By Robert Willmann
Both reports and rumors are swirling around confirmed leaks in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines running from Russia to Germany across the Baltic Sea. Although natural gas is not flowing through the pipelines at this time, if the leaking spots are bad enough to prevent normal flow from restarting for an extended period of time, that condition could cause increased energy problems for Germany and Europe–
A Reuters news article says that a seismology center in Sweden detected explosions in the area of the pipeline leaks–
The pipelines are caught up in the political, money-making, and other maneuvers involved in the matter of Russia and Ukraine; sanctions against Russia; and the desires of other countries, businesses, and groups with respect to the Russia-Ukraine issues.
If the seismic observations from Sweden and Denmark are correct, the nasty possibility of sabotage is introduced, and if that is true, someone is trying to up the ante.
Cui bono? Not Russia, the US or its lapdog the UK? Who knows? But it means that Europe is screwed, and we face not a Recession, but another Great Depression. This is not good for anyone,
Cui bono? It’s good for Gazprom since they can invoke force majeure to avoid any liabilities for failing to honor contracts related to Nord Stream 1. They could easily have sent bomb-laden pigs through the pipes — no need for divers, submarines, or James Bond.
Given how Russian chauvinists on social media have avoided commenting on the Lyman encirclement or the farcical mobilization, but jumped on this story to push Biden-Nuland conspiracies, it should be obvious who benefits from such an act.
why do stories about Biden/Nuland have to be labeled “conspiracies” that are being “pushed”? They may indeed be as you describe them. But for the moment, interesting, on point, quotes, from both of the individuals in question, on the subject of the pipelines, were offered. Those quotes should be examined in an unbias manner. then we go, if anywhere, from there.
Three breaks in widely separated locations are reported and the conclusion is most definitely sabotage. The question is: “Who did it?” The simplest explanation is we did because we have most to gain.
Water depth is reported as 70 metres which is well inside commercial technical diving capabilities of virtually any nation. Submarine delivery of the wrecking crew probably limits capability to U.S. and British navies.
For that depth you don’t need a submarine. A commercial submersible drone, packed with explosives would do.
Well . . . the problem is which “we”? There are many separate “we’s” in play.
“Russia” seems doubtful to me because the RussiaGov still hopes in the long run to be selling lucrative amounts of gas to EUrope. I don’t think the RussiaGov would like to be locked into having China as its only customer, because that raises the danger that at some point in the future China will set the price and Russia can like it or lump it. And that price might be political. It might be . . . ” We won’t buy your gas anymore unless you let us settle a hundred million Chinese in Siberia.”
So if not Russia, then who? There will be a theory for every taste in theories. They will all be aired and offered in due course. They will include such possibilities as false flag, false-false flag, double-triple-reverse false flag, etc. There won’t be any “traceable attributionable” parts and pieces of any bomb-drone to be found down there.
Because even if there “were”, they could have been sold from cutout to cutout to cutout on the way to final use.
Must be coincidental that the ‘Baltic Pipe’ was inaugurated by Norwegian and Danish authorities this week.
Older people in Poland will recall the Gleiwitz incident when the Russians soon blow up the Baltic Pipe in ‘retaliation’.
Later, there will be an incident at Novorossiysk which shuts down CPC exports from Kazakhstan.
Let’s list our “top three” military commanders of-all-time. There are so many to choose from: Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar, Napoleon Bonaparte, but I have to squeeze in Hernán Cortés de Monroy y Pizarro Altamirano, just where to put…
Whoever did this, and I do believe it was intentional, has definitely burnt the ships on the beach. The Europe – Russia energy connection has been severed once and for all.
Last August, Louise Mensch published a substack piece entitled “Silent War: Is Stuxnet Attacking Russia?” This one is available without subscription from her twitter account.
https://dearmrputin.substack.com/p/is-stuxnet-attacking-russia
She contends that this is the work of CYBERCOM as was a series of explosions last year affecting various Gazprom projects. Maybe this is a conspiracy theory or maybe it’s informed speculation. I find it plausible although it’s wouldn’t necessarily be CYBERCOM. It could be our version of loosely sanctioned or totally unsanctioned patriotic hackers.
Someone in Poland is gloating.
https://www.unz.com/isteve/this-seems-concerning/
“The Europe – Russia energy connection has been severed once and for all.”
Really? How long does it take to replace a few hundred feet of pipeline? Is the UN EPA going hold up a permit? Oh, wait, we can use that pipeline that runs through Ukraine…….. but not fix this stuff, because what tariff is paid to whom for a line running through the Baltic.
Fred,
Germany does not need enemies as long as we have “allies” like the USA and Poland.
I’m very curious how Neocon propaganda will spin this, the only reason why I still visit this website from time to itme.
What stops the EUropean Nations from all defecting from NATO, abrogating it and declaring it null and void? Some nations of EUrope could set up their own North East Atlantic Treaty Organization (NEATO) and exclude from it any countries they want to.
No America. No Canada. No Poland. No Ukraine. Hey, NEATO!
You could do that any time you want to. So why don’t you want to?
Because having the ‘Five Eyes’ as declared enemies would be even more dangerous?
TTG?
Admitting up-front I haven’t a clue regarding Ms. Mensch’s bona fides I regardless “hae me doots” (as dear ol’ Papaw used to say) whether the fairly recently stood up CYBERCOM would be up for that sort of thing.
Evidence (or, Evidently as the case might be):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlY-MJVotVo
Cyberops ran out of the Pentagon – admittedly those the public has/is been observed – don’t seem to be achieving much success.
JK/AR,
I “hae me doots” as well, but CYBERCOM is fully capable of conducting major strikes of this magnitude. I’ve been involved in supporting various DoD cyber actions since the late 90s. They’ve been building the capabilities for these things, and defending against these things, for a long time.
Don’t know about the claims in the linked video, but I also “hae me doots” about that one. Any kind of PSYOP like that would not be from CYBERCOM. They’re two totally different lines of work.
has definitely burnt the ships on the beach.
——-
Superlatively well and epigrammatically said.
“And then went down to the ship, set keel to breakers, forth on the godly sea,”
– Ezra Pound, The Cantos.
That settled it for me. Pound was a traitor. “to the ship” when he could have used “to ships, forth on the godly sea”? Terrible failure as a poet. Traitor to the language. To the ship? You can’t be serious, Hugh Mauberly. My guess? Not even a man of letters. I’m serious. Draw your own conclusion. I’ve drawn mine.
TTG,
I stand corrected
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2004/02/27/reagan-approved-plan-to-sabotage-soviets/a9184eff-47fd-402e-beb2-63970851e130/
Delivering “attitude adjustments” where Soviet/Russian pipelines are concerned does seem to be, as you put it
“They’ve been building the capabilities for these things, and defending against these things, for a long time.”
I recognize that now. Thanks.
My money is on nations which wish to close the door on a German-Russian deal.
Some thinly veiled threats from President Biden and Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1490792461979078662
“Pres. Biden: “If Russia invades…then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.”
Reporter: “But how will you do that, exactly, since…the project is in Germany’s control?”
Biden: “I promise you, we will be able to do that.” ”
https://twitter.com/StateDept/status/1486818088016355336
““If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.””
Turn left at the third rattlesnake on the left. Proceed to the den of scorpions under the volcanic rock. There, would be found the letter of marque.
I doubt that we will soon know who did it, but I am sure the speculations will be entertaining.
This is from Practical Engineering – this guy tries to stay away from politics and just focus on Engineering- it gives a good overview of the Nord 2 project (and some of the topics of controversy)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzibtVSamrY
KjHeart,
Excellent presentation. Seeing how two specially prepared sections of the pipeline needed to be raised to the surface to connect them, one can now imagine what it would take to repair damaged sections. It would probably take several months and an investment that no one is willing to make.
TTG – I saw this back when it first came out – this engineer is really good at explaining some extremely complex projects –
I almost felt like adding some ominous background music because of how things have progressed on the world stage since the video was first released..
“That would be an unimaginably reckless act. That would be the kind of thing you would do if you wanted to start a nuclear war, it would be insane” – Tucker Carlson
Barbara Ann,
Whose son in ambassador to Poland? Whose other son was volunteer advisor to Ukraine in the ’90s and is now on the Atlantic Council? I wonder if we can tune in to MSNBC and hear their sister’s opion of the risk of expanded war. This act couldn’t be reckless as it looks like the kind of thing dreamed up by the same folks who gave us two decades in Iraq and restructured that country into a “democracy”.
NS2 was filled with pressurized gas & ready to go, but no gas was actually delivered before sanctions were enacted. The pipeline “has remained pressurized but idle ever since, serving as a 750-mile-long storage tank for some $350 million worth of Russian natural gas. ”
IMO, this rules out Russian sabotage. They are certainly capable of False Flag ops, but the cost of this – to Russia – makes this implausible. Not only have they lost their biggest carrot (save Germany/Europe from cold winter & loss of energy-intensive indusrty), but also a LOT of valuable gas.
Source: Maritime Executive, which I follow on FB to keep tabs on international shipping issues. I don’t recall ever seeing pro- or anti-Russian propaganda there. (I hope this link works; if not, try copy/paste or Goog)
https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/large-gas-leak-from-nord-stream-2-pipeline-prompts-warning-to-shipping?fbclid=IwAR0kZjKImh0luxdi9rSDr2dUwcX6xw_ECuISz4ApQskYVapiYhwplhFgBpU
“The first building to be hit was the barracks in Buynaksk housing Russian soldiers and their families. It was a nondescript five-story building perched on the outskirts of town, and when the enormous truck bomb went off late on the night of September 4, 1999, the floors pancaked onto each other until the building was reduced to a pile of burning rubble. In that rubble were the bodies of sixty-four people—men, women, and children.”
— None Dare Call It a Conspiracy: Who was behind the 1999 Moscow apartment bombings that accelerated Vladimir Putin’s rise to power?
https://www.gq.com/story/moscow-bombings-mikhail-trepashkin-and-putin
Putin rose to power when Yeltsin emailed Bill Clinton and asked for permission to hand the country over to Putin and Clinton gave the thumbs up. Yeltsin, with US help and encouragement, had already consolidated all power in Russia in the office of the president.
Apparently American ships in the area;
https://southfront.org/us-ships-suspected-of-sabotage-attack-on-nord-stream-pipelines/
So either we did it, or someone did a good job of making it look like us.
Obviously American and English media will be pointing the fingers at Russia, but the Europeans will have to delve a lot deeper into the cognitive dissonance to avoid the conclusion it really is about keeping Europe as a vassal state and not letting it get too close to the growing Asian networks.
I noticed the morning New Zealand said no more weapons to Ukraine, presumably because they don’t have what’s requested, but it seems a bit coincidental.
It’s interesting you mentioned New Zealand. For a while now I’ve thought that when Putin announces one of his thinly veiled nuclear threats he should let the world know that he won’t even bother with targeting other nations strategic nuclear forces. Instead he will target target the safe houses of the 1000 Wealthiest westerners. Places like the South island of New Zealand, Ecuador, Argentina etcetera. As Friendly as the Kiwi’s are, I don’t think they’d appreciate being targeted for destruction so a wealthy American can f****** politics at home but escape there to his deer farm when it all goes to s***
History has given the Russians a few more reality checks, than it’s given Americans. Especially the technocrats.
Reading further into it, my money is on the Poles, piggybacking on the NATO maneuvers that just concluded. Even the Americans are not stupid enough to do it when all their ships are right there, but they are stupid enough to think their erstwhile allies are all taking the same orders from Washington and not keep a very close eye on them.
Meanwhile the Poles hate the Germans as much as they do the Russians, so cutting that pipeline would be at the top of the list.
Mr. Merryman,
“Apparently American ships in the area”
Actually Sir, no apparently about it. From last June:
https://seapowermagazine.org/baltops-22-a-perfect-opportunity-for-research-and-resting-new-technology/
“In support of BALTOPS, U.S. Navy 6th Fleet partnered with U.S. Navy research and warfare centers to bring the latest advancements in unmanned underwater vehicle mine hunting technology to the Baltic Sea to demonstrate the vehicle’s effectiveness in operational scenarios.”
“Experimentation was conducted off the coast of Bornholm, Denmark, with participants from Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific, Naval Undersea Warfare Center Newport, and Mine Warfare Readiness and Effectiveness Measuring all under the direction of U.S. 6th Fleet Task Force 68.”
“BALTOPS is an ideal location for conducting mine hunting experimentation due to the region’s unique environmental conductions such as low salinity and varying bottom types. It is also critical to evaluate emerging mine hunting UUV technology in the Baltic due to its applicability with allied and partner nations.”
Of course at this point, and given the obvious “unknowns” all anybody can say about ‘who benefits’ versus ‘who is responsible’ is purely speculation. As well either of the propositions can only be separate at present.
But with the option of ‘blackmailing the EU’ Putin had heretofore now wiped off the sand-table I’m tempted to speculate will [fairly] quickly reveal whatever remains. Interesting-er times now seems to me.
Grab the popcorn.
And a blanket.
Maybe a few cans of soup.
JK/AR –
BALTOPS has been an ongoing joint NATO exercise since 1985. The 2022 BALTOPS EX included 14 different navies, 12 from NATO plus Sweden and Finland. It ended on 17 June and during the two weeks of the exercise they were shadowed the whole time by Russian Navy ships.
Leith,
You may recall … I “seem to recall” my putting on here I’m former [US] Navy? At any rate yes, I’m aware BALTOPS is a longstanding exercise. Heck even the US Naval Institute reports on it:
https://news.usni.org/2022/05/31/u-s-warships-now-in-the-baltic-ahead-of-baltops-as-sweden-finland-move-through-nato-membership-process
As does Commander Salamander
https://cdrsalamander.blogspot.com/
The difference, lately at least, is that just now both iterations of Nordstream have gone kablooie just as winter seems to be renewing its acquaintance with for instance
https://www.accuweather.com/en/de/berlin/10178/current-weather/178087
As, meanwhile our Dodderer-In-Chief, doesn’t seem to have a clue how to exit stage right
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vdDHs3k1rQ
Nevermind how to properly run a European war.
Leith?
You find all this confidence inspiring? As far as I – and my pocket book – is concerned me, not so much.
https://www.quora.com/Why-did-Henry-Kissinger-once-say-To-be-an-enemy-of-the-US-is-dangerous-but-to-be-a-friend-is-fatal
Leith
Perfect cover to plant explosives. Did the Russians watch idly while the USS Kearsage was operating in early September within 50 miles of the site of the explosions?
https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1574758898086694912
A “good job” would not be that hard to do, would it? Just place bombs down there months ahead of time and wait until the ships of whomever you want to cast the blame onto are in the area, and then set off the bombs.
Well Different Clue, and hazarding to paraphrase (albeit in wildly alternate universes) Bill Clinton – “A “good job” would not be that hard to do, would it?”
It depends on what the definition of “A good job” is.
(*Fred – Before you just swing into action as I’ve straight-manned for you ‘blue-dress’ “think about the children.”)
Having myself Mr. Diff’rent Clue some slight experience with USN battle groups – looks to me like the
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Kearsarge_(LHD-3)
Would have been the unit hoisted the BG Admiral’s flag which, leads me to think – opinion – had ‘an adversary nation’ attempt to do that “good job” as you posit, tried to do that, that adversary would have met with some difficulties.
(Apologies for the sentence structure – my back is giving me fits)
At any rate – I would expect an LHD in the Baltic post 24 FEB 22 to be escorted/assisted by a fairly formidable bunch of ‘detection/early warning’ assets.
Put in its most simple terms – “Would not be that hard to do, would it?” – It depends.
As they say, easier said than done.
Though not a lot of adults left to police the situation.
DC,
Apparently the Swedes found a submersible with explosives near a pipeline in their territorial waters in 2015.
If they didn’t say whose submersible they thought it was, is that because they couldn’t figure out whose it was? Or because they felt the identity of the people who put it there was a secret which has to be kept?
Next month is the 60th anniversary of the Cuban missile crisis. Dmitry Trenin (a member of the Russian International Affairs Council) has written an article for RT subtitled “The erosion of deterrence has left us sleepwalking into big trouble”. It includes the following passage:
His views accord with my own, that the mutually acknowledged understanding that kept us all alive in the era of MAD has either been forgotten or is now being willfully ignored. 60 years ago both sides understood the rules. Proxy wars on the margins were within the rules, direct conflict or anything in which either side’s existence was threatened (e.g. missiles in Cuba) was not. Both sides appreciated this would end in only one way. In went to the brink when the rules were broken in 1962 and JFK and Khrushchev eventually reached a deal which allowed both sides to climb down and save face. And yes, the saving of face is a vital aspect of the rules.
The destruction of the NS1 & NS2 pipelines was clearly calculated to make it more difficult if not impossible for Germany to pursue a negotiated end to this conflict. Someone has deliberately smashed away the rungs below us on the escalation ladder. Who in their right mind would do such a thing? Well perhaps people of the mindset that can write stuff like this:
Robert Kagan wrote this in his article a couple of months ago entitled “The Price of Hegemony, Can America Learn to Use Its Power?”. So there you have it folks. The risk is extraordinarily small. Putin and the rest of the Kremlin leadership is lying about how they see this conflict as existential for Russia. We can all relax, the Cold War rules no longer apply and the US and NATO can inflict a humiliating defeat on the only nation of earth with the capability to destroy us all. I feel so much better.
https://www.rt.com/news/563486-lessons-of-cuban-missile-crisis/
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-04-06/russia-ukraine-war-price-hegemony
Thanks for that reference. There is an interview with Kage Man on YouTube that is the most frightening thing I’ve ever seen. I knew someone overly well for years whose voice, visage and overall body language and demeanor was to me indistinguishable, also Harvard, also with roots precisely from whence Kagemam hails from. The person was exceedingly eminent in his field and thought he was right about everything. What his brilliance and insight did to large numbers of trusting and unsuspecting people is bad enough. That his own beautiful daughter destroyed herself following his advice is already well known and so pathetic it’s beyond laughable or weeping over and in Woke Ivy league America it’s not even noticed as unusual. Thanks three times. And guess what? You’re right.
You’re dealing with evil beyond normal or even well above normal capacity for people to appreciate.
Barbara Ann,
I’ll go out on the “The Golden Bough” and say that there is more afoot. Where has there ever flown clean, reliable, reasonable information? I would say, well you know me, we live in a Magician’s World. Fantasy, Simulacra, are not recently developed concepts. You are too good to be lost. Welcome to the mind war.
https://globalaffairs.ru/articles/vernite-strah/
Don’t know if anyone noticed the article above. Recent. An interview with Dmitri Trenin. Title: Bring Back the Fear. (Верните страх!). In Russian.
Related:
https://www.rt.com/news/563660-merkel-putin-words-seriously/
Angela Merkel broke with expectations during a Kohl memorial to say that Putin’s words should be taken seriously. She knew him and spoke the language. She could conceivably be in contact with him, I don’t know.
Similar to the argument in the article at the first link above, also by Dmitri Trenin, but in very carefully worded English –
Dmitry Trenin: Russia and the US still have time to learn the lessons of the Cuban missile crisis and prevent a nuclear war
https://www.rt.com/news/563486-lessons-of-cuban-missile-crisis/
US, Russia trade threats of nuclear war as referendums in East Ukraine end
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/09/28/lpdv-s28.html
Those of you blessed with my towering maladies will have little trouble understanding how perusal of that article led me to my new name for Mr Dmitri Trenin to call the United States. And I even figured out the secret name of our island petting zoo in the upper reaches of Stratford on Avon Ladies and that river whose name is pronounced with a lisp, the Thames.
I’ve already arranged for Mister Trenin to see it, I’m fortunate.
Our real name is: L e m c i t u s i u t h
And the name of our petting zoo is L e m c i t u k i u t h? Nice try, I thought so myself at first, but realized it was quite correct.
The name of our petting zoo is: L e m c i t u k i u t w e m s.
I hope that the esteemed Mr Dmitri Trenin will understand. I bet he will. It’s just what the doctor ordered, so to speak.
Are they the legendary lands of Lemuria or the people called Lemurians, which we believe Francis Bacon, Isaac Newton, Plato, Aristotle and the Pythagoreans spoke of and possibly described in coded languages written on undecipherable scrolls buried long ago in lost arks and tombs? In caverns Carlsbadian? If you think about it, you will see that it’s more than possible, it’s becoming likely.
——-
Pronunciation Key.
Usi uth – pronounced as in us see uth, but with no pause between Us and see. Think Ussi Uth. Like the antiquated Hussy Uth, sorry, Fussy Uth.
Uki ut wems. – Uki rhymes with lucky. Ut rhymes with Tut and nut and but. Wems is pronounced as written.
Try it with your friends.
Are you Usi Uth, or Uki Ut Wems?
I’m Usi Uthish on papa’s side and one half Uki Ut Wemish on Mama’s, I think.
And you? Me? I’m full on Uki Ut Wem, or so I was told.
Do you know the tune to God Bless Lem Cit Usi Uth? Is it similar to the melody of God Save the Queen of the Lem Cit Uki Ut Wems? Yes. And Yes, said the hybrid Lem Cit of both Usi Uth and Uki Ut Wem.
—–
Still confused? Start with a Level, every time you plan to build a lasting structure.
Might I add, that if our leaders and educators and thus our people knew their proper names, that things might improve permanently. We of Lemcitusiuth and Lemcitukiutwems, salute you Fourth and Long, and thank you very much. And the whole world owes you a hearty handshake.
I wonder what Putin’s next move is.
Maybe he’ll appear on TV and give some of his clever speeches. The masses of fanboys will be filled with joy that their idol has made yet another 64D chess move.
Yet, while he was being clever, someone just went out there and blew up his precious pipelines.
He is a lawyer, not a brawler.
Was it the neocon response to the referendums? Z-bigs crew of russian haters? Putin and a false flag attack?
According to the commentary at Southfront, it was the jews that run America that did it.
looks like everyone in Europe will have to pick a side. As I tell my Europeans friends, if you don’t want to be ‘weak’, build up your armed forces. Be prepared to pay $20k for health insurance and $30k for college if you want your kids educated.
That is the price I/we pay for American might. It maybe cheaper for Europeans to pay more for energy.
Who hates fossil fuels more than any petty nation states? Eco-terrorists.
How many other “accidents” in energy production facilities to we need before we connect the dots? Particularly if this could be pulled off by a simple underwater drone action. Though I am captivated by the idea of explosive laden pigs running amok inside this pipeline. Or exploding pangolins, since they are now a well-proven destruction vector.
I am only surprised there is no mention of the Bad Orangeman whose alleged ego is so vast, that of course he did this to prove he was right when he warned Germany about Nordstream dependence and got only bemused Deutscher eye rolls in response.
Deap,
Wouldn’t even need to use a drone. The pipeline location is carefully marked on charts so trawlers and such don’t drag anything over it, and trawlers have bottom scanning ability to spot it, as do several other sorts of commercial fishermen. Just 70 meters deep? Placing charges right on top of it would be a piece of cake for any of the guys from Deadliest Catch. No need for anyone’s sophisticated naval assets.
Are you saying possibly speculators on futures, options and insurance exchanges not to mention stock and bond markets pulled it off with a little help from various actors we know of such as various international private security contractors who have more people in total than most three countries together?
I thought so.
My favorite idea about the Tory monsters borrowing $500 billion (from themselves and their friends) to “cut taxes” involves buying something else or paying for something else which won’t make it into the pailee diapers.
Do you know of any ecoterrorsts who have the functional and operational ability to bomb pipelines a couple of hundred feet under the sea surface? If you know of any ecoterrorist groups with that kind of ability, this would be a good place to say who they are.
Also, putting that much methane into the atmosphere all at once would not be ecoterrorist. It would be econihilist. Do you have any econihilist groups to name and suggest to us?
See above Clue, it could have been just the guys from the Time Bandit out of Dutch Harbor on a crab run. Or their Baltic equivalents, on a cod run. Damn Chinese fishing boats are now everywhere.
Different Clue, Fourth, etc..
I’m saying anybody with access to a decent sized fishing vessel could have managed it. I made no mention of ecoterrorists, stock brokers and such. If I were to guess I would say someone that hates both Germans and Russians. Heck of a lot of folks like that around.
Anyone seen Greta Thunberg lately? Was her hair wet.
Causes – Theory 1: The Russkies were trying to destroy the Norwegian/Polish Pipeline? But they made a mistake as it runs extremely close to the Nordstream pipes. US Navy has been actively searching for Russian subs after the explosion. A P-8A land based fixed wing subhunter started circling the area soon after. An MH60R helo from a US destroyer anchored in Gdnyia Poland has also been sniffing for subs near the pipelines. Theory 2: Putin destroyed his own pipeline deliberately similar to what Saddam Hussein did to those 700 oil rigs he burned back in ’91. Simplifies breaking the GazProm contract with Europe. Plus vengeance. Theory 3: Stuxnet, or more likely Son-of-Stuxnet. If so it could have been anybody, including non-govermental affiliated hackers.
Effects – Short Term: Russkies are calling for a UN Security Council meeting on the subject. They will try to pin the tail on Uncle Sam. Longer Term: More fracking. More LNG terminals and more LNG ships sailing the trade routes, not safe IMHO.
Biggest question is what if anything will happen to TurkStream, the Black Sea pipeline?
Leith,
The Russians don’t know where their own pipeline is? Sure; and they used their own commandos, who haven’t been seen on the battlefield, to do it. Out of vengeance of course, because Putin is just like Saddam.
What’s their motivation? Rather than having some leverage to get Germany or others to stop supporting Ukraine they blow up their own stuff, rather than just leaving it turned off? That doesn’t sound likely at all.
Fred –
Both Nordstream 1 and 2 were already dead to Germany. So Putin wanted to split the US/FRG alliance, or rekindle bad blood between Poland and Germany. In any case the Nordstreams’ destruction will be used to justify further Russian escalation.
Russia’s Navy and before it the USSR has long had dedicated Seabed Sabotage units. The only country in the world to have such. Yes, the USN could do it as you know well, probably much more than I. But in my admittedly non-Naval experience USN assets are more multi-functional and not specifically allocated for undersea sabotage of cables and pipelines. I admit to being on shaky ground there, and will be glad to be corrected by those in the know. From what I understand we are more into gathering intel than sabotage. Does NURO still tap undersea cables a la the USS Parche?
Leith,
A pretty good primer on the subject can be had here:
https://www.amazon.com/Blind-Mans-Bluff-Submarine-Espionage-ebook/dp/B0089EMLGK?&linkCode=sl1&tag=httpbayoure09-20&linkId=6102ea6130c95789799bc85175c0cdb1&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_tl
Can’t say it’s the “whole kit and kaboodle” but it is pretty good reading.
Leith
And we should just ignore that fact that Brandon and the Nuland creature explicitly threatened to “end” NS2 back in January/February? In legal terms this means the USG is very clearly prime suspect, with the means, motive and opportunity. Perhaps Anne Applebaum’s husband’s tweet thanking the US for the dastardly deed was clever Russian IO. Sure, it could have been the Russian’s or even Martians, but Occam’s razor would not suggest that as our working hypothesis.
I also have to commend your logic that a pipeline not in active use is “dead” and therefore fair game for demolition by a third party. Who the heck do these Germans think they are deciding who to source their energy from anyhow?
Leith,
A lot of countries have the means. Motive is something else entirely. If you watch what the EU leadership has already done to Poland, and now threatens Italy with, it doesn’t look like Russia had to blow up anything to create a split between Germany and anyone, they are doing that themselves.
JK/AR – Thanks. I read that ‘Blind Man’s Bluff’ book years ago when it first came out. As I recollect it covered cable tapping incidents and other intel ops in the ’70s and maybe ’80s. Is there now a newer, updated version?
Barbara Ann – Radek Sikorski’s thank you note to the US could have been done to shift blame away from Poland. Or other reasons, perhaps he jumped to conclusions just as Tucker did. What Biden said about stopping Nordstream way back when, he had already accomplished prior to the pipeline explosions. There was no need for him to blow up the pipelines and blow up US/FRG relations or endanger NATO solidarity.
Fred – Yes, a lot of countries have the means. But only Russia has a fleet of special mission submarines dedicated to Seabed Warfare. And lately Putin has been increasing assets that are fully dedicated to undersea sabotage. The VMF constantly exercises that capability. The capability to cut undersea cables is a pretty big strategic advantage, as Tidewater has been telling us for years. And that is doubly so for damaging or neutralizing undersea pipelines. Could the US do it better? Probably. But our assets in that realm are multi-mission and more dedicated to intel collection.
If I’m wrong so be it. But for now those three theories I mentioned above in my comment yesterday are my considered opinion and I’m sticking to them until ironclad evidence shows otherwise.
Saddam Hussein set Kuwait’s oil wells on fire, not his own. He was illegally sucking out oil from Kuwait’s deposits, which started the war in the first place – if he could not exploit them, he wanted to make sure no one could.
Plus leaving an expensive mess for the US to clean up after rescuing Kuwait was an added bonus. Salting the earth so no enemy crops can grow seems to be a war time thing. Instead Hussain just mismanaged his own rich Iraqi oil fields with such shoddy management, any promised access to vast new oil supplies never came to pass.
At least, that is the way I remember it.
All,
I realize some of my above might tempt one to conclude ol’ JK has come down on the “We [US] did it” side but the fact of that matter is, I simply do not know.
I did mention “who benefits?” you’ll recall.
And TTG is aware of another site I place store by, Aesop’s place:
(A heads up salty language advisory is in order:
https://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2022/09/occams-razor-1-usual-suspects-0.html
Jk/Ar,
Aesop has at least gotten off the Covid crusade. Russia already had leverage over Germany and other EU states by leaving the gas off. Blowing up his own pipeline didn’t change that, it eliminated the option of EU member states to cut a deal with Russia. The neocons have a huge motivation to prevent that. So does Poland.
Fred,
You’re right of course. I would imagine when the news came down everybody manning the monitors in ISW’s headquarters stood and cheered like a moonshot had just taken place.
And I can see the Visegrad Group likewise (do they still call themselves that?).
And, at least there is that too.
And lastly, maybe we can find out who in the heck that ‘John Jordan’ feller is Colonel Lang’s got up as the latest – as of 0732 CST – post.
Never heard of the guy myself – although he bears some resemblance to John Schindler.