“Ukrainian Troops May Be Massing For Their Fourth Counteroffensive. Russian Artillery Is Already Trying To Stop Them.”

What did I used to do for a living …

“According to Russian sources, the Ukrainian army is massing mechanized forces around Hulyaipole.

If that’s true, it could be a sign that Ukraine’s fourth counteroffensive might be imminent, despite the onset of winter. This widely-anticipated attack—the Zaporizhzhia left hookwould aim to liberate much of southern Ukraine and push Ukrainian troops all the way to the narrow neck of land connecting mainland Ukraine to the Crimean Peninsula, which Russian forces seized in 2014.

Russian troops at present are thin on the ground in Zaporizhzhia. But then, so are Ukrainian troops. The sector along the Hulyaipole-Polohy axis since this spring has been the haunt of separate brigade-size Russian and Ukrainian units.

On the Russian side: the 291st Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment, which on paper has a couple thousand soldiers and scores of armored vehicles.

On the Ukrainian side: the 106th Territorial Defense Brigade, a lightly-equipped formation with a few thousand volunteers from the local area. The 19th Separate Rifle Battalion, a 400-strong active-army unit, reinforces the territorial brigade.”

Comment: If the Ukies are going to try to attack south to severe the Russian land bridge supply line, they will be concealing the location of their operational level reserves.

The “winter” thing doesn’t mean anything if the ground is hard.

The Vlahos/Macgregor duo may get to see if the Rooshians are lying in wait. pl

Ukrainian Troops May Be Massing For Their Fourth Counteroffensive. Russian Artillery Is Already Trying To Stop Them. (msn.com)

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10 Responses to “Ukrainian Troops May Be Massing For Their Fourth Counteroffensive. Russian Artillery Is Already Trying To Stop Them.”

  1. TTG says:

    A week or so ago, the Pentagon announced there would be a winter lull in the fighting. I found that announcement odd. surely there are those in that building that know that the frozen ground is conducive to mechanized operations and that fighting in the dry cold is far preferable to trying to survive and fight in the wet cold. Thanks to the “arsenal of democracy,” the Ukrainian forces are fairly well equipped to continue operations in the winter.

    I think the Pentagon announcement was part of a deliberate deception plan to convince the Russians that would not face another Ukrainian offensive until spring, when the raputitsa returns. Surely the Russians, as dysfunctional as they now are, are not gullible enough to swallow this.

    • Leith says:

      I saw that “Winter-Lull” announcement also. It was made by DNI April Haines. Seems strange they would use someone that high up to push a deception plan?

      • TTG says:


        I’ve been involved in strategic deception operations. You’d be surprised who may be involved in implementing them.

        OTOH maybe Haines and her staff don’t know their collective asses from a hole in the ground about winter combat operations.

        • Leith says:

          As DNI she surely gets reporting and analysis from DIA. I would expect that DIA, and the Army’s MI Corps, would know for sure the winter capability of UKR armor.

    • Bill Roche says:

      I read/noted that comment also. My thought … why would our Pentagon make such an announcement? So I discounted it.

  2. borko says:

    Looks like someone has just sabotaged a bridge in Melitopol. A coincidence ?

  3. wtofd says:

    Wading through vol I of Foote’s Civil War and thinking better in the winter with frozen ground than in the spring. Any truth to that?

  4. Al says:

    Snow comes off your boots much better than mud!!!

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