We maintain and continue this committee of correspondence in memory of our founder and mentor, Colonel W. Patrick Lang. The image to the right is Marcus, a character from William S. Burroughs’s “The Coming of the Purple Better One.” Colonel Lang would refer to Marcus sometimes in clever jest, sometimes in biting social commentary and sometimes simply because he liked Marcus. May everyone who corresponds here do so in a similar spirit.
Essential Writings on History, War, Religion and Strategy
From the Introduction:
“In the aftermath of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, Col. Lang created his own blog which to this day still serves as a committee of correspondence for a large network of former military and intelligence officers, diplomats, and scholars of international affairs.
Since its launch in 2005, the Turcopolier website has had over 40 million unique visits.
Since leaving the government, he has also authored five books, including a Civil War espionage trilogy, a memoir of his years in government service, and a primer on human intelligence.
This present volume—his sixth book—is an anthology of some of his most important writings. The content speaks for itself. So have at it.”
Sir Keir Starmer thrashed out plans for a western peacekeeping force of more than 10,000 troops for Ukraine yesterday at a virtual meeting of the “coalition of the willing”. Two minehunter ships, which were transferred from the Royal Navy to Ukraine’s fleet last year, are also taking part in training exercises, ready to be deployed to the Black Sea in the event of a ceasefire. They have been unable to enter during the war because the Bosphorus Strait has been closed.
Senior government sources said the prime minister has won the backing of “considerably more” than the three countries that originally offered to supply ground troops, though the bulk of the force is likely to come from Britain and France. “Things are quite advanced,” a senior government source said, refusing to provide more specific details of who will contribute what since it could “help Russia”. But the source added: “It will be a significant force with a significant number of countries providing troops and a much larger group contributing in other ways.”
A military source said the size of the final force would be “comfortably north of 10,000”. About 35 countries have agreed to supply weapons, logistical and intelligence support to the mission, which is described as a “tripwire force”. In the event of a ceasefire between Russian and Ukraine, it would deter Vladimir Putin from launching a fresh invasion.
After a conference call of 29 leaders yesterday, Starmer announced that military leaders from around the world will meet in London this week as plans for the multinational peacekeeping force move to an “operational phase”.
On Thursday, John Healey, the defence secretary, will meet military chiefs at the Permanent Joint Headquarters — the British tri-service headquarters in Northwood, northwest London, where all overseas military operations are planned and controlled. A senior official described the speed at which the peacekeeping force was being put together as “unprecedented” and said it was evidence that Anglo-French relations are at their closest since the two countries’ joint military intervention in Libya in 2011, which was designed to stop Colonel Gaddafi’s forces wiping out civilians.
At a press conference in Downing Street, Starmer said the “world needs action now” and “new commitments” had been made on peacekeeping and tightening sanctions on Russia during the call, which included the French president Emmanuel Macron and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky. Rejecting Putin’s “yes, but” approach to a proposed ceasefire with Kyiv, the prime minister said the Russian president would have to negotiate “sooner or later”.
Starmer said: “Sooner or later Putin will have to come to the table. So this is the moment. Let the guns fall silent, let the barbaric attacks on Ukraine once and for all stop, and agree to a ceasefire now.” He added: “Now is the time to engage in discussion on a mechanism to manage and monitor a full ceasefire, and agree to serious negotiations towards not just a pause, but a lasting peace, backed by strong security arrangements through our coalition of the willing.”
Asked about what action a peacekeeping force could take, he said this would be a subject of discussion between military chiefs on Thursday. He said: “There are different capabilities from different countries, but those are the operational discussions that are going on in relation to what this coalition of the willing will be able to provide.” Among the other attendees at yesterday’s meeting were Giorgia Meloni, the Italian prime minister, who reportedly had been considering not joining the call due to scepticism about Anglo-French peacekeeping proposals. As well as European nations, the leaders of Australia, Canada and New Zealand joined the call, as did the Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte. The meeting followed an intense week of diplomacy in which American officials put a US-Ukraine proposal for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire to Russia.
But the Kremlin has so far resisted the proposal, saying it would only agree to a ceasefire if Ukraine also agreed to abandon its aim of joining Nato and gave up some of its territory to Russia. Speaking from the cabinet room in No 10 yesterday, Starmer told world leaders they could not “sit back and wait” for a ceasefire in Ukraine, adding: “We have to keep pushing ahead, pushing forward and preparing for peace, and a peace that will be secure and that will last.” Earlier in the day, Putin’s first prime minister, Mikhail Kasyanov, who now opposes the Russian president, said his former boss would not accept Nato or European troops being deployed to Ukraine, but might agree to soldiers from “friendly countries” such as India and Brazil.
Comment: I wonder if troops from any of those 29 countries in this coalition of the willing would be acceptable to Moscow. I doubt it. But any peace keeping force is a long way off. I think this whole exercise is more a show of solidarity with Ukraine than arranging a serious peacekeeping force. If it comes together and is deployed, by some miracle and/or act of collective courage, it will serve as a security guarantee to the Ukrainian people. As a matter of practicality, such a force should also keep an eye on Ukrainian long range missiles, drones and SOF to help assuage Russia’s fears. Will anyone do the same to protect Ukraine from Russian long range drones, missiles and SOF? I bet that won’t even be a consideration in the peace talks whenever they come about.
TTG
On March 13, U.S. Central Command forces, in cooperation with Iraqi Intelligence and Security Forces, conducted a precision airstrike in Al Anbar Province, Iraq, that killed the Global ISIS #2 leader, Chief of Global Operations and the Delegated Committee Emir – Abdallah Makki Muslih al-Rifai, alias “Abu Khadijah”, and one other ISIS operative.
As the Emir of ISIS’ most senior decision-making body, Abu Khadijah maintained responsibility for operations, logistics, and planning conducted by ISIS globally, and directs a significant portion of finance for the group’s global organization.
After the strike, CENTCOM and Iraqi forces moved to the strike site and found both dead ISIS terrorists. Both terrorists were wearing unexploded “suicide vests” and had multiple weapons. CENTCOM and Iraqi forces were able to identify Abu Khadijah through a DNA match from DNA collected on a previous raid where Abu Khadijah narrowly escaped.
“Abu Khadijah was one of the most important ISIS members in the entire global ISIS organization. We will continue to kill terrorists and dismantle their organizations that threaten our homeland and U.S., allied and partner personnel in the region and beyond,” said Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, commander, U.S. Central Command.
https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1900737395915440260
Comment: At least we’re consistent in targeting ISIS as an enemy. Trump was excited about this one. Last night he put this statement out on his social media platform:
“Today the fugitive leader of ISIS in Iraq was killed. He was relentlessly hunted down by our intrepid warfighters. His miserable life was terminated, along with another member of ISIS, in coordination with the Iraqi Government and the Kurdish Regional Government. PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH!”
In addition to CENTCOM, Trump also has Gabbard whispering in his ear that the jihadi terrorists are bad. That’s one point that she is absolutely consistent on. This may be the one bit of US policy, foreign and domestic, that will not be turned on its head. This strike on Abu Kadijh with the assistance of Iraqi intelligence is not just a one off. The SDF and Iraqi Intelligence were also instrumental in two other victories over ISIS this month.
On March 6, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), enabled by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces, conducted a raid and captured Salah Mohammad Al-Abdullah, an ISIS cell leader in the vicinity of Shahil, Syria. During the operation, the SDF recovered multiple weapons to include a 12.7mm (.50 cal) Sniper rifle, an AK-47, hand grenades, and various weapons and ammunition.
The SDF-led operation is part of the ongoing Defeat-ISIS campaign to degrade ISIS networks and prevent the resurgence of the terrorist group in the region. CENTCOM forces enabled SDF during the operation by providing technical support and intelligence.
. . . . .
U.S. Central Command commends Iraqi Intelligence and Security forces on the successful operation leading to the capture and arrest of Chechen ISIS terrorist Umm Hussein, the wife of ISIS leader Abu Khadija, who was killed in a strike on March 13. Umm Hussein has been an active member of ISIS. An additional two ISIS terrorists were captured in the operation. This is a testament to Iraq’s continued commitment to dismantling ISIS networks and ensuring the safety and security of the region. CENTCOM, with our partners and allies, remain steadfast in our efforts to eliminate ISIS and prevent its resurgence.
So we still have allies in the region, allies with which we engage in hostilities against a common enemy. That’s quite a call back to the way America has operated in the world since WWII. I hope we, as a nation, don’t forget that.
TTG
Today in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia – under the gracious hospitality of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – the United States and Ukraine took important steps toward restoring durable peace for Ukraine. Representatives of both nations praised the bravery of the Ukrainian people in defense of their nation and agreed that now is the time to begin a process toward lasting peace.
The Ukrainian delegation reiterated the Ukrainian people’s strong gratitude to President Trump, the U.S. Congress, and the people of the United States for making possible meaningful progress toward peace. Ukraine expressed readiness to accept the U.S. proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties, and which is subject to acceptance and concurrent implementation by the Russian Federation.
The United States will communicate to Russia that Russian reciprocity is the key to achieving peace. The United States will immediately lift the pause on intelligence sharing and resume security assistance to Ukraine.
The delegations also discussed the importance of humanitarian relief efforts as part of the peace process, particularly during the above-mentioned ceasefire, including the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children.
Both delegations agreed to name their negotiating teams and immediately begin negotiations toward an enduring peace that provides for Ukraine’s long-term security. The United States committed to discussing these specific proposals with representatives from Russia. The Ukrainian delegation reiterated that European partners shall be involved in the peace process.
Lastly, both countries’ presidents agreed to conclude as soon as possible a comprehensive agreement for developing Ukraine’s critical mineral resources to expand Ukraine’s economy and guarantee Ukraine’s long-term prosperity and security.
https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-on-the-united-states-ukraine-meeting-in-jeddah
Comment: The hokey pokey is a descriptive more often applies to Trump’s on again off again tariff policies these days, but I find it equally apt for describing his path to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian War. Luckily for Kyiv, the cut off of US material support and intelligence was short lived. The biggest effect was a serious degradation of her ability to defend Ukrainian airspace against missiles and drones. Some blame the cut off for the loss of the Kursk salient, but I doubt thats the case. The salient has been shrinking for months. It was bound to be reduced. Russia has put their best VDV divisions and brigades and naval infantry brigades here along with the 12,000 North Koreans. Most importantly, Russia’s best drone unit arrived there in the last few weeks. They are damned good and pretty much shut down resupply into Sudza for well over a week. The Ukrainian Army still managed to pull back in good order. Unfortunately those good Russian units include the drone unit will soon probably head to the Donbas.
But back to the US-Ukrainian agreement. It’s not a ceasefire. It’s a call for a ceasefire if Russia responds in kind. In exchange the US material and intelligence support has been restored. In addition, Ukraine is now on the good side of Trump. Zelenskiy has been invited to return to the White House to sign the mineral deal. That will further tie the US to the survival of Ukraine. After all, no Ukraine, no mineral deal. It will be interesting to see if Zelenskiy wears a suit this time.
I’m surprised the joint statement specifically mentions “the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children.” Beyond the prisoner exchange, which should be fairly normal, these things will probably not sit well in the Kremlin. The noise out of Moscow so far is that Russian wants no part of a ceasefire, thirty day or permanent. They want total victory. Trump’s going to have to square that with his rhetoric that his buddy Putin wants a peace deal. Or will he increase expand sanctions and other financial prices because his good buddy dissed him?
TTG
By Robert Willmann
Since written governmental law deals only with words, anything is possible. This nifty state of affairs is great for some people until it runs into human nature, mathematics, production, and Mother Nature. Not being made up of volunteers working for no pay, the federal government as an organization needs money. The Congress is to arrange for the money, and the magic word is “appropriate”. After saying that a certain amount of money is needed, the federal government tells the public to pay up in the form of taxes, fees, and tariffs, whether the public likes it or not. If not enough money comes in, the government borrows money and tells the public to pay that, too.
The payments made to the federal treasury are not voluntary, and the latest order to pay starts with the proposed House Resolution 1968, which is 99 pages long and begins with the usual wording [1]—
“The following sums are hereby appropriated, out of any money in the Treasury not otherwise appropriated, and out of applicable corporate or other revenues, receipts, and funds, for the several departments, agencies, corporations, and other organizational units of Government for fiscal year 2025, and for other purposes….”
This bill is set to be voted on later today, 11 March 2025. The House Committee on Rules after a vote of 9 to 3, sent at 9:26 p.m. last night what became House Resolution 211. It provides a fast track to vote on the “continuing resolution” to order funding for the government to avoid the shutdown process that would begin after 14 March, this Friday.
At 12:35 p.m. central time, the House considered H. Res. 211 to pave the way for the the money bill, H.R. 1968. By a vote of 216 to 214, with two members not voting, the resolution was approved.
But where is that voracious, prowling tiger — the federal debt? It is nowhere to be seen in H.R. 1968. Not a word about the “debt limit”. The Treasury Department is maneuvering by using “extraordinary measures” to stay below the latest limit which appeared on 2 January 2025 as $36,103,996,000,000. As of last Friday, 7 March 2025, the debt subject to the limit was $36,103,971,000,000, a scant $25 million below the limit, according to the Daily Treasury Statement. The total debt was $36,217,824,000,000 [2].
The Trump administration from day one announced that it was stopping a lot of foreign aid money, although still providing some to Ukraine, Israel, and probably others. This action had a second effect: it reduced federal expenditures. The cuts in federal employment and contracts do also. Income taxes paid into the the government increase this time of year before the first tax day in April. The extraordinary measures by the Treasury Department further assist the effort to keep the total debt that is issued below the ceiling.
We discussed here previously the two letters sent by former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to Congress about the debt limit problem. Before the current Secretary Scott Bessent was sworn in on 28 January 2025, the Acting Secretary, David Lebryk, sent on 23 January a similar letter to Congress advising it of the ongoing extraordinary measures.
The Treasury Department now gives us the following list of the extraordinary measures regarding the debt subject to the limit — from 21 January to 5 March 2025. The word “measures” seems to refer to the amounts of money, stated in billions of dollars.
What is happening today is the House of Representatives wants to order by legislation that money be provided to keep the federal government operating from 15 March until the end of September 2025. If the bill passes, then the Senate will have to consider it as is or with modifications. Congress previously passed a law on 20-21 December 2024 to fund the government through 14 March 2025.
However, a so-called federal budget was separately produced and passed with new and unusual language in February 2025 by the House in House Concurrent Resolution 14 and by the Senate in Senate Concurrent Resolution 7. These proposals are disturbing and describe the rest of fiscal year 2025 and forward for fiscal years 2026 through 2034. They are another subject for discussion.
Starting around 2:40 p.m. central time, the House began discussion of H.R. 1968, to be one hour. Previously this afternoon, they considered a bill to extend the statute of limitations for fraud in the Covid-19 payments, and a bill stating disapproval of an IRS rule about the sale of cryptocurrency. A recorded vote on those two bills is postponed.
Recorded votes on all three bills could take place later today.
[1] House Resolution 1968, filed on 10 March 2025.
http://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hr1968/BILLS-119hr1968ih.pdf
http://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1968/text
[2] Daily Treasury Statement. Friday, March 7, 2025.
A Kurdish-led militia alliance which controls north-eastern Syria has signed a deal to integrate all military and civilian institutions into the Syrian state, the country’s presidency says. The agreement, which includes a complete cessation of hostilities, says the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) will hand over control of the region’s border posts, airport, and vital oil and gas fields. It also recognises the Kurdish minority as “an integral part of the Syrian state” and guarantees “the rights of all Syrians to representation and participation in the political process”. SDF commander Mazloum Abdi called the deal a “real opportunity to build a new Syria”. “We are committed to building a better future that guarantees the rights of all Syrians and fulfils their aspirations for peace and dignity,” he wrote on X after signing the deal in Damascus on Monday alongside interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa.
The deal represents a major step towards Sharaa’s goal to unify the fractured country after his Sunni Islamist group led the rebel offensive that overthrew president Bashar al-Assad in December and ended 13 years of devastating civil war. It could also de-escalate the SDF’s conflict with neighbouring Turkey and Turkish-backed Syrian former rebel factions allied to the government, which are trying to push the alliance out of areas near the border. There were celebrations welcoming the announcement of the deal on the streets of several cities on Monday night, with many people expressing relief at a time when Syria is facing several other threats to its stability.
The recent mass killings of Alawite civilians in the western coastal region during clashes between security forces and Assad loyalists have sparked calls for international protection for Syria’s religious and ethnic minorities and amplified voices promoting division. There is also concern about the south, where some Druze militias in Suweida province have been reluctant to lay down their arms. However, Suweida residents said representatives met Sharaa in Damascus on Monday and a deal like the SDF’s was expected soon. Israel has also threatened to intervene to protect the Druze from the government, which it considers a threat. It has also carried out an air campaign to destroy much of Syria’s military capabilities and seized a demilitarised buffer zone next to the occupied Golan Heights.
The SDF, which has tens of thousands of well-armed and well-trained fighters, was not aligned with either Assad’s regime or the opposition during the civil war. It currently controls more than 46,000 sq km (18,000 sq miles) of territory in the north-east, where it defeated the Islamic State (IS) group in 2019 with the help of a US-led coalition. The SDF plays a major role in the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), which governs the region also known to Kurds as Rojava. About 10,000 IS fighters are being detained in SDF-run prisons spread across the region and about 45,000 other people linked to IS, mostly women and children, are held in several camps. Since the fall of Assad, the SDF has warned that attacks from Turkish-backed factions are forcing it to divert fighters away from guarding the prisons and paving the way for an IS resurgence.
The Turkish government views the biggest militia in the SDF, the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), as a terrorist organisation. It says it the YPG is an extension of the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) group that waged an insurgency in Turkey for decades but whose imprisoned leader recently declared a ceasefire. There was no immediate comment from Turkey in response to Monday’s agreement. However, Turkish officials have previously called for all Kurdish-led groups in north-eastern Syria to dissolve and integrate with the new government. Several Arab countries welcomed the deal, with Saudi Arabia and Qatar both describing it as an important step towards maintaining “civil peace”.
Between 25 and 35 million Kurds inhabit a mountainous region straddling the borders of Turkey, Iraq, Syria, Iran and Armenia. They make up the fourth-largest ethnic group in the Middle East, but they have never obtained a permanent nation state. Syria’s Kurds, which make up about make up about 10% of the population, were suppressed and denied basic rights during the Assad family’s rule.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cedlx0511w7o
Comment: Well son of a gun. This is big. And it comes at a time when Syria appears to be on the verge of falling back into violent civil war. This not only doubles the territory now under control of Damascus, but also doubles the size of the SAA, or whatever it will eventually be called. Wladimir van Wilgenburg, a long time watcher of the Kurds and especially the Syrian Kurds reported about an interview on 17 February with Mazloum Abdi, the commander of the SDF. In that interview Abdi stated that “the fundamental principle we agree on is that there should not be two separate armies, but rather a single, unified military force.” He also dismissed speculation that the SDF aims to replicate the Iraqi Kurdistan model: “Syria is not Iraq, nor is northeastern Syria equivalent to Kurdistan”, he said. The general also confirmed that the US had been actively mediating to facilitate dialogue between the SDF and Damascus.
So we finally arrive at the final stage of a US sponsored resistance, phase VII- transition meaning demobilization of the resistance force or transition to national control. Odd that we waited until Assad was gone before we moved to the transition phase, although the agreement was the outcome of months of negotiations mediated by the US. Perhaps we were talking with the Assad government before he fell. All this should mean that our withdrawal from Syria is on the horizon. We should be getting out of al Tanf as well.
In addition to this Damascus – SDF deal, the Al Sharaa government has also come to a similar agreement with the Druze of Suwayda. The Druze militias of Suwayda Military Council will be merged into the Syrian Ministry of the Interior. Both these agreements should give Damascus some breathing room to defuse the fighting on the coast and address the massacres committed mostly by the Turkish affiliated militias, but also HTS forces. Bringing the YPG under the control of Damascus may entice Türkiye to assist rather than hinder this effort.
TTG
WASHINGTON (AP) — References to a World War II Medal of Honor recipient, the Enola Gay aircraft that dropped an atomic bomb on Japan and the first women to pass Marine infantry training are among the tens of thousands of photos and online posts marked for deletion as the Defense Department works to purge diversity, equity and inclusion content, according to a database obtained by The Associated Press. The database, which was confirmed by U.S. officials and published by AP, includes more than 26,000 images that have been flagged for removal across every military branch. But the eventual total could be much higher.
One official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to provide details that have not been made public, said the purge could delete as many as 100,000 images or posts in total, when considering social media pages and other websites that are also being culled for DEI content. The official said it’s not clear if the database has been finalized.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had given the military until Wednesday to remove content that highlights diversity efforts in its ranks following President Donald Trump’s executive order ending those programs across the federal government. The vast majority of the Pentagon purge targets women and minorities, including notable milestones made in the military. And it also removes a large number of posts that mention various commemorative months — such as those for Black and Hispanic people and women. But a review of the database also underscores the confusion that has swirled among agencies about what to remove following Trump’s order.
In some cases, photos seemed to be flagged for removal simply because their file included the word ”gay,” including service members with that last name and an image of the B-29 aircraft Enola Gay, which dropped the first atomic bomb on Hiroshima, Japan, during World War II. Several photos of an Army Corps of Engineers dredging project in California were marked for deletion, apparently because a local engineer in the photo had the last name Gay. And a photo of Army Corps biologists was on the list, seemingly because it mentioned they were recording data about fish — including their weight, size, hatchery and gender.
In addition, some photos of the Tuskegee Airmen, the nation’s first Black military pilots who served in a segregated WWII unit, were listed on the database, but those may likely be protected due to historical content. The Air Force briefly removed new recruit training courses that included videos of the Tuskegee Airmen soon after Trump’s order. That drew the White House’s ire over “malicious compliance,” and the Air Force quickly reversed the removal.
Many of the images listed in the database already have been removed. Others were still visible Thursday, and it’s not clear if they will be taken down at some point or be allowed to stay, including images with historical significance such as those of the Tuskegee Airmen.
Asked about the database, Pentagon spokesman John Ullyot said in a statement, “We are pleased by the rapid compliance across the Department with the directive removing DEI content from all platforms. In the rare cases that content is removed that is out of the clearly outlined scope of the directive, we instruct components accordingly.” He noted that Hegseth has declared that “DEI is dead” and that efforts to put one group ahead of another through DEI programs erodes camaraderie and threatens mission execution.
Comment: Yes, DEI is dead and will soon be forgotten, just like Yehzov. Surely the innocent victims of this anti-DEI exuberance, like the Enola Gay or the Tuskegee Airmen will soon be given justice. That’s just crazy, but it does show the extent of the fear being instilled across the DoD and elsewhere in our government. Lord help you if you do not cheer enthusiastically enough for the new order. You might end up like Yehzov.
TTG
The United States has paused major portions of its intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, squeezing the flow of vital information that Kyiv has used to repel invading Russian forces and strike back at select targets inside Russia, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials. The rupture in intelligence-sharing includes a halt in targeting data that U.S. spy agencies supply to Kyiv so it can launch American-provided weapons and Ukrainian-made long-range drones at Russian targets, Ukrainian officials said. Some Ukrainian missile operators say they are no longer receiving information needed to hit targets inside Russia.
The pause comes amid a decision early this week by President Donald Trump to freeze future deliveries of weapons to Ukraine, to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into peace negotiations with Russia. CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed the latest move Wednesday, telling Fox News that the United States has paused both intelligence-sharing and weapons systems in the aftermath of a contentious Oval Office meeting last week between Trump and Zelensky. Ratcliffe said the pauses would “go away” once it was clear Zelensky was committed to peace.
The move is another major reversal from the approach of the Biden administration, which set up special systems to share copious amounts of intelligence on Russian military forces with Ukraine, officials said — virtually unprecedented for a non-NATO country. Trump administration officials did not offer specifics on when the United States began restricting intelligence-sharing with Ukraine or what the new limitations are.
A U.S. defense official confirmed on Wednesday that most intelligence-sharing via military channels with Ukraine has been suspended. It was not immediately clear what the exceptions to that decision were, but they may include information related to self-defense. Another person familiar with the pause said the Trump administration had halted all intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, other than information needed for “force protection” — protecting Ukrainian troops under attack. Both spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.
A Ukrainian military officer familiar with operations of the long-range multiple rocket launching system known as HIMARS, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak freely about classified intelligence, said that for roughly the past month, at least one of the Ukrainian groups responsible for launching rockets from the U.S. systems has not received coordinates to strike more than about 40 miles beyond the line of contact between Russian and Ukrainian forces.
Such intelligence had allowed Ukraine to use the U.S.-provided HIMARS systems to launch ATACMS, a longer-range U.S. guided missile system, and strike targets deep inside occupied Ukrainian territory or inside of Russia. The strikes have disabled some Russian air defense systems and forced Moscow to move its logistical hubs hundreds of miles from the front lines, which has slowed down Russian resupply operations. But in recent weeks, these coordinates have stopped being delivered, the Ukrainian military officer said, apparently signaling that such intelligence-sharing had halted.
https://archive.md/9pWFw#selection-807.0-905.169
Comment: This is how the WaPo covered the initial announcement of the halt of US intelligence support to Ukraine. Even now, the full extent of this cutoff isn’t clear, but it seems to be fairly comprehensive. It includes military satellite ISR data, RIVET JOINT manned aircraft ISR data and now Maxar commercial imagery. It surely includes SIGINT and HUMINT.
The obvious reason is to pressure Ukraine into seeking an immediate cease fire and some semblance of a peace amenable to the Trump administration, to cause Ukraine enough pain at the hand of the Russians to force them to the table, whether they want to or not. It makes perfect sense if Trump believes he only has leverage on Ukraine and none on Russia. I think it is only recently that Trump has realized that he does hold leverage over Russia. However, I believe in both cases, his leverage is limited. It will be up to Ukraine and Russia to decide when a ceasefire and peace talks will be appropriate.
The loss of US intelligence is a grievous blow to Ukraine’s ability to both defend herself and launch further offensive actions against Russia and this loss has already brought death and destruction to the Ukrainians. But not all is lost. Europe is stepping up to seal the breach caused by our withdrawal of support.
Britain has three RIVET JOINT aircraft. That will help alleviate the loss of the US RIVET JOINTs, but limited refueling capacity also hurts. France has offered her CSO reconnaissance satellites. The third satellite of the constellation was just put into orbit this week. Finland’s ICEYE SAR satellite constellation is also available. These three platforms should soon be able to provide the early warning of Russian missile and drone strikes to allow Ukraine to react properly to those attacks, but the replacement will not be immediate or complete.
On the offensive side, the loss of US intelligence will have little effect on the tactical level. Drones have taken the place of most methods of battlefield reconnaissance, surveillance and target acquisition and the Ukrainians are probably the masters of drone warfare. Even so, one Ukrainian drone operator has said that their UAV operations are 15% less effective because of the US intel cut off. That’s quite a bit. Ukraine’s HUMINT and special ops reconnaissance capabilities are also fairly robust. What the loss of US intelligence does affect is Ukraine’s ability to use ATACMS, but even that effect is limited more by supply than a loss of intel..
CONFIRMED: Crews of the M142 GMLRS (HIMARS) and M270 and MARS MLRS use the onboard Fire Control System to program each rocket in the field. M30/M31 munitions do not require any U.S. DoD input, intel, or authorization. There is no “kill switch” or “geofencing.” Ukraine has been using M30/M31 rockets since June 2022 without the need for U.S. intel. HIMARS is not disabled.
The MGM-140 ATACMS tactical ballistic missile is dependent on U.S. ISTAR and intel for programming, which is why there were 2+ years of resistance to provide them to Ukraine. Currently, ATACMS can’t be used, but there is a twist. Ukraine has already exhausted its MGM-140 inventory, and even if Harris had won the 2024 election, it was unlikely that it would receive additional shipments due to inventory constraints.
As an aside, some time ago Yeah, Right and I went round and round about this very point. So as it turns out Yeah, Right was correct in pointing out that Ukrainian use of ATACMS requires US input for targeting. I was correct in that the Ukrainians do not require any US input to use HIMARS.
As far as long range drone strikes are concerned, the loss of US intelligence seems to have limited effect. Oil refineries are still being struck. The loss of imagery would affect damage assessment, but drone imagery seems to work here, too. I think the biggest effect of the US intelligence cut off is due to the suddenness of the cut off.
TTG
After a failed mission in January, SpaceX on Thursday launched its eighth suborbital flight test of its fully integrated Starship megarocket, a combination of the ship’s upper stage (S34) and the Super Heavy booster (B15), at Starbase in Boca Chica, Texas. Unfortunately, history repeated itself when Starship’s upper stage made it into space only to start spinning uncontrollably before losing contact and breaking apart, sending debris cascading back to earth early Thursday evening.
One of the goals of the flight was to catch the Super Heavy booster using the chopsticks on the launch tower, which was completed successfully.
“During Starship’s ascent burn, the vehicle experienced a rapid unscheduled disassembly and contact was lost. Our team immediately began coordination with safety officials to implement pre-planned contingency responses,” SpaceX said in a statement. “We will review the data from today’s flight test to better understand [the] root cause. As always, success comes from what we learn, and today’s flight will offer additional lessons to improve Starship’s reliability.” SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has not commented following the launch, as of 7:45 p.m.
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) released a statement noting it is requiring SpaceX to perform a “mishap investigation” into the loss of the Starship. “During the event, the FAA activated a Debris Response Area and briefly slowed aircraft outside the area where space vehicle debris was falling or stopped aircraft at their departure location,” according to the statement. “Normal operations have resumed.” A mishap investigation is designed to enhance public safety, determine the root cause of the event, and identify corrective actions to avoid it from happening again, according to the FAA. “The FAA will be involved in every step of the SpaceX-led mishap investigation process and must approve SpaceX’s final report, including any corrective actions,” according to the statement.
SpaceX announcers who were streaming during the launch said the controllers lost contact with the ship, noting a debris response plan was in effect and air traffic control was “keeping public safe.”
“We fly to learn,” announcers said before the broadcast ended.
Comment: Another major event that slipped past me. At least SpaceX got the boosters down. But the Starship has yet to achieve orbit. Maybe next time.
I do wonder if any of the WaterTribers caught a glimpse of the explosion from the Keys. I missed the start of this year’s Everglades Challenge, too.
TTG
Here’s a chance to chime in on last night’s State of the Union speech. My primary observation is that Trump has been consistent in his message. What he’s been saying since being in office is what he said last night. No surprises. I thought he’s have more to say on Ukraine, NATO and Russia, but I doubt that his primary concern right now.
TTG
The European military logistics and capability required to penetrate Russian lines and send them into chaos isn’t big. It’s the requirement for ‘leadership’ – which is immense. Remember, the EU (1993) is a post-Soviet (1991) organization built to foster compromise, not leadership and determination.
Russia’s position in its ongoing war in Ukraine exhibits significant fragility across multiple critical dimensions, including severe military setbacks, deepening economic pressures, worsening demographic crisis, and unsustainable equipment losses. Despite evidence of Russian resilience—such as limited economic adaptation and persistent territorial control—these strengths are increasingly overshadowed by systemic vulnerabilities. A modestly sized but well-organized military coalition could exploit Russia’s thinly stretched lines, triggering a prolonged military crisis. Recent history has repeatedly shown Russia’s weaknesses in responding swiftly and effectively to unexpected offensives or deep penetrations of its defensive lines.
[Cook lays out a number of points to support his argument and even some reasonable counterpoints. They range from military weaknesses, economic strains, to the almost universal demographic crisis. You can read them at the link.]
Recap and Analysis: Even considering Russia’s points of resilience, its overall strategic position remains profoundly fragile. A well-coordinated, modest-sized military coalition could effectively penetrate Russian defenses, causing long-term disruptions to its military operations. Europe must urgently confront this reality and significantly upgrade its defensive/offensive capabilities. Yet, European leadership has consistently failed to act decisively, instead relying on American security assurances. (This is not a peacekeeping force I am suggesting. This is a pacification force. Make no mistake, Europeans would be killing Russians in Ukraine.)
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/actually-russia-is-at-its-most-fragile
Comment: Those maps are not from Benjamin Cook’s article or from Tom Cooper’s Sarcastosaurus Substack. They are from somebody’s X account who doesn’t strike me as possessing any real military or area expertise. The first is fairly straightforward. We know Russia has been denuding the country of troops to shore up their war in Ukraine. The second is a flight of fancy in my opinion. Here’s the comments that accompany those maps.
There are no Ru infantry, mech, tank, or artillery units anywhere in the space between NATO and Moscow. There haven’t been any for 18 months. There’s only air and air defence. This is the most astonishingly under reported fact in the whole Ukraine War. NATO could be in Moscow in days, like Prigozhin was 18 months ago.
With NATO air support, there is no reason why the Estonian ground forces—one division—could not march to Moscow. Add Latvia, Lithuania, and Finland, and that force would be bigger than Prigozhin’s—and he only stopped because he was conned—and would sack the Kremlin for sure.
One Estonian division is not going to march to Moscow with or without NATO air support. A force of several divisions from Poland, the Baltics and Finland are not going to do that, either. First, there is will or desire to do such a foolish thing. Second, NATO forces have no experience on a drone dominated battlefield. There may be no Russian drones in the first few days, but they would be there shortly. Third, such a NATO move would trigger a frantic Russian response, hypersonic missiles on European cities or even nuclear strikes. That would be gambling with WWIII.
Fantasies aside, what else does all this suggest? Russia is either totally unconcerned about a ground invasion of Russian territory or just doesn’t have the troops to guard her borders against a ground invasion of her territory. Probably a combination of both. And NATO, including the Baltics, face no immediate threat of invasion from Russia. Admiral Stavridis, USN, Ret. posted a graphic of the comparative strength of European NATO countries compared to the US, China and Russia and left this comment.
Europe has enormous capability in the military especially land forces — see this graphic. The question is: do they have the will to use it, if needed, against Russia. Now that the United States is increasingly aligned with Putin, watch for them to decide they will do exactly that.
https://x.com/Doktor_Klein/status/1895523734272033148
I consider it very likely that NATO will have to stick by Ukraine’s side without the US. They talk brave, but are still full of trepidation. They’re never had to do this before. Given the current weak state of Russia and the potential that Europe can cobble together in a coherent response for her beleaguered neighbor, I am confident that it can be done. But it’s not a sure thing. I’m sure Trump can almost taste his Trump Tower in Moscow as he cuts off all US aid to Ukraine and abandons NATO. the wild card in all this is China. Ukraine has reached out to Beijing this weekend. Xi may want that Nobel Peace Prize just to rub it in Trump’s face.
TTG
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