VATICAN CITY, April 26 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in Rome for the funeral of Pope Francis, met one-on-one in a marble-lined Vatican basilica on Saturday to try to revive faltering efforts to end Russia’s war with Ukraine.
Zelenskiy said the meeting could prove historic if it delivers the kind of peace he is hoping for, and a White House spokesperson called it “very productive.” The two leaders, leaning in close to each other with no aides around them while seated in St. Peter’s Basilica, spoke for about 15 minutes, according to Zelenskiy’s office, and images of the meeting released by Kyiv and Washington.
The meeting at the Vatican, their first since an angry encounter in the Oval Office in Washington in February, comes at a critical time in negotiations aimed at bringing an end to fighting between Ukraine and Russia. After Pope Francis’s funeral service, Trump boarded Air Force One and departed Rome. While in the air, he published a social media post in which he took a tough tone on Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“There was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days,” Trump posted on Truth Social. Twelve people were killed on Thursday when a missile fired by Russia hit a Kyiv apartment block. “It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions?’ Too many people are dying!!!” Trump wrote. Following Trump’s remarks, Republican U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham said the Senate is poised to move forward on bipartisan legislation that would impose trade sanctions on countries that purchase Russian oil, gas and other products. “The Senate stands ready to move in this direction and will do so overwhelmingly if Russia does not embrace an honorable, just and enduring peace,” Graham posted on X. Trump’s post was a departure from his usual rhetoric that has seen the toughest criticism directed at Zelenskiy, while he has spoken positively about Putin.
In a post on social media platform Telegram, Zelenskiy wrote: “Good meeting. One-on-one, we managed to discuss a lot. We hope for a result from all the things that were spoken about.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraines-zelenskiy-met-trump-rome-zelenskiys-office-says-2025-04-26
Comment: I first planned on titling this post, “Vladimir, STOP!” from Trump’s earlier reaction to a massive Russian missile strike on a Kyiv apartment block. I do believe he is genuinely repulsed by the continued death and destruction of this war. At the very least, he views it as an unnecessary waste. I don’t think he understands how either side is invested in the outcome of the conflict. He certainly doesn’t seem to understand why the Ukrainians are willing to continue fighting for their country against all odds. Being so transactional, he has about as much understanding of these things as a pig looking at a wristwatch.
Still, it seems to have been a useful talk sitting face to face. Zelenskiy had this to say on X after the meeting, far different than the last time they met.
Good meeting. We discussed a lot one on one. Hoping for results on everything we covered. Protecting lives of our people. Full and unconditional ceasefire. Reliable and lasting peace that will prevent another war from breaking out. Very symbolic meeting that has potential to become historic, if we achieve joint results. Thank you @POTUS
On a transactional level, Trump now realizes he is not getting anything of value from Putin, especially in the short term. In fact he wonders whether Putin is just tapping him along. I never heard it put like that. Must be a New York thing meaning the same as Putin is jerking him around. That realization is probably bothering him more than the war’s continuing death and destruction. But will be do something about it? Will he up the pressure on Putin through additional sanctions and economic measures as he suggested? Will he sell Zelenskiy the air defense systems he recently asked for and is willing to pay $15 billion for? We’ll see.
TTG
The EU is still ignoring the crux of this war which was obvious before it started. I tried to explain this to Col Lang. Ukraine does not have the bodies to continue this much longer. It will absolutely run out of bodies.
Nothing to do about their fighting spirit. They fight hard enough if not harder. Nobody is questioning that fact. They will run out of bodies though. No way around it. Either accept it now or accept it later. It does not matter. Russia is not giving up anything. Either come to the table now or Ukraine dies.
babelthuap,
Both Ukraine and Russia have a long way to go before the war stops because of a lack of manpower. In WWII Ukraine had 2.5 million killed on the battlefield, over 5.5 million civilians killed. Total casualties were between 8 and 14 million. And they went on to win that war.
TTG,
The European leadership are willing to have another million Ukrainians butchered? Who will pay for all the monetary costs of continuing the war?
Fred,
Seizure of Russian assets?
TTG,
And who gets paid with all that? Then which countries willingly invest in Europe afterwards? And whose sending troops
Fred,
Last July, the EU transferred 1.5 billion euros to Ukraine from frozen Russian assets. Another 1.9 billion was transferred this month. The EU will also use these funds to purchase weapons and ammo for Ukraine. And they haven’t touched the principal, yet. Who will invest in Europe? Not Russia. And no one is sending troops… yet.
TTG,
You are a little to close to the poison sumac wrapped around that scrub oak you are staring at to see the cesspool of waste, human and monetary, in the forest of Ukraine. Russia won’t invest in Europe? Har har har.
As I asked Lars here or on another thread, how’s the ECB doing? What tax authority does it independently have (zero), what are the German pension funds obligated to invest a majority of their assets in – government bonds, including the ones that not long ago paid negative rates when issued. Those people are broke and desperate. Meanwhile in the EU’s West Spain just suffered a solar powered grid collapse. No politicians there have the courage to call climate change and the regulatory decisions made under that rubric a fraud, or even wrong. They can defend their own borders from human smuggling from Africa. They will defeat no one but their own disarmed citizens.
Ukraine has lost a lot more than 8 million in this conflict factoring in refugees, separatists regions and deaths on the battlefield to include civilians.
Ukraine lost in 2014 when the CIA along with Nuland and company overthrew the government. The tea leaves are saying it will go back to being a bunch of poor bloodland factions like during WWII.
The population of Ukraine was approximately 30,960,221 based on a census conducted in 1939. In 2023, it was 37 million.
The population of Ukraine was over 50M when it was part of the Soviet Union:
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/UKR/ukraine/population
Nobody knows the population now. Ukraine is never going to reveal that number or their dead. There are upward of 6M refugees from some reports. They will never get back to over 50M for a long long time without importing non Ukrainians. That is the reality. They were better off being part of Russia from a population standpoint. At least honor that fact.
babelthuap,
The population was also approximately 30,960,221 when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union. And that was just prior to WWII. Will they get back to 50 million? I doubt it. The population has been dropping steadily since shortly after her independence. Ukraine was no longer a captive nation at that point. The same happened throughout Eastern Europe and the Baltics once the Soviet Union fell. A good number of those 6 million refugees will return after the war is over. Most were deliberately sent out of the country when the war started.
Russia has a big economic problem, no matter how much some are denying it. They also put a lot of faith in Trump favoring their side, not realizing that he is about as solid as a bowl of Jello. There is still a lot of rather lethal weapons still arriving in Ukraine and if the US goes after countries that buy Russian oil, that economy will suffer further. The only thing holding Russia together now is increased suppression and that also adds to their future abilities. This is not over by a long shot.
Lars – I’m sure that the Russians would like the resumption of normal diplomatic relations with the US. It’s ridiculous, probably dangerous, for two such powerful countries to be permanently at loggerheads. I don’t believe, however, that they “put a lot of faith in Trump favouring their side.” As your President is aware, the objectives of the SMO will be achieved whether the US agrees or not.
A Mr Palmer, on Andrei Martyanov’s site, draws attention to a most perceptive examination by Alastair Crooke of the Russian attitude to the negotiations with Trump A brief summary:-
Crooke looks briefly at the faction fighting within the current American administration. He then points out that the Russians can’t be sure that any understanding with Trump will come to anything because they don’t know how that faction fighting will go.
Putin would find himself in a most awkward position if he came to an understanding with Trump and then found, maybe after the midterms, that Trump couldn’t follow through because of internal political opposition.
Set to the three minutes starting at round 20.50:-
https://youtu.be/yo1wbU0nwBI?t=1248
… If Trump decides on a true rapprochement, and if he can hold to that against intense European and internal opposition, then the Russians’ll find it worthwhile coming to an understanding with him. If not, then the SMO is pursued to its inevitable end.
A lot of ifs in that summary. Trump’s an unusual man so maybe he’ll find a way past the problem. But it does look as if he’s either going to have to walk away, and risk the Democrats accusing him of ratting on the Ukrainians, or he’s going to have to take over Biden’s war.
Whatever course Trump adopts it won’t make much difference to the final result. This war is lost either way and in due course the Ukrainians will find themselves demilitarised and denazified. It’ll make a significant difference to the Ukrainians themselves. If Trump walks away right now fewer Ukrainians will die. That’s the best he can do for them.
………………………
On “increased suppression” I don’t believe that’s what’s holding Russia together. Putin’s approval ratings usually hover around 70%.
The Russians know they’re under sustained attack from the West. In those circumstances they’re doing what you or I would do were our own countries under attack. They’ll take a leaf out of Benjamin Franklin’s book and say we must indeed all hang together or, most assuredly, we shall all hang separately. What other reaction should we have expected, after poking the Bear as vigorously as we did?
EO,
I agree with you, Palmer and Crook that Moscow cannot depend on the US, especially under Trump, for her future. Russia would be foolish to do so.
Your absolute faith in Russia eventually achieving her SMO objectives is a sight to behold. It’s been over three years now and a government opposed to Moscow is still in place in Kyiv. The Ukrainian military is still resisting the Russian invasion. Moscow’s territorial gains since late 2022 have been steady, but modest and at a great price in men and material. They are a long way from achieving their SMO objectives.
GOOD Evening TTG…Both You and My English
Counter Part…Mr. EO..Have A Very Good Conversation
Going That Involves THE Most Important Issue to
Debate..And Russia And Putin…To Expose….In
TRUE… Pat Lang And Larry Johnson Tradition
Problem: Every One From DC..To Ukraine..And
Russia is Lying..Covering uo..Negoiating
In Secret…. And Ukraine Continues To
SUffer Losses..And Tragic DDamage…
Lack of Weapons..And Manpower…
Solution: To Consider..Turn Hal The
Population of Ukraine..NATO
Blue..Authorized,,To USE ALL
Deadly Force..In Self Defense
JIM
TTG and Forum ..I see Nothing but This
as a Trump Photo Op..In Public..For Publicity
an all that other stuff..Wink..I dont know why
Zelinsky is leaning so Close to Trump..Wispering.
rump Had 100 People..Plus Security…..Half Way Out To Venice…Heavy Armor..And To
Comment on that Russian Photo Of them
The Commando on His MC..Riding Past a
Burned Out Rusted Armored. Heavy Vehicle
along a narrow road .Used For Armed Transportnext to a Forest..Where The Ukrain Ambush Happened…I Suspect….
JIM
TTG – it’s a serious Russian loss in men and material.
The Trump administration, as the Biden administration before it, regards war as something that happens “over there”. Just another PR plus or minus in the incessant faction fighting that is US electioneering politics. Iraq, Libya, Syria, Ukraine … all as far removed from day to day American political life as a video game.
But that hazy “over there” is a real place to the men and women dying in it. What is video game to America is real to them. Proportionally the Russian losses are worse than your losses in Vietnam and make our losses in the last war the UK fought, the Falklands, look microscopic. There’ll be great numbers of families in Russia who have relatives not coming home, or coming home maimed, or coming home with PTSD.
That was apparent at the very start. They took several thousand casualties in the first few days partly because, as Chirkin said, they were working to tight ROE. Partly because that sort of fighting has to be expensive in casualties.
And that should have been the end of it. They’d wrong-footed us strategically and had more or less demolished our proxy army as a coherent fighting force.
It wasn’t the end of it. The European politicians were stuck in their Barbarossa 2. They only had one plan and that was it. And the Biden administration took the cold-blooded decision to continue fighting a lost war. To “bleed” the Russians if they couldn’t defeat them. That that meant bleeding the proxies ten times worse was no concern of theirs. Provided the body bags weren’t coming home to the States to show the voters it was more than just a game played “over there”.
As a military enterprise this war was the disgrace of the West. Amateur night Generals herding the proxies into one debacle after another. Chestfuls of medals strutting around as if they were real soldiers. The NATO forces themselves revealed as boondoggle pretences fit for little more than terrorising goat herders. Loathsome business and Trump has the right instincts wanting to get shot of it.
I don’t think he’s yet grasped that the Russians, now they’ve been well and truly “bled”, will do whatever it takes to ensure that NATO can’t use Ukraine, or any part of it, as a means of “bleeding” them in future. That much they owe to the families of their fallen.
EO,
Nor do I think you’ve grasped that the Ukrainians, “now they’ve been well and truly “bled”, will do whatever it takes to ensure that” Russia does not rule Ukraine again. “That much they owe to the families of their fallen.” I’ve never taken you for falling into the Ukraine and Ukrainians shouldn’t exist” camp.
Lars,
I defer to TTG on the military war because he has the best track record I have seen, and I defer to @BenAris on the economic war because, on that, he has the best track record I have seen.
@BenAris says that Russia’s economy is doing just fine:
https://x.com/bneeditor/status/1917089154229506529
Perhaps it is the US that will have economic problems in the coming year.
James,
I do see certain sectors of Russia’s economy in very bad shape, like the rail system, but Russia is not on the verge of collapse. I think that’s due to Putin’s preparation of the economy prior to the war and some excellent economic management. However, it’s mainly due to the resilience of the Russian people. They can suck it up and make do far better than Western societies. I still wouldn’t say Russia’s economy is doing just fine. GDP growth seems to be a poor indicator of economic health. Russia’s growth is in armaments production which is pissed away on the battlefield as fast as it’s made. That’s not healthy.
TTG…Regarding Russian Production..and that
Russian Motor Cycle Photo of The Russian
Commando Riding Past That Burned Out Vehicle..
Once I Thought They may be riding LR Electric
Bikes. But as I Look At that Bikes Engine..Gear Boxes
it looks klke a Combustion Engine.. Which means
The Russians Have invented A Noisless,,Smokeless
Exhaust System…It Would Be interesting To See The
Other Side of That Bike..
OT..Oil went Down today..Imonitor CONICO,,
The Markets Are Down..
Isnt Trump Violating The LAWS..Using His Office to
Promote and sell His Own Merchandise..And Mint
Coins with HIS Image..???
Regarding That Person Posting Under the name
Buehler.. I researched Back Story of That Name
Buehler….Last Name..Very Old Early German..
Name..Prominate Family..Nobels..The Buehler
Family Coat of ARMS..From That Period.. Has
For its Colors RED….GOLD..and A Yellow ..
DOUBLE CROSS..on Red..On The Shield being
Held By An Armored Knights Helmet..
The Top of His Helmet..Has the Side of A LION.
Standing on Its Hind Legs..Facing Left..The Knight is
wearing a Spaced Red and yellow Crown..
Most Of Thr BUEHLERS who later Migrated to
America,,Lived on The East Great Lakes..To NY..
All But One..Were Active Republicans.. The Other
was Democrat..Interesting Stuff…
JIM
TTG,
I stopped listening to the ‘Russian boosters” and started listening to you on military matters when they were proven wrong several times in a row.
But on the economic side those pro-Russian partisans have, I would argue, been more correct. Elvira Nabiullina is Russia’s unsung hero who nobody in the west wants to talk about.
Latest stats from The Economist:
GDP Unemp CAB BB
USA 2.5 4.2 -3.9 -6.5
Russia 4.5 2.4 3.0 -2.3
France 0.6 7.4 0.4 -5.8
Germany -0.2 3.5 6.0 -2.8
UK 1.5 4.4 -2.7 -5.4
Japan 1.1 2.4 4.8 -2.3
GDP: GDP % change on a year ago
Unemp: Unemployment rate (%)
CAB: Current-account balance, as a % of GDP, negative is worse, this is basically a proxy for trade balance
BB: Budget balance (% of GDP), negative is worse
From:
https://www.economist.com/economic-and-financial-indicators/2025/04/24/economic-data-commodities-and-markets
James,
Nabiullina has proven a sorceress in her handling of the economy, but even she has been saying she’s running out of tricks. Still, the Russian economy is not going to collapse, but it will become increasingly difficult to wage a war.
An interesting observation made by The Duran is that three chairs were originally being set up, and then one was unceremoniously removed.
The implication being that the third wheel was going to be Little Napolean, Jupiter himself, until Trump decided that he wasn’t interested in hearing what Macron had to say.
Trump’s in an unenviable position. He and his team know a lost war when they see it and he needs to pull out of this one fast. But if he does so he’ll be attacked by the Europeans, the Democrats and many in his own party for “losing the war”.
“We would have won if you hadn’t let us down, America”, is what the Europeans are already saying and what Trump’s opponents will be saying to Trump in the midterms.
Difficult PR conundrum.
In the real world, away from all the political theatre Trump finds it necessary to engage in, the Russians are still stuck with their 2022 SMO objectives. As far as they can they’ll play along with Trump to help him save face. But they don’t have a lot they can give him on that score given that those SMO objectives have firmed up considerably since 2022.
Not forgetting that in the real world the United States is still in a state of war with Russia. American weapons are still being delivered. American personnel are fighting alongside the proxies. As far as one can tell the most effective US contribution, the comprehensive American ISR contribution, is still providing what there is of backbone to the war effort.
The sanctions are still in force and more are threatened from time to time. No effort has been made to return blocked Russian assets. Even the little diplomatic problems – return of confiscated Russian diplomatic premises in the US, banking facilities for Russian diplomats in the US – remain unsolved. This is still the undeclared war with Russia it was in Biden’s time and the Americans are still fighting it as earnestly; with the difference that the Americans are even shorter of weapons now than then and the proxies even shorter of men.
And the nonsensical ceasefire proposals still get in the way. Of course the losing side in a lost war would like the fighting to stop before it gets as far as straight surrender! But the Americans and the European politicians are chasing dreams if they believe there’s a chance of that. When Zhukov and Konev were racing each other to Berlin and Patton was racing up the other way I’ve no doubt their opponents would have been most relieved had the Allies decided to give it a rest. As would Lee have been at Appomattox had Grant said “OK, we’ll take a break now so you can come back later for another go.” But in the real world wars don’t end like that.
This one’ll end when the Russians have achieved their SMO objectives. Trump could save tens of thousands of lives by recognising that now. Or he can hang it out a little longer and watch our proxies continue to get slaughtered in the killing fields. Those are his choices and it’s a great pity internal American politics drive him to adopt the second.
As for the wider Russian objectives, those set out on the 2021 draft treaties, with the best will in the world Trump can’t meet those. The Europeans won’t let him.
English,
Trump is not in this war but the UK, Europe, and the Borg are tied at the hip to Zelensky. Z has few options but to retire with what he has stolen and hope some disgruntled Ukrainian doesn’t kill him, or stay fighting like Jeff Davis and hope some disgruntled Ukrainian doesn’t kill him.
Fred – Zelensky was promised the earth to get him to reject the Istanbul settlement. Full American and British backing including, I’ve heard recently, security guarantees.
He was conned. Biden, or Biden’s advisers, had no intention of honouring the promises made to Zelensky. Nor did they have the muscle to honour those promises even had they tried to. In short, the Americans kept Zelensky committed to fighting though they knew there was nothing useful they could do to help him win.
I’m pretty sure the Colonel sensed that early on: that this was another US proxy the US was going to betray. Irrespective of what we think of Zelensky or of the war, that betrayal was dishonourable and that was what grated on the Colonel.
In fact, as TTG pointed out a while back, the only way the Russians could have been held was if the US had put tripwire forces in before the Russian invasion. But the US hadn’t and, the economic war failing, there was no chance of our defeating the Russians after Istanbul.
No chance in Ukraine, that is. But the US had other irons in the fire right along the perimeter of the RF from Belarus to Kazakhstan. Long shots and in the event anticipated and dealt with by the Russians but if any of those had come off the result could have been different.
In the event nothing came off and Zelensky was left holding a fistful of cheques he couldn’t cash. The photo of Zelensky at Vilnius might just have been him feeling down. But if it was a photo of a man taken for a ride and able to do nothing whatsoever about it, that was in reality what we’d done to him. Everyone’s got their own interpretation of that scene in the Oval Office but what I saw was a man being told “You’ve been conned, Mister. Live with it.”
As for his future, if he lives, seemed to me a while back his best way out is to become a lost cause figurehead. Still think that:-
“He will know that the “peace talks” the Europeans and Americans are engaging in amongst themselves are meaningless. He will know that the Russians will achieve their objective of demilitarising and denazifying the entirety of Ukraine and there will be no place in a post-war Ukraine for him.
“His post-war future, if he survives, will be as a resistance figurehead outside Ukraine. He will be an icon of the European Cold War II. He will need to be able to say that he kept the faith to the last and that means he cannot agree to the Russian conditions for ending the war.
“I doubt he’ll even be able to agree to any of the conditions of the current Kellog plan.”
Can you feel sorry for a man you don’t particularly care for? I can and do.
EO,
Colonel Lang and I spoke extensively about the Russian invasion in the early days of this war. We both saw it as a war of naked aggression and fully supported Ukraine’s resistance to that aggression. We both supported US and other Western aid to Ukraine. Although we never considered US troops entering the war, except as volunteer units (remember his A-10 equipped AVG proposal?), we wanted to see the same level of support we gave to Britain and Russia in the fight against Nazi Germany. We both saw this very clearly.
Russia will not “achieve their objective of demilitarising and denazifying the entirety of Ukraine.” After three years, the Ukrainian military is stronger and more advanced than it ever was. It has to be in order to continue resisting Russia’s naked invasion. She is actually producing more and more of her needed weapons and ammunition. And Zelenskiy’s government is still managing to uncover and fight the corruption that plagues Ukraine while fighting this war.
Will Zelenskiy run in the next election? Would he win if he did? I doubt it. The Ukrainian people will be looking for a fresh restart in my opinion.
Not being obstinate for the sake of it, TTG, but I don’t see it. Never have since early 2022. With the proviso that the Russians want to and can keep fighting Ukraine has no chance, how I’ve always seen it.
That condition, that the Russians want to and can keep fighting, was always going to be satisfied. Never thought the sanctions had a chance. Still don’t. Never thought Russia was going to be destabilised. Still don’t.
Somehow or other that Leviathan of a country has pulled itself out of the near disintegration of the ’90’s and will see the West in hell before it allows itself to be returned to that condition or worse.
That’s how I saw it then. Since then I’ve come across various military experts who’ve confirmed the military side, starting with General Lord Richards and finishing up with Commodore Jermyn, but I must say I wasn’t that bothered whether they confirmed it or not. This war was to me a done deal since 2022 and the interest has always been, how the Russians are going to cope with the problem of remnant Ukraine and whether they’re going to impose counter-sanctions on the Europeans.
On remnant Ukraine, things have firmed up since 2022. The Russians don’t want to have to occupy remnant Ukraine. They want a neutral government there, or a puppet government will do them for the time being, as long as NATO’s not around.
And remnant Ukraine looks like being smaller than it would have been in ’22. But the Russians are floating the idea of autonomy or semi-autonomy for the eight (?) majority pro-Russian oblasts so that’s still up in the air. Have to wait to see what they decide.
On counter-sanctions, those were a worrying prospect earlier. Russia could still cut Europe’s throat with an all-out embargo but it looks as if the Europeans are cutting their own throats anyway and will continue to do so, to the extent that Europe will not be in any condition to mount a serious security threat short to medium term.
If, however, the Europeans insist on keeping missiles that could be nuclear so close to Moscow then all bets are off on that. Same if they go for the minority Russian populations in the Baltics.
……………………………
I don’t know if your view, that there would not have been a war had the Russian invasion stopped at the then Donbass LoC, is one the Russians would have considered or should have considered.
You consider that Biden would not have imposed sanctions had the Russians stopped at the LoC. But the Europeans were certainly trigger happy with the sanctions. Scholz scrapped NS2 even before the Russians invaded and the Europeans were very quick with further measures. In those circumstances the Russians were I believe justified in fearing that sanctions would be imposed whatever they did or didn’t do so they might as well go all the way.
And were I Russian, I’d want to have seen Mariupol liberated after years of Azov occupation. Much the same considerations apply to Odessa, where the pro-Russian element has also taken a hammering. I believe Trump is as innocent as a babe unborn when it comes to understanding how the average Russian feels about such matters. That’s why he’s fooling around with these theatrical “peace negotiations” and cutting that odd “mineral deal”.
He ought to know what the Russian peace conditions are – they’ve repeated them often enough! – so his job is to meet them and then dress them up with the appropriate PR. Trump thinks mostly in PR terms. Difficult to blame him for that, with the midterms starting to loom.
……………………………..
This war should have stopped at Istanbul, after the Russians had confounded us strategically and shown us the sanctions were a bust. I attribute its continuation to the witless bloodlust of the European politicians and to Biden’s calculation that if he couldn’t beat the Russians at least he could seriously weaken them.
The FAFO war and, my belief, the most serious strategic miscalculation any US administration has made since Vietnam. I’m no longer one of Trump’s European supporters – Gaza is unacceptable – but I still hope he can rectify that miscalculation. Soon, if possible. The death toll in Ukraine is still high.
*Note – Commodore Jermyn. Two brief quotes:-
1. “Even now, in 2025, NATO’s Ukraine strategy is opaque, perhaps best summarized as “double-down and hope.”
2. “The truth is that NATO now exists to confront the threats created by its continuing existence. Yet as our scenario shows, NATO does not have the capacity to defeat the primary threat that its continuing existence has created.
“So perhaps this is the time to have an honest conversation about the future of NATO, and to ask two questions. How do we return to the sustainable peace in Europe that all sides to the conflict seek? Is NATO the primary obstacle to this sustainable peace?”
From Responsible Statecraft, “Right now NATO could not win a war with Russia”
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/nato-war-with-russia/
Though I do find the Colonel’s view more relevant. America and Russia can’t fight each other anyway, not in an all-out conventional war. Sooner or later one side would start losing and then it would go nuclear. Tactical first, as Trukhan confirms, and then strategic.
It must have been a really intense meeting because Trump ended up sleeping through most of the funeral.
Ukrainian women’s dating requirements in 2025:
“I won’t date anyone who could be taken by military recruitment, but can’t pay his way out.”
https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1916007530347606525
Because ya gotta have standards.
“Zelensky said” Yawn.
TTG,
What “of value” is Trump getting from Zelensky.?
Fred,
Don’t know. Neither Zelenskiy nor Trump have offered specifics.
TTG,
Let me rephrase that. When has the guy who keeps extending martial law so he can stay in office kept any agreement?
Fred,
If Russia didn’t invade Ukraine, Ukraine wouldn’t have declared martial law. What agreement did you have in mind? Zelenskiy has only been in office since 2019. The only international agreement Zelenskiy signed was the 10-year bilateral security pact signed last year with Biden.
TTG,
If NATO had not expanded east…
TTG. Thank you for honoring Ukraine’s population was over 50M under the Soviets. I provided the link so it was difficult to dispute.
With that established what is the goal? A much smaller population, If that is the goal then yes, they are winning in rare form. As for the refugees, there is no indication they will return. The reports I read is they are not returning:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/47831
If you want to provide a link they are totally motivated to get back then please do. Otherwise it’s nonsense and wishful thinking. I don’t care about either country but I do hate the suffering on both sides. It needs to stop. I know about suffering in war on a personal level as in myself being wounded.
babelthuap,
Russia’s population was also higher under Soviet rule and has been falling since the war started as well. A smaller population is the future for large swaths of the world, even China.
That Kyiv Post report says the following:
That’s with a “total number of 5.2 million refugees remaining outside Ukraine as of November 2024.” So it looks like around half will be returning even under a pessimistic scenario.
babelthuap – Sleboda reckons in the order of 20 to 25 million. That’ll do as a rough figure, not forgetting that the old Ukraine covered more territory.
Other guesses range from 17 to 30.
Western accounts of population loss in Ukraine since 1991, and the reasons for that loss, are easy enough to get at but are of dubious accuracy and heavily politicised. So the figures are best regarded as indicative only and sometimes not even that.
Much of the population loss occurred before 2022. I’d guess most of it was due to economic factors. It was, for example, reported years ago that the Ukrainians were replacing the Poles as cheap labour for the German asparagus harvest. Ukrainian women now figure largely in the Western European sex trade. That also indicates pretty desperate economic conditions. The rich were also leaving in quantity. Sensible. Once you’d made your pile in the post Soviet free-for-all it was sometimes wiser to get out before more influential Oligarchs took it off you.
So that pre-2022 population loss was partly people getting out of an at times violently corrupt country: according to the Israeli press Kolomoiski’s M&A was sometimes done with rocket launchers. Partly loss of employment due to the later Association Agreement – I don’t think any of the post-Soviet countries escaped severe population loss after exposure to the German and northern European economies. Partly people escaping the fighting after 2014: if I were living within reach of the Aidar I’d get the family out fast:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFynJY_SeKc&t=10s&ab_channel=vanessabeeley
The young escaping conscription now also contribute to the loss. The luckier ones were sent out by their families early. Not so easy now. Harrowing accounts of men killed or sometimes drowned evading the border guards. The site aggregator “Dima” reported that he’d been urging a friend living in Kiev to get out. The friend said he couldn’t because it would cost him $10,000. Rumours later that the tariff on the border for those escaping had dropped to around $2,000 after the wealthier had got out. That’s still a lot of money in Ukraine so a dash across the border remained the only way for many.
Some will return after the war and some are doing so even now. The welcome for Ukrainian refugees in the Netherlands is not as warm as it was. I hear of refugees in Germany unable to make ends meet – those I know of personally can’t stay indefinitely with their host families and the language barrier and lack of training mean it’s difficult to get paying jobs and therefore separate accommodation. But most will stay if they can.
There still seems to be a good deal of internal population movement but often unreported. A while back there were videos of massive traffic jams on the road out of Kharkov. Some of those people had moved in from the west of the country after 2014. Now going the other way. Many to Dnepropetrovsk and the rents there rising accordingly. And a mysterious video of movement into Russian controlled territory just before the Kherson retreat.
That video showed lines of cars leaving Ukrainian controlled territory skidding along what was no more than a mud track, usually with families aboard and loaded with luggage. Mysterious because personnel who were presumably Ukrainian personnel were urging the cars on. One man interviewed, military age and family aboard, said he was only taking some bits and pieces in to relatives in Kherson. But he was clearly getting out and intended to stay out.
Kherson had been evacuated before Surovikin moved the line back to the Dnieper. Presumably news of the evacuation had spread and some on the Ukrainian side of the line decided to take the opportunity of getting out too. But what Ukrainian personnel were doing ushering them along that muddy escape route was not explained. I saw no other reports of the flight and it remains one of the many unexplained incidents of the war.
Interviews with refugees aren’t very informative. Often they don’t want to be interviewed or say very little. They have relatives remaining on the other side of the line and don’t want to get them into trouble. But it’s likely that under pressure of war, and as the front line moves forward, the population is tending to become less mixed. Those who support Kiev moving one way. Those who feel themselves to be more pro-Russian staying put or moving the other way.
An interview with a resident of Bakhmut showed the process. The resident, a father, had decided to stay and wait for the Russians. His sons remained with him. His daughter left with her boyfriend into Ukrainian controlled territory. A France 24 video of that time shows a Ukrainian soldier commenting that they didn’t have much to do with the locals because the locals were not on their side. Maybe those locals who were had already moved. As the line moves further west there will presumably be more population movement of that sort.
An interview with a Russian translator who came late to the Donbass might indicate that this population movement is extensive. The Donbass had had a mixed population before the war. But by the time the Russian translator got there there were “z’s” all over the place and any Kiev loyalists had either moved away or were keeping their heads well down. Set to 19 mins.
https://youtu.be/G4QVsQ72kOg?t=1135
We’ll have to wait until after the war to discover what has really been happening in Ukraine. The above observations are no more than straws in the wind and it would be foolish to assert more than that. But I suspect that when the dust has settled we’ll find not only a population halved in size. The population mix will be different from the mix before 2014. To what extent we don’t know but at least to some extent there’ll have been a shift. The more prominent ultras to Europe. The pro-Kiev to whatever remnant Ukraine turns out to be. The pro-Russians staying where they are or moving eastward.
TTG – Yes, it was far worse for Ukraine. But there isn’t a “Ukraine” any more. Not as you and I believe it should have been, the Donbass and all. The population is now halved and the country a police state ruled by terror as far as an increasing number of Ukrainians goes. We took a country that, never mind Putin’s history lessons, had the makings of the most prosperous of the independent post-Soviet countries and did that to it. The use of a fine people, to their very destruction, merely as a means of getting at the RF.
But as far as the West goes I don’t see this as it’s usually seen your side of the Atlantic – the hapless Europeans being dragged down into a hopeless war by the Washington neocons. It’s if anything the other way round.
As in Syria, as in Libya, the tail was most energetically wagging the dog in Ukraine. Ukraine was just another win some lose some project to the neocons. To Europe, or at least to the northern European countries including mine, it was in truth Barbarossa 2.
If that was obvious only to a few earlier, it’s obvious to all now. Look how the Europeans are still desperately clinging to this failed project. And Trump bumbling around interested only in writing it off without losing face. Old Europe is a snake pit of ancestral resentments and author of its own decay. The Americans would do better to keep clear, as we should have done. Maybe Trump’ll manage that at least.
I can understand that if you live in the UK, things are looking bleak, but that is self inflicted. When I talk to my relatives in Sweden, they are doing just fine. Several own their own businesses and are thriving. No doubt there are problems, especially with immigration and crime, but it is not impacting most of them and there are efforts under way to deal with it. Norway, Finland and Denmark are doing OK too. Even if the latter is targeted by the Fat Boy. The best the UK could do it admit that they made a mistake and rejoin the team and prosper. The US leaving the area is opening up for all kinds of activity that will pay off in the future. Unfortunately, not the same can be said for the US.
Lars – quite. The two countries, mine and your country of origin, are not really comparable. We’re over-populated and bust. But we do actually have 33 deployable tanks and men ready to maintain and crew them, which is more than anyone else in Europe has. So there’s that.
Er, we have “rejoined the team”, if the team is the EU. Johnson sorted that out quite satisfactorily and Starmer’s carrying on the good work. In fact, don’t want to boast but we lead the Continentals in the EU’s fight to the death with Putin. Have been doing so for a while:-
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-munich-security-conference
“Delivering the leadership that the world turns to Great Britain to actually provide.” That’s our natural place in the world. Always has been.
It’s a full time mission I can assure you! We have to keep the Continentals in order, put the Russians back in their box and sort out China. Might even have a go at sorting out Trump, though last time we tried that Russiagate backfired on us.
And what reward to we get for undertaking this heroic enterprise? The Russians don’t care. The Chinese ignore us. The Americans laugh at us. The Germans are happily tucking us into their Fourth Reich – Sieg Heil! – and the French nip round the back when no one’s looking and steal our blasted fish!
Mustn’t grumble. Nobody ever said leading the Free World to Victory was going to be easy.
EO,
A lot of NATO countries have many more tanks than Great Britain. Poland has well over 200 Leopard 2s and are buying/building 1,000 Korean K2s and 250 Abrams. France has over 200 Leclercs in service. Germany still has over 300 Leopard 2s. Finland has over 200 and Sweden over 100. Spain and Italy also have over 200 tanks in service each. Most European countries are in the process of upgrading in both numbers and types of tanks. Great Britain will be left in the dust in this regard.
Yes but TTG, our tanks work and are ready for deployment! Nor do they have rubber wheels.
The Poles don’t count. They’ve already lost too many of their sheepdipped fighting the Russians and they’re not joining Starmer’s Coalition of the Willing. All they’re good for is jumping up and down and making martial noises. Give them their due, they do that OK.
Though Merz is coming along nicely in the jumping up and down and making martial noises stakes. Just like the old days. The Ersatz Napoleon too, on the rare occasions he surfaces from his fishaholic haze. The White Tiger may be toothless but it’s still got the roar.
No, the Americans are the only ones who could keep this show on the road. And that not for very long. That, essentially, is why Trump wants out. He wants out before he gets pushed out.
But you’re talking to a broken man, TTG. Yesterday I decided to push the frontiers of culinary science and curry a cabbage. We ate the results stoically. “Not quite up to my usual standard?” I said hopefully. “Oh, I wouldn’t say that”, said SWMBO.
Suddenly I knew what it felt like to be our ambulatory cadaver in Downing Street. The bitterness of being a total loser.
If only he too could be confined to household disasters. Who was it had the bright idea of letting Starmer loose on the geopolitical scene? Though out-Johnsoning Johnson is an achievement, in a way, I suppose.
EO –
Those Brit tanks you gave to Ukraine are having problems. Ukrainian crew say the 1200 hp engine is under-powered and they often get bogged down in soft soil and need towing. The L30 tank gun barrels wear out after 500 rounds, the cannons on their other tanks last three times as long. Four have been destroyed so far, three more damaged, leaving only seven out of the 14 to be ready for combat.
On the bright side one Ukrainian Challenger 2 crew member stated that the tank was a “sniper rifle among tanks” due to its accuracy.
On the up side, Trump has volunteered to be Pope, publicly. So no need for a conclave. Maybe Vatican City will be the 51st state?
https://bsky.app/profile/veertjephilips.bsky.social/post/3loba6ehlds2d
Even better, Trump got the left to become pro-Catholic with a meme-tweet.
Here is a fairly detailed look at how the minerals deal came to be:
https://www.ft.com/content/7dfe3c6d-2ac6-4fcd-a129-8cedd8815f8f
My personal opinion?
The deal is an abomination.
It will just entangle the U.S. unnecessarily in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
As Jim Baker said about a conflict in the Balkans,
“We [the U.S.] don’t have a dog in that fight.”
“Secretary of State James Baker famously said of the Balkan conflict, “We don’t have a dog in that fight.”
”
https://www.newsweek.com/dog-fight-18351
“America’s Secretary of State, James Baker, was happy to oblige.
“We do not have a dog in this fight.” ”
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/07/srebrenica-20-years-later-119845/