“At approximately 6 a.m. local time on Saturday, an enormous explosion rocked the Kerch Strait Bridge connecting the Crimean Peninsula with Russia. As a result of the explosion sections of one of the two parallel road decks collapsed and a train carrying flammable fuel was set ablaze causing significant damage to the railway bridge.
The cause of the blast remains unknown, but several theories could explain the bridge’s partial collapse.”
Comment: MAD seems to still work. pl
Crimea bridge: The four ways Ukraine could have taken it down (telegraph.co.uk)
The article lists truck bomb, boat bomb, missile attack or SOF strike as the four possible methods with the truck bomb as the most plausible. The missile attack is widely dismissed because we, or someone else, have yet to give them to Ukraine. I think there’s another possibility for a missile attack, Ukraine’s homebuilt Hrim-2 SRBM. This missile system is similar to the Iskandar-M with a longer range and twice the warhead of ATACMS. We don’t know if any are in service, but we didn’t know the Neptune anti-ship missile was in service until the Moskka was sunk.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/does-ukraine-have-a-stash-of-domestically-developed-ballistic-missiles
The possibility that Ukraine may have a few operational Hrim-2 missiles should cause an epidemic of anxiety diarrhea in the Kremlin. Ukraine’s effective use of HARM anti-radar missiles has made Russian radar operators reluctant to turn on their radars making it that much easier for a missile strike on the bridge… or a second strike.
Still, even the Kremlin says it was a truck bomb. Do they know it was a truck bomb or are they hoping it was just a truck bomb? A truck bomb could be explained away as a one off occurrence, a lucky fluke. I think the Russians should be just as frightened, if not more so, of the truck bomb theory. I know things about the clandestine intelligence, logistical and support infrastructure needed to pull off a truck bombing of this scale. Much of that infrastructure would still in place and the capability to create and activate more of that infrastructure would certainly still be there. I said before the Kremlin is in a winter of discontent if Ukraine’s “secret warriors” are this active. They’d be better off if all they had to worry about was just a handful of Hrim-2 missiles.
TTG
Would that “range” the Kerch bridge?
pl,
Most definitely, 400 to 500 km. That article from “The Drive” offered the Hrim-2 as a possible explanation for the strike on the Saki Airbase back in August.
Given that Ukraine homebuilt its own Hrim-2 SRBM would its accuracy be enough to guarantee a hit on the roadway? The negative consequences of failing to hit are significant. No significant military targets were seen on the bridge at the time of detonation.
There is one explanation for the suicide bomber being Russian. Russian atrocities against Donbas civilians (some of whom were actually Russian emigres) and the driver is related to the victims.
Mike B,
The bridge itself is a significant military target. Ukraine was where the USSR’s missiles were designed and built. They have skills. They’ve also had the assistance of the West for the last seven months to tweak their guidance systems.
Drivers of truck bombs could be witting or unwitting. There are plenty of reasons for witting drivers to do what they choose to do. Look up Romas Kalanta to see how far are willing to go. It’s not just jihadis.
TTG, I’m sure you are correct, but the war so far has a lot of the characteristics of the WWII “phony war” phase in that Russia by choice has declined to pursue “total war” as practiced in WWII and perhaps Kiev has done likewise out of a lack of armaments.
There is ample evidence that Russia has constrained its responses to date despite the blathering of the western media. The evidence is clear; Ukrainians behind the line still enjoy electricity, sewerage, road and rail infrastructure, hospitals and private transport in their own cars as well as adequate food. So it would seem do the donbass folk.
I don’t want to get into a pointless argument about proportionality but it’s blindingly obvious that Russia has held back. If they were not then there would be no Ukrainian infrastructure left and Kiev by now would resemble something like Berlin in 1944 – not one stone atop another and the landscape would be populated by starving refugees on foot.
If we have the interests of the Ukrainian people at heart we would be encouraging both sides to start peace talks right now, not fanning the flames.
Ukrainians cheering about the Kerch Bridge are cheering for their own destruction. Washington idiots advocating, for example, HIMARS with a bazillion tungsten ball bearings and suchlike seem to forget that two can play that game.
The hypocrisy is also overwhelming; look at what we did to Baghdad – destroyed its civilian infrastructure at the start, mind you, of our despicable invasion. Furthermore if we continue to provoke Russia, the option exists for them to wait till the weather gets cold, then destroy Ukraine transport and energy infrastructure and put 10 million starving Ukrainians on the roads heading West. I guess that would give Washington and the Kagan clan a warm feeling.
“Russia has held back. If they were not then there would be no Ukrainian infrastructure left and Kiev by now would resemble something like Berlin in 1944 –” Horseshit! They lack the capacity.
Col. Lang, that is not what the media say. The Russians must have so many rockets and bombs that they can afford to drop them on defenseless civilians.
Walrus: The Ukraine is not some remote group of sheep herders. Ukrainians are damn fine engineers/scientists and fighters. Russia wanted Ukraine whole and subservient.
10 million Ukrainians are going to be replaced by 10 million no-nothing Russians with their hands out for government support? How does that benefit the Kremlin?
Any idea how many they have?
Not a clue. Ukrainian MOD was scheduled to acquire a battery of 2 TELs and 2 C&C nodes this year. The contract for that acquisition was signed in February 2021.
I like the Hrim missile theory as an air burst. But where is the evidence of shrapnel damage? Where is the rocket motor? RU divers have reportedly been inspecting the bridge piers, wouldn’t they have found it?
Leith,
I’m not sure the Russians are eager to even contemplate the possibility of a missile strike. It’s far more comforting to think the bridge strike was the result of a simple, not likely to be repeated, run of the mill truck bombing.
TTG. Lots more trucks and lots more munitions in the area than Ukranian missiles.
Mike B,
And plenty more customs inspectors to buy off or turn.
That is what we do.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11299677/Shahed-136-Iranian-drone-used-carry-deadly-strikes-Ukraine.html
This is more reminiscent of the early days of the invasion when Russia unleashed cruise missile strikes across Ukraine. I’m not certain it is going to change much the situation on the frontline. The question is if the west begins to arm Ukraine with longer range missiles and drones and even aircraft?
blue peacock,
A lot more air defense systems is an immediate need.
The Russians are, today, showing what they are good for, attacking civilians. Evil is as evil does. They can’t run and gun in the field, but they can hit things that don’t move. Belarus coming in, been waiting for it. That Black Sea fleet that shot the missiles over Moldova, that gotta go. I would suggest that this is a culmination point, for those who make excuses for the Russian. After this, only traitors continue their slimy seduction. Oh, and hitting the Germans in Kyiv, good move.
“those who make excuses for the Russian.
After this, only traitors continue their slimy seduction.”
I definitely make excuses for the Russians.
There is lots of talk at this blog about “liberation”.
The question is:
“liberating whom from what”?
It should not be surprising that
the separatists in the Donbas
thought they were being oppressed by
the Ukrainians who supported the West.
And that Russia’s “SMO” was to liberate them from being oppressed by
those Western-oriented Ukrainians.
As to the reference to “traitors”,
I believe it is my patriotic duty to oppose U.S. aid to Ukraine,
as being grossly against the U.S. national interest.
The risk-to-reward and cost/benefit ratios are out of sight.
KH
I would be sympathetic to your point of view about the Donbas if Russia had not tried to take Kiyiv and decapitate the UK government. who calle you a “traitor?” Me?
The “traitor” reference was a response to the remark from Cobo that I quoted.
He does not specify who he considers a traitor,
but from his preceding sentence,
I took his reference to be to
“those who make excuses for the Russian”.
Keith Harbaugh
I do not consider the opinions of others traitorous. An array of opinions is important to help make sense about what is going on. On the other hand, there are proponents of the Russian Ministry of Defense’s propaganda that are going beyond informing the public to differing viewpoints and starting to look a lot like aiding and abetting what may one day be a declared enemy. The investigations into the deconstruction of western societies will become an issue. The analysis has already been done and documented. One such is Yuri Bezmenov, whose instruction in how to destroy a society is clear. That is why the ongoing battle against free speech, or, at least, wrong speech.
Russia decapitated the UK government?
I fear having lost that one..
How that was done?
Russia tried to kill/wipeout the Ukrainian government early in the war. You think you are clever don’t you, wise ass?
Col. Lang,
Apologies in advance, but while in the current context UK obviously means Ukraine which is usually abbreviated UKR or more properly UA.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_3166-2:UA
Unfortunately, the proper “owner” of the UK digraph is the United Kingdom which just suffered the loss of their great queen Elizabeth the 2nd of her name and political loss of their less than great prime minister Boris Johnson.
Charitably and congruent with Occam’s razor, I think the ambiguity may have caused confusion.
Civilians have been dying on the Russian side since 2014 as well as a result of Ukrainian shelling. It is just being ignored in western media. CNN will not show civilians literally blown to pieces on the streets of Donetsk.
This works in reverse of course, Russian propaganda ignoring Ukrainian civilian casualties and concentrating on their own.
This is not a black and white conflict. Ukraine good, Russia bad.
Here is former Ukrainian president Poroshenko with some ideas how to deal with Russian separatist. This was in 2014 or 2015. Needles to say his own military age son is safe in London.
“Our children will go to schools and kindergartens, and their kids will sit in bomb shelters!”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_FmdxTykQI
Borko –
And here is former governor of Donetsk People’s Republic saying to Ukrainians that:
“We aren’t coming to kill you, but to convince you. But if you don’t want to be convinced, we’ll kill you. We’ll kill as many as we have to: 1 million, 5 million, or exterminate all of you.” He also “We aren’t coming to kill you, but to convince you. But if you don’t want to be convinced, we’ll kill you. We’ll kill as many as we have to: 1 million, 5 million, or exterminate all of you.” He also says that Ukrainians are a Russian people that are possessed by the devil.
He was also a member of the former neo-Nazi RNU party.
Leith, we seem to have come full circle by now.
Post 9/11 some misguided antisemites among us, if we avoided the room’s mirrors, asked themselves if ‘the West’ as result of the Great War on Terrorism would follow in Israel’s footsteps. Living with body checks everywhere. But via the Ukraine we might finally thankfully fully embrace the concept. We are all united now as tiny, medium or big Israels under America’s huge protective blue Madonna Coat.
https://thegrayzone.com/author/alexander-rubinstein/
What do you think is wrong with Katya Sedgwick?
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dont-buy-the-narrative-on-ukraine/
LeaNder –
I never heard of either of them.
Did you mean this Blue Madonna? https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Blue%20Madonna
What do you think is right (or wrong) about Ursula?
https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1579442006287388672
https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1579868765608710145
What WMD is our current $60 billion dollars of US “aid to Ukraine” actually buying, when it filters through the US defense industries?
Do US tax payers ever get an audit for our US tax dollars spent.
What is the alchemy that allows peace and love Democrats to hate our own US military; while cheering WMD sold recklessly to other countries around the world?
Deap
“Weapons of mass destruction?” (WMD) nuclear weapons, Gas or Bioweapons? What on earth are you talking about? You have gone nuts.
https://twitter.com/thomasvlinge/status/1579532532034703360?s=21
What changes will we see on the battlefield, if any, if we assume the Russian military has the volume of missiles and drones to continue attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure?
Kerch bridges. It’s a dead story. The railroad works at 100%, the road at about 30%.
It was a beautiful operation, beautifully combined. In fact I admire it, but it is a failure.
This story resembles the Pariser Kanonen, known here as Grosse Bertha, between March and August 1918, Paris being the target. A huge technical effort, 750 metric tons for the gun and its mount, unique performances in the world: range 120 km, speed of the shell at the muzzle 1600 m/s. Great mobilization of personnel (army and air force) for its service and for the protection, of which the masking.
Results: about 300 dead and a church destroyed.
Nothing else. No operational effects on the allies. Parisians did not rush to surrender. 3 million Parisians shrugged their shoulders and went to work.
Diversions from the main effort do not pay.
No. It is not like that. In addition to the psych effect, it has damaged RU logistics in Crimea.
d74,
The Europeans spent 4 years butchering each other 1914-1918. As to that bridge: “the road at about 30%.” That sure cuts the logistics flow across the straits and creates a heck of a traffic jam on each end.
D74 –
It will be a long time before that railroad bridge is back up to 100%. Sure, railworkers can replace the melted steel tracks very fast. And they can send some lightweight trains over, but not heavier ones.
The fire also was blown down the windward side and then underneath the bridge. A few Civil Engineers online have made some expert observations:
* concrete loses 70% of its strength at at high temperatures and steel loses 70%.
* the track ballast under the RR ties (sleepers) in combination with the high wind acted as a forge.
* the huge synthetic rubber swabs (vibration isolators) that protect the pylons are probably also “cooked” it could take months to replace them.
D74 –
PS – How did you figure that the road bridge is at 30% capacity? It is down to just one lane out of four originally. So 25% but that is degraded even more by the now intense vehicle inspections performed by the FSB. They just took over the protection of the bridge, prior to that it was run by a specially formed Rosgvardia unit dedicated to safeguarding Kerch Bridge.
Leith,
It’s apparently worse than that. According to the sources I was seeing last night the open stretch has a 3.5 ton weight limit. That means your standard truck is at the load limit without cargo. My F-150 is half the load weight. Good luck moving anything of value over that. The rail line was apparently tested with a 15 car train. They’ll be busy shuttling loads and empties across that. They need to build a lot of cargo barges and tugs to push them across the straits.
According to a Finnish explosives expert, a truck bomb was used loaded with captured Russian thermite explosives that they had used previously in the Donbass area.
That would explain the scintillating sparks in the explosion.
Yalensis @ awefulavalanche.wordpress.com translates a Russian social media report, a Telegram tweet.
Initially there seems to have been talk that the freight was film, celluloid, at least he translated it like that. As there was talk about the driver and his nephew. Now we hear about his wife’s involvement in the family transport business.
Okay, let’s get back to the evolving story about the attack on the Bridge. My source is this Telegram tweet. Makhir Yusubov was the unfortunate driver of the truck that exploded on the Kerch Strait Bridge this past Saturday… Here is the chronical of events
On Thursday October 6, Makhir’s wife Naiba received an online order from a company previously unknown to them, called TEK-34. She and her husband run a sort of family business together: Naiba manages an account (set up in her name) on a popular online ordering system for truck deliveries; husband Makhir drives the truck that delivers the orders. This particular order was a for a very large delivery of “containers and packaging material” (тары и упаковки). In a previous post that I linked, the packing material was called “film” but I don’t think they meant camera-type film, I think they meant rolls of filmy material used for packing. Sort of like giant sheets of saran wrap. That is is my latest interpretation.
Makhir Yusubov: The ritual sacrifice.
On Friday October 7, Makhir, driving his famous truck, arrived in the city of Armavir, which is located in Russia’s southern Krasnodar province. He pulled up at an ordinary “garage cooperative” to load the cargo. He was told that the cargo needed to be delivered to the customer in Simferopol (Crimea) by 10:00 AM the following day.
Original Telegram channel report:
https://t.me/ENews112/11978
All things being equal,human nature is truly the final frontier and the most in need of change.
C’mon man. You know that is not going to happen.
mcohen
But are we not made in God’s image, are you dissatisfied with His work? Not to worry, there are folk working on that final frontier as we speak.
The image has always been less than perfect and continues to be.
Sure, but IMO the cure for the human condition the transhumanists have planned will be far worse than the disease. This seems to be a minority viewpoint at present.
Human nature changes at a glacial pace. If you expect anything else, you are mistaken.