Tuesday's election in North Carolina's 9th Congressional District was a bellwether and is good news for Donald Trump despite punditry and media nay saying.
But you would not know this from watching or reading the so-called journalists who are being paid to report news. They are a pathetic, feckless, lazy lot. The special Congressional elections in North Carolina on Tuesday (September 10) exposes their incompetence and bias. The fake-news cable channels prior to Tuesday's election were painting a dire picture for Republican candidate, Dan Bishop. The nitwit pundits on CNN and MSNBC were describing the contest between Bishop and Democrat Dan McCready as a bellwether. Bishop was down in the polls by 17 points and McCready barely lost the fraud tainted election in 2018.
You must first understand why North Carolina was holding this election in an 0ff-election year. The 2018 contest, which was ostensibly won by the Republican candidate, Mark Harris, was declared invalid. The New York Times reported:
Mark Harris, the North Carolina Republican who nearly won a seat in Congress last year but saw his political fortunes collapse after the revelation that his campaign had financed a fraud-tainted voter-turnout effort, said on Tuesday that he would not run in a new election. . . .
Mr. Harris’s decision was not especially surprising in the wake of an evidentiary hearing last week in Raleigh, where state officials and witnesses described an absentee ballot effort that was rife with misconduct. Although Mr. Harris denied any personal wrongdoing, he testified that he had hired the contractor at the center of the scandal, L. McCrae Dowless Jr., and he acknowledged that he gave “incorrect” testimony to the state board last Thursday.
What a great set up for the Democrats. A corrupt Republican who tried to steal the election. And the Democrat? Dan McCready, a young, attractive and articulate candidate who served his country as a Marine. Cannot get better than that unless you change his name to Jesus Christ.
And the Dems and punditry were very excited about this new bite at the apple. The Washington Post's Jen Rubin weighed in:
In sum, the NC-9 is undergoing a rerun due to fraud that the GOP state party could have nipped in the bud, and the GOP nominee is the fellow who invested in a far-right website home to white nationalists. How is the GOP getting away with this?
Well, Evan McMullin and Mindy Finn, former Republicans who ran as an independent conservative presidential ticket in 2016 and now operate the nonpartisan StandUp Republic (SUR) and American Values PAC dedicated to good government, defense of the rule of law and opposition to racism, decided to step in. McMullin and Finn’s organizations plan to spend a total of $500,000 in the final weeks of the upcoming special election in the 9th Congressional District for advertisements across digital, broadcast television, cable and radio.
And North Carolina's major newspaper, the Charlotte Observer, went all in for the Democrat:
It should come as little surprise that this editorial board is endorsing Dan McCready in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District special election. We endorsed McCready, a moderate Democrat, in the 9th District race last fall that was tainted by absentee ballot fraud. “McCready has far more potential to effectively represent the 9th, and to help change the tone in Congress,” we said then.
We still believe that, and we believe that McCready’s opponent in this special election, Republican Dan Bishop, has shown himself unfit to represent the 9th. Bishop is the unrepentant author of HB2, a discriminatory law that cost Charlotte and North Carolina millions of dollars in business and lost events. “There’s no Mecklenburg legislator we can remember who has done more damage to Charlotte,” we said about him in 2016.
Whoops. Republican Dan Bishop won by a significant margin–almost 4000 votes compared to the narrow win by Harris in 2018 (only 905 votes separated the winner from the loser). Any mea culpas from the lame stream media pundits. Nope. They went into full spin mode. They broke out the lipstick and started doing a pig makeover. But lipstick on a pig does not change the reality–the pig is still a pig.
I believe the numbers for the 2018 contest and the results from this week's election tells a different and, I think, a dramatic story.
In the November 2018 election Republican candidate Mark Harris eked out a win with 49.30% of the vote. His Democrat challenger got 48.9%. It was a 905 vote difference–139,246 for Harris and 138,341 for Dan McCready. And he did that with some cheating.
So what happens with no cheating? Are the Democrats so energized that they will march through a brick wall to get to the polls? Are the Republicans so demoralized that they will sit home and pout? And the answer to these questions is a resounding NO.
Dan Bishop won by 3,937 votes. Quite decisive compared to 2018.
The real story is the paltry turnout for an election that attracted a lot of Democrat and Republican money. In 2018 there were 277,587 total votes–139,246 for the Republican and 138,341 for the Democrat. With so much ostensibly on the line this time, the conventional wisdom of the pundits was that energized Democrats would come out en masse and send a message to Trump.
Nope. Total votes? 188,225–96,081 for Republican Bishop and 92,144 for two time loser McCready.
Despite the Washington and media hype surrounding the election, North Carolinians treated this like any off-year election–with a shrug of the metaphorical shoulders.
Democrats and anti-Trump Republican groups pumped money into the election and got nothing. The Republicans also pumped money in and gained ground in terms of vote margin compared to the 2018 tainted contest.
If the Democrats are pinning hopes for victory in 2020 on a campaign built around demonizing Donald Trump, the results from the 9th District of North Carolina strongly suggest that is a fool's mission. Trump's best ally are the Egyptian Democrats. Why the Egyptians? Because the Democrats are in DeNial (i.e. The Nile–my apologies for a lame pun). A typical example of the Democrat denial comes courtesy of Politico:
While the GOP can celebrate the election of a new congressman, Dan Bishop, his 2-point victory in a district President Donald Trump carried by 12 points in 2016 continues a worrisome trend for the party, which suffered heavy losses in the 2018 midterms and has not seen the political environment improve as Trump gears up for reelection.
Trump cannot win a second term without improving his political position, and Democrats know it, casting Bishop’s narrow win as a sign of progress in North Carolina. But Democrats also saw worrying trends of their own on Tuesday, as their candidate Dan McCready benefited from a surge in metropolitan support that would have brought them victory — if not for an even stronger swell in rural support for Bishop and the GOP.
There was no surge for either candidate. Democrats and Republicans attracted fewer votes this go round compared to 2018. But, the victory belonged to the guy who tied himself to Donald Trump. I call that a Bellwether.