The Baathist regime of Bashar al-Assad is no more. The SAA stopped fighting for him, the same SAA that fought fiercely to defend his regime from the likes of ISIS and al-Nusra for years. What happened to the SAA? What changed. The conquerer of Syria now goes by his true name, Amahd al-Sharaa. Only a few days ago he was known as Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, commander of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, a staunch ally of ISIS. Before that he was an al-Qaeda fighter in Iraq.
In a recent interview with CNN, al-Sharaa admits he changed from his youth. We can believe that or we can doubt that. What we can’t doubt is that he built his HTS into an effective revolutionary force, something ISIS failed at. He embraced a far more tolerant attitude towards other Syrian factions in Idlib. But his tolerance had limits. He was not above firing on Idlib demonstrators against his rule. His HTS also hunted down and killed ISIS leader Abu Hussein Al-Husseini al-Qurashi in July 2023. He built the Command of Military Operations (CMO) into an effective fighting force embracing drone operations with assistance from Ukraine’s GUR since June of this year. Turkiye does not control HTS. Nor does Israel or the US. Qatar has been the primary benefactor of the group. The bottom line here is that al-Sharaa and the CMO have their own agency. They are not mere tools of some super-power. Neither the US, nor any other country, controls everything that happens in the world.
What will happen in the coming days, weeks and months? Will Amahd al-Sharaa’s revolution degenerate into an ISIS-like nightmare? We still consider HTS and al-Sharaa to be terrorists. Although the nightmare is possible, I doubt it. This speedy and relatively bloodless revolution will not generate the hatreds that a drawn out civil war would generate. Most of Syria’s neighbors seem willing to wait and see how events play out. But will Turkiye try to carve out a greater Turkiye? Will Israel try to cave out a greater Israel? I see those possibilities as Syria’s greatest immediate threats.
And what of the Rojava Kurds? My beloved Rojava Kurds and the YPG/YPJ. Will they now be able and willing to reconcile with Damascus? The US is still there and has said it will remain there to ensure ISIS does not take advantage of the new Syria. I can understand that and even support that, but we better start pulling up stakes soon. We should encourage the SDF to quickly assimilate into the new Damascus security structure, something we should have done years ago in my opinion. And we should un-ass al-Tanf in the next 24 hours. There is absolutely no need for us being there.
TTG
First Libya, now Syria.
Although it seems like treason combined with Assad’s stubbornness, I’d like to congratulate the Turkish, Israeli and US agencies, this went fast.
Now the HTS can start butchering people. May God help the Syrians.
They will consolidate power and then go after the Kurds in eastern Syria. They will get the oil fields and their sponsor, Erdogan, gets his dream come true as well.
A kinder gentler bunch of Takfiris. Oh TTG, stop already, please. I don’t know if I should be laughing or crying at your words.
Essentially, what’s next is going to be a war of everyone against everyone. Some, like your damn Kurds, fighting to survive and others, like the Turks and various jihadi factions, for territory and power. There will a lot of refugees consisting of non-Sunnis; a veritable humanitarian. There will forced conversions, Taliban like rules, head chopping, stoning, rapes and the rest of the usual suppression of rights; especially of women’s and minorities. You, the deep state and the western media will pretend it isn’t happing and that, indeed, it’s mostly sunshine and rainbows.
Endless war and suffering because Russia bad and we gave them a black eye. Maybe even the start of Armageddon. Hooray.
Are there Armenians in Syria?
Jovan,
Yes. Quite a few. They are historic communities; mostly in Aleppo, but throughout the country as well.
Jovan –
Syrian-Armenians are in Aleppo, Latakia, Damascus, Qamishli, Tell Abyad, Al-Hasakah, Al-Malikiyah and Ras al-Ayn. Although they are probably no longer be in Tell Abyad and Ras al-Ayn as those have been under the control of Erdogan’s SNA headchoppers since 2019. And previously they were in Raqqa but those that could fled from ISIS.
The Syrian tragedy. Are the Russians indeed responsible for it? So many are saying, but we cannot lay that tragedy at their door.
Think back to the circumstances obtaining in Ukraine in February 2022 and compare those circumstances with how it is in Syria today.
In early 2022 what we in the West expected was that the Russians should brush aside the Kiev forces and take the whole of Ukraine. We then expected them to be embroiled in a partisan war. Those partisans armed to the teeth by NATO with arms suitable for just that purpose and supported by Western ISR and Western direction.
”Russia’s Afghanistan” in Ukraine. That was what it was explicitly stated at the time we hoped the Russians would become embroiled in.
Some hoped the resultant destabilisation would result in the break-up of the RF. Some for “regime change” in Russia that would probably have led to the same thing. At the least, and with so much hoped for from the sanctions war, it wasn’t unrealistic to expect that the Russians would have had a very difficult time had they gone in and taken the entirety of the country in February/March 2022 as we expected.
Instead the Russians did something entirely unexpected. They sat back, behind greatly superior artillery, and let the Kiev forces and the Western equipment they were furnished with come to them to be destroyed.
That simplified account leaves out of the reckoning a host of other factors but it is, stripped down to the bone, the military justification for the approach the Russians took to the SMO. They declined the war we were hoping they would fight and fought the war they knew they would win.
I remember that time vividly. There was the original dramatic burst of military activity. Then nothing much seemed to be happening. “What on earth’s going on?” I thought, “why aren’t we seeing them liberating Odessa? Why aren’t we seeing them heading purposefully for Lvov?” Since I believe the Russians are in the right in this war I, like many others, was disappointed they didn’t seem to be putting their full effort into finishing it quickly.
Late March, I think it was, I understood they’d made the only possible military decision. A million casualties later I’m still disappointed that the circumstances were such that that decision had to be made. But had they not made it they’d still be bogged down in a brutal and prolonged partisan war.
It would have been a very nasty war, that partisan war the Russians sidestepped. Here the comparison with Syria is particularly relevant. The Ukrainian population has mixed loyalties. There’d have been a concealed civil war, and atrocities resulting. These would have been laid at the door of the Russians and world opinion would have swung against them. And the Russian troops policing the turmoil would have become demoralised and ineffectual, just as the Western troops in Afghanistan became. It would truly have been “Russia’s Afghanistan”.
So, Syria. It’s a terrible thing that’s happened there. Should the Russians and Iranians have stepped in and stopped it?
The decision not to must have been made weeks or months ago. The Aleppo man in the street knew well in advance that the Jihadist offensive was coming out of Idlib. It’s inconceivable that Russian and Iranian Intel didn’t also know.
They also knew that the SAA was no longer an effective fighting force. Those brutal sanctions and the loss of the eastern portion of Syria had emasculated the Syrian economy – 85% down according to some – and corruption and internal political problems had done the rest.
And the attacks were not merely out of Idlib. They came from four or maybe even five directions. To hold Syria in those circumstances would have required a major commitment and, more significantly, direct confrontation with the Israelis and the Americans and the Turks.
So, a major commitment to an unwinnable conflict. Unwinnable because even had the Russians faced down the Israelis and the Americans and the Turks, they would have been left attempting to police a vicious internal war. Another “Russia’s Afghanistan” and I do believe that that’s what their opponents hoped for.
The Russians are confronted with the combined West. Their allies often doubting Thomas’ rather than brothers in arms, most waiting still to see which way the cat jumps before committing. Forget Escobar’s “Axis of Resistance”, as he characterises the Brics countries. More accurately, the Russian support consists in the main of hesitant and fearful allies of necessity. Those are not the circumstances in which to take on an unwinnable war in Syria. That is the military reality.
………………………………..
Syria will likely become a hellhole for the people living there. The genocide in Gaza, the ethnic cleansing in the West Bank, and the assault on Lebanon will likely intensify. Israel and Turkey will likely take more land under this or that pretext. We shall see, are seeing in the UK already, triumphalist headlines proclaiming “Putin’s humiliation”.
Not so. In fact Putin has again avoided the bait. Military reality has again prevailed. Those of us who are angry that it should be so should reflect that we ourselves have caused the Syrian tragedy, as we have caused so many other tragedies elsewhere. And that we Europeans, the Germans, the French, the British, are as complicit as the US in this wanton destruction of yet another country.
”Will Turkiye try to carve out a greater Turkiye?” Yes, they already started, taking Tel Rifaat and the Shahba Canton. And now they are bombing and shelling SDF in Manbij and sending in their mercenary headchoppers. Bad pun by the way.
”Will Israel try to carve out a greater Israel?” Yes again. The IDF has just invaded and occupied the Syrian section of Mount Hermon. They also moved into the UN Buffer Zone, crossed The Purple Line, and have penetrated Syria’s Quneitra Governate. Last week, while militants were moving south from Aleppo, the IAF bombed some of Assad’s bases. Therefore helping the militants, either inadvertantly, or deliberately (most likely).
Leith,
And here we were told, with authority, that the IDF is only suited for shooting helpless civilians – kind of like drunken Russian officers only good for shooting their own enlisted conscripts. Lol. I guess we’ll see how they do against Turks – or at least their assorted Takfiri attack dogs. My bet is on the IDF.
Like I said, it’s going to be a war of everyone against everyone with all of the civilians caught in the crossfire getting killed and refugeed, but these are ordinary civilians, and not sacred civilians, like the Palestinians and Ukrainians. Therefore, I suppose it’s ok that they die en masse because the greater good and all of that.
Eric – The IDF ground forces learned their lesson after what some called their 2006 debacle in southern Lebanon. In any case their move to Mount Hermon and also across The Purple Line was unopposed. And at least one source said that Russia troops had turned their base in Daraa in the south over to the Israelis.
IAF has always been a top shelf air force, better than the majority of the world.
Old guys like Colonel Lang and myself didn’t like the Izzies because of their repeated attacks on the USS Liberty that killed 34 Americans and wounded 171. That was almost 60 years ago, so maybe I should put those feelings aside. They certainly didn’t deserve October 7th but Netanyahu’s shortsightedness allowed that to happen.
Leith,
“The IDF ground forces learned their lesson after what some called their 2006 debacle in southern Lebanon.”
No shit. I have been saying that – here nonetheless – for the past year every time someone brings up their wishful whims about the IDF getting their ass kicked. Now you’re saying it. Amazing.
“Old guys like Colonel Lang and myself didn’t like the Izzies because of their repeated attacks on the USS Liberty that killed 34 Americans and wounded 171. That was almost 60 years ago, so maybe I should put those feelings aside.”
The US and Israel had a different relationship back then. On the other hand, my old man – a WW2 Pacific Theater combat vet – continued to hate Japanese to the day he died in 2012. He wouldn’t buy a Japanese made camera and would occasionally lecture people driving Japanese cars. When the old shrapnel wound in his knee acted up, he’d really go full psycho on anything and everything Japanese related. So, I guess there is an alternative to moving on and getting with the times. How does the USS Liberty effect current IDF combat effectiveness?
Eric –
I felt the same way about German and Japanese made cars. German troops in Italy had put my old man through four years in and out of Army and VA hospitals. And my uncle Richard was at Iwo and Okinawa. But Dad is the one that told me to let it go, that hatred was poison for the soul.
Letting go of old resentments has nothing to do with “getting with the times”. We’re Americans, not Bedouin tribesmen involved in some raghead blood feud between family clans, or Sicilian mafiosi keeping vendettas alive for multiple generations.
Leith,
The Japanese and the Germans repented and changed their ways.
In the MENA, no one has repented or changed their ways. Everything that was yesterday is today and tomorrow. Therefore, there must be vendetta. Reconciliation is weakness when there has been no triumph.
CentCom sent B-52s, F-15s and A-10s to strike 75 ISIS targets in the desert areas south of Deir ez-Zor. Why now. I would expect that there was a lot of ISIS comms and perhaps they came out of their ratholes to race the SDF to the Euphrates right bank when the SAA left Deir ez-Zor. That gave CentCom a targeting bonanza locating these guys. Assad controlled that area for years, yet he never made an effort to root them out.
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/u-s-launches-mass-airstrikes-against-targets-in-syria/
The speed of operations by ISIL in the Badiya had picked up through 2023 and 2024, roughly tripling each time over the previous year. Action was taken in Q3 (https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3955844/defeat-isis-mission-in-iraq-and-syria-past-60-days/) and the current sorties are directly related to this work, which had been carried out without much fanfare. Most maps show four to five different pockets of ISIL control in the desert, which are stable and surround Tadmor/Palmyra. The weakness of the SAA, combined with foreign allies and crony businessmen like the Qatarjis simply paying ISIL directly to keep the road safe both appear to me as key factors for this enduring presence. Whoever replaces the SAA will not be much stronger. So the limiting factor for ISIL re-growth will depend on how they can siphon off protection money from the continuation of a strong East-West trade (Captagon manufacture in West Syria, transit for “axis of resistance” to Iraq, the oil).
Wunduk –
Wonder if the al-Qatarji bigwig (AKA Hossam Katerji) is in Moscow now with the Assad’s? Or will he make his peace with the new Syria?
Regarding the Captagon (AKA fenethylline) drug trade there is this from Wikipedia:
“The Assad regime’s annual fenethylline revenues were estimated to have been worth US$57 billion in 2022, about three times the total trade of all Mexican drug barons.[20][21][4]
For the Qaterjis / Katarjis, I would bet on Lebanon. That is where the company has assets, can rely on some Hezbollah protection and stay close to Damascus. As the new masters remain under (different kind of) sanctions, their services might be required.
There will be first a big outflow of armaments, guess all of us saw really nice T90S at 25Div HQ near Hama a few days ago. No longer there!
The Qatarji home turf between DEZ and Abu Kamal is now contested between ICF backed units, some SDF who made it across the river, and HTS units who drove through the desert through which the SAA tried to retreat.
Heard some reports of unlucky Russians stuck in Palmyra. Guess all Russians who manage to contact the HTS foreign guest handlers can expect to be escorted out by them and protected against other factions. Maybe even with their kit. What the sea journey home will bring, only Budanov knows.
Wunduk –
Regarding Tartus and Khmeimim:
“The head of the Defense Committee in the Russian State Duma, Andrei Kartapolov, stated that the security of Russian military bases is guaranteed.”
https://ria.ru/20241209/siriya-1988117275.h
But I would bet the other 100 or so Russian sites in Syria have been abandoned or soon will be.
HTS is on the state department’s foreign terrorist organization list. Plenty of targets out in the open, who cut the deal not to kill them while we had the chance?
Fred,
We left it to the SAA, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah to deal with HTS in all its many forms for years. We dealt with ISIS alongside the YPG. Surely you don’t want us to get more involved than we already are.
TTG,
NATO ally Turkey just supported putting HTS into power in Damascus. I’m sure somebody (not FJB) was aware of what was going down. Perhaps we should shitcan most of the flag ranks and Ivy Leaguers running our policy establishment and start over.
Fred,
Turkey does not support HTS and they certainly don’t direct them. They support and direct the SNA militias.
I don’t know how closely our intelligence has been watching HTS lately, but they were talking about relaxing the terrorist designation for HTS last year.
Fred –
Qatar financed HTS.
In southern Syria the Druze-Arab coalition got some support from friends in Jordan.
Leith,
By Qatar you mean the UK is funded them.
Fred,
Qatar’s wealth fund for such investments dwarfs that available to the UK.
That list seems to only be used when it is beneficial. I remember a company in my battalion protecting the MEK at Camp Ashraf. Apparently JSOC would send them to a DOE facility in Utah for training in tradecraft, raids, tactics, and assassinations then passed off to the Mossad, all while they were on the DoS terror list.
https://web.archive.org/web/20220823150409/https://www.haaretz.com/2012-04-07/ty-article/report-u-s-israel-helped-train-iranian-dissidents/0000017f-e22f-d7b2-a77f-e32f03e10000
https://web.archive.org/web/20120408191216/http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2012/04/mek.html
https://web.archive.org/web/20120409205046/https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-terrorist-organization-trained-by-us-in-nevada-2012-4
https://web.archive.org/web/20120209184515/http://rockcenter.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/08/10354553-israel-teams-with-terror-group-to-kill-irans-nuclear-scientists-us-officials-tell-nbc-news
Odds are we will end up with a similar system in a few years but now based on Salafist ideas. That is the normal course of events after revolutions. They rarely change political culture. IIRC it’s less than 10% chance of a change.
Think Mexico, Russia (1917), Iran, Iraq, Tunesia. Syria will rank among them.
Syria is being carved up between Turkey, Israel and the USA/SDF.
Turkey continuing to expand a buffer through proxies as is Israel.
Perhaps we will see a pipeline or two going from Eastern Syria to Israel and maybe the much vaunted Qatar-Turkey-Europe pipeline will be built.
Unlike Libya I think Syria is too geopolitically important to just be left to the Jihadists to squabble over.
Hezbollah has lost its main supply corridor, perhaps Israel will go for broke and try and snuff them out for good?
Eretz Israel is a little closer to becoming a reality.
We will see.
Tweet from ‘U.S. Embassy Syria’ that reads “Stop This Terrorist Muhammad Al-Jawlani”, with a large photo of Al-Jawlani’s smiling face and the offer of a $10 million dollar reward:
https://x.com/USEmbassySyria/status/864144602584035328
We live in a George Orwell novel.
It’s been a very bad week for Russia. The Ruble is crashing, Georgia uprising, and they lost their foothold in the Middle East. Russia no longer has a say in blocking Saudi and Gulf Arab oil and gas from reaching Europe via the Mediterranean coast. Putin is losing his monopoly on European energy.
Oh and Biden-Trump tag team is about to hot tag the come back champ and WWE Hall of Famer. The Russian economy is currently on life support through oil prices and their war economy. Trump intends to end the war (death sentence) and ramp up domestic production. The last time he tried this stunt, Saudis stepped in to wipe out our fracking. Oil crashed at -$15 a barrel.
condottiere,
When a country is self sufficient in food and energy, its not clear that a depreciating currency is bad for it. It increases demand for domestically produced goods both at home and abroad.
I don’t know who you have been reading to conclude that the Russian economy is currently on life support but I read BenAris and I think he is the most reliable commentator on the Russian economy:
https://x.com/bneeditor/status/1857466259534708740
I agree with you about Gulf Arab oil now being free to reach Europe – this is a huge strategic defeat for Russia.
You mean a depreciating currency with unprecedented sanctions?
Condottiere,
China has not imposed sanctions on Russia and China is the world’s factory.
condottiere,
How many years before that ME oil shows up in Europe by something other than ships?
Fred,
There’s definite talk of a gas pipeline from Qatar to Europe.
TTG,
There was talk of a pipeline from Libya to Italy too. Then surprise, Libya got color revolutions. Italy is still stuck in the EU, kind of like Germany.
A blast from George Galloway, whom I have held in affection since his courageous appearance at a Senate Committee Hearing way back. Thanks to a reference on MOA, (“Freedom Fritos”).
A powerful blast. It takes a George Galloway to point out the sheer lunacy of handing Syria over to the old ISIS second in command. Crazy town, as Washington must now be called, putting ten million dollars on Jolani’s head and at the same time publicly wishing him and his gang of cutthroats well.
Set to where Galloway expresses his blank dismay at what has happened and looks at possible consequences. At around 9 minutes. Before then he talks of a shrine destroyed. If so, and if that is the pattern for the future, there’s going to be a deal of horror for the western media to cosmeticise.
“Blood Baath,”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_6vER5F-zU
But the western media’ll be up to the necessary cosmetic work. No pig too big, is the motto of those employed to apply the lipstick.
A closer look from Alastair Crooke, in which he refutes Galloway’s assertion that the Russians abandoned Assad and asserts that Assad abandoned, or was in the course of abandoning, Russia and Iran. Instead, Assad was attempting to draw closer to the Gulf States and had been explicitly rejecting earlier offers of help from both the Russians and the Iranians.
Crooke confirms that the Russians, and the Iranians and the Turks, were aware of the attack on Syria well in advance. But Assad refused to take the warnings seriously. Crooke relates how the Pentagon mentored Jihadis from the South and the CIA mentored Jihadis from the North closed in on Damascus. Don’t know how Crazy Town is going to apply the lipstick to that but they will!
https://youtu.be/UX2X9KT9Xmg?t=138
I had been meaning to search out Crooke’s take. He is the most sober and best informed, I think, of all who talk of this region. He also keeps a close eye on events in Israel and reports great contentment there with recent events. No doubt.
Trump wants to keep selling fracked gas to Europe. He may well nix the pipeline thru SDF territory.
Unless he gets some type of ‘tit-for-tat’ offer, Let’s hope that if he does that there will be a benefit to America and not just to Trump’s personal bank account.
Leith,
“…not just to Trump’s personal bank account.”
That didn’t take long. Sad. As to SDF territory, let them defend it all by themselves. I’m sure they can cut a deal with Erdogan just like HTS did.
SDF going on the chopping block. Will we see the Turkish army give a hand in crushing them?
https://t.me/Suriyak_maps/4723
Poul,
The Turkish-controlled SNA jihadis and ISIS cells have never stopped attacking the SDF and YPG. It’s SNA militias trying to push the Kurds out of Manbij. The HTS actually concluded some agreements with the SDF last year. They’re been fighting the SNA and al-Qaeda cells for longer than that.
US sells out the Kurds. I wonder if the SNA will go for Raqqa.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/rebels-take-north-syria-town-us-backed-group-turkish-source-says-2024-12-09/
Baud, well informed on the military side as one would expect, giving his assessment:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KotIIu0NTgI&ab_channel=DialogueWorks
Baud also touching on the very different type of polity – strange looking to Western eyes – that obtains in many ME countries. This is where the Colonel’s insight and experience would have been invaluable. He understood these societies too – though he didn’t always like them!
Also a convincing explanation of Assad’s conduct.
On telegram there already are one video where terrorists in Syria shoot a man in a hospital bed (I think he’s a Kurd – SDF soldier), a few videos of execution of Alawites and former SAA fighters , a video of execution of two Alawites in Homs, etc.
Jovan –
The shooters in the hospital were SNA terrorists backed by Erdogan. They murdered tens of injured SDF fighters in that hospital in Manbij City.
Yesterday, they “carried out identity-bases executions and assaulted properties of nearly 30,000 Kurdish families in Manbij City.” They’ve been looting and setting fire to properties of Kurdish civilians there. They carried out what they called ‘vengeance operations’ in Nawaha and Al-Asadiya neighbourhoods and Al-Jazeera road, where they burnt houses of civilians, stole their properties, insulted them and executed at least three people including a woman.
I have no clue about the execution of Alawites in Homs, at least not in 2024. There were 100s murdered a year ago by ISIS and Jaish al-Muhajireen Wal-Ansar. But I don’t think that was in Homs.
Just saw this Joshua Landis tweet. He says that Maghawir al-Sham is the group murdering Alawites in the Homs countryside. They are backed by Erdogan and are part of his SNA terrorist army. They were formerly known as Ahrar al-Sham. they are not part of the HTS coalition.
https://x.com/joshua_landis/status/1866545943195304307
Leith,
For crying out loud, for the umpteenth time, a jihadi is a jihadi is a jihadi. Syria is now under control of jihadis.
It doesn’t matter what the damn US government IO machine tells us about how this or that particular group is different from some other group, or how the slimy takfiris market themselves. It’s all BS.
The public facing US government is a collection of lying, amoral, yes-sir! idiots controlled, behind the scenes, by a mafia like organization – and you and I aren’t made members – or at least I know I’m not.
Col Lang spoke extensively about “The borg”. Have you forgotten? Those are the Yes-Sir! Idiots. The mafia-esque types set the agenda. Sorry, I digress, a bit.
Go ahead and peer through your microscope, creating your Lamarckian categorizations of various scum bag species under the auspices of the mafia’s IO if creating distinctions without meaning makes you happy, or completes your mission or fulfills whatever.
Eric –
In the case of the murders, looting and vengeance operations against the SDF in Manbij and against Alawites in the Homs country side, it is important to place the blame accurately. Those atrocities were done by Turkish backed headchoppers, nobody else.
You’re right about HTS. I don’t excuse them or whitewash them.
But you’re wrong about the Assads. They’ve been ruling Syria with a reign of murder, mass arrests, targeting civilians & hospitals, and using chemical weapons for over fifty years. Plus during all that time they’ve attacked America’s strategic partner, Israel. Good riddance, may Bashar freeze his cojones off in Moscow.
Another time Eric and I will agree. There is no difference between the jihadis. The question is are they “our jihadis” or one of the “bad jihadis.” Bin Laden was “our jihadi” and there are even news articles talking about bin Laden and his troops changing into more acceptable ideologies…..before 9/11. Just like Saddam Hussein. The US was partners with him even when he gassed Kurds and Iranians. He only became “bad” when he was no longer in our camp. The Saudis are responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Yemenis, but they are okay. Assad, who did the same thing EVERY leader in the Middle East would do, is bad because he is not in our camp. If he was in our camp we would have been sending him arms and money to keep him in power.
Dont even get me started with the “Countering Violent Extremist” (CVE) movement in the west. I knew one that is a well known Muslim speaker in the CVE movement. Traveling around the US, Canada and Europe speaking on how to fight against extremists. Only it turns out he was supporting Islamists in Syria. When I pointed out to him and others that some of the groups he supported in Syria had killed religious and ethnic minorities, beheading and murdering civilians.. His response was literally something along the lines of “they didnt kill that many.” The whole thing is a joke.
Stefan,
Yes, We are in agreement. The whole Assad = bad dictator who did things argument is a sick joke. How the hell else are you going to deal with murdering insurrectionists that seek to destroy your country, which is a relatively pretty good country? What leader in their right mind allows insurrectionists to violently seize control of the government?
I will even give Saddam a pass on killing some Kurds for the same reason.
Or maybe people think Canada should allow Quebec to become its own country. Maybe Lincoln should have allowed the South to secede. Maybe the UK should have caved into the IRA’s demands.
You and I have already said all there is to say about the myth of good jihadis versus bad jihadis.
The deep state IO on this is insultingly stupid. Sad that it gets repeated here.
SNA terrorist backed by Turkey and the US.
Meanwhile the US government lie machine tells us that freedom reigns because Assad bad bad dictator and rebels good good, like George Washington.
It always interests me how bloody revolutions in other countries are colored as good by the US lie machine, if the rebels are deemed somehow favorable to US objectives, no matter how obscure, covert, misguided, short-term, immoral and addle brained the reality is.
But Jan 6!!!!!!!! INSURECTION!!!!!!!!! Trump winning! End of the world scenario!!!!!!!!!!! Such an assault an Democracy (registered trademark)!!!!!!!!!!!!! World turned upside down!!!!!!!!!! Raw Evil Running Lose!!!!!!! Must be stopped!!!!
What kind of tools buy into all of this political manipulation? Who the hell, with a lick of common sense, believes anything any government blob member says about anything?
Advice to Deep State – you’ll have to try harder. Craft better bull shit. You’re weak BS is eroding your grasp on power. Good luck.
Eric –
The US does not now and has never backed the Syrian National Army (SNA). We support the SDF coalition of Kurds and Christians in NE Syria, who are targets of SNA atrocities.
You have spent too much time in the Land of Fruits and Nuts. Get your butt out of California before you become stark raving bonkers like the rest of them. Come on up to the great state of Washington. I’ll introduce you to my neighbor the cat lady who is still flying her Trump signs a month after he won the election. If you’re allergic to cat hair, or to her nasty vocabulary, there are plenty of other MAGA-ettes in the area.
I am not in California. Went there for a long weekend a few months ago, but that was the first time in many years.
Eric –
Glad to hear you’re not in Cali. And glad to see no massive use of exclamation points in your last. But wherever you are, get out of there for your own peace of mind and come to the easy-going Evergreen State.
Leith,
Been there more than once. Too much rain and too many big slugs and too many damn leftists. Pikes Place Market is pretty good though.
Eric –
It’s not rain, just a light drizzle. We call it liquid sunshine. It’s a four hour drive for me to Seattle. I haven’t been back since the Seattle SuperSonics were sold to Oklahoma by the CEO of Starbucks.
Slugs? You can also find those down in Cali. They revere the slimy critters.
https://www.amazon.com/UCSC-Santa-Cruz-Banana-T-Shirt/dp/B0CKWSJVNK/ref=pd_lpo_d_sccl_3/136-9873621-0970125?pd_rd_w=cM5t8&content-id=amzn1.sym.4c8c52db-06f8-4e42-8e56-912796f2ea6c&pf_rd_p=4c8c52db-06f8-4e42-8e56-912796f2ea6c&pf_rd_r=TPW2PNW5G9NX2SSFGD2V&pd_rd_wg=NMFUx&pd_rd_r=24191607-ec61-4e98-9490-af571e13aaf8&pd_rd_i=B0C4376ZT2&psc=1
Been looking around various accounts. Haven’t checked the blogger “Simplicius” for a while. Maybe a mistake. Just started on him. A cornucopia of information, links, videos, that’s source material in itself.
But looking at the Western press, there seems to be a flat refusal to recognise that the destruction of this country has been a Western aim for two decades. The Baud account above sets that out most clearly and shows how the US and allies used the Jihadis as attack dogs in places and held them back in others. But we knew that already from Obama’s time. A targeted destruction of Syria, then, with the brutal sanctions a grievous injury to the country as well, an injury from which it never recovered.
The final blow was psywar more than direct military conquest or rather, a mixture of the two. Why it happened in this way is not as yet entirely clear. Preparations and training were known about for years beforehand, and were known about by all parties. Yet nothing was done to avert the tragedy. Perhaps there was nothing could be done.
Perhaps the Russians and Iranians, and Assad, were fooled by the belief that the Astana process would hold. Lavrov, in his interview in Turkey, was obviously shaken and angry that Turkey had reneged on the agreement. I think the Russians may be too ready, as with Minsk 2, to trust to agreements holding.
Sleboda, in a section of the video before the link, makes the point that after this the Russians will never be talked into any sort of temporary agreement with the West over Ukraine – though my view since ’22 is that they were never going to be in any case.
Also in the Western press the cosmeticising of the reprisals even now in progress. They talk as if we did not cause the tragedy and also talk as if the atrocities are relatively minor events, if they mention them at all. But they are already murderous.
It was a very special place, Syria. So say relatives of mine who travelled the country when it was at peace and so say all who write about it. We Westerners, most of us, know nothing of that and we shall celebrate our Christmas with good cheer, not knowing what we have destroyed. How much will remain now is a matter of guesswork. I hope some does.
Vanessa Beeley managed to escape, seemingly at the last minute. In the video, set to 40 minutes, she talks of her escape and what she witnessed before she left. It’s the first account I’ve seen from a Westerner living in Damascus at the time the Jihadis came in.
https://youtu.be/_MTz_0aWr2U?t=2423
EO,
Assad, the Russians and Iran left Idlib to fester for years. That’s something Colonel Lang noted years ago. Both he and I knew it was a mistake. The Syrians are lucky it was HTS that emerged from that witch’s cauldron and not a larger SNA or ISIS. What will the HTS bring? Judging by the last five years in Idlib, there’s a reasonable chance it could be better than Assad. At least they’re not dealing enough captagon to fill the entire Mideast and they’re emptying the prisons rather than filling them… so far.
But you’re observation that the West has been trying to destroy the Assad regime for two decades is correct.
TTG – I’d been hoping for a couple of years and more that you’d get back to those brilliant Syria Sitreps you used to do. And then reflecting that there wasn’t enough going on there to warrant them. Bit of a fool, wasn’t I.
Still looking around to see what the various analysts make of it. A different angle from Colonel Macgregor. Essentially in line, though, with that of Crooke or Baud or Sleboda.
Of all the American analysts Colonel Macgregor to my mind gives the best explanation of how the US finds its destiny steered by the combination of interest groups in Washington – he calls them “the donors” – rather than finding its destiny steered in accordance with the true interests of “We the people”.
That rings true to a European. We also find our future determined by coteries of remote politicians who work more for the interest groups than for us. Politicians who are not much use running a country; but who know very well how to fashion for us the dreams that coax us into following them. Hatreds too in our case, hatreds in Europe being easier to play on.
And since Macgregor has worked within the circles of power in Washington, that lends yet more credibility to his account. Also fits with Colonel Lang’s account of how US foreign policy gradually became the exclusive preserve of the neocons.
But here Macgregor’s getting down to the nuts and bolts of the disaster in Syria. He asserts that the Jihadis who broke in recently were trained and supported by Mossad, the USA and the UK.
Some sharp-eyed observer on MOA claims to have seen proof that Jolani’s Zelensky style outfit was made in Israel. Seems most unlikely – it would be a very silly mistake to make – but if that indeed were so, why not? This is, as Sleboda states, a great defeat for Syria, Russia and Iran and a great victory for Netanyahu. Reading our papers, a great victory for the combined West as well.
He states that the US has a tiger by the tail in encouraging the expansionist aims of Turkey and Israel.
I think I’m correct in reading him as stating that the Israelis and Turks were in league – which is odd given that most Muslims in the ME, including those in Turkey, are supposed to be in a white hot fury of indignation about the Gaza and West Bank atrocities.
He considers that this might be the final extinguishing of the Christian communities in Syria and possibly in Iraq. If so, seems it took the West to do what the Ottomans did not do. Pretty damning, that when contrasting Western hegemony with Ottoman the Ottomans come out well ahead.
He considers that Iran is the next target. Hope not, but it’s a most unstable country so we could be in with a chance there too, as we pursue our plans for further laying waste the region in pursuit of this or that ephemeral “geopolitical” objective.
I don’t myself, as a Westphalian, have a lot of time for these fancy geopolitical objectives. These much lauded moves on the Grand Chessboard usually result in vast quantities of corpses and nothing whatsoever of benefit to me and my family. Not even sure this particular move will benefit the donors that much either.
https://youtu.be/aAZElAXfLwI?t=137
EO,
I found a couple of good articles that describe the steps HTS has been taking over the last five years in preparation for this offensive and the difficulties Russia has been having with both Syria and Iran over efforts to modernize the SAA. Both were eye opening. I’ll publish something based on those two articles soon.
Too many, you included, tend to attribute far more power to us Americans than we really possess. The world is far more multipolar than you realize. The US, Russia, Iran, the various countries of Europe and most others try to act in what they perceive is their best interests and none of them really get all they want. However, Israel seems to get away with doing anything she wants at the moment with little real pushpack from anybody else.
“the US finds its destiny steered by the combination of interest groups in Washington – he calls them “the donors” ”
Compare
“How the Neocons Won the Transition”
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/how-the-neocons-won-the-transition/
TTG – I didn’t write clearly here – “We also find our future determined by coteries of remote politicians who work more for the interest groups than for us.”
I don’t mean your politicians! I mean the politicians of Berlin/Brussels/Westminster. I have never considered that our European woes are down to Washington.
The European politicians do have, after all, what it is fashionable to call “agency”. That is, if they had not wished to work with Washington they need not have. In fact I argue that the European politicians, rather than being subservient to Washington, consistently sought to leverage US military, financial and economic power in pursuit of their own aims.
Hasn’t worked. The frantic European efforts we saw and are still seeing to keep the Americans in the game in Ukraine even as the Americans are pulling clear show that. Without American power to leverage there is in fact no “game” to be played in Ukraine any longer.
The consequences are apparent. Used to be that what Scholz or Merz or Von der Leyen said was listened to. Who listens to them now? Or to Starmer?
Before 2022, with American backing to leverage, the EU, UK trailing along vociferously behind, had international clout. Now, without that backing, it does not. It becomes a bedraggled and impotent player, as is clear from the scant attention now paid to it by the emerging Great Powers of the East. Obviously the main losers of this failed attack on Russia are the unfortunate Ukrainians we used as the means of attack. They lose a million casualties and their country. But we Europeans are also losers to a lesser degree, as the United States is not.
So no, I don’t see our European woes as down to Washington. I do not agree with the many Europeans who are starting to blame the US for those woes. Our European politicians were not led astray and then abandoned by the devious Washington neocons, as is becoming current dogma among so many. Those European politicians thought to play their own hand on the back of US power. Turned out that US power was inadequate to the task. So they gambled and lost, disastrously.
Until the European politicians face up to that, and we the Europeans peoples with them, we shall have little chance of putting ourselves on the road to recovery.