“In the east, Ukrainian forces continue to grind forward and have repelled repeated Russian efforts to seize towns like Bakhmut and Pavlivka, reportedly killing hundreds of Russian soldiers. In the south, they are striking deep behind Russian lines, hitting Moscow’s troops before they can settle and build defenses on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, across from Kherson.
Ukrainian forces have repeatedly repelled Russian efforts to seize towns like Bakhmut, in the eastern Donbas region.
© Finbarr O’Reilly for The New York Times
And there are growing hints from troops on the ground, and volunteers close to them, that the Ukrainians are preparing for a new land offensive between those two fronts, south through the Zaporizhzhia region toward Melitopol, challenging Russia’s hold on the entire southern area that it seized in the invasion that began in February.” pl
Ukraine Signals It Will Stay on the Offensive, Despite Talk of a Lull (msn.com)
Ukraine should definitely stay on the offensive and do so quickly. They should already have plans, movement tables and logistics moving into place to support the next operation. The Ukrainian units from the Kherson front are largely intact while what ever Russia salvaged from the retreat are undoubtedly in pretty bad shape. Just as important, the Ukrainian morale is sky high while the Russian morale is in the ditch. Strike before any of that changes. Sure the Ukrainian units could use some rest, recuperation and refitting, but the Russians shouldn’t be allowed the time to do the same.
Melitipol seems the obvious target, but taking Tokmak alone would accomplish almost the same thing. With the Kerch Bridges still mostly out of operation, taking Tokmak alone will leave the Russians remaining in the Kherson region in a logistical nightmare. Alternatively, much the same can be accomplished with a thrust from the Vulhedar area towards Volnovakha/Mariupol again with the goal of cutting the rail/road LOC. Ukraine has options, which is a very good thing.
are the Russians strong along the south east bank of the Dnieper? Do you think the UM will move its artillery right up to the west bank of the river and can they reach the Russians from those advanced firing positions? Knowing zilch, my vote is for UM to cross upstream and move south along the east side of the Dnieper while fire from Kerhson “west” pummels the ship out of the Russians.
Be frank, dont hold back … dumb plan??
Bill Roche,
The Russian positions on the left bank of the Dnipro are a naturally strong line of defense. They’ve been working on them for a while. They will certainly be subject to Ukrainian indirect fire and it appears they are already subject to cross river raids by Ukrainian SOF. All that will continue to pressure the Russians to keep more forces along that river line than they probably want to. I think it’s an important part of whatever the Ukrainians do next.
I don’t think moving south along those river defenses in a flank attack is the best COA. Attacking south towards Melitopol or Mariupol will deprive those river defenses of a reliable LOC much like the interdiction of the Dnipro river crossings did with the Russian forces in Kherson. They were forced to retreat rather than being beaten back every step of the way. That’s what we want the Russians to do, not engage in a battle of attrition.
Not going to argue with you. A move toward Mariupol will effectively be a turning movement against Russian forces just withdrawn from Kherson.
pl,
By God, you’re right! I guess that’s why you’re a COL and I’m just a LTC. 😉
You are a bold stratagist. But Zaporizyha must first be taken and then the UKM can move south east to Melitipol. If successful it’s slice em and dice em. RM on the east side of Dinieper will be held in place to prevent a UKM crossing. But a successful UKM swath to Melitopol will be exposed on both northern and southern flanks. It is a bold move but if successful will cut RM lines of communication and leave the RM in two pockets. This w/b an awful end to 9 months of hostilities and perhaps induce Putin to suggest an end to them. Like our host, I originally believed a partition of the Donbass was in order. I still do. A “Cyprus like” arrangement of Crimea may be workable (?). Russia gets the eastern half and Sevastopol, Ukraine gets the west?? This is tuff work. BTW, happy Vets day all.
Bill Roche,
Ukraine still holds the city of Zaporizhzhia. The front line is 40 to 50 km south of the city on the left (east) side of the Dnipro. Tokmak is less than 50 km further south from the front lines. after that, it’s Melitopol. From my vantage point of sitting on my ass in Stafford, Virginia, it looks eminently doable.
For Vets Day, I got my free BBQ sandwich, a generous helping of fatty brisket on an oversized bun along with some quick conversations with a few other vets. Stafford is traditionally 50/50 Democrats and Republicans, But the hallmark of the local community is the highest expression of respect and courtesy. I see this every day in every venue. I attribute much of this to the preponderance of veterans and military in the area.
” the Ukrainian morale is sky high while the Russian morale is in the ditch. Strike before any of that changes.”
And the Ukrainians, with their bent for IT and hacking, may have the Russians shooting at each other bfore long, if it hasn’t happened already:
https://t.me/EternalMuscovite/32138?single
“Come into my parlor said the spider to the fly…”
This spider will run if pushed.
I’d agree if they had done it before, as the old Soviet (and current Russian) doctrine calls for.
Attacks on Kiev with Drones, could be seen as part of Phase I Defensive Fires, but it is too ad hoc to be effective.
At the same time the Ukrainians have gotten better at Counterfire.
Let’s see . . . .
Since my military experience consists of 38 days in the Swedish Royal Cavalry, into which I was drafted by mistake, since I was still in college. I would like to see more experienced people talk about the psychological aspects of combat, since to me it appears that it is very important, as we observe what it going on in the Ukraine. To me, motivation has to be a very important aspect, whether you succeed or not. It may in the long run be the most important factor, up there with having the proper equipment.
Tokmak it is.
On another note.looks to me the funny money is on the move.
First the fake 2b dollar powerball winner and now the collapse of ftx for a few billion all in one week.not to forget the election.
And of course there is bibi.
If The CHEF..was Preparing His Menu..an He Is..
I Would throw out The PORK CHOP..And Suggest Something Like
Hey BOSS..What if The Russians are Capable Of a Massive Effect Missile Attack
on KYIV…Bunker Busters and More…Dinner would be Served while Kyiv
is Celebrating Thier “Dignity and Freedom Day”..Which is Also A Celebration
of Thier Air Assault Day…UkrAAF..
that Holiday is on November 21st..They Weather for Ukraine that Weekend..
Nov 18th 27/18
Nov 19th 34/25
Nov 20th 35/28
Nov 21st 36/26 The Holiday
Im Sure Our ICC Would know if such An Assault..Cyber/Missile/Space./Subs
is Possible..Expect The Worst…Anticipate…Plan..Prepare..
JT
Russia has been steady..building its Missile Capacitys..with Imports..and Alliances to help thier Planning…Drones for diversion..The Recent Withdrawl..To Prepare This
Offensive Capability..In What The Colonel..and others know Is just Typical Slice and Dice..
.Now The Ukranians are on the Defensive…With More Brutal Russian attacks
again Today..Low Inventorys Developing All Over..No Heat..Water..Electric..Begging For Gwenerators and Parts all over..
There is an Obvious Logistical Pattern Here…Wars are Lost through Attrition..
JT
Men fight, not weapons.
Colonel Lang..
“Men Fight…Not Weapons” I know you understand that Far Beyond anyone else here..I have Followed your Writings and Comments For about 18 Years..With Respect and Gratitude..and consider you a Mentor I could never have had any other Way..
I Analyze Current Events With Many or Most of .of What you have written in Mind..Especially as a Exceptional Historian..Reminded That These Events Involve All The Worlds Ancient and Current Empires..Combined..With Far more Power than Any time in History…But There are Historical Events..That Changed Outcomes..
I Am thinking About General (Sultan) of Egypt.. Saladin.1138…1193.. who Fought the Crusaders..He Iniated the Siege of Beruit in 1182..But That Failed..and He withdrew and learned To Modify..Combining Sea and Land Operations..
He Then engaged in the Battle of Hattin..in 1187..With New Tactics..He Won..Defeated..The Crusaders..In His Show Down with Richard the Lionheart
and The Third Crusade..and Captured Jerusalem.. As You Know..
Now..We in the West are engaged With ALL Empires..And Russia is Not Alone..
They Will Be Destryed..But Perhaps Not in Ukraine..I Analyse One Day at Time..
One Event to The Next..
With My Regards..
JT
JT I know of only one world empire, China. Russia is a would be empire (The Empire Strikes Back?). Did you read about Russian signs in Kherson “Russia has Returned” “Kherson is Russian Forever”. These sentiments d/n begin in 2014, the fight for Ukrainian independence goes back 100 years. I envision, hope!!, Poles, Slovaks, Czechs, Hungarians, Germans, French and British will tell Putin you have no gone too far. Tuchman, I think, wrote a book about Europe b/f electricity.. an age lit only by sunlight, something such. Unable to kill enough Ukies on the ground Russia goes up top to rtn Ukraine to the 15th century. The rest of Europe needs to say no. If that means, jets, air defense systems, and “helpful foreign brigades” in Ukraine’s west releasing Ukrainians to fight in the east then so be it. Slavic Europe is sitting at the table and the pot is Ukrainian people, cities, and soldiers. Forget about the E.U. This is the telling moment for eastern democracies – which side are you on boys which side are you on. Putin brought this, eastern Europeans must respond. Unless Putin knows they have no manhood?