More details are becoming available about what may have caused President Donald Trump to back down from imposing broad new tariffs on most of the world. Following several days of financial markets sliding in response to Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, the president announced Wednesday that — with the exception of tariffs on China — he was pausing all other trade duties from going into effect for 90 days. In a Wednesday segment on Fox Business, commentator Charles Gasparino said that several sources confided to him that it was actually “the White House who capitulated.” He added that while he was a “patriot” he admitted that the Trump administration was the first to blink based on the international bond market.
Gasparino said that the administration ultimately pulled back because of threats that Japan — which he said runs ” major money management firms that are involved in the bond market” — was contemplating dumping some of its estimated $1.26 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities. Gasparino said Japan “forced [the administration’s] hands” with the move, and said that he was told Japan now believed the United States bond market “was not a great place to do business.”
“He had no choice,” Gasparino added. “The gun was at his head. It was very bad.”
Essentially, U.S. Treasury securities — which make up the vast bulk of the $36 trillion national debt — are the primary way in which institutional investors and foreign governments choose to park their money. While the FDIC only guarantees bank deposits up to $250,000, U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. But if a major buyer of treasuries decided to dump their holdings, it could potentially trigger a sell-off throughout the rest of the bond market, causing a global financial crisis.
The U.S. Treasury securities market is also highly dependent on Congress raising the debt limit, which it statutorily has to do by this summer. If Congress fails to raise the debt limit and pushes the U.S. into default, it would effectively violate the guarantee associated with treasuries, which would also lead to a major financial catastrophe. Trump said earlier this year that he would be in favor of abolishing the statutory requirement to raise the debt limit, and abolish the concept of the debt ceiling entirely.
https://www.alternet.org/trump-capitulated
Comment: Last night I read that China was starting to sell off US treasuries and that we were about to sell more bonds. The interest rate on these bonds was rising. I didn’t put it all together until this afternoon when I learned that Japan was also beginning to sell our treasuries. I find it hard to believe that somebody in Trump’s economic circle wasn’t well aware of this possibility. But I do believe that Trump may not have had a clue until it was explained to him today. (It probably took the equivalent of a two by four soaked in motor oil to do it.) He was fully committed to the huge worldwide tariffs until the T-bill reality kicked him right in the jollies.
He’s still fully committed to a tariff war with China, but he’s still keeping heavy tariffs on the rest of the world. Ten percent is still disruptively high. His unrequited love for the most beautiful word in the world will not be denied. Not that I support his tariff-driven trade war, but I think he’d be much better off if he concentrated on China and perhaps those countries like Viet Nam and Indonesia, where Chinese manufacturers have found haven, and left the rest of the world alone. Selling our T-bills is still a danger, but at least Japan and others may hold onto them if the catfight stays between China and the US. I don’t think America alone is going to cut it.
TTG
Dumping T-bills is an empty threat. After the Japanese investors have sold their T-bills with a hair cut they now have a lot of US dollars in cash. Is the interest rate at a bank account better?
If the Japanese were to sell their USD for Yen the currency effect would be like adding additional tariffs on all Japanese goods. Plus Japan would no longer be able to have a trade surplus with the US as that would again accumulate USD. Japan would be doing Trump’s work for him.
The foreign capital which would leave the US would be non-trade related speculative in-flows. Would it results in higher interest rates. Yes, but that is a desired outcome. Americans have overconsumed due to an inflated value of the USD. The savings rate is too low and borrowing too high – both private and public. You need higher interest rate to:
1) increase savings which are needed to invest in factories, infrastructure etc.
2) discipline the US government on it’s insane borrowing fueled spending spree.
3) force big reductions in government spending including massive cuts in the US military.
Just as it have taken decades for the US to end up in the present situation. It’ll take decades to get out of it. It’s not the end of the world but it’s also not the “good times”.
I am at a loss to understand your logic “The savings rate is too low and borrowing too high – both private and public.” True this is the current situation, the prices were low due to inflated value of USD as you say. With the tariffs taking effect naturally the prices are going to go up and how do you suppose the private and public which was used to borrowing will turn on the switch and save money to invest? As far as I know a good 30% of people live pay check to pay check. How are these people going to survive in these dire conditions? Else where I was reading an article by an Patriotic American Industrialist from Texas who has explained how difficult it is for him to hire qualified workers (This is not a joke I am talking about just assembling parts some of which he imports from various places). To create an industry you need a well laid out plan stretching over decades and unfortuanately our society is not geared up for that since we have 2 year cycles not even 5 year cycles. When the ex presidential candidate Vivek (First candidate to drop from the race and support Trump) said that we need to revamp our value system do you what happened to him? All the MAGA crowd jumped on him for demeaning the American worker. Now I hardly see any of his videos on Youtube. Wonder why? Thanks
Where do the money that American companies invest in China come from? Is that not private money?
Yes American families will suffer a drop in living standards but the standard they have now is too high due to foreign currency manipulation, state subsidies. And is debt fueled. Key here is debt fueled.
That system WILL break at some point in the future. And the longer you let it run the worse the collapse will be. Better start reforms before the collapse.
Plus when you bring back production to the US it will also bring some jobs back. Due to productivity increases in industry it will not be as many as was lost in the past but these jobs will require skills and be better paid than now.
Why hire an American machine tool specialist if you can hire one in China, Poland, South Korea or Japan to a lower wage.
One of the reasons for working class Americans low wages is that they have been competing with foreign work forces which receive much lower wages. That competition will go away with higher wages been possible if immigration is kept down.
The biggest losers will be the top-10% riches Americans. Their stocks, paintings etc. will tank.
Poul,
Not an empty threat. You did not take into account the lost of confidence. If Japan “now believed the United States bond market “was not a great place to do business.”” then they are going to reduce the exposure while they can.
Then let them cut their own throat. The FED has unlimited number of dollars to buy US bonds with. But what discount will Japan have to give to sell USD for YEN. 40%?, 60%??
It appears now that the selloff of US Treasury Securities didn’t come from the Japanese Government (and they have strenuously denied it from the get-go) but from private holders who were spooked by – let’s be honest here – the lack of consistent messaging from the Trump Administration.
So the damage was internally-inflicted, it didn’t come from the Treasury walking down a dark Tokyo alley and being king-hit by some Yakuza thug.
That’s just hot money flows from foreign and American hedge funds, pension fund, sovereign wealth funds and wealthy private individuals.
The US have been the economic Wunderkind in the last couple of years which is why the US stock market has been booming, but now investors is moving to other parts of the world. It is business as usual.
Poul,
Agree. What will they do with their money in lieu of US instruments? Additionally, it looks like they would be selling at a discount. The US could even buy at them back at the discount and lower debt by doing so.
As far as China, specifically, goes, they should tread carefully. Trump could decide to default on their T-Bills. “Sorry, Xi, your T-Bills have are non-redeemable worthless paper as of 0900 Zulu. Go pound Pangolins”. Make it so any paper that started off as Chicom owned is non-redeemable for anyone holding it, So passing to a third party for sale is a non-viable option.
Seriously.
If we can seize the assets of Russian “oligarchs” we can certainly de facto seize the assets of the Chicoms.
Eric Newhill,
Those US instruments are how we finance most of our debt. What are you saying? “We’ll show them. We’ll default on those T-bills and our debt. That’ll teach them to defy us.” All those 50% US owned factories in China will become 100% Chinese owned overnight.
TTG,
It’s a war. You’re going to take casualties in the process of winning. The impact on the Chinese would be worse, IMO.
TTG,
Think of it like your business declaring bankruptcy. You owe various contractors a help of money before you walk into the US District Court and you owe them $0 (or pennies on the dollar) when you walk out of court.
We just don’t redeem the instruments China is holding. Thanks for paying into the USA, we ain’t paying out diddly. Period. Full stop.
Now, we would have to find new countries or entities to continue buying our bonds. And, yes, they might be a little nervous about it after seeing what we did to China. But I ask again, where else are they going to go with their money? The bond market could be smoother over with a little of this and a little of that.
China bond holdings are not so huge compared to the total as to make that much of a difference. I will say, with certainty, that if China attacks Taiwan, the US will do exactly what I suggested. They get nothing on the paper they’re holding; 100% loss.
I note that no one on the left is talking about what happened to China’s markets this week. It’s all Orange man crazy, stupid and bad.
Anyone notice what has happened re; the Panama Canal this week? Of course not.
Anyone notice how all of the countries, other than China, are now aligning with the US in the economic war against China. Nope.
Did it ever occur to anyone that the other countries are big fans of looming enslavement to China? Of course not.
I’ll say it again, liberals hate their own country, their own race (if they’re Caucasian), their own gender (if male) and love them some foreign oppressors and terrorists. They see everything through that lens. Show me a liberal that doesn’t take sides with Iran, Russia, China, Hamas while criticizing the hell out of the US.
We just don’t redeem the instruments China is holding. Thanks for paying into the USA, we ain’t paying out diddly. Period. Full stop.
Yes, the world owes the US.
I wonder for longer now why my country is so stupid to leave a third of its gold reserves in the US. We owe you even more, really?
LeaNder,
You should be wondering why AfD is now the most popular party in Germany. Perhaps those people don’t want to deindustrialize or get led into yet another European war.
Eric: “And, yes, they might be a little nervous about it after seeing what we did to China.”
A. Little. Nervous.
That’s a very Panglossian view you have there, Eric.
“But I ask again, where else are they going to go with their money?”
Oh, that’s an easy one to answer: they’ll put it into whatever replaces the dollar as the new global reserve currency.
What, you think the world will just stand still and not move on from such a dick move?
Eric: “The bond market could be smoother over with a little of this and a little of that.”
I don’t think that’s going to cut it, Eric.
You do, obviously, and good for you.
“Think of it like your business declaring bankruptcy.”
Imagine Donald Trump leading an enterprise to bankruptcy…is that even allowed? Do you think he could ever do that? Again? And again? And again? And again?
rick,
He made money going in and out of bankruptcy. A lot of businessmen do. That you think bankruptcy = failed business shows that you do not have experience and/or are just playing gotcha games.
China has the worse hand in a Trade War. It’s important to point out that both China and the US will suffer in the transformation of the economies of the two countries caused by the conflict. So it’s better to make a deal that address the problems the US has with China. That too will cause pain but less of it.
But China will lose much bigger than the US as they depend on the US consumer. It could also cause other countries to tariff China hard.
https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:aday7msfnpqba7psqpjq3pij/post/3li4ccziyc22p
Poul: “But China will lose much bigger than the US as they depend on the US consumer.”
Exports to the USA contributes less than 5% to China’s GDP.
So they regard is as “important”, but they don’t regard it as “indispensable”.
Poul: “It could also cause other countries to tariff China hard.”
“could”
And in other news: if pigs “could” fly then we’d all need to carry umbrellas.
Poul: “After the Japanese investors have sold their T-bills with a hair cut they now have a lot of US dollars in cash. Is the interest rate at a bank account better?”
You do know that the dollar is the global reserve currency, right?
So Japanese investors awash with “a lot of US dollars in cash” don’t need to park it in a back account: they can go out and buy goods and services that are either from other countries or reside in other countries.
Poul: “If the Japanese were to sell their USD for Yen the currency effect would be like adding additional tariffs on all Japanese goods.”
They don’t have to do that. They can use their USD to buy goods and services from other countries because (did I mention this? I think so) global trade is denominated in USD.
Poul: “Plus Japan would no longer be able to have a trade surplus with the US as that would again accumulate USD.”
Umm, “global reserve currency”, remember?
They can go out and conclude international trade deals with other counter-parties, and when it comes time to settle those foreign sellers will ask “Have you got dollars?”, to which that Japanese buyer will say “Boy, do I have dollars!”.
YR,
“So Japanese investors awash with “a lot of US dollars in cash” don’t need to park it in a back account: they can go out and buy goods and services that are either from other countries or reside in other countries.”
If Japan really needed all those goods and services that you think they’d go buy with extra US$s, they would already be buying them. Buying good and services you don’t need isn’t smart money management or good investment strategy.
Eric, you do understand the concept of the futures contract I assume. What the Japanese would do is put those US dollars into something they know they will need in the future from some source that requires the US Market (Middle East Oil, perhaps).
Let us now look, for example, at the current market for LNG sold from the US (we do use our oil wells for other things than petroleum). The Chinese have cancelled those purchases including on ships that are already on the water. There goes several billions of dollars that the US has to deal with since China no longer wants the product. China has already made concurrent arrangements for expanding supply from other sources such as Australia and Qatar. To whom the Chinese can pay from their current supply of US Treasuries. Do you think the Korean/Japan/ China regional cooperation might have some use in this.
Enjoy.
Master Slacker,
Yes I understand all of that. You are getting wrapped up in worst case scenario tactical concerns. I am looking at strategy. The US has the power – for the time being – to check most any economic moves by rebellious countries.
You want to go rouge (from a US perspective) and invest in some futures as opposed to US treasury notes. Go ahead, the US will mess up that market such that you lose.
It’s a global economics chess game and, if it comes down to it, the US can just overturn the table and militarily waste the resistance, whether via spooks doing spooky stuff that leads to violence via proxies (see Ukraine), or by direct attack by the US military.
Yes, yes, I know, ” Er um what about Vietnam and Afghanistan. US military lost LOL”, etc., etc. thin beard, keyboard warrior crap. Under MAGA the ROEs would be favorable to US victory. If the full power of the US military were to be unleashed in a focused and ruthless manner, no opponent would survive. Would Trump do that? Well, he’s crazy, right? Maybe he would, Something to think about. FAFO, as they say.
Here, Eric, because I know you don’t believe a word that I tell you:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/04/cea-chairman-steve-miran-hudson-institute-event-remarks/
That’s the White House explaining to you that Trump’s “tariff policy” is intended to be a cudgel to extort money from the rest of the world.
1. We tariff you, and you just quietly pay up.
2. You buy from us, even if you don’t need it
3. You buy from us, even if you don’t want it
4. You pay for our new factories. Up front.
5. F**k it, just pay straight into this Treasury account.
It’s all there, in black and white, and with no hint of a blush.
YR,
And here is the White House on Feb 1, 2025 saying that some of the tariffs are for the purpose of stemming the flow of illegal drugs and migrants.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/
And here is a White House statement containing multiple objectives of the Tariff program
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/
Like I said, adults like to accomplish multiple objectives with their action whenever possible.
Now, you can you apply your vast understanding of economics to argue that tariffs will fail to achieve some, or all, of those objectives, but you don’t get to make false statements concerning the objective(s), backed by deliberate highly selective filtering of evidence on your part (or at least on the part of your Chicom handlers); not if you want to be taken seriously.
You and Xi must try harder.
First off, credit where credit is due: congrats on actually going out to look for *evidence* rather than simply relying upon your own prejudices and misconceptions.
So, yeah, Bravo Eric.
But, with that said….. oh dear, oh dear.
You are arguing that tariffs can be imposed for many reasons. Which is, yep, a masterly statement of the obvious.
The EU has long-standing tariffs on US steel, and they clearly imposed that to protect their own steel industry.
Ditto the Vietnamese tariffs on American-made automobiles.
Ditto, of course, for those USA tariffs imposed by Trump in February 2025.
None were imposed for the purpose of extracting a trade concession from the party that is being tariffed.
But we aren’t talking about any of those.
The question before us today is this: what purpose was behind the tariffs that Trump announced on “Liberation Day”?
And I know the answer even if you are in denial, and I know that for a fact because a Very Important Trump Official explained it all to a group of Very Important People gathered together at a Very Important Institute.
(Hold that thought, because it is important)
Now, on to your second link which I have now read.
And what do we find?
We find an unattributed “fact sheet” written by an anonymous (but undoubtably junior) member of the White House Spin Team, addressed to Nobody In Particular but without a doubt written to spin, spin, spin this story in the way that is most advantageous to their boss Donald Trump.
You can see where I’m going with this, can’t you?
You and I have each pointed to a White House document that say diametrically opposite things.
But the big difference is that MY document is more credible than YOUR document by a ratio of (and I’m being generous here) somewhere around Infinity to Zero.
YOU anonymous White House author is an extremely junior person who is paid to shill for his boss, and given the audience he is addressing that shill has no incentive but to do what he is paid to do. Which is “shill”.
MY source is an official who actually resides in the decision-making layer of the Administration, and who is not addressing the Great Unwashed.
Nope. He is addressing a room full of VIPs at a very, very important Washington Think Tank.
So who’s source is the more credible?
I’ll give everyone three quesses, even though there are only two choices, because everyone – even Eric, if he is being honest – will get it on the first go.
YR,
“First off, credit where credit is due: congrats on actually going out to look for *evidence* rather than simply relying upon your own prejudices and misconceptions.
So, yeah, Bravo Eric.”
I have forgotten more about economics than you will ever understand about the subject matter. I see no reason on that topic – or some others – to go find and paste links. One can find someone saying anything on the internet.
If finding a supporting link is all that counts when making a point, then I can “prove” that the countries of the world are controlled by lizard people from outer space and that tapping on your forehead with a spoon three times a day will cure near-sightedness.
Furthermore, links usually lack the context necessary to fully understand what is being communicated in the link.
Eric: “I have forgotten more about economics than you will ever understand about the subject matter.”
I have seen absolutely nothing from you that would support such a claim.
Eric: “If Japan really needed all those goods and services that you think they’d go buy with extra US$s, they would already be buying them.”
An odd argument.
They couldn’t “already be buying them” when their money was tied up in US Treasury Securities, but when they sell those for dollars then their money is no tied up, and can now be spent.
I may well “really need” to buy myself a bottle of really nice imported whisky, but I’ll hold off until pay-day.
Why would you expect the Japanese to be any different.
Eric: “Buying good and services you don’t need isn’t smart money management or good investment strategy.”
Bingo! We have a winner.
I agree, Eric. That’s not what a country would do if they had a choice.
That’s why Trump is slapping tariffs on countries: he knows they won’t buy America-made goods of their own accord precisely because they don’t need that over-priced stuff.
So he’s attempting to MAKE them agree to do that against their better judgement.
Tariffs, Eric. The threat of tariffs will serve that purpose very, very nicely.
YR,
How many warehouses do you have to build to hold $50 billion worth of whiskey? Who will drink it all? How much interest does a bottle of whiskey sitting in a warehouse make?
1) Depends on how much each bottle is worth, Eric. But as the purchaser of that whisky rather than the seller of that whisky I, basically, couldn’t give a s**t.
2) I’m willing to put my hand up.
3) Zero, but as the purchaser of that whisky why would I care?
YR,
You are being obtuse.
If buying goods and services, or other countries’ instruments, were viable alternatives to US treasuries, then they would already be buying those things and not Ts because those things would be delivering a higher rate of return than Ts.
Rational self-interested parties will make the economic decision that provides the best return on investment given acceptable risk. That countries have chosen Ts over alternatives indicates that they have decided alternatives result in lower return and/or additional risk.
This is simple.
Which means that someone will have to be willing to take those dollars as payment. AND not demand a reduction in the dollar’s value by let’s say 80%. Why should foreigners accept a high dollar value? What do you think happens if Japan, China etc all sell dollars? It’s simple supply and demand.
Supply is high, demand is low. So the price most be… Care to guess?
The only solution is to buy US goods and services. In short “Buy American”. Turn Japan’s trade surpluse into a trade deficit fx $50 billion a year and in a few decades all Japan’s dollars will have been returned to the US.
Poul: “Turn Japan’s trade surpluse into a trade deficit fx $50 billion a year and in a few decades all Japan’s dollars will have been returned to the US.”
And what do you think that will do to the $US position as global reserve currency?
If it’s going to be useful in that role then dollars have to be “out there” lubricating the wheels of global trade, not “returned to the US”.
You are advocating the death of the dollar as the global reserve currency, and when that happens the USA will no longer be able to service its $37Trillion national debt.
The price of the USD as a reserve currency is the de-industrialization of the US. Why would you want that status?
Wall St. bankers love the reserve status as it makes them money but the price is paid by the rest of Americans.
So China, Russia, India you are welcome to take over the mantle as reserve currency.
Or what about the EU. The EU could do with a bit of de-industrialization.
Poul: “The price of the USD as a reserve currency is the de-industrialization of the US. Why would you want that status?”
I wouldn’t want that, and at Bretton Woods John Maynard Keynes argued strenuously that the Americans shouldn’t want that.
The Americans didn’t listen to him, and because of that deafness we are all where we are now i.e. we are ALL living in a world where the USA has been living way, way, way beyond its means because the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency allowed it to do that.
So we are now – right now – in a world where the USA has a $37Trillion national debt, and if the dollar ceases to be the global reserve currency then the USA has no easy way of servicing that debt.
Or, in short: because of the USA’s short-sightedness it is caught in a trap of its own making: if it allows the dollar to lose that status then the USA will default on that national debt, but if it maintains the dollar as the global reserve currency then that national debt will just keep growing bigger and bigger and bigger, and all they will have done is delay the moment of reckoning.
No good options, Poul. None at all.
Poul,
NAFTA was the giant sucking machine of deindustrialization, so was WTO admission of China
YR
I agree there is no mildly painful option but waiting until you end up in something like the Euro-crisis as the PIIGS countries did is worse than trying to make reforms now. As I have said before it took decades to end up in this mess and it will take decades to get out of it.
Here the Americans have the biggest problem as they right now have a hard time working together for the common weal. Will the presidents following Trump in the next 40-50 years keep a steady course towards re-balancing global trade. Who knows?
Poul: “I agree there is no mildly painful option”
The USA is out of options, Poul. It has already painted itself into a corner that it has no way out of.
Poul: “but waiting until you end up in something like the Euro-crisis as the PIIGS countries did is worse than trying to make reforms now.”
There are no “reforms” that can save the US economy, Poul. Not now, and not further down the road.
You appear to believe there is a way out of this mess and….. there isn’t.
Now or later, the USA either defaults on it national debt or it descends into the living hell of hyper-inflation.
That’s it. One or the other. Now or later.
Poul: “As I have said before it took decades to end up in this mess”
That part is true
Poul: “and it will take decades to get out of it”
That part is false.
There is no way for the USA to “get out of this”.
It either defaults on its national debt or it descends into hyper-inflation.
One or the other. Pick one.
There is no rowing this back. No way of slowly, slowly, slowly deflating that debt balloon.
Can’t be done, any more than it is possible to slowly “undo” a Ponzi Scheme: once a Ponzi Scheme is set up then it just grows and grows and grows until it explodes.
YR
Not the hyperinflation nonsense again.
Have you looked at what were the causes of hyperinflation events in Europe and Africa?
There is nothing that indicates that those factors are an issue in the US today or in the future.
Will we see higher inflation – YES
It’s an easy way to reduce you debt burden. That you think the US is doomed is an opinion I don’t share.
Reforms are the way forward. Trump is on the right track when it come to the trade issues. But IMO way off when it comes to taxes and insane government spending on the military. The US should pull back globally to a pure national denfense like pre-world war 2. Eliminate the global net work of bases and just focus on North and South America. Think a US military budget of 200 billion dollars not a 1000.
Tax cuts are also foolish. It goes to the rich who really don’t need it. Instead the money should be used on the sections of the American people who will be worse off due to the trade wars. Reduce their economic pain.
Poul,
YR is unable to understand that there are always at least two sides of an equation. China needs to run at trade surpluses. They also have big deficit spending. They are very vulnerable.
If the US cuts off cheap, lower quality, imports from China via tariffs and/or other mechanisms, then China has to find other markets in which to peddle their junk. Where would those markets be? The rest of Asia, S.E Asia doesn’t want China’s cheap stuff. Those countries are working hard to industrialize themselves. Cheap stuff made in China would undermine their own manufacturing efforts.
The US can soak up a little more inflation due to increased costs of goods that will revert to being made in the US as opposed to China and due to the increased cost of goods especially during the transition from China to domestic; not good, it’ll hurt, but we can do it + enjoy the bonus of the goods being higher quality.
China, though, cannot survive the hit of losing key markets. I say markets (plural) because it looks like other countries are willing to join the US’ anti-China economic campaign in exchange for avoiding the harshest of tariffs.
People like YR, enthralled with China and spiteful of the US, just cannot seem to understand that there is an existential economic war happening and that Trump has just implemented a masterful strategy to win it. All the lefties/TDS crowd can see is “mafia style shakedowns” and Trump being “crazy”. China was always the enemy and always the objective of the tariff war – with some side benefits of pressuring Mexico and Canada on illegal immigration and illegal drug cartel type issues.
To the lefties, the US perpetually on the verge of collapse and the communists, terrorists sponsors and Russians are partially on the verge of emerging triumphant. It’s all silly ignorant fantasy and propaganda as opposed to serious analysis.
Poul – great exposition. And the “hair cut” would likely be extensive. The Japanese wouldn’t like having to write down assets to that degree but they’d have to. Mark to market with a vengeance and the market dropping like a stone.
The Gasparino report that Trump had to pull back because of the threat of selling Treasuries may leave out of the reckoning a more serious consideration.
These two Reuters reports date from before April 2 but maybe the fact that Japan, China and South Korea were looking for a unified response to the tariffs had more effect than the threat of selling Treasury bonds:-
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-china-japan-agree-promote-regional-trade-trump-tariffs-loom-2025-03-30/
https://www.reuters.com/world/china-japan-south-korea-will-jointly-respond-us-tariffs-chinese-state-media-says-2025-03-31/
That response pre-dated the President’s April 2nd announcement of reciprocal tariffs but the timeline shows the US active on tariffs well before that April 2nd announcement so the three countries had plenty of time to get their act together.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/a-timeline-of-trumps-tariff-actions-so-far
……………………..
On the tariffs generally, something has to be done to get the US out of an increasingly disastrous financial and trade position so I hope they work. Not only is the status quo in the West driving more and more into poverty, the West is finding it increasingly difficult to live off looting other countries. I think the new US Administration recognises that even if it may not like it. We in Europe might take a little longer to get the message.
EO,
I saw some report today some of the Euros were planning to do the same thing and at the same time. Picking a fight with the rest of the world all at once is not good thinking.
I quite agree “something” should be done, but I suspect that will have to be, as the off-shoring was, a project of decades. As bi-partisan as the Cold War was. The old saying “If you want to go fast go alone, but if you want to go far bring people along.” applies.
There may be no call for desperation. Foreign mfgs have been moving some manufacturing back to the US for some time to hedge their bets. There’s a pretty good theory out there that the cheap labor in Asia will one day, probably sooner more than later, will also demand the ability to buy the things they make and won’t be forever satisfied with slave labor wages. The task can be accomplished with small changes, carefully made.
Unfortunately there would be no great hero to worship in the proper method. Not something one can sell to a Trump. His ego is off the charts. Have you seen the new dress code for cabinet officers?
https://deanblundell.substack.com/p/trump-is-now-mandating-his-cabinetloyalist
Best be careful with Russia and China. Either can whup your butt militarily and economically. We’ve just seen three years of Russia doing that and a similar outing with China would not be recommended. The degree of ignorance most in the West display about current US military and economic impotence is plain scary.
Most in the Beltway too, judging by the noises coming out of it. They all seem to be living in some sort of time warp there and most in the US electorate with them.
The Europoodles? They’ll come to heel whenever Trump cares to say “Here boy!” Yapping a lot but then, they always do.
On the subject of the article, I very much agree with you that “something must be done.” But do you have decades to do it in?
………………..
The lapel pins. If I didn’t know you better, Mr Logan, I’d think you were palming fake news off on me. But I suppose it’s true. Shame, really. There was a hope, with the new Administration, that Washington wouldn’t be the freak show it was in Biden’s time. Or as murderous. Live and learn, I suppose.
And for heaven’s sake tell them to keep their hands off Iran. Colonel Wilkerson fears that would go nuclear soon as you started losing. I know Washington’s crammed with loons just aching to go nuclear on Iran but it wouldn’t do, you know.
Mark Logan – a propos of reindustrialisation.
You have problems? Look at ours:-
Politics: a state of delusion
https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/front-page/politics-a-state-of-delusion/
On the state of steel making in England. It’s all there – defence implications, difficulty of competing with modernised plants abroad, energy costs, environmental considerations, amount of money needed to get up to date ….
It’s not as bad as that in the States, or at least one hopes it’s not. But if it’s anything at all like that, you have a long haul in front of you if you really are going to bring industry back home.
You may draw that article to Eric’s attention if you wish. Shan’t do it myself. Relations are strained between me and Eric at the moment. After “soggy”.
EO,
I don’t disagree at all with that article, but would add that expecting everything to be as it once was, which appears to be the vision of the Trumpists, would be unrealistic. Things will change but as long as it takes money and time to ship things long distances domestic production will happen once wages become at least somewhat comparable, and it’s a fair bet the people everywhere long for better conditions.
Tariffs, if they are not to start trade wars, must be used with well-considered thought and precision. A scalpel is one thing in the hands of a Christiaan Barnard, quite another in the hands of a 4 year old, however well-meaning the brat might be.
https://x.com/HotSpotHotSpot/status/1908526482684551480
^ Trump’s base trying to convince themselves losing money equals losing nothing but they hold fast to the idea that taxing the rich is economic holocaust. My aunt on my father’s side, a Republican voter, told me years ago giving money to the rich is better than welfare because the rich use the money to create jobs. She is a willing participant in her own theft on behalf of people who will be fine without her money. I hope Ohio farmers find new buyers after DOGE ended SNAP/food bank contracts. Slashing public library funding and reducing if not eliminating public school funding are budget considerations this year. So is building the Browns a new stadium. Even Cleveland can’t get behind supporting their loser team.
If Congress fails to raise the debt limit and pushes the U.S. into default, it would effectively violate the guarantee associated with treasuries, which would also lead to a major financial catastrophe.
When your fundamentals are s— the bond market dictates terms. It doesn’t matter who occupies the White House.
IMO a death spiral is a possibility with both parties playing chicken on the deficit. We can’t cut spending and hope GDP + immigration offsets the rest.
Today’s rally is irrational. We’re going to repeat this song and dance in 90 days, maybe sooner knowing Trump. U.S. stocks are, or were, a safe haven for capital thanks to imperfect regulatory oversight and low tolerance for corruption compared to the rest of the world.
It looks grim.
Lesly,
“HotSpot: Alternative News Media
Media & News Company
Joined December 2022
0 Following 34.2K Followers”
Another astroturf site. Thanks for sharing the fake news
Fred,
I would argue Russian-shill Tim Pool is a propagandist-for-hire but he gets a press pass. Poverty is wealth and fake news is real news, don’t you know?
Lesly,
Deflection. Put the littlest chicken hawk and vox day out there next time too so all bases are covered
TTG: “I find it hard to believe that somebody in Trump’s economic circle wasn’t well aware of this possibility.”
Does not surprise me in the slightest. There appears to be nobody in the Trump Administration who is capable of thinking more than one step ahead, and none of them give any thought whatsoever to the idea that in a high-stakes game the other side gets to play too.
Trump: If we do this, and this, and then poke there, Xi will lose.
Skeptic: And what if Xi makes his move…… hmmmm….. right about *there*?
Trump: Who?
TTG: “But I do believe that Trump may not have had a clue until it was explained to him today.”
Well, there will have been a lag time while the professionals explained it to the Trump big-wigs, because only then can the members of his inner-circle explain it to Trump.
The blind leading the blind ‘n’ all that….
YR,
You were a shill for Xi and CCP since your first comment on this blog. I had almost forgotten that until now. I read what Xi/CCP says about the tariffs, etc and it is exactly what you say, like exactly from a script.
And no I do not accept it is because Xi and you are just speaking to obvious facts and arriving at logical conclusions because you are both truth telling geniuses.
Neither you nor your hero/boss like to be reminded of aggressive (even hostile to the US) Chinese currency manipulations, increasing Chinese imperialism, unfavorable [to the US] Chinese regulations or the fact that the Chinese economy isn’t bullet proof and, in fact, has vulnerabilities that would be exploited by Trump’s machinations.
Eric: “You were a shill for Xi and CCP since your first comment on this blog. I had almost forgotten that until now. I read what Xi/CCP says about the tariffs, etc and it is exactly what you say, like exactly from a script.”
That’s the funny thing: if I think about this and come to a conclusion then I say what my conclusions are. If Xi thinks about this same issue and comes to the same conclusions then he is going to say the same things that I’ve said.
Good grief! It must be a conspiracy!
Or, maybe, it’s just that Xi and I understand this issue better than you do.
Shocking thought, I know, but there you have it.
Eric: “And no I do not accept it is because Xi and you are just speaking to obvious facts and arriving at logical conclusions because you are both truth telling geniuses.”
Then let me throw a third voice into the mix, Eric.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/04/cea-chairman-steve-miran-hudson-institute-event-remarks/
Straight from the horse’s mouth. Trump’s policies are nothing more – nor less – than an attempt to extort money from the rest of the world.
That’s all it is, and Steve Miran spells it out in five dots points that even the most simple-minded (obviously not you, of course) to comprehend.
Xi is right.
I am right.
You, not so much.
YR,
If that is your take-away from the words at the link you posted, then you were definitely reading it through the squinty lenses of your chicom approved kookoo glasses.
Also, as I said previously, actions can be designed to result in more than one desired result. Sometimes one of the desired results is emphasized in a statement and, at other times, a different desired result.
Addendum – the White House has officially stated many objectives re; tariffs implementation. Everything from abating illegal drugs, like fentanyl, to illegal immigration, to stimulating US manufacturing.
It’s all on the white house site. You’re either a lazy or dishonest discussion participant with your highly selective presentation of “evidence”.
Eric: “If that is your take-away from the words at the link you posted,”
I will now invite every other person who is reading this thread to go and read Miran’s speech, here:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/04/cea-chairman-steve-miran-hudson-institute-event-remarks/
and decide for themselves if I have accurately summarized his pitch to the Hudson Institute.
Which is, again, this:
1) The USA is in a position of global dominance via its military might
2) That position is darn expensive and, heck, the USA is struggling to maintain it.
3) So everyone else needs to pay Washington for the privilege of being lorded over by the US military.
Miran even lists a helpful five-point plan by which those payments can be made.
Anyone else – other than Eric, of course – care to argue that this isn’t an accurate summarization of the “Miran Doctrine”?
Eric: “Sometimes one of the desired results is emphasized in a statement and, at other times, a different desired result.”
Riiiiiiiiiight. That sounds suspiciously like you are arguing that nothing that the White House says actually matters, since what they say is tailored to the moment.
Sure, I agree. But wearing (as I am wont to do) my scientist’s hat I’d suggest that this means that you need to pay attention to what the Trump Administration DOES, rather than what the Trump Administration SAYS.
Fine, I’m comfortable with that.
Because if YOU are right then the Trump Administration will take a very William McKinley view of tariffs: determine the level of tariff that will result in a surge in US production, and then stick with that tariff at that level until the desired uptick in US production is achieved.
No “negotiations”, because ….. why should they?
No “reciprocity” because…. why should they?
No “adjustments” because…. why should they?
But if I am right and the tariffs are imposed as a stick to extort a trade concessions then Trump – axiomatically – will use tariffs in a “carrot and stick” play.
The level of tariffs is a moveable feast that will be adjusted up and down and left and right until the other side agrees to that trade concession, at which point the tariffs go “poof!” and disappear in a puff of smoke.
No need to wave press-releases at each other: one or the other of those predictions will come to pass, and which one happens will tell us who is right and who is deluding themselves.
I have to say it, Eric, it’s not looking too good for your claim.
YR,
Your comment has not aged well and it’s only been a few days. China is asking for negotiations because they being hurt, badly. Europe has come to kiss Trump’s ring as have SE Asian countries.
In the world of money and power, it is better to be feared than loved. Received respect comes from welding superior strength coupled with the will to use it, ruthlessly.
The tariff debate is interesting, Eric, also important, but as I read here and elsewhere the debate on the subject, and see what our respective sets of politicians in Washington, Berlin/Brussels and Westminster have to say on it, I’m getting a warning signal flashing bright red.
We should refuse to be drawn into Sinophobia in 2025 just as some of us refused to be drawn into Russophobia in 2022. Especially since the politicians of the West, who have screwed up mightily running their own countries, know that the only way of avoiding well-deserved condemnation for the mess they’ve made is to get us all howling at some imagined outside enemy.
Your country’s a walking disaster and not because of the Russians or the Chinese. Because that’s what you’ve made of it. What’s supposed to be one of the wealthiest and most advanced countries in the world has people living under bridges and significant numbers more heading that way. You can’t even look after your own properly. All you’re good for is dropping bombs on civilians elsewhere and threatening to drop more. That’s what today’s US of A amounts to, that and the never ending macho bragging.
My own country’s even worse. Shamefully so. The European countries are in much the same case. The Western electorates are passengers on a sinking ship, screaming hysterically at whatever imagined threat on the horizon they’re told to scream at whilst the untended leaks get ever worse.
Just what the politicians want. Most of them have lifeboats anyway. Most of the rest of us don’t. Ever stopped to think you’re being taken for a ride?
EO,
Sinophobia and Russophobia are two completely different things. Deeming them similar is superficial in the extreme. It’s not paranoia if they really are out to get you, which is demonstrably the case with the damn Chinese, but not so much with Russia; as far as the English speaking world is concerned. If I were Eastern European or, obviously, Ukrainian, I would have a different opinion about the threat posed by Russia. However, I’m not. So I don’t care.
Speaking of Eastern Europeans, they, quite correctly, are also, what you would call, islamophobic. Your soggy island and “the continent” has no common sense in that regard, but has a hard on for Russia. Bizarre.
Eric! It’s not soggy! Well, not all of it.
Does get a little damp here sometimes. Grant you that.
Welcome To Mara Largo Mark Zukerberg,,,META Stock..Was UP 15 Percent
On the Planned Market Move,,Put That in the Bank,, So now Zukerberk and Elon
Can Hook Up Again..All Zoned in..AI..Cyber..The Two Most Connected ALIEN
Brains..In The World..Out Thinking..Them All…..
JIM
Jim,
How did Bill Gates do?
Having perused the comments here I have a couple thoughts:
The comment that we are the reserve currency is valid, and what that means more than anything else is that we are paramount above all others, no once can really have creditworthiness if we don’t have credit worthiness. I do think there is some selling of us assets on a misguided idea that we are less safe now, but I think the vast majority of the selling is for different reasons.
First let’s look at foreign selling, to be clear until the TIC data is released this is mostly speculation, but there has been wide reports of selling so let’s take it as a given. If we look at who owns treasuries it’s counties that have positive trade balances with us (China and oil exporters) and Japan who has an economy built around massive financial institutions and pensions for its aging population. From chinas perspective, if the balance is likely to shrink then selling some ust to basically plug that gap (where the excess would go into ust) makes sense.
Additionally there has been a trade in the market called a basis trade which doesn’t really matter but it has blown up somewhat causing ppl to sell ust.
And finally and maybe most importantly we have the impact of the tariffs themselves, we had a backdrop where inflation had been trending lower and the fed and others were poised to lower interest rates this year, if tariffs prove inflationary then the fed and others would have less room if any to lower rates, which was what was priced in, hence the somewhat violent reversal in terms of higher interest rates. There’s obviously a lot going on here and this is one of the wilder and more truly uncertain times in my market career.
Landis – Brics? Do you reckon the two trade blocs will become increasingly isolated from each other?
We’ve attempted to force Russia – literally – out of the Western trading bloc. How many other countries are going to reckon they’ll be better off in a more stable bloc and therefore less vulnerable to the disruption or predation that can occur in ours?
This Kind of Global Economic Squeeze….Currency Manipulation..
Isolationism….Blockades…Of Japan..The Destruction of the German Mark…The Sinking of the Wrong Ship..are ALL ,The
Name Calling..Are ALL…The factors,….That Started World
War Two…Its Happening Now..Even More Dramatic..
With More Powerful Eges…And Weapon Systems..and Technology…I Wish Patrick Lang Was still Alive to Comment
JIM
I dont think so, I think China will be pushed more, but China needs the trade, so I think ultimately its more about price and quantity than trading at all. If you look at the south asia component of brics (ie India) you can see that the desire is to be in between both worlds and act on both global south systems and western systems.
I think its absolutely true that Russia and the global south have devloped parrallel systems as they were pushed off of Western ones (ie SWIFT). BUT if you look at the early negotiations with Russia to end the Ukraine war, part of their requests are to be reconnected to western systems. I think this is more likely the path for the medium term future, open trade avenues but at higher cost. But yes their creation of parrallel systems (several yrs ag0 at this point) I think does make Russia and China more resilient.
Landis,
You’re probably right.
It is the fantasy of deranged, immature, antisocial leftists that BRICS is going to destroy the US and the West. That’s all it is.
Eric: “It is the fantasy of deranged, immature, antisocial leftists that BRICS is going to destroy the US and the West”
BRICS was created so that its member states can provide each other with some mutual defense against economic warfare directed against them.
BRICS was not created as a means by which its member states could “destroy the US and the West”.
YR,
As Col Lang liked to remind everyone, there are no purely “defensive” weapons. Anything tech or system that is powerful enough to “defend” is also powerful enough to be used on the offensive.
Landis Have You Seen The Markets This Morning..
Have You Seen about China and The Panama
Canal Today The Threats continue. Iran Trump..?
JIM
Landis – seems heartless to focus on such things as trade and economics when casualties are running at a level not seen in Europe for eighty years: but the sanctions war is always there in the background. It’s a war we lost and many of the Western politicians still don’t grasp how.
Fact is, when considering the sanctions war our Western politicians fail to understand that there are some sanctions that have been beneficial to the Russian economy. The food sanctions after 2014, for instance, helped to make the Russian food industry more self-sufficient. That move to self-sufficiency was accelerated in many other fields after 2022. Putin told a meeting of industrialists recently that they’d do well to get used to those types of sanctions since they could be long-lasting. Since the EU is now on its sixteenth sanctions package and still adding to that package, that warning to the Russian industrialists was realistic.
The mistake we made in 2022 was that we grossly underestimated the Russian industrial base. There was much talk of it being less significant than the Belgian whereas in reality the Russian industrial base was in many respects stronger than that of the entire West put together. A weak country like Syria can be and was destroyed by Western sanctions. But for Russia, a country with an already strong economy, many of the trade sanctions were not destructive. On the contrary, they had the effect of “bringing industry back home” in the fields in which the Russians had previously relied on the West.
As Trump’s finding out at present, “bringing industry back home” is tricky and can initially be unpopular with consumers. In normal circumstances a forced repatriation of industry would only be possible in a strongly dirigiste economy, and difficult even then. To have it done by outside forces, and that in the context of a wider conflict that engaged Russian patriotism, was something of a free gift to the Russians. We’ve strengthened their industry at the cost of our own and the effect for them was mostly beneficial. It’s also led to an investment boom as capital is repatriated for fear it will be seized in the West.
But that’s only the trade sanctions. We had a better chance with the financial sanctions in 2022. The hope of wrecking the Russian banking system with a short sharp shock, the hope that was expressed in Biden’s Warsaw speech and in other speeches by Western politicians in those early days, was more realistic.
I’d guess it was worry about that short sharp shock that held the Putin administration back when they were considering whether to go in and rescue the Donbass. However well-prepared a country might be, having its banking system thrown into turmoil isn’t something any responsible administration would want to risk and in the run up to February 2022 we can see Putin casting around attempting to avoid that risk.
In the event they had to confront that risk head on if they were to do anything useful for the Donbass. “They’re going to sanction us whatever we do so we’re going in” was what Putin said at the time, almost in as many words. And in they went.
We in the West focus on the military evolutions from that time since. Waste of time – it was apparent from the start that the military war could only possibly end one way. We failed to focus on what really mattered: the attempt to wreck the Russian economy and banking system.
I’ve always argued that the East/West conflict that was the Ukrainian war was not won by Mr Gerasimov and Mr Shoigu. It was won by Elvira Nabiullina and Mr Siluanov, people most of the war buffs have never heard of but the people who won the war for Russia. Not that the war buffs ever grasped what Gerasimov and Shoigu were up to either, but that’s a different matter.
The economic and financial war won, and the military conflict drawing to its inevitable end, why after all this time are the Russians still wanting sanctions lifted?
I’d guess it’s the secondary effect of those sanctions that are still inconvenient. They impede some of the trade between Russia and the other countries – the EU still holding up grain shipments to Africa for instance. And they impede trade between the Brics countries or countries that are considering joining Brics. That’s a nuisance the Russians want out of the way.
So the Russians want those particular sanctions gone. To get that, Dmitriev’s holding out as a carrot to Witkoff such inducements as the chance of American corporations getting back into Russian exploitation of their resources; but we’ll have to wait to see whether that comes to anything.
I do hope that you’ll continue to report back on the view from the trading desks. Masses of surmise floating around of course, but it’s seldom that someone who trades in the market breaks cover and reports what’s really happening at the sharp end
EO,
The resiliency of the Russian economy is remarkable. Putin and his economic advisors did a good job of preparing the country financially for a war that proved to last far longer than anyone thought it would. Nabiullina has been a miracle worker for three years, but even she seems major problems ahead.
The industrial base had massive reserves of war material to work with, but those reserves are dwindling. What’s left either can’t be refurbished or required major effort and time to refurbish. T-80s can no longer be repaired since critical components were made in Ukraine. Russia still can’t make or acquire quality bearings for her railroads. China can’t or won’t help her friend without limits beyond minimal efforts.
Russian industry is not so much self-sufficient, as it was in Soviet days, as it is resourceful. It is resourceful in finding ways to smuggle in what it needs. EU efforts to improve sanctions is really aimed at plugging up those smuggling holes. It has only recently made modest efforts to shut down Russia’s ghost fleet. US sanctions, recently extended by Trump, are doing a lot in this regard. Russia won’t collapse and she certainly can feed herself, but she’s finding it difficult to fulfill her war aims without some kind of outside assistance. She is running up against Ukrainian resilience.
Hannity Had Ambassador Steve Witkoff On For a
Long Interview, He Just Got Back From Going to Russia
For A Meeting With PUTIN..and His Two Top devisers
all about What PUTIN Wanted and Woulld Negoiate
Go Find he Video if Yoy Want The Real Data..
JIM
In other News Gathered….
NBC News Published Excellent
8 Hours’Ago, Headlined Russia And Belarus
Ready To Act over European escalation
around Ukraine, Kremlin Spy Chief Says.
Sergei Naryshkin…told State Media
Cina and Viet Nam Signed a Strong Anti American Policy Agreement..
The Commander Of the American Base Was
Fired by The Pentagon The Recent Visit There
JIM
Fred…BINGO On Bill…The Triad Is complete The Video of Bill Gates .
Steve Ballmer…And Satya Nadella Puts The AI Thinking On The Table..
JIM
other News I saw on CNN Yesterday. Said That Elon Musk and Navarro
Were In Strong Disagreement Over Policy.. No Suprise There. And
POTUS Trump Will Always Go With Musk And His Money and
All Musk Has…
BTW…I No Longer Like Robert Kennedy..In Government..Hes TOO
Extreme..And Radical For Me…
JIM
Jim,
Yesterday I heard Trump described as a coin operated President. give him money and you’ll get something out of him.
Biden must be crying today as he was only “10% for the big guy” after the family got their share.
Jim T –
Bobby Junior is shutting down research on DIFF vaccines.
Leith,
Hopefully research into dementia treatment continues.
Agreed. Plus Adderall and Ketamine addiction.
Leith…Thanks I Didn’t Know That ,, But Hès
Destroying Many Other … Areas on Health Care.,
Research And critical And Important Life Saving
Vaccines And Peoples Choices For Diets …Life
Style…They Comfortable With. And Should Have
In our Free Society..Without This Type of Tyranny
Bobby Jrs a Democrat …Who have a Historic ..
HIGH…BODY COUNT .So SST,,,,,
JIM
Jim –
Bobby Junior ran as an Independent. He got multimillion $ donations from MAGA billionaires to be a spoiler. His tin-foil-hat politics are neither Left nor Right.
LEITH….I Suspect Bobby Jr.. Ran as An Independent…Because He Saw an Opportunely
To Attract Trump..Who Saw it as An
Moment To Get The Kennedy,,,Name,,Into THe White House,,and His Ticket,,Bobby Jr..is a Life
Long Democrat…..Who is An Infiltrator,,And
Opportunist…Just Like Zukerberg..Elon..and
Others Have Done,,To Promote Thier Own
Agenda…And make MONEY..
JIM
Jim T –
You’re right that Trump snapped Bobby Junior up for the Kennedy name. But the Democrats had been shunning him and avoiding him like the plague 20 years before that because of his strange lifestyle and his whacko conspiracy theories.
The Kennedy family deep-sixed him also – heroin conviction, sexual assault on babysitter, eating roadkill dogs, wild ride with a chain-sawed whale skull, etc, etc.
What drove him bonkers – trichinosis brain worms? – drug use? – murder of his father & uncle when he was a child? Does not matter, he’s now an undeniable lunatic. And unfortunately for America’s children he is now in charge of our nation’s public health.
Too bad, years ago when Bobby Junior still had some sanity he was an environmentalist and a Democratic Asst DA in Manhattan.
lieth…..
Regarding Discussion About the
Mental condition. Of Kennedy….
It Reminded of another celebrity,,
Mr. Howard Hughs Who also,,
It Late Life. Developed It a level’
Of Paranoia And Anxiety…And went
into Seclusion. And Isolation.
.
Where. Bobby Jj. Another Celebrity.
Developed the Same anxiety..And Paeonia
But Bobby … Expressed His. With.
Anger. Physical Aggression. and Public
Social Actions..As a Celebrity. He Got Media
Attention…on.. What ARE Common Mental
Health Diseases. Affecting Thousands of
People. Across Americas Society.. and THAT
should be The Public and Medias ,,FOCUS.
Proper…Spending On Recovery and Priority
Spending…By ALL Agency’s. Federal. And
And State.
JIM
Regardless of all the speculating, nobody knows what the results will be and that includes the boneheads who started it. Pax Americana is and has been very important, both for security and economics. Now Trump is trying to end it and nobody knows what will replace it. China is in a good position to take advantage of future developments in technology. They are now also getting more connections globally, due to Trump’s bumbling. But they also are facing some internal problems that will impact their way forward. The worst outcome is everybody seeking the lowest common denominator and arriving there and getting stuck.
TTG – off the subject so may not be appropriate here. Hope it’s nevertheless relevant to submit a link to Helmer.
Just been flogging through a beautifully referenced analysis by him. Flogging through is the right term because there are piles of cross references to chase up. It’s on the American/Russian peace negotiations – if one can term them that.
At the very end Helmer unexpectedly comes up with a quote. From an unnamed source. Could just be saying “This is what will happen if the war continues.” Could be saying “This is what’s going to happen”. However we take it, Helmer doesn’t make stuff up. It’s an odd quote in that it makes no direct reference to the oblasts already part of Russia. My paragraphing.
A well-informed source in Moscow says that Trump and his subordinates have been surprised by the Russian terms for ending the war.
“The Russians have told Americans they will have Odessa and a land corridor to Moldova. They have offered ports on Dnieper River for access to the sea for the Ukrainians. There has been no demand about Nord Stream. Money is being discussed on the sidelines but not in the main talks.
In the main room [in Riyadh on February 18] Lavrov and Ushakov brought no papers and asked Americans [Rubio and Waltz] to dust off the December 2021 treaty draft.
The Russian positions shocked the Americans. They were told the Ukraine will be demilitarized and its forces will be turned into paramilitary and police. The Americans were also surprised how little Russians cared about Zelensky or his British and Europeans backers.
The Americans were told there will be no Ukrainian paramilitary force east of the Dnieper – only police. A new Russian demand was tabled for autonomy of eight Ukrainian oblasts, with Kiev army forces removed.
In general, the Russians propose turning the Ukraine into a genuinely federal structure with provisions that Banderites can never take power in Kiev and that the central forces will be limited in their capabilities, supplementing the police if and when Banderites take to the streets. The main purpose of any such force will be de-nazification and keeping it that way.
There are demands also about the Orthodox Church in Ukraine.”
https://johnhelmer.net/the-three-steps-which-way-is-forward-which-way-is-backward-in-russias-war-fighting-peace-negotiating-strategy/
If that unnamed source is reliable, this is more than was required by the Russians in late 2021, in Putin’s 24th February 2022 terms, at Istanbul, or in Putin’s June 2024 speech to the Foreign Office Officials. Though one could argue that it was implicit in Russian aims from 2014 on. There are some blog posts from Patrick Armstrong from around that time predicting roughly that outcome though I doubt Patrick Armstrong thought back then it would take so long and be so hard a road.
Not much reference to the Europeans and no reference to the Europeans removing their sanctions. Removal of all sanctions was a condition in the June 2024 speech to the FO officials so if the “well-informed source” was correct it’s likely the Russians have now written the Europeans off. Also no reference to North Stream, which indicates the same, though there have been statements from both Denmark and some German politicians indicating some Europeans at least are hoping for the restoration of supply through NS2.
According to what was said at the latest Ramstein conference and to what’s been said by Pistorius the Europeans are still pouring what arms they have into Ukraine (but not Taurus!) and promising substantial financial support. So I expect the Russians are correct in writing the Europeans off. For good? If so it’s going to be a long hard Cold War II for us Europeans.
As for the US, we can only wait to see which way the cat jumps in Washington. If Trump does impose further sanctions on Russia as threatened, that puts the US back in the European camp. If he writes off his losses and walks away, that puts him at odds with the Europeans but gives him a good chance of restoring normal relations with the RF. He’s soon going to have to decide whether keeping a foot in both camps is practical politics.
EO,
Sounds like the Russians figure they are winning the war and will dictate terms. Germany certainly needs the pipeline more than Russia, especially with the low oil prices in the global market now. Sure leads one to ask who was actually behind the op rather than just accept the blame America.
“In the main room [in Riyadh on February 18] Lavrov and Ushakov brought no papers and asked Americans [Rubio and Waltz] to dust off the December 2021 treaty draft.”
Ouch! If true then that really is a dismissive attitude towards the USA.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/technology/us-excludes-smartphones-computers-from-trump-s-reciprocal-tariffs/ar-AA1CNNvj
It was the bond vigilantes forcing Trump to pause the tariffs. Now, I wonder who was forcing Trump to scale back the tariffs further?
My view it’s based on pragmatic policies. Reduce the effects which are too painful for the US in the short term.
China has done something similar.
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/chinas-new-semiconductor-rule-spares-taiwan-fabs-punishes-intel-globalfoundries-and-texas-instruments
“Today, the China Semiconductor Industry Association published an urgent notice regarding the rules for determining the ‘country of origin’ of semiconductor products shipped to China. As it turns out, the location where the wafer was processed is deemed the ‘country of origin,’ no matter where the chip was developed or packaged, according to a CSIA document published in WeChat and republished by various analysts. The rule applies to both packaged and unpackaged semiconductors.
Because China deems Taiwan its own territory, chips fabricated by TSMC, Micron, UMC, Vanguard, and other chipmakers in Taiwan will be exempt from punitive 125% import duties imposed on products from then U.S. even though virtually all contemporary chips from companies like AMD, Broadcom, Intel, Nvidia, Micron, and Qualcomm are developed in America and are sold by U.S.-based company. “
I wonder who these bond vigilantes are (or what that means!) I dont think they forced Trump to do anything, its just a narrative that helps them sleep at night. I dont think Trump thinks he is losing here, and I think if you looked at the initial tariff numbers you had to know some concession was incoming, or we were in for total destruction.
funny to read & observe here & around the world the bend-over-backwards efforts of the smartest guys in the room to explain / justify / rationalize the damage that Nasty & his dim-witted Band of Bros have managed to inflict upon practically everyone on the planet (are there still Amazon tribes pretending to enjoy a stable existence?). what a pleasant pastime… applying logic & reason where a nincompoop urge prevails.
it will remain this way until the regime fails spectacularly. could be this summer (more awesome stupidity + an externality to light it up nice & bright), or the midterms:
Official Line; “remember the 173 Executive Orders?”
Chorus; “sure do, by golly!”
OL; “well, they’re forgotten…”
C; “oh, ok, so, uh… what’s His Nastiness going to do?”
OL; “play w/ sticks & balls… even more.”
C; “great! then what do WE do!?
OL; “sing a song! & laugh out loud!”
https://youtu.be/nRc0yaMW7Mw
https://youtu.be/PFe4kGfVJQM
TTG, please let me ask a totally off-the-wall question:
Do you, or does anyone else, know if Colonel Lang and Phil Giraldi knew each other?
I have no particular reason for asking that question, but am just curious.
Keith Harbaugh,
I’m almost positive they did, but I’m not certain.
A reverse tariff cascade is starting to run back upstream. Ohio just lost 800 jobs when a Chillicothe paper mill (established in 1817 and operational for over 200 years) had to shut down due to tariffs. “Pixelle paper announced the closing to ‘better align our resources’ at a time retaliatory tariffs could increase operating costs 10-15%. Closing the paper mill will cost the local economy up to $230-245 million annually.”
Alabama is also being hit hard with layoffs induced by Trump tariffs. Which is why Trump caved and paused autoparts tariffs when four angry Alabama congressmen read him the riot act. Toyota and Honda factories, Grede foundry, WKW auto parts, etc.
In Michigan: GM is laying off 200 workers. Stellantis truck works laying off 1000.
Cargill, Boeing, Exxon & Amazon are cutting jobs. Plus Google, Microsoft, Meta, and many others.
Donald’s depression.
Oh dear Leith. Is that enterprises making use of the tariff turmoil to ditch unprofitable business? Or does it mean business confidence generally has received a blow? Either way, it’s a terrible advert for “bring industry back home”.
Sleboda says Trump has been set on McKinley since the 1980’s and gives examples to prove it. But McKinley was dead against reciprocal tariffs of the sort talked about here. In any case Bessent is now saying that the main purpose is to get at China. If that’s really the case then this is tariffs being used for trade war rather than being used as they should be used*.
Whether Trump achieves his purpose or not, this is an illegitimate use of tariffs. McKinley was clear about that. Tariffs and the other trade barriers should be used solely for the purpose of levelling the playing field, and very carefully at that. They should not be used for the purposes of attack. Then they become just another form of sanctions.
…………………………….
*Notes
1. Bessent:-
“U.S. Plans to Use Tariff Negotiations to Isolate China”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wants trading partners to limit China’s involvement in their economies in exchange for concessions on reciprocal tariffs”
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/u-s-plans-to-use-tariff-negotiations-to-isolate-china-177d1528
2. Trump:-
Trump is quoted as saying ““The ball is in China’s court. China needs to make a deal with us. We may want countries to choose between us and China.”
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/r1wJwuxA688
Leith,
If you think that’s bad, you should see what is happening to Chinese tech producers. It’s a slaughter. And China is now asking to negotiate.
It’s a fight, a war, really. Even the victor will take casualties. Doing nothing would have resulted in far worse permanent destruction of the US economy.
China has given Trump a face-saving exit.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/donald-trump-tariffs-news-live-updates-xi-jinging-reciprocal-tariffs-us-stock-market-china-canada-india-uk-import-taxes/liveblog/120326091.cms
“China said on Thursday that it is engaged in “working-level communication” with the United States to address the ongoing stalemate in their escalating tariff dispute. However, it emphasized that the responsibility to resolve the issue lies with the one who initiated it. Responding to US President Donald Trump’s comment that “the ball is in China’s court” and that Beijing needs to strike a deal, Chinese commerce ministry spokesperson He Yongqian cited a proverb, saying, “The person who tied the bell must be the one to untie it,” implying the US should take the lead in resolving the impasse.”
TonyL,
EU doubles down and dumps treasuries to try and tank the market. Did you notice these tariff announcements all came after the last of the synthetic LIBOR contracts all expired? Trump drew out all the opponents of the US. The EU was and is the target and they are in deep trouble.
Fred –
Sorry I missed National Submarine Day a week ago: https://themilitaryreadingroom.substack.com/p/national-submarine-day-books-movies-orca
I’ll have to re-watch ‘Das Boot’ & ‘Red October’. Hope you are staying silent and deadly.
Fred,
“EU doubles down and dumps treasuries to try and tank the market.”
Is this a rumor from somewhere? Do you have any link? I’m not aware that EU is dumping US Treasury.
“Trump drew out all the opponents of the US.”
You’re giving Trump too much credit. I don’t think he was even aware of the consequences of his tariffs.
TonyL,
Just what entities in the EU were selling them……
The consequenses of the tariffs: Most nations accepted an immediate increase from <3% to 10%. The EU and Canada announced retaliations. It even made CNN