Patrick Armstrong’s September 2021 sitrep captures a Russia that is stable, unbothered by Western narratives, and quietly going about its business while the West churns through one self-inflicted crisis after another.
The Duma election first. Official results: the pedestal party keeps its strong majority but loses a bit. The communists gain a bit. A new party called New People makes it into the Duma, a fresh bubble in the stagnant swamp of Russian politics. The communists ran on two main themes: ordinary people are doing poorly, and Moscow isn’t tough enough on the world stage. Putin’s response was immediate: he told the government that Russia’s greatest enemy is poverty, and he held meetings on socioeconomic development. The harder foreign policy is happening anyway, with or without communist pressure.
It’s interesting that young Americans view communism and socialism more favorably these days. Maybe Marx isn’t as dead as we used to think.
Fraud accusations are flying, of course. Gordon Hahn enumerates the ways the ruling party finagles its victory. Not exactly cheating, Armstrong suggests, but more the use of power and position to persuade people where their true interests lie. The big issue is e-voting, used for the first time in Moscow. Before the e-vote was introduced, opposition candidates won. After, very few. But nearly two million e-votes were cast, compared to 1.7 million paper votes. There are important differences between the two types of voters: older, more traditional voters prefer paper; younger, more establishment-oriented voters prefer digital. A recount is promised. The communists, who lost most, are protesting. The BBC’s coverage was typical Western boilerplate, written before the results were in.
The Western take remains clueless. Bernhard shows that the New York Times can see some failure but still doesn’t understand why Western-sponsored fake liberals won’t sell in Russia. They don’t get it. They never get it.
Democracy a la Russe. Natylie Baldwin offers an intelligent piece on Russian attitudes: social justice is a big requirement. Americans make a big thing about freedom and let the chips fall where they may. For Russians, security is more important. A lot of what you hear about Russian lack of democracy is really just saying they’re not as we like to think we are.
Navalny. A probe into his organization’s activities is opened. Closer to a treason charge? The West will scream, but Russia doesn’t care.
Meeting. Gerasimov and Milley met in Helsinki. Milley asked for permission to use Russian bases in Central Asia. Can’t see Moscow agreeing. Washington cannot be trusted. Maybe occasional use on a case-by-case basis, but nothing permanent.
Is this a good idea? Officials in Sakha are looking at a proposal to populate the region with resurrected mammoths. Sounds nifty, but after the oohs and ahs comes the screaming. Classic.
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Iran is now a full member. Without getting too Mackinderish about it, this is an important piece of the pivot area. The map is shifting.
Submarines et al. The AUKUS deal reveals Washington kicking Europe to the curb. Can’t afford submarines, can’t build them, can’t crew them. And anyway, they’re years and years away. But the real story is what it says about Washington’s relationship with its allies: you’re useful until you’re not. Another gift to Europe is the current energy crisis. Despite the Guardian’s effort to blame it on Russia, the delays and obstructions of Nord Stream are a major cause. Europeans aren’t willing to be dragged into a new cold war with China either. They talk, but talk is easy. Cutting loose from Washington’s diktat and forging genuinely independent foreign policy is very difficult. But they keep getting brutal reminders that Washington doesn’t really care.
Meeting. Putin and Erdogan meeting today. Much to discuss. Syria, Libya, energy, the usual.
From Laputa’s kitchens to you. China Is a Declining Power and the US has to get ready for war. Russia’s a declining power too. The philosophers of Laputa don’t seem to have noticed that neither has declined much since 2000. Litvinenko! Skripalmania! Projection and deflection. The West projects its own fears onto Russia and calls it analysis.
Western Values. Plans to kill Assange. The key witness lied. Never mind, keep him in jail. Meng is released with charges forgotten. CSIS welcomes the Michaels back. Hard to keep up with whose liberty matters and whose doesn’t.
America-hysterica. And now, after all the damage was done, we discover what many of us knew: the Russiagate narrative was entirely fake. This guy is surprised. But will any others wake up? Don’t count on it. The narrative is too useful. The truth is irrelevant.
Russia watches all this with a kind of weary amusement. The West keeps screaming, keeps accusing, keeps threatening. And Russia keeps building, keeps training, keeps preparing for a future that looks increasingly like the one its leaders have been predicting all along.
