Thoughts on the Potomac Air Crash

I’m willing to wait on the NTSB investigation, but one claim, or series of claims, have given me pause. It concerns the altitudes of both the Blackhawk helicopter and the airliner at the time of impact. Experienced pilots have said that helicopters along that Potomac flight route should be below 200 feet AGL. Some, including our new SecDef have suggested the Blackhawk was well above that altitude.

Airliners on approach to DCA flying up the Potomac should be 400 to 500 feet AGL. That much makes perfect sense. However, in order to land, an airliner has to eventually descend to ground level to land. That also makes perfect sense, but I haven’t heard that obvious fact mentioned.

Drawing a straight line from the south end of runway 33 to the far side of the Potomac is approximately 4,000 feet. That point is the approximate crash point. Assuming a 3 degree glide path, common for airliners, the airliner would have to be 200 feet AGL at that point based on my ancient knowledge of trigonometry. That would put both the airliner and the Blackhawk at the same altitude without the Blackhawk pilot making an altitude error.

Am I missing anything here?

TTG

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97 Responses to Thoughts on the Potomac Air Crash

  1. Stefan says:

    Trump has already decided that the accident was caused by DEI practices. That interview with him was unhinged.

    This space here is so tight. The Pentagon a mile or so away, multiple military bases from multiple branches. News sites have reported there was a near miss between a helicopter and a plane the day before. Also reports that one controller was actually covering two different positions. The controllers have been short handed for years, yet Trump and his government are trying to get them to resign for some free pay until September. It isnt even clear if he has the ability to make that offer. But beyond stupid to try and exacerbate the Air Traffic Controller shortage.

    I know the area of the accident well. I have worked in that area for over 20 years and still take my 7 year old daughter to play at the parks at the water front at the end of the run ways where you can watch the jets land.

    If this accident had happened a few hundred yards into the Virginia side the casualties could have been in the hundreds or higher. Crystal City and Pentagon City are right there with multiple high rise apartment and condos buildings. If the wreckage had hit/landed on these it could have been much worse.

    • Eric Newhill says:

      The helo pilot was a female with 500 hours flight experience. DEI? Suggests maybe.

      • TTG says:

        Eric Newhill,

        Female helo pilots have been a thing in the Army since at least the 1980s, well before DEI was even thought of.

        • Eric Newhill says:

          TTG,
          Sure – and some damn good pilots among them at that. However, that is different from the frenzy to promote the image of Multi-Culti Rainbow Wonder Woman that exists today. As the frenzy increases, the probability of lower standards and lower quality increases.

          • al says:

            Eric, Buying the Trump DEI Koolaide already?

          • Eric Newhill says:

            Sure Al. Who am I going to believe, you or my own lying eyes? It’s too bad I live in a cave in the mountains, stay in a drunken stupor all the time and have no contact with society at all. Thanks for being there to keep us isolated stupid cavemen all aligned with the narrative. Like Joe Biden not being senile and, in fact, being sharp as ever, until he wasn’t all of the sudden and needed to be replaced by a ding bat laughing hyena, who was ahead in the polls, until she lost the election, massively.

            The female pilot’s family is demanding that the name be kept secret. That could be due to an understandable desire for privacy during a difficult time, especially given that many want to blame her for the crash and personal responsibility is mean – or, something more political. We will see.

            Then again, it could end up being like Crooks. He shoots a former President and candidate for the same and then….nothing. Nothing is known about him, or his family, and he is memory holed, like it never happened.

      • leith says:

        DEI: That would be Duffy as SecDoT, Elon firing FAA Director & air controllers, and the Orange Idiot himself. Broligarchs all.

        Pottery Barn rules apply here.

        • Fred says:

          leith,

          Policy and procedures including training of ATCs are set by FAA leadership. They are not in the control tower. Which ATC got fired in the first 8 days Trump was in office?

          Perhaps you can pontificate on the policies and procedures suggested by the chest feeding sodomite who took the pronouns out of his bio after leaving the position of transportation secretary.

          • leith says:

            Fred –

            Perhaps you can pontificate on another sodomite, the hedge fund mentor of Trump’s eyeliner boy sidekick.

      • Stefan says:

        “The three soldiers of the Army UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter that collided with a jetliner on Wednesday night just off of Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport were all very experienced and not only had thousands of hours of flight time between them but were very familiar with the flight patterns above the Potomac River….

        The Army has confirmed that all three soldiers were from Bravo Company, 12th Combat Aviation Battalion, based at Fort Belvoir, Virginia, about 20 miles south of Washington, D.C. The unit primarily transports senior U.S. military officials around the Washington area and beyond.

        Koziol confirmed to reporters on a conference call that the male instructor pilot had more than 1,000 hours of flight time, the female pilot who was commanding the flight at the time had more than 500 hours of flight time, and the crew chief was also said to have hundreds of hours of flight time.”

        https://6abc.com/post/army-black-hawk-crew-involved-dc-crash-made-top-pilots-thousands-hours-experience/15849913/

        A decent commander in chief and president does not rush to judgement and ascribe guilt in the deaths of 80+ people in the hours after a tragedy. He would be better off explaining that he acted in error to freeze hiring of new Air Traffic Controllers and acted in error by encouraging seasoned ATCs from resigning when there is a 3,000+ person shortage of ATCs.

        It is a shame that a person who fought so hard NOT to serve in the military would ascribe responsibility for the deaths to those who made a choice that he refused: to serve in this nation’s military. The three who died willingly served their country. The president fought to avoid service when he was called up.

        • Eric Newhill says:

          A decent CiC and POTUS has been briefed better than you have been. Sorry that your sacred cows are getting butchered en masse – nah, I’m not. I revel in it.

          Trump knows exactly who was flying the helo. You’re not allowed to know because of some political BS (the family requests it be kept secret and the Army is complying with that nonsense, thus far) that Trump will soon cut through, like the necks of those cows of yours.

          • Laura Wilson says:

            Eric, Trump doesn’t like to be briefed. He doesn’t read. He doesn’t actually listen and hear what his briefers say. He is the guy that is always looking over the shoulder of the person addressing him to see if anyone more interesting or important is coming his way. He then jumps in with his own thoughts, ignoring what was just briefed to him.
            It’s who we got.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            Laura,
            You and the CCP subversive, Pangolin Breath (down thread), should get a room.

            What is ironic is that the lefties here who deny DEI is a problematic thing, have no problem with the Army delivering special treatment to the deceased female pilot. Hers is the only name the Army refuses to release. So special treatment.

            The instructor pilot’s name is released. If anyone bears any responsibility for the accident, he definitely shares in it, as the instructor. So why the special protection for the female pilot? Something is not ok here.

          • leith says:

            Laura –

            Don’t mind Eric. He is just hoping that we all forget the real DEI hires, the ones in the Trump administration: i.e. an African immigrant, a roadkill-eating mental retard, a scientologist, a patroness of child abusers, a drunken wife-abuser, two beauty queens, and three Hindus. Worst of all is the cross dresser whose mentor is well known arse bandit.

      • al says:

        A male warrant officer training pilot with 1000 hrs experience was instructing a female pilot with 500 hrs experience is what I have been reading.

        • Eric Newhill says:

          Al,
          The female pilot has now been named.

          She commissioned as an aviation officer in 2019. Now that the name is out, the flight hours are being hedged downward to 450. Regardless, 500 hours over five years isn’t much. Hardly an experienced pilot.

          She is also said to have served as some kind of an aid to Biden.

          There is a lot more to this story to be sure. Not to detract from her service, but she may not have been the best pilot and DEI and favoritism ( who did she meet while hanging around Biden?) may have had her flying a training mission that was well beyond her skill level. The possibility cannot be ignored.

          • TTG says:

            Eric Newhill,

            I haven’t seen any mention of the fact that CPT Rebecca Lobach couldn’t have been on flight status for more than a few weeks since her assignment to Belvoir. She was still at the White House in early January. Although I’ve also seen that her battalion did certify as a command pilot.

            Given her assignment at the White House, I’m sure she got the follow on assignment that she wanted. That’s not DEI. It’s a standard function of being in those high visibility positions. I’ve seen it happen with general’s aides.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            TTG,
            Sure. Could be exactly what you say. It might make you happy to know that I think Cpt Lobach may not have been responsible for what happened, at least not totally. She may not have been in command of the aircraft. I don’t really know how it works. I assume the “instructor” would ultimately be in command of the flight regardless of rank.

            All I’m saying is that it is an investigation and that, until ruled out, everything/everyone should be subjected to intense scrutiny.

            I am merely reacting to the stupid politicizing of the accident that puts some avenues of investigation off limits – even considering the possibility of a deranged DEI pending discharge or a Muslim gone jihadi. Both have happened in the past. Nothing should be summarily dismissed; especially not for ideological reasons.

            The crew of the helo definitely screwed up. Perhaps the ATC screwed up. The whole idea of helos flying a few hundred feet below commercial airliners is absurd and needs to be examined. Complacency among line level workers (including pilots) and those in charge needs to be examined and addressed. Near misses between airplanes and helos at that airport are apparently well known in the aviation industry and far too common.

            The bottom line here is that 64 innocent people, some young people doing great things, died due to systemic issues and, more immediately, due to some problem(s) with the helo’s crew.  Not only were their lives unnecessarily cut short, but their survivors will go on with persistent deep sorrow for the rest of their lives. I know. I lost my mother on a major commercial airline disaster that occurred due to pilot error. She was on route to visit me. The pilot and co-pilot were inexcusably distracted and failed to follow basic pre-flight check lists. It’s a terrible thing.

            If the female pilot was awarded her wings because she is a she and/or had friends in the Biden admin and wasn’t qualified, that needs to come out. The survivors of the victims have a right know. If that is determined to not be the case subsequent to unbiased investigation, then scratch it off the list of possibilities. Same with DEI hiring practices among ATCs, etc.

            I had attempted to be a Marine aviator (helos). I failed at one aspect during testing. My vision was good enough, but my eyes were not sufficiently able to simultaneously (or quickly shift) focus on the helmet screen right in front of my face and at the distance of the instrument panel and at far distance through the windshield. I get it. I accepted it as a prohibitive characteristic. It would be a bad thing if I was a protected or favored class and ideology allowed me through because they needed more of my type for the quota.

            Something else – had the passengers or their family known that it is SOP to have helos buzzing around barely under – a split second’s lapse under- the glideslope of their aircraft, I would bet that many of them would have elected to avoid that flight; heck the whole airport. I would. But they had no idea. They put their faith in the FAA, et al. However, no one in charge deemed the passengers worthy of that information. Then the moronic flight arrangements between Army and commercial traffic, that the arrogant pricks designed, finally – inevitably – catastrophically broke. It is not OK that so many trusting, naive, people have been placed in mortal danger for so long. This is a good opportunity to make some examples if needed, out of irresponsible slackers, politicos, and dunces and to rectify hazardous situations.

  2. Lars says:

    From what I have seen so far, I can’t understand why the helicopter pilots did not see the aircraft? It appears that traffic control saw a problem and tried to warn the helicopter. I certainly hope that all the facts will become available. There is also the problem with Congress critters requesting more and more flights to DCA. Just for their convenience.

    • Stefan says:

      The transcripts show that the helo pilot did see the airplane and acknowledged such. The videos seem to show them going right into each other. Under around 1,000 feet the equipment that would have communicated between the aircrafts and told the pilot which way to go to avoid collision are turned off because the instructions could suggest action that would cause the aircraft to strike the ground.

      • leith says:

        They thought they saw the airplane, but they saw the plane behind it that was also in the landing pattern. Got to wonder what if anything their night vision goggles had to do with it?

        As Ked mentioned below the VFR rules in and around DC need to be screwed down tight.

        • Eric Newhill says:

          Leith,
          That is a theory, not a fact. I suspect that it will be proven false.

          • leith says:

            Eric –

            I’d like to hear any theory you have as to why that helo pilot acknowledged that he saw the plane but collided with it anyway.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            Leith,
            Here’s one theory for you – crazy DEI knew s/he/it was about to be discharged due to Trump’s executive order. Pissed off and selfish psychotic tendencies became fully florid – aimed for the commercial jet and successfully committed murder/suicide – like a school shooter. Wouldn’t be the first time.

            Or it could be a Muslim DEI going arial Fort Hood.

            Why won’t they release the name?

        • Stefan says:

          Eric,

          Do you realise just how batsh*t crazy your comments in this thread come off? I dont think you do.

          • leith says:

            Stefan –

            Eric knows it is BS. He just posts whacko comments like that to get a reaction.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            Stefan & Leith,
            I don’t think you guys realize how batsh*t crazy your thinking is to most of us – which is why your leaders lost the election. They didn’t get it either.

          • TonyL says:

            leith,

            No. Eric Newhill is really “batsh*t crazy”, as Stefan said. Not intentionally posting BS to get a reaction. He professed to be a MAGA (aka Make America Go Away). To someone in the cult of Trump, batsh*t crazy stuff is the ideology.

            We are officially a fascist state now. The oligarchs (prominently among them is Elon Musk) are running the country. Look at how many billionaires are in Trump administration.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            TonyL,
            There is a > 0 possibility that people like you and Stefan are foreign disruption agents on a mission, like those protesters in CA blocking the interstae and burning US flags and fanning the flames with Mexican flags.

            Otherwise, your problem is that you lack wisdom. You may perhaps be able to write code, memorize and repeat what is in a college curriculum and all of that, but all of it doesn’t equate with wisdom, which is what really counts. Yet, you deem yourselves intelligent and superior and virtuous. Your a self-licking ice cream cone, right down to the unhealthy empty calories – and you live in a bubble.

            Again, the last election should have shown you that is all true, but instead of wising up, you double down. The arrogance is as astounding as it is pathetic.

          • Keith Harbaugh says:

            TonyL wrote
            “We are officially a fascist state now.”

            I beg to differ.
            Consider some other parts of society,
            like the educational sector.
            “Harvard Survey: Over 75 Percent of the Harvard Faculty Identifies as “Liberal” or “Very Liberal’ – JONATHAN TURLEY”
            https://search.app/LBTXa4iowFv5oYQ88
            “The Thin Blue Line: University Professors Are Approaching Near Unanimity as a Democratic Lock – JONATHAN TURLEY”
            https://search.app/MPcxENBUZxW7Brug6

            Just who controls the educational sector, and are making left-wing views virtually a requirement for employment?
            I don’t think it is fascists.
            Try the “ADL”

            And who has been pushing DEI, CRT, uncontrolled immigration, and the mental illness called transgenderism?
            “Fascists”, whoever or whatever they are?

            In point of fact, billionaires differ on their political views,
            from George Soros (awarded the Medal of Freedom by Joe Biden). Laurene Powell Jobs,
            and Mackenzie Scott, who support left-wing causes,
            to Elon Musk on the right.

            And as to the makeup of Trump’s administration, instrumental in determining that was
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howard_Lutnick
            Are you calling him a fascist?

            As to Eric Newhill, I think better than calling him “batsh*t crazy”, a better approach would be to highlight the issues on which you and he disagree.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            Keith,
            People like TonyL and Stefan are hardcore ideologues. They are not interested in dialogue. It is their way or off you go to the gulag.

            See they are sophisticated and smart and virtuous. Therefore, anyone who disagrees is provincial, stupid and evil. They really believe that crap. TonyL is an immigrant from somewhere where wet markets thrive, yet he is so enlightened and superior that he will tell us Americans what’s good for us. Some others’ here have jobs that depend on them taking up revolutionary/extremist causes. Some might be homosexual, etc and materially benefitting from woke victimization culture, DEI, etc.

            Most of these guys aren’t, deep at heart, as sincere as they proclaim to be. Cognitive dissonance is strong with them. They spend a lot of time and energy posturing and preening their “goodness” and everyone else’s badness. Buying their stairway to heaven, they think.

          • TTG says:

            Eric Newhill,

            My first inclination was not to publish this, but then I remembered I let them call you batshit crazy so I had to publish it.

          • TonyL says:

            Keith Harbaugh,

            https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/usaid-security-chiefs-put-on-leave-after-trying-to-stop-musks-team-from-accessing-classified-info-officials-say

            “USAID security chiefs put on leave after trying to stop Musk’s team from accessing classified info”

            It was a lawless act. Elon Musk cannot have access to classified info, until after Trump declassified the info.

            “It comes a day after DOGE carried out a similar operation at the Treasury Department, gaining access to sensitive information including the Social Security and Medicare customer payment systems.”

            OK so now Elon Musk have access to every citizen financial records in the Treasury Department. Treasury can no longer protect the confidential information of law abiding citizens.

            Spend about a quarter-billion dollars in contribution to Trump election campaign and have that kind of unchecked power? sounds like fascism.

          • TonyL says:

            Please make that
            “OK so now Elon Musk’s team have access…”

          • Eric Newhill says:

            NPR?

            There’s another problem; fake and biased story telling that ideologues believe without question.

            Take a deep breath. Relax. Maybe Musk, as an admin employee, has been given the clearance to view the data. Did you think of that? Or maybe Trump did declassify the data. Or maybe the data isn’t classified in the first place.

            Also, the Treasury Dept has always had access to the data. You trust the federal employees with access why exactly? You just loves you some big government and your just know it would never do wrong? Well, Trump and Musk are now the big government. Learn to love them.

          • TonyL says:

            Keith Harbaugh,

            “I think better than calling him “batsh*t crazy”, a better approach would be to highlight the issues on which you and he disagree.”

            Thank you! point taken.

            OTOH, perhaps you’ve missed the long running argument a few commenters including me have with Eric Newhill. The argument was about how he is a racist, islamophobic, and a supporter of the genocide in Gaza. I think we have been respectful enough. But lately, responding to more and more juvenile comments from Eric is a waste of time, so I stopped responding to him directly. Life is short.

  3. ked says:

    “Request Visual Separation”
    maybe it should have been denied & the helo come under Tower control. maybe the airspace is so restricted & congested there should be no reliance on Visual awareness within some radius of National. this pilot’s analysis provides a plausible theory. very sad all around.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfgllf1L9_4

  4. Eric Newhill says:

    It is idiotic – willfully and wantonly reckless – to have military helos flapping around anywhere near the flight path of commercial airliners on approach and take-off fro a busy airport; especially night training missions when the helo pilots might have been wearing NODs, which would reduce peripherally vision, confuse distance and blur lit images.

    300 hundred feet separation between a helo and an airliner? Yeah – that is accident waiting to happen. Who really thinks that is ok? The Army should train out over the ocean or the hills of W. VA – somewhere like that.

    The day before the crash, at the same airport, a commercial jet had to abort a landing because a stupid Army helo was posing a risk. The transcripts are available that prove it happened. Why no immediate communication between FAA and Army about it? Why no immediate cessation of ill-planned and dangerous training missions? DEI or just regular every day government employee lazy boneheads is a distinction without meaning.

    Whoever in the Army is in command of these missions should be brought up on charges.

    • Stefan says:

      Having lived and worked in the area since 2003 I can tell you they have been doing this for decades. I agree it seems an accident wait to happen and finally did. Much of these helo flights are used to transport ranking officers between bases in the area. Maybe they could just drive and deal with the traffic like the rest of us? Is there is urgent need to get officers from one spot to another, 10-30 miles apart that necessitate using helicopters?

      The low level flights make for some interesting viewing if you live in the area. I used to live off 395 and Seminary Road. They would fly super low coming into the Pentagon about a mile from my house. I had a friend who lived in Seminary Towers, a high rise apartment building maybe less then a mile from the Pentagon. She was on the 9th floor and they would literally come right between the buildings above the 395 on their way home.

      • Eric Newhill says:

        Seen it myself, Stefan. I imagine that some kind of exclusive helo corridors could be established.

        The helo that caused the crash was apparently on a ‘continuity of government’ training mission. Schedule that kind of thing to happen after the commercial flights are done flying. Apply some common sense. Remind everyone all the time that Murphy is alive and lurking – and complacent kills.

  5. Keith Harbaugh says:

    Didn’t both pilots have eyes?
    Both the chopper and the airliner had blinking lights.
    Or maybe each tried to avert the collision, and ended up steering into each other.
    Be useful if we can get a precise flight path for each.

  6. John says:

    There must have been several failures to make something like this possible.

  7. leith says:

    DC is infested with helicopters – Army, USAF, DC City police helos, three or four VA & MD county sheriff helos, VA & MD state police birds, Feds Park Police, medevac choppers from several hospitals, Customs & Border Patrol, Coast Guard, and of course HMX-1 carrying the Prez. Plus the ten or so fixed wing airfields within spitting distance of the Capitol. It’s the most congested airspace in the world.

    • Fred says:

      leith,

      are those infestations all in the air at the same time landing at the same airport?
      Just joshing.

      What’s the flight altitude directed by FAA and the publish traffic pattern for helicopter traffic landing at Reagan? How about aircraft? Do they fly over all that fine housing in Northern Virginia? (They fly right over my home down here in FL.) The stuff full of voters, or do 1 or more type of aircraft fly along the river before turning towards the runway at the end? Would that policy decision at FAA leadership level have any impact on this accident?

      • leith says:

        Fred –

        You mean the FAA leadership that was ejected by the African immigrant, because they were investigating a safety violation at SpaceX?

        • Eric Newhill says:

          Leith,
          What does Obama have to do with SpaceX?

          • TTG says:

            Eric Newhill,

            Musk is the African American leith was referring to. He may also be an illegal alien, subject to deportation, due to his early work here on a student visa.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            TTG,
            Musk should just go to the same people that cooked up Obama’s paperwork. Tie up those loose ends.

          • TTG says:

            Eric Newhill,

            You mean the Hawaii State Department of Health only a few blocks from Iolani Palace? That’s where I got both my sons birth certificates that look just like Obama’s.

        • Fred says:

          Leith,

          What is the flight altitude required by FAA? Think it changed in 8 days? Too hard to understand?

          • leith says:

            Fred –

            How many years has that low-altitude-helicopter-corridor been in effect? You think it changed in the last four years? Or has it been in effect since 2019? Or perhaps years or decades earlier? Did both the PSA airliner and the Blackhawk have radar altimeters? And did the crews adjust their altimeters to the correct air pressure at DCA, or were they depending on GPS?

        • Eric Newhill says:

          TTG,
          Kind of like voter registration. Just because it’s on an official form, doesn’t make it truth. Anyone can obtain an official form and write whatever they want to on it.

  8. scott s. says:

    There is one published instrument procedure for RWY 33 — RNAV (GPS) RWY 33. That procedure is for an RNAV approach to waypoint IDTEK which is 1.4NM from the runway threshold with a minimum altitude of 590 until pilot has a visual on the runway. Visual guidance is a PAPI with 3 degree glideslope.

    In this case is appears the RJ was flying the ILS RWY 01 approach until ATC approach directed a circle approach to RWY 33. Not sure at what altitude the RJ was circling but assume it was on glideslope when on the final approach (334 degrees magnetic).

    The Class B airspace in that area is surface to 10,000 ft. You can’t enter without ATC permission. There’s also a flight restricted zone (SFRA), created after 9-11. (Was living in Md at the time and if you look at the chart you see the zone curves around Freeway Airport that you can see driving US 50 to Annapolis. That was a big deal due to the GA that like that airport.)

    As far as hiring, might want to check out Brigida v. Buttigieg in the DC District Court, a class action complaining about the FAA’s ATC hiring use of a biographical questionaire that was used to pre-select candidates prior to testing for skills This change was pushed by National Black Coalition of Federal Aviation Employees.

    Visual separation at night puts the onus on the pilot. In a complex visual environment could see the helo pilots mistaking something for the RJ.

  9. Poul says:

    CNN with new videos on the impact. One would need pilot experience to judge if this was a voidable in any way when you get that close.

    https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1885308130315166083

  10. Mark Logan says:

    TTG,

    Close. When at a 200 ft AGL decision point, you are typically around half a mile (approximately 2,600 feet) from the designed touch-down zone, which is typically at least 500 ft from the runway threshold in an ILS approach. However this aircraft, I read, was diverting to an adjacent runway. “Circle to land” in VFR conditions renders the standard ILS glidepath somewhat moot, but not entirely so. Everybody strives for a “stabilized” approach profile, and that’s always somewhere in the vicinity of that 3 degree angle.

    I would guestimate the altitude of the aircraft, at 4,000 feet from the touch down zone on a circling approach as about 400 ft. Some reports are that the chopper was WAY higher than it was supposed to be. Nope, just a bit higher is all it would take.

    I have listened to the ATC tape and would guess the most likely explanation for the chopper reporting traffic-in-sight but hitting it anyway will be that he had the wrong plane in sight. There were a string of planes on that approach, and the controller designated the traffic to the chopper by aircraft type and not by relative direction…as in one o’clock, twelve, or eleven o’clock. This works well enough in daylight but at night all aircraft are just lights and aircraft make/model is not readily apparent.

    I would add that on a collision course relative bearing stays the same while distance decreases, making the lights appear stationary and easy to confuse with a ground source when in a big city. This is one of the reasons nearly all aircraft have strobe lights, but to the point, our minds pick up moving, or apparently moving, things faster than they pick up stationary things. Once focused on the wrong target it would be easy to stay there.

  11. Tidewater says:

    Wouldn’t a continuity of government plan mean that the whole idea is to get the President and a few others down the river to the small, riverside Quantico airfield and HMX-1? That’s where Marine One is based. From there, maybe up to the new Greenbriar?

  12. Eric Newhill says:

    I have come to respect this guy (Gray Hughes). He never misses. He is anti-conspiracy theory and goes with the evidence, whatever political sacred cow may be gored. That helo had no business being on that flight path regardless of elevation. 200 feet, 300, 400 – doesn’t matter.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0loZIUQze-g

  13. Keith Harbaugh says:

    Here is a good article on the Army people in the helo:

    https://6abc.com/post/army-black-hawk-crew-involved-dc-crash-made-top-pilots-thousands-hours-experience/15849913/

    the male instructor pilot had more than 1,000 hours of flight time,
    the female pilot who was commanding the flight at the time had more than 500 hours of flight time, and
    the crew chief was also said to have hundreds of hours of flight time.

    Still no name of the pilot.

  14. TonyL says:

    All,

    Please read Mark Logan’s comment at January 31, 2025 at 5:18 pm. Full of insight, as only experienced aviators can explain so well.

    And please ignore our resident troll with the “Female”, “Muslim”, “DEI” crap. He/she/it got nothing but vitriol in the time of tragedy.

  15. Bubba Schwartz says:

    The airliner was circling to land — a visual maneuver usually requiring heading changes while maneuvering to the runway. The pilot’s eyes are outside, acquiring the necessary visual references to land.

    IF the helo pilot saw the correct airliner, she most likely could not discern its heading changes and thus flew into it.

    Night VFR traffic through a Terminal control area should be banned.

    500 hrs and 1000 hrs of flight time is NOT heavily experienced, even for helos, where the avg sortie might be 1.5 hrs.

    One’s sex has little to do with flying skill, but would like to know if other “gender” (Lord, how I hate that word) issues were involved. I would also like to see the crew’s training records.

    My 2 cents. Your mileage may vary.

    Written as a retired military & commercial pilot.

    • Mark Logan says:

      Bubba,

      If I may add to your post: On the subject of attention, a helo pilot flying low at night will also dedicate a large percentage of his or her attention to terrain.

      • Stefan says:

        Terrain is very important here. There are MANY buildings in the general area that would potentially be above 200 feet tall.

        • Keith Harbaugh says:

          Stefan:
          The crash occurred over the Potomac River.
          No buildings, tall or otherwise, there.

        • TTG says:

          Stefan,

          The tallest structure, well south of the crash site is the MGM Hotel and Casino at 475 feet. The Woodrow Wilson Bridge nearby is 70 feet tall and the National Harbor Ferris Wheel jutting out into the river is 180 feet tall.

  16. Tidewater says:

    Tidewater to Tidewater,

    The Greenbrier resort bunker was 1959, of course. I think that the hotel will show it to you. Now it is Raven Rock Mountain Complex (RRMC), right on the border of Maryland and Pennsylvania near Blue Ridge Summit.

    • Eric Newhill says:

      Keith,
      Not an experienced at all. 450 hours (the 500 is being revised downward) over 5 years is nothing. Training and qualification set backs? Favoritism from Biden admin associates + DEI? Time will tell.

  17. Fred says:

    Certified pilot with 5 experienced years experience totaling 500 flight hours.
    500 hrs in 5 years?
    100 hours a YEAR.
    8.5 hrs a month??

    Sounds like someone who is assigned a task without flying duties trying to maintain flight pay. How many other pilots have been doing that these past 4 years. How much money per month is that? Same an equivalent on active duty when senior hours sailed aboard out ship as “observers” on some of our shorter training (weekly post major deployment) assignments. These were senior officers not junior and they went ship to ship to ship in the squadron. Not sure if that is applicable here, or why juniors would be doing that. Something appears amiss.

    • TTG says:

      Fred,

      How long was her assignment to the White House? One year? Longer? After only a few weeks back on flight status, it’s more a matter of being rusty than number of flight hours.

      • Eric Newhill says:

        TTG,
        Rusty pilots have no business flying under or around commercial airliners on approach and take-off. That is crazy. Apply the WD-40 over unpopulated areas.

        Seriously question – would you walk your loved ones onto a commercial jet knowing that rusty helo pilots would be night flying, within rock throwing distance, underneath them?

        • TTG says:

          Eric Newhill,

          I would no longer fly out of DCA and advise my sons to do the same now knowing how it works. Congress keeps pushing for more flights out of pure convenience. The FAA should cut the number of flight and probably cut the operating hours and ban helo traffic so close to the airport during operating hours. That flight paths cross so close to the end of a runway is absolutely crazy. The phrase “accident waiting to happen” is quite apt.

          • TonyL says:

            TTG,

            “That flight paths cross so close to the end of a runway is absolutely crazy. The phrase “accident waiting to happen” is quite apt’

            Yes. I worked in Air Traffic Control software projects on and off for many years. “Absolutely crazy” is even more apt.

            We always flown to Dulles and stayed in Reston.

      • Fred says:

        TTG,

        Been on the road. Didn’t know she was assigned to Biden’s WH staff. Why did that happen? DEI promotion? It would explain the news shows the social media scrubbed before the name is released. Interesting given how hard it is for family of decedants to get access to review anything.

        This is a tragic event, however these helos looks like glorified flying taxis. Just how many people at CIA or pentagon are that essential they need a flying ride to Reagan? We should stop all that crap. Or change the flight routes.

        • TTG says:

          Fred,

          I thought these White House assignments were like any other tour of duty, but the military social aides are very different. They are not a permanent change of station. It’s a program open to anyone assigned to the MDW that requires 2 to 4 evenings a week. It’s like an extra duty, but it is voluntary. I’m sure it has career perks. So the pilot was assigned to the 12th Aviation Battalion at Belvoir for quite a while.

          The FAA should definitely change or abolish that route 4 that flies right by DCA. If it’s ever needed, operations art DCA should be shut down as needed.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            TTG,
            I seems obvious to me that She was focused on being the most awesome first woman to overachieve some glorious milepost. A real driven, type-A personality – except everyone is stupid when in their 20s and even more so when the social structure confirms you as an up and coming ultimate role model. Probably thought she was the most hotshot pilot to ever climb into a cockpit. That is a recipe for disaster, and it is most definitely related to DEI culture.

            And don’t try to BS me. Would you have wanted a self-styled Rambo wannabe on your SF team? It’s the same thing.

            I don’t even blame her. I blame the shallow asshats that shape our culture with stupid memes, who, had they been real adults, would have tempered her ambition and guided her to more reasonable expectations.

            Sure, be a pilot, but focus on piloting 24/7 and forget about all the social promoting glad handing. It is the quiet professionals, in all walks of life, who keep the trains running on time – and on the tracks; not the bigger than life cultural fad of the moment heroes, nor the politicians, nor the academics, nor whatever other shriveled midget sorcerers sit behind the curtain.

          • TTG says:

            Eric Newhill,

            You sure have constructed an elaborate life and psychology in your head for that pilot. If she was a real overachiever and career climber, she would have sought deployments. Even if she did, why would that be related to DEI culture? White men can also be overachievers and career climbers. DEI might get women in the door, but in this case, she seemed to a competent ROTC cadet. Being a DMG probably got her the branch she wanted, although I don’t know why she wouldn’t just go for Medical Corps and free medical school. She planned on being a medical doctor. Maybe she tried, didn’t make it and had to settle for aviation. So much for DEI.

            In my day, no one went into SF to be a Rambo-type. They went for the Ranger Battalions or Delta selection, although Delta didn’t want any Rambo-types either.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            Ha ha, yeah, I sure did construct an elaborate life and psychology in my head for that pilot. I’m usually dialed in when I do that. Not 100% though. Time will tell. The NTSB is the only none corrupt team in the US government. I trust they will have telling report for us in 6 months to a year.

          • leith says:

            She was a DMG? Now there’s an Arcane Army Acronym I had to look up.

            I’ve read in an AP article she was Wash DC National Guard. Did she ever transition to Regular Army?

          • TTG says:

            leith,

            Distinguished Military Graduate, I was one. So was Colonel Lang. She was in the National Guard before and, I guess, while she was in ROTC. She was commissioned in the Regular Army in 2009. I don’t know about the DC Guard thing. She was ac tive duty as she was assigned to the 12th Aviation Battalion, an active Army unit. I remember a lot of my NCOs in my RECONDO School obtained National guard commissions or it might have been State Guards. We all thought it was pretty amusing at the time.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            TTG,
            It also appears she was an activist lesbian, which is why she was selected for the Biden WH and why thee days were required to scrub her social media/internet footprint before her name could be released. She’ s a stereotype – hence the life and psychology are easy to assemble

          • TTG says:

            Eric Newhill,

            That seems quite possible. She was definitely supportive of LBGTQ causes at the very least. And the family scrubbed all her social media before allowing her name to be released.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            TTG,
            More life/psychology. Daddy was a physician. Daughter wanted to be a physician. Driven first to more boy stuff, like Army, fly Helo. Didn’t need ROTC to pay for college because Daddy wealthy. In fact, accepted into ROTC program after already in college (a little bit unusual). Strong need to prove herself as independent and a little rebellious (lesbian activism, etc), yet also bound to Daddy figure in a tete a tete type relationship. Lots of internal conflict/stress over freedom to develop as independent person v prove to Daddy that she is as good as any boy (man).

            Daddy probably didn’t pay enough attention, or not the type a girl could relate to. So seeks public accolades to compensate.

            Aligns with progressive cause because that is against the “patriarchy” – progressive cause and personal psychology match. Internalizes politics. Trump wins. She has a serious psychological break. Trump, to her = worst aspects of Daddy. Seeks recognition in final act of rebellion, which is also ultimate unmanageable stress relief, and deliberately flies helo into RCJ.

            Social media posts contained obvious clues, perhaps outright explanations, of what she was going to do and why. That is why name release by Army went beyond the normal 24 hours for notice of family. The Army had to take that stuff down.

            How could parents take down social media? What independent 20 something year old gives their parents their passwords? Social media accounts on left leaning platforms that would cooperate with the Army in cover up.

            BTW, watching videos of the collision, there is no freaking way she didn’t see the landing lights of the RCJ. BS about focus on wrong commercial jet makes no sense. ATC told helo to go around behind the RCJ – on recording. There was absolutely no helo move to go around behind any commercial airliner, right or wrong. None. So wrong airliner in visual is merely media chaff.

            Elevation of helo seems to be chaff as well. 100 foot vertical clearance seems risky as hell, yes, NO margin for error. However, it is worse. Knowledgeable sources say that downward air pressure from jet would most likely wreck a helo, or fixed wing, 100 feet below. Makes sense given the physics involved in commercial jet fixed wing flight.

            Something very weird happened over the Potomac that night. Thankfully, the Trump admin is more likely than not to allow the truth to come out. We’ll talk again about this in six months to a year; maybe sooner given Trump.

    • leith says:

      Fred –

      Fudging flight pay and sea pay is a rip off. But 500 hours sounds right to me. A VFW bud tells me that active duty Army helo pilots are now only getting 90 to 150 hours flight time per year depending on the bird. Unlike the several hundred per year they were flying during hostilities.

      • Eric Newhill says:

        Your buddies at the VFW were already trained up, which probably accounted for the bulk of 500 Hours +/-. I just listened to a retired BH pilot state that 450 hours, 500 hours, whatever it really is, is nothing.

        This was an inexperienced trainee, flying rather fast, off course, in a high risk sector. The co-pilot wasn’t exactly a seasoned pro either, but more experienced than Cpt Lobach. We may never know the interpersonal dynamics inside the helo that night, but they screwed up big time and neither pilot corrected it.

        • leith says:

          Eric –

          I trust my source. But do tell me again why there was only one air traffic controller instead of two.

      • Fred says:

        Leith,

        3 hours a week sounds like depression era training levels. That’s a disgrace.

        • Eric Newhill says:

          Fred,
          I could F’up a lot of things with only three hours a week involvement. Hell, my cat would probably die if my total focus on her wellbeing was only three a week.

          There is a huge body of science dedicated to achieving and maintaining proficiency, let alone improving performance concerning complex and/or high skill req. tasks. Three hours a week ain’t it.

          • TTG says:

            Eric Newhill,

            From what I can find, Army pilots spend more time in a simulator than actually flying unless deployed. Even Army flight training, which lasts a year to 18 months, consists of more simulator time than flight time.

  18. TV says:

    Preventable by some common sense, which is generally lacking in government and the military.
    Who thinks it’s a good idea to fly helicopters repeatedly in the flight path of commercial flights?

    • Mark Logan says:

      TV,
      Likely a terminal procedure rationalized into existence against better judgement for noise-abatement. Wouldn’t be at all surprised it has been in place for decades. We can all safely bet our houses it will be modified though.

  19. Tidewater says:

    The issue here that has to be taken into account is the absolute priority of getting a few senior leaders in the chain of command safely out of DC and up to the Raven Rock Mountain Complex (RRMC) in Pennsylvania –where there is room for five thousand people to run a lawful underground civilian government–before an incoming one megaton thermonuclear missile burns Washington D.C. off the map. I am now reading (on Kindle) some of the finest reporting I have ever come across. This is ‘Nuclear War: A Scenario’ by Annie Jacobsen. It answers some of the questions raised in this thread.

  20. Peter Reichard says:

    The female pilot was receiving her required night checkout and was likely operating the controls at the moment of impact. Her experience and skill levels are largely irrelevant however as the instructor is pilot in command and has the overall responsibility for the safe conduct of the flight and with dual controls, the ability to instantly take over flying the aircraft. To the extent that the collision was due to pilot error (true in about three quarters of all accidents) the burden would be more on him. There are often multiple factors involved and a “chain of events” leading to a crash. I always withhold judgement as over the years I have found that as more information trickles in my initial assessment has often been completely wrong. It is absurd to blame this on DEI right off the bat. For the record 886 of my 11,000 hours are as a flight instructor.

    • Eric Newhill says:

      Peter Reichard,
      The DEI comments, at least in my case, are a reaction to the knee jerk pearl clutching by our resident diehard political progressives leaping into the comments with false hyperbolic statements like, “Trump has already decided that the accident was caused by DEI practices”.

      Trump actually only used the tragedy to highlight why we simply need the best people hired into ATC and pilot positions, not hiring based on quotas.

      Yes – ultimately the majority of aircraft crashes are pilot error. That the helo was doing the wrong things and ran into a commercial jet that was doing the right things, very strongly suggests pilot error on the part of the Blackhawk; like 99% + certainty.

      However, the NTSB will thoroughly investigate and the answers to all of our questions will be known in time. Looking into the life and psychology of the helo pilots will be part of the investigation.

      • Peter Reichard says:

        Eric, nothing personal. I realize you catch a lot of flak here but I rather enjoy your posts even when I disagree with them, so carry on as it keeps the blog lively. By the way I am a big fan of diversity but not DEI programs which often have a divisive rather than the intended unifying effect, sometimes lower standards and/or promote people to levels beyond their competency. This should have no place in aviation. I also agree with you about the NTSB being straight shooters, let’s wait and see what they come up with.

        • Eric Newhill says:

          Thanks, Peter.

          For the record, I could care less about diversity, as term is usually used, because if we are all on the same team, doing our best as members of the team, that is all that counts. I mean who, on a high functioning team, is even looking at skin color, gender or any of that? That is something only juvenile whiners, mean morons and hustlers would consider, IMO.

          Now diversity of skill sets can be important. Everyone brings different strengths to a team – and that kind of diversity IS important. That kind of diversity has nothing to do with skin color or gender.

          But yeah, we’ve all seen DEI lower standards so that quotas can be filled. DEI is antithetical to ending the very problem it seeks to

  21. English Outsider says:

    Seem to be a lot of differing views about Donald Trump here, TTG. Less about what he’s doing.

    I’m watching awed the assault on the status quo types in Washington. It’s coordinated, very fast moving, and there’s got to be a team of strategists in behind who’ve been planning it for months. Never seen anything like it. It’s nothing less than a revolution.

    No idea how it’s going to turn out. But whether it works or whether it all goes down in flames it’s going to be nothing like that somewhat cautious first term. And the ambulatory cadavers running our affairs in Europe don’t know whether they’re coming or going. But they never have, so not a lot of difference there.

    Meantime we’ve not been idle our side of the Atlantic:-

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-ukraine-100-year-partnership-declaration/uk-ukraine-100-year-partnership-declaration#:~:text=The%20UK%20will%20provide%20Ukraine,as%20needed%20to%20support%20Ukraine.

    1.4. “The UK will provide Ukraine with annual military assistance of no less than £3 billion a year until 2030/31 and for as long as needed to support Ukraine. “

    I suppose in American terms that’ll scale up to something like 15 billion a year. Plus whatever we pay out for our Intel and associated types who’ve been crawling all over the country like lice. The Great Game our masters are so set on comes expensive.

    …………………………

    I was very sad to read of the accident. That’s a shocking way to go, and for so many, whatever the cause.

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