In a move aimed at protecting American jobs and ensuring food security, the Trump Administration has announced new tariffs on major shrimp-supplying countries, a decision praised by the Southern Shrimp Alliance. “We’ve watched as multigenerational family businesses tie up their boats, unable to compete with foreign producers who play by a completely different set of rules,” said John Williams, executive director of the Southern Shrimp Alliance. “We are grateful for the Trump Administration’s actions today, which will preserve American jobs, food security, and our commitment to ethical production.“ Unfair trade policies that disadvantage American shrimpers include billions of dollars in subsidies from international financial institutions to develop foreign shrimp aquaculture, along with widespread use of forced labor, banned antibiotics, and environmental destruction that reduce the cost of shrimp production in major supplying countries.
The U.S. shrimp industry has suffered significant losses in recent years. Since 2021, the prices of imported shrimp have dropped significantly, decreasing their value by more than $1.5 billion. This economic downturn has led the U.S. shrimp industry to lose nearly 50% of its market value, forcing many shrimping businesses to close. Despite the falling wholesale prices, retail shrimp prices have remained historically high for consumers, highlighting the disconnect between wholesale and retail markets.
The tariffs come at a critical moment when 94% of shrimp, and all seafood, consumed in the United States is already imported. This extreme import dependence stands in stark contrast to overall U.S. food imports, which account for just 15% of American food consumption, according to the FDA. “Our government has been outsourcing our food supply to companies engaged in practices we would never accept on American soil,” Williams noted. “Without quickly addressing unfair trade, we are choosing a food supply chain that is fully outsourced to industries that engage in horrible practices. If we wait for systemic reforms, we will lose our domestic shrimp industry.”
The new duties are expected to slow imports and prevent Americans from becoming completely dependent on foreign shrimp producers while the administration addresses harmful trade policies and enforcement deficiencies. International financial institutions—supported by U.S. government funds and taxpayer dollars—have invested billions into foreign shrimp aquaculture development, helping multinational companies rapidly displace the well-regulated U.S. shrimp industry.
The total number of shrimp and aquaculture development projects increased significantly in the past decade, primarily in India and Ecuador, which supply nearly 70% of all U.S. shrimp imports and are the largest competitors to the U.S. shrimp industry. Ecuador alone received over $550 million in development funding for shrimp farming since 2000, with $195 million going directly to private companies competing with U.S. shrimpers. This investment helped fuel a staggering 150% increase in Ecuadorian shrimp exports to the U.S. in just four years. Similar funding has gone to other major producers like India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, creating a global shrimp oversupply.
Most consumers remain unaware that the majority of imported shrimp comes from countries linked to widespread use of forced labor and banned antibiotics—documented by U.S. and foreign governments, human rights organizations, and investigative journalists. Despite these concerns, many U.S. retailers continue sourcing large volumes of shrimp from the most problematic countries, often relying on inadequate industry certification programs. “Today’s demand for shrimp is met at a massive human, environmental, and public health cost,” said Williams. “When we outsource our seafood production to industries that use forced labor and environmental shortcuts, we’re making a choice about the kind of world we want to support.”
https://shrimpalliance.com/u-s-shrimp-industry-hails-new-tariffs-as-crucial-lifeline
Comment: This is an example of how fine grained economic policies should be in order to be effective. On the plus side, I’m sure any further US support for foreign aquaculture has ended. I can’t fathom the reasons for providing that kind of support in the first place. And Trump’s massive tariff regime will definitely aid the domestic shrimp industry as the article states. However, these tariffs will probably not stand long enough to help our shrimp fleets. Just this morning, I saw a headline that Trump and Argentina’s Milei have reached a zero-zero tariff agreement. So all that Red Argentine Shrimp will continue to flow into the US without tariffs. Will the current duties on foreign seafood continue to stand? I doubt it with this zero-zero deal. Any further zero-zero deals with countries like India, Ecuador or Indonesia, the top three shrimp exporting nations, will doom our domestic shrimp industry.
Will Trump care? I doubt it. He’ll have his zero-zero trade deals to crow about. For that matter, I doubt most Americans will care, either, except for those communities involved in the shrimp industries. I personally think those communities and industries are worth protecting with import duties and quotas. Hell, I’d like to see them thrive and expand. Build more shrimp trawlers. Help two industries. This is an instance where tariffs can be a good thing… if targeted and applied judiciously.
I’m still in a quandary about the desired end state of trump’s massive tariffs. Is it simply to totally upend the current economic system and see what happens? Is it to make trillions and trillions of dollars in tariffs? Is it to force other nations to adopt zero tariff policies? Does that include zero quota limitations? Or is it to protect and rebuild our industries? Trump administration spokespeople were all over the map this weekend. Even Lutnick, that truly annoying used car salesman, seemed inconsistent in his comments. He said the tariffs are here to stay and that this will bring our factories back. He also said we are the number one consumers in the world and other nations are clamoring to close trade deals to have access to those American consumers. So are the tariffs going to stay in place or not?
And does Lutnick and Trump expect the rest of the world to adopt our voracious appetite to consume or do they expect us to curb our consumerism? I can’t see either happening. We Americans have no intention of giving up our wants. That would require self-discipline. And most of the rest of the world just can’t afford our appetites to consume ever more and more. Many even see such consumerism as crass and immoral. I live a pretty cushy life, but, Jesus, there are limits. Being self-sufficient, frugal and content with less has its own rewards in my opinion.
BTW, white and brown shrimp are making their way into the Chesapeake Bay. Last year both Virginia and Maryland issued a small number of commercial permits for 16 foot beam shrimp trawling in the bay. I know our local crabbers often sell local shrimp probably as a by catch. Cast nets are also used by locals from shore or skiff.
TTG
I thought this was The Onion. I’m waiting for extortionist demands. Don’t pay your fair share? We’ll let the Houthis take your ship.
I want Trump to announce China gets a “ONE MILLION PERCENT TARIFF!” in an Sicilian Dr. Evil voice. We need a court jester for the wannabe king.
https://newrepublic.com/post/193700/donald-trump-economic-adviser-demands-tariffs
Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, delivered a speech at the Hudson Institute complete with a to-do list for other countries looking to lighten the load that “unfair barriers to trade” and “unsustainable trade deficits” have supposedly inflicted on the United States.
[C]ountries could roll over and accept Trump’s tariffs without retaliation. “Critically, retaliation will exacerbate rather than improve the distribution of burdens and make it even more difficult for us to finance global public goods,” Miran said in his remarks.
Miran said that countries could “stop unfair and harmful trading practices” by buying more American products, specifically noting that countries could boost defense spending and procurement from the U.S. by “taking strain off our servicemembers and creating jobs here.”
Finally, Miran said that countries could “simply write checks” to the Treasury Department.
“I’m waiting for extortionist demands.”
Trump’s tariff are an attempt at a Mafia-style extortion racket.
His problem (as he sees it, I don’t) is that the USA is running current account deficits with pretty much everyone.
He doesn’t like that, and he wants to reverse it so that the USA runs current account surpluses.
He just admitted that in his presser on Air Force One.
Imposing “retaliatory tariffs” is actually a very blunt instrument to correct that imbalance in the current account because – very often – that imbalance is not the result of tariffs but is, instead, the product of Triffin’s Paradox.
(A country with the global reserve currency is required to run current account deficits, because that’s how that country “exports” its currency to the rest of the globe)
But tariffs really are an EXCELLENT threat to hold over the heads of other trading partners, and “extortion” is an EXCELLENT way of forcing those parties to buy stuff from you that they don’t really need or want from you.
After all, that’s why Mafia Dons run extortion rackets: buy your stuff from us and nothing bad needs to happen to your dinky little shop.
Don Trump is attempting the same, but on a global scale: nice economy ya’ got there. Real Nice, hey, boys? Be a real shame if tariffs were to happen to it, know wot’ I mean?
YR,
All government is a mafia style extortion racket. They got the guns, you got the money. You’re gonna pay what they demand and do what they say, or they’re gonna take your house, or throw you in jail. If you protest too aggressively, they’ll just shoot you. Show me a government isn’t like that.
The government has a monopoly on violence.
That is part of the “social contract” between the government and the governed, and is in no way comparable to a Mafia gang which is – at its core – nothing but a mockery of governance.
“Show me a government isn’t like that.”
Eric, a government that acts in the way that you describe can’t govern. And the reason why is obvious: they are breaking the “social contract” with the people that they govern.
You are describing a “tyranny”, so back at’cha’: show me a tyranny that has lasted.
YR,
You’re splitting hairs and going all ‘no true Scotsman’ again.
Back at you, show me any government that has lasted.
Rome lasted a while, the Ottoman Empire; both expansionist, empirical in every way and quite tyrannical. For that matter, the British Empire lasted a good spell; lots of wog bashing and imposition of mercantilism, taxes and tariffs. There are many. It is actually the democracies that fail and dissipate relatively quickly.
Eric: “Rome lasted a while, the Ottoman Empire”
Eric, we’ve had this discussion before: Empires are Empires, and Empires have “subjects”.
There is no “social contract” between the Emperor and the people he has conquered.
Eric: “For that matter, the British Empire lasted a good spell; lots of wog bashing and imposition of mercantilism, taxes and tariffs.”
Once more, yet again, Empires are Empires and “wog bashing and mercantilism” are at the very core of Empires.
But, again, that’s something else altogether: there is no “social contract” between the Emperor and the people that his armies have subjugated.
I am talking about “countries” not about “empires”. And countries DO have a social contract between the government and the governed: the governed accept that the government has a monopoly on violence, and in return the government…. governs on behalf of the governed.
Get what I am saying? Countries can devolve into tyrannies (it’s quite common, from ancient Greece to today), but it isn’t a sustainable model of government because if the Government abuses its monopoly on violence then the governed consider that the “social contract” has been broken and, therefore, they are under no obligation to accept that there should be a monopoly on violence.
The result is usually (indeed, nearly invariably) the otherthrow of that tyranny by means of violence.
YR,
Oh you’re talking “countries”, not “empires”.
Countries (your definition) are doomed. They all go belly up in short time because it is a failed experimental model. Empire is the natural success model.
Eric: “Countries (your definition) are doomed. They all go belly up in short time because it is a failed experimental model.”
China enters the chat room….
YR,
You might have noticed that China has been going down the empire route (see belt/road, operations as far flung as Africa, South and Central America). They are also a dictatorship. So not a “country” by your definition.
Yeah, Right,
Dear China, we would like you to pay your Imperial Government issued bonds. Thank you, Donald J. Trump.
https://scholarship.law.unc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2113&context=ncilj
I know that people here think that I am pedantic, but posts like yours confirm why it is always important to choose words carefully.
Because, honestly, in that last post you are using words like an incontinent man uses his bowel-movements: indescribable stuff spaying all over the place.
So here’s a useful primer for you:
There are “countries”, and they are A Thing.
Each country has a “ruling regime” (unless it is a failed state) which is, again, Its Own Thing.
And then there is “government”, which is a subset of the “regime” (the part that actually, you know, governs).
Now, with that all behind us……
I keep talking about the “government”, which is the part of the whole that has a “social contract” with the “governed”.
But you, Eric, you are all over the shop.
Witness….
Eric: “You might have noticed that China has been going down the empire route (see belt/road, operations as far flung as Africa, South and Central America).”
So sorry, but that’s not actually the definition of an “Empire”. It is “trade”. They are not the same thing.
Eric: “They are also a dictatorship. So not a “country” by your definition”
A dictatorship is a “regime”, Eric. It is not a “country”, yet you just called it one.
Black Window understood this way better than you, and she’s not even a real person: “Regimes rise and fall everyday. I’m Russian, I’m used to that.”
Words as loose bowel movements.
Not a good look, if I’m being honest.
Fred, so you spend your spare time reading the esoteric word-salad of academic lawyers?
Who knew? I certainly didn’t.
Good for you.
I see that Plambeck was a managing director at Citigroup.
I knew a few highfliers from Citigroup back in the day. They were, to a man, a bunch of dim bulbs.
Still, all very rich, which is nice.
YR,
Sorry, I don’t know Mandarin so I can’t understand all the nuances of your thinking and understanding of the English language.
You will have to detail your understanding of “empire” and then explain how belt & road is not empire and, rather, merely, trade.
Sure, Eric, glad to help.
Empires are based around a coercive and extractive model: the center conquers the periphery, and then extracts its resources to send back to the capital.
The capital then makes… things…. out of those resources which it can then sell back to the periphery (its own captive market, obviously) and/or as exports.
The center gets stronger, the periphery is slowly drained, but who cares because – in your colorful language – that’s just “wog bashing” so who cares.
It’s a reasonably stable model while the Empire is expanding, but eventually Empires grow old and tired and the center is no longer able to keep the periphery quiet and the Empire breaks up.
Belt and Road is none of that.
For one thing, nobody MAKES the periphery enter into that agreement, and nobody STOPS them from leaving if they change their mind.
So it’s not coercive.
Also, the model used by Belt and Road involves improving the infrastructure of its periphery so that goods from the center (China, obviously) can flow through those roads to get to market.
So it’s not extractive either.
In fact it looks nothing at all like an Empire, any more than the ancient Silk Road from which it gained its inspiration.
If I were to come up with an analogy to describe Belt and Road I’d say that the only recent one (though this is a stretch) would be the USA’s Marshall Plan in the late 1940s.
Though the Belt and Road is vastly more ambitious than that, but it’s similar enough to be illustrative.
YR,
I’ll give you Chicoms credit for thorough indoctrination, intense focus and singular purpose.
However, it’s all BS. You guys (China) are not happy developers making the wogs better off. You employ economic coercion and have no problem with slave labor. You come in smiling, make deals with the right corrupt people, slip a noose around the neck economies and rape them once the noose in place; threatening to kick the stool out from under their feet if they protest.
I’ve dealt with your type, from plants as university professors in the US (all with Chinese military background) to businessmen looking to steal tech and compromise key US players. Your playbook is as mafia-esque as your most disparaging commentary on Trump.
So you worked on the greed of some Americans to move manufacturing to your crappy factories that produce crappy goods (“made in China” is a joke you know). But go ahead and crow about it while you can. Your anthill mentality society has vulnerabilities that can – and will be – exploited too. MAGA is not the USA that you infiltrated and exploited.
Your markets reacted worse to the tariffs than ours did. There’s a reason for that. Smart money did not have much faith in the fallback plan of BRICS and Belt & Road.
Also of note is most other nations (countries, empires, social contracts or whatever the f**k you’re rambling on about) are siding with the US in this global trade war; more lack of faith in bat munching, anthill minded belt & road and BRICS.
Let’s fight. I say we win.
Eric, baby, if you don’t believe me then why not go and see what the White House has to say about this very topic:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/04/cea-chairman-steve-miran-hudson-institute-event-remarks/
He is describing an Empire. The US Empire.
That’s what this Trump Administration believes: the USA gets to dominate the entire world via its military might (for the betterment of those it lords over, as all Empires claim), but because that “White Man’s Burden” is so darn expensive then the rest of the world has to send its money to Washington for the privilege of being lorded-over.
It’s all there, Eric: coercion, expansion, resource extraction.
All of it, and all rolled up into a need five-point plan from extracting resources (money, in this case) from the periphery and sending it to the Capital.
Yet you stand there and insist that it is China that is empire-building!
No, Eric, Miran knows better. It is the USA that is the Empire, and China is simply in the way.
Eric: “Let’s fight. I say we win.”
Steve Miran says otherwise, and he should know.
Read that article of his: the USA is already overextended. He is admitting it, openly admitting it in front of the worthies of the Hudson Institute.
That’s why he is insisting that the rest of the world must pay protection money to Washington.
China is not over-extended. Not in the slightest.
So, no, if it comes to a fight then it won’t be the USA that wins.
Eric, think back to early December 1941, where a mighty military power decided to try it on, only to realize that they had bitten off more than they could chew.
That’s the USA now. Right now. And the funny thing is that the irony is lost on you because you can’t even see it.
YR,
“It’s all there, Eric: coercion, expansion, resource extraction”
Wha wha wha, you’re such a giant crybaby. Always resorting to the devious moralizing and guilting you chicoms have implanted in the minds of US youth who have been unfortunate enough to pay for college educations.
I say good, USA, coerce, expand and extract resources. In fact, increase the pace. The bat munchers are trying to do the same. That’s why they’re all over Africa, South and central America. You lose, ching chong ding dong, etc.
“Steve Marin say…” more blah blah ching chong ding dong. Who the frick is Marin? The ultimate omniscient intelligence of the universe? I think not. Just some prick you like because he confirms your ideology. For every Steve Marin there are a dozen anti-Steve Marins.
I could care less what he says. I say the US defaults on all chicom debt and parks a couple fleets in the Pacific out of chicom coastal missile range, sinks any cargo/fuel heading to bat muncher land. China would be starved and thrown into the economic dark ages in a few months. Stupid thieving little Maoists only exist in something vaguely resembling a modern society because some greed heads + foolish dreamers in the US have allowed them to. That allowing can come to a rapid end any time we wish it to. Burns you, doesn’t it?
Not every American is the midwit virtue posturing fool or greedy sellout that you want them to be. Again, I say, let’s fight. It’s time. I bet your side backs down before it really gets heavy. If not, we will finish it strong. Either way, the US wins because anthill minded wet market shopper culture is, ultimately, inferior to American culture, even with the rot your types intentionally have inflicted on it.
Deal with it, but please stop whining.
Eric: “Wha wha wha, you’re such a giant crybaby. Always resorting to the devious moralizing and guilting”
[chortle]
There is no moralizing – devious or otherwise – in what I wrote. No guilt-tripping of anyone.
That you think there was reveals much more about you than it does about me.
Look, Eric, Miran got up and gave a speech to a bunch of VIPs at the Hudson Institute.
I didn’t make him do it, any more than you made him do that. And I certainly didn’t choose his subject matter, any more than you did.
He did, and he said what he said, and I stand my my post as being an accurate and concise summarization of what he said.
You and everyone else can read Miran’s speech and compare what he said with my summation of what he said.
Go ahead, everyone, I double-dog-dare you to.
Because I am ABSOLUTELY, 100% CORRECT in pointing out that what Miran said was a concise argument that the USA is a global empire and everyone else has to pay a tribune to Washington.
There is no “moralizing” in that, no “guilt-tripping” anyone. Miran said what he said, and I pointed out that what he said was a description of Empire.
Whether America As Empire is a bad thing or a good thing (Miran claims that it is the latter) is for you to decide, but leave me out of that discussion because, frankly, I couldn’t care less.
Eric: “I say good, USA, coerce, expand and extract resources. In fact, increase the pace.”
The USA is, indeed, increasing the pace. They have obviously decided that the time has come to eat their vassals because that’s the only way to sustain themselves.
That is exactly why those vassals are running around with their hair on fire.
Eric: “The bat munchers are trying to do the same.”
And that statement is demonstrably untrue, and that you believe otherwise reflects very poorly on both your analytic skills and your judgement.
Eric: ….”you chicoms have”….
Look, give it a rest. I’ve ignored this nonsense of yours, and will do so again, but for now I’m just going to say this:
I have opinions on many issues, but there are some things that I know with a certainty.
There are, indeed, things I know infinitely more about that you.
One of the things I know is that I am Whiter Than White. As anglo as they come.
Cornish ancestry, in fact, though I was born and bred in South Australia, and I actually popped into this world at a time when Australia was not only Whiter Than White but that this state of affairs was mandated through Federal legislation.
So give it a rest, dude, because I would bet dollars to donuts that I am about as close to being a Chinaman as you are.
I seldom agree with Sen. Rand Paul, but he has a point. The last time this kind of foolishness was tried, it took 60 years for the GOP to return to power. A lot of GOP elected officials will eventually be asked what they did to avoid what will eventually happen after the economic system has been broken. What was done in the 1930’s eventually led to the Great Depression and WWII. It is already obvious that the current crew, from the top down is incompetent and ignorant. The big question eventually will be: Why did you not know what I and many others did?
Lars,
The big question is why all the other presidents allowed all those other countries to sanction the hell out of us and then did nothing. The second question is why all those sanctions didn’t destroy the economies of the countries that imposed them on the US and thus bring about the 1930s outflow of capital from the US. Let’s not bother to ask about all the war reparations, with a repayment requirement in gold, imposed on the former Imperial Germany and what impact that might have had in the preceding couple of decades before the ‘great depression’. Don’t think to ask about how large the agricultural sector was or the percentage of the economy that was export based then versus now, either.
Fred,
Americans want that foreign stuff. They want more of it and they want it cheap. We are, after all, the world’s premier consumers. We’re number one!
TTG,
Da virtue signallers love the cheap stuff made with slave labor.
Fred,
Like MAGA hats and Trump bibles?
TTG,
Nike, sports stuff of various kinds, e-bikes, golf carts, big screen TVs, and Disney’s wokest items.
Fred –
Don’t forget Trump’s Never Surrender golden sneakers also made by slave labor: https://gettrumpsneakers.com/?srsltid=AfmBOopQct0gZOMMwWyjD7TnI2_YnzFaHp0TppADc8RuUFTdr78Z-nEb
Or his T-47 Commander High-Tops Inauguration Edition: https://gettrumpsneakers.com/products/the-commander-high-top-sneakers-inauguration-edition?variant=50800764059922&gad_source=1
Or his made in China guitars: https://gettrumpguitars.com/
Or his Trump ties, perfume, coins, Trump Bible, his “Save America,” picture book with his alternate version of American history.
All cheap crap, all made or printed overseas. Da Trumpster loves to sell you that cheap stuff much of it made with slave labor. Perhaps he’s a virtue signaler himself.
Leith,
Nike revenue was $51 billion in 2024. But enjoy the TDS posting.
Fred, other countries don’t “sanction the hell out of the USA”.
They may impose tariffs on US-made goods (say, Vietnam) or they may not impose tariffs on US-made goods (e.g. Australia).
It depends.
But “tariffs” aren’t “sanctions”. Those are very different things, and Trump takes great pains to spell out to anyone that wants to listen.
Yeah, Right,
Oh my they tariff the US, for how many decades?
Fred,
In the last few decades all our major trading partners had low tariff rates averaging 2% or so on specific items. Only the smaller and poorer countries have tariff rates around 10% or more. The problem is Americans buy too much stuff from overseas.
I’ve still seen exactly zero evidence that China had ANY tariffs on ANY US-made goods prior to Trump’s big Liberation Day announcement.
Up until Trump’s announcement we had been living in a world of globalization, and “tariffs” and “globalization” are natural enemies in the wild.
Yeah, Right,
I was curious about that myself. Found this article covering tariffs by both the US and China going back to 2018. Chinese tariffs on US goods was 8% on 1.6% of total imports in May 2018 while US tariffs were 3.2% .8% of Chinese goods imported. It looks like earlier that year there were no tariffs. Things started to really go downhill between the two in July 2018.
https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2019/us-china-trade-war-tariffs-date-chart
TTG: “The problem is Americans buy too much stuff from overseas.”
It’s not a “problem”, it is a “feature” of the system.
If your country owns the global reserve currency then your country is obliged to run current account deficits. i.e. your citizens are required to live beyond their means.
That is a “feature” of the system, and it even has a name: The Triffin Paradox.
So, basically, the Chinese have NOT been “ripping off the USA” via tariffs.
They haven’t needed to “protect themselves” from US-made goods because they have always been able to produce those same goods themselves, and cheaper.
So the tariffs that Trump has imposed are purely coercive in nature: he is attempting to correct the chronic current account deficit the USA has with China by threatening them with tariffs unless they agree to buy more American-made stuff.
Even though the Chinese don’t want US-made stuff and don’t need US-made stuff.
No wonder they are pissed off with him.
What are “regulations”. Oh wait, that’s different…..
Yeah, Fred, “regulations” are different to “tariffs”.
And the Chinese government (or is it regime? A social contract? A dictatorship?) also subsidizes certain key industries so they can out bid US producers of the same goods.
Eric, the USA itself “subsidized” the Chinese manufacturing industries when they outsourced their own in the 1980s.
And, again, you might want to look at the meaning of the words that you use, because much of what Americans claim to be “subsidizes certain key industries” turns out to be nothing more than Beijing putting in the hard yards to build the supply chains and infrastructure that are necessary to feed those “key industries”.
Hate to break it to the American navel-gazers out there, but in much of the world outside of the USA “building infrastructure” is something that governments are supposed to be doing.
Here ya’ go, Eric, because I know that you have decided to simply dismiss out of hand anything that I tell you.
https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1910296288610189704?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1910296288610189704%7Ctwgr%5Eec4e47c59a592489d68e9517e62111c89eb88a6a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.unz.com%2Fmwhitney%2Ftrump-concocted-the-tariffs-hoax-to-decouple-with-china%2F
That’s a very concise rebuttal of all this talk of “China subsidizes its industries!!!” and “China is ripping us off!!!!”.
And if that is too esoteric for you, a simpler quote from Mike Whitney: “China gives US consumers quality merchandise that requires expensive resources, factories and investment in exchange for green sheets of paper of diminishing value. On which end of that deal would you rather be?”
Thank you for this piece on shrimp. My husband and I spent a year on Kodiak Island in the early 1970s and shrimp was king. You found a great example of how CAREFULLY crafted and targeted tariffs could work to help specific US industries. A scalpel not a chainsaw. Trump’s obsessive need for “BIGLY NEWS”, however, means that the careful governing based on research and deep discussion (often done by those unheralded “lazy” bureaucrats who work for us) will not take place for the next 4 years.
In December 2023, the World Court decided to give water above land shelves to those countries and ruled it was not international water. The renaming of the Gulf of America isn’t renaming the whole Gulf. It is renaming the area above our land shelves as US territory. That ought to provide some food for thought. Allergic reactions possible.
https://www.fedbar.org/blog/defining-the-boundaries-of-extended-continental-shelves-analysis-of-the-icj-judgment-in-nicaragua-v-colombia-2023/
I wonder when the sea destroying Chinese fishing fleet will finally be driven into port? Or sunk.
Fred,
The continental shelf off our gulf coast only extends about halfway to three quarters to the boundary of our EEZ.
Maybe keeping the Chinese fishing fleets out of some South American countries EEZs would be a good use for our Navy and USCG ships. At least let some of our surveillance aircraft give those countries location data on those fleets.
Fred, the Chinese fishing fleet will be “driven into port” a few weeks before Beijing finally decides to stop dicking around and settling the issue of Taiwanese reunification by kinetic means rather than diplomacy.
Britain’s fishing fleet served admirably to pluck BEF soldiers off the beaches of Dunkirk. The Chinese will conclude that their fishing fleet can serve equally well in plonking PLA soldiers onto the beaches of Taiwan.
Yeah, Right,
It is not 1940. The PLA has no need to invade Taiwan as they already control most of the political opposition there.
Oh, I agree that the Mainland doesn’t WANT to invade Taiwan.
They know that time is on their side, and I don’t doubt for a second that they know the exact month when the lines on the graph cross to indicate that the average income on the mainland has overtaken the average income of Mr Joe Average in Taiwan.
At that moment the Taiwanese will be asking themselves the obvious question: “why are we doing this?”
So if the Chinese (both on the mainland and on the island) are left to sort this out then a peaceful reunification of Taiwan is inevitable.
But they aren’t being left to sort this out between themselves: there is an elephant in the room.
That elephant may yet cajole the Taipei government to do something stupid: invite the USA to set up military bases, or even to declare independence. Whatever.
If any of those things happen then Beijing will throw their hands in the air at the stupidity of it all, abandon all attempts at diplomacy, and send in the PLA.
“You guys are crazy, sorry, but we have to put you down”.
The trade war is on.
https://apnews.com/article/china-us-tariffs-trade-trump-b5010acb08114304d8c36267b47eda13
“BEIJING (AP) — China said Tuesday it would “fight to the end” and take countermeasures against the United States to safeguard its own interests after President Donald Trump threatened an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports.”
“If Trump implements his new tariffs on Chinese products, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods would reach a combined 104%”
If Trum implements this 50% tariffs, there is a high probability stock market will crash on Wednesday.
TonyL,
It may indeed crash, but it’s still far above what it was two years ago. The market’s actions today shows it’s little more than betting parlor. What these tariffs are doing to those Americans trying to export goods or rely on importing goods is the real problem even in the near term. It’s total economic disaster for them.
TTG,
“What these tariffs are doing to those Americans trying to export goods or rely on importing goods is the real problem even in the near term. It’s total economic disaster for them.”
No doubt, that’s the real problem.
OTOH, stock market is a good indicator for the direction we are heading in term of profit and loss for companies.
TonyL, that AP piece strikes me as being very misleading.
Take this quote from Trump: “If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th,”
A casual reader might assume that Trump is claiming that China has imposed a 34% tariff on US-goods, and therefore HIS tariffs are retaliatory in nature to THOSE tariffs. To which that casual reader might think “and fair enough, too”
But I don’t think so.
From the tone I think that Trump is complaining about a 34% disparity in the current account between the USA and China i.e. the Chinese exports to the USA is 34% higher than the US exports to China.
Which no doubt is concerning to Trump, but may have nothing to do with Chinese tariffs that are imposed on US-made goods.
And further down (always a good idea to read to the end of any article) I find this gem: “U.S. total goods trade with China were an estimated $582 billion in 2024, making it the top trader in goods with the U.S. The 2024 deficit with China in goods and services trade was between $263 billion and $295 billion”
Hmmmmm. $582 + $263 = $845billion in Chinese exports to the USA.
And $582 / $845 = .688 which is 68%. And 100%-68% = 32%
So I’m going to suggest that when Trump is complaining about China’s “long term trading abuses” he is simply complaining that China is more successful in selling its stuff to Americans that the USA is at selling its stuff to the Chinese.
Which may have many causes, of which Chinese-imposed tariffs may (or may not) play a significant role. Or no role at all, it is impossible to tell from that article.
Does anyone know if the Chinese impose tariffs on American-made goods?
I assume they do, but I don’t *know* that for a fact, and that AP article leaves me none the wiser.
That’s funny.
Most american brands are made in China.Crescent tools,milwaukee tools almost everything.
Tariffs combined with boosting local industry with cheap labour as has been happening with new immigration is a good way to boost American industry.This has nothing to do with politics and is policy developed years ago.Blaming Trump is a waste of time.Its just business.
I write a good poem about travelators if anyone is interested
mcohen – yes please!
“Tariffs combined with boosting local industry with cheap labour as has been happening with new immigration is a good way to boost American industry.”
Trump’s tariff policy is not intended to do any of those things. It is much cruder than that.
He wants to “boost American industry” by using the threat of tariffs to boost USA exports, he doesn’t want to use tariffs to suppress foreign imports.
And the way to use tariffs to boost USA exports is to use the threat of those tariffs to extort a trade concession from those other countries.
The end result is that those other countries have to buy more US-made goods even though it makes no economic or business sense to do that when almost everyone else can make it cheaper than the USA can.
The economics of it doesn’t matter when you are victim of extortion. The “business model” is irrelevant when there is a stand-over merchant looming over you.
“Its just business.”
As every Mafia Don always says when they run an extortion racket: I’ll make him an offer he can’t refuse.
I just want to elaborate on my previous post, since on a re-read I can see that it could be misunderstood.
That AP article is deliberately attempting to mislead its readers.
This bit
“U.S. total goods trade with China were an estimated $582 billion in 2024, making it the top trader in goods with the U.S. The 2024 deficit with China in goods and services trade was between $263 billion and $295 billion.”
requires the casual reader to do their own arithmetic to work out that the trade imbalance between the USA and China is around 34% in China’s favor.
They are making it hard because if that were spelt out then a reader would be able to see straight away that this statement: [Trump’s] “separate 34% tariffs announced last week” isn’t a “retaliatory tariff” at all.
It is imposed purely and simply on the basis that the Chinese have been 34% more effective than the Americans in bilateral trading.
As in: Trump’s tariffs weren’t a reaction to China’s tariff policy (again, did China even *have* a tariff policy before last week?), it is an attempt to punish the Chinese for being more successful capitalists than the Americans.
And note this bit of doggerel from Trump: “If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th”
Pardon?
The 34% tariffs that the Chinese just imposed *is* a “retaliatory tariff”, precisely because it *is* imposed in retaliation for Trump’s previously announced 34% tariffs.
And by way of contrast his 34% tariff wasn’t a “retaliatory tariff” at all: it was imposed to force a trade concession from the Chinese.
You wouldn’t know that if you just glanced through that AP article.
I’m sure some of you regard this as nit-picking, but it isn’t: if articles like this don’t correctly spell out the motivations of the participants in this drama then other actors (investors, say, or other foreign governments) may end up making bad decisions on the basis of an incorrect understanding of what is going on.
Yeah, Right,
“The 34% tariffs that the Chinese just imposed *is* a “retaliatory tariff”, precisely because it *is* imposed in retaliation for Trump’s previously announced 34% tariffs.”
“It is imposed purely and simply on the basis that the Chinese have been 34% more effective than the Americans in bilateral trading”
Agree to all of the above.
IMO, there is no such thing as unbalanced trade. In the case of other developing countries, it’s simply economic that most people there cannot afford expensive US products.
“In the case of other developing countries, it’s simply economic that most people there cannot afford expensive US products.”
At its core, this is why Trump is doing what he is doing.
He can’t sell more American-made stuff to (say) Vietnam or China because all the stuff that the USA makes is too expensive for the Vietnamese or Chinese. They’ll just continue to buy from elsewhere.
But Trump isn’t using an economic argument to achieve that goal. He is using a coercive argument via those tariffs.
As in: he is using the threat of tariffs to extort a trade concession from the Vietnamese or the Chinese.
It goes like this:
Trump: Buy more of my overpriced stuff!
Vietnam: No, it’s too expensive.
Trump: Buy it or else.
Vietnam: Or else what?
Trump: I’ll slap a 70% tariff on YOUR cheap stuff.
Vietnam: Grrrr. OK, what do you want me to buy?
That’s extortion. It is so obviously extortionate that the MSM have to fold themselves into a knot to avoid discussing that Trump is acting like a Mafia Don.
A little late but:
““U.S. total goods trade with China were an estimated $582 billion in 2024, making it the top trader in goods with the U.S. The 2024 deficit with China in goods and services trade was between $263 billion and $295 billion.”
requires the casual reader to do their own arithmetic to work out that the trade imbalance between the USA and China is around 34% in China’s favor.”
So a number is provided for “total goods trade” but no number for “total services trade”, so no basis for evaluating a deficit in “goods and services trade”.
TonyL,
China has been waging a trade war against the US for decades.
Noooooo, they haven’t.
They’ve need making stuff cheaper than the USA can make that same stuff, and they have been willing to sell that stuff to anyone who is willing to pay a fair price for it.
That the USA has been living way, way beyond its means by importing way more stuff from overseas than it exports its own stuff to foreign countries is not CHINA’s fault.
Because this may have escaped your notice (it hasn’t escaped Trump’s) but the USA has been running a current account deficit with pretty much everyone, and for decades.
Not just run a current account deficit with China, but run a current account deficit with e.v.e.r.y.o.n.e.
Even Heard Island, apparently, and Heard Island is an uninhabited island in the most god-forsaken place imaginable.
That’s not anyone else’s fault but the USA’s own sense of entitlement and their own unbridled hunger for a level of consumption that the USA can’t really afford.
Yeah, Right,
Factor price equalization is a great idea for making cheap stuff, including cheap labor. Impoverishing Americans so that China can increase their own people’s standard of living is not our obligation.
Fred,
Actually, at one time the geniuses at CIA and State thought that by enriching China at the expense of US citizens would make Americans out of Chinese. And then the US could flip the script and exploit the newly minted inscrutable capitalists.
Who would have guessed that the Han would always put the Han first?
No, Fred, it was not “our obligation”, but it was “our choice”.
And your betters chose it.
You are looking down the wrong end of the telescope as you are trying to make sense of all this.
Fred: “China has been waging a trade war against the US for decades.”
I’m hardly a fan of the CCP but I wonder… who held the gun to the American capitalist’s heads decades ago? Who forced the capitalists to industrialize China? Who said, “We want to move factories to China. They have low wages and a growing population. We just have to share our tech.” Did Winnie do this from his cave office long ago?
I hear Argentina could be next. They also have low wages compared to us and a growing, educated population. That libertarian president is going to turn on us poor, innocent Americans. No one can be trusted.
It’s About time for the Fleet
They started this Action when Biden was President
I Tracked it then
Jim
TTG: “I’m still in a quandary about the desired end state of trump’s massive tariffs.”
I have no doubt what Trump wants these tariffs to achieve: he wants to correct the current account of the USA.
Currently the USA runs chronic current account deficits i.e. the USA spends more dollars on imports than it gains foreign-held dollars on its exports.
(the net result is that the main export of the USA is…. dollars)
He wants that to change so that the USA consistently runs current account surpluses i.e. he wants the value of US exports to exceed the dollars spent on imports.
(the net result being the repatriation of foreign-held dollars back into the USA)
So how does these “Trump tariffs” achieve that aim?
By using them as a threat that Trump can hold over everyone else’s head.
Or, put another way: Trump is acting like a Mafia Don by running an extortion racket.
“Nice country ya’ got here. Real nice. Be a real shame if some tariffs were to happen to it”.
If I am right then Trump really couldn’t care less HOW the current trade imbalanced happened: it could be heavy tariffs on US goods, sure, but it doesn’t have to be.
Trump won’t care – all he will care about is that there IS a trade imbalance, and that’s unacceptable to him.
So negotiating zero-zero tariffs may get him what he wants, but it may not, it depends on the trade in question.
But if he can extort a trade concession from that other country then that is CERTAIN to get him what he wants, and so I think that’s what he will really be interested in.
In the case of Argentina, what Trump really wants is for Milei to agree to buy more stuff from the USA. Doesn’t have to be shrimp (after all, the USA hardly has a “shrimp industry” any more), it could be anything.
Trump won’t care. What he will care about is that the Argentinians buy more… stuff… from the USA, because that immediately corrects the current account deficit that the USA has with Argentina.
NOTE: we’ve seen this movie before in Trump’s first term with his much-ballyhooed “trade war with China”. Trump accused China of unfair trade practices (probably true, but irrelevant) and threatened to slap tariffs on Chinese goods coming into the USA.
Xi knows a Mafia Don when he sees one. He knows what an “extortion racket” is.
So he looked around to see if there is something – anything, didn’t matter what – that China could import from the USA.
He looked, and he looked, and he looked, and he eventually found something: Soy Beans.
That the Chinese could get their Soy Beans cheaper and more easily from other countries was irrelevant. Xi needed to buy SOMETHING from the USA to mollify Trump.
So, OK, Soy Beans, we feed those to our pigs. How’s about we buy Soy Beans from you, Donald?
Trump was ecstatic. That’s a multi-billion-dollar correction in the current account, which is all he was looking for.
So Xi allowed himself to be extorted to the tune of (IIRC) around $6billion a year, and in return Trump claimed victory in his “trade war” and walked back his threat of tariffs.
Milei would be well advised to take a leaf out of Xi’s book and find something – anything, doesn’t matter what – that he can offer to buy from the USA.
Because if he does that – if he bows to Trump’s extortion – then good things will come Milei’s way.
But if he doesn’t then he’s going to find that this zero-zero tariff agreement isn’t going to be the end of it.
YR,
The tariffs can be avoided by manufacturing in the US; meaning a foreign owned company can set up shop in the US and avoid tariffs. Trump is trying to return manufacturing jobs to the US. That should be obvious.
Now you can argue, as you do, that other countries are “smarter” and “better at capitalism” than the US, but that just shows that you 1. don’t understand that value is based on quality as much as on price and 2. That you are in favor of low wages, poor safety conditions and, basically, abseils and exploitation of workers.
Eric: “The tariffs can be avoided by manufacturing in the US; meaning a foreign owned company can set up shop in the US and avoid tariffs.”
Look, nobody – but nobody – is going to risk their investment money by building new factories in the USA unless/until they are absolutely, positively 100% certain that these tariffs are here to stay.
If there is any hint – any hint at all – that these tariffs are not going to survive past Trump’s presidency then they won’t risk that investment, precisely because of the risk that by the time those factories are operational then the very factor that would make them profitable has disappeared in a puff of smoke.
Nobody is going to risk that.
And….. Trump’s “negotiations” with Vietnam and the other 50 unnamed countries is not a good sign. Not a good sign at all.
I’m sorry, but you are wrong. Trump isn’t imposing these tariffs under some economic theory that protectionism will boost investment in local production.
He’s not that niaive.
What he is doing with these tariffs is using them as a threat to extort a trade concession from these countries: buy more of my stuff or I’ll screw you with my tariffs.
That shows IMMEDIATE results, and it doesn’t require any retooling or investment splurges inside the USA.
None of that. It requires only that he capture this market, and then tell his Captains of Industry to jack up their prices for the stuff they export because “I’ve made the Vietnamese an offer they can’t refuse”.
I don’t know where you are getting your ideas from, but whoever it is is a hopeless romantic and a very, very gullible human being.
YR,
Sure, the tariffs could be rescinded if a democrat – or, I suppose, possibly, a Republican – in bed with China is elected.
However, Trump intends to lead a successful revolution in US politics. He intends for his policies to become the accepted norm. So he sees his tariff policies, with some massaging, to be around long term.
How many years of aggressive tariff policy (+ complementary policies) would it take for foreign companies to begin manufacturing in the US? eight to ten.
The “uncertainty” that you note is a double edge sword. The possibility of longer term tariffs also creates uncertainty for foreign producers and the one way to alleviate the uncertainty is to avoid tariffs by moving operations to the US.
Remember, Biden kept a lot of Trump first term tariffs and complimenting policy in place.
You are too hung up on the morality (as you see it) of the situation; the whole “mafia shakedown” aspect that you perceive and that disturbs your inner social justice warrior.
Eric: “Sure, the tariffs could be rescinded if a democrat ”
Just today Trump did a backflip on the tariff levels across the entire world.
You can’t deny that: he just did the most amazing backflip, and no doubt before those 90 days are up he’s going to flip the script again.
And again. And again.
NOBODY with any sense is going to make big-money investments in new factories because of a business case that says “The tariffs will make them profitable”.
They simply won’t do that, because the CEO is certain to ask this oh-so-important question: Which tariffs, sonny? Yesterday’s tariffs? Or today’s tariffs? Or whatever the tariffs are going to be in 90 days”.
Trump and Bessent are creating uncertainty, and “uncertainty” and “investment” are natural enemies in the wild.
Eric: “You are too hung up on the morality (as you see it) of the situation; the whole “mafia shakedown” aspect that you perceive and that disturbs your inner social justice warrior”
You are completely wrong on that.
I’m pointing out that what Trump is attempting is most easily explained as an extortion racket.
I do that NOT because it offends my sense of social justice (it doesn’t), but because I see that everyone else is drinking the Kool Aid.
They really think that Trump is doing all these things because he wants other countries to lower their tariffs i.e. they really think these are “reciprocal tariffs”
He does not, and these are not.
He knows that he can’t grow US exports by way of “free trade” because US-made goods are uncompetitive even if all tariffs were removed.
So he isn’t even trying.
He is attempting something else entirely: to extort trade concessions from every other country.
As in: he is attempting to force countries to buy uncompetitive stuff that they neither want nor need, and he is using the threat of tariffs to do that.
Good for him. It’s worth a try, I suppose.
But everyone should understand what it is that he is actually, really trying to do.
Because I look at comments like yours and so many others on this site and – no offense, Eric – I think to myself: they’ve got no f**king idea.
YR,
You have been stating the obvious to some extent and I find your point, that you keep hammering, simple, shallow, non-informative and boring. Of course Trump is beating up on other countries. If you want to say that is mafia like extortion, you’re welcome to think that way. I think it’s silly derogatory moralizing. A country’s leader should always do what is best for his country. The world of men and countries is not some big hippy party with peace, everyone dancing to groovy music and loving cooperation. There is too much, “we gotta return to the Garden of Eden thinking” here. Peace and fairness through strength is the only and best possibility – and strength must be displayed from time to time.
China retaliated against the tariffs. They want to fight. So Trump paused the tariffs on everyone except China. The other countries, like the EU, came crawling to Trump begging for mercy. Trump gave them a little mercy today. Neither you nor I know what deals were made in exchange for mercy. You are guessing what it’s all about, though proclaiming yourself to be absolutely correct and you say most everyone else is wrong.
Anyhow, now most countries are aligning against China – and China was always the biggest target. Trump has been clear about that since 2016. Chalk up a point for Trump. China may find itself in big economic trouble if Trump aligns much of the globe against it. We shall see.
But what I really want to point out to you is that actions can be designed to accomplish more than one objective. One objective could be what you say, obvious as it is – and it can simultaneously be about what I say and a few other things. The Trump admin probably figures some countries will respond in favorable manner 1, others in favorable manner 2, others in favorable manner 3, etc. A country or two may respond unfavorably and then contingency plans to deal with them go into effect. That is the way adults plan their courses of action.
Now you may want to say that Trump is not an adult and neither are any of the people that work for him, but then I’d just write you off as just another a non-adult, MSM, democrat, zombie for expressing that opinion.
Eric: “A country’s leader should always do what is best for his country”
Agreed. A masterly statement of the obvious.
Eric: “The world of men and countries is not some big hippy party with peace, everyone dancing to groovy music and loving cooperation.”
See above.
Eric:” There is too much, “we gotta return to the Garden of Eden thinking” here. ”
See above.
Eric: “You are guessing what it’s all about, though proclaiming yourself to be absolutely correct and you say most everyone else is wrong.”
I am a scientist by trade. I was taught that a theory should produce a hypothesis, and that should result in predictions that can be put to the test.
So, a prediction: If I am right then these tariffs are going to be a moveable feast. They can be – indeed, need to be – moved up and down, left and right, etc., in any way that will produce what Trump wants, which is trade concessions that enable US industries to sell goods and services to countries that don’t actually want them.
Here’s another prediction: If I am wrong and these tariffs are intended to protect US industries from competition in the US domestic market then they are Here To Stay and most definitely are Not Up For Negotiations.
They are what they are, and they’ll stay that way until there is a resurgence in US manufacturing.
Correct?
And I’m going to say that based on what we have all seen and heard in the last week my hypothesis is looking pretty darn solid.
Yours, to the extent that I understand them, well, them not so much.
Eric: “Now you may want to say that Trump is not an adult and neither are any of the people that work for him, but then I’d just write you off as just another a non-adult, MSM, democrat, zombie for expressing that opinion.”
That is a mighty fine straw-man you’ve erected there, Eric. And you put it up all by yourself? Cool.
But, so sorry, I’m over *here*
I’m not actually over *there* with you and your straw-stuffed best-buddy.
TTG: “Is it to make trillions and trillions of dollars in tariffs? ”
Answer: No. Trump wouldn’t say “no” to $Trillions from tariffs, but that’s not why he is doing it. He is doing it to extort a trade concession from the countries who will be hurt by his tariffs.
TTG: “Is it to force other nations to adopt zero tariff policies?”
Again, Trump won’t say “no” to that, but that isn’t the reason why he has imposed these tariffs.
TTG: “Or is it to protect and rebuild our industries?”
I think there is considerable truth to that, and Trump would certainly crow about it if that were to happen. But I think that is the more minor aim of this tariff policy.
The major aim is to extort a trade concession from other countries, since that QUICKLY addresses the current account imbalance that the USA is suffering from. Inducing an uptick in USA-based economic activity via protectionism is the SLOW way to address that imbalance.
Trump would be very happy for both to happen, but for now it is the former that will reap the quick wins, so he’ll aim for them first.
TTG: “He said the tariffs are here to stay and that this will bring our factories back. ”
Now you are cooking. He HAS to say that if he wants US industrialists to invest in increased production capability, because no Captain of Industry is going to invest $billions in new factories if they think that tariffs could be removed tomorrow.
Factories are a long-term investment, and so those industrialists will crave about all else some sense of certainty regarding the permanence (or otherwise) of these Trump Tariffs.
TTG: “And does Lutnick and Trump expect the rest of the world to adopt our voracious appetite to consume or do they expect us to curb our consumerism?”
Tiffin’s Paradox. It’s a thing, and it is the explanation for the schizoid nature of Trump’s tariff policy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma
The $US as the global reserve currency actually demands that the USA has an insatiable appetite for consumerism, because it is that current account deficit (the USA imports more than it exports) that is required for the dollar to retain its global reserve status.
This allows the USA to “spend beyond its means” because that current account deficit is how the Fed “exports” dollars to other countries – countries that need to acquire dollars for their foreign exchange reserves.
That also allows the USA – alone amongst major economies – to print money like it is going out of style without triggering runaway inflation, precisely because the Fed can “export” those inflationary pressures by “exporting” those dollars via the current account deficit.
So that’s actually the core problem with Trump’s tariff policy: he wants to use that to create current account SURPLUSES, but doing that actually sucks dollars out of foreign reserves and back into the USA.
And – according to the Triffin Paradox – that will kill the $US as the global reserve currency.
As in: Trump can have trade surpluses, or he can have the $US as the global reserve currency, but he can’t have both.
And he shows every indication that he doesn’t realize that he can’t have both.
That’s a serious problem, because it means that he hasn’t fully thought this through.
Its all lined up now Pilgrims
Indeed…Who Advises Donald J Trump The Most..Domestic Policy..
and Foreign Policys..Who Has His Ear..? His Mind.?
Reality..There are SIX B2 Spirits..out on the Runway At Diego Garcia..
Kursk is Finished… North.. Koreas Fight To the Death..No Surrender..
You Look at The Big Picture..The Line Up go’s Beyond The American
Economy Markets..COL..Being Destroyed..Because Trump is using
Other Policys. Borders Crack Downs For Chumming
JIM
What impact (if any) will the Chinese sell-off of $50 billion in US Treasury Bonds have on interest rates?
The biggest and most important US export is $$$$$. If that currency supremacy is ended, it will be a disaster for not only the US, but the world. Trump’s economic ideas are about 150 years old and discredited. Even in their new version they are musky.
What Trump and his jellyfish companions fail to consider is that the world of today is seriously interconnected and unraveling that will cause serious problems worldwide, which Trump will be held responsible for.
“The biggest and most important US export is $$$$$.”
Absolutely true. That’s what a current account deficit actually does.
“If that currency supremacy is ended, it will be a disaster for not only the US, but the world. ”
Absolutely true. The $US “currency supremacy” requires that other countries have to stock up on dollars, which means that the Fed is able to – and does – service the USA’s obscene national debt by printing money and then exporting it.
“Trump’s economic ideas are about 150 years old and discredited.”
What is fundamentally wrong with Trump’s tariff policy is that it will bring the USA’s current account into surplus. Which means that the USA will no longer be “exporting $$$”. Which will kill the USA’s “currency supremacy”
When that happens then the Fed is in an impossible situation. The can either continue printing dollars without any means of bleeding off the inflationary pressures that this produces (That’s bad. Very, very bad), or it stops doing that and the USA inevitably defaults on its national debt (That’s bad. Very, very bad).
What strikes me as so bizarre in this entire affair is that nobody in Team Trump appears to be blissfully unaware of that, which suggests to me that they aren’t thinking this through.
YR,
US currency is supported by the stability and supremacy of the US government + the productivity of the US economy; not all the magical stuff you’re imagining. It’s a faith based phenomenon.
What other country is as stable and inspires such faith? Sure the US has become somewhat wayward in the last 25 years, but it is still bigger and more solid than any other country. China wants to step up and take a shot at the title. Good luck to the pangolin and bat munching tech thieves.
And therein lies what all the TDS dopes fail to comprehend. Our way of life is based on the strength of the dollar, our productivity and the worlds belief in our superiority and stability. If we continue to allow our population to be replaced and our resources by third world illegals, if our education system continues to erode, if our morals and ethics continue to decay into satanic weirdness and self-hatred, then one day we will be surpassed by some a-holes, like China. In fact, China and Russia have been behind a lot of the rot that is destroying our country; have been since the 1960s (and earlier). Trump/MAGA seeks to stop all of that and turn it around. Smooth brains, grifters, moral posturing dreamers and enemy agents don’t like that. Many of those types work in the media and Hollywood – and more than a few in Congress.
Eric: “US currency is supported by the stability and supremacy of the US government + the productivity of the US economy”
The phrase you are looking for is “full faith and credit”.
Eric: “Our way of life is based on the strength of the dollar, our productivity and the worlds belief in our superiority and stability.”
The USA has been slowly destroying itself since the 1980s by succumbing to the temptation that comes from having the global reserve currency.
Because that status of the dollar allows the USA to live way, way, way beyond its means precisely because that global reserve currency status allows the USA to both accumulate a massive ($37Trillion!!!!) national debt and to service that debt without causing an inflationary death-spiral.
EVERYTHING hinges on the dollar retaining that status, because the moment the dollar loses that status then its all gone in a puff of smoke.
“the strength of the dollar”? Gone, gone, gone.
“our productivity”? Destroyed by that inflation.
” the worlds belief in our superiority and stability”? Well, need I say more?
This is what I keep hammering, and which you refuse to see: the USA is not a “normal” country because it has the “exorbitant privilege” of having the global reserve currency.
But since the 1980s the USA has been abusing that privilege like a heroin addict with a credit card, and the USA is now trapped: it is $37Trillion in debt and has no way of dealing with that except to use its US Treasury securities to run the biggest Ponzie Scheme the world has ever seen.
And Trump’s tariff scheme is going to bring that all crashing down on your head, because if the USA starts running current account surpluses then this results in $US being sucked out of the global market and repatriated back to the USA.
Because That Is What A Current Account Surplus Is.
And that kills the dollar as the global reserve currency.
And that kills the ability of the Fed to service that debt.
And that either leads to runaway inflation OR it leads to the USA defaulting on its national debt.
Pick one, Eric. Or pick the other, I don’t care.
There’s no way out of this for the USA that doesn’t involve either one or the other, and either one of them will turn your country into a banana republic.
I know you don’t accept that. I know you don’t want to listen.
But, so sorry, there you have it.
Lars,
SOFR has replaced LIBOR and the last of the libor trades expired. Trump’s tariffs were announced just days later. The EU has no collateral to back their currency. They are the ones in deep trouble. The cash machinery of USAID and the rest of the fraud mechanisms that were robbing Americans have been turned off. The era of tariffs on America good, American tariffs bad is over. They aren’t the only ones waking up to a new reality.
Fred,
Exactly. There is no one who can fight or replace the US, except, maybe China. The tariff war is designed to wreck China (good).
If it increases US manufacturing – and it probably will – better yet. If it pays down some of the debt, that is good too. If it causes the EU and others to kiss Trump’s ring, more icing on the cake. Btw, all of the above will help convince Russia and the EU to end the stupid war in Ukraine. These events and goals are not unconnected.
Today, 8 April, is the 3rd anniversary of Putin’s missile strike on the Kramatorsk railway station that “killed 63 civilians (including 9 children) and wounded 150 (including 34 children).” The attack was so deadly because it was done with cluster munitions. The station was a main hub for evacuation of civilians from the war.
I suspect the Chinese are going to call his bluff on 100% tariffs. Prices doubling at Wal Mart et al would almost certainly be the end of Trump and MAGA as we know them.
The Trump administration seems to be confusing trade imbalance with being ripped off. A humorous take on that: https://xkcd.com/3073/
Yes, very funny cartoon, and all the funnier for being a very accurate explanation of Trumpism.
Mark,
They will? What makes you think the Chinese government is more stable than ours?
Well, Fred, I can think of $37Trillion reasons.
Fred, I don’t see stability as a factor. China retaliated with their own tariffs raises, and Trump responded by raising our own on them even further -doubling down.
Today it seems Trump paused the tariffs. Bluff successfully called? No doubt he will spin this as a victory but the Chinese will probably view it as a buff successfully called.
Seems Trump has even lost FOX and Friends on this issue, btw.
https://x.com/Ronxyz00/status/1909923574972105114?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1909923574972105114%7Ctwgr%5E495800fb5edb8c5d4ca4acc66ab2e0e5bb3301c0%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Foutsidethebeltway.com%2Ffox-and-friends-has-fallen%2F
While I agree with him that the off-shoring of US industry is a serious problem to be solved, it must be remembered this was not so much an act of government but an act of consumers wanting lower prices. They are now addicted to those lower prices so the approach to the problem must account for that.
Mark,
What is our balance of trade with china? What market are they going to sell all that crap in and at what price? Why weren’t they doing so already?
Fred: “What market are they going to sell all that crap in and at what price?”
Ahem. They have two alternatives: their own domestic consumer market, and BRICS.
I find it odd indeed that exactly zero MSM outlets have mentioned BRICS since Liberation Day.
Must be an oversight on their part….
Fred: “Why weren’t they doing so already?”
The Beijing government has had a policy of keeping a lid on demand within the Chinese domestic consumer market.
They’ve done that because they can sell that same stuff to Americans, which is better because that not only makes profits for the manufacturer but also builds up the foreign reserves of the country.
But if they are locked out of the US market then they’ll shrug, turn around, and start taking the lid of their own domestic consumer market.
It’s much, much bigger in terms of people, so the stimulation per head of population is not particularly daunting: if the government can boost consumer spending by around $30 per head per month then that will get them back to level pegging.
The One World Order Cash Combine Has Mowed All Currency/Cash Crops
Down..
This is Being Replaced By Every thing That is Cyber..AI Manufactured
Systems Employed and Promoted By Elon..The Afrikaner,,Boldly..
It Will be A System of Scanning Your CHIP IMPLANT,,And Thats The Only
Way You Can Buy or Sell..Deadly Enforced.. Its On Track..And Close..
here has Never Be Any System in History..Like The Current High Bred..
JIM
Amazing Market Manipulations Today,,I Wonder How Many Insider Millions Were made..As Usual..The Real Heavy Weight Ring is on Wall Street..
e Knock Outs..Creat The Lockouts..Except For George Soros..and Other,,Immigrants..Using A
Alias..Like Oh Merrick Garfinkle. Garland..
On the Other Hand Americas Enemys List is Long..Angrier ,,Creating Data.
More Violent..and Nuclear Armed..And NOT Stupid..Even Trump Admits
That
There Are Many Plans To Take America Down.Internal..External..
Covert/Overt..Only A Fool..Cannot See The Momentum..
I Spoke Earlier This eek About Elon Musk..All His Ideas..All His Talking Points.. Every One of Them Analyzed Over and Over By The Communist
Party Of Chinas Many Analyst,,With and Without AI,. And Many Scenarios Are Developed…Including Using Chip Implants..and War Planning..
I Believe It May Be they are The Ones Who Control Most World Commodity’s
and Isolate The United States..By Many Means Methods and Actions
After The IDF Takes Out Iran,, iving Both Russia and China Even
More Miliary and Economic And Logistic Power
JIM
Jim –
You are right about the market manipulations. Some White House insiders got a 20 minute headstart buying up stock before Trump made the announcement.
Jim –
There is a Bill stalled in Congress to to *finally* ban Members of Congress from trading stocks. It’s bi-partisan, the bipartisan T.R.U.S.T. Act cosponsored by Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) and Seth Magaziner (D-RI). They should also ban members of the White House and their families & friends from trades.
Conoco OIL has gone DOWN $25 Dollars..In The Past Week…
Good for Trump. The US economy was rapidly becoming like the British economy’s been for so long. A grotesque parody of an economy. Over the last couple of decades I’ve watched the once fabulous German economy following us in the UK down that road and am so glad that at least one country in the West isn’t going to follow suit.
Wonder it it’ll work. Nice for the Americans if it does.
Bringing manufacturing back to the US is a red herring. Americans will not pay $30 for something manufactured in the US when they can pay $5 for the same exact item manufactured in Vietnam or India. The US cannot compete with nations where the average daily wage for a worker is $5. We can manufacture, but to even think about manufacturing low end items is just a fools errand. Trump and his lot are stuck in 1950s realities and not in real time.
You dont see the Germans fighting to manufacture polymer picture frames for $10. Germany is a manufacturing powerhouse. They figured out a long time ago that there is no future in advanced, first world nations, building cheap, throw away items. The future for nations like the US is building high end, very technologically advanced items. You build these items and you build the best. Americans buy foreign cars because in general they are cheaper than US made cars and they are built better and last longer.
I would be 100% behind Trump if he wasnt wanting to dive to the bottom and build disposable junk at home. If his mantra was that we will be the most technologically advanced nation in the would, if you want the most cutting edge items made with a quality that no one else in the world can give you, you buy American. If he decided to push the American educational system so we can actually produce enough engineers to design and build great stuff. American k-12 schools do not put out enough well educated students to go through higher education and become engineers of various varieties.
This is a reason why the US imports tens of thousands of engineers and scientists from abroad every year. Why is Trump and the GOP not talking about these imports? If Trump pledged to create a top level k-12 educational system I would support him. If he pledged to create more technical and engineering universities I would support him.
A real national security issue is bringing in engineers and scientists from around the globe and putting them to work on the most sensitive items because we, as Americans, cannot produce enough of our own engineers and scientists because of the crap nature of our k-12 education system.
I spent aa couple of years hiring engineers and scientists. A goof 50%+ hired came from outside of the US from countries that have educational systems that put out students that can handle the math needed to be engineers and scientists. The majority being from Asia and the Middle East. The real issue in the US is what we are not educating our children properly. The real trade balance is the fact that we are FORCED to import so many workers because our school system in the US cannot manufacture enough engineers and scientists. This is the real trade balance issue that needs to be addressed.
Stefan,
You are correct in most of what you say above. Spot on re; producing a well educated population with emphasis on learning what matters to be a productive citizen; like STEM.
Unfortunately, math has been deemed racist and we are supposedly a better society when college students rack up tens of $thousands in debt learning about how white people are bad colonizers and heroic men in dresses can have babies.
We may not be able to manufacture diddly, but we sure are woke.
Two points I disagree on;
1. Trump doesn’t want to produce the same widget as currently produced overseas in sweatshops for a lower price. He wants to produce a higher quality substitute in the US. I used to buy coffee makers made in China. The pieces of garbage would work for three or four months (tops) and then totally fail. I now buy higher end US made coffee machines. They work for years. The cheap Chicom junk ended up costing me more, via multiple replacements, than the US made.
2. Even with a crackerjack education system, not everyone can be a high tech worker. The aptitude just isn’t there in a significant portion of the population. I recall that, during the Clinton years, the Clintons pretty much tacitly agreed that there would be a “sucking sound”, giant or otherwise, of US manufacturing jobs leaving the country. They offered the same as you; everyone would become high tech workers! even unemployed coal miners. I thought that an asinine forlorn hope then and still do. It didn’t happen, won’t happen and can’t happen. That doesn’t mean we should re-focus our education system and create high tech jobs, just that there will always be a need for low tech as well.
It has nothing to do with math being racist, that is pure hubris. The fact of the matter is that most k-12 schools do not emphasize math nor does our society value math. Math doesnt come easy, but in other societies it is pushed heavy and hard from VERY early. Plain and simple our society does NOT value math and the very hard work it takes to master it. This isnt a Dem/Republican thing, a woke/unwoke thing, it is a basic fact that impacts everyone the same. Taking a history class or an english class is much easier than taking an advanced physics class, differential equations class. 95% of students, regardless of political afflation or background will take the easier courses and degrees.
It is a societal change that is needed, not anything to do with political ideology. You look at Indian, Middle Eastern, African/Asian societies they value engineers and scientists on the national level. Engineers, doctors and scientists are the rock stars in these societies. Education is truly valued in these societies. I dont know if you have ever been in a class room in the Middle East or other places in the world, but teachers and the education system is valued in a way it hasnt been in the US for decades. Teacher enters the class, the students get on their feet. They dont call them Mr or Ms, it is Ustadh Khalil, calling them by their formal title. In the US education has become a political battle ground with both sides to blame so the whole educational system in the US has been debased. Our massive trade deficit when it comes to minds is the result.
Higher quality substitute doesnt matter when it is a $5 dollar widget. You can only “high tech” it and change it so much. Americans still arent going to pay $30 for a high tech plastic piece when they can get a slightly inferior one for $5. We CANNOT compete on low tech items and it is stupid to even sttempt it. Trump doesnt see this. If he did he would specifically target high tech, highly engineered products for tariffs. These are the items we can and should want to build. Leave building plastic picture frames to the countries that can pay their workers $5 a day.
Not every can be a high tech workers. Being German born myself, I am in favour of the German system where your grades and your natural inclination decide whether you go to Uni or an apprenticeship and trade school. I have sat in university classes where the work was dumbed down to suit people who should have not been there. The people probably could have ran a machine or rebuilt a tranmission with the best of them but someone along the way told them they only way to go was university. So they dumb down the university classes impacting the quality of education for those that actually belong there, meanwhile some factory somewhere is missing out on a high class machine worker. US universities should be highly selective and they should be FREE! How many engineers, scientists, doctors out there never made it because they couldnt pay for school and refused to be saddled with debt for decades? Make university free for those who can compete and gain entry. Push apprenticeship programs and push high tech trade schools. Lets build the best of the best. Lets design the best of the best.
We arent going to go anywhere trying to build better quality widgets than the Chinese can.
Stefan…
I Agree Every thing You Said..And Its Correct .I Like the German school System
And Its Strong Because it Incorporates Choices of Trade Schools To High School
Students..Everything..Like They Used to do When I was In High School
in The 1950s..Only to Be Destroyed By Democrats During Our Culture Revolution ate 1960s Onward..
WE should Produce the Best Engineers..The Best Scientists,,The Best of Everthing…But..Unlike The Disclipined Germans,, And Asian Cultures..American Politicians..and Lobbyists…Sold The United States
Out..
I Have been to Germany..Even With The Current Mind Set ..The Germans are Disclipined..The Family Unity Remains Intact..And Most of the Youth.
Are Respectful..and Excellent Students..
Thats What ets Germany..Apart rom Europe..
JIM
Sadly, Trump and his brain trust are going after the high tech specialists from abroad as well. He really does want to go b ack to the 1800s….and really has no plan at all for ramping up US manufacturing other than — “They will come back in droves.” THAT is the plan!
Laura,
If only some of the 330,000,000 Americans could taught to be “tech specialists”.
Stefan,
“The real trade balance is the fact that we are FORCED to import so many workers because our school system in the US cannot manufacture enough engineers and scientists.”
A true 5th column style post. The US is not forced to do anything of the kind. The school systems in the US are perfectly capable of educating American citizens to be engineers or ‘scientists’. Those open collegiate level positions are often given to foreign nationals at the behest of university officials seeking full cost tuition and Affirmative Action credits. Cancel all those student visas and it will be very few years before all those positions reverse themselves.
As to Germany, she’s been deindustrializing by leftist choice for some time now. In additional German news AfD is now outpolling CDU.
You clearly dont work in a high tech field nor have you tried to higher high tech workers. The US z-12 does NOT produce enough students who can do the math. Plain and simple. It is a societal issue. We just dont value math, dont value engineers and scientists like other cultures do. In other places they are the rock stars. In the US? It is actors, musicians, football and basketball players.
If you really think the k-12 education system in the US puts out quality students you need to do some research on the state of US schools, rankings internationally, and then get a clue.
Stefan,
I agree with your views on education and the issues now endemic to the US system.
My wife was a public school teacher (In the US); middle school and then grade school for her last couple of years. She was there when the quality of education plummeted. That was in the 1990s. Education was definitely dumbed down so that third world ESL and Blacks could graduate to the next grade. “Social promotion” was the prominent term at the time. Behavior problems (on the part of students) became an increasing distraction for students interested in learning and for teachers – and there was increasingly less that the school administrators would do to quell bad behavior. Curriculum contained a growing amount of social awareness material wherein students were taught about all of the injustices whites allegedly inflicted on everyone else. Minority students began to utilize their growing sense of entitlement to rebel against the program without consequences. This was the beginning of the “woke” era.
There is more to the US education system problem than Americans simply not valuing math, though I do agree that is a factor.
In other news the silver lining is emerging over Trump’s tariffs. I called it. I called it months ago. Trump is crashing oil. Tariffs and a trade war has downward pressure on the price of oil. Compound this with OPECs scheduled production and Trump tenacity to drill while bringing the whole world down around him. He has no more fucks to give. lol Russia is getting hit with surging value in their rouble and falling oil prices. The price is now 25% below their budgeted cost to fund the war. A trade war with a crazy man is going to prolong the price collapse as well. LMAO Prolonged low price cycle is what contributed to the fall of the USSR too. All this Putin cock suckin is nothing more than hot air. Trump is a CON MAN! LMAO!
https://archive.is/zIWPJ
https://archive.is/RQ0c9
Condottiere,
Yes, everyone is ignoring falling oil prices caused by Trump’s policies, as well as the emerging devastating impact on Russia.
An economy is a closed system until something big/revolutionary is introduced (say, like the industrial revolution, fossil fuels and combustion engines, container shipping, computers/internet). Otherwise, it is like a balloon. Squeeze on one end and the other end bulges. The problem with most people with opinions, doomsday predictions and claims of success, is that they only focus on the bulged end or the squeezed end, but not on both and not on the whole balloon.
There is one thing they can call upon to happen and shore up oil prices but I wont mention it here. I think this is why we have a fleet of B-2 stealth bombers that just flew in from Missouri sitting on the tarmac in Diego Garcia for all the satellites to view (and not in the hanger). FAFO.
Condottiere,
Iran – verily, any other Islamic sharia government – cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. Nor can sponsors of international terrorism (see Hamas, Houthis and whatever has infiltrated the US) be allowed to exist. The stupid bastards have been threatening to kill the President of the United States. The B-2s have nothing to do with manipulation of oil prices.
Only whacko clueless liberals will morn the destruction of the Iranian government, not even the majority of Iranians.
No but maybe I do need to mention it since you are too dense to realize. A disruption at the strait can manipulate oil prices. Axis of resistance attacks on gulf oil infrastructure can manipulate oil prices. We already opened up the Red Sea with fresh strikes and cloaked our intentions with a scripted Signal leak talking shit about Europe to a hostile liberal media editor. The world fell for it.
The timing of positioning 1/3 of stealth bomber fleet within striking range is impeccable.
Condottiere,
The effect on oil prices is obvious and needs no mention. US production must be prepared to produce at sufficient levels before the Iranian regime can be destroyed. However, I think that saying oil price manipulation is what it’s all about is well into whacko conspiracy theory land, if that’s what your saying.
Oil prices is what it’s all about. That is Russia’s biggest vulnerability. It’s what dictated his invasions during the Bush, Obama, and Biden administrations. It’s what contributed to the fall of the USSR. Oil.
Now
I have been on this blog since about 2007. Used other handles throughout my 20 year 2x v device awarded infantry career (something you are probably too chickenshit to accomplish) You are the dumbest idiot on here.
When he came out of prison I wondered if Bannon had had the old get up and go knocked back just a little. Nope. Still firing on all cylinders.
‘Europe is no ally’ Steve Bannon on Tariffs, Trump, and Total War
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEBtXFhpwO4&ab_channel=GBNews
If you guys want to get into a gun fight with Russia have at it, is his message to Europe. MAGA has other fish to fry. But it may be the Europoodles are starting to get that message already.
He’s definitely on the side of the shrimp fishermen. Probably, though he doesn’t mention it, contemptuous of the way we sold out our own fishermen a few years back.
Breaking! (Hey, that’s almost as good an opening as “It was a dark and stormy night.”)
Dow up almost 3,000 points, 7.8%
S&P 500 up almost 10%
Nasdaq up 12%
Oil @ $62 a barrel.
I wonder how all those 401ks are doing…. And what the next NPC talking point will be.
Fred,
Yeah Trump just demonstrated that he fully capable of living massive tariffs. Sure he tamed some of the tariff level (temporarily), but levels are higher than they were a couple weeks ago. The point is that Trump has the proven power to go up from here. Now China and rest of the world has been warned.
Eric,
People in $3,000/month NYC apartments with scenic view of building across the street know better than guy who built buildings for a living.
Fred,
Trump’s just caved into the pressure. 90-day pause for other countries is just an excuse for him to buy time and claim victory later.
But China has called his bluff. Trump is waiting by the phone for China to call. But so far nobody did, that must be driving him crazy. Notice that he increased the tariff for China by 21% (from 104% to 125%)? There is no rationale for that 21%. Either the guy is sucker for round number or he is afraid that if he bluffs another 50%, and China will call it again.
Behaving like a Mafia boss, Trump is destroying any credibility we have with other countries, and also destroying businesses in this country.
Not surprisingly, Trump caved to the Wall Street traders. He is still the coward that made up a reason to not go to VietNam, which has caused him to disparage those who did and is still doing it. I am sure the rest of the world is watching this with interest.
Lars –
Caved, yes he definitely kowtowed. It was based on advice from his LGBTQ Secretary of the Treasury after countries targeted with tariffs started dumping treasury bonds. Meanwhile MAGA thinks it’s his art of the deal and everything is hunky-dory.
But the Trump Tariffmageddon ain’t over yet. It’s just a 90 day pause, isn’t it? Has he negotiated with the penguins yet down on McDonalds Island?
Eric, nobody is going to invest in new factories inside the USA unless they can be convinced that Trump’s tariffs are both permanent and predictable.
They won’t risk their money unless they have those assurances, and what you have just posted is exactly the WRONG message for them to hear.
Lars,
China, heavily dependent upon exports to the US, now under significant tariffs. Seventy five other nations immediately came to the bargaining table thereby allowing America to negotiate a better deal.
I sure hope he “caves” that way again. Meanwhile what happened to all those 401ks everyone was mentioning yesterday?
Leith,
Ten year treasure @4.60% on 1/20 now down to 4.28%. What does that save us per year? Two years are at 3.87, what’s that saving us on refinancing the Yellen issued notes?
Fred –
Please name these 75 mythical nations that Trump “claims” came to negotiate with him.
You can’t Fred. It’s all smoke and mirrors, typical Trump tommyrot.
Leith thinks the Chicoms will dump US treasuries (oh so scary!). I hope they do. They will be selling at a loss. The US could even buy them back and enjoy an instant savings/debt reduction. And where is China going to go with its money? I can’t think of anywhere. Buy some Zimbabwe bonds? Build a bigger Pangolin farm? Then the US will just target and destabilize that country – and China loses again.
Ian Bremmer makes a well thought out comment in his blog today:
…The conclusion is inescapable: The president is committed to walling America off from the world in order to reduce bilateral trade deficits dramatically while using tariff revenue to fund his tax cuts and spending plans. As Vice President JD Vance explained, Trump “believes in economic self-sufficiency.”
The White House hopes the tariffs will incentivize consumers to “buy American” and companies to build factories in the United States. But tariffs could only succeed at reshoring manufacturing over the long term, and only by making imported goods and inputs permanently more expensive for US households and producers. And are there really many Americans willing to forgo relatively well-paid, air-conditioned jobs to sew sneakers and t-shirts in garment factories? If not, what’s the point of tariffs against poorer countries like Bangladesh that specialize in low-value-added industries? The same goes for tariffs on countries that export things that the US can’t make more of at home – think coffee beans, tropical fruits, critical minerals, gemstones, and the like.
History is littered with failed import substitution attempts. Broad-based tariffs are likelier to raise prices, reduce product variety, and hurt US businesses than to lead to a “golden age” of American manufacturing. …
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgzQZTzgqhJDVJPtfRtZvllCnhVrM
I agree. No venture capitalist is going to invest his $billions to “build factories in the United States” unless he can be convinced that these tariffs (which, remember, are what makes those factories viable) are going to be permanent and their levels are not going to be subject to any variation based on “negotiations” that Trump may have with other world leaders.
And ….. any venture capitalists who have been listening to the Trump administration since Liberation Day would come away with the understanding that he is expected to sit down at a moveable feast.
He won’t do it.
Al,
Factories will no longer have air conditioning? That’s actually funny. Love the straw man about coffee, fruits (not the lgbrq++ kind) and minerals.
Thank you for pointing out that for decades our “allies” have been tariffing the US to shore up their economies.
You left out all the spending cuts from ending fraudulent and wasteful USAID projects and terminating millions of ineligible people from various government programs.
Interesting solution per Robert McTeer, the former head of the Dallas Fed.
“My solution is to stop keeping foreign trade statistics. We don’t keep records on interstate trade between Texas and California, so we don’t know which state has the deficit and which has the surplus. And we don’t care. But if we kept the statistics, we would know and the deficit state would do something foolish to correct the “problem.”
Hmmmm, isn’t what the long history of conservative Republican “free traders” have wanted?
Here ya’ go, a little something for all of you who are poo-pooing my claim that Trump’s “Tariff policy” is nothing more than an extortion racket on a global scale:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/04/cea-chairman-steve-miran-hudson-institute-event-remarks/
That’s the White House explaining that the aim of these tariffs is to extort money from the rest of the world to bankroll the USA’s incessant desire for Global Hegemony.
I thought – silly me! – that the way Trump intends to do that is by extorting trade concessions for the USA’s otherwise utterly uncompetitive products.
But, no, nothing so subtle.
Steve Miran is much more up-front: Trump intends to extort money from other countries.
Well, it’s certainly “bold”. Or should I say “brash”?
Take a look at this proposal: “Fifth, they could simply write checks to Treasury that help us finance global public goods.”
It doesn’t get any more explicit than that.