“According to Russian sources, the Ukrainian army is massing mechanized forces around Hulyaipole.
If that’s true, it could be a sign that Ukraine’s fourth counteroffensive might be imminent, despite the onset of winter. This widely-anticipated attack—the Zaporizhzhia left hook—would aim to liberate much of southern Ukraine and push Ukrainian troops all the way to the narrow neck of land connecting mainland Ukraine to the Crimean Peninsula, which Russian forces seized in 2014.
Russian troops at present are thin on the ground in Zaporizhzhia. But then, so are Ukrainian troops. The sector along the Hulyaipole-Polohy axis since this spring has been the haunt of separate brigade-size Russian and Ukrainian units.
On the Russian side: the 291st Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment, which on paper has a couple thousand soldiers and scores of armored vehicles.
On the Ukrainian side: the 106th Territorial Defense Brigade, a lightly-equipped formation with a few thousand volunteers from the local area. The 19th Separate Rifle Battalion, a 400-strong active-army unit, reinforces the territorial brigade.”
Comment: If the Ukies are going to try to attack south to severe the Russian land bridge supply line, they will be concealing the location of their operational level reserves.
The “winter” thing doesn’t mean anything if the ground is hard.
The Vlahos/Macgregor duo may get to see if the Rooshians are lying in wait. pl