There is a critically difficult situation in the Pokrovsky direction, which requires immediate systemic and considered decisions of the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. Over the past seven days, the enemy advanced 6 km in the direction of Mirnograd-Pokrovsk. On a narrow sector of the front, the flanks were shot through, but advanced. The city of Myrnograd is 14 km away. A total of 14. Myrnograd is in the zone of long-range artillery fire. If the enemy is allowed to enter Myrnohrad, they get a zone of concentration and accumulation, and will be able to attack Pokrovsk itself. The Pokrovsk-Myrnograd agglomeration is the last area of defense before the Dnipropetrovsk region. The enemy is very close. The situation is critical as the pace of enemy advance is alarming.
According to the commanders and soldiers who defend the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd region, the main problem in the conditions of intensive operations is primarily the management and organization of our actions. The Russian command attacks primarily those brigades that have the weakest management and organization, weak control and coordination. That is, the enemy is looking for and suppresses not the most vulnerable lines of defense, but the most vulnerable units and associations.
When a weakly led brigade is attacked, it cannot hold even a narrow line. Therefore, all arriving replenishment and reserves go to strengthen weak units that carry the biggest losses. This does not allow us to create significant tactical reserves, which have time for additional training, could more often carry out unit rotations of fighters , and manning the second and third lines of defense.
The lack of prepared defensive positions, reliable fortifications occupied by the troops, does not allow stopping the enemy at any border. The combat is virtuously continuous during the offensive. The Russians advance in a patterned and predictable manner. The Russians carry out frontal attacks of small groups of infantry with great losses, the enemy’s advance is very difficult. They also send everyone they can into battle, their companies are exhausted to the last man. The main axis of attack is along the railway track. It is convenient to hide there and disguise yourself in landings. Everyone understands this, but making this route impassable by engineering means is not yet successful.
A critical problem is the lack of a single competent leadership of all drone forces. Drones and EW tools, which continue to be used scattered and uncoordinated. Our own EW destroys a significant number of our own drones. Drone units receive tasks without taking into account tactical and technical capabilities. I cannot say that the Ukrainian command does not see and does not understand the criticality the situation A lot is being done, none of the commanders sit idly by.
Commander-in-Chief Syrsky pays personal attention. But we are obviously late in reacting, although the enemy’s plans are obvious, good for us are known and the intelligence gives a good idea of the next steps. The direction lacks coordinated brigade headquarters, the logic of the use of troops and ammunition. Setting tasks for weak staffs of poorly organized brigades is this ignoring the real combat capability of the troops, this practice is sharply criticized in the military. Brigade headquarters are a key element of combat capability. Attempts to pull a bunch of subdivisions on some area does not give an effect if there is no single clear one application logic.
The situation requires focusing on the direction of at least one brigade with a high-quality headquarters that will be able to establish combat management of disparate units in the area of the breakthrough and support reserves of the brigades holding the flanks of the enemy’s breakthrough to Myrnograd. Why do inexperienced brigade commanders and weak brigade staffs continue to rule while the ground forces command keeps in reserve dozens of experienced commanders with reputations earned in hard battles of 22-23 years? How to explain it? Why is the personnel problem not solved, even though everyone sees that it is the main problem, and even though we have experienced personnel?
Systematic solutions are needed, need to stop misleading ourselves, need those measures which will be supported by competent commanders of brigades and battalions in the area and the command link should be strengthened urgently.
https://www.facebook.com/butusov.yuriy
Comment: This sober analysis of a difficult part of the Donbas front is by Yuriy Butusov based in Kyiv, a reporter, fund raiser and volunteer in a drone unit. He doesn’t shy away from reporting on difficult subjects including instances of gross corruption. His reporting puts a face on the corrupt and incompetent. He also reports heroic stories from the front, putting a face on the heroes as well.
In this report, Butusov points out a glaring weakness in the Ukrainian Armed Forces… the unevenness in the effectiveness of various brigades, especially the battalion and brigade leadership. The better units not only have effective leadership, but also enjoy great success in recruiting replacements. Units such as the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade conduct a 30 day unit training program to augment the normal training received by recruits. The 3rd Brigade and other units are closer to division size due to their effective recruiting, training and fund raising. Although this is great for these elite units, this is a terrible situation for the Ukrainian Army. You have a hell of a time holding a defensive line with a lot of weak links in the chain, much less launching any kind of coordinated offensive or counterattack.
Ideally, promising battalion and brigade leaders and staff officers should be identified and provided with CGSC and War College level training. However, is Ukrainian leadership willing to do without those promising leaders with the situation so critical and, more importantly, is Ukrainian leadership willing to utilize such leaders effectively once trained?
TTG
https://cepa.org/article/the-elite-ukrainian-brigade-everyone-wants-to-join/
Manpower is THE issue.
Management is only a consequence.
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Igor Romanenko:
“There is an acute shortage of military personnel in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In some sections of the front, soldiers are not enough even for defensive actions.
Indeed, the shortage of middle and junior commanders in the Ukrainian army leads to an increase in losses, especially among yesterday’s mobilized, who have no experience in warfare. The authorities, having arranged an unlimited “rehabilitation”, only strengthened the shortage of high-quality branch commanders, platoon commanders, company commanders, battalion commanders who would correctly make decisions and correctly use force and means, who are subordinate to them. As a result, desertion and the refusal of soldiers to go into “clear” storms that the government arranges for political purposes are growing in the Ukrainian army. Largely because of this, serious fortifications in the Donetsk region will pour out, many of which have been preparing for 8-10 years.”
In fact, it’s a desperate situation:
Ukrainian officer Maxim Skrynnik reports that in some Ukrainian battalions there are no more than 20-30 people left in the ranks and in some companies-no more than five.
Situation is also tense in New York with an entire brigade being cauldronized.
When the level break.
Faster and faster.
Modern War is mathematics.
And Ukraine has lost day one.
When the Levee Breaks.
Sorry
Led Zeppelin just ages so damn well.
aleksandar,
Judging by the T-shirts that the teenagers are wearing it would seem that AC/DC ages best, and Led Zeppelin ages second best (which is impressive).
Personally I am a Pink Floyd guy.
Modern music sucks.
Hendrix still has a loyal following (myself included) and archived material is being released to this day. It’s amazing how much that man produced in a few too short years.
Thx, I’ve kinda lost track of the [slow] movement of the front lines in Ukraine recently, good to catch up. Look like Russia is focusing on taking all of Donetsk Oblast, while also grinding up as many Ukrainian soldiers as they can. War sucks.
OP says that Russia is targeting units with weak leadership, which implies that they have good info & analysis on individual unit leaders all the way down to the brigade level. That seems like pretty deep detail, way more than I would have expected. Is that SOP in modern [info] warfare, or is that a Russian thing?
I was also surprised at the TTG’S casual mention of recruiting and fund-raising (!?) at the battalion and brigade (!!??) levels, which seems really weird to me, but might be “normal” in a force which evolved from separate militias funded by different Oligarchs?
Attacking weak targets is par for the course in war and not that hard to detect. Satellite and drone images of sloppy movements, broken down equipment, intercepted comms.
Surprisingly not many US officials have headed for the exits to slide back into their board member and think tank jobs. When that happens that’s a wrap for this war. Probably already is with most of our Troops in Japan and neighboring Asian puppet countries.
elkern – the composition and deployment of the various ultra-nationalist militias and internal units you mention is not entirely clear. Territorial defence forces, Border Guards, security units, military units – some under the command of the Ministry of the Interior, some, like the Aidar, under Defence Ministry and thus at least officially part of the regular army.
It’s a jumble and I’ve come across no analyst sorting that jumble out. They constitute, however, a key role politically. On the one hand they are the mainstay of the Zelensky administration, doing much of the work of ensuring internal security. As the dissatisfaction with the Zelensky administration threatens to break out into open rebellion they, in their internal security role, do significant work in keeping that popular dissatisfaction repressed.
On the other hand, they are the greatest threat to the Zelensky administration.
It is incorrect to assume, as so many do, that it is the West that is entirely responsible for keeping the unfortunate Ukrainians fighting. It is so in part, and that is the part one sees and objects to, but the ultra-nationalist forces also play a role in keeping Zelensky, as they see it, on the straight and narrow.
From Zolote until only yesterday that role has been stridently emphasised. If Zelensky seeks a settlement they threaten another Maidan. They have the clout to do just that and to kill Zelensky too.
So externally the Zelensky administration is under the control and direction of NATO, which has insisted from the start that Ukraine keep fighting but without being able to manufacture and supply the arms they need or to give them any decisive military support. Internally, however, Zelensky faces the threat from the ultra-nationalists while at the same time relying on them to hold the country down for him.
And one has to be extremely careful throwing the “ultra-nationalist” label around anyway. They’re there, they’ve had the whip hand since 2014, but their numbers are not that great and nor is the general support they get from the bulk of the Ukrainian population. Perhaps the closest parallel is with the Germany of Nazi times. An extremist faction in power and the greater part of the population not able to do much about it even were they inclined to.
Militarily the ultra-nationalist units are something of a mixed bag. Some are still not much better than street fighters in uniform. Some seem to be as effective as the Ukrainian regulars, by whom they are not much liked and with whom they occasionally come to blows. They are considerably more brutal and undisciplined than the regulars and one hears of accounts of their being killed at sight, particularly by the LDNR forces, or vice versa. It’s pretty well a blood feud between the LDNR forces and the ultra-nationalists so when they meet up the results are not always Geneva Convention.
Zaluzhnyi, Black Sun himself, tended to favour them and kept them out of the worst of the fighting. They are in any case semi-autonomous. If sent into the really hopeless battles, as in Avdeevka, they’re quite capable of assessing the situation for themselves and refusing the deployment. The remnants of the Azovstal Azov fighters, some released by Erdogan not long back and now reconstituted as the 12th Special Purpose Brigade Azov, are doing their own thing in the Serebryansk forest up towards Kreminna. They harbour the suspicion that Syrski’s deliberately putting them in harm’s way to get rid of them so don’t always take much notice of him.
I think one of the greatest successes of the Western press since ’22 has been the whitewashing of these ultra-nationalist extremists. Before ’22 there was plenty about them in the Western press. Then they stopped being undesirable thugs and became the heroes of today. I tried to look recently for a very good study from a reputable American University about the international reach of Azov and found it had been taken off line! Memory holed, at least as far as the average member of the public is concerned, and now all one can find about these groups are puff pieces often put out by the groups themselves.
On the other side there’s a tendency to paint all the Ukrainian forces as nothing but Azov and Aidar types. I believe that is equally erroneous and makes serious examination of them difficult. The plain fact is that before 2014 Ukraine had every chance of becoming a successful country within its then borders. Their main problem was massive corruption and maladministration. It was our fostering of these ultra-nationalist factions, and our ensuring they were the power behind the throne in Ukraine, that has led to the present disastrous condition of the country. Possibly to its disintegration.
EO,
The Aidar Battalion ceased to exist as a militia unit in 2015. It was disbanded by the Ukrainian MOD. Personnel cleared by investigation were allowed to enlist in the 24th Separate Assault Battalion. After several subordinate assignments, that battalion is now part of the 5th Separate Assault Brigade.
The Azov Regiment was integrated into the National guard after it recaptured Mariupol in late 2014. Although it began as a right wing militia, it became an effective military outfit. It eventually became a Territorial Defense Unit, then a National Guard Brigade. After its destruction in 2022 in Mariupol, it was reconstituted and became the 3rd Assault Brigade. It is probably the best fighting and most professional unit in the Ukrainian Army.
Neither of these units are even close to the unruly futbol hooligans they were when they were formed. But those hooligans had the initiative to organize and fight when the Ukrainian military was flat on its back. Although these modern units surely retain some of the cultural and political traits of their origins, they are not even close to those right wing militias of 2014. Zelenskiy and Ukraine rely on their military prowess and patriotism. They have no need to fear these units.
TTG,
Politicians always fear patriots because they can’t be controlled.
Jimmy_w,
Unless the politician is also a patriot
eo –
NATO has insisted from the start that Ukraine and Ukraine alone will decide to stop fighting back. It is only Kremlin talking points declare otherwise.
Lars – NATO has used Ukraine from the start as a weapon against Russia. It’s how we use our proxies, in this instance as in all others.
That broken country is the result. One need be no “Putin pal” to find what we have done shameful.
The shame compounded by the irresponsible incompetence with which we have thrown the lives of our proxies away.
EO,
Are Poland, the Baltics and other newer NATO countries also proxies? How about Finland and Sweden?
Leith – maybe I’d better emulate your President and retire to the basement for a while. Mixing names up like that is inexcusable. Apologies.
the Putin Push must be successful by Jan 20th, or Vlad may be gazing out an open window.
https://youtu.be/7tgqYWQKBnw
TTG, I have been browsing a very interesting book:
The tragedy of Russia’s reforms:
Market Bolshevism against Democracy
by Peter Reddaway and Dmitri Glinski
https://g.co/kgs/SsaizCJ
It is quite scholarly, having thousands of endnotes backing up the 700 pages of text.
To set the big picture, they begin with a two page table
“The cycles of state repression and instability in Russian/Soviet history”,
running from Ivan IV (the Terrible) in 1564 up to the collapse of the USSR, 1989-1991.
They briefly cover the early centuries, then as the decades pass, they get more detailed, finally focusing on the Gorbachev/Yeltsin years, and conclude with Putin becoming Yeltsin’s successor.
They try to cover both political and social developments in Russia and the USSR,
with lots of mentions of factions and individuals.
There is plenty of detail in it.
I just wonder if you, or anyone else here, has encountered this book, and if so have an opinion on it.
Keith Harbaugh,
Sounds interesting. I get the impression that the authors did not fall for the line that the Russian Federation is a complete break from the Soviet Union. I’ve always held there is tremendous continuity in the Kremlin deep state of the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation. I’m just guessing, but I think the authors are saying that the Western shock therapy did not mix well with those elements of the Soviet system that remained intact.
as Col. Lang often pointed out to us, & our FP, Intel & Military elites (to little avail, it seems); persistent culture transcends ideology & (to a lesser extent) economics. sure, it’s a generalization – but apt … & little respected by new arrivals on the scene – like America.
my not-so-novel take-away is that if you want to change a distinct / entrenched country in a lasting & rapid manner, w/ certainty; kill every man women & child, then colonize the place w/ one’s own folk & culture. Greeks & Romans (among many) did so when young… so did Americans.
There is, IMO, a particularly good review of this book at Foreign Affairs.
It begins
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/capsule-review/2001-05-01/tragedy-russias-reforms-market-bolshevism-against-democracy
What? A report on Ukraine showing where they are losing? I am shocked, just shocked that all those reports on victory (variously defined) was right around the corner. Next thing you know someone will tell me Biden is not in good health and Kamala will be the candidate…..
Well in fairness the “Right Around The Corner Club” has opened membership to Russophiles too.
That merging of optimists seems to have occurred when the “As Soon As The Ground Freezes Club” closed its doors and the “As Soon As The Ground Thaws Club” was raided by the local cops. The Right Around The Corner Club needed a membership boost anyhow when the “They Shoot Their Enlisted Men For Fun” and the “They’re Running Out Of Ammo Next Month” factions got old and left for the old and infirm memes nursing home.
Eric –
Never knew you had a talent for comic wit. Do more, please.
Some Reports say Russia has Concerns.. about Kamala.
.Those Were Not all Red Roosters
that came home…Came Out…Transformed ..Graduated From Charm
School…To Accept The Surrender..Again…Up in Smoke…and AI Mirrors.
Starting to look a lot like the Western Front in 1918, to be honest.
You know, the front line held, and held, and held, and then….. it didn’t.
Finished very quickly after the Second Battle of the Marne, much to everyone’s surprise.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Ukrainian lines don’t start to disintegrate before the November elections in the USA, once the Ukrainians work out that (a) Trump is going to win and (b) his Administration has no interest in Ukraine at all.
Once that sticks in the minds of the troops, well, what are they risking their lives for?
These comments remind me of Mark Twain and his “demise”. The winds of war blows back and forth. Let me remind you how this one started and where it ended up. I have long held that it will come down to economics and there Russia is at a serious disadvantage. They are losing about as many soldiers as they are recruiting and that is very corrosive, as is having to spend a huge part of their GDP on the military. There will come a tipping point and it is more likely for the Russians. Ukraine is getting more and better weapons and just take a look at the damage they have inflicted on the Russian Navy and Ukraine does not have one. Russia also have to contend with increasing internal problems that have already resulted in serious domestic attacks. So, I suggest that all you Putin pals wait a bit before you declare victory. It may not happen.
The economic war started about 10 years ago when China began dumping US treasuries. This coincided with the US couping of Ukraine. Back then, most didn’t know what BRICS was and if they did, it was considered a joke. A flimsy idea of a cheap easter basket of of stale currencies. Not so much anymore.
The US sanctioning 60% of poor countries forced them to say screw it. Might as well start using this basket along with some gold and see what happens. Well, it’s kinda happening. Slow process but big things start from small beginnings.
Lars,
How big a percent of GDP is Russia spending? Is that like the increased percent of GDP McNamara was claiming would run the North Vietnamese into oblivion? I recall someone pointed out to him that the percent he mentioned left just enough for other purposes to equal ten times what North Vietnam ever had before. That analyst wasn’t invited back.
Has already happened.
Day one.
Not for civilians of course,stuffed with propaganda ( economy, social unrest, Navy, Wunderwaffen and so).
But it was crystal clear for my friends in the Army, retired or on active duty.
A world class military versus a medium one.
Russians are slow at the beginning.
But once they start, they never give up.
aleksandar,
True, the Russians won’t give up. Putin is pumping 25 to 30,000 new bodies in the meat grinder every month. They are keeping up with the casualties. But they’re having trouble feeding and watering those troops.
Sorry TTG.
You, as me, are unable to know how many new bodies each side is pumping in the meat grinder every month.
But 360 000/year for Russians seems a little bit exaggerated.
Aleksandar –
Figure is more like 230,000/year. But that’s only if you distribute it evenly over the past 2.5 years. It’s a ramped up scale, it’s only lately that they started losing >1,000/month.
Lars,
A 152mm shell costs the Russian government between $500 and $600.
A 155mm shell costs Ukr suppliers between $4,000 and $6,000.
We conclude that Russia is 8 to 10 times less wealthy than the West. They are effectively out of the game…
I would like to add that Russian cars (design and manufacture) do not have video screens in the back seats. This is essential to keep children quiet on long trips.
It says a lot about their deprivation.
d74,
We are starting to see Russian communities suffering shortages of electricity and even water.
Are they now? Says who?
Yeah, Right,
It’s a matter of crumbling infrastructure. Ukrainian drone strikes don’t help. This year accidents at electricity, water, and heating supply systems have been registered in at least 43 Russian regions. Local authorities have blamed the water shortages on aging pipelines, many of which have not been repaired since Soviet times. Crimea has serious problems for obvious reasons.
5% economic growth in 2023-2024
Economic growth projected for 3% in 2024-2025.
Does that sound like a floundering economy?
Yeah, Right,
Growth fueled by a rapid draining of Russia’s reserve wealth fund along with the remarkably resilient oil and gas sector. The economy is being resovietized.
TTG,
The oil and gas economy can’t possibly be resilient, western sanctions were going to ruin them. So we were told……
Kind of like Joe being healthy and a lot more.
TTG: “The economy is being resovietized.”
Believe what you want to believe, no matter how ludicrous.
The Russian economy recently overtook Germany to be the fifth largest in the world, and by the end of this year will overtake Japan to move into fourth place behind China, USA and India.
I’ll note that just last week the IMF reclassified Russia as a “High Income Economy”, and with current projections the average Russian will be wealthier than the average German or Frenchman within the next two years.
If you want to call that a “resovietized economy” then feel free.
After all, it is just a slogan. Americans appear to be very good at those.
Lars – “Putin pals?”
I believe the war hysteria in the West is so great that all who attempt to look at the war objectively are dismissed as fifth columnists or traitors. But that same war hysteria has led us into disaster. Surely what we need in war is cool calculation of the odds, not reflexive dismissal of all who attempt that calculation?
That knee-jerk dismissal leads to what we’re seeing in Washington or Brussels. Politicians only wanting to hear facts and analysis that accords with their hopes. That accounting for the fact that the Western political and military leaders have screwed up so badly in this Ukrainian venture.
On casualty figures, don’t be taken in by the Western press. They’d have us believing the Russians are at their last gasp and do little else but throw “human waves” forward.
The aggregator sites, that is, sites that source information from both sides, are less gullible. This one details what the Ukrainians themselves are saying about the current state of play:-
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-72424-general-syrsky-shocks
But these days even the NYT or WAPO are letting the cat out of the bag more and more frequently. What we’re seeing at present is a blood-drenched disaster for the unfortunate Ukrainians and no pretending otherwise.
I’m an “England pal”, by the way. It’s where I live. Also a Donbass pal, a Gaza pal and a Syria pal. Or anywhere else our psycho politicians have been stirring up or assisting in mayhem. The Russians don’t need any “pals”. They seem to be quite happy dealing with our psycho politicians all by themselves.
It’d be good if those of us who make up our own minds on these matters weren’t routinely characterised in that way.
If Ukraine really cared about winning, they wouldn’t try “spreading the wealth” of reinforcing all units equally. If a brigade is doing well, then it should get more manning and expand up an echelon. 3rd Bde becoming a division is a good thing. The junior leaders are learning the right stuff. Maybe eventually they can have a whole corps of 3rd brigade descendants.
Imposing an organizational paradigm is a Western conceit and why the Afghan Army failed. Reinforcing Success is the proven way of begatting more success. Only a fool reinforce failures.
Jimmy_w,
Ukraine can’t afford to do that. The Russians are keeping near constant pressure across most of the front. Ukraine must defend across that front. That means all those less capable brigades serve a necessary purpose that a much smaller number of extremely capable brigades cannot do. They can’t be everywhere.
Sir do you see the discrepancy in your statements? In one statement you say that Putin is throwing 20 to 30 thousand soldiers to the meat grinder and now you say that the Russians are keeping constant pressure on Ukranians. So one can surmise that it is the Russians who are in the driver seat. If the Russians are using more ammo than the Ukranians and it is either that the Ukranians are losing more men or that the Russians are just squandering their ammo. Also at the same time the Ukranian staff is saying that they are losing ground. Very confusing.
Muralidhar Rao,
I see no discrepancy at all. Those 20 to 30 thousand mobiks per month are letting the Russians keep up with the casualty rate and keep the pressure on the Ukrainians. They’re received over 5 million 152mm shells from NK. The Russians are driving operations, but they can’t mount offensive operations larger than a company or depleted battalion. Their weak link is replacement barrels for artillery and wheel bearings for their trains.
TTG,
Your statement of “Russia keeping pressure everywhere” is irrelevant, because Ukraine is shuffling brigade everywhere. 24th Bde, for example, is shuttling to and fro, among several other brigades.
Since 3rd Bde is division sized now, 1st of 3rd Bde-Div can stay where they are, and 2nd and 3rd of 3rd Bde-Div now are available to shore up other sectors. Unless you are saying that 3rd Bde leadership is insubordinate and pose coup risks.
Reinforcing success is how you win wars.
TTG – I reckon typepad has put a comment in spam again. Probably because I linked to a pro-Russian aggregator site, Simplicius. This link from Politico might be less contentious:-
“NATO’s false promises are encouraging misplaced Ukrainian hopes
The alliance’s irresponsible policy toward Ukraine continues, providing false hope, making peace less likely and the war more dangerous. ”
https://www.politico.eu/article/war-ukraine-nato-membership-nuclear-war-fight-russia-defense-75-anniversary/#:~:text=Europe-,NATO's%20false%20promises%20are%20encouraging%20misplaced%20Ukrainian%20hopes,and%20the%20war%20more%20dangerous.&text=Christopher%20McCallion%20is%20a%20fellow,policy%20director%20at%20Defense%20Priorities.
It says much the same but doesn’t go into casualty figures.
EO,
As Colonel Lang often reminded the impatient, this is a hobby. Depending on what I’m doing, I may not get around to posting comments (or finding them in the spam folder) for quite some time.
TTG – sorry! – not at all impatient but thought it had got into spam because of the link.
The Russian Central Bank just raised their interest rate to 18% and I don’t think we seen a top yet. That is a serious drag on an economy that is not all that productive to start with. As Joe Biden found out, Time does not stop. RU has to pay extraordinary bonuses to get recruits and that will also be corrosive. No doubt Ukraine has problems too, but they seem to be largely manageable and the EU has now started to transfer frozen Russian funds to them, in addition to better weapons. To add to their problems, Sweden, Norway and Finland are building up military assets in northern Finland and RU will need to boost their presence too, which will add pressure in Ukraine and they will not be able to use poorly trained recruits in that area, since they will face troops that are specialists on fighting in that difficult terrain.
Lars,
What’s their GDP? What % of non military spend is left for everything else in their economy? Any clue or just some more silo-talking points for the blogerati? Norway and Finland are building up military assets on their Russian border? From what force level to what level? Says whom, besides you? Why would Russia respond to two nations with a combined total population smaller than the city of Moscow?
Where’s Ukraine getting their money for government spending? What is the interest rate on those war bonds? Will they get paid off when peace comes or just go bust like the Weimar Republic’s or Imperial China’s?
Fred,
Today Fitch downgraded Ukraine’s debt to default level.
F&L,
That can not be true. According to Modern Monetary Theory (Janet Yellen & Co.) debt doesn’t matter.
Be Black Rock has already gotten the real assets already. Kind of like the EU did to Greece and Cyprus.
Are you suggesting that those Scandinavian countries might invade Russia? Short of all-out war between [all of] NATO and Russia, that would be just plain silly (and suicidal); and of course, all-out war between NATO and Russia would most likely be the end of modern civilization. (Note that *all* of Finland is within a few minutes of the Russian border at hypersonic speeds…)
Of course, if Russia intends to invade Scandinavia, it would have to increase its forces in the region (massively), but IMO Russia would have the sense to avoid such a stupid move also – at least as long as it’s bogged down in Ukraine.
So, I don’t think Russia will feel any real pressure to “boost their presence” significantly there any time soon.
I am not suggesting anything like that. The build up will cause an increase Russian assets in the area. They cannot just ignore it. The Scandinavians are building up defensive forces, but should we end up in an Article 5 situation, that would rapidly change. Russia is acutely seen as a threat and it is being met and it is a plus for NATO to spread the RU along their western border, not to mention easing pressure on Ukraine.
My point was that I don’t see why Russia would have to respond by shifting forces up there. What tactical or strategic purpose would that serve?
Lars –
Russia doesn’t need to boost their presence near the border in northern Finland. Putin and the Kremlin know perfectly well that NATO is a defensive alliance and is not going to attack them. As a matter of fact they’ve been transferring troops from Karelia near Finland and sending them to Ukraine.
Karelia, which at one time was part of Finland, is in the southern area. The big military object is the port of Murmansk, which is very important for Russia and having NATO troops nearby is a concern and I am sure the Russian military agrees. Regarding Karelia, one of my ancestors came from there and as a POW in the early 1700’s decided to stay and married into the family.
Lars –
I note that one of those Ukrainian long-range one-way attack drones just struck a TU-22 at an airfield at Olenegorsk just 70 clicks from Murmansk. That 1800 km from the Ukraine border.
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2024/07/ukrainian-drone-hit-bomber-olenya-airfield
According to Swedish military commentators, this is a big deal. Either the drone was launched from inside Russia and thus a serious blunder by their security services, or it came from Ukraine and thus is a serious threat to vast areas of Russia and exposes their lack of adequate defense. I still maintain that Russia cannot just ignore any military build up in the northern parts and they will need special forces to do it. On a winter vacation a long time ago, I watched Swedish special troops coming down a ski slope and firing automatic weapons at various targets at rather rapid speeds. It was quite impressive. I have also seen them in their white gear and in the snow, you can’t see them until it is too late.
Today’s news ..
Russia, adapting tactics, advances in Donetsk and takes more Ukrainian land:
The new offensive focus comes as Ukraine faces depleted forces, sweltering heat and turmoil in a potentially consequential U.S. election.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/07/27/russia-adapting-tactics-advances-donetsk-takes-more-ukrainian-land/