defeat the jihadis.
Ukraine POTUS Trump would tell Kiev that Ukraine is none of America’s business and they should deal it out on their own or with Germany and Russia.
With Russia Trump meets Putin and makes a deal to fight jihadi terrorism together.
Regarding Israel and Iran POTUS Trump would do nothing.
But a change would occur in Yemen where POTUS Trump would tell the Saudis that it’s inacceptable for America that their war there strenghtens Al Qaeda in Yemen, so the Saudis must stop it or face unspecified consequences. The Saudis comply and do a deal with Saleh, which would also be acceptable for the Houthis, and thereby that stupid war comes to an end, while the forces of Saleh and Houthis go again on the hunt for Al Qaeda in Yemen.
So, surprising many, most of Obama’s foreign policies would just continue under POTUS Trump, and even surprising more people, also Obama’s domestic policies would continue.
PS (to the previous post about polls–sorry about going a bit OT):
While it might seem a bit suspicious to people looking in from the outside, there is nothing fundamentally specious about news organizations trying to adjust polling techniques: they do want to get “more correct” answers. But this runs into a few problems: besides the fact that actions like that seem suspicious and draws skepticism (“they are trying to cook the numbers that they don’t like!”) there is no way to tell whether the numbers are “wrong,” other than it “feels” wrong, until, at least, the final polls are taken, the actual election takes place, and the polling numbers and the election results are compared. It is a lot better that people simply accept the fact that the poll numbers are educated guesses about the election outcome if the election were held whenever the polls took place, based on what people told pollsters and a whole mess of assumptions that may or may not be appropriate. The interesting questions are always about the “whole mess of assumptions,” not whether the polls are “right” or not–because all polls will be, at least, a little bit wrong no matter what.
Allen,
You imply that some American citizen who is a Republican is going to fund an assassin. I don’t. There are plenty of vetted and un-vetted “refugees” from the Middle East and Africa as well as nuts like John Hinckley who took a shot at Reagan long ago.
oofda,
“One term for the winner.” That’s probably the most accurate projection out of all them here.
All,
It doesn’t look like he wants to win. Did Bill really talk him into this to benefit Hillary?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bill-clinton-called-donald-trump-ahead-of-republicans-2016-launch/2015/08/05/e2b30bb8-3ae3-11e5-b3ac-8a79bc44e5e2_story.html
Cee,
The stalking horse story is about a year old. Now it is just part of the propaganda campaign.
“…I’m not sure what the future holds.”
A return to common sense governance would be a damn good start.
Matthew,
Whatever could be the similarities!?
ked,
Get called on something you said, deny you ever said it.
A bold and daring maneuver.
oofda,
I’m sorry you had a stroke over there and meant to write Clinton instead of Trump, because that seems to be who you’re talking about.
It’ll be okay. Life will go on.
Kao,
The poll showing Hillary “ahead” by something like 9+ points oversampled Dems by double digits, eliminated the bracket of “18-34 year olds”, under sampled independents, put all “undecided” into the Hillary bracket, and cut irregular swathes through geography in order to sample, it seemed, Dem heavy areas.
There’s fine tuning your methodology, and then there’s propaganda.
bth,
Do you see Nazis under the bed? “Fascism”. Oh my sides.
As someone who has done some polling, I can tell you that there is absolutely no incentive to deliberately get the numbers wrong: your reputation depends on how reliably you can get the numbers, not necessarily if you could pump up, knowingly and falsely, the numbers for one side or the other. This is not, of course, to say that pollsters playing to the audience (especially for in-House polls) is not a problem, but it is really a source of annoyance rather than benefit: if I am a consumer of the polls, I don’t want to know if what I am selling is great, I want to know where my “sell” isn’t working so I can address them.
The interesting thing about polling this time around is that the polls are all over the place. I think it is dangerous to attribute this to a political bias, unless, that is, you believe that LA Times (whose poll, conducted via people at USC, shows Clinton with just 1% lead) is somehow biased against Clinton while McClatchy (whose poll, conducted via people at Marist, shows Clinton leading by 15%) is somehow biased against Trump. What is even stranger yet is that, when you look under the hood of different polls, the numbers when accounting for demographics look pretty much the same: even the McClatchy poll shows that Trump leads Clinton by huge margins (roughly 3-2 margin) among the whites without college degrees, for example (Although Marist shows Trump trailing by bigger margins than I’ve seen among the whites with college degrees. Without access to the data itself, I can’t really tell how much of this is driven by odd sampling issues) At any rate, the undecideds are common enough in every survey, notwithstanding that everyone “knows” both Clinton and Trump (and presumably know that they are not thrilled about either), that it would be dangerous to take any of these as anything approaching final.
I suppose the question is, other than pointless trashtalk (for the partisans of one side or the other), what would pollsters have to gain by claiming that their side is doing so well when they really are not. All it’d achieve, if the reality turns out to be different, is to make them look ridiculous and no pollster wants to be in that position.
PS.
In a sense, notice that what I am suggesting is even bigger problem than outright lying.
If what I am suggesting is true, the MSM is messing with their numbers because they honestly believe that the numbers they see cannot possibly be true. If they wind up “lying” as consequence, they do not even realize that they are lying because they are clueless about the way the world is looking.
That is, assuming that the world really is crazy. It sure looks that way this year, though, so I wouldn’t bet on anything, but I gotta confess that I’d been asking myself often enough: surely what I see really can’t be going on? But, I also believe that, if the world looks too weird, then you might throw out the windows what you used to think is “common sense” and start believing what you see–however crazy they seem. That is not the worldview that most people–especially the “very serious people” subscribe to, though.
Prez Trump appoints several of his campaign economic advisory team to key posts in his administration. These experienced hedge fund experts (Steven Mnuchin, chief executive of the hedge fund Dune Capital Management, Steve Roth, Vornado Realty Trust and hedge fund billionaire John Paulson) Their “hedging” of govt assets sends a crashing tsunami thru wall Street within 6 .
See:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/08/05/donald-trumps-economic-team-the-ultra-rich-to-the-rescue/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_wonk-trumpeconteam-115pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
Trump is not likely to have long coat-tails. As in the Clinton scenario, I’ll assume Democrats take a slim majority in the Senate, and Republicans hold the House.
In the first six months, Speaker Ryan sticks to the rule that legislation must pass with a majority of Republicans. As this will be an effort to unify Republicans, bills from the House will be modest tax and regulatory items. After some time, bipartisan bills from the House could result as new alliances form while Republicans realign. Trump would not necessarily fight on the same side as the Republicans in Congress.
After a public disagreement with Trump on some issue, Pence goes out of the public eye. Pence continues to have a crucial role in policy formation and negotiations with Congress. By the end of the six months, dissatisfied, Trump takes over.
Kao,
These people are not “very serious people”, we agree. They believe they are on the side of the angels, and anything they do is the “right” thing to do. They lied about Maidan, they continue to lie about Syria, about Muslim terror attacks, about illegal alien criminals in our midst.
Reuters LITERALLY rejiggered it polls to favor Hillary, and then went back and Ministry of Truth’d their old polls down the memory hole. You act like it’s “just business” in the polling places, when it is obviously not. They have yoked themselves to an ideology, and they don’t care if anyone finds out they were rigging the polls. Look at Journolist, look at the DNC emails where major figures were running collusion with the DNC on stories.
They just ignore it and pretend it never happened while talking nonstop about Trump eating KFC with a fork and knife. Its pretty obvious what they’re trying to do by mangling polls and pretending Clinton has a +15 lead – they’re trying to create an aura of inevitability around her, and barring that they want another Bush v Gore where they can wave their Very Scientific Polls around and claim that Clinton was ahead by a gorillion points! That dastardly Trump must have hacked the polls!
And then the talking heads can talk about the “illegitimate” President Trump and how Congress is obligated to stop everything he ever does because he’s illegitimate.
Stop believing these people are impartial. They are not. They are evil.
GWI,
You mean they deflate the Wall Street venture capital bubble that’s based upon investing in companies who figure out ways to get you to click on ads and unicorn apps, blasting speculators out of the system and forcing people to invest in actual hard assets?
Great idea!
“All it’d achieve, if the reality turns out to be different, is to make them look ridiculous and no pollster wants to be in that position.”
I like you Kao, I really do. But you’re missing the point that the other side doesn’t care if you’re ‘right’ or ‘wrong’, since everything is relative. Its more about being in agreement, and if you’re wrong but in agreement with the Left/Globalists, than everything is okay.
Nate Silver has been horribly, horribly wrong this entire election cycle, constantly rejiggering his own polling to show how Trump can never ever win.
How much has that hurt him? Obviously, no one cares about “looking silly” because they know the Borg will protect them.
Ahhh, Tyler, your on the $$ trail. Keep sniffin’ the stuff trickling down from those Voodoo $$ changers and you’ll dream well about being a 1%er! But only in your dreams…sleep well.
I would almost wish that they are lying knowingly, rather than lying unknowingly. People who know that they are lying can be expected to adjust when necessary. People who don’t know they are lying lead children’s crusades with conviction.
My take on polls is that one should never trust the overall numbers (which reflect a lot of guesswork on the part of the pollsters than anyone might think) but always look at how each demographic is trending and add up the numbers yourself within reason. Granted, this could involve rather more work than not, to figure out how to best piece together the numbers, but all the wild poll numbers suggest that the professional pollsters don’t know what to do with them either. In contrast to the wildly varying aggregated numbers, though, the numbers by demographic subgroups have been far more consistent over time (if they are available). None of them suggests that who will necessarily win, but they do show how the election will shape up with much greater clarity.
How do you think Richard Dawkins would fit into a possible Clinton cabinet?
It is a parody of a speech, one of which will go on for a few minutes. Perhaps it would have few more words than a clever sentence in it.