The new reality in Rojava – TTG

22oct_Northeast-Syria-2

Rojava is dead. Long live the Syrian Arab Republic. The new Russia-Turkish agreement goes a long way in reestablishing Syria’s territorial integrity and foiling Erdogan’s dream of a new Ottoman Empire. It also provides the Rojava Kurds their best hope for a future whether they realize it or not. First, here’s the agreement.

————

President of the Republic of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President of The Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin agreed on the following points:

1. The two sides reiterate their commitment to the preservation of the political unity and territorial integrity of Syria and the protection of national security of Turkey.

2. They emphasize their determination to combat terrorism in all forms and manifestations and to disrupt separatist agendas in the Syrian territory.

3. In this framework, the established status quo in the current Operation Peace Spring area covering Tel Abyad and Ras Al Ayn with a depth of 32 km will be preserved.

4. Both sides reaffirm the importance of the Adana Agreement. The Russian Federation will facilitate the implementation of the Adana Agreement in the current circumstances.

5. Starting 12.00 noon of October 23, 2019, Russian military police and Syrian border guards will enter the Syrian side of the Turkish-Syrian border, outside the area of Operation Peace Spring, to facilitate the removal of YPG elements and their weapons to the depth of 30 km from the Turkish-Syrian border, which should be finalized in 150 hours. At that moment, joint Russian-Turkish patrols will start in the west and the east of the area of Operation Peace Spring with a depth of 10 km, except Qamishli city.

6. All YPG elements and their weapons will be removed from Manbij and Tal Rifat.

7. Both sides will take necessary measures to prevent infiltrations of terrorist elements.

8. Joint efforts will be launched to facilitate the return of refugees in a safe and voluntary manner.

9. A joint monitoring and verification mechanism will be established to oversee and coordinate the implementation of this memorandum.

10. The two sides will continue to work to find a lasting political solution to the Syrian conflict within Astana Mechanism and will support the activity of the Constitutional Committee.

————

22oct_Syria_war_map-768x714

Why do I think this is such a good deal for Syria and the Rojava Kurds? The key is in the first two points of the agreement. The current northern border is preserved. That is a huge win for Damascus. Turkey will be sending a substantial number of Syrian refugees back south of the border to areas not now populated by Kurds. This is a major plus for Erdogan. He can claim this as a victory and save face. Both sides agree to fight terrorists. Turkey won’t fight the jihadis, but the Russians in the joint patrols sure will. And the SAA won’t let them sleep either. The jihadis will not be able to prey on the Kurds living near the border. 

The YPG/SDF will be away from the border which also can be claimed as a Turkish victory. However, remember that the SAA-SDF agreement of last week calls for incorporating the YPG/SDF into the SAA 5th Assault Corps. Armed Kurds will still be among the Kurds looking out for Kurdish interests under the auspices of the SAA. That’s where the Kurds win. The SAA and Russian patrols will be be no kinder to jihadis in Rojava than they are to the Idlib jihadis.

Speaking of Idlib, it appears the offensive to reduce that jihadi salient is about to kick off. SAA units are massed in northern Latakia where Syrian and Russian air assets have been pounding the living crap out of the jihadis. President Assad visited his front line troops today. I would say things are about to get real in northern Latakia and Idlib.

TTG

https://southfront.org/syrian-army-and-russian-military-police-to-deploy-on-border-putin-and-erdogan-reach-agreement-on-northeastern-syria/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/new-map-of-northern-syria-after-agreement-on-turkish-border-region/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-armys-idlib-offensive-to-begin-at-any-moment/

This entry was posted in Russia, Syria, TTG, Turkey. Bookmark the permalink.

71 Responses to The new reality in Rojava – TTG

  1. Avatar Anonymous says:

    86 km from latakia to tartus.with the n.east secure it is one front.m4 and m1.

  2. Avatar Leith says:

    You are an optimist TTG. I hope you are correct. I’ve always been a skeptic myself.
    How can the third point be good for Assad when it preserves the Turkish gains in Syrian territory at Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ayn? Seems to be just another Erdogan mouthful of the Syrian homeland. Erdo will be establishing Turkish mayors, functionaries, and police in those areas, plus the Turkish postal system, schools, etc like he did in Afrin, al-Bab, Azaz, and Jarablus. And those areas under Turkish control have been known as ‘Syria’s breadbasket’ because of wheat and barley farmlands. Where will those crops go now?

  3. Avatar oldman22 says:

    Big question unresolved: will USA go along with this agreement?
    Or will USA continue to restrict Syrian access to oil fields east of Deir Ezzor? Does anyone know of any USA commitment or refusal?

  4. Oldman22, right now the US doesn’t know whether to shit or go blind. There is absolutely nothing we can do about this agreement. The agreement actually pulls our cookies out of the fire by preventing a widespread slaughter of the Kurds. We remain in the oilfields southeast of Deir Ezzor and at the jihadi base at al Tanf for no good reason other than to pander to Israel and the ziocon lobby. Trump just approved more money for the white helmets and is pimping out thousands of our troops to Mohammed “Bone Saw” bin Salman. To top it off, Iraq has told us those troops we’re pulling out of northeast Syria cannot stay in Iraq. Oh bother, what to do, what to do.

  5. Leith, the Turks can only patrol up to 10 km south of the border. Those Turkish sponsored jihadis in the area now occupied cannot act as jihadis in that area or they will be dealt with as terrorists by Russian troop and the SAA. Turkey will move Syrian refugees into that area. The demographics of that area will change, but it will remain Syria.

  6. Avatar Dao Gen says:

    In a related matter, according to the link below the US has now sanctioned oil deliveries to Russian troops in Syria, so that might be one motive for wanting to illegally grab Syrian oil fields. Several sources also claim that the oil in those fields is now being shipped by the Kurds through Turkey and sold to Israel. However, after signing a ten-point agreement with Damascus, it’s difficult to see how the Kurds could go on stealing Syrian oil with impunity.
    https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-attempting-to-impede-jihadist-defeat-in-syria-with-new-sanctions-russia/

  7. Avatar rho says:

    Did anyone in the USA hear about German Defense Minister (and Merkel’s hand-picked designated successor) Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer’s “international security zone” proposal in Syria and take it seriously? https://www.dw.com/en/german-defense-chief-recommends-international-security-zone-in-syria/a-50924304
    I have no idea what she specifically expects to achieve with it and see no realistic way to do it in a way that is not in violation of international law, which is usually a very important consideration for German military policy.
    That woman also seems to be quite confused about the regional geography, when she presented her own security zone proposal in a government TV interview, she started talking about “northern Iraq” until the interviewer corrected her and pointed out that she ought to be talking about northern Syria, of course…

  8. Avatar Leith says:

    TTG, not sure I am following. Point three as you quote above says: “In this framework, the established status quo in the current Operation Peace Spring area covering Tel Abyad and Ras Al Ayn with a depth of 32 km will be preserved.”
    Your point five states the “joint Russian-Turkish patrols will start in the west and the east of the area of Operation Peace Spring with a depth of 10 km.” To me that means NOT within the Peace Spring zone. Which would give the Turks free reign within another 4000 square kilometer chunk of Syria. Add that to what they already have stolen in Operations Olive Branch and Euphrates Shield and it is damn near the size of your home state of Connecticut.
    What am I missing? And in any case, when do the Turks go home. Not stated in the agreement, so this could end up as another permanent landgrab like Hatay?

  9. Avatar Leith says:

    BTW, here is another map from a Turkish reporter Ragip Soylu:
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EHgMKl7XUAAqudX?format=jpg&name=4096×4096

  10. Avatar Peter AU 1 says:

    Win win win, including thinning the Idlib jihadist population. Similar to Erdogan pulling Jihadists from Aleppo for the Jarabulus operation.
    Trump has some consistencies. Libya “We should have taken the oil”. Iraq “We should have taken the oil, who knows, perhaps we will get another chance”. Syria “We should take the oil”.
    But still Syria have recovered a lot of country plus assets like the cement factory, full control of the dam for power and irrigation, and a good chunk of Syria’s wheat growing breadbasket.

  11. Avatar Anonymous says:

    Ah ha.the cry of whatodo bird.like the african fakawi bird.cries out where the fakawi

  12. Avatar Lars says:

    I hope you are right, TTG, but I am also skeptical. Frequently the unintended consequences replace the intended ones. There are just too many actors trying to get their slice of the pie. Of course, it may be very good news that the US involvement is reduced. But that leaves a vacuum that can turn out badly.

  13. Avatar JJackson says:

    Assuming all this comes to pass, and I think it will, then most the Northern Boarder will become secure. The SAG, Russia, Iraq and the Kurds will be on the same side & the US and a few Sunni tribes will be the only occupying force left. Once Idlib is reclaimed the whole SAA will be to park themselves around the oil fields and the At Tanf pocket and besiege them. Absent resupply and vastly out numbered and out gunned Trump can negotiate a pull out and real withdrawal which be loved by his base and enrage the Borg. Nicely done Russia. The two tiny salient the Turks have just acquire can then be part of a separate deal with Russia as guarantor they are not to be used as Kurdish jumping off points against Turkey and Ergodan can claim ‘Mission Accomplished’ we have stopped the Kurdish threat from Syria and Syria can start the process of rebuilding. Syria is whole again.

  14. Avatar Assad says:

    You sound like SAA made the deal and Turkey is following up on what SAA has ordered. It is the other way around. YPG and SAA will keep to the agreement that Turkey and Russia and if they don’t they will be dealt with. No SDF 30 km near the border, also not in SAA uniform. If SAA doesn’t listen Turkey has the right to march up to the 30 km parameter.

  15. Avatar Christian J Chuba says:

    It’s good news but the U.S. will try to play the spoiler.
    The only card we can play is to divide the Kurds and SAR as much as possible. We will tell the Kurds that if they share oil with the rest of Syria (Iran and the Russians in Neocon speak) that it will be embargoed but if they don’t they can keep all of it for themselves. This is what Graham and Keane are pushing. Of course it’s unreasonable to ask the SAA to protect the border and have U.S. oil companies develop Syrian oil fields while depriving 15M Syrians any benefit. Some people are rotten to the core.

  16. Avatar plantman says:

    This is a great deal for Putin but not-so-good for Erdogan. How is Turkey going to resettle 3 million refugees in a 10 km strip along the border? It can’t be done.
    Erdogan must have something else up his sleeve.
    Besides, I cannot see Erdogan accepting this lousy deal (for Turkey) after 7 years of fighting a bitter proxy war in Syria. How does he explain this to his constituency in Ankara?
    IMO, Erdogan has not given up his ambition to control the entire area down to the M=4 highway, in fact, an editorial just two days ago in the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet, said as much.
    Frankly, I think Putin knows that erdogan is not being honest, but Putin wants a political solution in order to end the war and withdrawal his airforce.
    I can’t blame him.

  17. Avatar fredw says:

    This is basically the deal the Kurds should have made a year ago when they had more leverage and a better hold on the ground. It doesn’t matter much what the US wants because we have shown that we are not willing to commit anything to it. Whatever their faults, the Russians have demonstrated a willingness to back up their stands with men and resources. I see an odd parallel with the reasoning that led us to ally with the Kurds rather than the the Turks in the first place. The Turks had much greater strength, but they were uninterested and worthless in the actual fight. The US has now placed itself in that category. US desires are relevant only to the extent that we are willing to commit strength to back them. Nobody now believes that the US has that will.

  18. Avatar oldman22 says:

    John Helmer, THE SULTAN BLINKED, THE TSAR AGREED TO CLOSE HIS EYES – THE OTTOMAN EMPIRE EXPANDS BY 118 KILOMETRES OF SYRIA
    must read all for yourself, a few highlights:
    The Turkish advance eastwards along the Syrian Highway M4 to the Iraqi border has been stopped. The Syrian Army will reoccupy the eastern zone to the Yarubiya crossing, with Russian military police on the ground; that also means the Russian Air Force in the air.
    The Russians believe this concession is worth making to the Turks so long as the Americans are forced out; this is the message Putin has relayed to the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
    According to a statement by Lavrov, the paper which Erdogan agreed last Thursday (October 17) in Ankara with US Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been dismissed. “We do not particularly look at the United States and its stance. That stance is quite variable and contradictory, and of course, the coalition led by the United States is in Syria illegally, this is well known,” Lavrov said after the talks ended in Sochi [5].
    Taken together, the terms amount to a joint ultimatum to the Kurds – either make peace with Damascus, or fight alone against the Turks, and also against the Russian military patrols scheduled to appear at noon today (October 23), according to Point 5.
    Putin has demonstrated, again, that the Turks can force his hand with faits accomplis on the battlefield. The Stavka – the combination of the Russian battlefield and General Staff commands, plus Foreign Ministry experts like Lavrentiev – have tried to mitigate the losses Putin is willing to concede.
    Russian military analysts and Middle Eastern specialists in Moscow are fearful of commenting, even off the record, particularly since Lavrov and Shoigu remain reticent. Many believe that Putin has failed to secure Erdogan’s agreement to end his war for regime change in Damascus. He has also failed, the sources think, to enforce the repatriation of Turkish troops from the Syrian territory they occupy.
    Worse, Putin’s paper does not prevent the Turks from sharing their occupation with the Pentagon;

  19. Avatar fredw says:

    “This is a great deal for Putin but not-so-good for Erdogan.”
    True. Erdogan’s plan has been checked. The relative value of the deal for each simply reflects the strength each is prepared to apply to the situation. Nothing mysterious about that. It doesn’t mean that “Erdogan must have something else up his sleeve.” Erdogan has plenty of other schemes in his head. He is just not going to be allowed to implement them. The balance of strength is not in his favor.

  20. Avatar plantman says:

    Golly, this piece by Helmer is delusional–
    He says: “Putin has demonstrated, again, that the Turks can force his hand with faits accomplis on the battlefield.”
    What “faits accomplis”??
    The Russians have given up nothing, they’ve merely shown that they are both reasonable and realistic about the final settlement.
    “The Foreign Ministry experts like Lavrentiev – have tried to mitigate the losses Putin is willing to concede.”
    Once again, total hogwash. Putin has given up nothing just a 10 km strip that will be jointly patrolled.
    Here’s more–“Many believe that Putin has failed to secure Erdogan’s agreement to end his war for regime change in Damascus.”
    Erdogan has agreed to participate in the rewriting of the constitution which will include future elections. In other words, Helmer is mistaken again.
    Here’s more–“Worse, Putin’s paper does not prevent the Turks from sharing their occupation with the Pentagon.”
    Yeah, sure. Erdogan just spent the last 2 years trying to get the US out of east syria but now he’s going to invite them back in.
    Boy, this is really poor analysis.

  21. Avatar Barbara Ann says:

    That was the brilliance of the plan – a power vacuum was avoided with the 5 day ceasefire. SAA & Russia moved in more or less seamlessly. No massacre of Kurds and plenty of troops around to fight ISIS – just not American ones. McConnell can demand a return of troops all he likes, but he’d better have a plan for removing the Russians first. Best of all Trump can now demonstrate that anarchy does not reign when the US World Police give way to other parties. Template for the future – you bet.

  22. Avatar prawnik says:

    Professor Daniel Larison has said much the same.

  23. Avatar prawnik says:

    The problem is – now that the Kurds are no longer facing an existential threat, their American friends will be using every means at their disposal to induce them to break their agreement with Damascus.

  24. Avatar Barbara Ann says:

    I’d like to see anyone try and smuggle oil across the Turkish border now.

  25. Avatar oldman22 says:

    I enjoy Stockman’s attitude.
    “When you have to bomb a cement plant that was storing weapons for one “ally” (the Pentagon-supported Kurdish YPG/SDF) so that another “ally” (the CIA-funded Arab FSA) doesn’t seize them, and this happens in the context of a sovereign nation that Washington had illegally attacked and occupied for no reason of homeland security whatsoever…why then the jig is up!”
    https://original.antiwar.com/David_Stockman/2019/10/22/up-in-smoke-the-neocon-assault-on-syria-is-finally-over/

  26. Avatar Barbara Ann says:

    TTG
    What are the odds the next phase is to zip up the eastern border with the cooperation of a friendly Iragi government and help from Iran & the PMU’s? Is it feasible any troops can be maintained in the MERV/oil fields area if Iraq chooses to block access? I am not up to speed on Iraqi politics in this respect, but the message that the troops exiting Syria will have to leave Iraq is an interesting sign.

  27. Avatar oldman22 says:

    You say
    “Once again, total hogwash. Putin has given up nothing just a 10 km strip that will be jointly patrolled.”
    Juan Cole says:
    ” Turkey had planned an incursion to the depth of 20 miles along a 276-mile stretch of northeast Syria, from which it planned to expel hundreds of thousands of Kurdish residents and replace them with Syrian Arab refugees from elsewhere in Syria, who now live in Turkey. That is a little over 5,500 square miles.
    Instead, Turkey will keep for a while a 75-mile long stretch between Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ayn, to a depth of 20 feet down into Syria. That is only 1500 square miles.”
    https://www.juancole.com/2019/10/unlike-massive-incursion.html

  28. Avatar Leith says:

    Plantman – Erdogan’s resettlement area is approximately 122 km long by 32 km deep. That’s 3904 square km or over 1500 square miles. Even that is not enough as you say to resettle three million refugees comfortably. But it is big enogh for a supersized IDP camp with the refugees stacked up a$$hole to teakettle.

  29. Leith, you are right. Maps out of Russia show no joint patrols along the border between Tel Abyad and Ras al Ayn. That area, which was largely Sunni Arab before, will receive many more Sunni Arab refugees. The latest map shows 15 SAA observation posts along the border not including between Tel Abyad and Ras al Ayn. There is nothing about Turkish OPs in that area. I doubt this area will end up like Hatay. Its fate will be more like Idlib and Afrin… eventually to fall back under the control of Damascus.
    In my opinion, the influx of returning refugees will be an eventual plus for Damascus even though weeding the jihadis out from the refugees will be a tough, but necessary, task. The return of refugees will be good for the entire region. Here’s a map showing the 15 SAA OPs and the Turkish Operation Peace Spring area.
    https://southfront.org/russian-mod-syrian-army-to-establish-15-observation-post-map/

  30. Barbara Ann, I believe the next phase is Idlib. With the NE border crisis averted the R+6 will soon launch another major offensive to retake that province. The Iraqis may not block access for US troops to the SE Syrian oil fields, but they have already told us that the troops withdrawn from the NE are not welcome in Iraq. That should ring alarm bells in CENTCOM about how the future will unfold.

  31. Avatar JamesT says:

    TTG
    Since the Kurds have no choice at this point but to submit to Syrian govt authority, presumably they can do a deal with the govt such that they go in and take control of the oil fields on behalf of the govt at some point.
    I’ve developed newfound respect for the Russians and Ukrainians I’ve met who thought so highly of Putin.

  32. Avatar Barbara Ann says:

    Helmer’s reading of the Kremlin tea leaves is occasionally useful, but I think he is fundamentally wrong here. This omelette required a few eggs to be broken. A Turkish invasion of some scale was absolutely necessary and it was obvious Erdogan would seek to keep what he managed to grab. He now has another bargaining chip come the final peace settlement, which ought eventually to see the return of all of Syrian territory to Damascus’ control. Failing that, Erdogan better be prepared to fight an ongoing insurgency in the captured territories – at best with Russian standing by & controlling the airspace. That would not sit well with his current message of having brought peace to the southern border.

  33. Avatar ISL says:

    Plantman,
    The resettlement camps in Syria will be temporary for many worth cleared refugees slowly returning to their villages or the major cities. Many re: highly skilled citizens who had enough assets to flee – Syria needs them to rebuild its society.
    And Erdogan doesn’t have to deal with the jihadis amongst the refugees in Turkey – it become Syria and Russia’s headache.
    In any case, its not as if Erdogan has a choice – either he follows Russia’s lead or waits for the next coup attempt. The S-300 deal tells Turkey’s direction.

  34. Avatar Mk-ec says:

    The retired Indian diplomat M.K Bhadrakumar has a look at the MOI, and mostly agrees with your opinion.. this seems like a win for turkeys claims and a Russian compromise .. of course biggest losers are the Kurds https://indianpunchline.com/deconstructing-putin-erdogan-mou-on-syria-this-is-how-it-looks/
    0

  35. Avatar Jane says:

    Answer: The USG, to include POTUS, have said that we are in control of the two big fields there. One is “protected” from ISIS and the Syrian regime by 200 troops. The other is controlled by 400 contractors. The area around there is still nominally in SDF hands but the SAA has been moving around there. It is not clear what we can do with the oil under those circumstances except to deny it to others. Even if we can repair them, start pumping and get the oil out, we could not legally sell it. Note that there are also potentially rich oil resources as yet unexplored in the area close to the Turkish and Iraqi borders. This was on the minds of the Turks but they no longer have access to the area.

  36. Avatar Jane says:

    Italy continues to enjoy Libyan oil, hence loyalty to the Tripoli government.

  37. Avatar Stephanie says:

    “President Trump tweeted on Sunday that the U.S. has “secured the Oil””
    That is imperialism straight out of the playbooks of the belligerents in WWI. It was controversial then. In fact, it was so controversial, the Allies kept it secret in the form of a secret treaty dividing the spoils of war after an assumed victory.
    Is it controversial now? Do American soldiers or American people simply say, “Ah, that’s a very good thing. We kept the oil out of the hands of bad old Assad.”? Well, if that’s what they say then why aren’t we invading KSA which has a malignant dictatorship based on terrorism?
    “We have secured the oil.” That ranks up there with “We came, we saw, he died… [giggle, giggle]” In fact, it’s worse. Trump is not fit to govern.

  38. Avatar Fred says:

    So Trump is busy positioning everyone to support a US War for Oil in the Middle East, which is precisely what the Democrats have said they have opposed for almost 20 years. Hasn’t anyone caught on to his M.O. yet?

  39. Avatar JohninMK says:

    I doubt that Putin wants to withdraw his airforce. They have signed a 50 year lease on it. It protects his eastern Med port of Tartous, currently being, like the airbase, expanded.
    The main benefit to Russia of helping Syria was the continued access to Mediterranean bases.

  40. Avatar JohninMK says:

    The US may have secured the oil but what is it going to do with it?
    All the pipelines out of the fields run west to Assadland, that leaves trucks. North to Turkey? East or south to Iraq?
    Looks like it stays in the ground, except that the Kurds have an agreed profit share with Assad. So it looks like the US will be protecting the oil so that it can go to Assad. That looks sustainable!

  41. Avatar jonst says:

    lets see Mitch pass a law requiring it, to the limited extent that is constitutionally possible. But he can pass a resolution, sense of the Senate, whatever, to put the troops back in. If pressed to that I think he will back down. He will not put his money where his mealy mouth is.

  42. Avatar different clue says:

    I believe that denying the oil to anyone else, most of all Legitimate Syria, is the point of the exercise at this point. FUKUS absolutely positively does not want SAR to be able to make any recovery and reconstruction from that oil.
    I wonder whether this would be a fine time, from a China’s eye view, for the ChinaGov to give, not lend, just straight-up outright give billions of effective dollars of aid to Legitimate Syria, recovery aid which recovers and reconstruction aid which reconstructs. If China helped Syria recover and reconstruct so well and so thoroughly that Syria was eventually able to reconquer its own oilfields no matter who objected, a grateful Syria might remember China when basing rights and privileges are sought and/or when made-in-China stuff is offered for sale.

  43. Avatar different clue says:

    I might have said it a bit differently, but yes. A vacuum was created possibly in the hope that Russia and the SAR/SAA could fill it so faster than anyone else that all the other Black Hat Bad Actors could only stand by, watch and fume.

  44. Avatar Leith says:

    TTG, I like your latest map better.
    Although that Turkish controlled zone, which was largely Sunni Arab, did have significant numbers of Assyrians, Armenians, and Kurds. Both Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ayn cities are mixed populations that had Christians and Kurds. And there were a dozen or so Kurdish or mixed villages within that zone.
    One would think that the Russians would have at least allowed the Assyrian militias and the Armenian Battalion (more like a reinforced platoon despite the name) to guard their churches and neigbourhoods in Ras al-Ayn. But there is no way that Erdogan’s proxies like Faylaq Al-Majd, Arhar al-Sham, and Nur al-Din al-Zinki would agree to that. Those guys are all hardcore nutcases who’ve committed war crimes. They live for an opportunity to burn down a church or coerce marriages and conversion on Assyrian/Armenian girls. It’s not just the Kurds that are worried about ethnic cleansing.
    Here is an ethnic map of the the NE that was linked on your earlier post:
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EG_nYEQXkAELDAG?format=jpg&name=large

  45. Avatar different clue says:

    Perhaps Putin is still focused most-of-all on the longest-game of keeping deadly danger far enough away from Russia that Russia can continue its social and economic development. If the ErdoPutin deal weakens FUKUS enough on the Syrian front that FUKUS has lost some ability to destabilize Russia itself from that direction, then Putin has bought Russia some more time to make itself destabilization-resistant.
    Is that what Putin is thinking? Buy the Russian domino time and a chance to nail itself to the table so securely that nothing can push it over? Does Putin want to be ” the Stolypin who succeeded”?

  46. Avatar different clue says:

    Well, its an intelligence test for the Syrian Kurds. Will the Syrian Kurds show the good common sense to keep their agreement with Damascus in order to stay socially alive, even if they eat bitterness for the next few generations?
    Or will they win themselves a Darwin Award?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darwin_Awards

  47. Avatar different clue says:

    The Democrats can say they oppose War for Oil . . . to give themselves Superior Morality Points on the public stage. But do they really oppose the concept?
    It was the Democratic President Jimmy Carter, after all, who first issued the Carter Doctrine.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darwin_Awardshttps://www.encyclopedia.com/history/united-states-and-canada/us-history/carter-doctrine

  48. Avatar Babak Makkinejad says:

    US is denying the oil to Syria, another front in the war against the Shia Crescent.

  49. Avatar Babak Makkinejad says:

    No, they won’t show common sense.

  50. Avatar Babak Makkinejad says:

    That is my own thinking too.

  51. Avatar jd hawkins says:

    “And That is the rest of the story”.

  52. Avatar Fred says:

    DC,
    Carter was a disaster in foreign affairs and a domestically. His pardoning of the draft dodgers was not a virtue signal like most of the left’s current anti-war stance.

  53. Avatar elaine says:

    Fred, Here’s my best greenhorn speculation to rebut the seemingly endless
    Blood for Oil battle cry/siren song: The New Silk Road & Belt. If implemented properly there would be no need to kill each other over oil & gas…when this thing really gets going ppl like DJT will turn their focus
    back to building hotels. That’s just how developers think.

  54. Avatar BABAK MAKKINEJAD says:

    Carter did not start a new war.
    His Camp David Accords offered the United States the opportunity to terminate the Arab-Israeli Wars, that Reagan, Clinton, Bush II, Obama, and Trump have rubber-stamped insensible Israeli escalation does not make his achievement worthless.
    He did not muzzle NPR – those who followed him into US Presidency gutted independent journalism at NPR.
    His successors, gradually eliminated scholarships – really investments in education – escalated against Iran and Russia to the strategic Never-Never Land, and sold US jobs to China and Mexico and India.
    Carter’s achievements were modest, I grant you that, but he did no harm.
    His biggest mistake, in my view, was that initiated the process of state destruction in Afghanistan, but he had fellow travelers there: Iran, China, EU states, and Gulfies. On this, no one has escaped unscathed from the Blow-back in that unfortunate land.
    You live in Michigan – only 4 Michigan counties have illegitimacy rates of less than 25%. Who is responsible for that? Carter?

  55. Avatar J says:

    TTG,
    What’s a person to think regarding the Wall Street Journal article about the Administration is considering leaving troops and battle tanks in Northern Syria.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-weighs-leaving-more-troops-sending-battle-tanks-to-syria-11571958019?

  56. J, it leaves me wondering just who the hell is the Commander in Chief in this country. Hanging the Kurds out to dry the way we did was bad enough, but at least it was in line with an overall goal of extracting ourselves from the region. Adding combat troops to protect the oilfields is pure lunacy. If you want to see what a coup looks like, here it is. CENTCOM is complicit in this fiasco.

  57. Avatar turcopolier says:

    TTG Yes. What is the plural of “coup?” Ah, yes it is “coups.”

  58. Avatar Leith says:

    Babak;
    The SDF in control of those oilfields has been and continues to be a supplier of crude oil to Assad’s government. They’ve been doing this via a third party broker or brokers for over a year. The broker transports it by tanker-truck to refineries in Baniyas and Homs. The US has not stopped them from doing that. I suspect Trump is just blowing smoke in the media’s face.
    But he is clearly trying to screw up the SDF/SAG deal with his latest tweets.

  59. Avatar different clue says:

    If you are correct, and I hope you are not, but if you are . . . then its Darwin Award City here we come! for the Syrian Kurds.

  60. Avatar Fred says:

    Babak,
    He did a great deal of harm by coddling the anti-American left. The Arab-israeli wars can never be ended by the US. Afghanistan as an effective state existed before Carter? I think not.
    Scholarships? The never ending growth of academic bureaucracy, price gouging and degradation of quality go hand in hand with federal monies given without obligation or oversight. As an example, how many genders were there when you earned all those degrees? How many do you think the Obama’s taught their children? Don’t ask that of the local college professors, university presidents or school principals or Democratic elected officials anywhere. As to illegitimacy rates, what race and religion are you referring to, or is that to offensive to ask? Replacing fathers with the state started in earnest with LBJ’s Great Society programs. They have destroyed the black family in the North and are doing the same elsewhere.

  61. Avatar BABAK MAKKINEJAD says:

    You responded in generalities while I was very specific.

  62. Avatar BABAK MAKKINEJAD says:

    That award has to be shared across 4 countries.

  63. Avatar Fred says:

    Babak,
    Yes, 4 unnamed counties, the others you don’t mention nor answer with the illegitimacy rate by race or religion, very specific that non-generality. Scholarships eliminated? You don’t mention which specific ones, maybe I missed that too.

  64. Avatar JamesT says:

    For the last 3 years I have been arguing with a friend about whether Trump is an idiot-vassal-of-the-neocons, or if “he is playing 3D chess”. When Trump announced that the US was pulling out of Syria I texted my friend “You were right. Trump is smart and he has coordinated this with Putin.”.
    Then the announcement came out that US troops are staying in Syria to “protect the oil fields”. Sigh.
    In Trumps defense – he is currently facing impeachment, and R+6 have their work cut out for them securing Idlib and Rojava. If Trump really is coordinating with Putin to thwart the Borg, letting CENTCOM have the oil fields while R+6 consolidate their recent gains could make tactical sense. I wonder if even Bibi knows whose side Trump is on.

  65. Avatar Peter AU 1 says:

    TTG, Trump has said troops are being moved to other places and then coming home (though nothing said on what they will be doing in other places before they come home).
    Secretary of defence has said a mechanized force will be moved in to protect the oilfields.
    I take it green berets (from past pieces and comments here I take it the forces in Syria were GB’s) being pulled out of Syria and mechanised forces moved in means the mission in Syria has changed somewhat.

  66. Peter AU 1, US troops started with 50 Special Forces in early 2016 followed later that year by 250 more. Conventional troops came in March 2017 with 400 jarheads with a battery of artillery to help the SDF take Raqqa. Some time after that additional conventional forces came in, including at least a Ranger company, to provide a deterrent against Turkish attacks in Manbij and elsewhere. By the end of 2017, the number krept up to 2,000Throughout this time there were many airstrikes. The airstrikes actually started at the seige of Kobani. SOF raids also took place through this time. The makeup of the US forces changed over time. These mechanized forces are just another change in the makeup. I have no idea how many SF remain with the YPG/SDF.

  67. Avatar Babak Makkinejad says:

    Google for the counties.
    “The Left”, “The Right”, almost laughable when one asks: which of the two presided over the largest wealth transfer in human history?”

  68. Avatar Leith says:

    TTG, do you have any insight on this former Green Beret medic, Dave Eubank, who formed the Free Burma Rangers, and now has a medical detachment in Syria helping to evacuate SDF wounded by Turks and TFSA jihadis?
    https://twitter.com/DaveEubankFBR/status/1188113080208650241

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.