What is Putin planning for May 9th?

The Azovsteel plant

“Ukraine’s defense ministry posted a list of more than 200 high-ranking Russian military officials who have been sent to Mariupol to monitor the security situation. 

Officials have said that Putin will use the parade as an attempt to prove his military success in eastern Ukraine even though brutal fighting continues in the region. 

Putin last month claimed victory over Mariupol despite Russia’s inability to completely take the city. 

Fighting continues from the Ukrainian resistance’s final stronghold in Mariupol under the Azovstal steel plant where an estimated 200 civilians and soldiers remain trapped.

Ukrainian soldiers have refused to surrender and concerns have increasingly mounted that Russian forces will completely wipe out the remaining survivors by the May 9 parade.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a late-night address that he was continuing to push the Russians to honor a ceasefire and allow the evacuation of the remaining Ukrainians holed up. 

“We are also working on diplomatic options to save our military who still remain at Azovstal,” he said. “Influential mediators are involved. Influential states.”

Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said Friday that 50 women, children and elderly civilians were evacuated from the tunnels. 

But dozens more were unable to be rescued due to Russia’s continued assault on the plant – despite repeated claims from Moscow that it would permit humanitarian evacuation efforts. “

Russia moves forces to Mariupol ahead of ‘Victory Day’ parade, officials work to rescue trapped troops | Fox News

“Ukrainian troops, emboldened by sophisticated weapons and long-range artillery supplied by the West, went on the offensive Friday against Russian forces in the northeast, seeking to drive them back from two key cities as the war plunged more deeply into a grinding, town-for-town battle.

After weeks of intense fighting along a 300-mile-long front, neither side has been able to achieve a major breakthrough, with one army taking a few villages one day, only to lose just as many in the following days. In its latest effort to reclaim territory, the Ukrainian military said that “fierce battles” were being waged as it fought to retake Russia-controlled areas around Kharkiv in the northeast and Izium in the east.

The stepped-up combat came as the White House announced on Friday that President Biden would meet virtually on Sunday with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and the leaders of the G7, which includes Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States.”

Using Weapons From the West, Ukraine Seeks to Drive Back Russian Troops – The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Comment: Anything is possible as VP tries to generate a bandwagon effect. I would not rule out the possibility of a small tacnuke strike on the Azovsteel plant as an “example.” pl

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127 Responses to What is Putin planning for May 9th?

  1. TTG says:

    I doubt a tacnuke strike strike would do any good. Those tunnels under Azovstal were built to withstand ICBM strikes. It sounds like Putin is planning a Potemkin village on steroids in his attempt to woo the Russian people.

    • Bill Roche says:

      And what will Putin’s wooing msg be?
      “The mighty Russian military you see displayed b/f you has destroyed the last elements of Nazis in Ukraine. Nazis, who continued to threaten Holy Mother Russia right up until yesterday are gone. Like many patriots, my own family bore harm from Nazis and when I saw them at our very gates I could not ignore their threat. As we celebrate this victory of 1945 today, Holy Russia is safe, and Ukraine has been taught a hard lesson. Only the humanity of the Russian people have allowed it to survive. Now, to prevent any further violence, we offer genuine peace talks with the Ukrainian gov’t. The gov’t of Iceland has graciously offered to host these talks. It is time for the Ukrainians to put down the sword of war and come to the table of peace.”
      Sumpin like that? Or does Putin really want the whole enchilada (I think he does).

    • Mark Logan says:

      It would work IF it’s a ground or shallow underground burst. However it would be a very dirty blast which would render the massive economic asset of one of the world’s largest steel plants useless for the foreseeable future. It does seem unlikely.

      An obvious tactic would be to flood the bunker with tear gas. It’s a mystery to me why the Russians haven’t done that yet. Perhaps that’s a May 7-8 plan.

      • Stefan says:

        Or they could do what the Saudis did when extremists held up in the underground sections of the Grand Mosque in Mecca. Flood it and add high voltage electricty to it.

      • Fred says:

        “…massive economic asset of one of the world’s largest steel plants useless for the foreseeable future. ”

        It is already useless for the foreseeable future.

      • Leith says:

        Mark Logan –

        More likely FSB Spetznaz teams may try to pump Kolokol into Azovstal’s ventilation sustem. Kolokol is the Fentanyl derivative aerosol they used used 20 years ago on the Dubrovka Theater in Moscow that killed 40 Chechen terrorists and 130 hostages. Or perhaps they have modified it by now. Not sure if it is heavier than air?

  2. John Minnerath says:

    Even a small limited use of a tacnuke is a seriously dangerous thing to ponder.

  3. joe90 says:

    Why is every one so stupid to assume the Russians don´t have a general staff? Why do people assume it just one big man? Does that really work anywhere else?

    • TTG says:

      joe90,

      What orifice did you pull that from. They have a MOD and military district commanders as well. So what?

      • joe90 says:

        Why if you accept they have a general staff, you keep on saying its about Putin? Do you think they don`t have a plan? Oh its about the big man, well maybe but have you ever considered he may delegate to those who have competence.

        • TTG says:

          joe90,

          Putin has a lot to say about what happens in Russia, far more than Biden does in the US. Still, both stand for their countries, for all they do and fail to do. The ultimate responsibility for those successes and failures is not delegated.

      • English Outsider says:

        TTG – I thought Putin left that side of things to Shoigu, apart from giving general directions. Those general directions, by the sound of it, arrived at after a lot of behind the scenes consultation.

        But what’s actually happening in the Kremlin we don’t know. A contrast to what’s happening in the White House. You still, for all its defects, have of all countries a political system most open to inspection.

        Thus open to debate. Everyone was upset about the difficulty of getting information in the States about, say, the Steele affair. But compare that to the black hole that is London or Berlin or Paris when we want to know what our politicians and officials have been getting up to!

        So too with other information. I lost all my notes recently. The computer just swallowed them up and hid them. They do that, computers, if they’re feeling rebellious. I had to summon the Infants to dig around in the bowels of the machine and reassemble.

        It was stuff going back years. As it got put back together I noticed the sources and references stored. They were almost all American.

        I get around the English and continental media and internet a bit but there’s not a lot of hard information there, not on international affairs.

        Some exceptions. My Brexit guru, Richard North, is very sharp indeed when it comes to disentangling what Brussels is up to. I shan’t forget the magnificent General Kujat on prime time TV in Germany, at a time when Breedlove was telling us the Russian army ready to go in in force, insisting stoutly that Breedlove was wrong. Or Michael Lüders debunking the Syrian poison gas story, again on prime time. But generally, and compared with the American internet and media scene, Europe really is a black hole for me.

        I’ve always thought that perhaps that might be my personal anecdotal impression, due to the fact that I don’t know the European internet scene at all well. But recently the impression was confirmed by a man who does know his way around. Baud:-

        ” I am definitely not an admirer of Vladimir Putin, nor of any Western leader, by the way.

        In Europe, the lack of quality alternative media and real investigative journalism makes it difficult to find balanced information. The situation is different in North America where alternative journalism is more developed and constitutes an indispensable analytical tool. In the United States, the intelligence community is more present in the media than in Europe.

        I probably could not have written my book based only on the European media.”

        https://www.thepostil.com/our-interview-with-jacques-baud/

        So if Baud’s not finding much useful information in Europe it’s fair to say there’s probably not a lot there to be found. But recently a few more European authorities have come out of the woodwork. Skimming the blogs this Sunday morning I came across another. Delawarde. Who takes us straight to the matter in hand: the SMO or, calling a spade a spade, the recent invasion: –

        “As a former head of the Situation-Intelligence-Electronic Warfare Division of the Joint Operational Planning Staff, I do not agree at all with this part of the analysis, which is based on an inaccurate “assessment of the situation” and which is, in fact, the conclusion of a biased Atlanticist position, aimed at making the Ukrainians believe that Russia is weak, in order to push Ukraine to resist to the end and to let it envisage, with Western help, a victory. Here is my argument:

        “Until proven otherwise, Russia has not declared a partial, let alone general, mobilisation of its forces to conduct this “special operation”. In Operation Z, it has so far used only 12% of its soldiers (professionals or volunteers), 10% of its fighter planes, 7% of its tanks, 5% of its missiles and 4% of its artillery. Everyone will observe that the behaviour of the Western ruling elites is, until now, much more feverish and hysterical than the behaviour of Russian governance, which is calmer, more placid, more determined, more sure and more in control of itself, its actions and its discourse. These are facts.

        “Russia has not put its immense reserves to work (reserves that hardly exist in the EU)…. ”

        https://stratpol.com/comparatif-du-leadership-des-armees-de-russie-et-de-lotan/

        TTG – there are many different views on whether it’s NATO or Russia fighting a just war in the Ukraine. But, as that Baud article showed and as Delawarde also now insists, I do not believe there is any longer much room for dispute as to how that war will go. We shall not alter that by propping Kiev up further. All that will result in is our proxy losing more territory. Someone ought to point out to Zelensky that it’s time to call it a day.

        They need financial support now, not howitzers and tanks. Nor IMF assistance which will put them in hock for ever. Straight grants.

        The EU won’t give them much. It has its own derelict economies in the south to prop up and when it comes down to it the Germans, the paymaster of Europe, won’t be wanting to unbelt further for all they’re set on Barbarossa II. It’ll have to come from Biden.

        When the time comes I hope the United States will be generous with that financial support. The Ukraine really does need it and it’ll come from nowhere else.

  4. zmajcek says:

    Putin has a lot of credit with ordinary Russians to burn through. He’s been an international, political star for so many years and many still want to believe in him and his actions, no matter how bizarre and reckless they are becoming.
    The West is helping him by going after everything Russian, proving his point that “they” are out to get them.

    One thing I’m wondering is why those surrounded in Mariupol steel plant do not surrender ?
    The Russians have been parading supposed Nazis and their tattoos for days, so the chances are they are not to be executed but rather used for propaganda purposes.
    So why not surrender ?

    • TTG says:

      zmajcek,

      “One thing I’m wondering is why those surrounded in Mariupol steel plant do not surrender ?”

      The same reason the Texans did not surrender at the Alamo. That place is now a holy shrine. History is full of heroic fights to the death.

      • zmajcek says:

        TTG

        Mariupol has already been lost to the Russians and those holed up in the plant seem to be willing to break out or get evacuated.
        That suggest to me they are not attached to the place.

        • Fred says:

          The left is always re-writing history. “Remember Trayvon!!!” I mean Eric Garner, no, I mean George Floyd! All so yesterday’s myth. Now they are on to foreign heros.

          • Steve says:

            Fred,

            Lol. One of the authors is an old friend of mine. He’d find your “left” description” interesting”. 🙂

        • TTG says:

          Steve,

          Haven’t read it. I assume it shows a near universal truth that those we hold up as heroes are seldom saints. I’m sure I’d enjoy the book. I read all I find on Benedict Arnold and Robert Rogers. Both are unbelievably complex characters fully capable of both heroic and dastardly acts.

          • Steve says:

            TTG,

            True enough, though most importantly the “first draft of history” may need significant revision that takes decades. Only then do we discover how much we were lied to – if we’re still above ground:)

          • Al says:

            TTG
            Over the past 12 yrs I have spent my winter months in Texas.
            The ALAMO is a “religion” there. Speak no evil and certainly do NOT raise even a possibility that the conflict had anything to do with slavery. Especially at a bar where many are packing irons while guzzling whisky!

          • Kilo 4/11 says:

            TTG, would you be so kind as to recommend a book or three on Arnold and Rogers?

          • TTG says:

            Kil 4/11,

            My most recent read was “Valcour: The 1776 Campaign That Saved the Cause of Liberty” by Jack Kelly. It covers Arnold’s campaign to build a fleet, create a navy and fight the British on Lake Champlain. I found it to be an exciting read even though it is known history. Spending my college years in northern New York, I could feel the terrain, the weather and the waters as I read this book. I didn’t realize just how critical this valiant, but failed, campaign was to the survival of Washington’s Army and our ultimate victory. My God, those were men!

            For Rogers, you must start with “Northwest Passage,” the historical novel by Kenneth Roberts. I still have the ratty paperback copy that we passed around during my SF officers course. We even read passages to each other during the Robin Sage exercise. It was inspirational.

        • Fred says:

          Steve,

          I would describe a good part of it as Nietzsche’s ressentiment in action.

    • Pat Lang says:

      zmajcek

      Perhaps there is some reason that you don’t understand. Something like …

      • zmajcek says:

        Trying to get out of Dodge in the middle of the night in an evac helicopter to fight another day seems pragmatic rather than romantic.

    • TV says:

      Maybe because being tortured to death or disappeared into the gulag are worse than an uncomplicated combat death.

  5. joe90 says:

    Also while I don´t see a reason to use a nuke (the Russians can just stave the people out) I can see a reason for the Russians to move West. This war is not about the Ukraine. Right or Wrong the Russians made clear this was is about NATO expansion. That is what they said needs in their eyes to be resolved. Given their history. they are going to fight, so if there is a nuke, it will probably in Poland.

    • Pat Lang says:

      joe90
      Vlad knows that in a nuclear exchange with the US Russia will be utterly destroyed. You really don’t understand this. His incompetent generals understand that they would lose all their big cities and industry and many millions of people.

      • joe90 says:

        The USA will not sacrifice NY or Boston for France or Germany, everyone knows that. If Germany needs to die for NY, then so be it

        • PeterHug says:

          If the destruction of NY or Boston is required by a situation involving NATO Article 5, the US will go down that path. Count on it. (Russia probably wouldn’t like what happened next, though…)

          • joe90 says:

            Why do you think the Americans will die for the Europeans?

          • TTG says:

            joe90,

            We’ve done it before in two world wars.

          • PeterHug says:

            joe90 –
            Such a decision has nothing at all to do with Americans dying for Europeans, and everything to do with Americans dying to uphold the good name and honor of the United States, and to demonstrate that when we make a commitment we keep it.

            It’s just NOT something we would not do (depending apparently a bit on who our President is…), and it’s also something we would then shove down the throat of whoever made us do it, and force them to choke to death on it.

      • joe90 says:

        Also, if they are incompetent, why do you expect them to understand anything?

    • zmajcek says:

      joe

      Threatening with nukes, and the new, unpredictable, mad Vlad persona is all they have left. I don’t think anything will come out of it.
      That said, you want to avoid pushing someone with 6k nuclear warheads into a corner.

      What they might do if they get their way with Ukraine is to try and break up NATO by making a move against a smaller NATO country like TTG’s ancestral Heimat.

      • joe90 says:

        Its not about Vlad but Ok. lets see what happens. I am not pro Russia, I`m Pro realitiy, so lets see what happens and then you can join me in the “we try to work out what is happening instead of what we wish world”

  6. Richard Ong says:

    A small tacnuke strike? Well, as long as it’s a minor thing like that. I’m sure the Russians will take it to the nuclear level over a steel plant with a few hundred enemy troops and civilians in it. What could be more reasonable than that?

    • Pat Lang says:

      Richard Ong
      Reason has nothing to do with it. At this point Vlad needs to make an example.

      • Worth Pointing Out says:

        Vlad needs to “make an example” to… whom, exactly?

        I don’t think he cares in the slightest what western “public opinion” thinks about this war.

        Nor do I think he believes that the Borg is going to be swayed one way or the other by *anything* that he says or does.

        And I would think that nuking that plant would send exactly the wrong message to his own constituency, and he knows it.

        So who, exactly, would he be sending a message to by vaporizing the Azovsteel plant?

        Kyiv? Finland? Sweden?

        I am genuinely curious, because I do not understand what the thinking is behind this suggestion of yours.

      • Pat Lang says:

        All

        Many of you do not understand the mind of people at The Alamo or the hundreds of thousands of Jap soldiers who died in the Pacific rather than surrender.

  7. Pat Lang says:

    But it would feel so good for Vlad.

    • Mark Gaughan says:

      Have you lost your mind? That is a serious question. It is not an ad hominen attack. You’re becoming bidenesque.

      • AngusinCanada says:

        this entire thread is ridiculous and entirely delusional. There us ZERO chance of, or reason for the Russians to use a tactical nuclear weapon on a bunch of trapped, dying neo-nazis, stuck underground.
        Focus your discussions on reality. Argue, for example, if Russia plans to strike into Western Ukraine from Belorussia,, in an attempt to choke off the weaponry supply coming in from Poland. That, at least, is in the realm of possibility.

    • joe90 says:

      PL I respect you, in this time of trouble when if nukes fly it will be nearer me (I live on a farm in Spain) than you, you are allowing other voices to be heard, well respect for for allowing different opinions. However, a few of us are not pro Russian, we are just pro reality. No one with any heart wanted this war to start and yes I know there is propaganda but no one who is decent is doing that, yeah its nice to be nieve. Thank you.

  8. d74 says:

    According to their published rule of engagement, the Russians do not have tactical nuke. Nuclear is all or nothing. Approximately: “A world without Russia would not be worth living in”. And not use first (we don’t have to believe them).
    Anyway, Putin says Azovsthal is not worth the hide of a Russian grenadier.

    According to the Russians (Colonel Cassad) the last civilian hostages in the catacombs were evacuated today. The road is free. No assault, nothing but conventional bombs, conventional shells and conventional 300mm thermobaric rockets.

    Azovsthal will soon be history, maybe even by May 9. In the great history of this war, Azovsthal was a tiny, tactically inconsequential affair. Rats or moles rushed into the Soviet basements and waited.

  9. jim ticehurst says:

    I Think Putins Top Desire Now..Is to Kill Zelinsky and all His Staff…in His Bunker..And Then Fly The Russian Flag…In Kyev…A Complete reenactment of Berlin..And Hitler ..

    He Probably Believed…long ago.. He was Going to easily celebrate that This Monday..

    He Will Want to Do Dramatic Damage tomorrow..Thats why He let the Civilians Out.

    They must have thier Own Mother of All Bombs..Like Trump Used in Afghanistan..

    Vacume Bombs…High Altitude Bombing..?

    I said here long ago..Putin would leave Kyev Mostly undamaged..He is Sentimental about Vladimer the Great.and Moscow….But At This Point..The only Thing soon left Standing..Might be the Orthodox Church…
    Doesnt look like old WW2 Junk,,ready to for that May Day Parade..to me..
    And I Dont think Putin is afraid to use it all now..To Bake His Cake..
    JT

  10. Mark Gaughan says:

    Lets say, for the sake of discussion, that there is no God. Now, lets also remember human nature. You all know about that. Now, for the sake of this discussion, lets say that there is a god, and that God is all mighty, all powerful, and all knowing. He can defeat Satan. He could make everything just fine. But no, God gave us free will. God has left it up to us humans to defeat Satan on our own. God could stop every bad thing from happening. He chooses not to. If God does exist, he is psychopathic and sadistic. He has no excuse.
    “I don’t know if God exists, but it would be better for his reputation if he didn’t.”
    Jules Renard

    • Jovan P says:

      @Mark Gaughan
      Your reasoning is nice, but in the end you go astray. Stopping everything bad from happening and giving people free will don’t go together. Thy will be done…

      Wonder if Claude Robert Eatherly’s remorse was genuine or not. He was one of the pilots who took part in the dropping of the atomic bomb on Hiroshima.

      • Richard Ong says:

        Free will doctrine exists to justify or explain God’s indifference to human suffering and criminality. It’s not something a loving God would establish or embed to vindicate some abstract principle.

        The Ten Commandments indicate that God understands that earthly limits can be established. Free will doctrine suffices to permit reasonable opportunities to experiment, fail, and try again, but it makes absolutely no sense to build into “free will” the absolute, rigid, uncompromising divine principle that no excess or hideous crime can be interfered with.

        Human laws exist to punish or deter certain humans but most spend their lives without experiencing legal sanctions. It’s not a reasonable or loving God who would say it’s 100% open season on decent humans and that the scum of the earth are free to do what they will. Some divine plan. Oh, and then you burn in fire for eternity because you find that version of God difficult to accept.

    • Klapper says:

      Where is it written that God left us to defeat Satan on our own? Part of the free will deal is the freedom to ask God for help in our tribulations. Ask God for wisdom, for courage, for the gifts of reason, discernment and perseverance.

    • Fourth and Long says:

      Good one. Excellent. It looks as though you didn’t read the bible or else forgot it or fell asleep in Sunday school one day. Wherein early on it is revealed that God created Woman and it’s been a devil of a time ever since.

      Speaking of magical varieties of thinking, tomato (thanks apple spell correct), sorry, tomorrow will be the 77th anniversary of the day of victory for Russia (and in my personal opinion most of the human race): 2022 – 1945 = 77. In superstitious lala land 7 is a magic number, so 77 would be more significant, arguably, than say a centenary of 100. With that Idea in mind I will now see how much merchandise I can purchase with these $3 bills my printer just produced.

      Actually Genesis is replete with sevens and seven times seven appears in the several curses placed on Cain and his descendants, the idea being somehow that the deity disapproves of murder but can take his sweet time getting around to meting out punishment for it.

    • Barbara Ann says:

      Mark Gaughan

      If God stopped every bad thing from happening what would “good” look like in the absence of evil? And in this Panglossian Utopia would everything be just fine for the Catholics or for Planned Parenthood?

      There are those who would cure us of the human condition altogether, they are truly doing the work of the Devil.

      Renard capitalized “His” and “He” btw.

  11. PeterHug says:

    Consider the reality that the Russians are not the only ones capable of playing games. I assume that they have a number of attacks on tap for overnight on May 8/9. However, the most effective operations don’t need to be lethal ones – consider a scenario where one of the T-14s suddenly splits in half to reveal an unmanned replica of the Deathmobile from Animal House, to ram the reviewing stand containing Putin, all while spewing clouds of thioacetone. (https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/things-i-won-t-work-thioacetone)

    It wouldn’t be lethal, but it certainly would be memorable, and likely good for a major propaganda defeat for Putin.

    I have no idea if the Ukrainians could pull something like that off, but they have so far demonstrated a bit of a flair for effective information ops.

  12. drifter says:

    As a military-political matter, what should the U.S. Government be doing to reduce, maybe even close off, the likelihood of nuclear combat, toe-to-toe with the Russkies? My recommendation is that the U.S. (a) call for an immediate ceasefire, (b) impose an arms embargo on Ukraine, and (3) impose sanctions on Ukraine if its government doesn’t accept (i) “revised” borders, and (ii) regional autonomy within the remaining Ukrainian administration.

    • TTG says:

      drifter,

      Why stop there. Let’s do everything we can to give Taiwan to china and South Korea to North Korea, all for the sake of world peace.

      • joe90 says:

        Why should we care about Taiwan or North Korea? I never understood why the UK needed to be in NATO since we had nukes. The Warsaw Pact had to go through Germany then France before getting to the channel, if they tried we could just nuke Germany and stop them. Yes ok, bad to be Germany, but who cares?

        • TTG says:

          Such a shallow, self-centered attitude. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and chalk this us to a failed attempt to be flip and witty.

      • James says:

        TTG,

        I thought Taiwan already belonged to China – isn’t that the official position of the US government?

      • Worth Pointing Out says:

        Why not? The USA moved heaven and earth to prevent “giving” South Vietnam to North Vietnam. And then gave up the fight.

        Yet now nobody cares that the capital of Vietnam is Hanoi, and nobody would suggest that splitting that country in two again is A Good Idea Well Worth Spilling Blood For.

        • Richard Ong says:

          The US didn’t give up the fight. Nixon understood the realities of an endless commitment and put pressure on the South Vietnamese to assume responsibility for their survival. Per Frank Snepp, the Delta was secure and the NV Politburo decidely cowed by US bombing. The leftist, sellout Democrats in Congress cut off the South Vietnamese and they and they alone brought about the collapse. The relentless pursuit of Watergate also weakened and distracted Nixon. The “US” giving up the fight isn’t accurate. We achieved a military victory but the Democrats threw it away and made all sacrifice for naught.

          • Worth Pointing Out says:

            “The US didn’t give up the fight. ”

            If you want to believe that, well, good on you.

            But my point remains: in 1960-1970 the forced unification of Vietnam was viewed with just as much anathema as TTG regards China overrunning Taiwan, or the North Koreans seizing South Korea.

            Yet is a unitary Vietnam still seen as an abomination?

            Or is it just a big ol’ pile of ho-hum? A case of: they don’t care so why should I?

            The latter, I would argue.

            So why hyperventilate about the prospect of the mainland reclaiming the province of Formosa?

            Or about the possibility of North Korea seizing South Korea and incorporating the two into a single country called “Korea”?

            Both may be seen as horrible prospects – clearly, TTG thinks so – yet within a few decades everyone might wonder what all the fuss was about.

      • drifter says:

        TTG, what should the U.S. do to reduce the likelihood of nuclear war breaking out over Ukraine? The other situations you mention are interesting, but the U.S. isn’t currently engaged in hot proxy wars with China or N. Korea.

        • TTG says:

          drifter,

          I don’t know what would stop Putin’s near constant threat of launching nukes other than to give in to his every whim and desire. But Chamberlain tried that at Munich and it didn’t work out that well. Both Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un display the rational, self-interested judgement needed to avoid engaging in hot proxy wars with the US. I always thought Putin was just as rational. Now I think he’s trapped by the kleptocratic autocracy he created. I don’t know how we can help him step away from the cliff other than to watch our language, remain calm and remain firm.

          • Steve says:

            TTG,

            The great danger is not believing that Russia regards this NATO threat to be existential. That’s gamble with extremely high stakes. For Europe.

            When I hear “We have to fight them over there so we don’t have to fight them here” (something I’ve understood for decades) I doubt the US would escalate but be willing to sacrifice Europe for its Neocon driven fantasies.

          • TTG says:

            Steve,

            A lot of people seem to forget or outright dismiss how Eastern Europe, including a large swath of NATO regards Russia as an existential threat to its survival. That’s a hell of a gamble, as well.

          • Steve says:

            TTG,

            Do they really? After all this time? With the US Neocons and their willing accomplices at the helm it seems to me that NATO has become a much greater threat to Eastern Europe than Russia. Now those people have no choice and very little to say in their future as the US continues to prosecute its proxy war to destroy Russia.

            It’s my belief that the Ukrainian people will look back on this war and decide just who it was who masterminded their downfall.

          • TTG says:

            Steve,

            “Do they really? After all this time?”

            Yes they do. Why do you think they all petitioned to join the EU and NATO? Do you think they long for the days of Comecon and the WTO? They do not wax nostalgic about the glory days of Stalin and Beria. Do you?

      • Pudding Tain says:

        Take a gander at a topo map of Taiwan, taking that island ain’t gonna be easy.

        • TTG says:

          Pudding Tain,

          Yes, and after watching the West’s reaction to the invasion of Ukraine surely gives China pause before trying the same with Taiwan.

          • Steve says:

            TTG,

            Taiwan is part of China and only recognised as an independent state by four countries. The US isn’t one of them despite State removing that fact from its website

          • TTG says:

            Steve,

            That policy of strategic ambiguity is key to preventing tensions with China over Taiwan rising to a greater level. Our policy also includes providing Taiwan with the means to defend itself against an attacker. It’s all diplomatic double talk, but if it lets everybody sleep at night, what the hell. Maybe if everyone tried that strategic ambiguity in Ukraine, we wouldn’t be where we are now.

    • Stadist says:

      (b) impose an arms embargo on Ukraine

      I like this idea, U.S. and NATO should do more to stop flow of russian weapons to Ukraine. Aerial bombings and tactical missile strikes will suffice I suppose.

  13. mcohen says:

    Lol.there are no more fighters down in the steel plant.they are gone.all paid for.may 9 will be a parade.

    • TTG says:

      mcohen,

      The women, children and aged have been evacuated from Azovstal. The soldiers, those wounded and still fighting, remain.

      • walrus says:

        According to Russia, the remaining defenders are members of the Neo Nazi Azov battalion, and foreigners who are either military tourists or NATO types.

        At best they can expect long prison sentences. I wouldn’t waste my time over these “heroes”.

        • TTG says:

          walrus,

          Mostly remnants of one of the Azov battalions and a marine brigade and some border troops. I don’t know where you get NATO types, but there were quite a few foreign volunteers among the Azov troops. There’s another Azov battalion active around Kharkiv that was earlier involved in the defense of Kyiv. Russia doesn’t seemed too concerned about that second Azov battalion.

      • mcohen says:

        Ttg.the whole nazi fighters thing is complete bullshit and Russian disinformation.Those fighters secured the plant for Russia and kept Ukrainian forces out.
        Furthermore they were used as propaganda by Russia to justify the “denazify” war.
        Very smart move by the Russians.starting in 2014 when all this was put in place.
        Lol
        Listen.This is the dream we dream

        One day I was running a race and I saw the finishing line ahead of me.i thought I was going to win and suddenly a guy shot past me and won.I got off the tread mill and came in second.

  14. Worth Pointing Out says:

    “I would not rule out the possibility of a small tacnuke strike on the Azovsteel plant as an ‘example.’ ”

    In my opinion that statement has about as much credibility as the notion that Assad launched a chemical weapons attack on Douma because…. well ….. because he wanted to make an “example” of them.

    If the Russians wanted to make an “example” of the Azovsteel plant then a far simpler and much more effective demonstration would be had by bringing in pumps and flooding the entire plant with seawater.

    Not that I necessarily think the Russian would do that. But they certainly could do that, and it would not bring anything like the condemnation that the use of nukes would bring.

    Plus, of course, it is far more likely to actually finish the job.

  15. Fourth and Long says:

    It would be a sorry waste of such a critical resource. On May 9? Too simple minded and obvious. Oliver Stone already last week tweeted that if something like that happens it will most likely be the work of one of our foggier allies, as the XY sex chromosome endowed inhabitant of the street would likely say “the nasty Russians did it, I heard they would, it’s in the papers!” Just like Versailles on the Potomac would not mind seeing either? No. We may have silly fantasies but they are fantasies. I hope. He lets the civilians out and then nukes the place two days later? Popcorn is too far out of style IMO.
    All sick jokes aside, given how desperate things are for Putin now it is a dangerous situation, that is certain. That area is far too close to beautiful places like Rostov on Don for any serious Russian commander to contemplate such an action, due to Newton’s third Law and laws of atmospheric diffusion.
    A bizarre use of the high hard one.

  16. Pat Lang says:

    All
    One of my failures has been a failure to teach you all the difference between Advocacy and Analysis.

    • KMD says:

      It’s not your failure Colonel Lang.
      We all have to answer for ourselves: What can I know?

    • EZSmirkzz says:

      It’s not a failure to teach Colonel it is a failure to learn.

      Apologies good sir, I am reminded of Gus’ words to Woodrow in the Santa Fe jail in the Streets of Laredo, “We ain’t dead yet Woodrow, we still got time to learn.”

      Thank you for the decades of effort. I’d prefer you didn’t publish this, but it is your blog sir.

  17. Leith says:

    V-E Day today. But many German units had already surrendered in Caserta Italy on 2 may, near Hamburg on 5 May, and in Bavaria on 6 May. But Ike put his foot down and nixed any further partial surrenders until the Dönitz government agreed to a general surrender of all German forces simultaneously to all the Allies, including the Soviets.

    Today is also the “Day Remembrance and Reconciliation for Those Who Lost Their Lives during the Second World War”. A war said to be started by Hitler invading Poland. But should be recognized as being started by both Stalin and Hitler. Kindly old Uncle Joe in the Kremlin not only helped Hitler invade Poland, he did Hitler one better by also invading Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, and Moldova.

    • Bill Roche says:

      No matter how many innocents he has killed, the enemy of my enemy is my friend. And yes, that included Stalin. What Stalin did to Finland and the Balts, and his participation in the rape of Poland, doesn’t get one paragraph in a typical H,S, textbook.

    • walrus says:

      Leith: “A war said to have been started by Hitler”. What planet are you on?

      • TTG says:

        walrus,

        Who do you think started WWII if not Hitler?

        • walrus says:

          Ask Leith, he’s the one disputing it.

        • Leith says:

          Hitler and Stalin invaded Poland in 1939.

          • Steve says:

            Leith,

            That was a long, long time ago. They’re both dead.

          • Leith says:

            Steve –

            Putin used Stalin’s playbook.

            In 1939 Stalin said Poland is full of Fascists. He said they (the Polish Fascists) are oppressing their ethnic Belarussian and Ukrainian minorities. He set up false flag operations so as to blame his invasion of Poland on the Poles.

            83 years later Putin says Ukraine is full of Nazis. He said the ukronazis are oppressing their ethnic Russian minorities. He conducted false flag ops to try to convince fellow travelers and others in the West to blame his invasion of Ukraine on the Ukrainians.

            History matters Steve. It repeats itself, or comes close. It is worth reading.

      • Fred says:

        Walrus,

        I wonder how long it will be before people realize that what the Bolsheviks did on their climb to power looks remarkably like what the left is doing in the US right now.

  18. Dolores O´Neil says:

    It is only US MSM and warmongers who remain talking about a limited use of nukes in Ukraine by Russia.

    Why should Russdia need such a thing and moreover during celebratio nof Victory Day?

    IMO, such insistence, points at a more than possible false flag, as usual and we watched in Syria, during the celebrations of Victory Day on charge of those who regret the defeat of the nazis during WWII, many of whom are holding power in the US and Europe right now.

    • TTG says:

      Dolores O´Neil,

      It’s Putin, Lavrov and other Russian government/media people who constantly bring up the possibility of the use of nukes. It’s not a false flag by anyone. The perpetrator of a nuclear detonation cannot be faked. It is a blatant Russian threat.

      • Dolores O´Neil says:

        That is not true, and you know it.

        What Lavrov is stating is that the war is pushed forward risking a nuclear standoff…

        It is Biden, Von der Leyen, and Borrell, who need this war going on and escalating, to hide the current ongoing banking collapse.

        • Dolores O´Neil says:

          Also lagard and Powell need this war to hide their mismanagement from the taxpayers.

          There will be shortage of lamposts when the people finally relize they have been robbed of everything they had…

          They are already setting banks on fire in France…where Petit Napolen reigns, by a last moment little slide in past elections where only a 35%, in the best case, of French appeared to vote, in his new Vichy Regime sustaining nazi death squads in Ukraine…

        • TTG says:

          Dolores,

          What dimension do you live in? Putin, Lavrov, Medvedev and others have been publicly beating the nuclear drum even before the invasion commenced. Putin started and is continuing the invasion. Apparently he felt he needed and still needs this war.

          • KMD says:

            Since they’ve been publicly beating that nuclear drum you should have links to back up that assertion. Please share.

      • jld says:

        TTG
        It’s not YET a false flag by anyone.
        Fixed it for you.

  19. Fourth and Long says:

    What might possibly be contemplated is a compound statement of conditional threats to use a certain amount of force, and where specifically, in the instance that certain ventures continue or that another certain amount of force will be used somewhere else if a certain organization makes a retaliation of specified varieties in areas enumerated in this list: -List-

    • Fourth and Long says:

      My guess is that the readers here will want to read this:

      http://johnhelmer.net/the-last-ditch-is-poland-russias-phase-3-plan-for-western-ukraine/

      • Barbara Ann says:

        Fourth and Long

        The Neocons would be delighted for Putin to march on Lvov. Helmer’s logic and that of his quoted source would lead to Russia attempting to occupy all of Ukraine. Maybe that is the Kremlin’s logic too.

        On the resupply problem, Ukraine is split by a large natural barrier where all but the 2 Dnieper railway bridges that cross dams could be destroyed overnight. I have yet to read a sensible rationale as to why Russia hasn’t done this already.

        • TTG says:

          Barbara Ann,

          A few days ago, the Russians tried to take out the Dnieper bridge at Dnipro. It was damaged, but far from destroyed. They tried to take out a bridge SW of Odesa three times. Again, it was damaged, but not destroyed. They lack the capability to do a thorough job.

          • walrus says:

            TTG, you must know that steel railway bridges are notoriously difficult to destroy from the air based on WWII and Vietnam experience.

            It ain’t that easy.

          • TTG says:

            walrus,

            Exactly. It’s the same with most transportation infrastructure. The Ukrainians have been able to put destroyed railway bridges around Kyiv back into operation in one to two weeks.

          • Steve says:

            Barbara Ann,

            The Russians have been hitting transponders across the electrified railway system, according to their own reporting – somewhat confirmed. As Walrus says, bridges are notoriously difficult to destroy but cutting the power supply is just as effective.Toward the end of the operation they could well have demolition teams ready do the job of cutting east from west.

      • Steve says:

        Fourth,

        That’s an interesting article for sure. And not a bad container for misdirection. As always with this war, let’s see what they do rather than what they say.

        • Fourth and Long says:

          My thoughts exactly. Disinfo for potential interlopers and chastisement (with pretensions of being considerate and informative) of Russians who are understandably worried about the ongoing procession of powerful weapons from west to east. To try to get a better handle on its significance or lack thereof I went to the tsargrad.ru main page and translated (via bot) another article high on the listed offerings. Similar sort of rhubarb as this article which to me seems characteristic of certain Russian “authoritative” sites. Talks down to the reader in ways you don’t find in mainstream US and British publications (they have their own characteristics). Takeaway? They are taking domestic heat on the Nato arms issue. And they want to quelch ideas proferred by various so-called experts in the west that they either need to or plan to use more drastic methods of escalation than say, a 100,000 man infantry onslaught from the north.

  20. zmajcek says:

    btw, what is Ukraine planning for May 9th?
    Surely they must have several different plans to spoil the festivities in some manner.

    • Leith says:

      Some candidates:

      1] Accepting surrender of a few of Putin’s BTGs near Izyum?

      2] Liberating Smilnyi Island?

      3] Sabotage at Tu-160 airfield at Saratov?

      Unfortunately most Russians will never hear any of it, they’ll only hear about Putin’s great victory.

      • Philip Owen says:

        As someone who had a business run from Saratov I will be pedantic and say that the airbase for the bombers is across the river in Engels. It’s not marked on maps of course. It’s a good target because a large fraction of Russia’s cruise missiles are there. Nearby is the remains of Russia’s chemical weapons programme at Shikany, Khavlinsk. Now a lab for defensive measures only. I met some of the unemployed researchers after it downsized.

        • Leith says:

          Philip Owen –

          Thanks for that.

          Re the chem weapons plant nearby: When did that close down? Did they also do research work for FSB and the other security services? Or just for military applications?

      • zmajcek says:

        The first two are unlikely to happen but a sabotage of the victory parade would be heard around the world and impossible to hide.

        Something that would remind the ordinary Russian of the human cost of their so called “de-Nazification”, like a drone dropping pictures of destroyed homes, dead and destitute civilians, wounded children.

        • Leith says:

          ZMajcek –

          Scuttlebutt has it that the Russians have abandoned Smilnyi Island after taking so many hits there. If true it is empty now, unmanned. But perhaps you are right. If the Ukrainians moved back in, then they would be an easy target for Russian SRBMs.

          Regarding Victory Day Parade sabotage: YouTube is showing live footage of military vehicles rolling in and setting up ahead of the parade. Security forces are sweeping all vehicles for bombs and such. No trust of their own military.
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JqHyVLS1LI

  21. Deap says:

    What secret mission is Jill Biden on right now in Ukraine – May 8. What is behind the onsite photo ops and Joe’s round of golf while remaining in Maryland? Where will she be on May 9.

    Or did Dr Jill simply prefer to spend time in war-torn Ukraine on Mother’s Day, instead of with her train wreck family in the US.

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/05/jill-biden-justin-trudeau-u2s-bono-edge-visit-ukraine-day/

  22. LJ says:

    My prediction of VP’s supposed big announcement: crickets. At least nothing that would be out of ordinary from other celebrations of the victory over Nazi Germany. It will speak to his own nation about the struggle for victory over a rebirth of fascism represented by the US/NATO attempts to control the planet — no nukes, no mobilization, just what most people have come to expect from VP.

    • Worth Pointing Out says:

      It should interesting that Pat Lang predicted a mini-nuking of Azovsteel, and TTG quoted extensively from an article that confidently predicted that Putin would announce a mass mobilization in his speech.

      Neither of which actually happened.

      An analytical person might stop at that point to re-evaluate their basic assumptions because the predictive power of their assumptions appear to be a little bit, well, wanting.

      • Pat Lang says:

        Worth pointing out.
        I DID NOT predict that. I merely said it was a possibility. Another Russian IO op hear from.

      • TTG says:

        Worth Pointing Out,

        Galeev did not predict a mass mobilization. He went into some detail pointing out why mass mobilization could not be accomplished and saying it would be a stupid decision. But he did end with the observation that leaders can do stupid things. Your reading comprehension skills seem to be a bit wanting.

  23. Kilo 4/11 says:

    TTG, thanks. Two titles added to my list.

Comments are closed.