“Wagner chief claims complete capture of Bakhmut, but Ukraine says it still controls part of the city”

“Hold on, Bakhmut. We’ll meet again”
Illia Ponomarenko, defense reporter with the Kyiv Independent

The chief of the Wagner private military group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, claimed Saturday that his forces have taken complete control of the long-contested city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. “The operation to capture Bakhmut lasted 224 days,” he said in a video posted to Telegram, seeking to claim a final victory for the city.

CNN could not independently verify Prigozhin’s claim, and a message from a Ukrainian defense official partially disputed it. Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar, in a Telegram post less than an hour after the Russian mercenary’s claim was published, admitted the situation in Bakhmut was “critical” but said Ukrainian troops were still “holding the defense in the ‘Airplane’ district of the city,” which is on Bakhmut’s westernmost edge. “As of now, our defenders control certain industrial and infrastructure facilities in the area and the private sector,” she said.  

While Russian forces have continued their slow street-by-street advance in the city itself for many months, Ukrainian forces have recently managed to re-capture small pockets of outlying territory to the northwest and southwest of the city. Prigozhin claimed his forces will hand the control of Bakhmut to the Russian military on May 25.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-20-23/index.html

Comment: The phrase “Bakhmut Holds” has been a Ukrainian rallying cry since last summer. It’s getting pretty thin now. Thin enough to be retired. At the same time, Prigozhin’s capture of Bakhmut seems pretty hollow. It was a logical intermediate objective on the road to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, but the Russian’s ability to even hold the flanks of Bakhmut are now in doubt.

This is a smart move by Prigozhin to declare victory at this point and “unass the AO” as we often referred to any kind of pull out. Objectively, he and his Wagner Group needs to do this. They’re badly in need of rest and refit. Although every Russian unit on the line around Bakhmut seems to be in the same predicament. If the Wagner Group is out of the battle when the Ukrainian counteroffensive commences, they can’t be tainted by any ensuing Russian setbacks and they and Prigozhin will be in a position to take advantage of any situation those setbacks may bring. I think that’s been Prigozhin’s thinking for some time now.

TTG

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78 Responses to “Wagner chief claims complete capture of Bakhmut, but Ukraine says it still controls part of the city”

  1. Fourth and Long says:

    I’m trying to devise a scale which measures the stupidity, ignorance and evil of the two greatest douchebags in human history. They are presently occupying the presidencies of two states armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons. I once thought Dubya was peerless in all three categories. No. Maybe it’s a trend. But this trend is noone’s friend.
    ——————–
    Although first fielded decades ago, the F-16 has been continuously updated and remains one of the most capable, complex and deadly weapons systems in the world. With a range of more than 500 miles, it is capable of fielding the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile, with a range of up to 1,200 miles. These weapons threaten both Moscow and St. Petersburg.
    US announces plans to send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine:
    https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/05/20/wddy-m20.html

    • TTG says:

      F&L,

      Finland already has JASSM capable FA-18s and JASSM missiles. Maybe Putin should have thought that through before he invaded Ukraine. That lead to Finland joining NATO and having NATO JASSMs on his doorstep.

      • Fourth and Long says:

        Not a flyboy like my poppa was but IMO the nail in the coffin, which I am convinced of particularly because a) no one talks about it b) it’s derided as a wasteful boondoggle – intentional USAF disinfo to my way of thinking .. is the stealth nuclear capable F-35.

        Think about it – think about the levels of terror you can inflict with a nuclear weapon that can be RECALLED! (As the targeted country is overflown Untetected. Makes it a huge step up from cruise and ballistic and standoff varieties and flavors. I assume you watched Slim Pickens flying his B-52 in Dr Strangelove. One of the main features there was that they couldn’t call him back. And Finland has been scheduled for 63 of them.

      • walrus says:

        TTG, it cuts both ways. How would Finland like to lose Helsinki?

        How would America like to lose New York?

        This is brinkmanship.

        • TTG says:

          walrus,

          Absolutely true, so is threatening to destroy European capitals with the supposedly undetectable, unstoppable Kinzhal. Moscow has been making those threats even before their invasion. In my opinion, we’d all be better served by developing better air defense systems. Unfortunately, even those can be used for offensive strikes as all the S-300 and S-400 ground strikes have shown.

        • Fred says:

          walrus,

          The US is already losing NYC, Chicago, SF, LA and a host of others.

        • PeterHug says:

          I don’t think any NATO country is seriously proposing to threaten (however obliquely) a nuclear attack on any part of Russia, let alone Moscow or St Petersburg.

      • Fred says:

        TTG,

        Finland, with 55 aircraft, are going to theaten the Russians? Why, to help retake Ukraine? If they are that keen on the matter how much money are they shipping to Zelensky to fund his government?

        • TTG says:

          Fred,

          Finland can’t realistically threaten Russia, nor can NATO. Maybe that’s why Putin thought he could get away with invading Ukraine. Finland’s support to Ukraine is around one billion Euros so far.

          • Fred says:

            TTG,

            “…nor can NATO”
            What? You mean that NATO, without the armed forces of the United States, was, and is, a paper tiger unable to defend itself? Germany, France, Turkey, the UK and all the rest combined can’t ‘threaten Russia either?” Somebody should have thought of than before color revolutionizing Ukraine; thousands of people wouldn’t be dead, injured, or homeless if they had.

          • TTG says:

            Fred,

            No. I mean NATO with or without the US cannot invade and defeat Russia. Now Ukraine has made it clear that NATO can defend itself and that’s its whole purpose.

            The Euromaidan could have been avoided if Yukoshenko and Putin didn’t try to subvert the Verkkovna Rada’s approved plan to accept the EU development plan in favor of a Moscow plan. That’s what triggered that revolution. Ukraine already had a colr revolution in 2004-2005, the Orange Revolution.

          • TTG says:

            Fred,

            No. I mean NATO with or without US forces cannot invade and defeat Russia. It was never meant to do so. Given Ukraine’s example, NATO can surely defeat any attempted Russian invasion. Russia should also realize this, but I think they’re still too invested in the belief in their own invincibility.

            The Euromaidan Revolution would have been avoided if Yanukovych and Putin didn’t try to subvert the will of the Vervohvna Rada and the Ukrainian people who elected it by rejecting the EU deal and replacing it with a Kremlin deal. Ukraine already had her color revolution back in 2004-2005, the Orange Revolution.

          • Fred says:

            TTG,

            You mean the legislature “the Verkkovna Rada’” of Ukraine is the executive body and the president, then Yukoshenko, had no say in foreign affairs? I wonder who in Ukraine elected that guy. Surly that’s not the time when the US Government was spending billions on “democracy” and Victoria Nuland was busy with her renowned “f” the EU commentary; and passing out cookies?

          • TTG says:

            Fred,

            Ukrainian governments have been pushing for greater integration in the EU since 2005. The EU was the side slow rolling greater integration. The two side did conclude a free trade agreement in 2007. Negotiations for the Association Agreement began in 2012 and were to be signed in November 2013. The Verkhovna Rada approved it and Yanukovych supported it until he did not after meetings with Putin and he refused to sign the already ratified agreement in November 2013. Protests ensued. Nuland’s cookies didn’t occur until January-February 2014, after the Euromaidan protests were already in full bloom. But the five billion dollars and ten years of US investment did precede all that.

          • leith says:

            Fred –

            I suspect you meant Yanukovych, Putin’s puppet, who was president at the time. There was never a Yukoshenko president of Ukraine that I recall. There was a Viktor Yushchenko who was prez from 2005 to 2010. He survived dioxin poisoning. Most likely by Yankovych with the aid of Putin’s SVR toxin laboratory. i.e. The same lab that developed Navalny’s & the Skipals’ novichok poison, Litvinenko’s polonium tea, and whatever toxic witches brew they gave to Politkovskaya and Verzilov.

          • leaNder says:

            <i<and whatever toxic witches brew they gave to Politkovskaya and Verzilov.

            A somewhat strange combination. Bullets are witches brew too? But, considering the originator: Vaguely interesting.

          • Fred says:

            Leith,

            Sorry to confuse my Ukrainian presidenHow many billions did the National Endowment for Democracy pump into Ukraine for how many years? How many years was the US directly or indirectly funding ‘research’ labs in Ukraine ? “Biological Threat Reduction Program “? One would think that with all the ‘democracy’ and ‘pro-western’ outlook they wouldn’t need a decades worth of welfare two decades after the collapse of the USSR.

          • TTG says:

            Fred,

            We’ve probably provided that mobile biolab support at least since 2019 when Covid hit all of us.

            “Sanitary-Epidemiological Department (SED) of the Medical Command of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense received four mobile laboratories from DTRA with the goal of reinforcing the system of epidemiological surveillance in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense received an official Order from the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine concerning the deployment of the mobile labs to the regions of Kyiv, Lviv and Eastern Ukraine to help with the COVID-19 response.”

            https://ua.usembassy.gov/embassy/kyiv/sections-offices/defense-threat-reduction-office/biological-threat-reduction-program/

            BTW, you didn’t just confuse the Ukrainian presidents’ names. You made one up. No big deal since East European surnames can trip up anyone not from the region.

          • wiz says:

            TTG

            you kind of started the ball rolling on this Yukoshenko thing. You have 2 versions of the same post, the 1st one featuring Yukoshenko.

          • TTG says:

            wiz,

            Ah, now I see. I’m the one who conjured up the phantom Yukoshenko, not Fred. Sorry Fred. I steered you wrong. I caught the error, but still managed to print the comment with the fake name rather than deleting it. My bad.

          • Fred says:

            TTG,

            According to the DOD website it has been a decade. That is about 9 years too long and like all the rest of the funds shipped into Ukraine of dubious value and limited oversight. There is zero reason for the US government to fund any lab outside the US, the former USSR nations least of all.

          • leith says:

            leaNder –

            Putin is a lifetime member in the League of Lady Poisoners. He’ll be keeping company with Lucretia B and other politicidal femi-maniacs when he crosses over. What is that German word for a “vicious circle”? It will suit him fine.

          • LeaNder says:

            He’ll be keeping company with Lucretia B and other politicidal femi-maniacs

            Are y0u trying to tell me, its all mythical, there will never be a shred of historical evidence as in Lucretia Borgia’s case, which necessarily must make our belief even stronger? Can’t be.

            Nadezhda Tolokonnikova and Pyotr Verzilov have my sympathy. Putin’s obsession with the Russian female womb triggers unpleasant associations for me too. 😉

        • leith says:

          LeaNder –

          Tolokonnikova has an interesting website and twitter account. She says to Putin as one wanted criminal to another that he, and all those who support his evil war in Ukraine are dead inside and must be defeated.

    • Mark Logan says:

      F&L,

      The F-16 has become our primary HARM/AA suppression platform too.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-88_HARM

      • Fourth and Long says:

        Mark Logan,
        Yes. An observation which leaves me speechless. There was scuttlebutt on a Telegram channel, albeit by a Ru who is sharply critical of the system and leadership there (to put it mildly) about resettling young people in the countryside. The fellow is bright and knowledgeable but has a way of expressing himself that in translation leaves me confused. Whatever he’s trying to get across here or not, the small bits of information it does contain had me thinking that the leadership there is actually contemplating picking up stakes and heading toward the Urals. I guess if that’s partly correct that it has nothing to do with the military situation (?) [Sarcasm]. Probably not, it probably is .. I don’t know, maybe demographics? Sorry. A sample:
        ———————-
        The idea expressed by Matvienko this week about resettling young people in the countryside might seem somewhat strange, especially in terms of its possible implementation. Actually, Matvienko herself clearly did not think over the mechanism for such a resettlement, saying only that some “rural bloggers” should contribute to this. However, within the framework of the ongoing processes in the country, such a proposal actually fits into their logic. The Russian urbanization of modern times is qualitatively different from the Soviet one. In the USSR, the migration of the population from the countryside to the city was associated, on the one hand, with the industrialization of the country, on the other hand, with the enlargement of the agro- industrial complex, in fact, also with industrialization, only rural. In 1926 the proportion of the urban population was a little..
        ————————-
        If you want to attempt making sense out of it here’s a link to a translation. Since the guy is overly intellectual maybe he misses that it’s just a rumor being circulated to let the everyday people think that their leaders have things covered in case Napolean burning Moscow again is in the works, and he uses it as an excuse to expatiate.
        https://tinyurl.com/mvuv44yf

        • Mark Logan says:

          F&L,

          Suppressed AA is key to shock and awe.

          Most of my impressions of Russians is founded on the old book “The Russians” (of course!) but Hedrick Smith. He spent a lot of time there in the 70s and was allowed a surprising amount of freedom. A story told with a thousand anecdotes accumulated over a career of close contact. There is a strange mixture of deep love for their homeland while fully aware their government was crap. They were proud nonetheless. Still are. Remarkable how deeply ingrained the feeling that the government manages everything and how much their government feels the same way…while both being so plainly wrong about that. Bad management is better than no management because it gives one something to blame! If they ever shed that stuff it will be a process of generations, I reckon.

          • Fourth and Long says:

            Two or three years ago I reread Sulzberger’s little paperback on the China v USSR dilemmas of the late 60s. Dated but still valuable. If so and it likely is, then you’re right – they have a ways to go yet.

          • Fourth and Long says:

            Mark Logan,
            Sorry I made an error in a previous post – the book was by Harrison Salisbury (1969) “War Between Russia and China.”
            Sounds ridiculous now, it wasn’t then

          • leith says:

            f &l –

            There was some serious fighting going on back in 1969. Happened both along the Manchuria/PrimorskiKrai border and the Xinxiang/Kazakh border. Chinese were the aggressors. And they still have a sore heinie and hold a grudge over the Tsar’s cossacks stealing much of the Amur river basin and Eastern Siberia half a millennium ago.

    • drifter says:

      F&L, calling people douchebag, evil, bad guy, ne’er do well, cad – this just says stuff about you. What you think about the other person.

      • Fourth and Long says:

        And calling myself “drifter” would indicate .. oh, my apologies, after all look at my handle. Maybe you have a good point. Maybe I should have stuck to “Descendants of an isle of the Cyclades, of whom it was said in a famous syllogism used for the purpose of teaching Aristotelian logic, that they are all liars” and continued from there. In the spirit of another great intellect who declared that Mendelian genetics violated the foundational absurdities of Dialectical Materialism, and let a charlatan named Lysenko dominate Soviet genetics. When, after his spies found that the Americans would soon have a working atom bomb, and his ideologues informed him that in order for Soviet bomb makers to do likewise they would need to use the recent Quantum Theory which also violated Marxist dogma because it called into question naive concepts of causality … that same Emperor of all Monsters (or “helmsman of all mankind” if you prefer) might have responded “Well, the Scots metaphysicist and historian David Hume proved centuries ago that causality is a pleasant fiction,” he chose not to and chose to say “That’s alright, let them use their Quantum Theory and build us an atom bomb, we can shoot them later.” The all towering intellect at the helm today joined up with that surpassing sage’s very honorable secret police. Of course that’s a low blow, and I should be ashamed of myself.
        I have gone on record saying that I consider the western leaders far more evil and sick in the head than anyone with the exception possibly of Attila, Genghis, Nero and the twerp who Charlie Chaplin lampooned in film. I’m sorry again, I realize that the twerp I refer to is a great hero yet today whose history is being revised by let’s see .. perverse psychopaths, sadistic malcontents, guys with inadequate .. , oh no, I better say “Questionable Historians.”
        I myself am made of the same molecules, water, potatoes and digested hamburger buns with ketchup and pickle as all the above, and declare that you are quite correct. I’m an awful person. And sincerely thank you. In the future I will try to restrict myself to “noble and far-seeing helmsman of all human and huwoman kind including transvestites and nonbinaries especially,” and will now for an acronym consult the website TinyInsult.com which provides a handy insult abbreviation for any insult of any length.
        Our all-seeing eye will be checking to see who among the leadership of certain countries types that URL into a search engine dialogue box. Hohoho, said the Jolly Green Giant. (It’s TTG’s real name, which he devised by reversing GGJ, and performing mathematical transformations which no one is at liberty to disclose.

  2. Jovan P says:

    Zaluzhnyi is probably dead, the Ukrainian lost app. 30 thousand soldiers trying to deny the Russians their ”hollow” victory around Bakhmut, the Russians blew up a weapons storage in Khmelnytskyi which most likely contained a British gift – depleted uranium ammo, etc, etc.

    As cherry on top of this great tragedy, Zelensky made a gift to the Pope – a ”picture” of the Mother of God holding a blackened Christ Son of God. Art, blasphemie of pure satanism – judge for yourself.

    https://www.vaticannews.va/en/pope/news/2023-05/pope-francis-ukrainian-president-zelensky-audience-war-peace.html

    • TTG says:

      Jovan P,

      The painting is titled “Loss 2022-58,” it commemorates the 243 children who died during the first 58 days of the war, said an accompanying explanation. Those deaths may be chalked up as a tragedy of war. The deliberate kidnapping of so many more along with rape and torture of others by the Russians and condoned by the Russian government is as close to pure satanism as one can get. And you adore them. You disgust me. Don’t come back.

      • ked says:

        something tells me the Black Madonnas spread across Europe, Africa & Russia over the past millennium concur, TTG.

        • TTG says:

          ked,

          That was my first thought, but this painting shows the complete absence of the Christ child to symbolize the complete absence of the killed Ukrainian children.

  3. wiz says:

    Strelkov now claims that it was in fact Wagner that captured and then recaptured Palmyra and not the Russian regular forces.

    Could it really be that the bulk of Russian regular military is so badly trained and led that
    it relies on PMCs to do its fighting ? Even against ISIS ?

  4. drifter says:

    Bakhmut is important because of the price Ukraine paid in trying to hold it. Everything else about Bakhmut is secondary.

    Wagner is a “staffing solution” for the Russian military. They stand up task forces. The Ministry of Defense (MoD) is unable to do this on account of the rigidity of Russian armed forces org structure and pay scales. Wagner recruits Russian ex-military. They enable rank and pay that is different from MoD can offer, but attractive to soldiers who want to fight. At the end of the day, MoD controls Wagner. And Prigozhin isn’t in the chain of command.

    • TTG says:

      drifter,

      The price the Russians paid in taking it is the main reason offered for defending Bakhmut. Wagner, alone, lost 50,000 in the fight to take it.

      • drifter says:

        Hopiam. Neither side suffered this level of casualties.

        • TTG says:

          drifter,

          My mistake. Wagner sent 50,000 total with 30,000 casualties. The Ukrainian government, of course, claims many more.

          • Yeah, Right says:

            I would be astounded if Wagner had 10,000 men under arms.

            The claim that it is 50,000 strong is …. well, words fail me.

            You’ve been listening to Kirby again, I assume?

          • TTG says:

            Yeah, Right,

            A huge part of that increase was the prison recruits. Wagner’s normal strength is around 10,000.

          • PeterHug says:

            Honestly, the actual casualty figures may be a bit irrelevant. The salient point is that Wagner shows absolutely no evidence of any ability or inclination to push on from where they are now. They want out. (I think Prigozhin has proposed handing over the city to the Russian Army on May 25; I expect that most of the actual soldiers there feel that 8 – 12 hours would be a much more reasonable timeline)

            Prigozhin is clearly an asshole and likely a war criminal, but he isn’t a complete idiot. He knows what’s coming next.

          • Yeah, Right says:

            OK, so you have been listening to Kirby, that much is now undeniable.

            And, apparently, you consider him to be a font of knowledge and a purveyor of unimpeachable truth.

            Have you ever considered the possibility that he is pulling your chain?

          • TTG says:

            Yeah, Right,

            Those are US, UK and NATO intel assessments. Ukrainian assessments are higher. I certainly find the US and NATO numbers more believable than the Kremlin’s numbers. Don’t you think the Kremlin is pulling your chain?

          • Yeah, Right says:

            “Don’t you think the Kremlin is pulling your chain?”

            No, because the NATO / USA / UK (but, of course, I repeat myself) estimates fly in the face of all common-sense.

            1) Everyone agrees that the Russians have more artillery – by far – than the Ukrainians
            2) Everyone agrees that the Russians are using that preponderance of artillery to keep their own casualties down while maximizing Ukrainian casualties.
            3) So – obviously! – it is the Russians who are suffering the horrendous casualties, while Ukrainian casualty figures are [mumble] [mumble] [mumble]

            Utter nonsense, but not as nonsensical as the idea that:
            1) The Wagner Group want to expand their numbers.
            2) The Wagner Group are mercenaries i.e. they pay better than the Russian Army.
            3) So – obviously! – the way to build up numbers is to go into Russian prisons and press-gang a bunch of prisoners.

            Never mind that these aren’t going to be trained soldiers, and so considerable time will have to be spend training them up.

            Ahem. They are a mercenary unit. It is a pay-for-play outfit.

            If they want more men then the place to go a-recruiting is amongst the ex-soldiers who might like to earn a lot of money.

            They come ready-to-rock’n’roll. Their loyalty and commitment is a measurable thing, and it is measured in rubles.

            But jailbirds? Sure, let’s recruit them instead. They are ever-so-much easier to use, and their use guarantees Wagner’s success.

            Honestly, someone’s chain is being pulled, but it ain’t mine.

          • TTG says:

            Yeah, Right,

            The Kremlin last put out their casualty estimate in March 2022. Kyiv never puts out their casualty counts. So we rely on the estimates of others.

            Wagner put out the videos of Prigozhin recruiting among the prison population. He put out the terms of employment and promise of pardons in these videos. It’s delusional to deny Wagner recruited prisoners.

          • Yeah, Right says:

            TTG: “I certainly find the US and NATO numbers more believable than the Kremlin’s numbers.”

            The Kremlin gives out numbers of its own casualties?

            When, exactly?

  5. jim ticehurst.. says:

    It Seems like there are ongoing contradictions of Information and News
    Reports…I Read almost every day How Well The Ukrainians are Doing
    and Reports of Heavy Russian Loss..and then The Z Man is every where ..Getting Every Thing..or Asking For More And Better.. Now a Headliner at G-7..

    Flying Private…With a Credt Card..Bonus..And All you can Eat Macaroni..

    Anyhow.. I Read A Report today on a Website called..

    RUSI…Royal United Services Institute …for Defence a Security Studies..
    Called ” Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of the Invasion
    of Ukraine.” May 20,2023

    https:// static.rusi-org/403-SR-Russian-tactics-web-final.pdf

    It is a Long Report Well Done..It states ampng many other Items that
    Russian Electronic Warfare Systems and Counter Drone Weapons are Taking out
    10,000 Ukrainian Drones aMonth by Decrypting the Communication System
    of the Motorola 256 Bit System..
    JT

    • TTG says:

      jim ticehurst,

      RUSI puts out some good articles, including that one on Russian tactics. I also recommend their article on the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces.

  6. ked says:

    Prig Goz In, claims victory (semi-regularly), then Goz Out. may be inspired by that famed late 20th Century philosopher – Zappa. from one of his most popular (if controversial) works, Dina Moe Hum. “But I gotta get into it to get myself out of it”.

  7. Babeltuap says:

    The jets are less important than the avionics. They could have Phantoms and get the job done with state of the art avionics. Are they getting top tier avionics? I doubt it. Even Israel doesn’t get that. Only the US. Russia though, nobody is holding back on their avionics.

    Regardless it doesn’t matter. Jets are nice to have but nobody is winning this thing with jets. Have to have bodies on the ground. Lots and lots of bodies. We need to start the draft unfortunately. I’d start with all the illegals that just entered then move up to anyone on social media who had Ukraine flags on their handle. From there prisoners and deadbeat dads.

    • Fourth and Long says:

      I don’t know but I’ve been told,
      (i don’t know but I’ve been told),
      That Nancy Pelosi is mighty old,
      (that Nancy Pelosi is mighty old)
      Yer lef, yer lef, yer lef right leff.

      Biden himself is not a young man
      (Biden himself is not a young man),
      And Kamala Harris is part of the plan,
      (And Kamala Harris is part of the plan)
      Yer lef, yer lef, yer lef right lef.

    • Yeah, Right says:

      How will the F-16 fare operating from improvised runways/stretches of highway.

      The Mig-29 can close its air intakes and open some louvres to prevent the engine eating some foreign objects / debris / etc.

      But the F-16? Why, it has a great big vacuum cleaner such a few feet off the ground, ready to hover up anything that is lying on that stretch of tarmac.

      It’s a very impressive aircraft when it can operate from modern military airfields. Airfields were the concrete runways can be swept clear before every sortie.

      But in Ukraine that’s not going to be the case. Attrition on takeoff/landing is going to be horrendous, and the western media is going to blame it on incompetent Ukrainian pilots.

      That will be speaking very ill of the dead, because the real cause will be a very poor design choice on an inappropriate aircraft.

  8. Fourth and Long says:

    Helmer piece centers on the upcoming “Air Defender 23” exercises in June hosted by Germany which will combine forces from 24 nations, including Japan, for over a week. He speculates that it may be a cover for an attack, and quotes sources who say that after the Patriot battery was destroyed, the only thing left for NATO is “the air.” Also interesting remarks about information suppression.
    https://johnhelmer.net/bravado-before-capitulation-will-russian-defeat-of-us-patriot-missile-be-followed-by-ukrainian-f-16-attack-during-the-nato-air-defender-23/

  9. d74 says:

    Perhaps they remain some square feet of rubble in west bakhmut under Ukrainian control. But I do believe that the city is in the hands of the Russians. These are ordinary little events of a unique war, unique because the Russians say and act accordingly that the conquest of the land is not their goal. Clausewitz will be glad to see his precept so well followed, first destroy the army, then capture the ground or install a favorable government.
    It is unlikely that the Ukrainians will come back in force.

    In short, the case is folded. What happens next is all that matters.

  10. leith says:

    Is there any truth to the claim that Prigozhin offered to give Ukraine coordinates of regular Russian Army units if they let his Wagner Group take all of Bakhmut?

    https://www.newsweek.com/prigozhin-russian-troops-ukraine-leaked-documents-1800331

    • Fourth and Long says:

      Pure conjecture on my part but there might be some tricky technique wbereby you scan huge reams of text looking for the precise coordinates you offered. Then you locate the location origin of that text, then you Zap. But I’m missing a huge number of steps. You could also try other things. Like “the martians have given us a counterexample to the Riemann hypothesisComplex.” First you’d leak that martians is code for some other place. That would awaken interest. like I said, complex.

  11. Billy Roche says:

    What happens next after Bakhmut is dead. A post mortem is in order.
    How many Russians died killing Bakhmut
    How many Ukrainians died killing Russians
    Did delaying Bakhmut’s death prevent RM from causing trouble elsewhere. Where?
    Did delaying Bakhmut’s death enable UM to set up offensives elsewhere. Where?
    There’s really nothing else to say or ask.
    Except no killing would’ve happened if Russians d/n insist that Ukrainians belonged to them. People seem to forget the Ukrainian people declared their own “color” revolution in ’91. Their color was independence. I wonder what “color” was most pleasing to the men on Lexington commons that April morning in ’75. Americans got help from the Dutch (trade), Spanish (gold and gunpowder), and French (just about everything). People who want to be free of colonial pricks still need help.

    • Fred says:

      Billy,

      The men on Lexington green didn’t fight for Ukraine. I’d be happy if our own government protected our borders.

      • Billy Roche says:

        The current American gov’t doesn’t believe in borders. Trivial things like your nation’s history, constitution, or justice are but petty annoyances on the road to one world order. You will learn to accept that; and in the fullness of time you will obey.

        • Fred says:

          Billy,

          You are changing your personality by the day. Perhaps all that mask wearing under Covid rules had an adverse affect.

          • Billy Roche says:

            Fred; there are ways to make even misguided patriots like you into obedient servants. So you must never let them know who you are. As to covid I don’t know what to make of it. I am a 76 yr old diabetic w/kidney disease. I have high blood pressure and had a heart attack three years ago. I had covid twice. It was like a very very very bad hangover for two days and I was tired for a week. That was that. I had my three shots (Moderna) as advised and I have no idea if they did any thing to help . But rejoice, Biden says “its all over” and his efforts saved the nation.

        • Fred says:

          Billy,

          ” misguided patriots like you into obedient servants”

          Are you a self-anointed determiner of correctly guided patriots or did someone appoint you to the role of judge of proper guidance and misguidance?

    • Fourth and Long says:

      The Right Respectable Guillaume (Billy) Roche:

      It pains me to exercise my gift of mirth,
      But I was born on planet earth,
      And it’s a dreary place at night,
      And so try not to die of fright.

      Monsieur Roche. Has it occurred to thineself or anyone you know that the real porpoise of Senor Reverend Prigozhin’s maniacally threatening filmed escapades and cursing in front of numerous freshly killed poor young men in their prime of life was to demonstrate to the Russian audiences and over the seas viewers just how different things might be if, say, his nibs was not in the high chair? No? Me neither.

      • Billy Roche says:

        The Two Czars
        There once were two czarist in Moscow
        But only one would Russians allow
        One man had to go, but how to overthrow
        Was something one of them did not know

        Prigozin liked to climb up real high
        On top of dead bodies he would lie
        But friends he had few, and unstable he grew
        He worried he might fall and would die

        Prigozhin sat upon a wall
        Prigohzin had a very great fall
        All Putin’s horses and all Putin’s men
        Refused to put Prigozhin together again.

        Now Vlady was czar of all Russia
        And demanded little Russians kiss his dupa
        But his subjects refused to accept such abuse.
        Putin’s Russia was smaller then before.

        • Fourth and Long says:

          Billy Roche,
          Not quite an immortal masterpiece but really superb, imho. You really nailed it with your concluding line. A small criticism – Tsar is preferable to Czar for at least two reasons: R1: Historical faithfulness to the Cyrillic spelling and R2: Anagrams for “t s a r” which do not mean “huge celestial accretion of cosmic gaseous vapors which radiate with supernatural intensity because gravity crushes it into .. .”

  12. mcohen says:

    The battle for donetsk is finally able to begin

    • TTG says:

      mcohen,

      The battle for Donetsk has been going full on for the last 15 months.

      • mcohen says:

        Agree but first the defenders of donetsk needed to be drawn forward.toretsk is the way.20km sw.that and belgorod

  13. “The Euromaidan could have been avoided if Yukoshenko and Putin didn’t try to subvert the Verkkovna Rada’s approved plan to accept the EU development plan in favor of a Moscow plan. That’s what triggered that revolution. Ukraine already had a colr revolution in 2004-2005, the Orange Revolution.”

    Euromaidan could have been avoided if Nuland and Pyatt did not stir the pot.

    • Billy Roche says:

      Richard; Ukraine had its “color” revolution in ’91. B/f that they had a “color” revolution in ’17. Their “color” was independence blue and yellow and Ukrainians were fighting like hell for it way b/f the Maiden, Nuland, 2014, Minsk, and 2/22/22. Ukraine has fought Russia for independence for over 100 years. This is not a war caused by stupid diplomats getting in the way of the future. This is a war for Ukrainian independence over Russian Empire and it has not changed since 1917.

  14. Fourth and Long says:

    Our listening devices located on all continents and beneath the 7 seas have output a snippet of today’s early chatter. The apparatus they comprise only a small part of also controls robots which compose web pages in any of 187 languages (including secret undecipherable ones) so as to be able to plausibly deny that these intercepts were obtained covertly. See texts provided below at link. We kindly provide translations and brief explanations for only a handful of the comments, which, you should be aware of, we are perfectly capable of fabricating for our nefarious ulterior purposes. TTG’s sources who acquainted us with the Orca Lady Gladys may better comprehend the meaning of what Kolja Sergeev had to say, if there is any.
    https://tinyurl.com/3nn5mwaj

    Britain was afraid of the “catastrophic scenario” because of Putin’s weapons
    Daily Mail: Russian Navy submarines can completely disrupt the UK infrastructure.

    Panorama Horizontovich: What if the Americans do it to blame everything on us later? Britain is still not a tenant in the future. With the departure of Queen Elizabeth, the British program exhausted itself.

    (to which) Black Square replied:
    I agree with you. Especially since this oak with axe Charles (Karl) is an unpromising figure.

    Svetik Ru said (using his improvised acronym in Cyrillic – ВБ – for the British War agencies):
    Fairy tales. If the WB had been afraid of something, it would not have supplied weapons to Ukraine, knowing that there may be consequences.

    Kolja Sergeev said:
    “And if you were smarter with me, you would have done business a long time ago” © Matroskin. What prevents you from damaging a couple of cables and dumping everything on two tourist rebels from Zimbabwe?
    —————
    We interrupt to add this suggestion from HumorMe the Humerous Advanced Artificial Chatbox who we are training to recognize jokes:
    ‘Let’s hear it for the commenter who thought up the handle “Panorama Horizontovich!”‘
    —————–
    Pssst. (Whispered)
    What!
    Has our AI Chatbox HumorMe received the compiled function libraries for the “In case Russian Humor Chatbox AI is detected” If Then code in his program yet?

  15. Al says:

    TGG, Reuters reporting that Ukraine forces now in process of surrounding Baklmut. What’s the possibility of entrapment of Russian forces there?

    • TTG says:

      Al,

      The Ukrainians are not surrounding Bakhmut, not even close. But they have reduced the salients that once existed north and south of the city. They are forcing the Russians to redeploy forces if they want to keep Bakhmut..

  16. mcohen says:

    If the Russians want to link Crimea to the rasht-astara rail link through donetsk they must pay for the lease of Crimea.
    Transporting Ukrainian wheat by rail east must not be free

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