Dedication

We maintain and continue this committee of correspondence in memory of our founder and mentor, Colonel W. Patrick Lang. The image to the right is Marcus, a character from William S. Burroughs’s “The Coming of the Purple Better One.” Colonel Lang would refer to Marcus sometimes in clever jest, sometimes in biting social commentary and sometimes simply because he liked Marcus. May everyone who corresponds here do so in a similar spirit.

Posted in Administration | 12 Comments

AVAILABLE now FROM iUniverse, Amazon and Barnes and Noble in hard cover, soft cover, and digital.

The Portable Pat Lang

Essential Writings on History, War, Religion and Strategy

From the Introduction:

“In the aftermath of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, Col. Lang created his own blog which to this day still serves as a committee of correspondence for a large network of former military and intelligence officers, diplomats, and scholars of international affairs.

Since its launch in 2005, the Turcopolier website has had over 40 million unique visits.

Since leaving the government, he has also authored five books, including a Civil War espionage trilogy, a memoir of his years in government service, and a primer on human intelligence.

This present volume—his sixth book—is an anthology of some of his most important writings. The content speaks for itself.  So have at it.”

Posted in My books | 4 Comments

“Putin’s arms shipments no longer dare enter the Black Sea. Russia is losing the logistic war”

Footage shows smoke rising from what Ukrainian military intelligence said is the Russian Black Sea Fleet patrol ship Sergey Kotov that was damaged by Ukrainian sea drones, at sea, at a location given as off the coast of Crimea, in this still image obtained from a video released on March 5, 2024. Ministry of Defence of Ukraine

Navies spend more time (ideally) preventing conflict in the first place, but if that fails, the big effort is protecting their own side’s logistics and/or denying the enemy theirs. History is littered with examples of combatants who overreached their supply chains or failed to ensure theirs were adequately protected. Field Marshal Rommel is the ‘go-to’ for the former and it’s hard to look past the Battle of the Atlantic for an example of a war-defining logistic struggle. 

And so it is today in the contested maritime domains of the Black, Red and China Seas. In each case, a battle for sustainability is playing out as forces there seek to disrupt or preserve freedom of navigation.

In the Black Sea, Russian attempts to disrupt Ukraine’s food exports and hold the world to ransom have failed. Grain and other exports through the humanitarian corridor in the west are on the rise as the Black Sea Fleet is driven further and further east by the Ukrainian threat. The Ukrainians’ innovative use of uncrewed surface vessels (USV) dominates the headlines but this is to overlook how many different types of attacks Ukraine has conducted. Only yesterday a Russia vessel which went aground in the Dnipro Estuary last year, and since used as a listening post, was struck by a cruise missile (exact type unknown). For now, Putin has no answer to much of this and has sacked not only the head of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet but now, it appears, the Russian Navy commander-in-chief too.

Some even more significant things have been happening outside the media spotlight. Throughout the war in Ukraine, the transport ship Sparta-IV and the tanker Yaz have been central to Russian logistics shipments into the Black Sea. Sparta-IV is one of a series of Russian-owned ships that have previously brought artillery and S-300 air defence missiles from the Russian base at Tartus in Syria to Novorossiysk on the Black Sea.

These vessels are sanctioned by the UK, Ukraine and the US for “delivering maritime goods on behalf of the Russian Ministry of Defence” but until recently this has had no effect. Turkey, which could deny passage of the Bosporus Strait under the terms of the Montreux Convention, has chosen not to. RUSI research shows that Sparta-IV made six runs to and from the Black Sea in 2023, including prolonged periods with her Automatic Identification System (AIS) system switched off – behaviour often associated with smuggling and illicit activities. 

But then last month both the Sparta-IV and the Yaz unexpectedly turned around as they were approaching the southern entrance to the Bosporus. They returned to Tartus and are now heading to Russia via the Baltic. This is a huge delay, and then one must consider the onward overland journey necessary to get their cargoes to the theatre of war. Materiel landed at Novorossiysk had just a hundred miles to go to the Kerch bridges and the battlefields. What was a fairly simple piece of shipping becomes a continental odyssey.

Initially it was assessed that Turkey had finally denied permission to pass through but on closer analysis, it appears that in fact the USV threat in the Black Sea is now so high, the Russians don’t believe it worth the risk, even with a military escort.

As ever, the problem is wider than just these two ships. There are believed to be at least 69 ships on the US sanction list and by the time you get to ships suspected of smuggling grain and oil out of the Black Sea, the list is longer still. But Sparta-IV is one of just a handful of ships smuggling weapons: forcing her not to enter the Black Sea is as significant as the sinking of the Russian flagship Moskva way back in April 2022, maybe more so. Whilst the Moskva strike was an embarrassing operational and tactical failure – and totemic – the effect now is strategic. Moskva showed Russia’s shortcomings in fighting in the maritime domain. The inability to protect its logistics now could, over time, affect Russian ability to fight in all domains. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/12/ukraine-russia-war-logistics-black-sea-sparta-iv-yaz-usvs/

Comment: This is the result of a well planned, sustained Ukrainian campaign to deny Russia freedom of access in the Black Sea with the ultimate goal of liberating Crimea. The first part of this plan appears to be working. The Black Sea Fleet have largely vacated Sevastopol and are no longer operating in the western half of the Black Sea. The grain corridor established by Ukraine seems to be working well. While the Black Sea is certainly not denied to Russia as a sea LoC, access is being limited.  

I think the author is a little too over-exuberant with his claim that Russia is losing the logistic war. They have made great strides in converting to a war economy and have arranged logistical allies (Iran and NK) with interior lines. And they’re still managing to obtain Western technology needed to keep their war machine going.

John Minehan voiced a similar opinion earlier today about Russian logistics.

But the LoCs into Theater remain vulnerable and that vulnerability has increased as the Ukrainians have had success against the Black Sea Fleet. Those successes also indicate that Russia lacks support in the occupied territories.

All the Ukrainians need to do is get HIMARS systems close enough to the LoCs into Theater to control them by fire, then the Russians collapse.

The Russians excel at the Recon/Fires Complex, but still have not been able to successful develop a Recon/Strike Complex on the Operational level. In 2003, the US dropped the Iraqi grid in 3days, the Russians have not been able to do this in 2 years.

What else has Ukraine been doing in their war against Russian logistics? Since day one they have been hitting Russian supply and fuel vehicles. Given the Russian reliance on railway supply, this is a smart strategy. Another smart strategy, which they have not fully implemented, is to target the electrical grid powering Russia’s rail system. Unlike the Ukrainian railways, which can operate fairly effectively with available diesel locomotives, the Russian rail system in their western theater, is reliant on their electric locomotives. 

Ukraine is currently targeting Russian refineries. That’s also a good strategic move, although it seems to be more aimed at the overall Russian economy rather than depriving the Russian military of necessary POL. We’ll see if they can stick to that plan.  

TTG

Posted in The Military Art, TTG, Ukraine Crisis | 41 Comments

Gaza aid reaches shore in first sea delivery

The Spanish ship Open Arms left Cyprus on Tuesday with 200 tonnes of food desperately needed for Gaza, which the UN says is on the brink of famine.

Videos posted online show a crane moving crates from the barge to lorries waiting on a purpose-built jetty. It marks the start of a trial to see if sea deliveries are effective, after air and land deliveries proved difficult. World Central Kitchen (WCK), which supplied the food, carried out the mission in co-operation with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), to deliver the barge’s cargo of rice, flour, legumes, canned vegetables and canned proteins.

Gaza has no functioning port, so a jetty stemming from the shoreline was built by WCK’s team. How the food will be distributed in Gaza remains unclear. WCK’s founder, celebrity chef José Andrés, wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that all the food aid from the barge had been loaded into 12 lorries. “We did it!” he wrote, adding that this was a test to see if they could bring even more aid in the next shipment – up to “thousands of tons a week”.

In a statement, Israel said the Open Arms vessel and its cargo were inspected in Cyprus, and that Israel Defense Forces (IDF) troops had been deployed to secure the shoreline.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68581090

Comment: I was curious about the jetty that Chef José Andrés was building to receive this barge. It was built from rubble. Quite a pragmatic solution. Work with what you got and get it done now. As this first barge was being unloaded, a second barge is being loaded in Larnaca. “Among the hundreds of tons of aid are pallets of dates, which hold spiritual significance during Ramadan.” WCK is also shipping a crane that will allow them to get the aid on shore and onto trucks quicker. It’s not the hundreds of trucks a day needed to feed Gaza, but it can be quickly replicated elsewhere in Gaza. Hell of a feat in my opinion.

I see the IDF is securing the beach as well as inspecting the cargo at Larnaca. I’m pretty sure it will be the same on the beach for the US built floating pier. Not sure if or how inspections will be handled.

TTG

Posted in Israel, Middle East, TTG | 8 Comments

Starship reaches orbit

Starship has successfully launched and reached orbit a short time ago. I knew the launch was coming up, but this one caught me by surprise. I guess I was too busy watching the birds and squirrels in my little patch of forest behind the house to pay it much attention. At least I was looking up in awe at the magnificence of the still naked trees.

This is a tremendous success with the third attempt. Now we’ll see how it handles reentry… or if it does at all.

TTG

Posted in Space, TTG | 12 Comments

Aleksandar on the French General Staff Assessment

Someone leaked French Joint Staff assessment to a French newspaper.
Nothing new for most of us, ukraine can’t win and in fact is weaker and weaker.

“The situation looks exceedingly bleak for Ukraine, which might in part explain Macron’s recent declarations around sending troops to Ukraine. 

“A Ukrainian military victory now seems impossible”
The reports Marianne consulted write that Ukraine’s counter-offensive “gradually bogged down in mud and blood and did not result in any strategic gain” and that its planning, conceived by Kiev and Western general staffs, turned out to be “disastrous”: “Planners thought that once the first Russian defense lines were breached, the entire front would collapse […] These fundamental preliminary phases were conducted without considering the moral forces of the enemy in defense: that is, the will of the Russian soldier to hold onto the terrain”.

The reports also highlight “the inadequacy of the training of Ukrainian soldiers and officers”: due to a lack of officers and a significant number of veterans, these “Year II soldiers” from Ukraine – often trained for “no more than three weeks” – were launched into an assault on a Russian fortification line that proved impregnable.

Without any air support, with disparate Western equipment that was less efficient than the old Soviet material (“obsolete, easy to maintain, and capable of being used in degraded mode”, the report mentions), the Ukrainian troops had no hope of breaking through. Add to this the “Russian super-dominance in the field of electronic jamming penalizing, on the Ukrainian side, the use of drones and command systems”.

“The Russian army is today the ‘tactical and technical’ reference for thinking and implementing the defensive mode,” writes the report. Not only does Moscow have heavy engineering equipment that allowed it to construct defensive works (“almost total absence of this material on the Ukrainian side, and the impossibility for Westerners to supply it quickly”) but the 1,200 km front, known as the Sourokovine line (after a Russian general), has been mined to a huge extent.

The reports also highlight that contrary to Ukraine “the Russians have managed their reserve troops well, to ensure operational endurance.” According to this document, Moscow reinforces its units before they are completely worn out, mixes recruits with experienced troops, ensures regular rest periods in the rear… and “always had a coherent reserve force to manage unforeseen events.” This is far from the widespread idea in the West of a Russian army sending its troops to the slaughter without counting…

“To date, the Ukrainian general staff does not have a critical mass of land forces capable of inter-arms maneuver at the corps level capable of challenging their Russian counterparts to break through its defensive line,” concludes this confidential defense report, according to which “the gravest error of analysis and judgment would be to continue to seek exclusively military solutions to stop the hostilities”. A French officer summarizes: “It is clear, given the forces present, that Ukraine cannot win this war militarily.”

“The conflict entered a critical phase in December”
“The combativeness of Ukrainian soldiers is deeply affected,” mentions a forward-looking report for the year 2024. “Zelensky would need 35,000 men per month, he’s not recruiting half of that, while Putin draws from a pool of 30,000 volunteers per month,” observes a military officer returned from Kiev. In terms of equipment, the balance is just as unbalanced: the failed offensive of 2023 “tactically destroyed” half of Kiev’s 12 combat brigades.

Since then, Western aid has never been so low. It is therefore clear that no Ukrainian offensive can be launched this year. “The West can supply 3D printers to manufacture drones or loitering munitions, but can never print men,” notes this report. “Given the situation, it may have been decided to strengthen the Ukrainian army, not with fighters, but with support forces, in the rear, allowing Ukrainian soldiers to be freed up for the front,” admits a senior officer, confirming a “ramp-up” of Western military personnel in civilian clothes. “Besides the Americans, who allowed the New York Times to visit a CIA camp, there are quite a few Britons,” slips a military officer, who does not deny the presence of French special forces, notably combat swimmers for training missions…

“The risk of a Russian breakthrough is real”
On February 17, Kiev had to abandon the city of Avdiivka, in the northern suburbs of Donetsk, which had until then been a fortified stronghold. “It was both the heart and symbol of Ukrainian resistance in the Russian-speaking Donbass,” highlights a report on the “battle of Avdiivka,” drawing a series of damning lessons. “The Russians changed their modus operandi by compartmentalizing the city, and especially by using gliding bombs on a large scale for the first time,” notes this document. When a 155mm artillery shell carries 7 kg of explosive, the gliding bomb delivers between 200 and 700 kg and can thus pierce concrete structures more than 2 m thick. A hell for Ukrainian defenses, which lost more than 1,000 men per day. Furthermore, the Russians use sound suppressors on light infantry weapons to foil acoustic detection systems on the ground.

“The decision to retreat by the Ukrainian armed forces was a surprise,” notes this last report, highlighting “its suddenness and lack of preparation,” fearing that this choice was “more endured than decided by the Ukrainian command,” suggesting a possible onset of “disarray.”

“The Ukrainian armed forces have tactically shown that they do not possess the human and material capabilities […] to hold a sector of the front that is subjected to the assailant’s effort,” continues the document. “The Ukrainian failure in Avdiivka shows that, despite the emergency deployment of an ‘elite’ brigade – the 3rd Azov Air Assault Brigade –, Kiev is not capable of locally restoring a sector of the front that collapses,” alerts this last report.

What the Russians will do with this tactical success remains to be seen. Will they continue in the current mode of “nibbling and slowly shaking” the entire front line, or will they seek to “break through in depth”? “The terrain behind Avdiivka allows it,” signals this recent document, also warning that Western sources tend to “underestimate” the Russians, themselves adept at the practice of “Maskirovka,” “appearing weak when strong.” According to this analysis, after two years of war, Russian forces have thus shown their ability to “develop operational endurance” that allows them to wage “a slow and long-intensity war based on the continuous attrition of the Ukrainian army.”

Comment: Aleksandar provided this French General Staff assessment and his comments on that assessment as a comment to a recent post. I found it quite informative and decided to share it as a stand alone post. Good job, Aleksandar.

A few things struck me. The report wrote “The Russian army is today the ‘tactical and technical’ reference for thinking and implementing the defensive mode.” I think that is an understatement. The Russian Army has long been characterized as being experts in the defense. The construction of the Surovikin Line and the use of artillery and drones in the defensive battles proved out that notion. Fairly early in the Ukrainian counteroffensive, it became apparent there was not going to be a breakthrough. It was a forlorn hope to expect otherwise. The opposite side of this coin is that the hope of a grand Russian breakthrough is equally forlorn. The Russian have proven far better at conducting a defense than they are of conducting an offense beyond the first few weeks of this invasion. The Ukrainians, in spite of years of Western training, are cut from the same cloth.

I also don’t know why “the decision to retreat by the Ukrainian armed forces was a surprise.” After staying too long at Severodonetsk and Bakhmut, it was a relief to see the Ukrainians conduct a withdrawal, a withdrawal under considerable pressure I might add. If they had not employed the 3rd Air Assault Brigade to anchor the withdrawal, the Russians would have captured quite a few Ukrainians along with their equipment. That employment is proof of deliberate planning by the Ukrainians, probably initiated well before Syrskyi took charge.

TTG

Posted in The Military Art, TTG, Ukraine Crisis | 71 Comments

NASA’s Voyager 1 spacecraft is talking nonsense. Its friends on Earth are worried.

“Frankly, I’m very worried,” he says. Ever since mid-November, the Voyager 1 spacecraft has been sending messages back to Earth that don’t make any sense. It’s as if the aging spacecraft has suffered some kind of stroke that’s interfering with its ability to speak. “It basically stopped talking to us in a coherent manner,” says Suzanne Dodd of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, who has been the project manager for the Voyager interstellar mission since 2010. “It’s a serious problem.”

Instead of sending messages home in binary code, Voyager 1 is now just sending back alternating 1s and 0s. Dodd’s team has tried the usual tricks to reset things — with no luck. It looks like there’s a problem with the onboard computer that takes data and packages it up to send back home. All of this computer technology is primitive compared to, say, the key fob that unlocks your car, says Dodd. “The button you press to open the door of your car, that has more compute power than the Voyager spacecrafts do,” she says. “It’s remarkable that they keep flying, and that they’ve flown for 46-plus years.”

Voyager 1 and its twin, Voyager 2, have outlasted many of those who designed and built them. So to try to fix Voyager 1’s current woes, the dozen or so people on Dodd’s team have had to pore over yellowed documents and old mimeographs. “They’re doing a lot of work to try and get into the heads of the original developers and figure out why they designed something the way they did and what we could possibly try that might give us some answers to what’s going wrong with the spacecraft,” says Dodd. She says that they do have a list of possible fixes. As time goes on, they’ll likely start sending commands to Voyager 1 that are more bold and risky. “The things that we will do going forward are probably more challenging in the sense that you can’t tell exactly if it’s going to execute correctly — or if you’re going to maybe do something you didn’t want to do, inadvertently,” says Dodd.

Linda Spilker, who serves as the Voyager mission’s project scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, says that when she comes to work she sees “all of these circuit diagrams up on the wall with sticky notes attached. And these people are just having a great time trying to troubleshoot, you know, the 60’s and 70’s technology.” “I’m cautiously optimistic,” she says. “There’s a lot of creativity there.”

Still, this is a painstaking process that could take weeks, or even months. Voyager 1 is so distant, it takes almost a whole day for a signal to travel out there, and then a whole day for its response to return. “We’ll keep trying,” says Dodd, “and it won’t be quick.”

https://www.npr.org/2024/03/06/1236033493/nasas-voyager-1-spacecraft-is-talking-nonsense-its-friends-on-earth-are-worried

Comment: This is one hell of an adventure for NASA coders and engineers. I envy them. Years before the launch of Voyager 1, I was introduced to computers in an after school course in the computer center of Fairfield University. I ended up writing a Star Trek navigation game in Fortran by graphing polynomial functions. I wouldn’t know where to begin to do that now. Many years later I learned how to hack MS DOS to write stupid computer tricks and write simple viruses. That was all to support a cover. I couldn’t do that today, either. Those rudimentary old skills are nothing to sneeze at. Those NASA coders are living the dream… a techno-nerd dream, but a dream nevertheless.

TTG

Posted in Space, Technology, TTG | 16 Comments

Lithuanian Intelligence 2024 National Threat Assessment

Lithuanian intelligence assessed that Russia has the capability to continue sustaining the current tempo of its war in Ukraine and will likely have the capability to gradually expand its military capabilities in the near term. Lithuanian intelligence published its 2024 national threat assessment on March 7 wherein it assessed that Russia has the manpower, material, and financial resources to sustain its war effort in Ukraine in the near term. Lithuanian intelligence noted that Russia reconstituted and increased its deployed manpower in Ukraine in 2023 despite suffering heavy losses but continues to prioritize quantity of manpower and materiel over quality of forces. Lithuanian intelligence also assessed that Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) has become a driving force within the Russian economy at the expense of other economic sectors and that Russia had allocated at least 10.8 trillion rubles (about $119 billion) to military spending in 2023. The Lithuanian intelligence assessment stated that Russia’s economy is doing better than expected due to high oil prices and Russia’s ability to offset Western sanctions. Lithuanian intelligence caveated that short-term factors are driving Russia’s economic growth and that Russian structural problems, which impose limits on Russia’s short-term capacity, are only likely to deepen in the long term. Lithuanian intelligence also assessed that the Kremlin views Russia’s upcoming March 2024 presidential election as a significant event to legitimize Russian President Vladimir Putin and that Putin will be more likely to make unpopular decisions (potentially such as mobilization) after the election, which could allow the Kremlin to address some potential constraints on its long-term war effort.

Lithuanian intelligence also assessed that Russia is unlikely to abandon its long-term objectives of subjugating Ukraine even if Russia fails to achieve these objectives through military means. Lithuanian intelligence assessed that “Russia shows no intention of de-escalating” its war against Ukraine and that Russia is unlikely to abandon its operational objectives in the long-term, even if Russia suffers a military defeat in Ukraine. Lithuanian intelligence stated that Russia will continue to pursue its goal of completely undermining Ukrainian statehood and sovereignty, enforcing Ukraine’s neutral status, and destroying Ukraine’s military potential in the long term, regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine. Lithuanian intelligence assessed that Russia will also continue efforts to expand the Russian state’s administrative control to the administrative borders of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts in the short term. Recent Russian official statements underscore that the Kremlin’s maximalist objectives in Ukraine have remained unchanged since the beginning months of the full-scale invasion and likely will not change, despite Russian information operations that aim to persuade Western audiences and leaders that Russia has limited objectives in Ukraine to seduce the West to support negotiations that favor Russia.

Lithuanian intelligence assessed that Russia is preparing for confrontation with NATO in the long term while also waging its war in Ukraine. Lithuanian intelligence assessed that Russia has allocated substantial resources to the war in Ukraine but maintains the means to prepare for a long-term confrontation with NATO in the Baltic Sea region. Lithuanian intelligence stated that Russia has deployed forces and assets from its western border areas to Ukraine and has thus had to increasingly rely on air and naval capabilities for security and deterrence purposes on NATO’s eastern flank. Lithuanian intelligence reported that Russia deployed Kalibr missile carrier ships on combat duty in Lake Ladoga near St. Petersburg for the first time in 2023, likely in response to Finland’s accession to NATO, and increased the number of Tu-22M3 heavy bomber flights over the Baltic Sea from none in 2022 to five in 2023. The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (VLA) also recently assessed that the Russian military is forming the Leningrad Military District (LMD) and Moscow Military District (MMD) in part to posture against Finland and NATO.

Russian military thinkers are openly discussing how Russia can go to war against NATO in the near future. Russian General Staff Military Academy Head Colonel Vladimir Zarudnitsky claimed in a recent article in the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) journal Military Thought that the war in Ukraine could escalate into a large-scale war in Europe and that the end of hostilities in Ukraine will not lead to the end of confrontation between the West and Russia.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-7-2024

Comment: Falling back on the ISW. I know a lot of you hate that, but this is different. ISW is just parroting what Lithuanian Intelligence put in their defense assessment. So save your ire for my Baltic brothers. I’ve found the full intelligence assessment on the Lithuanian State Security Department (VSD) site… all in English. The VSD is the civilian intelligence agency. The Second Investigation Department under the Ministry of National Defense (AOTD) is the military counterpart. This assessment is a joint VSD and AOTD product.

https://www.vsd.lt/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/GR-2024-02-15-EN-1.pdf

This strikes me as a sober assessment. What strikes me right away is that, like me, Lithuanian Intelligence knows that the Kremlin leopards have not changed their spots and will not do so in the foreseeable future. This was the same assessment made by Poland and Solidarność in particular back in 1992. In conversations among the newly evolving labor unions in the former Soviet territories, there was great trepidation about the Kremlin eventually trying to reassert control over the former Soviet states. Belarus, they surmised, would be the first to fall. I guess they knew what they were talking about.

That tracked with what I learned from insiders as the Soviet Union collapsed. Within months of the collapse, the apparatchiki were back in control of the deep state, bidding their time until they could seize the reins of power. And their goals never really changed.

TTG

Posted in Baltics, Intelligence, Russia, TTG, Ukraine Crisis | 35 Comments

Gaza aid ship expected to set sail from Cyprus

The ship belongs to Spanish charity Open Arms, and will be carrying food provided by US charity World Central Kitchen

A ship carrying desperately needed humanitarian aid is expected to set sail this weekend, bound for Gaza. The Spanish vessel, Open Arms, is scheduled to depart from Cyprus – the closest EU country to Gaza – and hopes to use a newly opened shipping route. With no functioning port and shallow waters, it is still unclear where the ship will dock when it reaches Gaza.

The ship, expected to reach Gaza in the next few days, belongs to the Spanish charity of the same name, Open Arms. It will tow a barge loaded with 200 tonnes of food provided by US charity World Central Kitchen, Open Arms founder Oscar Camps told the Associated Press. The ship is expected to depart Cyprus’ Larnaca port this weekend, and will take around two to three days to reach an undisclosed location off the coast of Gaza, Mr Camps told the news agency. He added that the final mile of the journey – which is about 216 nautical miles in total – would be “the most complicated operation”, but added that he was not “concerned at all about security”.

At the destination point, a team from the World Central Kitchen has been building a pier to receive the aid, he said. The group has 60 kitchens throughout Gaza, where it will be able to distribute the food. “What initially appeared as an insurmountable challenge is now on the verge of realization,” read a post on Open Arms’ X account. “Our tugboat stands prepared to embark at a moment’s notice, laden with tons of food, water, and vital supplies for Palestinian civilians.”

World Central Kitchen said it had been preparing for the aid trip for weeks, waiting for the shipping route to open. The maritime corridor was announced by European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen on Friday, while she was in Cyprus. That came a day after President Joe Biden announced that the US plans to build a temporary floating port to Gaza’s shoreline. The Pentagon later said it would take up to 60 days to complete and need about 1,000 troops to build – none of whom would go ashore. The port will be able to receive large ships carrying food, water, medicine and temporary shelters, US officials said. Initial shipments will arrive via Cyprus, where Israeli security inspections will take place. A Pentagon spokesman said the pier could help to deliver up to 2 million meals every day.

It is unclear whether, or how, the US’ temporary pier and the EU’s sea corridor will work together, as neither Mr Biden nor Ms Von der Leyen mentioned the other’s plans.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68518918

Comment: The man is operating 60 kitchens in Gaza and is building a pier to receive food and supplies. This is in addition to all the work he’s doing in hotspots throughout the world. I wonder what the gross tonnage is for Chef José Andrés’ balls?

TTG

P.S. Another article with more details, although I’d really like to see the pier Chef Andrés is cooking up.

https://baynews9.com/fl/tampa/news/2024/03/09/a-ship-with-aid-prepares-for-trip-from-cyprus-to-gaza

Posted in Gastronomie, Israel, Middle East, TTG | 90 Comments

Toyota’s development of solid state EV batteries

Toyota says it is close to being able to manufacture next-generation solid-state batteries at the same rate as existing batteries for electric vehicles, marking a milestone in the global race to commercialise the technology. Its headway in manufacturing technology follows a “breakthrough” in battery materials recently claimed by the world’s largest carmaker by vehicles sold. It would allow Toyota to mass-produce solid-state batteries by 2027 or 2028. 

Solid-state batteries have long been heralded by industry experts as a potential “game-changer” that could address EV battery concerns such as charging time, capacity and the risk of catching fire. If successful, Toyota expects its electric cars powered by solid-state batteries to have a range of 1,200km — more than twice the range of its current EVs — and a charging time of 10 minutes or less. 

But producing solid-state batteries in large volumes is costly and difficult, with Goldman Sachs warning of “a relatively tough path towards scaling up over the coming decade”. Problems include the extreme sensitivity of the batteries to moisture and oxygen, as well as the mechanical pressure needed to hold them together to prevent the formation of dendrites, the metal filaments that can cause short circuits. According to Toyota, one of the most critical and difficult technologies for mass production is the assembly process, in which the layers of cathode-anode cells need to be stacked quickly and with high precision, without damaging the materials. 

When asked whether Toyota was now able to produce solid-state batteries at the same rate as current lithium-ion batteries, a Toyota engineer said: “In terms of the stacking speed, we are almost there. We are going to roll out bigger volumes and check the quality.” Toyota in September took journalists, analysts and investors on a tour of its Teiho plant in Aichi prefecture, where the company is preparing to produce solid-state batteries in large quantities. The plant tour followed a workshop in June, in which the company claimed to have found “a solution for materials” that would make the batteries last longer and deliver a stable performance. 

Toyota last week announced a partnership with energy group Idemitsu Kosan to jointly develop and produce a solid-state battery material called sulphide solid electrolyte, which the companies said was most promising in addressing the durability issue. Development timetables have been pushed back repeatedly in the past, leaving many analysts sceptical about whether Toyota will be able to hit its latest commercialisation target.

https://www.ft.com/content/6224f235-568c-4e2f-8247-e7dacf0ef20c

Comment: This Financial Times article is a decent summary of this development, but a much better and far more in depth treatment is at this link.

https://www.topspeed.com/toyotas-745-mile-solid-state-battery-breakthrough-explained/

I consider electric vehicles to still be at the Model T/Model A stage primarily because of the battery technology. They provide limited range for long distance drivers, pose a grave danger if damaged and are so damned heavy that they quickly wear out the massive tires they all seem to sport. Once these solid state batteries are perfected, it will be a great leap forward for EVs.

Kudos to Elon for pushing EV technology as far as he has. Years from now, he will definitely be a chapter in the history of the EV. However, he really should employ some old school automotive engineers. Teslas have some Yugo-level design flaws.

I’ve been a VW guy from the beginning. I learned to drive on a ’68 bus and drove it 70 miles a day to my high school for two years. My first car was a ’71 Super Beetle, Old Blue by name. I drove it through college, took it to Hawaii and back and didn’t trade it in until 1986 on a new Golf, my first car with air conditioning. In the meantime, we had an ’80 Rabbit. We had the Golf through my long tour in Germany, putting well over 300,000 miles on it before donating it. Both my sons learned to drive on it. Also had a ’99 Passat Wagen and an ’01 Jetta which I still have. Next year I can get antique vehicle plates on that one. My new car is a ’16 Golf Sportwagen. I may have that until I die.

In line with this heritage, I’ve followed the development of the new VW ID Buzz, the throw back to the old microbus. I just find the concept cool. And it’s not another SUV. I hate that trend in both ICE vehicles and EVs. Still, the technology is too new. I don’t need one and it will cost far more than what i’m willing to spend on a vehicle. Now putting an electric motor in an old beetle is something I might like as a hobby project.

TTG 

Posted in Energy, Technology, TTG | 44 Comments

Victoria “Fuck The EU” Nuland To Retire By Walrus.

Has anyone, just for fun, computed the totals of those who have died in the wars of choice this person and her extended family have instigated and supported? We should perhaps give awards; for example the Madeleine Albright prize for the highest annual child mortality in an avoidable conflict. It is not hard to be creative: The Stalin Award, The Eichmann medal. etc.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/05/state-department-victoria-nuland-retiring-russia-ukraine/95e40338-dafc-11ee-b5e9-ad4573c62315_story.html

Posted in Borg Wars, Ukraine Crisis, Walrus | 37 Comments

“Russia Threatens Moldova With ‘Military Scenario’ Over Transnistria”

Saluting the motherland: troops of the Operational Group of Russian Forces in Transnistria pictured on Victory Day in Tiraspol in 2017. Image: President.gospmr.org / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY 4.0

Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Mikhail Galuzin, has warned Moldova of “a military scenario” if it attempts to resolve the problem of the breakaway Transnistrian region by force. “We are extremely concerned about such a possibility and have always made it clear that attempts to resolve the Transnistrian issue by force are counterproductive. We expect Chisinau to understand what a military scenario could mean for Moldova,” Galuzin told the Russian daily Izvestia on Thursday. The minister said that any actions that pose a threat to the Russian military, or to fellow citizens [of Transnistria], would be “considered by Moscow, in accordance with international law, as an attack on Russia”.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Wednesday told the Russian Duma that Russia will defend its citizens in Moldova from any alleged danger from the government in Chisinau or its US and EU backers. “We will do everything we can to reverse this trend to resume the political process. After all, we have 200,000 citizens living there, and, of course, we are concerned about their fate and will not allow them to become victims of another Western adventure,” Lavrov said.

Russia allegedly has 220,000 Russian citizens in Moldova, most of them in the breakaway region. Russia used such rhetoric against Ukraine before the February 24, 2022 military invasion, allegedly against the “Nazi” leadership in Kyiv, which it said the West controls.

Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War, ISW, a US non-profit, has issued an analysis that says the Kremlin is preparing a hybrid operation in Moldova, similar to the one it used before its invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and in 2022, which could justify a possible escalation of the conflict in the region. The ISW said Kremlin officials are trying to create informational conditions to justify a possible Russian move to destabilise Moldova and prevent its integration into the EU.

The secessionist leader of Transnistria, Vadim Krasnoselky, supported the statements of Russian officials on Thursday and said that Moldova should not take advantage of the difficult situation around Transnistria to “spread rot” on the Transnistrian people. “We must try all possible negotiation platforms and not interrupt the dialogue …]The conflict in Transnistria is the path to world war,” Krasnoselsky said.

Former Moldovan Defence Minister Anatol Salar said on TV on Thursday that Russia will do everything possible through a hybrid war this year to ensure the country’s pro-European President Maia Sandu does not win a second term. “It is important for Russia to take control of Moldova and block Ukraine from the western flank, then to block Moldova’s collaboration with Romania and Moldova’s accession to the EU,” said Salaru.

https://balkaninsight.com/2024/02/16/russia-threatens-moldova-with-military-scenario-over-transnistria/

Comment: Two years ago, the Kremlin most likely saw Transnistria as the western border of a new, greater Russia. Those plans came to naught and I don’t see any future operation, hybrid or not, coming to fruition. The Kremlin is claiming that Moldova’s drift to the West and particularly the recent imposition of taxes and tariffs of goods going to and from Transnistria is a blatant attempt to economically strangle Transnistria. There may be something to that, but it is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that is driving Moldova deeper into the EU fold.

TTG

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/05/russia-cant-reach-moldova-transnistria-easily-but-can-cause-trouble.html

https://emerging-europe.com/news/in-transnistria-much-ado-about-nothing/

Posted in Europe, Russia, TTG, Ukraine Crisis | 41 Comments