“Ukraine Makes Sweeping Advances, Kherson May Fall – Russian Collapse Possible”

The lower Dnipro

“Soldiers from Ukraine’s 128th Mountain Assault Brigade raised the country’s blue and yellow flag in Myrolyubivka, a village between the former front and the Dnipro, according to a video released by the Defense Ministry.

Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine’s interior ministry, posted a photo of Ukrainian soldiers posing with their flag draping a golden statue of an angel in a village he said was Mikhailivka, on the river bank around 20 km beyond the previous front.

Serhiy Khlan, a Kherson regional council member, also listed Osokorivka, Mykhailivka, Khreschenikvka and Zoloto Balka as villages recaptured, or where Ukrainian troops had been photographed.

“It means that our armed forces are moving powerfully along the banks of the Dnipro nearer to Beryslav,” he said. “Officially, there is no such information yet, but the (Russian) social media pages which are panicking… absolutely confirm these photos.”

Reuters could not immediately verify where the images of flags had been recorded.

Similar Tactics to East

The advance in the south mirrors the tactics that have brought Kyiv major gains since the start of September in eastern Ukraine, where its forces swiftly seized territory to gain control of Russian supply lines, cutting off larger Russian forces and forcing them to retreat.

Just hours after a concert on Moscow’s Red Square on Friday where Russian President Vladimir Putin proclaimed the provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia to be Russian territory forever, Ukraine recaptured Lyman, the main Russian bastion in the north of Donetsk province.

That has opened the way for it to advance deep into Luhansk province, threatening the main supply routes to territory Moscow captured in some of the war’s bloodiest battles in June and July.

In the south, Ukraine’s advance targets supply lines for as many as 25,000 Russian troops on the west bank of the Dnipro. Ukraine has already destroyed the main bridges, forcing Russian forces to use makeshift crossings. A substantial advance down river could cut them off entirely.

“The fact we have broken through the front means that… the Russian army has already lost the ability to attack, and today or tomorrow it could lose the ability to defend,” said Oleh Zhdanov, a military analyst based in Kyiv.

“A month of our work destroying their supplies and reducing the combat effectiveness of this group means that they are functioning on minimal rations in terms of ammunition, fuel and food.””

Comment: We told you so. pl

Ukraine Makes Sweeping Advances, Kherson May Fall – Russian Collapse Possible | Newsmax.com

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28 Responses to “Ukraine Makes Sweeping Advances, Kherson May Fall – Russian Collapse Possible”

  1. TV says:

    128th Mountain Assault Brigade.
    Ukraine has “mountain” troops?

    • TTG says:


      Yes, from the Carpathians.

      • Bill Roche says:

        Similar to NY’s 10th Mtn Div out of Ft Drum?

        • TTG says:

          Bill Roche,

          The new 10th Mountain was, and I believe still is, a light infantry division. I don’t know how much winter and mountain training the infantry battalions go through. The 128th Mountain Assault Brigade is organized as a standard mech brigade with one tank battalion, two mech battalions, a motorized battalion and the standard brigade support package including an artillery group. It also has a mountain trained infantry battalion which may be light or motorized or even mechanized. The brigade’s crest consists of an Edelweiss and crossed mountain axes similar to Austrian and German mountain units.

          • Bill Roche says:

            Thank you.

          • Pat Lang says:

            Yeah, well, how mountainy is our 10th Mountain Division?

          • TTG says:


            I don’t think it’s very mountainy at all. Being stationed at Fort Drum, I would think it would have a handle on cold weather operations. Now 10th Group did all kinds of mountainy things including sending teams through the Austrian Army Mountain Guide School. Once you went through both the summer and winter iterations, you were awarded the Edelweiss badge.

  2. John Merryman says:

    I realize I’m an outlier, but the little voices are telling me it’s still a little early to be calling this for Ukraine. At best they are ahead at halftime. The Russians do have shorter supply lines. They are mobilizing. Blowing up Nord Stream is certainly proof this is for real. The Ukrainians offered up a good example of building up some reserves, then attacking, so it would seem the Russians are not incapable of doing something similar.
    As well as the fact there is some history behind the Russians taking a beating, but winning in the end.
    Obviously this will get me called a stooge for the Russians, but in reality, I’ve watched how such dynamics play out too many times, to understand that fortunes do turn.
    Then if it does, what becomes the new narrative, since so much psychodrama has been built up around this conflict?
    I just don’t buy anyone’s bridges.

    • blue peacock says:

      Yes, fortunes can change on a battlefield.

      The key question however is something more intangible like motivation & will to fight. What are the Russian soldiers fighting for? How passionate do they feel about it? Then the psychology of the current soldiers on the front and the newly mobilized conscripts yet to enter the theatre. What would the psychology of the Russian soldiers and command be after their retreat under pressure, being surrounded and attacked on all sides?

      The Ukrainian military has demonstrated a strong will to fight and a level of motivation. They resisted the initial Russian attacks and made the Russian military earn every mile of territory. Recall how they held out under tremendous odds at that steel plant for a substantial period of time? Recall how they forced the Kiev decapitation column to retreat?

      In contrast the Russian military is giving up real fast in the current counter-offensive which is an indicator of their psychological state. What is required to stiffen their spine and fight with the same level of will as the Ukrainian military?

      • John Merryman says:

        My read is the Ukrainians built up as much reserves as they could, probed for weaknesses in the Russian lines, then struck with much larger numbers, taking fairly heavy casualties.
        So what is their next move? Do they keep moving forward, creating even longer supply lines and further pushing the Russians? Dig in for the winter? What if the Russians do the same and attack where Ukrainian lines are stretched?
        My sense of the Russians, given I live in an area between suburban and rural, is the more liberal, western Russians are not into going to war, while the more Maga and rural version of the Russians are lining up, but that’s not the section of society the media tends to consider. They also tend to have more experience with firearms.
        This is war. Think chess. You have to consider the other guy’s next move, not just sit back and assume you beat him with your last brilliant move. My sense is it’s going to get a lot more serious and the Russians are going on more of a war footing, when they do get the details sorted out, while a lot of the people in the West don’t feel as invested in Ukraine as the media are telling us.
        Remember we had four years of them blaming Trump on the Russians, which collapsed into a lot of bs. They tried to impeach him for questioning Ukrainian corruption, associated with Hunter Biden. Up until February the most most people in this country knew about Ukraine was they were paying off Hunter. Now all of a sudden, they are beacons of democracy and fortitude. So say the same people who spent trillions blowing up various Middle Eastern countries, all for Mission Accomplished, then left the Afghanistan embassy rooftop in helicopters.
        I realize people are basically herd animals, but sometimes the narrative/bullshit does tend to wear a little thin.

    • Barbara Ann says:

      John Merryman

      If (when) the AFU reaches Kakhovka dam those supply lines will consist of a pontoon ferry next to the destroyed Antonivka bridge. The Dnieper is a minimum of 400 yards wide at Kherson, that’s a long swim.

      This ain’t halftime in the ballpark. This is like watching a wrecking ball being taken to a rotten edifice, just before it hits a main supporting wall.

      • John Merryman says:

        Barbara Ann,
        I certainly agree the Ukrainians are doing an excellent job of knocking back the Russians. My question is the longer term strategy.
        Light arms recon warfare is very effective at taking ground, but it needs some backup to hold it. Russia is not some small or even medium sized country, where you can overrun it, border to border, seize the capital and declare victory.
        For the locals, this war has been ongoing for 8 years and now the rest of the world is being sucked into it. The Western theory is that Russia can be broken up into some manageable chunks, where Mobil and Monsanto can scoop up the more valuable assets.
        While the Russian view is that it’s existential. Do they eventually turn around and bend over, or do they push back with all they can?
        My suspicion is that we will see a lot more pushback.

        • Barbara Ann says:

          John Merryman

          The neocons’ long term war-winning strategy has always been to weaken and eventually destroy Russia from within. Civil war followed by the installation of a neoliberal-friendly president is the standard game plan. Someone here perceptively suggested Ksenia Sobchak would be an ideal candidate. The disarmament/breakup/plunder of Russia can then begin in earnest.

          On February 24th Putin decided to play along by invading Ukraine. The day Russian troops crossed the border it was apparent to me that the war would be existential for Russia, as well as for Ukraine. Those who think that Russia can simply withdraw and we can all go back to the status quo ante are dreaming. Putin made sure of that with the annexations, i.e. abandonment of Russian territory is now synonymous with the collapse of the Russian government. In any case the neocons will certainly go in for the kill. Their goal is not peace, but regime change and chaos inside Russia.

          The $64,000 question now is what happens in Russia following the impending humiliating defeat of the Russian army. Will we see a 1905 military revolt, a 1917 revolution and civil war, a 1991 attempted hardliner coup – or something new?

          From the Russian nationalists’ POV it must be clear that Russia needs a wartime leader and that Putin ain’t it. Cometh the hour, cometh the man? One important factor is that the whole Russian leadership is well aware of the above-mentioned game plan and I therefore wouldn’t put money on a liberal takeover and new Gorbachev. It could very well go in the opposite direction and very soon we may be wishing the only slightly mad Putin was still the guy with his hand on the nuclear trigger.

          • John Merryman says:

            Barbara Ann,
            I think the fractures and weaknesses in the Western economic picture are a big part of the equation as well.
            It’s not like Biden is an ideal wartime leader either.
            My bet is both sides crash back into some state where foreign wars are a luxury, or we just go onto WW3 and it all gets real local.
            Either way, the wave of the last couple hundred years has peaked.
            Neo feudalism, rather than neo liberalism.

    • Phillip e Cattar says:

      Napoleon said the 50% of the army is morale.He also said 90% of war is information………..After he left the White House LBJ had an interview with Bill Moyers.Bill asked LBJ what happened in Vietnam……….LBJ replied…”My judgement was only as good as the information I received”.

      • John Merryman says:

        ”My judgement was only as good as the information I received”.
        The same could be said of George W. Bush.

  3. Lars says:

    Using Soviet history as a guideline omits such things as it did not work and secondly, we are now looking at a modern military taking on one that did not change much since the Soviet days. Add to this motivation, which Russia’s military seems to lack and the Ukrainians seem to have plenty of.

    There are also growing problems on the Russian home front that are likely to increase. It is also questionable whether Russia has the time and the means to turn the tide that is going against them.

    There was an old joke in the old Soviet Union: They pretend to pay us and we pretend to work. Since they now are facing a similar situation, they pretend to order us to fight and we pretend to do so.

  4. jim ticehurst.. says:

    The Hunt For Red Oktober…and other Con-Fusion…

  5. Sam says:

    Russian media Rybar’s latest map shows how dire the situation is in northern Kherson for Russia. These maps are 4 hours apart.


    It appears that the Ukrainian military are “herding” the Russian forces into a tighter pocket. At some point with insufficient resupply they’ll have to surrender or perish.

  6. Sam says:

    In Kherson the russians hold a sizeable bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnipro river (shaded red), which could only be supplied by two bridges, one just a bit North of Kherson and the other over the dam at Nova Kakhovka (purple pentagons).
    Since the arrival of M142 HIMARS both crossing have been pounded heavily by Ukrainian forces.

    Since August the Antonovsky bridge near Kherson is impassable for vehicles (photo), while the dam at Nova Kakhovka is still passable for trucks, but not heavy vehicles (photo). Over the last month Ukraine has been wearing the russian forces in Kherson down: through artillery fire, constant probing attacks, drone attacks, and by destroying their ammo and supplies. russia brought in pontoons to supply its forces in the South near Kherson (photo), but thanks to HIMARS Ukraine has been hitting and sinking these pontoons.

    Now Ukraine went on the offensive in the North and quickly overran the starving, demoralized russian forces there. This is the same map as in tweet 1, but seeing this map makes it easier to understand Ukraine’s initial attacks (blue arrows):
    One attack pierced the russian line near the Dnipro, using the 5 km wide river to cover its eastern flank. At the same time Ukrainian troops attacked from their Inhulets bridgehead – thus fixing the russians forces there in place.
    Meeting little resistance Ukrainian forces pushed South to Dudchany. This meant that the russian troops still holding the front in the North are now at risk of being encircled. The latest news indicate that these russians are already fleeing from there (red arrows).
    Kherson is steppe = a flat landscape with some thin treelines as only cover. There are no natural barriers, which makes it impossible for the russians to set up an improvised defensive line. The russians can’t stop retreating until the next natural barrier: either the Dnipro river or the Inhulets river. Retreating over the Dnipro Nova Kakhovka would make more sense for the russians, as (Photo of the landscape in northern Kherson – ideal armored warfare country) here their trucks and light vehicles can still cross and once on the left bank the russians could set up a defensive line to secure the rear of their forces fighting in Zaporizhzhia.

    The other option is to retreat South to the Inhulets river (blue line). Retreating to the Inhulets would be what a complete moron does… so the russians will do it.

    Let’s look again at the map with the second phase of the operation in Kherson: the russians retreat either over the Nova Kakhovka dam or over the Inhulets river: if they retreat over the dam they will have to leave all their heavy vehicles behind, if they retreat over the Inhulets they will have to abandon most of their vehicles for lack of fuel.
    And if the russians retreat over the Inhulets, the Ukrainians can cross the Dnipro and establish a bridgehead on the left bank, from which they can attack towards Crimea and Melitopol. At Kakhovka they can also cut the water to Crimea.

    In short the russians only have bad options (putin the “strategic genius” at it again).

    Some russians will flee over the Nova Kakhovka dam, but most will retreat over the Inhulets… and as said that’s the most moronic option, because then the russians there will be boxed in by Ukrainian troops from three sides, with M777 howitzers able to hit almost every spot, and AHS Krab, PzH 2000, Zuzana 2 and CAESAR able to hit every spot. And the only supply line will be pontoons, whose landing spots on both sides of the Dnipro are in Ukrainian artillery range.
    Retreating over the Inhulets is retreating into a death trap. Once Ukrainian M777 can hit the pontoons no ammo, no fuel, no food – nothing will reach the 15,000 russians stuck there. It’s starve to death or freeze to death or surrender for them.

    And they can’t flee across the Antonovsky bridge as Ukrainian spotters will see them & artillery will shred them. And in fall/winter they can’t swim across the 1 km wide Dnipro river with its freezing water, as that would mean death by hypothermia.

    Putin just annexed Kherson, so he refuses to give it up… which means he has doomed all the russian troops there to death.


    It appears that the 25k Russian military force on the west of the Dnieper are in a world of hurt. If they collapse quickly and surrender will Crimea get hosed?

  7. Sam says:

    The Russians in Kherson Oblast have a real problem now that this key Ukrainian railway switching yard is in AFU hands.


    ELECTRONIC WARFARE: Tomaburque @tomaburque has posted this unique video of UKR forces using anti-drone weapons to take control of a small Russian reconnaissance UAV on the battlefield. Russia’s workhorse UAV, the Orlan-10, has proven especially vulnerable to Ukrainian EW.


    The Ukrainian military is demonstrating in this counter-offensive not only their fighting spirit but also tactics. What options do the Russian forces west of the Dnieper in Kherson really have? It would appear that their best choice is to surrender.

    • Pat Lang says:

      “It would appear that their best choice is to surrender.” Yes. It would appear to be a “mate” in chess terms unless Putin wants to roll the dice on nuclear escalation.

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