Trump tells Putin: end war in Ukraine or face huge sanctions

President Putin and President Trump during the latter’s first term in office. Trump said he had “always had a very good relationship” with his Russian counterpart

President Trump has threatened to impose additional sanctions and tariffs on Russia unless President Putin agrees to end the war in Ukraine.

Trump said last year that he would resolve the war within 24 hours of being sworn in as president but has since backtracked and said that he hopes to end the fighting within six months. This is the first time he has revealed how he plans to achieve that goal. “I’m not looking to hurt Russia,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social website. “I love the Russian people, and always had a very good relationship with President Putin.”

He continued: “If we don’t make a ‘deal,’ and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries. Let’s get this war, which never would have started if I were President, over with! We can do it the easy way, or the hard way — and the easy way is always better. It’s time to ‘MAKE A DEAL.’ NO MORE LIVES SHOULD BE LOST!!!”

The Kremlin has not commented. Russian exports to the United States have plummeted since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022 and were worth less than $3 billion last year, according to US data. However, one option Trump may be considering, analysts say, is secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil such as India and China. Both countries have increased their purchases of Russian energy since Putin ordered tanks into Ukraine. Washington stopped buying Russian oil in response to the invasion.

Trump could also impose additional sanctions on Russian oil companies. Sanctions placed this month by the outgoing Biden administration on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, which together produce about half of Russia’s oil, triggered a surge in the cost of tanker shipping for Moscow. India’s refiners stopped doing business with the Russian tankers and companies affected by US sanctions, a source in the Indian government told Reuters. Other measures could include restricting the passage of vessels insured by sanctioned companies through the Bosphorus or Denmark’s territorial waters in the Baltic Sea, wrote The Bell, an independent Russian website that has been designated a “foreign agent” by Moscow. Both are major export routes for Russian crude oil.

Russia is already the world’s most sanctioned country, yet its economy has proven far more resilient than many western analysts expected. Despite soaring inflation that reached almost 10 per cent last year, almost one third of Russians say the war has had no effect on their lives, according to a poll by the Russian Academy of Sciences. However, Dmitry Patrushev, a deputy prime minister, warned on Wednesday that Russia would have to introduce some export restrictions if food prices did not come down. Russia is a major exporter of pork and dry milk and is the world’s top wheat exporter. “The priority for the state is absolutely clear: ensuring that our citizens have their own food supply,” Patrushev said.

Putin has said there can be no peace in Ukraine unless Kyiv surrenders four regions, as well as Crimea, and drops its ambitions to join Nato. He has also demanded that the West end all sanctions against Moscow.

https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/trump-russia-sanctions-ukraine-war-f8bwf279w

Comment: Damn! I didn’t think he’d address the Russo-Ukraine War for a couple of weeks, at least. There’s been a lot of noise from Zelenskiy, the EU and the Trump camp about Europe turning exclusively to the US for its supply of gas and oil. That fits in with Trump’s plan of “drill, baby drill” and making the US the number one energy power in the world. I think he smells that he has Putin over a barrel. Being transactional, I doubt he has any real loyalty to his old buddy Putin.

In my opinion, this is Ukraine’s best hope. Continued, even expanded, NATO military support would allow Ukraine to hold what she has, but it will not allow Ukraine to expel Russia from her territory. A negotiated settlement, even based on Trump’s economic threats, will not guarantee that either, but it would stop the death and destruction on both sides. Besides, I think Putin needs the war to be over and the sanctions lifted before he dies. His legacy and Russia’s future depends on it.

TTG

This entry was posted in Policy, Politics, Russia, TTG, Ukraine Crisis. Bookmark the permalink.

90 Responses to Trump tells Putin: end war in Ukraine or face huge sanctions

  1. John says:

    Meanwhile, in the real world, Russia knows that any deal it makes with any POTUS means absolutely nothing.
    What the US still imports from Russia, it does so because it is in US interest. Trump wants tariffs on that ? Good luck.

    The only one sided way to prevent Ukrainian army collapse in the next year or so, is a direct military intervention. What happens then is anyone’s guess.

  2. Jovan P says:

    ,, I think Putin needs the war to be over and the sanctions lifted before he dies. His legacy and Russia’s future depends on it.”

    Au contraire. Legacy isn’t that important, but soldiers and civilian lives are. Russia’s future depends on not making a bad deal.

    • James says:

      Jovan P,

      I agree with TTG that Putin is very concerned with his legacy … but I believe he wants his legacy to be a Russia independent from the west and invulnerable to sanctions from the west. There is no other way for Russia to be a Great Power.

  3. voislav says:

    Trumps leverage is overrated. Most of Russian income comes from oil (~90%) and almost all of it is going to China, India, Turkey and Brazil. Additional sanctions are not going to have much effect on these countries, they are big enough that financially sanctioning individual companies doesn’t work.

    https://energyandcleanair.org/july-2024-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/

    Restricting the passage of vessels through international waterways would open a whole different can of worms, it would go against centuries of international maritime law and hurt Western countries much more than it hurts Russia. Couldn’t Iran then require “insurance” for passage through the Straight of Hormuz, claiming that Western insurance is invalid? China though the disputed portions of the South China Sea? Basically anyone controlling a critical waterway could require a toll in form of “insurance”.

    • TTG says:

      voislav,

      The latest sanctioning of ghost fleet vessels is actually causing China and others to refuse to allow them into port. I’m surprised those sanctions are having such an effect, but they are.

  4. Mark Logan says:

    TTG,

    Trump held and impromptu press meeting when he first sat down at his desk after being re-inaugurated. The press was invited to watch him sign stuff but he allowed questions. The two comments about Ukraine occur at about 26 minutes and 28 minutes, the first about Putin, the second about Zelenskyy. I don’t view these comments as official policy statements but as possible true insight to his thoughts, as he seems completely relaxed and non-performative during this session.

    Pretty close to what you suspect, anyway.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=si19rPJi5NQ

  5. Mark Logan says:

    TTG,

    Correction: The second comment is at 29 minutes, not 28.

  6. Fred says:

    “However, one option Trump may be considering, analysts say,”
    Which analysts?
    What country?
    Did you all enjoy the “options may be” from the Marc Bennetts? Anyone tired of unknown (or nonexistent) people being quoted with ‘one option may be’ posts from UK papers? Not just UK papers but NewsCorp? Now run by Lachlan Murdoch, son of well known peacemonger Rupert.

    “continued, even expanded, NATO military support would allow Ukraine to…”

    Yeah it sure would. And the chances of that are less than a snowball’s in hell that the American voters would put up with funding another unaccountable $trillion or so for Zelensky and company. Did you miss the last election? Did you miss Vivek imploding himself with his super H1B support, or Elon’s “nazi salute”, or Ellison’s touting AI will allow mRNA customized cancer cures for everyone?

    Trump’s got enough enemies close to him; he doesn’t need to screw over the people who just put him back in office just so the UK can get bailed out by Ukraine paying off all their debt with the dollars Donald would have to send to Zelensky to keep that corrupt government in power. Or keep whatever real estate they currently have in their own corrupt hands. Nice breathless puffer though.

    For the curious I suggest looking at the ongoing destruction of Germany’s industrial base, their various state elections, and the desperation the central government has to keep AfD from gaining more political power through elections. Then look at the $/Euro exchange rate, as well as the $/pound. Starmer’s going to do what with his 100 year agreement with Zelensky? With what money? Anyone notice what is happening there?

      • TTG says:

        David Kissinger,

        I don’t believe this election was rigged/stolen anymore than the 2020 election. The multiple and thorough recounts by Georgia in 2020 convinced me of that.

        • David Kissinger says:

          TTG,
          I agree with you, I was being facetious. One good conspiracy theory deserves another.

          I am always amazed at the inability of Trump cultists to admit that their cult leader was defeated by Biden.

          The convicted felon beat Harris, albeit by the narrowest popular vote margin since Richard Nixon. For the third presidential election in a row, more people voted against him than for him.

        • Eric Newhill says:

          TTG,
          You’re being obtuse.

          Re-counting ballots means nothing if some of the ballots are arising from fake registrations. The registrations are the key. Create a couple hundred thousand fake registrations and you can then create a couple hundred thousand fake mail-in/absentee ballots that are tied to a registration.

          If there are 5 million ballots cast with a couple hundred thousand or so being from fake registrations, you can re-count ballots until you’re blue in the face and you’ll still get 5 million ballots, proving nothing.

          I reiterate that election rigging is going to be publicly exposed and corrected by the Trump admin. The Trump team already has the evidence internally.

          • TTG says:

            Eric Newhill,

            As part of the 2020 audit, Georgia law enforcement and election investigators didn’t find a single fraudulent absentee ballot out of more than 15,000 voter signatures, according to a report by the Georgia secretary of state’s office. I don’t know if they rechecked every registration. But Georgia was famous for cleaning out their voter registration rolls even dumping a lot of legitimate voters. Back in 2018, they scrubbed 87,000 actual people from the rolls. Over 6,000 were scrubbed illegally. Although I still want to know what’s going on with the voter rolls in New York, I bet voter suppression is a bigger problem than fake registrations.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            TTG,
            GA did not canvas the registrations to determine if any were fake/fraudulent. Obviously, that would be a huge job; maybe impossible – though representative samples have been canvassed to prove what follows. GA, to its credit, did take some other measures, in 2024, that would mitigate the impact of fake registrations. Trump carried the state in 2024.

            I’m glad you are able to admit that NY apparently has some serious issues in the registration data. I can tell you with 100% confidence that several other states look just like NY. Trump is aware of that. That is why he has begun to once again confidently assert that 2020 was a rigged election.

            My understanding is that there are going to be major reforms to voter registration and the voting processes.

            A problem that has no easy answers is how to handle a public presentation of the evidence, which is very convincing. Do we consider anyone elected (US Congress, state govt, etc.) to be invalid? I don’t think that is wise. We definitely need to fix the system going forward, but what about the risk of politically motivated entities trying to wipe out swaths of currently elected reps based on the theory that they could have been the beneficiaries of fraud?

            The method of fraud is actually, conceptually, simple. Create categories of fake registrations using certain logic/algorithms. The fake registrations are sufficiently numerous to alter election results and well concealed within the voter registration databases. Then create and cast ballots for those fake registrations. That the same methodology is found in many states across the country, with minor nuances to accommodate different state processes, strongly suggests that the consulting companies (there’s only a handful and some are actually the same people as the “competition”) hired by states to create and maintain the databases post HAVA are responsible and that they were directed by the federal level. I am fairly certain that most of the states do not have a solid grasp on the cheating occurring right under their noses. Some are probably honestly totally unaware of it, but will desire to take action when the facts are shown to them.

          • TTG says:

            Eric Newhill,

            Do any of those fake registrations created using certain logic/algorithms on the NYS rolls have corresponding signatures? Seems this is where a fake ballot scheme would fall apart in practice. Of course, that still leaves the question of what all those wierd-assed fake registrations are doing on the NYS rolls.

          • TonyL says:

            TTG,

            “Of course, that still leaves the question of what all those wierd-assed fake registrations are doing on the NYS rolls”

            We have not yet seen any proof of this “fake registration”.

            As I mentioned before, without the database schema and the description of the operating procedure (e.g any daily job running after hours), no analysis is worthy of consideration.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            TTG,
            Signatures are easily generated by various readily available software programs. Signatures are a non-issue.

            What were 87,000 bad registrations doing on the rolls? What voter suppression? That is a left wing fantasy; one no doubt also indulged in by our resident Pangolin munching, ungrateful immigrant who wants to pretend to knowledge s/he/it doesn’t have.

            DB schemas and operating mumbo jumbo have nothing to do with the publicly available voter registration rolls, which are readily available for download – and which are the source in which cloned records, algorithms, etc. have been discovered. By law, those rolls are supposed to be clean.

            If a foreign subversive wants to pretend to be able to shrug off findings s/he/it have never bothered to look into, based on irrelevant DB 101 lingo, then said subversive should be aware that s/he/it is exhibiting obvious superficial – and risible – arrogance. Typical. People like myself – as well as the official researchers – are intimately familiar with big data, database architecture, etc.

      • Fred says:

        David,

        Not even a cheap non sequitur? All that wining must be affecting you. Which analyst was The Times author getting ‘analysis’ from to make all those conjectures?

        TTG,

        Any response what I pointed to regarding the article you quoted at length?

        • TTG says:

          Fred,

          Do you mean your claim that Trump will abandon Ukraine as soon as possible rather than do what he said in his Truth Social post? He doubled down today in his address to the Davos crowd. He specifically blamed Russia for continuing the war and is pushing for lower oil prices worldwide to deprive Russia of oil revenue. His freezing of all foreign aid yesterday also does not apply to military aid to Ukraine. I think he’s going to disappoint you concerning Ukraine. Maybe someone explained to him how much of our Ukrainian aid is being funnels into our arms industry and he grasped that concept fully.

          • drifter says:

            TTG’s monthly check comes from Uncle Sam.

          • TTG says:

            drifter,

            I actually get three monthly checks from Uncle Sam.

          • Fred says:

            TTG,

            “abandon”
            when did Ukraine ever belong to the USA? My expectations are pretty slim. The only way he could disappoint me over Ukraine is getting us into a war with Russia as a result of the decades long effort of the Borg to do just that.

          • TTG says:

            Fred,

            One doesn’t have to own something in order to abandon it.

            If all you want is no war between the US and Russia, I doubt you’ll be disappointed. Neither Trump nor Putin wants that. Although I bet Trump is capable of causing some exciting moments like he did with North Korea and China the last time he was President. Neither of those instances ended up in a war. Not sure about his willingness to stay out of a war with Iran though. That in itself would surely cause one of those exciting moments with Russia.

  7. David Kissinger says:

    After years of being Putler’s lapdog, I find it hard to believe that the convicted felon would now turn on remnant Russia and support liberty over terrorism and genocide. For the sake of liberty, I sure hope I’m wrong.

    • English Outsider says:

      Looks as if Trump’s got it taped, though he has a difficult job ahead of him tidying up Biden’s mess in Ukraine..

      Trump knows he can’t put American regular forces in on the ground. Even Biden knew that much. The Pentagon will have told Trump, as they told Biden, that there aren’t any American regular forces around to put in, not in any number and not appropriately equipped.

      He knows that if in spite of that he went big, scraped up some credible forces somehow and deployed US airpower, which I believe to be formidable in spite of everyone talking it down then 1, win or lose he’d take heavy losses, 2, he’d have to base his air in Europe and the Europeans would squeal like stuck pigs and surrender forthwith if Russian missiles started coming their way and 3, he’ll have read Colonel Lang.

      Colonel Lang’s dictum was that Russian and American regular forces would never scrap directly. One side or the other would start to lose and the losing side would go nuclear. For those three reasons Trump will not give way to the pleas of the Europeans and square up to the Russians directly.

      The Euros are currently talking big about putting troops in themselves. In the hope that when they got hammered, that’d force the Americans to come in and save their bacon. But for the three reasons given above Trump will not come in and save their bacon. I suspect he wouldn’t want to in any case: after the last eight or nine years the Euros can scarcely claim to be his best friends.

      This was a lost war from February 21st 2022. All knew that who weren’t taken in by the nonsense the politicians and press put out at that time. I’m dead sure the Pentagon knew it. Biden kept it going partly because his team was vindictive and dumb, partly because he reckoned, as the Kellog report stated, that if he couldn’t beat the Russians at least he’d give them a bloody nose. Wear them down and make Russia a weaker and more vulnerable country.

      Didn’t work. Now Trump’s got his hands on the wheel he intends to walk away from the debacle just as soon as he can.

      There’s not an awful lot Putin can do to help him on that. Putin himself has repeated “demilitarise and denazify” so often and so loudly that he’d probably get lynched if he now resiled from that aim.

      So our proxy is going to continue losing men at the rate of some two thousand a day. Until Putin and Trump between them can work the PR so that Ukraine is neutralised and can no longer be used in the attempt to “overextend and unbalance Russia”, and the American public doesn’t have to feel that the US has lost face. In this area, as in so many others, tidying up Biden’s mess is not going to be easy.

      • TTG says:

        EO,

        NATO and especially US Air Forces are indeed formidable and, if deployed in and near Ukraine, would provide an effective umbrella for all of Ukraine. The US already has robust corps and theater support assets in Europe, but could probably only afford to bring no more than half a dozen or so combat brigades in. But, you’re right about the US having little appetite for that kind of deployment unless, perhaps, in a peace keeping role. However, the eastern countries of NATO would welcome that kind of commitment from the US and would happily base such forces on their territory.

        One thing we can be certain of concerning Trump’s plan is that it will be noting like the Biden administrations timid strategy of escalation management.

        Plus, your estimate of Ukrainian casualties is way off the mark. Even Russian casualties only average a thousand killed and wounded a day. Ukrainian casualties, though surely substantial, are far less.

      • Fred says:

        EO,

        ” Biden’s mess in Ukraine….”
        The UK has been playing the Great Game for a couple hundred years. To bad for all the dead Russians and Ukrainians but the USA didn’t start this mess and you can keep the guilt trip.

        Feel free to convince your government of keeping Zelensky in power. Open up your wallet and send your own money. Sign up with the RAF/RN or any of the rest. Get your EU allies to do the same. The Mexican and other drug havens have been killing thousands of Americans every year. Our borders come first. Trump isn’t about the send anything over to bail out any of you people. Other than mean tweets.

        TTG,

        “a peace keeping role”

        The main military and financial power is going to be “peace keeping” on Russia’s borders? WTF have you been smoking? There’s ZERO chance of that happening. Kamala lost the election, don’t you remember? The Europeans will be lucky if we are still in NATO in four years.

        • LeaNder says:

          Fred, it feels you misunderstand TTG’s elegant correction of EO’s latest squeal. Slightly untwisting/unframing it. I am impressed by his patience.

          Except for Macron no one ever talked about European troops in Ukraine. Just as his scenario of US troops other than those already stationed in Europe lured by evil continentals into a clash with Russia has been a very, very Albion flight of imagination from the start. Dictated mainly by spite.

          But yes, there has been talk about peace keeping forces once a Russian deal is made lately … personally I think those blue helmets don’t make much of a difference? Lebanon?

          • English Outsider says:

            Don’t get upset, LeaNder. It’s true I have no liking for your politicians but you should hear what most of us in England say about our own!

            I actually believe that Germany’s in nothing like as bad a state, politically and economically, as my own country. But Germany I regard as my second Heimat and I maybe do therefore have a bit of a feel for what’s gone wrong there. Correction welcomed if I don’t.

            The Germans have a difficult time ahead of them.
            Forget about Scholz and Merz. They’re past praying for. I don’t even see Weidel or Wagenknecht getting to the root of what went wrong.

            For half a century and more Germany was the country of Nie Wieder. That was Angie’s big selling point as well and it sold well internationally. She took me in too, until I started looking around.

            The Germans now have to get to grips with the fact that for well over a decade their government has been using thugs in Kiev in pursuance of its foreign policy objectives. Thugs who bear a marked resemblance to and follow the same ideology as the thugs who got their hands on the levers of power in Germany in the ’30’s.

            Some in Germany might have picked that up from the Melnyk interview, if they didn’t know it before. Merkel knew it – was responsible for it – well before 2014.

            Said before, every one talks of what Victoria Nuland got up to in Kiev. No one takes time off to look at what Lady Ashton and Angela Merkel, the self-declared bride left at the altar, got up to around that crucial time as well.

            I’ve seen Lafontaine and Krone-Schmalz, and one or two very minor public figures, touching on the subject but it’s not part of mainstream German political debate. Until it is Germany’s government is going to carry on being the international Whited Sepulchre. Talking holier than thou but behind that increasingly transparent screen getting up to worse mischief than ever Biden did.

            About time the German government got to grips with the North Stream sabotage as well, instead of desperately sweeping it under the carpet. Trying to look away from that episode exposes Germany to international ridicule and justly so. Me, I reckon Bellatrix LeBaerbock did it solo but others say she only helped.

            The Germans also have to get to grips with the gut Russophobia that’s swept the country. As bad as in Croatia or parts of Poland. That really surprised me, who had always regarded Germany as a soft-leftish Kumbaya sort of country. Bet it surprised the Russians too, whose help you’re going to need if you’re to pull Germany out of the economic problems Barbarossa Scholz and his merry men have plunged you all into.

            And Germans politicians must stop attributing their problems to Uncle Sam. Berlin and Brussels – but I repeat myself – were fully as responsible for the Ukrainian mess as Biden and his neocons. Until the politicians get to grips with that they’re going to be fumbling around lost in their usual state of aggrieved victimhood and they’ll never get their country right again.

            And what that holier than thou government has been doing increasing weapons supplies for the genocide in Gaza takes one’s breath away. That isn’t what I thought I’d ever see my beloved Germany lending its weight to.

            If you have a similar affection for your country, do add what influence you might possess to getting it back on course. The material’s there, you know, full measure. You just have to use it right.

          • LeaNder says:

            Don’t distract Sweetie, it wasn’t about your hobby horse.

            The Euros are currently talking big about putting troops in themselves. In the hope that when they got hammered, that’d force the Americans to come in and save their bacon.

            considering your reference above, ‘we’are (I am) still waiting for details, who, when, what Europeans talk about sending their troops?

  8. Keith Harbaugh says:

    Larry Johnson discusses in considerable detail the involvement of the CIA in Ukraine.
    His technique is to quote at length from two American media reports on that involvement,
    then critique those reports.

    https://sonar21.com/cia-busy-polishing-its-ukraine-legacy/

    These are the two articles I [LJ] want to draw to your attention:

    “How ‘Mild Bill’ Burns led a covert CIA campaign in Ukraine”

    “How the CIA and Ukrainian intelligence secretly forged a deep partnership”

    Let’s start with Bill Burns.
    Here are five salient quotes from this Ignatius puff piece …

    Burns, according to Ignatius, couches the CIA role as intelligence sharing.
    It was nothing of the sort.
    I believe the CIA was heavily involved in helping the Ukrainians
    craft and execute information operations (aka propaganda),
    the training of terrorist hit teams and
    the training and equipping of Ukrainian special operations forces for operations inside Russia.
    This included gathering intelligence on sites that were subsequently targeted with missiles and drones.

    The ABC article reveals a different kind of deception and disinformation.
    It pretends that CIA’s involvement in Ukraine only started after the Maidan coup in February 2014

    Almost missing from the ABC account are the actions of the CIA and the UK’s MI-6
    in fomenting, funding and arming the Ukrainians (and Georgians) who instigated the violence that led to the departure of Ukraine’s elected government.
    No mention whatsoever of CIA’s long history —
    it started with Operation Red Sox in the late-1940s —
    of using Ukraine as a base to attack Russia.
    However, ABC reports that the CIA and MI-6 were involved in the actions that led to the Maidan coup

    When Russia invaded in 2022, the Biden administration lifted many of the restrictions on the CIA’s operations in Ukraine, according to current and former U.S. officials.
    The article confirms what I and others, including Ray McGovern, Scott Ritter, Doug MacGregor and Danny Davis, have long argued:
    The CIA played a major role in Ukraine’s attacks on Russia.

    To some extent, none of this is news.
    But I think LJ and the articles he quotes go into greater detail.

    At least one of LJ’s claims seems (to me) to be unsubstantiated and controversial even today:

    This is intelligence malpractice.
    It is a tacit admission that the CIA is simply parroting casualty figures it receives from Ukraine.
    The blame for this incompetence rests with Burns.
    Instead of being spoon-fed by the Ukrainians,
    he could have demanded that analysts use a combination of Open Source Intel and imagery of new graves in Russia to produce a more accurate number.
    The lie about Russian casualties has been used to deceive Congress and the American public about the true nature of the war.

    • TTG says:

      Keith Harbaugh,

      I’m sure LJ is aware that shortly after the collapse of the USSR, the CIA had teams in the capitols of all the newly freed nations. In some cases, they jumped in at night. Liaison with the new intelligence services was established quickly. During those early years liaison was also active between the CIA and Russian intelligence. During those early years there was even a couple of exchange visits between 10th SFG(A) and the 45th Spetsnaz Regiment. Here’s a good account of that early intelligence relationship.

      https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/us-and-russian-intelligence-cooperation-during-yeltsin-years

    • Keith Harbaugh says:

      LJ provides considerable substantiation on the subject of (Russian) casualties
      (a subject that was also controversial in the Vietnam War era, when it was known as the “body count”, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_War_body_count_controversy ) :

      Russian Casualties and the Russian Economy
      A Memo for President Donald Trump”

      https://sonar21.com/russian-casualties-and-the-russian-economy-a-memo-for-president-donald-trump/

      Mr. President, I believe that
      the CIA is providing you inaccurate, false intelligence
      about Russia’s casualties
      and the condition of its economy.
      If you hope to realize your goal of opening negotiations with President Vladimir Putin to bring an end to the war in Ukraine,
      you must be equipped with the best information available.

      You have been briefed that Russia has suffered devastating losses — as many as 800,000 casualties — and that Russia’s economy is weak and fragile.
      Data from open sources paint a diametrically opposite picture.

      According to Mediazona’s latest data,
      there are 88,726 confirmed Russian combat deaths since February 2022.
      Mediazona estimates, using probate registry data,
      that the number may be as high as 120,000.
      This is a far cry from the numbers claimed by Ukrainian intelligence,
      which forms the basis of CIA estimates.

      It is essential that you understand that Russia views this war as vital to its continued existence.
      Russia is not fighting to reconstitute the Soviet Empire.
      It sees Ukraine as a Western-proxy being used to attack Russia with US-and NATO-supplied weapons and intelligence,
      with the ultimate goal of destroying the current government.
      Accordingly, the only satisfactory outcome for Russia is to end this threat.
      President Putin is willing to accept a negotiated settlement provided that
      Ukraine is stripped of its capacity to launch future attacks on Russia
      and that NATO ends any consideration of making Ukraine a member of NATO.

      [LJ goes on to provide considerable information on the Russian economy.]

      (In the article LJ provides considerable justification for Mediazona’s credibility on the subject of casualties.)

  9. English Outsider says:

    TTG – In the conflict between those who supported Western policy in Ukraine and those who did not yours is the only point of view amongst those in the first category I have respect for.

    Both you and Colonel Lang regarded the affair as a matter of honour. The Colonel said as much.

    He was writing of the recent NATO accession states rather than of Ukraine. He had not approved of NATO expansion. Had considered it wrong and ill-advised and that the US should not have given the US security guarantees to those countries that NATO membership ensures.

    Nevertheless he considered that having given the guarantee, having made the promise, the US should now stand by its word. So too in this case. Though Ukraine isn’t in NATO, he felt that having promised them US support the US should honour that promise.

    In this he was influenced not only by the abstract logic of that argument. In his long and varied career he had seen cases where the US had walked out on its allies or proxies, left them in the lurch. There are some moving passages in “Tattoo” where he details that. This time, I can see him thinking, we’re not going to do that.

    I do not believe that such considerations of honour had any weight whatsoever with the Biden administration nor with the European politicians who followed tamely in its wake. I believe the Ukrainians, of whatever political or ideological stripe, now know that; and have been, for a year or more now and probably before Vilnius, fully aware that they are facing the same betrayal that Colonel Lang and you were so resolutely hoping would not occur.

    • TTG says:

      EO,

      I was never as down on NATO as Colonel Lang was, but I understood his point. I watched the newly freed nations of Eastern Europe and the former USSR states form and choose NATO. They never lost faith in the purpose of NATO. I did see NATO outliving its mission. For years after the fall of the USSR, it was an alliance in search of a mission. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine breathed new life into NATO and justified the choices made by the newer nations of NATO. With its recent enlargement, I would like to see European countries assume a greater leadership role. As Rumsfeld termed it, the countries of “New Europe” will assume greater importance than the countries of “Old Europe”. I am confident New Europe will not betray Ukraine.

  10. Yeah, Right says:

    Trump: “If we don’t make a ‘deal,’ and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries.”

    and. various. other. participating. countries.

    That’s the most intriguing five words in that entire article.
    What does he mean when he puts those words in there?

    Does he mean:
    a) Those other countries will “participate” in imposing their own matching tariffs and sanctions on their own Russian imports?
    b) The USA will impose secondary sanctions and tariffs *on* those countries *because* they are “participating” in trade with Russia?

    If the former then Trump is hinting that he expects to stitch up deals with those countries to give those tariffs and sanctions some real teeth.

    If the latter then Trump is hinting that he will pick a fight with those countries as well as with Russia.

    If it is the former then Trump will win. If the latter then he will lose disastrously.

    Think about it: despite all the pretense and the fiddling-with-numbers the USA ceased to be the largest economy in the world over a decade ago. It is now the 2nd largest economy.

    China is number one. India is sitting at number three. In 2024 Russia surpassed Germany and Japan to sit at number four.

    So if Trump thinks he can launch a simultaneous trade Battle Royale against the 1st, 3rd and 4th largest economies in the world then he will see his own country’s standing slip down into the “also-ran” category pretty darn quickly.

  11. Lars says:

    What is driving the revitalization of NATO is Russia and the European members know that without it, some will become targets for Russian imperialism. There are several moves by the members to increase capabilities and especially now since they cannot trust Trump. Regarding Trump’s threats, most people are aware that he talks a lot and deliver much less. What has increased is the prospect of miscalculations, both in Moscow and Washington, DC. If Hegseth is confirmed, that prospect is increased even further. As per the old Chines curse: May you live in interesting times.

    • James says:

      Lars,

      Oh for goodness sakes. Russian imperialism? Russia has invaded one country in the last 20 years while we have invaded 20. The only imperialists are us.

      Russian imperialism is a phantom menace invented by the US to get NATO members to buy more Patriot batteries and Abrams tanks because the US does not export anything else anymore. Oh yeah – the US exports weapons plus LNG thanks to Putin conveniently blowing up his own pipeline.

      I can understand why TTG is so paranoid of the Russians given his Lithuanian heritage. I lived in Warsaw for a year and I am sure that the Lithuanians feel the same way about the Russians that the Poles do.

      Americans or Europeans calling the Russians imperialists is very much the pot calling the kettle black.

      • English Outsider says:

        James – both pot and kettle can be black as hell for all it matters here. Doesn’t alter the fact that we had no business installing a puppet regime in Ukraine in order to overextend and unbalance Russia. Nor that Biden’s conduct of the resultant war was disastrous for the Ukrainians and brought no advantage to the United States or to the West. Those two facts remain unaltered whatever one chooses to believe about the RF.

        Must also object to the fact that you’re reading our host wrong. But I doubt it bothers him much so shan’t go on about it.

        Worried about Trump. Obviously much of the nonsense he’s been talking since inauguration is solely for domestic consumption. The Russians understand that and let it ride. But if Trump doesn’t get down to business soon and start talking seriously about the new security architecture for Europe the Russians want, Odessa and Lord knows what else will be gone and Trump’ll be left with egg all over his face. His job is to get Biden’s mess tidied up, not to allow himself to be further entangled in it.

        Even more so with Gaza. I watched European diplomatic credibility plummet like a stone after we put our support behind the genocide in Gaza. Not that it had far to fall in that case. Same but worse has happened to the credibility of the US. If Trump doesn’t ensure that won’t happen again, and if he doesn’t put a stop to the atrocities in the West Bank, he’ll be following Biden in taking the US down to the status of international pariah.

        “Morning in America” is the feeling one’s picking up from many in the US, now that Trump’s got his hands on the wheel and is attempting to push through much needed domestic reform. One can only wish him and his country well in that enterprise. But it’ll go for naught if he continues with Biden’s failed foreign policy.

      • Lars says:

        So which countries does the US still invade? I know the Putin Pals continue to find excuses, but most people understand what is at stake here. Russia will eventually have to change course, since their economy dwarfs that of the US and the EU. They are barely keeping up and with NATO countries ramping up and Russia continuing to lag, their situation will continue to deteriorate. At this time, the biggest event in favor of Russia, even if temporary, is Trump and Hegseth, due to their incompetence.

      • David Kissinger says:

        “Russia has invaded one country in the last 20 years while we have invaded 20.”

        Which twenty countries has America invaded militarily in the last twenty years?

        The world’s “paranoia” of Putler is well grounded. Putler is a war criminal and guilty of genocide. His North Korean, terrorist
        allies are reported to be sending more troops and equipment to Russia after suffering a severe number of casualties in their war against Ukranian freedom fighters.

        Your support of terrorist Putler is shameful.

        • James says:

          Lars – Oh wait – you are saying that if Putin installs a puppet government in Ukraine and withdraws then he has done absolutely nothing wrong? OK – I will hold you to that.

          David Kissinger – I have actually been to Ukraine and talked to the people there. I have also been to Russia and talked to the people there. How about you? I’m not terribly fond of the Russians but I’m not terribly fond of the Ukrainians east of Lviv either. It was a Ukrainian university student on a escalator in Kiev who told me that the Ukrainians are all douchebags. When I asked the two girls with him if he was right they gave wry nods yes.

          • English Outsider says:

            James – a look at the social rather more than the political divisions within the country. (Peter Korotaev and Volodymyr Ishchenko):-

            “Anticorruption serves more often than not as a justification for neoliberal policies that favour the business interests of international capital. Ironically, the dismantling of state enterprises driven by such considerations severely weakened Ukraine’s massive Soviet-era military-industrial complex after 2014, which affected its war capabilities.

            “But instead of blaming themselves for the current state of affairs, the nationalists tend to blame the Ukrainian people. Dmytro Kukharchuk, a well-known nationalist officer, gave a long interview in July about Ukraine’s dim military prospects. According to him, “there are many more khokhols [the Russian “colonial” slur against Ukrainians] today” than there are “true” Ukrainians. He defines “khokhols” as those unwilling to fight for Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

            “Kukharchuk belongs to the leadership of the extreme-right National Corps party and commands a battalion in a brigade linked to the Azov movement. The sentiments he expresses might seem confined to the fringe, but his rhetoric is far from unique. It echoes a narrative that has dominated Ukrainian, and more broadly, post-Soviet, national-liberal civil society and intelligentsia since the 1990s. This narrative, repeated endlessly, derides the majority of the population – dismissively labelled as bydlo, or “cattle”.

            “This disparaging term targets those who, in the view of these elites, cling to “Soviet” habits, prioritise personal wellbeing, value state-provided welfare, and resist self-sacrifice for nation-building. Such discourse is not only ethnonationalist but profoundly classist, painting a large segment of the population – primarily workers, poor people, and pensioners – as obstacles to reactionary-defined social progress while valourising a narrow, self-defined vanguard of the nation.”

            From “Why is Ukraine struggling to mobilise its citizens to fight?”

            https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2025/1/23/why-is-ukraine-struggling-to-mobilise-its-citizens-to-fight

    • leith says:

      Lars –

      Hegseth confirmed, three GOP holdouts, but the 50/50 tie was broken by Eyeliner Boy 51/50.

      Putin imperialist? Yes, he believes himself to be the second coming of Peter the Great. In the last 20 years he has both directly and indirectly marched into:
      Chechnya
      Georgia
      Ukraine (twice)
      Central African Republic
      Mali
      Burkhina Faso
      Madagascar
      Libya
      Mozambique

      • Fred says:

        Leith,

        Mali? What is the Colonial Franc and whose troops had been there for decades. Until they got kicked out by not Putin? Operation Serval? Got written about by a French Contributor to SST years ago? Remember? What is ” Islamic State – Sahel Province” is that like HTS, terrorists until it is convenient not to label them that?

        Libya? Putin marched in? What was NATO doing? Oh yeah killing Gaddafi and creating what exists now in Libya? That was Barack Obama, Nobel Peace Prize winner and NATO! How about Benghazi? What was there, besides a CIA op to funnel weapons from the NATO “liberated” (isn’t that what NATO did?) Libya to Syria? Before HTS, the apparently no longer terrorist organization, was put in charge by Biden! Or Blinken, or Turkey+UK+????.

        Russia marched into Chechnya? Why would any Russian government ever feel the need to do that? Can you fill us in?

      • Wunduk says:

        you might add to that
        a return to old tricks in Afghanistan,
        the 2015 expedition into Syria
        and don’t forget Kazakhstan (January 2022)
        the venture which likely confirmed the bias that some display of Russian manpower can swing it in three days

        • leith says:

          Wunduk –

          I should have added Putin’s Afghan adventures. Especially his bounty on US scalps. Mea Culpa.

          I deliberately left out Syria and Sudan.

          Please tell us more about January 2022 in Kazakhstan.

          • Wunduk says:

            The January events in Kazakhstan were likely tied to an inter-elite struggle between Nazarbaev and his successor Tokaev, that had been going on since 2019; trigger was rising gas prices (LPG going up overnight from 6 to 24 cents per litre). The initial peaceful protests in West Kazakhstan spread to the (former) capital Almaty, where through the involvement of organised crime groups and jihadist cells it got violent quickly. The latter got some shout-outs from like-minded individuals in Idlib, praising the “Days of Honour.” Turned out to have been premature. A rapid and massive deployment of Russian paratroopers ended the excitement, with in the end a count of overall 250 dead, including a former deputy MoI through suicide. As a result, Nazarbaev left his last official positions. Xi and Putin both talked it up as an attempted “colour revolution” with “foreign support” as if the octogenarian former autocrat Nazarbaev would have wanted to reverse the handover to his handpicked successor Tokaev. But besides the confusion over what might have really been the cause of the trouble, as a result, by mid-Jan 2022 it confirmed the impression that a swift deployment of Russian military would cow into inaction and submission anyone and anything in the former imperial space with zero casualties.

          • leith says:

            Thanks!

      • Keith Harbaugh says:

        “Eyeliner Boy”
        What a brainless cheap shot.
        Can’t you talk about substance?

        Oh, and on Burkhina Faso, please see
        ‘Russia’s African lab’: How Putin won over Burkina Faso after French adieu | Features News | Al Jazeera https://search.app/fzyyWshFByyeNZYa6

        Just more of Putin Derangement Syndrome.

        • leith says:

          KH –

          Burkina Faso’s coup leaders turned to Russia because Moscow did not pressure them to restore elected governments. Unlike the pressure they got from Paris.

          So now they’ve got Russia’s Africa Corps, AKA Wagner mercenaries. Who of course have zero interest in Burkina Faso’s copper, iron, manganese, gold, tin and phosphate mines (snark)!

          Sorry I offended you about the JD sarcasm. Instead let’s talk about his relationship with million $ plus Trump donor and homosexual Peter Thiel. Or Vance’s cross-dressing at a Yale halloween party. He deserves a few insults. He won’t melt.

        • TonyL says:

          Keith Harbaugh,

          leith, the judo master, was just having some fun using the same trick that Trump does to everybody. “Eyeliner Boy”, I like that nickname for Vance.

          On the other serious news. Trump came out to blame FAA DEI program for the American Airline plane collision with the Black Hawk helicopter. And the investigation has not even started yet, all victims bodies have not even been found (so far only 27 out of 64). We do have a psychopath and extreme narcissist for President of USA.

          • TTG says:

            TonyL,

            Trump’s statement/news conference was a real embarrassment. He couldn’t wait to get past the prepared statement of condolences and launch into his whining about Obama, Biden and DEI. I kept thinking back to Reagan’s magnificent tribute to the Challenger in 1986, the “slipped the surly bonds of earth to touch the face of God” speech. He even spoke to the children of America with real compassion.

          • leith says:

            TonyL –

            Judo? Not me. The judo master is widely recognized to be Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. Some claim he’s reached the 8th Dan, no partisanship in his getting that award I’m sure.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eiTKI9jclmg

          • TonyL says:

            TTG,

            I remember the Challenger and Reagan’s tribute. By now I don’t remember any details, but the feeling of respect and being grateful stays with me.

  12. Stefan says:

    I dont think Trump actually cares which side “wins” in Ukraine. Trump has little to no really heart felt positions, besides belief in himself. He does what he does because of the guidance he is given by those around him, political expediency, and what he thinks will make himself look good. Because most of the political establishment in the West is pro Ukraine, this is what he will do. The push to lower oil prices will also allow him to claim lower gas prices at the pumps. If he can get Russia to the table, even if there is no agreement, and lower gas prices, he will view it as a victory for himself. That is all he cares about: himself.

    He has told the Canadians if they want to avoid tariffs that they should agree to be annexed by the US and become the 51st state. He talks about not starting wars and conflicts around the world and then does stuff like this. The man is a clown, a walking talking joke. I just wish that George Carlin was here to lampoon him like he did with Bush the Lesser.

    • English Outsider says:

      Stefan – we don’t know what information President Trump has been given about the war in Ukraine or what information he’s picked up for himself. He doesn’t, from what I’ve heard, seem to be fully informed on some of the details.

      It’s likely however, that he’s grasped the main point: this is a lost war, has been from the start, and the best Trump can do at this late stage is limit the duration of the carnage as it draws to an end. As Bannon has been remarking recently, the very worst Trump could do would be to get himself trapped in Biden’s legacy by seeking to prolong or intensify the conflict.

      It might be incorrect to deduce much from Trump’s off-the-cuff remarks or from the sometimes odd-sounding statements he’s putting out on foreign policy. These are purely for American domestic consumption.

      Those statements may not represent what he or his team are thinking. They may merely be what he judges the American people would like to hear. It’s a bit much to expect them to be weaned just like that off the diet of American exceptionalism they’ve been fed for so long.

      We’re also maybe forgetting that Trump’s still facing intense internal opposition, either from officials in the administration or from the many opponents he still has in Congress, not a few of them in his own party. We should not forget Macgregor’s insight on what he terms “The Donors”. Congress is to an extent a means of feeding donations from the big interest groups through to cover the cost of American election campaigns. It’s more hopeful than accurate to believe American politics has suddenly become “populist”, or better attuned to the wishes of “We the People”. It’s still, in the terms that Stanford study used, more attuned to the requirements of the American oligarchs or of the big corporations.

      In these circumstances the most we can hope for in the foreign policy area is an end to or at least a reduction in Israeli atrocities and an end to the senseless sacrifice of our Ukrainian proxies. If Trump can manage that then that’s good enough for a win. If he can’t, then there’s nothing more to be hoped for from the new American President as regards foreign policy than there was from Biden.

      You mention oil prices. Chas Freeman observes it’s maybe not a good idea to aim to bring those prices down too low. The American producers need a price high enough to cover extraction costs.

      • TTG says:

        EO,

        This is how LTG Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, sees the situation:

        – Zelensky wants to end the war, Putin doesn’t.
        – Military support for Ukraine is important but insufficient because Russia doesn’t care about casualties.
        – Deprive Russia of money to wage war by getting oil down to $45/barrel.

        I don’t see how the US is supposed to get the price of oil down to $45, but the gist of his assessment is that whatever action we take must be aimed at bringing Russia to the table. Ukraine is already there.

        For Israel, don’t get your hopes up on Trump. He’s totally in sync with Netanyahu. He gave Israel the 2,000 lb bombs Biden was denying them. He wants all Gazans removed from Gaza.

        • TonyL says:

          TTG,

          “I don’t see how the US is supposed to get the price of oil down to $45”

          Agree. The lowest it will get is about $60. At that point the OPEC+ countries will cut output. They won’t let the oil price drop lower.

          $45 is possible when the world economies are in recession.

    • ked says:

      “He does what he does because of the guidance he is given by those around him, political expediency, and what he thinks will make himself look good.”

      good points, Stefan, though you overlooked one or two… $$$$$$ & revenge. he’s done raping women (one hopes) & has moved on to the US Treasury, & he doesn’t mind if folks whom he deems disloyal are murdered (& does what he can to make that easier). what a guy!
      I am somewhat amazed commenters here & elsewhere analyze his shit-show as if he’s competent & rational, w/ the best interests of the US & its people his uppermost motivation. featuring our exceptional analytical skills may be a point of pride, but when it doesn’t align w/ the nature of the beast under examination, it’s kinda a farce.

  13. Yeah, Right says:

    These comments from Trump are really a worrying sign: they indicate that he is attempt to create some leverage out of thin air.

    Axiomatically, that means that he is currently proposing negotiations without having any leverage at all, and he knows it. And, what’s more, Putin knows it.

    So Trump is loudly mulling the idea of imposing “taxes, tariffs and sanctions” on Russia’s trade with the USA and also (apparently) imposing the same on Russia’s trade with other countries.

    Well, the former is pointless – that trade doesn’t exist – and the latter brings him into a full on (and illegal) trade war with China AND India AND Russia.

    The USA can win that. Trump must know that. Putin certainly does, as does Xi, as does Modi.

    Trump is holding a weak hand, and is he does what he is threating to do then he will be attempting to strengthen that weak hand by throwing away his best cards.

    • Mark Logan says:

      Yeah, Right:

      Trump stopping all foreign aid through State screws the Ukrainians in a way that is not being picked up by the press, at least not any MS press that I have seen. The money for arms flows through the Pentagon and is unaffected, according to the Pentagon, so the press seems to have assumed the aid for Ukraine is still flowing. But there is more to fighting a war than arms. Ukraine needs cash to function and those funds flowed through State. That has been summarily stopped…and without protest from Ukraine’s friends in Congress.

      I believe Trump’s trying to pressure both sides to the table to settle this so he can claim he ended the war, but is aware he must tread carefully when stomping on Ukraine, which has a lot of support from Rs in Congress. I suspect Trump’s accountant’s soul views the spending as wasteful, he is clearly thinking of the US government as a business, and business is about money and nothing else.

      • TTG says:

        Mark Logan,

        As far as I know, Rubio said aid to Israel, Egypt and Ukraine is still flowing.

        • Mark Logan says:

          Rubio has issued waivers for Israel and Egypt only, per all I can find…not that that means much, or anything. According to this report Ukraine is preparing for the loss of funds.

          https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/24/foreign-aid-israel-egypt

          I imagine that Rubio and Trump could be pressured into including Ukraine though, if that pressure comes from the right people in Congress.

          • Yeah, Right says:

            There is apparently internal audits now being carried out on where the money went, and for what purpose, and the people who were responsible for disbursing the money have all been sent home on leave until those audits are completed.

            I would assume that Trump is expecting to find evidence of massive corruption and money-laundering going on with the connivance of those US officials, if not their direct participation as beneficiaries.

            If so then that “pressure from the right people in Congress” might turn out to be very muted indeed, because who wants to argue AGAINST the idea that Trump should fight corruption within the US government?

          • Mark Logan says:

            Yeah, Right,

            Trump does not generally seek facts to make an argument, he just makes stuff up, and suffers no political consequences (yet) for doing so.

            My thinking is on what the heck Trump really thinks and what he is trying to do. It appears he is trying to twist both Putin and Zelenskyy’s arms into cutting a deal that ends the war. I’ve seen no evidence he gives a damn about the specifics of such a deal.

  14. Yeah, Right says:

    Sorry, meant to say that “The USA can’t win that”

  15. English Outsider says:

    LeaNder – In answer to your query, I don’t believe it would work. Any European or indeed NATO forces put into Ukraine without Russian consent, whether those forces were termed “peace-keeping” or not, would be attacked. Yavoriv set the pattern there and that pattern has remained constant since.

    As said before, I reckon the Europeans are sounding so warrior-like at the moment because they know they’ll never have to be warriors. It’s essential, however, to keep the war mood going so the European politicians can take us into Cold War II. They’ve obviously set their hearts on that.

    Also preparing for the post-war blame game. “We were prepared to go all the way but the Yanks let us down”. Most of the talk coning out of Europe at the moment is blame game stuff. We can safely ignore it.

    • LeaNder says:

      In answer to your query, I don’t believe it would work
      safe your breath, I am not interested in your opinion, but in the factual basis of your claim, which, should I add ironically, seems to confirm what you have been saying for …?almost?… two, three years now?

      In Bernhard’s framing, which I prefer to yours. Remember we both eat your fish! Maybe the reason. Zelensky–just as you–seems to be quite fond of blame games.

      Digression:
      While by the way Melnyk in his new spot at the UN demands the 5% spending of the GDP on the military as Trump seems to demand.

      https://responsiblestatecraft.org/us-increase-defense-spending/

      MOA, Zelenski, Having Failed, Blames His Sponsors
      https://tinyurl.com/blaming-the-sponsors

      “Now, as he is obviously losing it, he is blaming those who never promised NATO membership to him for not receiving it (machine translation):

      The West’s promises to one day accept Ukraine into NATO were a “lie.” This was stated by President Vladimir Zelensky at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

      Moreover, according to him, the United States and Germany maintained contacts with Russia throughout the war.

      ‘From some states, I think it was initially not a very transparent policy, they did not support us in NATO. And they were just false words that yes, Ukraine will be in NATO. It was not fair to Ukraine and to the Ukrainians. And it was also not fair from our leaders. When some of our leaders said and promised that we would be in NATO. And it wasn’t fair either. And I believe that there was a weak position of Germany and the United States. Because they had a dialogue with the Russians. And I believe that they lost this dialogue. We lost, because they always appeal to the fact that there were once some agreements with the Russians,’ Zelensky said.”

      • TTG says:

        LeaNder,

        Ukraine didn’t express a desire to join NATO until 2002. And before Kuchma was replaced by Yushchenko, he changed his mind and Ukraine’s desire to enter NATO. Yushchenko put Ukraine back on the NATO track. Ukraine still had a long way to go to meet the entry standards. She didn’t get any kind of handle on corruption until fairly recently so NATO membership was always going to be a slow process. Being involved in an ongoing war since 2014 is another impediment. She may never get formal NATO membership, but I think she’ll get membership in a new Central European adjunct to NATO and she’ll have to settle for that.

        • English Outsider says:

          TTG – the first link didn’t come up. May I insert it here?

          https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-peacekeepers/

        • ked says:

          “… a new Central European adjunct to NATO…”
          now you’re talking… but do you go far enough? one must be imaginative in fraught times, but pragmatic too. embrace among the trump & putin regimes’ fondest dreams – dissolve NATO, supersede that long past sell-by-date operation (it’s Nasty!) w/ the CETO (catchy, eh?). the US is now an uncaring alliance leader anyway (maybe observer status?). the EU is realizing it’s interests & preservation is now more Continental than Atlantic (& don’t count on the Brits either – they dither in the water). France holds the card over trump… Force de Frappe is back, baby! or at least, Force de Dissuasion re-focused – or is it re-targeted? deGaulle would be proud… heck, so would Napoleon.
          the front line states would be all-in early, focusing spine & speed in a New European Order among H-bomb capable states … I mean, if the Paki’s can cobble a few together, what self-respecting (& self-defending) former NATO player isn’t proud of their national university’s physics depts? Denmark could probably use some serious deterrence too, so they’ll be in right-quick (& they’re rich & smart, I hear-tell). it could be all set up in a few weeks, on the qt. what a shot in the arm for European industry & commerce!? jobs for neo-fascists AND immigrants… all pulling together!
          further bonus is creating expanded facilities in Switzerland for that international non-profit at Turtle Bay. their old place is destined for redevelopment as a half-way house / luxury condo for misunderstood insurgents transitioning from prison to a quiet retirement in Manhattan anyway. yet more bonus… with all that EuroTrash headache outta mind, the US would improve shot at defeating Panama… been awhile since we succeeded in jungle warfare. the wonderful consequences are endless!

        • LeaNder says:

          TTG, in 2002 32% of Ukrainians thought it was good idea to join NATO the same percentage disagreed. In 2009 after Ukraine had volunteered as part of Bush43’s “New Europe” bloc of his coalition of the willing, matters changed. Now only 21% wanted to join vs 57% objecting and the trend continued with even stronger objections. Apparently some made up their minds. … It has obviously reversed now.
          https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Popular_support_to_NATO_integration_of_Ukraine_in_Ukraine

          Over here we remember well Bush offering/suggesting to offer(?) Ukraine NATO membership in 2003/4/5? Cynicism alert: MIC needs more Art 5 events, since unfortunately we only had one so far in NATO’s long history: 9/11 triggering the Afghanistan war. Didn’t make sense to me from the very start.

          • TTG says:

            LeaNder,

            You’re not reading that wikipedia chart right. Ukrainian public sentiment has consistently favored NATO membership by over 70% for the last few years. Sentiment for not joining is below 10%. These trends have been consistent in their direction for much longer. I thought these trends jumped rapidly after Russia’s February 2022 invasion but apparently, the trends were much more consistent over time.

          • LeaNder says:

            You are welcome, TGG, I am in a bad mood, but don’t misread me. Obviously “reversed now” for me starts in 2014. Althoughi slowly at the time

    • English Outsider says:

      LeaNder – forgot- a selection of the references to putting European troops in:-

      “European ‘peacekeepers’ in Ukraine? A horrible idea.
      Trump and other leaders reportedly discussed the plan but it’s a trial balloon that should be shot down immediately”

      From

      https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-solidarity-ukraine/timeline-russia-military-aggression-against-ukraine/

      https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/eu-in-early-talks-on-sending-peacekeepers-1734531501.html

      https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/europe-needs-a-coalition-of-the-resolute/

      Hope that answers your “… who, when, what Europeans talk about sending their troops?” If not, I’ll dig up some more references.

      ……………………………

      But we do have to understand, all this talk about “peacekeepers” is fluff. Meaningless noise and you and I should not be wasting our time considering it.

      A great number of options have been discussed in the West: temporary ceasefires, two Germany solution, two Korea solution, Japan solution, troops sent in to relieve the Ukrainian forces on the Belarus frontier, troops sent in to man the Dnieper, Macron’s suggestion that French troops with others could be injected into the combat, suggestions of a peace conference but with the Russians not there, or there only to be informed what solution the Peace Conference came up with, “peace-keepers” following some imaginary “settlement” – I bet I’ve forgotten some but all these “optins” put forward were and are merely the West talking fruitlessly to itself. A complete waste of time and all knew it.

      A waste of time because during all these interminable discussions none of the politicians thought to ask the Russians themselves what proposals they’d find acceptable. As far as I could see none of these suggested options would meet the Russian objective in this war: the neutralisation of Ukraine so Ukraine could no longer be used by the West as a means of attacking or destabilising Russia. That’s what “demilitarising and denazification” and no NATO for Ukraine means.

      And I don’t believe this Russian objective will be met by the Western politicians cobbling together some nonsense about European “peace-keepers”. As intimated in my first reply to you, the German politicians should now accept that this attempt at overextending and unbalancing Russia has failed and get on with picking up the pieces. Not an easy job, that, and I’m not at all sure they’re up to it.

      • LeaNder says:

        Hope that answers your “… who, when, what Europeans talk about sending their troops?”

        Your first links shows no plans about European troops new Europe’s or old’s. Beyond that you have nothing better to offer than a Ukrainian & and Atlantic Council link. I will not even open it. For something you claimed as been hotly discussed by Europeans? Because as your earlier gleeful link shows, Trump suggested it? Even New Europe’s polish answer is: nie/niet.

        *****************
        I have a special present–irony alert– for you though, from Oliver Stone via Responsible Statecraft:
        https://youtu.be/EIkUttm6X1w?t=1593

        Gregory Daddis: I wonder do you get a sense that we as Americans are uniquely susceptible to fearmongering

        Oliver Stone: No I think the English help us a lot I think the English are the most martial people I’ve ever seen right right they really have a science of it but …

      • LeaNder says:

        TTG – the first link didn’t come up. May I insert it here?

        https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-peacekeepers/

        Reply

        Good article by Anatole Lieven, a very appreciated source. Problem is, he does not support your strawman argument about the Europeans trying to pull American troops in. One of your most cherished memes.

        sweet:
        TTG – the first link didn’t come up. May I insert it here?
        https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-peacekeepers/

        Neither is your argument supported by the EU document. No trace of discussing sending troops on first sight.

        You feel the Atlantic Council’s–“a nonpartisan organization that galvanizes US leadership and engagement around the world”– discussion or Ukrainian hopes can support your statement that Europeans hotly debates sending troops, sorry, I find that as unconvincing as the linked Ukrainian’s surely understandable hopes.

        Hope that answers your “… who, when, what Europeans talk about sending their troops?” If not, I’ll dig up some more references.

        Thus no, sorry. Did you read Anatole’s article? By the way?

        [Trump, has no intention of sending troops, setting up the stawman:] 2, he’d have to base his air in Europe and the Europeans would squeal like stuck pigs and surrender forthwith if Russian missiles started coming their way and …

        The Euros are currently talking big about putting troops in themselves. In the hope that when they got hammered, that’d force the Americans to come in and save their bacon.

        Are they, to the extent you suggest? No other troubles?

        • English Outsider says:

          You mention Anatol Lieven, LeaNder. Gifted family. Descended from Baltic/German aristos. One fought for Alexander 1 in the Napoleonic war. Served with distinction. Another for the White Russian side in the Civil War. Yet another for Latvian independence later.

          Looked it all up a while back because Dominic Lieven wrote an historical masterpiece. On 1812 and after. Along the way he explains the logistics of the time and all the political and military difficulties Alexander 1 faced as he put together and held together the alliance that defeated Napoleon.

          What with all that one side of him and the then naval and commercial British superpower the other, poor old Napoleon was on a bit of a loser. Still a military genius though. You might have come across Montgomery’s modest reply when asked who were the three greatest generals ever. “The other two were Alexander the Great and Napoleon.”

          • English Outsider says:

            TTG – may I add to my response to LeaNder?

            Should have given the title of that historical masterpiece referred to: “Russia against Napoleon”, by Dominic Lieven.

            A monument of ground-breaking research. Not hyperbole. Even the experts are impressed:-

            https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1545&context=nwc-review

            Lieven started out ahead of the pack when he got to write that book. An abiding interest in the subject since childhood. Years of academic research. Access to archives that hadn’t been trawled before. Three years off for the work. And a keen analytical mind to put it all together.

            Even so, I don’t think many could have done what Lieven did. It wasn’t only 1812 that needed a re-think. What happened after the European march on Moscow is complex and difficult to disentangle. As are the military and diplomatic thrills and spills as the Russians made their way to Paris.

            And as Glantz was to tell us of a later war, and as that brief review by Kenneth Jensen hints, what the Russians are up to when they’re doing war is seldom what we in the West think they’re up to. In his book Lieven puts in some time dispelling Western popular myths about the Russian way of war as well.

            To move two centuries forward, that mysterious chain-smoking Russian Colonel, Trukhan, does that for us too, just a little. He does it when it comes to the most recent of the attacks on Russia: the current Ukrainian war.

            There, it’s almost as if there had been two wars going on simultaneously. The war that Gerasimov and his General Staff are bringing to its conclusion even now. And the war fought by that trio of knuckleheads, Cavoli, Milley and Radakin, that was the only war we got to hear about from the Western press. For the popular myths about the Ukrainian war that we in the West hold to so tenaciously bear little relation to what really happened in that murderous confrontation.

            Not only a monument of research, Lieven’s book. Also a page turner. And it’s something of an achievement to turn a story into a page turner when we all know the ending to start with.

            But don’t we always know the ending of that particular story? Some time, when the dust has long settled, maybe some future Lieven will work through the archives and find out what impelled the European politicians to have yet another go at Russia in 2022.

            Maybe it’s just that it was time for the White Tiger to stir itself again. It does that, every now and again, after all. But surely Barbarossa Scholz and the Europoodles, before they ventured on the current enterprise, should have thought of another of Montgomery’s famous sayings? “First Rule of War. Never march on Moscow.”

            We’re now finding out again, LeaNder, about Montgomery’s First Rule. A hard thing for we Europeans to say but the only verdict on us can be, serve us right. Had we succeeded in destabilising the RF, near a quarter of the globe would have been plunged into turbulence and poverty. Was that something we Europeans should have been aiming at? Was that a goal to be proud of?

        • leith says:

          LeaNder –

          Who is this Wolfgang Ischinger that wants the BRICS countries to be peacekeepers in Ukraine? Damned dumbest idea I ever heard. They’d turn Kyiv over to Putin.

          • LeaNder says:

            that wants the BRICS countries to be peacekeepers in Ukraine?
            Where did you find that, Leith? I heard discussions about expanding beyond Europe–but BRICS specifically?–while following EO’s hint on us squaling weaklings. 😉

            Yes, maybe a good catch, he would be definitively an influental voice, but he is not really in the news as supporter of piece corps so far. Below he sounds a bit hesitant. A point for my sweetheart EO? …. Responding to Dr. Liana Fix, Washington DC on the topic.

            https://x.com/LianaFix/status/1882796952297095316

            https://x.com/ischinger/status/1883046048765231272

            I could imagine this was a rather ill guided position from your perspective? March 2023? No? Was Ukraine strong enough at that point? I forget.
            https://www.dw.com/en/ischinger-its-time-to-prepare-for-peace-talks/video-65029832

            Richard Walker
            03/17/2023 March 17, 2023
            According to former Munich Security Conference Chair Wolfgang Ischinger, Western powers should start preparing for peace talks to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. “There are all sorts of possible options, and we need to do our homework and be prepared for any and all such options,” he told DW.

            Ischinger is a German diplomat who only caught my attention when he was heading the Munich Security Conference.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfgang_Ischinger#Career

            not proofread 😉

          • leith says:

            LeaNder –

            Reportedly Ischinger said it at Davos last Friday:

            https://bsky.app/profile/sumlenny.bsky.social/post/3lglntquk7s2o

            Reminds me of the old joke about Trump in his first term when at an intel briefing in the oval office he is told: “Sir, three Brazilian solders were killed in Afghanistan last night.” Trump looks absolutely devastated, nobody’s ever seen him like this. He sinks back in his chair, saying OMG over and over. Then he composes himself and says: “Okay. Just remind me, how many are there in a brazillion?”

          • LeaNder says:

            Hmm, Ok, thanks leith. So Sergej Sumlenny phrases it in the way it should be phrased in our present ‘neo-clash of cultures’ invironment? The topic has been touched upon by our new Sunday night talk show host with the coy glance. She asked Ischinger about peace troop. Serious question? Even before there is at least some kind to truce? Seriously???

            I am on his side. But who is this guy? This is your first bluesky social link for me. So he feels we should elect the CDU/CSU and the FDP into power, alternatively although he does not the latter the CDU/CSU & the Green party. Maybe because next to their worrior spirit is not strong enough to erase remnents of their earlier social ideas?

            Obviously there have to be some cuts in their social sector. His favored parties will manage that.

            Germany’s guru diplomat and Merkel’s minion Ischinger made some absolutely crazy statements, effectively urging for occupation of Ukraine by BRICS countries

            Context?

            Aha that’s were you got the “BRICS”. But interestingly he dislikes the same German politicians as EO not least ‘Barbararossa’ (?) the social democrats more generally as too Russia friendly. As he misunderstands some basics about Germany an its election system.

            Here is a wonderful British response to Ischinger, I love the accent:
            https://x.com/PawelSokala/status/1882426585128776116

            Once again context.

            Otherwise a ‘joke’ by Oliver Stone for your and EO’s entertainment:

            https://youtu.be/EIkUttm6X1w?t=1593

            Gregory Daddis: I wonder do you get a sense that we as Americans are uniquely susceptible to fearmongering

            Oliver Stone: No I think the English help us a lot I think the English are the most martial people I’ve ever seen right right they really have a science of it but …

          • English Outsider says:

            Leith – for there to be meaningful negotiations
            Zelensky would have to repeal the decree that forbids him arriving at a settlement with the Russians.

            Understandable that he won’t. It’s been obvious since Istanbul that the only negotiation now possible is negotiation on the terms of capitulation. As Borrell said – you might recollect it being mentioned before – this war will be decided on the battlefield. Though you know the view I’ve held throughout. This war was decided on February 21st 2022.

            Maybe even as Patrick Armstrong predicted, long ago now, in 2014. It was surely always unrealistic for us to expect the Russians to put up with NATO using Ukraine as a means of weakening or destabilising Russia. As an American patriot you’ll be aware that no US administration would have tolerated Mexico being similarly used the other way.

            More so now, when we see assassination and sabotage missions being run into Russia, Russian civilians and civilian installations within the Donbass still being deliberately targeted, NATO weapons being fired into Russian territory, attempts to damage NPP’s – three to my knowledge so far – and our puppet government in Kiev intensifying its persecution of the Russians in Ukraine. Turn that round and imagine it all being done out of Mexico. Do you believe any American President would put up with that for an instant?

            Nor, for that matter, would any American President be easy with first strike capable missiles stationed, were that possible, only a few minutes from Washington.

            Washington’s and Berlin/Brussels’ only chance of getting away with all that was to smash Russia in the sanctions war. That failed. As Patrick Armstrong and Larry Johnson pointed out repeatedly in these pages, it was bound to fail. All that remains to do, if it can be done, is to save our proxies yet more deaths and loss of territory. Or do we really hope to keep this carnival of death running until the very last Ukrainian?

            Our politicians and press have been fooling us. They have, for three years now, been selling us an imaginary war in an imaginary country against an imaginary enemy. The real war is not as they have told us. The real Ukraine is not as they have portrayed it to us. The real Russia, whatever that is, had no wish for this war and it took a deal of provocation to get them to fight it.

            Even the most fervid of our politicians, however, can no longer pretend this is a war that could be won. Time, as said so many times before, to leave behind the delusions the politicians and press have fed us and let our proxies off the hook.

          • TTG says:

            EO,

            Patrick Armstrong also confidently predicted that Putin would never invade Ukraine. He thought such an invasion would be foolish and unnecessary. He and many others stuck to that prediction until the invasion started. To his credit, he admitted he got that terribly wrong.

            Russia was not weakened or destabilized prior to the 2022 invasion. The seizure of Crimea back in 2014 was illegal, but I do understand why Russia did it. They feared losing Sevastopol and seeing a NATO flag flying above the port. Putin screwed the pooch on that one with his 2022 invasion. His Black Sea Fleet is badly crippled and his port facilities at Sevastopol are now useless. His port at Tartus was also lost. His invasion of Ukraine contributed to that loss as well.

            What else did that 2022 invasion bring to Russia? It brought war. All those drone and missile attacks on Russia are a natural response to the invasion. If there was no invasion, there would be no drone and missile attacks on Russian infrastructure. Sevastopol would still be a thriving Russian naval port and the Black Sea Fleet would still be a major naval force.

          • leith says:

            EO –

            Zelenskyy is ready to negotiate, despite his 2022 decree. Putin is stalling on negotiations.

            Assassination and sabotage missions are being run by Putin in several NATO countries.

            No Russian civilians and civilian installations are targeted by Ukraine. No civilians are deliberately targeted in the Donbas. No NPPs are targeted by Ukraine. No Russians in Ukraine are being persecuted. You’ve got that all backwards – again. It’s an old KGB tactic to accuse others of doing what they themselves are doing. AKA “l’accusation en miroir” or ‘Projection’ where toxic people in the Kremlin accuse others of being the toxic ones.

  16. Keith Harbaugh says:

    I think Trump is pressuring the wrong side.
    He, and we, should be pressuring Ukraine to accept the quite reasonable terms Putin has offered:

    Putin has said there can be no peace in Ukraine unless
    1. Kyiv surrenders four regions, as well as Crimea, and
    2. drops its ambitions to join Nato. He has also demanded that
    3. the West end all sanctions against Moscow.

    Fine. Just accept those perfectly reasonable (IMO) terms.
    They certainly won’t hurt the U.S.

    Of course I realize that some here are dedicated to helping and supporting Ukraine.

    Another issue:
    What comes next, after an armistice is declared?
    John Mearsheimer raises the possibility of a “frozen conflict.”
    https://youtu.be/lCeGZ5ORnyc?t=1m20s
    Again, I entirely endorse and accept Putin’s conditions as stated by Mearsheimer.

    Finally, Judge Napolitano, Ray McGovern, and Larry Johnson have a very interesting discussion of foreign policy issues here:
    https://youtu.be/ui0ijNbGaaM?t=9m30s

    The preceding ~10m are an interesting discussion of relations between the assassination of JFK and a murder on the C&O canal towpath.
    JFK was evidently screwing the woman murdered on that towpath,
    Mary Pinchot Meyer https://g.co/kgs/kJJFRDC
    I have both walked and bicycles on that towpath numerous times.
    (Also, BTW, the Mount Vernon Trail.)
    I have never gotten the slightest sense of danger there
    other than the damage the rough surface posed to a racing bike).
    Never seen a black person on that walkway.
    That Mary Pinchot Meyer
    (divorced from Cord Meyer, and screwing JFK)
    was murdered there seems bizarre.
    For a book analyzing the relations between various Washington power players in the 1950s and 60s, see

    “Mary’s Mosaic: The CIA Conspiracy to Murder John F. Kennedy, Mary Pinchot Meyer, and Their Vision for World Peace” https://g.co/kgs/uZdANst

    I don’t know about conspiracies, but a murder of JFK’s mistress on such a peaceful towpath does seem quite surprising.

    • TTG says:

      Keith Harbaugh,

      There is nothing reasonable about demanding Ukraine hand over four oblasts to Russia. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but there is nothing reasonable about it.

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