We maintain and continue this committee of correspondence in memory of our founder and mentor, Colonel W. Patrick Lang. The image to the right is Marcus, a character from William S. Burroughs’s “The Coming of the Purple Better One.” Colonel Lang would refer to Marcus sometimes in clever jest, sometimes in biting social commentary and sometimes simply because he liked Marcus. May everyone who corresponds here do so in a similar spirit.
Essential Writings on History, War, Religion and Strategy
From the Introduction:
“In the aftermath of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, Col. Lang created his own blog which to this day still serves as a committee of correspondence for a large network of former military and intelligence officers, diplomats, and scholars of international affairs.
Since its launch in 2005, the Turcopolier website has had over 40 million unique visits.
Since leaving the government, he has also authored five books, including a Civil War espionage trilogy, a memoir of his years in government service, and a primer on human intelligence.
This present volume—his sixth book—is an anthology of some of his most important writings. The content speaks for itself. So have at it.”
President-elect Donald Trump on Saturday demanded a group of developing countries commitment to the use of the U.S. dollar as their reserve currency and threatened to impose a 100 percent tariff if they attempt to abandon it.
“The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER,” Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social, referring to the acronym for the original group of countries in the bloc — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The geopolitical alliance has since expanded to include Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates. “We require a commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy.”
Officials from the BRICS countries have discussed moving away from the U.S. dollar in recent years including at the 2024 BRICS Summit last month. The concept gained steam in 2022 when the U.S. imposed massive economic sanctions on Russia over its war in Ukraine.
Trump also said in his post that the countries “can go find another ‘sucker!’ There is no chance that the BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade, and any Country that tries should wave goodbye to America.” The statement comes as the president-elect steps up his tariff threats, after he announced plans to impose a 25 percent tariff on Mexico and Canada and a 10 percent additional tariff on China over illegal migration and drug trafficking into the United States.
A spokesperson for the Trump transition team did not immediately respond to a request from POLITICO to clarify the total percentage of tariffs planned for China or other BRICS countries.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/30/trump-brics-tariff-trade-00192042
Comment: Damn. I know Trump says a lot of things, but this gives a new meaning to “America First.” This morning our EO voiced his apprehension about Trump and his future relationship with the neocon agenda. I think this Trump statement may give EO his answer. Trump is not interested in repeating the old Charles Lindbergh version of “America First.” He’s not aiming for isolation. He’s aiming to assert America’s power in the world. At least it’s economic power rather than military power. I doubt the cut throat real estate mogul from New York City is going to cut Putin or anybody else any slack in making America great again. We’re in for some interesting times.
TTG
CNN — Syrian opposition forces have taken control of much of the country’s second largest city Aleppo, according to residents in the city and video verified by CNN. A rebel alliance launched a surprise attack this week, sweeping eastward through villages outside the city and reigniting a conflict that had been largely static for years. It is the first time Syrian rebels have set foot in Aleppo since government forces regained control during the civil war in 2016.
By Saturday morning, rebel fighters had taken control of large swathes of the city, according to footage geolocated by CNN. Rebel fighters have been seen at key locations, with one video showing armed men waving an opposition flag and yelling “God is great” in Arabic at a central square. Another clip shows rebels at the city’s citadel, which is also in central Aleppo. At least one man in the clip is armed, as he says: “We are the first to arrive and the first to conquer.” The only exception appears to be the northeastern part of the city, where a few neighborhoods remain under the control of government forces and Iranian militia allies.
The rebel forces have declared a 24 hour curfew to begin at 5 p.m. local time Saturday, which they said was to ensure “the safety of the residents of the city and to secure private and public property from tampering or harm.”
Syria’s defense ministry said dozens of soldiers have been killed in the Aleppo offensive. It acknowledged that rebel forces had entered the city but claimed that they “were unable to establish solid positions” and reinforcements were arriving in preparation for a counteroffensive.
It appears the advancing rebels met little resistance from the Syrian army, with several residents inside Aleppo telling CNN that there has been minimal fighting in the city’s urban areas. In response to the rebel advance, the Russian air force on Friday launched an aerial offensive against Syrian armed opposition forces in Aleppo and Idlib provinces, Russian state media reported.
Kurdish forces have also expanded their control of some neighborhoods of Aleppo, residents said. Prior to this week’s attack they held two Kurdish neighborhoods but have now moved into areas that the Syrian regime used to control. The Kurdish militia, known as the YPG, have a history of conflict with other rebel groups in northern Syria. There has already been one clash Saturday between members of the rebel alliance and Kurdish fighters inside the city, according to video analyzed by CNN. Part of the rebel coalition says it now intends to launch an offensive against the Kurdish groups holding parts of northern Aleppo province.
The rebels are part of a newly formed coalition called the “Military Operations Command,” which includes a broad spectrum of opposition fighters including Islamist factions and moderate groups once backed by the US. The coalition was announced Wednesday ahead of the attack on Aleppo and said it was responding to escalating attacks from the Syrian government and Iranian militias. But the timing is also critical, with Syria’s key backer Russia focusing on Ukraine and its other major ally, Iran, on the back foot from Israeli attacks on it and its proxy network.
The offensive is the first major flare-up in years between the Syrian opposition and the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, who has ruled the war-torn country since 2000. Syria’s civil war began during the 2011 Arab Spring as the regime suppressed a pro-democracy uprising against Assad. The country plunged into a full-scale civil war as a rebel force was formed, known as the Free Syrian Army, to combat government troops. Since the 2020 ceasefire agreement, the conflict has remained largely dormant, with low-level clashes between the rebels and Assad’s regime. More than 300,000 civilians have been killed in more than a decade of war, according to the United Nations, and millions of people have been displaced across the region.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/30/middleeast/syrian-rebels-control-aleppo-city-intl/index.html
I wanted to wait a day before addressing this latest round of fighting in Syria. It does appear the rebels have taken Aleppo and south down the M5 to Khan Shaykhoun. How far they go is anyone’s guess. I’m sure there are plenty of jihadis among the rebels of what is now called the Military Operations Command (or Command of Military Operations) based in Idlib. Levant24, a media group also based in Idlib is calling it the Syrian National Army and the offensive is the “Dawn of Freedom” operation. It is an amalgamation of 13 groups totalling 60,000 troops including HTS under Abu Mohammed al-Golani. Although HTS was at one time an al Qaeda affiliate, Golani broke from al Qaeda in 2016. They have allowed Christian church services in Idlib. The Druze community in Idlib Provence have thrown in with the MOC or SNA. But I’ve still seen videos of jihadis vowing to kill and enslave anyone who is not a jihadi.
The Russians remaining in Syria have pulled out of numerous positions around Aleppo and Deir ez Zor. They’re probably consolidating around their port in Tartus. Much of the Hezbollah and IRGC personnel withdrew earlier due to their war with Israel leaving a vacuum in the region. Syria is too important to both Russia and Iran for them to allow Syria to fall without a serious fight. Their pullback will most likely lead to an eventual renewed offensive against these rebels/jihadis. However, it appears Assad has hastily flown to Moscow with his family. Perhaps he’s not so sure about that eventual renewed offensive or he’s desperately seeking more Russian assistance. Either way, the optics are poor.
The rebel forces were trained. equipped and organized by Turkey. I think I’m safe in claiming that. I’m sure Ankara is calling all the shots in the offensive. The rebels have used Turkish M-60 tanks and have been able to drive off Russian aircraft with MANPADS. The rebels have also made liberal use of drones against the government forces. I wonder where they learned that? What’s in it for Türkiye? It’s no secret she want’s northern Syria to become part of Türkiye. Already there has been a flow of refugees flowing out of Türkiye back into the newly liberated regions of Idlib and Aleppo. That couldn’t have happened this fast without prior planning in Ankara.
The YPG Kurds in the north of Aleppo are still there. They are in a precarious position and are seeking to avoid a major confrontation with the Idlib rebels. I don’t know how long that will last.
TTG
https://apnews.com/article/syria-hts-assad-aleppo-fighting-2be43ee530b7932b123a0f26b158ac22
https://levant24.com/news/national/2024/11/sna-launches-dawn-of-freedom-operation/
One of my pre-occupations is the cycle of novels that I wrote concerned with what I think I learned in life. It is set in the American Civil War and called “Strike the Tent.” Why? If I knew why perhaps I could have set it in some other time and place. I have been writing at this for a long time. In one of the books, there is the story of a French professional soldier (John Balthazar), an officer with much service in Africa, who is sent to America to “observe” Lee’s army for his government. Once here, he becomes ever more involved until he ends by being asked to form a provisional battalion of infantry from men nobody else knows what to do with. Line crossers, men from broken units, disciplinary problems, etc. He sets out to do that. In this passage we see his battalion going into Winter Quarters in November, 1863 south of Culpeper. Virginia. They have just made a long withdrawal to the south, away from the disastrous field of Rapahannock Station. Pat Lang
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“Throughout the army, soldiers started to construct their winter quarters. They had lived so long in the forest that they could build solid little houses of sticks and mud if they had a couple of weeks in which to work. Small towns arose in the woods. They filled up the forests that sloped away to the northwest from the foot of Pony Mountain. Smoke drifted in the wind, eddying and streaming, bringing an acrid bite of wood taste in the air. Oak and hickory, maple and poplar, the smoke brought the smell of their little communities so like those their ancestors had made in the beginning of their new life in America. The men thought of Thanksgiving; some reached out beyond that to remember Christmas. Balthazar watched his troops build their winter town. He had never seen soldiers do such a thing. In Europe, soldiers on campaign lived under canvas or in requisitioned houses. He thought their skill a marvelous thing, and told them so.
On the 26th they had Thanksgiving. Smoot and Harris explained the nature of this feast to Balthazar, telling him of the memory of God’s providence to the colonists at Jamestown. He heard them out, and sent hunting parties into the woodland.
Jubal Early came to dinner. He sat on a saw horse in the barn where they ate, a tin plate of venison and wild turkey in one hand, a tea cup of whiskey beside him.
The troops sat in the hay eating happily.
Balthazar had taken charge of the cooking, supervising the half dozen Black cooks that Harris recruited in Hays’ brigade. The day the cooking started, Harris was pleased to have several men volunteer to help. Among them was Smith, the “D” Company commander. After watching his creation of an admirable kettle of turkey soup, Balthazar was sure that Smith, like Harris, was professionally trained.
Early complimented them on the stuffing, and said he had never had anything quite like it. He accepted a second helping. He had a chaplain with him, a French Jesuit who worked in the military hospitals in Lynchburg.
The priest and Balthazar chatted in their own language during dinner. The men listened to this with interest, turning from one to the other, examining their commander, seeking assurance of something they could not name.
After dinner, the priest offered his thoughts on the meaning of such a remembrance in wartime and the injustice of the war being waged against them by the North.
The soldiers listened politely.
When the chaplain finished his talk, Early stood up and announced that General Ewell was gone on sick leave for his old wound, and that he would be in command of Second Corps until Ewell came back. He said that they would be attached for now to corps headquarters.
You could see from the soldiers’ faces that they were not sure if that was good or bad.
The priest offered to say Mass if there were Catholics present. A number raised their hands and he moved off to a corner of the barn with them. Balthazar asked Early if he wished to attend the service. After a moment’s thought, the general shrugged and said he could not see any reason not to do so. “After all,” he said, “the Pope has taken note of us.” After Mass, the Jesuit asked if Balthazar wished him to hear his confession. The answer was no.
A courier came at four o’clock the next morning with the news that Meade was across the Rapidan, and marching southeast through the Wilderness.
Balthazar had found among his men a soldier who had been a bugler in a regular U.S. cavalry regiment. “Reveille” sounded sweet and compelling in the darkness of the camp.”
Pat Lang
https://turcopolier.com/thanksgiving_in/
Comment: If you haven’t read Colonel Lang’s Civil War trilogy, you’ve missed out on a great experience. But that’s easy to remedy. Just buy the books and read them. Anyone who is a veteran will recognize much in these books. I know I did. Here are two of my comments to this “Death Piled Hard” excerpt made over the years.
November 28, 2013
Ah, now I know why I have such an affinity for Balthazar. Early in my time as a rifle platoon leader, I dealt rather successfully with a rehab transfer from another battalion. These rehab transfers were soldiers that would otherwise have been drummed out of the Army for various reasons. He quickly became a model soldier. My platoon became the repository for most rehab transfers from other battalions in the brigade. These soldiers and the rest of my platoon proved skillful and had far greater initiative than most other platoons… at least in the field. Those same traits were the source of frequent headaches in garrison. I’d like to think I’d do well in Balthazar’s battalion full of men nobody else knows what to do with.
November 27, 2019
Happy Thanksgiving to all my fellow correspondents. I’m taking a day off from my housewrighting to cook a meal for my family and heal the wounds of the trade. It was a serendipitous coincidence when soon after I read Colonel Lang’s account of Thanksgiving in the field, I also received a Thanksgiving greeting from RPI referring to Thanksgiving and the Civil War. Here’s the pertinent passage.
“While the early history of Thanksgiving in the United States is well known — including the celebration in 1621 of the Pilgrims’ first harvest in the New World, alongside the Native Americans who had taught them survival skills — what is less well known is that Thanksgiving was celebrated only intermittently until the Civil War. In 1863, after several important victories by the Union Army, President Abraham Lincoln established a national precedent that continues today, by proclaiming that the last Thursday in November be set apart for all Americans to celebrate the country’s bounties and blessings. Although President Lincoln originally delineated the observance to be on the last Thursday of November, the date of celebration was changed by Congressional resolution, signed by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in December 1941, to the fourth Thursday in November.”
“The remarkable proclamation, which is believed to have been drafted by Secretary of State William Seward, acknowledges the suffering caused by the Civil War. However, it also recognizes “fruitful fields and healthful skies,” the peace preserved with other nations despite internal strife that they might have seen as an invitation to aggression, the progress of industry despite the costs of war, the increase of the population despite the wasted lives on the battlefield, and the expectation, despite the nation’s wounds, of a “large increase of freedom.” In its enumeration of reasons to be grateful amidst turmoil, it is inspirational.”
As I commented several years ago, Thanksgiving is a special time for soldiers. It’s when we officers don our dress blues, or whites in my time with the 35th Infantry, and man the mess hall chow line to serve the Thanksgiving meal to our troops. I would not be at all surprised if much of our current Thanksgiving emotions and customs are rooted in the experiences of generations of soldiers.
TTG
“They landed at a place called Plymouth (once a famous voiture Americaine ) in a wooden sailing ship called the Mayflower (or Fleur de Mai ) in 1620. But while the Pelerins were killing the dindes, the Peaux-Rouges were killing the Pelerins, and there were several hard winters ahead for both of them. The only way the Peaux-Rouges helped the Pelerins was when they taught them to grow corn (mais). The reason they did this was because they liked corn with their Pelerins.
In 1623, after another harsh year, the Pelerins’ crops were so good that they decided to have a celebration and give thanks because more mais was raised by the Pelerins than Pelerins were killed by Peaux-Rouges.
Every year on the Jour de Merci Donnant, parents tell their children an amusing story about the first celebration and “Kilometres Deboutish” (Miles Standish)”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/23/AR2005112302056.html
This secret (esoteric) history of the first Thanksgiving was discovered many years ago by Art Buchwald (a leader of the Brooklyn branch of the “Illuminati”) whilst he was doing research in the catacombs located beneath the “Crazy Horse” saloon and “salle des danseuses” in Paris (France) (as opposed to Paris, Virginia). The document had lain there moldering amid the cast off “caches sexes” and empty cheese crates for centuries (maybe).
Buchwald successfully penetrated the exoteric “surface”of the text itself to reveal its true meaning. This technique of discerning the inner truth of history had been acquired by Maitre Buchwald while studying at the feet of a great scholar of such matters in Peoria, Illinois (or somewhere out there in the middle of the country) perhaps during his internship at the University of Chicago?
Here, he shares his wisdom with us.
(PS) There is a legend that Buchwald found a note from Brigadier General Sir Harry Flashman VC left with the detritus to the effect that Sir Harry had discovered these materials and had gathered them in the basement for some future use. Presumably Flashman never returned for them, but this story may be apocryphal.
Comment: By way of historical and genetic accident I had nine ancestors among the Pilgrims. Surely you can see them there in the painting. PL
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Flashman
Comment: This is pure Colonel Lang. I can see him smiling as he writes this for our enjoyment. I only updated the photo and the link to Art Buchwald’s full article.
As everyone is aware, thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before. Right now a Caravan coming from Mexico, composed of thousands of people, seems to be unstoppable in its quest to come through our currently Open Border. On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders. This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country! Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!
I have had many talks with China about the massive amounts of drugs, in particular Fentanyl, being sent into the United States – But to no avail. Representatives of China told me that they would institute their maximum penalty, that of death, for any drug dealers taught doing this but, unfortunately, they never followed through, and drugs are pouring into our Country, mostly through Mexico, at levels never seen before. Until such time as they stop, we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Comment: This is what Trump said last night on his Truth Social. He seems hell bent on using tariffs as his “go to” solution. But perhaps he’s just prudently testing the waters to see what kind of reaction this would draw. Now he can hear all the pros and cons well before he can sign off on his executive orders. Maybe he hopes Mexico will begin actions against fentanyl and migrants in hopes of avoiding the imposition of these tariffs. That would be quite clever if it worked. It might work under AMLO. He was an old school, “give and take” politician. But Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo is a different breed, “a stern leftist ideologue trained in radical student protest movements, and appears less willing to pacify or mollify Trump.” She has already suggested retaliatory tariffs. Canada, on the other hand, would be just flat screwed. I don’t know what Trudeau could do to stave off Trump’s tariffs. For China, this is all too familiar. If Trump wants a trade war, Xi will give him one.
I can’t fault Trump’s goals in suggesting these tariffs. Stopping the flow of drugs and migrants is a reasonable, and even laudable goal. His solution is as simple as standing in a bunker and pulling the pin on a grenade while daring his adversaries to pull the pins on their grenades. There’s no finesse involved. Who else is in that bunker? A lot of American businesses and consumers. Trump still doesn’t realize that tariffs are not a tax on foreigners, it’s a tax on Americans. Tariffs can be a useful tool to promote American manufacturing and other businesses over foreign competition if used strategically and with a plan for those American businesses in place. I doubt this “bull in a china shop” approach to tariffs will produce the desired results.
TTG
In the 1980s, I spent weeks at a time covering Opec meetings in fancy hotels in Geneva and Vienna at which ministers — including the then-famed Zaki Yamani of Saudi Arabia and the immediate post-revolutionary Iranians — debated how to share out the burden of cutting production to accommodate falling oil demand. It was hard, and Opec almost disintegrated more than once. But there was one given in the equation that made it all work: Oil use would start growing again at some point. The fall in oil demand that resulted from the huge price hikes of the 1970s would only be temporary.
Now, with the climate crisis, that given is no more. World oil demand doesn’t have much growth left. Another 2%-3% maybe, spread over three to four years. Or maybe less, with “peak demand” arriving as soon as next year. While that doesn’t mean oil use is about to disappear, it does mean the amount of oil humanity is using will soon start falling rather than rising — permanently. For Opec and for oil companies, that’s a devastating change in the way the world works. But for the climate and for human and other species’ survival, it’s great news. It’s even better because coal and natural gas use are about to go into reverse too, thanks to the rapid spread of renewable energy with battery backup. Together, it means carbon emissions should also start declining this year or next.
So why aren’t climate activists cheering loudly?
Peak oil demand may not be getting much press, but the data-keepers know it’s coming. The world’s foremost energy statistics and forecasting entity, the International Energy Agency (IEA), expects peak demand for all three fossil fuels and for CO2 emissions to arrive before 2030. In its latest review of prospects for the industry, Oil 2024, the IEA sees room for only an incremental 3.2 million barrels per day before demand hits its forever annual average high of just over 100 million b/d.
With the exception of Opec, other energy forecasters mostly agree about peak oil and coal. There’s less consensus on natural gas, but even those who’re bullish on gas predict peak CO2 emissions soon. Some, myself included, see these forecasts as conservative, with peak oil demand in China likely this year or next and the rest of the world close behind. BP, the Western oil company best known for its global energy forecasting, just this week gave 2025 as the likely year for peak oil demand.
In contrast, Opec gamely insists there will be more growth for longer in oil consumption. But its position lost credibility in January, when Saudi Aramco, the state oil company of Opec’s leading member, jettisoned plans to expand its own production capacity. The Saudis have already cut production by roughly 25% as part of Opec’s price-support efforts, and rather than spend a lot of money on still more capacity they won’t use, they want to spend more on diversifying their economy away from oil. It isn’t working very well, but at least they’re trying.
Most of the growth in oil production this decade has been in the US, up by around 6 million b/d to over 13 million b/d. The reason global oil demand is about to fall is, in a word, China. In recent years, China has accounted for as much as half of all global oil demand growth, and that growth is faltering. In fact, in both April and May, it stopped altogether: China used less oil in those months than it did a year earlier. At a time when the West is on an anti-China binge, driven by politicians left, right, and center, perhaps this is why the reactions have been so muted.
Reasons for China’s slowdown aren’t hard to find. Instead of growing its economy at 7% or more per year and making many of the world’s most energy-intensive products and structures, China is struggling with an intractable crisis in a housing sector that once gobbled up fossil fuel-intensive steel and concrete. Its energy-intensive manufacturing sector has stalled amid a trade war with the US and others. And it is registering huge growth in electric vehicle (EV) sales — not just cars, but also vans and large buses and trucks.
Transportation accounts for almost half of oil use in China, as it does worldwide. The electrification of road transport is what will pull oil demand into retreat. Gasoline use has already largely leveled off in Europe and the US, but it isn’t dropping quickly given low adoption of EVs and the shift to ever-larger gasoline vehicles in the US. China is what matters at this stage in the energy transition.
Beijing will also likely lead coal demand into reverse. While China has continued building coal-fired power plants, the lightning pace of its solar construction ensures much of that coal capacity will see little if any use. Yale Environment360 summed the situation up recently: “In 2022, China installed roughly as much solar photovoltaic capacity as the rest of the world combined, then went on in 2023 to double new solar installations, increase new wind capacity by 66%, and almost quadruple additions of energy storage.” Beijing has nominated electric vehicles (EVs), batteries, and solar generation as its “New Trio” of strategic growth industries. If Washington continues to not only block solar imports to the US itself but also push other countries into doing likewise, China won’t stop developing these strategic industries. It will sell more solar, even cheaper, at home and to countries that remain open to this climate bonanza.
The IEA reckons that the most likely result of flattening oil demand in the face of capacity growth will be a collapse in oil prices. The agency now forecasts a “staggering” 8 million b/d overhang of excess oil production capacity by 2030. Opec, with help from Russia and a few others, is already holding nearly 6 million b/d of oil off the market in a so-far impressively successful effort to stabilize oil markets. However, they expect to eventually gradually start using that capacity again as demand grows.
If that doesn’t happen, if oil demand instead levels off or starts to fall within the next year or two, as now seems likely, Saudi Arabia’s and other Opec members’ tolerance for producing less than they’re capable of could run out. It’s happened before. When Opec starts pushing more oil onto the market than buyers want, prices collapse.
https://medium.com/the-new-climate/peak-oil-demand-is-coming-soon-087e4ce01988
Comment: This is quite a change from the talk some years ago about peak oil. Even here, at one time, we argued whether the world would run out of accessible oil and gas or whether peak oil was just a myth. There’s plenty of argument whether peak oil demand will happen in the next year or two or sometime in the 2050s or beyond.
So what does this mean for the world and the incoming Trump administration? Sarah Miller offers an answer of what this may mean for the world in the rest of her Medium article, but doesn’t address what this may mean to Trump’s vow to create a new world energy order. Will his drive to produce far more American oil and gas drive prices lower? Will he coerce refineries to retool and use exclusively US oil? Is that what US producers want? Or does he intend to supplant traditional world energy suppliers like the Gulf countries and Russia? There’s talk on both sides of the Atlantic that US oil and gas can displace other suppliers of energy to Europe, including Russia.
None of this frightens me. I don’t see it as crazy talk. I do believe world energy markets will temper and shape his eventual decisions. I’d actually be pleased if he succeeds in this endeavor. Am I worried about the environment? Sure, but I don’t see a slowdown in the adoption of renewable energy, including nuclear power. All that continues to get cheaper and more efficient. What say you?
TTG
Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) against Dnipro, east Ukraine on the morning of Nov. 21, Kyiv’s Air Force reported. If confirmed, it would be the first time the Kremlin has used such a weapon in an attack on Ukraine.
In the early hours of Nov. 21, a country-wide air raid alert sounded due to the threat of ballistic missiles, and later, the launch of several Russian Tu-95MS bomber aircraft. According to Ukraine’s Air Force, the attack targeted the city of Dnipro using a number of different missile types. “In particular, an intercontinental ballistic missile was launched from the Astrakhan region of the Russian Federation, an Kh-47M2 ‘Kinzhal’ aeroballistic missile from a MiG-31K fighter jet was launched from the Tambov region, and seven Kh-101 cruise missiles were fired from Tu-95MS strategic bombers,” the report said. The report did not specify what type of ICBM was launched. Astrakhan Oblast is located in southern Russia, over 700 kilometers (435 miles) east of Dnipro. The region borders Kazakhstan, Russia’s Kalmykia Republic, Volgograd Oblast, and the Caspian Sea.
An industrial enterprise was damaged, and two fires broke out in the city, Governor Serhii Lysak said. A rehabilitation center for people with disabilities was damaged in the attack, Mayor Borys Filatov said. At least two people are reported to have been injured. Ukraine’s Air Force said six of the Kh-101 missiles were reportedly shot down, but did not say if the reported ICBM had caused any of the damage in Dnipro.
Russia regularly uses close, and short range ballistic missiles in aerial attacks against Ukraine, but ICBMs are far larger, can be equipped with nuclear payloads, and are designed to hit targets at far longer ranges. Ballistic missiles are rocket-powered and are launched high into the atmosphere before arcing back down onto their target. They’re only guided during the initial stages of launch, so they can be less accurate than cruise missiles, but have the advantage of reaching incredibly high speeds — sometimes more than 3,200 kilometers per hour — as they approach their targets. Crucially, ballistic missiles also have a very long range — anything from around 1,000 kilometers, up to over 5,000 kilometers, in the case of ICBMs. Until now, Russia has used several models of shorter-range ballistic missiles, including the Iskander and the Kinzhal. Due to their high speed, only certain air defense systems are capable of shooting them down, the U.S.-made Patriot system being one of them.
This has yet to be confirmed, but on Nov. 20 Ukrainian media reported that Russia was preparing to test, or launch, an RS-26 Rubezh medium-range ICBM. The Rubezh is reported to have a range of up to 6,000 kilometers, can carry four warheads each with an estimated payload of 0.3 megatons.
If confirmed, it would mean the launch had “virtually no military value,” Fabian Hoffmann, a defense expert and doctoral research fellow at the University of Oslo, told the Kyiv Independent. He points out that Russia is not known to possess a non-nuclear warhead for the Rubezh, meaning it’s likely it carried a “weight simulator, instead of a warhead.” Hoffman adds that the Rubezh is equipped with a MIRV payload, which stands for Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicles. Purported footage of the attack shows multiple projectiles hitting the ground, but without the large explosions normally associated with conventional missiles or payloads. “So this strike is not for military value, this is purely, purely for political purposes,” he added.
What are those political purposes? The attack came in the wake of what appeared to be Ukraine’s first successful strike of a military target inside Russia using the U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles. After depicting such a move as crossing another “red line” the Kremlin had drawn, Russian President Vladimir Putin said his country would respond. “They probably considered testing a nuclear warhead, which was also rumored to happen soon, but decided that’s too intense, and that could invite too much backlash, especially from partners, such as China and India,” Hoffman said. “And then they probably thought that this is the next best option, because it sends a clear signal to the West, while potentially not antagonizing critical international partners.” Hoffman added he expects this was a one-off rather than a new strategy from the Kremlin, given he estimates the cost of one Rubezh to be north of $10 million, making continued attacks highly cost-ineffective.
What has Kyiv, Moscow said? As well as the original Air Force statement, in the early afternoon of Nov. 21, President Volodymyr Zelensky said an examination was taking place to determine the exact type of missile, but “all characteristics” of the strike had “intercontinental ballistic capabilities.” “We can see that Putin is using Ukraine as a training ground,” he added.
Russia conversely, has said very little about the attack. When asked if Moscow had fired an ICBM, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters he had “nothing to say on this topic.” In a video clip widely shared in the media, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova received a phone call during a press conference apparently asking her not to comment on reports about “ballistic missile strikes.” Zakharova later claimed she was merely asking “experts whether this was our topic,” and the “answer came during the briefing: the Foreign Ministry does not comment. There is no conspiracy.”
What has the international community said? Russia using an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) against Ukraine would be a “clear escalation” by Moscow, EU foreign affairs spokesperson Peter Stano told reporters on Nov. 21. “While we’re assessing the full facts, it’s obvious that such (an) attack would mark yet another clear escalation from the side of (Russian President Vladimir) Putin,” Stano said, according to AFP. Elsewhere, the BBC reported that three anonymous Western officials has said the attack was carried out using ballistic missiles, rather than ICBMs.
How can Ukraine intercept intercontinental ballistic missiles? Ukraine’s U.S.-supplied Patriots have been effective at intercepting the ballistic missiles launched by Russia to date, but according to Defense Express, they are not currently optimized to intercept ICBMs. If Russia began to regularly launch ICBMs, Ukraine’s air defenses would need to be bolstered by more advanced air defense systems like the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense), the outlet reported.
Comment: Sure the “Kyiv Independent” is far from an uninterested party, but the report tracks with what’s being reported elsewhere. Of course it was a political signal. The use of a MIRVed ballistic missile with no warheads, just weight simulators, had no real military effect. The Kremlin could have used a long range catapult launching big rocks for a similar military effect. But it was a signal that Moscow was ready to escalate. Just to retain some semblance of face, they had to do something. As an indication that they did not go bat shit crazy, it appears that they warned the US that they would be launching an ICBM before doing so. They still don’t want to cross the nuclear threshold.
Whether the RS-26 Rubezh is a true ICBM or an intermediate range ballistic missile is immaterial. It was a MIRVed ballistic missile that nothing in the current Ukrainian arsenal can stop. What can stop them? The Aegis Ashore installations in Poland and Romania are too far west to be within range. We could move a THAAD battery or the Army’s new Typhon Weapon System into Ukraine, but that would be putting US troops into Ukraine. And we don’t have many of those systems. The AIM-174B launched from an F/A-18 Hornet is another impractical solution. Whether any of these solutions would even be seriously considered depends on how often Russia plans on launching these MIRVed ballistic missiles at Ukraine and whether Russia can develop a conventional warhead for these missiles.
TTG
President Joe Biden has authorized the provision of antipersonnel land mines to Ukraine, a step that will bolster Kyiv’s defenses against advancing Russian troops but has drawn criticism from arms control groups. The move comes in the wake of the White House’s recent authorization allowing Ukraine to use a powerful missile system to strike inside Russia — part of a sweep of urgentactions that the lame-duck Biden administrationis taking to help Kyiv’s faltering war effort.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that Moscow will retaliate for the latest missile strikes from the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, which has a range of about 190 miles. Shipping antipersonnel land mines to Ukraine is also potentially controversial, though among a different group: More than 160 countries have signed an international treaty banning their use, noting that the indiscriminate weapons can cause enduring harm to civilians. But Kyiv has sought them since Russia invaded nearly three years ago, and the Kremlin’s forces have deployed antipersonnel land mines liberally on the front lines, impeding Ukraine’s progress as it seeks to reclaim its own territory.
The Biden administration is deeply concerned about Russia’s assaultsagainst Ukraine’s front lines in recent weeks and sees a pressing need to blunt the advance, U.S. officials said. “They have a need for things that can help slow down that effort on the part of the of the Russians,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters on Wednesday during a visit to Laos. Ukrainian forces are fabricating their own mines, he said, and the U.S. mines being provided “would self-activate, self-detonate and that makes it…far more safer eventually than the things that they are creating on their own.”
Austin and other U.S. officials did not say what type of mines are being provided. One official described them as “nonpersistent,” meaning that the mines self-destruct or lose battery charge to render them inactive within days or weeks. The official said that Ukrainian policymakers had committed to not deploying the mines in densely populated areas. Arms control experts said that even nonpersistent mines pose a safety hazard. The official and three others spoke about the decision on the condition of anonymity to candidly discuss sensitive internal White House deliberations. “Russia is attacking Ukrainian lines in the east with waves of troops, regardless of the casualties that they’re suffering,” one of the officials said. “So the Ukrainians are obviously taking losses, and more towns and cities are at risk of falling. These mines were made specifically to combat exactly this. When they’re used in concert with the other munitions that we already are providing Ukraine, the intent is that they will contribute to a more effective defense,” the official said.
Biden had been reluctant to supply Ukraine with the mines in the face of concerns within his own administration and from a wide range of anti-mine advocates who say the risk to civilians is unacceptably high. But Russia’s battlefield progress in recent months has forced the White House to findfresh ways to help Kyiv, especially following the victory of President-elect Donald Trump, who has vowed to steer the conflict toward a swift conclusion. The United States has provided Ukraine with Claymores, a different type of antipersonnel mine, which are set above ground and triggered by an operator, making them permissible under mine ban conventions if used properly.
Use of the new mines would be limited to Ukrainian territory, with an expected focus on eastern Ukraine, one of the officials said. Russian forces have made significant advances in the Donetsk region and in recent months have gained territory at the fastest rate since 2022. Ukrainian troops have struggled to build strong defensive lines in the face of relentless drone sorties and small assault teams. Land mines could help them shore up their defenses by slowing enemy troops and channeling them to areas where they can be targeted with artillery and rockets.
Neither Russia nor the United States is one of the 164 parties to the Ottawa Convention, also known as the Mine Ban Treaty, that prohibits the deployment and transfer of antipersonnel land mines. Biden in 2022 revived an Obama-era policy that banned the transfer and use of U.S. antipersonnel land mines outside the Korean Peninsula.
One Ukrainian official welcomed any policy change despite the potential risks that would come with widespread deployment of the weapons. “Russia uses them anyway,” the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the subject’s sensitivity.
But some human rights campaigners said that the U.S. decision to provide antipersonnel land mines to Ukraine — a signatory to the Mine Ban Treaty — is a black mark against Washington. “It’s a shocking and devastating development,” said Mary Wareham, deputy director of the crisis, conflict and arms divisionat Human Rights Watch, the advocacy group, who said that even nonpersistent mines hold risks for civilians, requirecomplicated cleanup efforts and are not always reliably deactivated.
The Trump administration in 2020 had reversed the Obama-era policy, pointing to the need for strategic use of mines to counter adversaries like Russia and China, and drawing strong condemnation from arms control advocates.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/11/19/biden-landmines-ukraine-russia
Comment: I know about the toe poppers, bouncing Bettys and the ever present claymores. They were always an accepted part of the modern battlefield. But I’m not at all familiar with these battery-powered non-persistent antipersonnel mines. Damned good idea, though. I wonder if this will include artillery scatterable antipersonnel mines. I thought I remember those mines were electrically fused and, therefore, non-persistent.
As Russian assault tactics changed, Ukrainian defensive tactics must change. This is a good step in that direction. Too bad Ukrainian organization and command style can’t change that easily. I recently read a disconcerting, but accurate line that a small soviet army cannot defeat a large soviet army. Our efforts have had success in training tactical units in the Western way of war, but much less success in breaking old habits among the senior Ukrainian officers.
TTG
SpaceX is targeting Tuesday afternoon (Nov. 19) for the launch of its sixth Starship flight test. The upcoming test flight is expected to lift off on Nov. 19 during a 30-minute window that opens at 5 p.m. EST (2200 GMT). The Starship megarocket, which consists of two fully reusable elements — a huge first stage called Super Heavy and an upper-stage spacecraft known as Starship, or simply “Ship” — will launch from the company’s Starbase facility near Boca Chica Beach in South Texas. You’ll be able to watch the launch live on Space.com, courtesy of a SpaceX simulcast, beginning 30 minutes before liftoff. Follow our Starship live updates for more mission milestones. “The next Starship flight test aims to expand the envelope on ship and booster capabilities and get closer to bringing reuse of the entire system online,” SpaceX officials said in a statement announcing the sixth test flight.
Starship Flight 6 follows a successful fifth test flight on Oct. 13, during which the Super Heavy booster was captured using giant metal “chopstick” arms upon its return to Starbase, while the upper stage continued in flight before completing a controlled entry and landing maneuver over the Indian Ocean. “The success of the first catch attempt demonstrated the design feasibility while providing valuable data to continue improving hardware and software performance,” SpaceX said in the statement.
If all goes according to plan, the booster will once again demonstrate a catch landing back at Starbase during Flight 6, which will take place about seven minutes after liftoff. Otherwise, Super Heavy will default to a controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile, after separating from the booster, Ship will fly the same suborbital trajectory as it did on Flight 5. This time, however, the spacecraft will attempt an in-space burn of one of its six Raptor engines, testing its deorbit burn capabilities. Starship will also perform a series of heatshield experiments and maneuvering changes for reentry — including flying at a higher angle during the final phase of descent — before splashing down in the Indian Ocean about 65 minutes post-launch. The window for Tuesday’s test flight is purposefully scheduled for late afternoon, allowing for better observations of reentry during daylight, according to SpaceX.
Comment: The booster capture is plenty exciting, but I’m really looking forward to a Starship safely landing (on land) after an orbital flight. A booster failed landing just costs money, but a Starship failed landing would cost lives. I bet a Starship landing is in the works for next year.
BTW, I see Trump is scheduled to be Elon’s guest at his Starbase facility in Boca Chica tomorrow. Ought to be quite the spectacle for the father of Space Force to be there.
TTG
US officials say President Biden has given the green light for Ukraine to use long range missiles supplied by Washington to strike deep inside Russia. Washington had previously refused to allow such strikes with US-made ATACMS missiles because it feared they would escalate the war. The major policy reversal comes two months before President Joe Biden hands over power to Donald Trump, whose election has raised fears over the future of US support for Kyiv.
Why has the US allowed Ukraine to use long-range missiles inside Russia? Ukraine has been using ATACMS on Russian targets in occupied Ukrainian territory for more than a year. American munitions and hardware are already being used inside Russia – in the Kursk border region, according to local reports. But the US has never allowed Kyiv to use the ATACMS inside Russia – until now. Ukraine had argued that not being allowed to use such weapons inside Russia was like being asked to fight with one hand tied behind its back. The change in policy reportedly comes in response to the recent arrival of North Korean troops to support Russia in the Kursk region, where Ukraine has occupied territory since August.
Also, Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House is raising fears over the future of US support for Ukraine, and President Biden is apparently keen to do all he can to help in the little time he has left in office. Strengthening Ukraine’s hand militarily – so the thinking goes – could grant Ukraine leverage in any peace talks that may lie ahead. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has not yet confirmed the move. But he said on Sunday: “Strikes are not made with words … The missiles will speak for themselves.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2nrlq1840o
Comment: About freakin’ time. Putin is still claiming this means WWIII is upon us. But there’s a patter with Putin’s history of such proclamations. Illia Ponomarenko explains it well:
Some people seem to just have the attention span of a goldfish. “WW3” was supposed to inevitably begin like at least two dozen times since 2022, with every single weapon type that Ukraine managed to beg its way to. Javelins and NLAWs (“WW3!”), artillery pieces (“WW3”), HIMARS (“WW3!!!”), air defenses (“WW3!”), as well as tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, radars, missiles, drones, jets, strikes on Russian military targets in mainland Ukraine (“WW3!!!”), on Russian-occupied “WW3!!!”, strikes in near-borderline areas (absolutely exactly WW3!!), Russian oil refineries (“oh my god”), radars (“AAAAAA!!!”), and now also the entire Kursk region, namely the North Korean units (“10000% WW3 run you fools”).
And then, every single time, “WW3” slipped out of their mind completely until the next time, again and again. And no one gives a damn about the fact that something may be wrong with this picture.
I don’t see the freeing of ATACMS strikes leading to a WWIII situation unless these strikes somehow caused the Russian Army to absolutely collapse. If the Russian Army just walked away or, God forbid, start marching on Moscow, Putin could very well resort to nuclear weapons to regain control of the situation. And no thinking person really wants that. I don’t even think Zelenskiy wants to put Putin in that position. He just wants the Russians to stop slaughtering his fellow Ukrainians and the Russian Army to leave Ukraine.
In my opinion, Biden should not have announced this decision from deep within the Amazon rain forest. He should have quietly passed the decision to Kyiv, London and Paris and let the first long range ATACMS strike serve as the announcement to Moscow and the rest of the world.
TTG
