The inflation rate will kill the Democrats in November

“The annual inflation rate for the United States is 7.5% for the 12 months ended January 2022 — the highest since February 1982 and after rising 7.0% previously, according to U.S. Labor Department data published February 10. The next inflation update is scheduled for release on March 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET. It will offer the rate of inflation over the 12 months ended February 2022.”

Comment: The policies of the Biden Administration seem designed to beggar the American people. Severe restrictions have been imposed on the economy through regulation and denial of permitting in the energy business. All this in the pursuit of zero net carbon emissions and safety for Bambi and his mommy. And now we will have the blowback effect of well-deserved sanctions inflicted on Russia for her aggression in Ukraine.

Prices on everything will continue to rise to create a perfect political storm for those who largely created the inflation.

It couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of politically suicidal people. pl

Current US Inflation Rates: 2000-2022 | US Inflation Calculator

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53 Responses to The inflation rate will kill the Democrats in November

  1. southpoint says:

    The “foreign policy expert” Biden? This is just today….

    MbS in the Atlantic -“Let’s go Brandon!”

    China on Taiwan today: “Let’s go Brandon!”

    Poland on a no fly zone- “Let’s go Brandon!”

    Germany on Russian energy ban – “Let’s go Brandon!”

  2. TV says:

    “It couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of politically suicidal people.”
    And America haters all.

  3. Mark Gaughan says:

    “well deserved sanctions inflicted on Russia”
    The US caused this. All the US would have had to do was recognize Russia’s security concerns and negotiate a settlement with them. The US should have gotten the Ukraine to honor the Minsk agreement. madness

    • Pat Lang says:

      Mark Gaughan
      I agree with that, but it does not excuse Russia’s effort to destroy another country. I say that in the full knolwedge of what we did to Iraq. I resisted that as much as I could.

      • southpoint says:

        Iraq? Libya, Yemen, Syria, Afghanistan…the list is long. We can sit and justify these invasions all day long but to those impacted our words are those of a bully.

        Biden is such a piece of jello that the countries that have watched our actions are fed up. Biden is a foreign policy expert? He’s is doing more to destroy US hegemony than any President in our lifetime.

        All this was bandied about after his disastrous Afghanistan debacle…and Biden’s detractors were right.

      • Cerena says:

        Dear Colonel, Russia had no desire to “destroy” Ukraine.
        All Russia wanted were normal trade relationships with the US and the EU. It was the 2014 ziocon coup in Kiev that had produced a civil war on Russian borders. Currently, Russia is doing the de-Nazification of Ukraine.
        Russian waited for eight years for the implementation of Minsk I and Minsk II. 15 thousand people died.
        The US administration came out as a collaborator with Banderites (self-proclaimed Nazis). What are we teaching our children – moral relativism? What is going to be said at the Arlington Memorial this May?

      • Lysias says:

        After Zelensky said in a speech at the Munich Security Conference on Feb. 19 (with Kamala Harris in attendance) that Ukraine was going to get nuclear weapons, an immediate Russian response was required. That was as much of a threat to Russia as Soviet missiles on Cuba were to the U.S. in 1962.

  4. EoL says:

    The Biden administration is now running around trying to get Iran and Venezuela to alleviate the upcoming high energy prices. It seems like the political response to the Russian crisis was not properly understood from an economics perspective (?)

    Here are a list of commodities in which Russia plays an important role
    https://www.moonofalabama.org/12i/ukrop15.jpg

    and here is the current price of oil :
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-prices-us-uk-russia-crude-imports-ban-commodities-natural-gas-gold-101914984.html

    Iran has already joined Russia’s side on demanding guarantees for Russia’s trade interests (sanctioned) under the JPOA, and neverminf that Russia is a signatory party. Here is a link for that
    https://en.mehrnews.com/news/184540/Russia-demands-US-guarantees-for-Moscow-Tehran-ties

    And now officials are flying to Venezuela (Who had its gold confiscated by the U.S) to find a workaround
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/05/world/americas/venezuela-russia-usa.html

    But overall, the weaponisation of the dollar which we have seen increasing in the last years (Russia, Venezuela, Iran, and now plutocrats too), means that the “safe-heaven” of the dollar and assets in western countries will be seriously be put to doubt into the future. All those dollars will have to return somewhere once alternatives are around, and you can be sure that China is working on an an alternative. I mean, Tel Aviv and Dubai are already angling for a slice of the international banking pie which the west has foregone (by excluding itself from oil and commodities trading from Russia), so I foresee just further inflation down the road.

    • Barbara Ann says:

      EoL

      “It seems like the political response to the Russian crisis was not properly understood from an economics perspective (?)”

      First strike capability in an all out sanctions/economic war ought to be governed by commonly understood rules analogous to the MAD doctrine. I think this fact is just starting to dawn of the folk who launched that first strike with the extreme sanctions on Russia. How dismally predictable.

    • Poul says:

      The problem is that you don’t have an alternative to dollar assets. The amounts are too large.

      Euros & Yen are not an option as they are American economic vassals. You may be able to place the money in Renminbi but that would have an adverse effect on China’s exchange rate. Would the Chinese like that? And such actions would concentrate the sanction risks in China. Not eliminated them.

      Also there are limits on what you can invest in in China. Foreign land ownership is not permitted. SOE fill a large part of the economy and the state bond market is small compared to the US (ca 4,000 billion dollars).

      You’re left with investing in high-risk emerging markets. And their combined economies are too small to absorb the amounts which would have to be moved from dollars into other currencies.

  5. Fred says:

    Breaking the American people, especially middle class and small business owners, is exactly what these people want to do.

    Inflation is a lot higher than 7.5%. Gas is already up an additional 5% here in less than 3 days. Millionaires and limousine liberals will not be affected, or so they think. It will take a decade to reverse the damage, if we can. At least the GOP is unified in their Ukrainian flag lapel pin wearing. And no mean tweets, can’t forget that.

  6. Eric Newhill says:

    The inflation rate in the graph, that we are currently experiencing, is fallout from the Covid policies. We have yet to be hit with additional inflation from our reaction to the Russia/UKR situation, but it’s on the way and it will be very bad. I do not see how the middle class is going to make it through this. They’re going to be priced out of everything essential, from housing to food to transportation. Yes, that should kill the Democrats.

    ……Should kill the democrats. I’ve been doing a little consulting/acting as a sounding board for some groups looking at fraud in the 2020 election. I am now thoroughly convinced that various forms of systematic targeted fraud took place and on a scale that definitely threw the election to Biden as well as some down ballot democrats (that said, there was also some fraud that favored down ballot Rs). The evidence is solid, IMO. The media has, as usual, been gaslighting us as to what has been proven, what is provable, how valid our elections are, etc. So, are the Ds going to be kicked out? IMO, depends on whether or not the desire to remove them results in sufficient votes to overcome the fraud machines – and if the Rs are smart enough to monitor elections properly and, even if they do, if the media and courts can be counted on to act with integrity (big “if” these days).

    • Pat Lang says:

      EN

      It is going to be so bad by then that IMO the outrage will overcome the fraud. As to the fraud in 2020 the various judges, legislative bodies, etc. simply refused to hear the evidence of fraud.

      • Eric Newhill says:

        Col. Lang,
        I tend to agree with you regarding the size and intensity of the outrage and its overwhelming of the fraud machine. I reserve some small amount reticence in this prediction only because the scope and scale of the Borg’s IOs and corruption networks are also massive. Nothing is beneath them and there are a lot of suckers out there. Who knows? If they can get us into a nuclear exchange threat with Russia, elections might be suspended.

        And I normally eschew conspiracy theories.

      • Lysias says:

        The Borg was able to cancel Trump’s landslide in 2020, and since then they’ve had a chance to consolidate their power.

        • Pat Lang says:

          lysias
          Once again, The Borg is the US foreign policy establishment. They are just flunkies. It is the American Marxists who control the Biden Administratio.

    • Lysias says:

      The U.S. has a long history of stolen elections. What was unusual about 2020 was that Trump won by a landslide and the election was still stolen from him. If even a landslide can be canceled, that means that the electorate has no power at all.

      • Pat Lang says:

        Lysias

        What is that “long history?

        • Lysias says:

          I recommend you read what Henry Cabot Lodge is quoted as saying in Daniel Ellsberg’s book “Secrets”. He says his whole life was a series of stealing elections. And he wasn’t even a Democrat!

  7. A. Pols says:

    7.5% inflation? You ain’t seen nothin yet. The US reaction to Russia’s move is going to move the needle big time and the squeals of distress from people who have been all in on rush to judgement will be heard throughout the land as they find out their “sacrifice” is more personal than they ever thought.

  8. walrus says:

    Col. Lang, Yes “it couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of politically suicidal people”.

    However what about the damage that their policies are going to do to America? That damage will not disappear after the elections because a lot of it is almost irreversible.

    In addition, we are crazy if we think we are insulated from the the international market turmoil and economic destruction our policies are starting to cause, let alone the international political fall out from this mess. I think we may find that jobless, freezing Europeans couldn’t give a proverbial about Ukraine and that will be reflected in their ballot boxes. We will be blamed as well as the Russians.

    Is that a problem? Yes because it potentially affects the economic Gulfstream that has protected the USA since 1945 – the use of the dollar as the world reserve currency.

    • Pat Lang says:

      walrus
      What do you suggest?

      • walrus says:

        1. Support Ukraine today in establishing a ceasefire and developing a negotiated solution.

        2. Stop adding sanctions and put the word out quietly that existing sanctions aren’t going to be enforced any time soon. Develop a face saving roll back plan.

        3. Purge dual nationals from the higher ranks of government and get rid of revenge fantasists from policy making/influencing positions. The heirs of Brezinski must be silenced.

        Much more is needed – policies from the first cold war need to be reinstated.

        • Pat Lang says:

          walrus

          You and I are dual nationals.

        • Eric Newhill says:

          Walrus,
          First, I want to say that it is refreshing to once again be in agreement with what you have to say. I did not enjoy the animosity over Covid.

          Once your outlined steps are implemented we also need to develop closer ties to Russia while simultaneously bringing manufacturing back to the US from China (what Trump wanted). As things are headed, sans redirection, Russia and China are going to form a stronger economic block. They are working on absorbing emerging markets into the block and that will accelerate. Long term, this means the US dollar, as reserve currency, is kaput and that, in turn, means that the US can’t borrow/lend at low cost, as it has been. That is an economy killer + we will be at the mercy of China and Russia for essentials.

          In order to accomplish all of what we see as necessary to save the USA, we need to get the American Marxists eliminated along with the foreign policy Borg and its Russia haters (as you say). Basically, we need to throw the current domestic powers out onto the street (or into the prisons). Incidentally, this is another reason I am less than interested in the plight of UKR. My enemy – our enemy – is right here and in seats of power. I’ll be damned if I do anything to support their play in the corrupt UKR; especially if it contributes to the long term destruction of my own country.

          • blue peacock says:

            Eric,

            There’s a lot of “mythology” out there in the land of economic policy and financial system architecture.

            First American Marxists. So are – Larry Fink, Sergey Brin, Larry Page, Mark Zuckerberg, Ken Griffin, Henry Kravis, Mitt Romney, Bill Gates, Larry Summers, Bob Rubin, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, Tim Geithner, Hank Paulson – all American Marxists? What does that label even mean? These are the people who determine American economic and financial policy.

            Bill Clinton along with the Republicans in Congress gutted Glass-Steagal, provided Deng’s China Most Favored Nation Status and enabled Wall St PE firms to buyout the American industrial base using credit only to dismantle it and ship it overseas all in the name of shareholder returns. When financial speculation went awry on the back of the mortgage credit derivatives boom in 2008, both Republicans and Democrats came together to bailout Goldman Sachs, Citi, AIG, et al but foreclosed thousands of middle-class Americans who got into the speculative mania too. Were they all American Marxists?

            Another is about the “petro-dollar”, reserve currency myths. I recall so many arguing that US invasions in the Middle East were because some country decided to price their crude contracts in some other currency and that would imply a collapse in the dollar and the end of the US economy. I began my career on an oil trading desk. There were many arbitrage trades where we traded across crude contracts and currency and credit swaps. It didn’t matter an iota what currency the crude or distillates contract were priced in as we could create synthetic contracts in any liquid currency.

            What would replace the USD as the intermediation currency for trade and as stores of capital? The Chinese Yuan where the capital account is closed? The Euro with so much political risk of it even existing? IMO, loss of reserve currency would have many benefits for the US, the first being we don’t need to run massive current account deficits. A huge myth in currency flows & forex markets is that most don’t understand eurodollar markets. The nodes of this system are banks outside the purview of the Fed who have the capacity to create credit – in dollars – and grow balance sheets. The size of eurodollar flows on a daily basis is in the tens of trillions. This is unmatched. I’m willing to bet anyone here at SST that in our lifetime there will be nothing else that will come close. These are all shiny object arguments with no basis in reality.

            The issue we have in the US from an economic and financial policy perspective is IMO threefold: a) The massive consolidation in market power across practically every major market segment – essentially monopoly power through the symbiotic relationship among the financial & political elite; b) Credit as a substitute for capital to fuel a gargantuan credit edifice that supports financial assets and financial speculation and that requires continuous growth to keep the asset structure afloat; c) The greatest wealth inequality and the destruction of the productive capacity of the bottom 80%, primarily due to points a & b. We have prioritized the financial economy over the real economy.

            As we see all the time shiny object distraction is part & parcel of the propaganda machinery. Just like to better understand the current Ukraine invasion we must go back to at least the end of the Soviet Union and the discussions among the US leadership, the Germans and the Russian leadership from Gorbachev, Yeltsin and Putin. Similarly to understand the current economic and financial structure we must understand the evolution of market structure, financial architecture particularly credit flows and balance sheets. In Larry Johnson’s earlier post he noted how among the top banks by asset size there were many Chinese. If you go back to 1989 and come up with a similar list the Japanese banks had the highest representation among biggest global banks. We saw how that movie played out. The fact is that on a global basis we are on a credit treadmill – credit growth has to keep growing at a rate substantially higher than real productive economic growth and when that growth rate falters financial assets will take a hit and the biggest owners of financial assets are largely the “American, European & Asian Marxists” not the proletariat.

          • Pat Lang says:

            BP
            You have grossly claimed misrepresented the group of people who are at the political heart of the Biden Administration. ” – Larry Fink, Sergey Brin, Larry Page, Mark Zuckerberg, Ken Griffin, Henry Kravis, Mitt Romney, Bill Gates, Larry Summers, Bob Rubin, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, Tim Geithner, Hank Paulson.” What a joke!

          • Pat Lang says:

            BP
            Ah, you are an example of that species of vile beast, an economic determinist. Did Putin invade Ukraine for economic reasons?

          • Eric Newhill says:

            BP,
            Some of the people I’m lumping in as “Marxists” are perfectly fine being capitalists themselves (Zuckerberg, Gates, etc). However, like Marxists, they are all for a top down socially engineered (by them) global society. They use Marxist ideology to sell their machinations to the populations; and fear of climate change, over population, whatever works to get the cats herded in the desired direction.

            Then there are the true Marxist believers and they are represented in the democrat party by AOC and “squad”, Bernie, et al. out front and others behind the scenes.

            I never believed US wars and other operations in the MENA had to do with maintaining the US dollar as the reserve currency. IMO, that is silly conspiracy theory nonsense.

            You offer a perspective on banking and currency that is not without merit. I just disagree.

          • blue peacock says:

            Col. Lang,

            My post is focused on economic & financial policy here at home in the US. I’m not discussing in the post why we invaded Iraq on false pretenses or why Putin chose to invade Ukraine. Both IMO had nothing to do with economics.

            We have had unprecedented market consolidation over the past 50 years despite having on the books anti-competition laws. This has happened uniformly across both political parties in power. Why? Who are responsible for such policies and non-enforcement of these competition laws?

            Similarly, we have had unprecedented growth in credit to inflate financial assets and in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. The size of the financial system dwarfs the real economy. Who are responsible for this and how does it benefit the working class with minimal exposure to financial assets?

          • blue peacock says:

            Eric,

            Who do you think has more influence over Janet Yellen at Treasury or Jerome Powell at the Fed? Bernie & AOC or Larry Fink, Ken Griffin or Henry Kravis?

            You know that Ken Griffin has paid Yellen several million dollars for a few speeches. Ben Bernanke also is a Sr. Advisor to Ken Griffin at a million dollar wage. Where do you think Powell made his centi-million? Carlyle.

            Who orchestrated the gutting of Glass-Steagall? Bernie?

            IMO, the Bernie’s & AOC’s have had limited influence over economic & financial policy relative to Wall St, Big Tech, Big Pharma, etc. over the past decades. Who has championed in the halls of power determining economic & financial policy the strategic value of maintaining an industrial base and supporting the working class? Hank Paulson, Steve Mnuchin, Bob Rubin?

          • Pat Lang says:

            BP

            Ah, you are mocking the poor dumb old man.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            BP,
            This poor dumb old man sees all of these big capitalists issuing woke talking points to the public. Politics, revolution and war makes for strange alliances. The Marxists and the financialists have a lot in common. They are bot atheists. They are both global movements. They are both into top down social science manipulation of the masses. They both seek to undo the intended order of our constitutional republic. Let me ask you this, who should have the power to decide the fate of energy production in the US? You’d think it would be the big capitalist energy production firms. Yet, the Marxists had production curtailed, didn’t they? Who was better for the economy and business, Trump with his deregulation and tax cuts, or Biden? Yet the establishment mobbed up on Trump. It’s not all “money talks”.

          • Sam says:

            Eric,

            I don’t know about the Marxist part in the classic sense. But I do see a ruling class across politics, finance and business. It appears more fascist in the classic sense. The merging of Big Government and Big Business.

            Climate change hysteria has both the wokeists and big money financiers on Wall St on the same side for different reasons.

            As this article notes capital invested in oil & gas exploration and production has been declining for sometime much of it pushed from Wall St. This decline in investment continued through the Trump administration.

            https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/23/why-high-gas-prices-are-more-about-wall-street-than-the-white-house.html

            Investment in new wells has dropped more than 60%, causing U.S. crude oil production to plummet by more than 3 million barrels a day, or nearly 25%, just as the Covid virus hit, and then fail to recover with the economy. For an oil-drilling sector that lost 90% of its stock value from 2012 through early last year, it hasn’t been the toughest call in the world.

            Oil company chief executives and finance chiefs have faced years of rising demand from markets for more disciplined capital spending after a spree of development centered in West Texas and North Dakota produced an estimated $10.9 billion in negative free cash flow in 2014 alone — roughly speaking, operating profit minus capital spending. That persistent cash drain made blue-chip oil exploration stocks drop 90% from their peak and spurred demands that companies eschew fast growth in favor of steadier profits and stock-boosting finance moves like higher dividends, more share buybacks and reduced debt.

            The covidian authoritarianism should be the biggest, most unmistakable wake-up call. Maybe the last. Considering we have allowed mass surveillance, Patriot Act, FISA courts and all that and have done nothing. Justin Trudeau showed how dissent will be treated in the west. Now we’re seeing how global corporations and financial institutions get weaponized to punish ordinary people everywhere who had no role in the machinations of the ruling class.

            We’ve been heading to a dark more authoritarian place for a good long while. Those who see it and want to resist it are rather unfortunately a small minority.

          • Pat Lang says:

            Sam
            Who gives a damn about the “classic sense?” Are you an academic?

          • Sam says:

            Col. Lang,

            I’m no academic. An architect by education. Although now nearly retired I spent the last couple decades managing a real estate investment fund.

            IMO, the classic sense has virtue since it connotes a specific meaning. If labels are malleable then we have to define it in each context. I see people who espouse nationalistic viewpoints labeled right-wing and those who have orchestrated deregulation of financial constraints as left-wing which just doesn’t make any sense to me and makes the labels devoid of any meaning.

      • Cerena says:

        An excellent proposition for a start of deep cleaning and the restoration of law and decency in the US:
        “If Blackstone and Goldman Sachs have been buying up Russian Assets the US Government ordered Europeans to dispose of, then the entire boards of both those companies must face the death sentence. There can be no discussion about human rights, no discussion about human dignity.
        Nothing.
        They must die the death of evil psychopaths and no one trying to defend them should be spared. This has to be the day when the whole world turns on the USA’s gangsters and puts a hit out on every single one of them.”
        https://thesaker.is/america-shoots-its-own-dollar-empire-in-economic-attack-on-russia/?inmoderation

  9. blue peacock says:

    It appears the Republicans won the Virginia state races on the basis of opposing covidian authoritarianism, standing with parents who were attacked and slandered as domestic terrorists and CRT in school curricula.

    Now the covidian narrative has been completely deep sixed. Fauci is not on every show sowing fear and promulgating new mandates and restrictions.

    It is Ukraine 24×7. The Republicans are in unison with the Democrats who now blame everything on the evil Putin. What is the contrasting message from the Republicans? And assuming the Republicans win in November, the question is which type of Republican? The Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, Kevin McCarthy, Lindsay Graham UniParty bird?

    The bottom line is we are where we are precisely because of the same Demopublicans who have ruled the roost for 50+ years. What’s gonna change in November?

  10. Sam says:

    One Of China’s Largest Banks Unable To Pay Margin Call After Today’s Monster Nickel Squeeze

    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1501030108605390849?s=21

    As Warren Buffet is reportedly been quoted as saying only when the tide recedes do we know who is swimming naked. LTCM blew up when their bets on Russian credit went south and the margin calls came in. Greenspan orchestrated a bailout to prevent “contagion” with others who also were levered to their gills. With leverage even higher and derivatives even more arcane and Wall St speculators with opaque exposure, who knows who will be caught offside?

    • mcohen says:

      I read that.Throw in the property developers and the storm is building.Just a guess but I wonder if China paid for the Russian “special operation” contractors like wagner and the chechens.
      I read a long post from a so called Chinese war observer om moa who was critical about Russian strategy.No bang for buck,no grain for noodle.

  11. Sam says:

    These things are not coincidences. There is a common theme behind all of them. The Fed’s got no idea what’s going on. Money is eurodollar, not dollar.

    Interbank networks that markets price in real time – if you understand what they are telling you.

    https://twitter.com/jeffsnider_aip/status/1501039362578001921?s=21

    What the eurodollar curves, swap spreads, TIPS all signaling reach for quality collateral and recessionary headwinds gathering velocity. Are we in for a bout of stagflation not seen since the 70s? Will the Fed once again go pedal to the metal rather than now projected to hike rates to contain inflation?

    The entire great span(s) of the global monetary and financial system is drawn together warning the world that the Fed’s version of events is all wrong. The risks have long since piled up the other way. And it’s not just about the US economy and its CPI rates, rather there’s harm which is being actively injected across the whole planet right now.

    Oil is a big one, and some of it lately is indeed Russia, but this really goes back to last February and March. Long before war in Eastern Europe, the shadow money system has shown itself to be increasingly fragile. That was the thing about Fedwire, and all the at-first tiny little fractures that have since radiated out from it spreading all over the world.

    All these things have been building right out in the open for over a year already. No one knew, hardly anyone still knows, because the Fed and bank reserves are said to be the full extent of the monetary universe. Even India’s rupee “knows” this can’t be true.

  12. mcohen says:

    Hope this not to long

    Observer’s Weekly Military Review: Russia can always provide us with lessons
    Source: Observer
    2022-03-06 11:56
    Wang Shichuan Author
    Observer Military Observer

    The most important military news of the week was, naturally, the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The course of the war over the past 10 days has proved that the Russian command clearly undertook a military adventure after 24 February in the hope of a systemic collapse of the Ukrainian army, and the relatively large losses suffered by the Russian forces confirm the failure of political speculation on the Russian side. For us, facing another war for the reunification of the motherland, this particular war, with its strange mixture of traditional warfare and unconventional military operations, is a very worthwhile lesson.

    [pic crashed aircraft]

    The Russian army didn’t fight a pretty war, it’s all about lessons for us

    The battle line

    Let’s start by talking about the situation facing the Russian army, so that readers can understand the current state of play. As of 5 March, when this week’s military review was written, the Russian army was conducting an offensive on four main fronts, mainly from the north to the south-east, and was making significant progress in all four directions and inflicting unrecoverable losses on the Ugandan forces in front of it. However, due to the length of the Russian front, which exceeded the maximum depth of attack distance set out in the regulations, and the fact that the Russians had run out of supplies carried by themselves, the Ugandan army sustained ambushes below company platoons costing the Russians over 500 men in losses.

    [map]

    This is the best picture of the battle on March 6 Photo source thanks to Twitter @RedRobeFirefly

    In the northwest, the Kiev direction of interest, Russia continued to advance north of Kiev, with Russian airborne units continuing to split into the Kiev suburbs in the direction of Kiev, running towards the Hagostomel and Bucha regions, while Russian tank units on the east bank of the river may continue to split into the Chernigov region on the east bank of the Dnieper to join forces in the direction of Sumy, with the U.S. military speculating that Russian forces will surround Kiev from the northeast and east.

    Despite the 100km advance, Russian light armour suffered two notable casualties in this direction, when two airborne platoon-sized units in the Buccha direction were wiped out by Ukrainian special forces in a close range sneak attack while marching in column. Video footage released by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence confirms that the Russians lost 10 paratroopers belonging to the 76th Airborne Division in this area, with two losses estimated at over 50 men, and that the Russian Ministry of Defence has issued a “revenge order” against the Ukrainian special forces who have been recklessly publishing pictures of Russian corpses.

    [pic gun on car and tank]

    Russian troops continue to engage in a vigilante battle with small groups of Ukrainian special forces in northern Kiev Photo: social media

    Despite the blows suffered by Russian forces in the immediate suburbs of Kiev, an interview with a Russian First TV reporter on 3 March on the close up of the An225 at Gostomeli military airport confirmed that Russian forces are under less threat in this direction and have held prisoners of war from the capital’s defence forces, a report that raises doubts on the battlefront, and a plausible explanation at the moment is that there are not many established and serious Ukrainian forces left north of the city of Kiev The only resistance forces left are Ukrainian special forces still active in the area, but these die-hard elements are still inflicting considerable damage on the Russian army by exercising their initiative. The Russian 76th Division and the Chechen National Guard are continuing their campaign against Bucha. Meanwhile, the Russian advance on Kiev from the east has been more successful, particularly in the direction from Sumy via Konotop and Nizin.

    [pic reporter at Gostomel]

    This photo is a better illustration of the war: two countries destroying the fruits of civilisation of the past with the weapons of the past era Photo: social media

    In the direction of Kharkov, which is of interest to the outside world, the Russian forces are currently stuck in the west and east of Kharkov, with a temporary delay in penetration from Kharkov in other directions. The city’s artillery and technical weapons are being gradually consumed by the Russian forces. The Russian 4th Kanjemilov Guards Tank Division and the 27th Red Banner Sebastopol Brigade have spent the last 48 hours manoeuvring around the city to the east and west, but only superficially. On 3 March, the T-80BVM tanks of the 200th Independent Naval Infantry Brigade advancing from the Kharkov direction to Poltava were recovered by the local militia, along with some 2S19 self-propelled guns and other weapons, but there is no video of Russian equipment being destroyed in this direction, and the militia only claim that the weapons were “captured”. The author speculates that this may be a case of the Russian army’s own weapons being destroyed. The author speculates that after the attempted penetration of Poltava, the 4th Division’s superiors changed their operational plans and withdrew the troops to the rear to resupply and prepare for the next offensive, while the forward troops discarded some of the heavy weapons they could not recover in the process. However, to the south-west of Kharkov, on 3 March local time, troops of the Lugansk People’s Army advancing northwards from the south of Lugansk towards the town of Novoaidar in Kharkov met up with a Russian airborne brigade advancing into the area from the north.

    [pic captured tank]

    Naval infantry T-80BVM tank recalled by Ukrainian side after being abandoned Photo credit: Social media

    [pic]

    But in this direction, too, the U.S. Army is rapidly running out of technical weapons Photo: social media

    On the southern front, however, Russian forces have made faster progress than on the northern front over the past week, as can also be seen by the number of Russian Heroes of the Russian Federation medals on the southern front. In the direction of Mariupol, Russian forces have basically taken control of the entire southeastern coastal direction of the Dnieper River, capturing Berdyansk to establish a new starting point for the offensive. Meanwhile, in the Donbass direction the Lugansk People’s Army and the Donetsk People’s Army advanced 30 kilometres each, and Russian forces had already joined up with the Donetsk People’s Army north of Mariupol, completely encircling Mariupol and continuing their artillery, long-range rocket and missile attacks on the city, with Russian ground forces suspending their offensive, but on 3 and 4 March the armed Donetsk forces in the north and The Russian army, which is advancing well on the southern front, may be ready to launch a street battle against Mariupol in the next 24-48 hours. The Russian army, which is advancing well on the southern front, may be ready to launch a street battle against Mariupol in the next 24-48 hours. The Russian side has now imposed a unilateral ceasefire on the Donbass front in Volnovakha and Mariupol on the morning of 5 March to open up humanitarian relief and evacuation routes for the trapped population in both areas, before resuming fire, reflecting subsequent moves by Russian forces.

    [pic statue and tank]

    Donbass working class forces pass the “Iron Workers” statue Photo: social media

    In the western part of the southern front, the Russian side, after capturing Kherson, has launched a new offensive to the northwest, towards the city of Nikolaev, where the Ukrainian naval command is located, and Odessa in the southwest. So far, the Ukrainian Army has organised a sizeable defence in this direction, destroying some of the Russian spearhead’s mechanised weapons such as several T-72B3 tanks and capturing a BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle of the advancing force, but that is as far as it has gone, and the Russians have lost one Su-25 and one Su-34 attack aircraft in this direction, the largest single day of losses for the Air Force since the start of the war. losses. Russian troops are now on the outskirts of Nikolaev and are preparing to land in the direction of Odessa, although the landing is a feint and it can be assumed that the landing will be assisted by the establishment of contact between the Crimea and Odessa. In addition, the Russian army continued to advance in the direction of Zaporozhye and did not suffer any new large-scale losses in this reverse direction.

    [double pic aircraft crashes]

    The loss of three Russian fixed-wings in this direction was unacceptable Photo: social media

    This is despite the fact that the Russian forces have overcome many disadvantages, surging over 100km in all directions and occupying hundreds of thousands of square kilometres of land. The Russian military strikes have largely defeated the organised defences of the Ukrainian army in a campaign that has lasted 10 days, with Russian Defence Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov saying on the evening of 5 March that Russian forces had destroyed more than 2,100 Ukrainian military facilities. Since the start of the operation, 2,119 Ukrainian military infrastructures have been destroyed, including 74 command posts and communications hubs, 108 S-300 surface-to-air anti-aircraft missile systems, ‘Beech M-1’ and ‘Wasp’ air defence systems and 68 radar stations”, Konashenkov continued, “69 aircraft were destroyed on the ground, 21 aircraft were shot down in the air, 748 tanks and armoured vehicles, 76 flak rocket systems, 274 artillery and mortars, 532 units of special military vehicles and 59 drones. The Ukrainian army had about 2,000 tanks and infantry fighting vehicles before the war, and as the Russian war reports were largely credible, about half of the Ukrainian army’s technical armament had been largely consumed. For Ukraine, the losses were comparable to those of Saddam’s regime in 1991, and it would have been difficult for Ukraine, which lacked heavy industry afterwards, to return to its former military strength, even with NATO support. But despite this, Russian forces have suffered more losses than outside observers had previously anticipated during the week-long advance, with 498 Russian troops killed and 1,597 wounded since the special military operation in Ukraine, according to Russian defence ministry spokesman Konashenkov on the same day. According to Soviet military regulations, Russian divisions and brigades generally have a reserve of house materiel that can only support divisional and brigade-level units for three to five combat days, and although the intensity of the fighting varies from front to front, as the war enters its 10th day, Russian forces will inevitably stall to regroup and put in a second echelon of domestic follow-on troops to take over for a new offensive.

    [pic of captured UA base]

    The UPDF’s technical armaments have been largely destroyed and will require NATO assistance to rebuild them

    Military adventure

    As the first hotly contested battle in Europa since the turn of the 21st century, the war turned out to be a real surprise to everyone, including NATO and the Russian High Command. The losses incurred by the Russian army stemmed from the passive position of the Russian army on the battlefield, and the passive position of the Russian troops at the grassroots level was clearly the result of decisions made by the Russian high command, which defied military common sense.

    Chairman Mao once pointed out: “The active position is not imaginary, but concrete and material. What is most important here is the preservation and assembly of the largest and dynamic army.” The practice of war shows that the side with the greatest strength is generally apt to take the initiative in joint campaign operations. The joint campaign should emphasise the concentration of superior forces, especially the concentration of equipment and firepower at decisive times and places, so that the campaign forces always develop an advantage over the enemy in order to gain a favourable posture and an active position.

    In the past week of fighting, however, it has become clear that the Russians have given up their military advantage and actively placed their troops in a passive position. This can be seen in the long penetrations of Russian troops in violation of military regulations, in addition to the massive restrictions on the use of Russian artillery fire on their own side. The current Russian combat mission depth in this mission is far beyond the military capabilities of the Russian army, which has improved its military equipment compared to the Soviet era, but is not much more advanced than the Soviet army in terms of its full mission depth due to its logistical capabilities. According to the relevant operational regulations, in an offensive battle, the Soviet Army would determine the depth of combat tasks based on the formation of enemy groups and defensive positions, the battle (combat) intentions and combat capabilities of its own troops, and the terrain conditions. Under normal conditions, a fully mechanised Soviet infantry division can have a full combat depth of up to 50 kilometres, only 30-35 kilometres when breaking through fortified territory and attacking in impassable areas, and up to 80 kilometres when attacking a weak enemy on plain ground and moderately undulating terrain.

    [map]

    The posture map drawn by the Europeans shows that a BTG has to cope with a traditional brigade-sized territory

    But the reality is that, on the tenth day of the war, the depth of the current Russian assault has exceeded the Russian military ordinance regulations. On the northern front, Russian troops have assaulted Buccha from the Russian-Ukrainian border as the starting point of the campaign in the space of a week, reaching a depth of 110 km. On the eastern front, the Russian Kanjemilov division has assaulted 100 km towards Sumy and 80 km north and south towards Kharkov, while On the southern front, the Russian forces were the most dramatic: from the Crimea to Mariupol, the Russian forces on the southern front raided 100 km in the direction of Zaporozhye, and in the direction of Mariupol, they raided a full 180 km to Mariupol on the Azov coast. These Russian detachments in place were not only out of range of the long-range firepower of the Russian helicopter airmen and groups, but also out of the logistical support of the Russian military superiors. In terms of the distance of the assault alone, the Russian Federation’s armed forces have already reached the distance of the first 10 days of US land operations in the 2003 Iraq war, but it is clear that the Iraqi forces in the Iraq war were far less willing to resist than the U.S. forces were.

    [map]

    While the Russian army was engaged in a major penetration, the size of the Russian troops involved in the battle was very small compared to the elongated front, and the Russian army still retained a large number of main forces that failed to go forward. At present, according to the composition of the Russian forces, the author has only found 138 (suspected), 27, 163rd Tank Regiment of the 150th Division, 136, 4th Tank Division, 37, and 126th Coastal Defence Brigade, 200th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Northern Fleet, 31, 7th, 76th Airborne, and several special purpose brigades of the GRU, with military affiliated air defence, artillery, and rocket and towed artillery and logistical supply forces, several battalions of the National Guard, and detachments of the Russian Federal Security Service. The current observation shows that the elite Russian Kandemirov is assigned to a synthetic combat group of divisional air defence forces, and that a single penetrating detachment is often responsible for a territory of nearly 100 square kilometres at the level of a reinforced battalion, even close to the territory controlled by a synthetic brigade after the reform of our army. For a country like Ukraine, which spans 500 kilometres from north to south and 1,000 kilometres from east to west, this is a very small number of troops. The Russian army has at least 20 divisions and brigades unused in the country so far. The Russian Ministry of Defence also released on 4 March local time the deeds and information of the first seven heroes of the Russian Federation, whose troops also fought in a territory that largely validates the size of the Russian army’s current troop presence.

    [pic officer]

    Tank drivers of the naval infantry, with courage and quality, defeated the UPDF in symmetrical combat

    In such a passive position, the mere penetration of the old mechanised units of the Russian Army resulted in substantial non-combat losses. For example, in the 1979 self-defence counter-attack against Vietnam, the total number of our tanks involved in the battle was only seven regiments and two battalions, of which the main combatants were several army and military district tank regiments, of which over 600 tank armoured vehicles were lost in battle more than 500 times during the assault and penetration, but most of them were repaired and only about 40 tanks were eventually totaled due to excessive damage. However, such repairs occurred in the face of our absolute superiority in strength and firepower, with the 43rd Army Tank Corps advancing only 80 kilometres and with several armies in the rear. The problem facing the Russian Army at present is that the rapid penetration of troops on both fronts has seriously depleted the fuel and logistical supplies of its units, and the Russian Army’s main mechanised units are over-aged, with a large number of vehicles over 30 years old, and a large number of equipment which, although short in age, is in fact far less reliable than the Russian Army says it is, being discarded – effectively facing the need to rest The problem of resupplying to regroup before continuing into high-intensity combat Russian divisional and brigade-sized units, with assaults of over 80km on the northern front and nearly 200km on the southern front, would have suffered no small amount of non-combat losses.

    [2 pics]

    The excessive advance has resulted in the loss of a large number of field defence systems Photo: social media

    As we currently have no objective means of accounting for Russian losses, because the Ukrainian military’s “base camp war report” is so exaggerated that it literally adds an extra zero to the results, we have to turn to open source information on the war. According to Oryx, a pro-Western open source intelligence enthusiast, who has identified and counted all the Russian and Ukrainian battle damage in photos and videos online, there are 555 photos of Russian mechanised equipment losses of all types, including 227 total losses, 131 abandoned and 189 captured, including 72 tank losses and 23 total losses, 75 infantry fighting vehicles, including 23 total losses. pieces, 17 mobile anti-aircraft missile vehicles, of which 6 were destroyed by TB-2 drones, and 184 photo pieces of various other wheeled vehicles. Although pro-Western open-source accounts like oryx also confuse “total loss” and “captured” photos extensively in their blogs, referring to a large number of videos taken by “Ukrainian countrymen” as “There is a lot of double counting. However, the open-source statistics of Russian losses show that the Russian army did abandon its main battle equipment, such as tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armoured transport vehicles, above the size of battalions and regiments, and that a large number of old wheeled vehicles were destroyed and abandoned in the course of the operation.

    Although the UPDF did not launch a massive counterattack, the Russians still suffered some platoon level losses, and public video shows that the Russian advance in the first week of the war also suffered several major losses in the late days of February, including battalion and company level losses to front line equipment in brutal close combat, such as in the ambush on 27 February and 4 March in the direction of Buczavan, north of Kiev. In the ambushes suffered north of Kiev in the direction of Buczafon, for example, the Russians suffered two successive ambushes, suffered losses at the level of three airborne platoons, and lost more than 20 airborne troops and more than eight airborne combat vehicles. These losses also match the figure of 498 Russian troops killed during the operation, as confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defence. What can be judged is that the Russian mechanised forces in the main offensive direction, which probably have around 1,500 main battle equipment and slightly fewer logistical vehicles and artillery support equipment than the main battle armament, have not suffered establishment losses so far, but after a week of low intensity fighting, the Russian front will need to wait for the follow-on forces to replenish before making another plan.

    [pic tank]

    The loss of Russian equipment also illustrates the passive nature of the Russian strategic posture. The advanced European and American weapons on hand, such as the Javelin and the TB-2, caused few losses to the Russian forces. So far the Javelin has not caused many results, and there is no video of the corresponding strikes, except for a T-80BVM, which was presumed to be the result of an ambush by the UPDF. At the same time, the convoy destroyed by the TB-2 was located in a weak Russian logistical convoy, and the TB-2 was rarely able to stop the Russian vanguard mechanised unit, protected by Armour and Tunguska, from attacking hard. It is fair to say that the Russian composite column, with its heavily reinforced attachments, did a good job of destroying the small Ugandan raids and accomplishing the intended campaign objectives. However, the main Russian losses instead came from logistical supply convoys, and subsequent artillery convoys, and it could be argued that the source of Russian losses even came from UPDF light weapons, mines, direct anti-tank weapons and Ukrainian imitation Soviet anti-tank missiles.

    [pic from drone]

    TB-2 inflicts some battle damage on logistical convoys

    There are many reasons why the Russian army limited its own means of military action, and it is not difficult to surmise that it sought to minimise casualties among the population for the sake of the need to facilitate the post-war handling of the Ukrainian problem and its own international reputation. However, another part of the determination of the head of the Russian military command to act against military common sense clearly has a political purpose, but such a decision is clearly an act of opportunism.

    Russia is the stronger side against Ukraine, but the weaker side against NATO, and the Ukrainian campaign is not entirely a “military account”, but has a large “political account”. In such a situation where the enemy is strong and we are weak, this speculative behaviourism is similar to the “leftist” opportunist military strategy of our country during the Agrarian Revolutionary War, in that it is hoped that a military adventure will change the dynamics of a strong enemy and a weak one. It can be assumed that the Russians wanted a “multipoint campaign” across Ukraine, with large numbers of troops interspersed in the direction of Kiev and Kharkiv, and even airborne troops penetrating alone, to overwhelm the Ukrainian government and army in terms of public opinion and morale, to achieve a “military parade”, to force the Ukrainian army to come forward and clash with the Russian mechanised forces for a showdown, and to force the The Ukrainian government was forced to issue an order to cease resistance.

    But both military practice and historical experience have shown that the consequences of such a military adventure, if it failed, were unthinkable. The Russian army has not been able to withstand establishment losses in the week-long battle, but the strategic objectives that the Russian command had hoped to achieve have not been achieved. As we have seen over the past 200 hours, the dozen or so brigades in eastern Ukraine, despite their weak will to resist, did not manoeuvre and fight in formation over the past week, choosing instead to establish fortified positions in key cities and population centres, almost exclusively with the intention of fighting to the death on the ground, and the Russians did not find the opportunity to quickly destroy the Ukrainian army in manoeuvre. It could be argued that hundreds of “four-line warehouses” were built throughout the east of the Dnieper, with the aim of winning “international support” for the Ukrainian authorities in a “dignified death”. The aim was to win “international support” for the Ukrainian authorities in a “dignified death”.

    [pic military observer hiding in childrens bedroom]

    UPDF artillery observers crouched in children’s quarters

    For the Ukrainian army, what they did in the first week of the war was the most rational choice. They were not in a position to repel the Russian attacking forces on their own territory, and although they were faced with a situation where the enemy was extremely strong and we were extremely weak, they could avoid the fulfilment of the Russian strategic intent by a number of means, namely by avoiding a quick victory for the Russians and a quick defeat for themselves. From the first day of the war, the Ukrainian army rarely moved from its positions, relying only on the large amount of supplies it had on hand, its strong fortifications and its proximity to populated areas, forcing the Russians to stop and switch to the offensive or forcing them to drop their moral baggage and bombard populated areas in front of the global media.

    The UPDF has not lost its initiative completely, and the UPDF’s strikes against the Russians have made more use of NATO’s intelligence advantage, using small groups of forces to surprise the Russians with these scattered forces, and the following company attacks have been piecemeal against the Russians, and often “die together,” but the sum total adds up to as many as 500 Russian troops killed and more than 1,000 wounded today. The losses caused by this military adventurism were indeed a tactical error on the part of the Russian command. The series of losses suffered by the Russian army during the long manoeuvres, and the information warfare in the Western-controlled media, further encouraged the determination of the die-hard elements to fight to the end, and further discouraged the idea of a “quick victory” for the Russian army.

    [map]

    NATO’s early warning aircraft and cameras have helped the UPDF gain valuable intelligence

    So far, the scales of war are still tipping in Russia’s favour, with the Russians still firmly in control of the battlefield as they increase the number of sorties by Russian Air and Space Forces fixed-wing fighters, drones and helicopter gunships, gradually loosen their fire-strike restrictions, and gradually deplete their combat forces with a lack of supplies and troops. Daily videos of Russian losses released by the UAF are decreasing, while the Russian front is gradually firming up and increasing in strength, with established UAF brigade headquarters continually being captured by Russian and Donbass militias. The current situation suggests that this long-delayed war will continue to drag on, as well as the changing geopolitical situation leaving the Russian forces still at a disadvantage.

    [2 pics – drone plus strange pic]

    The Chechens’ night vision and the Russian drones were more than the Ukrainians could handle

    Another lesson from this politically opportunistic military adventure of the Russian command is that the Russian army has almost completely abandoned “propaganda” as a political tool. Chairman Mao had taught us that the propaganda work of the Red Army was the first major work of the Red Army. The Chinese Communist Party had a profound understanding of military propaganda from the very beginning of its political career and revolutionary struggle in China. Ukraine has a well-developed infrastructure, telecommunications facilities and mobile phone penetration, and the Russian army has a certain awareness of the effectiveness of using the internet to communicate military operations. However, in the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict, under the military decision of “politics over military”, the Russian military’s propaganda system has failed to break the persistent and tenacious will of the Ukrainian army to resist while choosing not to disconnect the entire Ukrainian territory, which is indeed a lesson to be learnt. For various reasons, the Russian side failed to make public the progress of its forces and the results of the battle in a timely manner, with the first videos of the results being released only 96 hours after the start of the battle, and the only videos released were of strikes by Air Force helicopter gunships. It is surprising that only the Chechen forces and the Donetsk and Luhansk forces made regular releases of information about the entire joint campaign, which spanned several groups of armies and air divisions and naval bases. This was something that none of us had anticipated at the beginning of the war.

    [night vision pic]

    Mobile phones and cameras have given the Ukrainian army a tired and valuable means of communication and command

    Russian netizens, Ukrainian netizens and those of other countries outside the region received almost unilateral videos of the attrition of Russian vehicles captured by the Ukrainian public. Due to the “military adventures” of the Russian command, the inevitable attrition of the Russian mechanised columns during the ongoing assault and the relatively casual attitude of the Russian army towards the Ukrainian civilian population, such videos of “heavy Russian losses” began to fill the internet within hours of the start of the war. The internet began to fill up. Forty-eight hours after the start of the war, as a result of direct intervention by Western powers and the “network-wide censorship” of Western social media administrators, videos of damage to Ukrainian equipment disappeared from Western-controlled social media platforms such as Twitter, Facebook and Oil Tube, leaving only a large number of videos of Russian troops abandoning their vehicles and damaging them, so that many internet users could only see Russian losses, not the annihilation of Ukrainian troops.

    From what I have observed, these persistent videos of the annihilation of the enemy, combined with the rare drone combat results of the Ukrainian army, have greatly boosted the fighting morale of Ukrainian nationalists and indirectly influenced NATO’s determination to intervene. It can be said that the Russian propaganda system, especially its military propaganda system, which has long been the “children of other families” in the minds of our netizens, has disappeared in this Russian-Ukrainian conflict, as have the probe-drones.

    Could we have done better?

    It was a war of unprecedented “transparency”, and the team I worked with watched, analysed the battle and sorted it out to form effective information live in real time, which ended up being a miracle in the history of contemporary journalism and a manifestation of the nation’s concern for this war. This war is a light and strange war is a teaching without tuition, whether we or the comrades of the Division, for this war already have the same or different thinking, but these thoughts ultimately point to a common direction, for the face of the war of reunification of the motherland, when that day really comes, we can do right better?

    In response to this doubt, the author has had some unclassified exchanges with some comrades in the army over the past few days, and the general consensus among us and our comrades in the army is that the answer to this is yes. First of all, our commander-in-chief makes decisions and certainly does not engage in speculation. As panorama broadcasters of the war, we all have a deeper appreciation of the phrase “the soldier is a matter of national importance, a place of life and death, a way of survival, and must not be ignored”. The military is a continuation of politics, and winning a military victory is the absolute first priority. The command should not have any military illusions for the sake of political speculation, modify the normal military decision-making scheme in the pre-program and weaken the strength of military strikes. In the words of the author’s friend, you can’t hit the Sichuan Road bridge under the Suzhou River before you start thinking about the “little soldier’s question”. Putin did not answer this question well, so the battle was very ugly. The political system of the Russian and Chinese armies is different. The fundamental principle and system of absolute leadership of the army by the party is the political quality and fundamental advantage of the people’s army that completely distinguishes it from all the old armies, and therefore our chiefs can never take military risks and political speculation with the lives of our soldiers.

    [pic Chinese soldier]

    The question, “Do you want a capitalist building or a proletarian fighter”, must be thought through before firing a shot.

    Gaps in the commander-in-chief aside, the war has better lessons for many of our friends in the army. The shape of our future war for the reunification of the motherland will be very similar to the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, and the Russian army showed all the disadvantages that our troops avoided as much as possible. The war brought with it a number of new questions and reflections for our comrades in the army, many of which concerned “how should we fight such a war”.

    If the war of 1991 was a wake-up call, the war of 2022 will be a mere check-up for us. The war we are fighting is much more complex than the Kharkov offensive, and in view of this, many of my friends believe that the systemic gaps reflected in the Russian military campaign are all-encompassing, and not just minor issues such as “not enough probe-and-fight drones”. The Russian army used a large number of drones in the war, but even so, the Russian army did not have a unified information-based command system, and the information from the drones could not be processed, and could only be provided to small units for alerting. Due to the lack of information-based reconnaissance feedback, the Russian fixed-wing and drone forces were ineffective against the Ugandan special forces, who were organized into groups, and against the Ugandan mechanized forces, who were hunkered down in the cities.

    If it were the PLA on the other side of the Eurasian continent, with the advantage of information technology built up since the “military reform”, and supported by advanced equipment and combat systems, the PLA would have fought a far more beautiful war than the Russians. The PLA was able to rely on its information superiority, to divide into zones and to strike the enemy’s forces with the same political aspirations through massive precision strikes. At the same time, the modernised mechanised infantry, with the advantage of its officer and non-commissioned officer corps, advanced observation and information-based communication systems, and under the cover of its own overwhelmingly superior air and artillery precision fire, was able to use the night and even daytime to launch an offensive, “pinpointing” every house and street in the city and rapidly dismantling the enemy’s defences. Speaking of the quality of officers, the Russian army rarely organised battalion and company level night battles during the war, probably because the Russian staff was not good enough to organise night operations for large units.

    [2 pics drone launch plus one other]

    This systemic gap just won’t work Photo credit: Social media

    Ultimately, however, the Russian military is exposed for a variety of reasons that are still a matter of national strength. The Russian army has limited military spending and its Air and Space Forces fleet is only literally a fraction of the size of the PLA’s (the gap is about 1,400 to 400 for the fighter fleet, 80 to 1 for the five-generation fleet, and 10 to 1 for the special fleet), in terms of the vital special fleet, especially the fleet of electronic countermeasures and early warning aircraft. Even if outside observers were to make excuses, the absence of the Air and Space Forces since the start of the war 10 days ago is unwarranted, especially as the Air and Space Forces are an integral part of the Soviet-Russian style offensive campaign system. We will need to wait for the Russian side to decipher the absence of the Air Force afterwards, but one possible military speculation is that the Russian forces are still wary of the far stronger NATO countries’ warplanes. After all, it is now the Russian Air and Space Forces, and any aircraft shot down from Ukrainian territory can be called by the West as having been shot down by the Ukrainian side, as can also be seen only in the Pentagon briefing of 1 March. The US side insisted on claiming that Russia had not gained air control over Ukraine when the Ukrainian air force and air defence units were barely able to organise an effective defence. The fact that the Russian army has been slow to organise a decent air offensive shows that the Russian air and space forces still have to prepare for a “strong enemy” west of Lviv.

    [pic J-20?]

    Just as I was finishing the article, I came across this news: China’s military budget for this year is RMB 1,450.45 billion, up 7.1% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to last year. This is the first time since 2019 that China’s military budget has increased by more than 7%. Compared to the Russians, we are undoubtedly fortunate to be backed by a country that can constantly provide its people’s army with the most advanced warplanes. It is true that the Russian army can wage a war with the Yars and the Bulava as its backbone, but without the J-20, it really cannot fight this war as beautifully as the other hegemonic powers. For our part, we can safely contemplate whether our Dongfeng 41 is enough while providing the People’s Army with dozens of brigades of advanced fighters. In any case, the problems and lessons of the Russians would take three days and nights to write about, and if there is one sentence that sums up this glorious war, it is that the Russians will always have lessons to offer us.

    This article is an exclusive article of the Observer, the content of the article is purely the personal views of the author, does not represent the views of the platform, without authorization, may not be reproduced, or will be held legally responsible. Follow the Observer on WeChat guanchacn to read interesting articles daily.

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    Posted by: BM | Mar 6 2022 13:16 utc | 603

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