The United States has paused major portions of its intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, squeezing the flow of vital information that Kyiv has used to repel invading Russian forces and strike back at select targets inside Russia, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials. The rupture in intelligence-sharing includes a halt in targeting data that U.S. spy agencies supply to Kyiv so it can launch American-provided weapons and Ukrainian-made long-range drones at Russian targets, Ukrainian officials said. Some Ukrainian missile operators say they are no longer receiving information needed to hit targets inside Russia.
The pause comes amid a decision early this week by President Donald Trump to freeze future deliveries of weapons to Ukraine, to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into peace negotiations with Russia. CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed the latest move Wednesday, telling Fox News that the United States has paused both intelligence-sharing and weapons systems in the aftermath of a contentious Oval Office meeting last week between Trump and Zelensky. Ratcliffe said the pauses would “go away” once it was clear Zelensky was committed to peace.
The move is another major reversal from the approach of the Biden administration, which set up special systems to share copious amounts of intelligence on Russian military forces with Ukraine, officials said — virtually unprecedented for a non-NATO country. Trump administration officials did not offer specifics on when the United States began restricting intelligence-sharing with Ukraine or what the new limitations are.
A U.S. defense official confirmed on Wednesday that most intelligence-sharing via military channels with Ukraine has been suspended. It was not immediately clear what the exceptions to that decision were, but they may include information related to self-defense. Another person familiar with the pause said the Trump administration had halted all intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, other than information needed for “force protection” — protecting Ukrainian troops under attack. Both spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.
A Ukrainian military officer familiar with operations of the long-range multiple rocket launching system known as HIMARS, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak freely about classified intelligence, said that for roughly the past month, at least one of the Ukrainian groups responsible for launching rockets from the U.S. systems has not received coordinates to strike more than about 40 miles beyond the line of contact between Russian and Ukrainian forces.
Such intelligence had allowed Ukraine to use the U.S.-provided HIMARS systems to launch ATACMS, a longer-range U.S. guided missile system, and strike targets deep inside occupied Ukrainian territory or inside of Russia. The strikes have disabled some Russian air defense systems and forced Moscow to move its logistical hubs hundreds of miles from the front lines, which has slowed down Russian resupply operations. But in recent weeks, these coordinates have stopped being delivered, the Ukrainian military officer said, apparently signaling that such intelligence-sharing had halted.
https://archive.md/9pWFw#selection-807.0-905.169
Comment: This is how the WaPo covered the initial announcement of the halt of US intelligence support to Ukraine. Even now, the full extent of this cutoff isn’t clear, but it seems to be fairly comprehensive. It includes military satellite ISR data, RIVET JOINT manned aircraft ISR data and now Maxar commercial imagery. It surely includes SIGINT and HUMINT.
The obvious reason is to pressure Ukraine into seeking an immediate cease fire and some semblance of a peace amenable to the Trump administration, to cause Ukraine enough pain at the hand of the Russians to force them to the table, whether they want to or not. It makes perfect sense if Trump believes he only has leverage on Ukraine and none on Russia. I think it is only recently that Trump has realized that he does hold leverage over Russia. However, I believe in both cases, his leverage is limited. It will be up to Ukraine and Russia to decide when a ceasefire and peace talks will be appropriate.
The loss of US intelligence is a grievous blow to Ukraine’s ability to both defend herself and launch further offensive actions against Russia and this loss has already brought death and destruction to the Ukrainians. But not all is lost. Europe is stepping up to seal the breach caused by our withdrawal of support.
Britain has three RIVET JOINT aircraft. That will help alleviate the loss of the US RIVET JOINTs, but limited refueling capacity also hurts. France has offered her CSO reconnaissance satellites. The third satellite of the constellation was just put into orbit this week. Finland’s ICEYE SAR satellite constellation is also available. These three platforms should soon be able to provide the early warning of Russian missile and drone strikes to allow Ukraine to react properly to those attacks, but the replacement will not be immediate or complete.
On the offensive side, the loss of US intelligence will have little effect on the tactical level. Drones have taken the place of most methods of battlefield reconnaissance, surveillance and target acquisition and the Ukrainians are probably the masters of drone warfare. Even so, one Ukrainian drone operator has said that their UAV operations are 15% less effective because of the US intel cut off. That’s quite a bit. Ukraine’s HUMINT and special ops reconnaissance capabilities are also fairly robust. What the loss of US intelligence does affect is Ukraine’s ability to use ATACMS, but even that effect is limited more by supply than a loss of intel..
CONFIRMED: Crews of the M142 GMLRS (HIMARS) and M270 and MARS MLRS use the onboard Fire Control System to program each rocket in the field. M30/M31 munitions do not require any U.S. DoD input, intel, or authorization. There is no “kill switch” or “geofencing.” Ukraine has been using M30/M31 rockets since June 2022 without the need for U.S. intel. HIMARS is not disabled.
The MGM-140 ATACMS tactical ballistic missile is dependent on U.S. ISTAR and intel for programming, which is why there were 2+ years of resistance to provide them to Ukraine. Currently, ATACMS can’t be used, but there is a twist. Ukraine has already exhausted its MGM-140 inventory, and even if Harris had won the 2024 election, it was unlikely that it would receive additional shipments due to inventory constraints.
As an aside, some time ago Yeah, Right and I went round and round about this very point. So as it turns out Yeah, Right was correct in pointing out that Ukrainian use of ATACMS requires US input for targeting. I was correct in that the Ukrainians do not require any US input to use HIMARS.
As far as long range drone strikes are concerned, the loss of US intelligence seems to have limited effect. Oil refineries are still being struck. The loss of imagery would affect damage assessment, but drone imagery seems to work here, too. I think the biggest effect of the US intelligence cut off is due to the suddenness of the cut off.
TTG
Like with so much else that arises from Trump’s primitive mind, there will be consequences that have the potential to do some serious damage to the country. I expect that many other nations will be hesitant to share intelligence with the US and the cost of that is unknown at this time, but could suddenly become apparent. I wonder if Tulsi, et al, are aware that they will be held responsible for any failures?
This effort is just another phase of the retreat of the US as the leader of the free world and that will also create problems. Some mild mannered folks, like Swedes and Canadians, are now organizing rapidly growing boycotts of American goods and services.
That will soon show up in earnings reports in many large US corporations.
Seventy seven million Americans booked trips on the second voyage of the Titanic and it has left port.
That’s rich coming from a guy who fled Sweden decades ago. What’s the trade balance between the US and Sweden? Canada exports 30% of their GDP to us. They have zero leverage.
30% of $2.21 trillion is what? Well over $660 billion. That’s a lot of bucks. More than what the EU and the UK together export to the US. More than what China and Japan together export to the US. Too bad Bozo is doing this. It’s going to hurt the American people. And the shite-head is only doing it because Melania smiled at Trudeau when she cheek-kissed him at the G& six years ago. https://au.lifestyle.yahoo.com/melania-trump-justin-trudeau-kiss-g7-summit-232423134.html
He thinks he’s been cucked. What a loser.
Thx for confirmation/clarification of who controls input for targeting (ATACMS = US, HIMARS = Ukraine). IMO, it’s important for us mere citizens to understand that.
Seems to me that pulling the plug on intel for long-range attacks kinda gives Trump some leverage over Russia, but not much: if they don’t cooperate on peace talks, Trump just flips that switch back on, and Ukraine could lob our missiles into Russia again. Of course, if they’ve used all the long-range stuff we gave them, and we don’t have any more on the shelf, that’s a nothingburger.
If that 40-mile limit is real, it seems like a decent idea. Essentially, it would allow tactical use but not strategic use. The only parts of [pre-2014] Ukraine that would place off-limits are Crimea and a little bit of Luhansk Oblast. IMO, Crimea counts as part of Russia now (again), so blocking Ukrainian attacks on infrastructure there is shows [relatively] good faith from the US toward real peace talks.
As someone who is extremely skeptical of Trump’s ability to deal with the details of serious international policy, I’m kinda surprised to say that this (intel block) seems pretty well designed.
Elkern –
I had thought that the UK’s BAE systems had come up with a workaround for ISTAR. If not, I’ll bet some of those slick Ukrainian s/w engineers could. Moot point though. Unless they can ‘borrow’ some ATACMS from Turkey or Poland or one of the other eight other countries that have them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATACMS#Operators
“Ukraine has supplied the U.S. with extensive intelligence and vast amounts of data on Russian technology, captured equipment, battlefield operational guides, weapon performance, and countermeasures against US provided systems. A shame no one seems to remembers or appreciates it.” That’s from Tatarigami: https://bsky.app/profile/tatarigami.bsky.social
Not that Trump gives a rat’s ass, he doesn’t care about intel on Russia. What he might do instead is to pass that Ukrainian intel data to Putin.
I do not believe that I ever went “around and around and around” with you on the issue of HIMARS. If you thought otherwise then I must have phrased my words poorly, because I was always of the opinion that HIMARS required no outside input to operate.
ATACMS was always a different kettle of fish altogether, and I am pleased that on this issue we are now in agreement.
Goodness, never thought I’d be writing those words….
I suspect that the intelligence restrictions will hurt and they cannot easily be worked around by Ukraine because I suspect that what we are talking about is REAL TIME (or almost real time) intelligence that only the U.S. can provide.
T put it another way, I wouldn’t be surprised if our targeting intelligence went way beyond specifying which building was to be hit and instead could specify which floor, which office and which window to hit to maximize damage this week. Stuff that is way beyond Google Earth.
Given that Putin has explained in great detail what will happen to any country that facilitates from their own soil a Ukrainian strike on anything affecting Russia’s defensive posture, for example their nuclear capabilities, then Trumps reticence is laudable.
Never mind, U-turn Trump has reversed the interruption of arms and intelligence, which is not surprising given his short attention span. At least for the time being. Stay tuned.