We maintain and continue this committee of correspondence in memory of our founder and mentor, Colonel W. Patrick Lang. The image to the right is Marcus, a character from William S. Burroughs’s “The Coming of the Purple Better One.” Colonel Lang would refer to Marcus sometimes in clever jest, sometimes in biting social commentary and sometimes simply because he liked Marcus. May everyone who corresponds here do so in a similar spirit.
Essential Writings on History, War, Religion and Strategy
From the Introduction:
“In the aftermath of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, Col. Lang created his own blog which to this day still serves as a committee of correspondence for a large network of former military and intelligence officers, diplomats, and scholars of international affairs.
Since its launch in 2005, the Turcopolier website has had over 40 million unique visits.
Since leaving the government, he has also authored five books, including a Civil War espionage trilogy, a memoir of his years in government service, and a primer on human intelligence.
This present volume—his sixth book—is an anthology of some of his most important writings. The content speaks for itself. So have at it.”
CHISINAU, Oct 21 (Reuters) – President Maia Sandu said on Monday Moldovans had won a “first battle in a difficult fight” for their future, a day after a slim majority of 50.46% backed EU accession in a referendum that was clouded by allegations of Russia-backed meddling.
The knife-edge finish was a shock for supporters of Sandu, who had hoped the vote would deliver a firm message of intent to bring the ex-Soviet agricultural economy into the European Union by 2030 and leave Moscow’s orbit for good. “The people of Moldova have spoken: Our EU future will now be anchored in the constitution. We fought fairly in an unfair fight — and we won,” Sandu wrote on X. The result means a clause will be added to the constitution defining EU accession as a goal. Moldova began the long process of formal accession talks in June.
In a presidential election held alongside the referendum, Sandu won 42.45%, short of the 50% needed to win outright and paving the way for a Nov. 3 runoff against former prosecutor-general Alexandr Stoianoglo, who won 25.98%.
Earlier, Sandu, 52, had told Moldovans there was “clear evidence” that criminal groups backed by “foreign forces hostile to our national interests” had aimed to buy off 300,000 votes. “Criminal groups… have attacked our country with tens of millions of euros, lies and propaganda, using the most disgraceful means to keep our citizens and our nation trapped in uncertainty and instability,” she said. In the run-up to the vote, authorities said there had been Moscow-backed meddling attempts spearheaded by fugitive tycoon Ilan Shor, including an effort to bribe 130,000 people to vote “no” and support a specific candidate at the election. Shor denies wrongdoing.
The Kremlin, which denies interfering, denounced the votes in Moldova as “unfree”, casting doubt on what it said was a “hard-to-explain” increase in votes in favour of Sandu and the EU, and challenging her to “present evidence” of meddling. The EU defended Sandu and said Moldova had faced “unprecedented intimidation and foreign interference by Russia and its proxies ahead of this vote”.
Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, welcomed the outcome of the referendum in a post on X: “In the face of Russia’s hybrid tactics, Moldova shows that it is independent, it is strong and it wants a European future!” The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe said the voting campaigns had been marred by foreign interference and active disinformation efforts.
White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said Russia had been actively working to undermine Moldova’s election and its European integration. “Russia did not succeed, as the results demonstrate. Moldovan democracy is strong,” Kirby said, but added that he expected Moscow to try to influence the runoff election.
The future of the southeast European nation of under 3 million has been in the spotlight since Russia’s invasion of neighbouring Ukraine at a time of mounting confrontation between Moscow and the West. Ties with Moscow have deteriorated as Sandu condemned the invasion and diversified energy supplies away from Russia.
Moldova’s twin votes came ahead of next Saturday’s closely contested parliamentary election in Georgia, another former Soviet republic that aspires to join the EU, but which Russia sees as part of its historical sphere of influence. In a speech on Monday, Sandu said “there is still one more battle to fight”, urging Moldovans to back her in the runoff for the presidency.
Stoianoglo, who is backed by the traditionally pro-Russian Party of Socialists, has said that, if elected, he will build a “balanced” foreign policy involving ties with the EU, the United States, Russia and China. He boycotted Sunday’s referendum, calling it a ruse to boost Sandu’s re-election bid. He challenged Sandu to a televised debate ahead of the runoff.
Comment: The referendum vote was a close run thing. through most of the day, it looked like it was going to be defeated. The last votes counted were the diaspora votes from those who left Moldova for EU countries and Canada. Twenty to twenty five percent of Moldovans currently live outside of Moldova. Those diaspora votes turned the tide and narrowly approved the referendum to join the EU.
There are areas of Moldova that still strongly identify with the Soviet Union and Russia. That won’t change quickly, if at all. A good explanation of the politics of Moldova are in the linked article from the “New Eastern Europe” magazine. The article is from last June, but it’s definitely worth a read.
What I take from all this is that the Kremlin will not be satisfied with taking Ukraine’s western oblasts. That’s just a beginning. They don’t want any more of the old Soviet Union fleeing the Kremlin nest and joining the rest of Europe.
TTG
CNN — The US is investigating a leak of highly classified US intelligence about Israel’s plans for retaliation against Iran, according to three people familiar with the matter. One of the people familiar confirmed the documents’ authenticity. The leak is “deeply concerning,” a US official told CNN.
The documents, dated October 15 and 16, began circulating online Friday after being posted on Telegram by an account called “Middle East Spectator.” They are marked top secret and have markings indicating they are meant to be seen only by the US and its “Five Eyes” allies — Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. They describe preparations Israel appears to be making for a strike against Iran. One of the documents, which says it was compiled by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, says the plans involve Israel moving munitions around.
Another document says it is sourced to the National Security Agency and outlines Israeli air force exercises involving air-to-surface missiles, also believed to be in preparation for a strike on Iran. CNN is not quoting directly from or showing the documents.
A US official said the investigation is examining who had access to the alleged Pentagon document. Any such leak would automatically trigger an investigation by the FBI alongside the Pentagon and US intelligence agencies. The FBI declined to comment.
The leak comes at an extremely sensitive moment in US-Israeli relations and is bound to anger the Israelis, who have been preparing to strike Iran in response to Iran’s missile barrage on October 1. One of the documents also suggests something that Israel has always declined to confirm publicly: that the country has nuclear weapons. The document says the US has not seen any indications that Israel plans to use a nuclear weapon against Iran. “If it is true that Israeli tactical plans to respond to Iran’s attack on October 1 have been leaked, it is a serious breach,” said Mick Mulroy, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East and a retired CIA officer. Mulroy added that “the future coordination between the US and Israel could be challenged as well. Trust is a key component in the relationship, and depending on how this was leaked that trust could be eroded.”
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/19/politics/us-israel-iran-intelligence-documents/index.html
Comment: With alleged leaks like this there is little incentive for Israel to share any planning details with the US. That is unless Israel needs any kind of assistance from the US in its upcoming strike on Iran. What I read about the leaked documents, no real secrets were revealed. Israel is practicing all those things necessary to conduct an air attack on Iran. Well, duh. Of course they are. And the documents could still be fakes rather than leaked actual documents.
The CNN article leaves some doubt that these documents are authentic, but the NDTV article linked below makes the assumption that these leaked documents are genuine. I don’t know if the USG has confirmed that yet. Given the general nature of information released, some lower level employee with anti-Israeli sentiments could easily have access to such documents. On the other hand, a leak story manufactured by Iran would be a great way to sow distrust between Israel and the US, as well as within USI. I’m sure USI knows if these are real leaked documents or not by now. The investigation continues.
Now it also makes perfect sense that Kyiv did not share plans for their Kursk operation with the US. In line with this administrations policy of escalation management, I’m sure we would have deliberately leaked those plans in order to prevent the operation.
TTG
Background
On March 23, 2020, the U.S. Marine Corps (USMC) announced a major force design initiative planned to occur over the next 10 years referred to as “Force Design 2030.” As part of this initiative, the Marine Corps intends to redesign forces to place a stronger emphasis on naval expeditionary warfare and to better align with the National Defense Strategy, in particular, the strategy’s focus on strategic competition with China and Russia. As part of this redesign, the Marines plan to establish at least three Marine Littoral Regiments (MLRs) organized, trained, and equipped to accomplish a number of missions within contested maritime spaces.
MLR Missions According to the Marines, the MLR is to be capable of the following missions:
• Conduct Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations (EABO), a form of expeditionary warfare involving the employment of naval expeditionary forces with low electronic and physical signatures, which are relatively easy to maintain/sustain. These forces are to be arrayed in a series of austere, temporary locations ashore within a contested or potentially contested maritime area to conduct sea denial, support, sea control, and fleet sustainment operations.
• Conduct strike operations with a variety of systems.
• Coordinate air and missile defense operations.
• Support maritime domain awareness.
• Support naval surface warfare operations.
• Support information operations.
The MLR’s Operational Environment
The Commandant of the Marine Corps’ May 2022 Force Design 2030 Annual Update states:
The security environment is characterized by proliferation of sophisticated sensors and precision weapons coupled with growing strategic competition. Potential adversaries employ systems and tactics to hold the fleet and joint force at arm’s length, allowing them to employ a strategy that uses contested areas as a shield behind which they can apply a range of coercive measures against our allies and partners. Operating in this environment, MLRs are envisioned to serve as what the Marines call a “Stand-In Force (SIF),” primarily to “help the fleet and joint force win the reconnaissance and counter reconnaissance battle within a contested area at the leading edge of a maritime defense in-depth.”
MLR Employment
According to a May 25, 2022 Marine Corps Association article “Missions, MAGTFs, Force Design & Change,” by Colonel Michael R. Kennedy, USMC (Retired), MLRs are intended to Deploy to islands, coastlines, and observation posts along chokepoints where their networked sensors and weapons can surveil the air and surface (and, potentially subsurface) waterways. The timing of their insertion is implied to be in the “competition” phase before hostilities start. The duration of their stay is less clear, and potentially challenging as resupply over long distances … will be challenging.… Host nation support (if it exists) will be critical as will prepositioned supplies and even “foraging. The MLR’s purpose will be to observe and prevent any “grey zone” activities that lead to fait accompli actions. In some cases, it is presumed that they may be the “trigger” that shifts the status from competition to conflict if any premature hostile acts are directed towards their positions.
Proposed MLR Organizational Structure
Marine Corps leadership has stated it requires further analysis and experimentation to refine MLR organizational structure. As currently envisioned, the MLR is planned to consist of approximately 1,800 to 2,000 Sailors and Marines and composed of four elements:
• A Command Element.
• A Littoral Combat Team consisting of an infantry battalion and an anti-ship missile battery. The Littoral Combat Team is to provide the basis for multiple platoon reinforced-sized expeditionary advanced base sites capable of conducting a variety of missions.
• A Littoral Anti-Air Battalion designed to conduct air defense, air surveillance and early warning, air control, and forward rearming and refueling operations.
• A Combat Logistics Battalion designed to resupply expeditionary advanced base sites, manage cache sites, and connect with higher-level logistics providers. The Combat Logistics Battalion is also to provide limited purchasing authority, medical support, ammunition and fuel distribution, and field maintenance.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12200/5
Comment: This is part of a Congressional Research Service (CRS) report on the Marine Littoral Regiment (MLR). The report does a good job of describing the what and why of the MLR. It goes on to describe some of the main items of equipment being developed for this new Marine unit.
I’ve been hearing about this for a few years. The dropping of the Marine tank battalions was a well covered aspect of this reorientation of the Marine Corps from trying to be a mini-US Army to returning to its Naval roots. A recent Honolulu Star-Advertiser article on the 3rd Littoral Regiment, based in Kaneohe, rekindled my interest in where the MLR concept stands today.
It’s a realization that any conflict with China will be a naval war dominated by missiles and now drones. It’s a callback to the defense of Wake Island in WWII where the Marine shore batteries managed to sink a Japanese destroyer. The MLR appears to be largely a reconnaissance and target acquisition force, but it also has a potent anti-ship weapon in the NMESIS (Navy-Marine Corps Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System). It reminds me of Ukraine’s Neptune coastal defense missile system.
Of course the Marine Corps is not the only service reorganizing and reorienting towards a conflict in the Pacific. The Army’s 1st Multi-Domain Task Force (MDTF), based in Joint Base Lewis-McChord is also oriented towards the Pacific as is the 3rd MDTF at Schofield Barracks in Hawaii. The 25th Infantry Division is also now organized and oriented towards littoral operations. The Army is even acquiring a new fleet of medium and heavy landing craft, not to be confused with the Marine Corps’ new Navy Medium Landing Ship, something smaller than the old LSTs and much smaller and cheaper than the current LHAs and LHDs.
It will be interesting, or perhaps frightening is a more descriptive term, to watch the race between China and the US in reorganizing and building towards forces prepared to square off in the Pacific.
TTG
https://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/R46374.pdf (Navy Medium Landing Ship)
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/marine-littoral-regiment-squad-size-fire-teams
The United States has long been at the forefront of technological innovation, but one key sector where the U.S. lags significantly behind is in the drone industry. Currently, China’s DJI dominates the consumer and professional drone market, owning as much as 80% of the global market share. This overwhelming dominance poses not just a competitive challenge but also a national security risk. The U.S. must prioritize the establishment of a domestic drone industry to secure technological autonomy and protect sensitive data. However, this won’t be possible without a well-thought-out strategy that addresses the supply chain and market leadership issues. Here’s how the U.S. can jump-start its domestic drone industry.
1. You Can’t iterate faster than China without a DJI Competitor
DJI’s market leadership is built on its ability to rapidly iterate its technology, bringing new models and innovations to market faster than its competitors. This agility allows DJI to consistently maintain its competitive edge while collecting massive amounts of data, which is then used to improve future products. More concerningly, this drone data, collected over U.S. soil by DJI drones, is accessible by Chinese authorities, creating significant security vulnerabilities.
Without a home-grown competitor to DJI, the U.S. will always be playing catch-up. American companies struggle to iterate at the same pace due to limitations in both supply chain efficiency and production cost. Even firms like Skydio and other U.S.-based drone startups cannot scale quickly enough to meet market demands because they rely on key components sourced from China, limiting their independence. If the U.S. is to successfully break away from this cycle, it needs to create an environment where iteration and innovation can flourish domestically, unencumbered by supply chain constraints or external data risks.
2. You can’t build Drones without China: Fixing the Supply Chain
The uncomfortable reality is that most drones, even those designed and assembled in the U.S., rely heavily on Chinese components. China currently controls key aspects of the supply chain for microelectronics, motors, sensors, and batteries—components essential for drone manufacturing. This stranglehold over critical components not only gives China a substantial advantage in cost and production scale but also makes it incredibly difficult for American companies to compete without relying on Chinese suppliers.
To break free from this dependence, government intervention is crucial. The U.S. must incentivize the near-shoring, re-shoring, and friend-shoring of critical component manufacturing. Policies that support domestic manufacturing of microelectronics, motors, and other essential drone parts are needed. This can be done through tax breaks, research and development grants, and investment in domestic infrastructure. Moreover, collaboration with allied nations to build a supply chain that does not involve China could help diversify sourcing and reduce dependence on a single foreign power.
An additional layer of complexity lies in the labor and environmental regulations that make it difficult for the U.S. to compete with China’s low-cost production model. However, with proper investment in automation and next-generation manufacturing techniques, the U.S. could reduce costs while maintaining high-quality production standards. An aggressive push to develop U.S.-based suppliers and manufacturers would be a significant step toward breaking China’s chokehold on the drone supply chain.
3. Becoming the Market Leader: Re-shoring the Supply Chain and Outpacing DJI
The key to building out a domestic drone industry is to take over DJI’s position as the market leader. However, this cannot be accomplished without taking control of the supply chain. To do so, the U.S. must prioritize re-shoring and near-shoring, bringing critical drone component production back to U.S. soil or to trusted allies. Friend-shoring with countries like Japan, South Korea, and European allies can help diversify the supply chain and ensure that the U.S. is not vulnerable to supply disruptions.
To effectively compete with DJI, the U.S. must also foster a vibrant ecosystem of drone-related companies that can work together to innovate rapidly. This requires not only investment in existing drone startups but also collaboration between tech companies, universities, and government agencies. A public-private partnership approach, similar to what was seen in the early days of the space race, could give U.S. companies the edge they need to overtake DJI in terms of innovation, reliability, and cost-effectiveness.
Additionally, leveraging existing tech talent and capabilities in AI and machine learning would allow U.S. drone manufacturers to introduce smarter and more capable drones. This would help the U.S. surpass DJI, not just in hardware but in software and autonomous operations. However, none of this will be possible unless the U.S. establishes a stable and secure supply of drone components that are independent of Chinese influence.
Conclusion
To jump-start a domestic drone industry, the U.S. must address both the supply chain and market leadership challenges posed by DJI. This requires strategic government intervention in supply chain development, with a focus on near-shoring, friend-shoring, and re-shoring of critical drone components. Only then can the U.S. foster a competitive environment where domestic companies can iterate faster, innovate more effectively, and ultimately take over DJI’s dominant position in the consumer and professional drone market. Without such a concerted effort, the U.S. will continue to trail behind China in this vital industry.
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/china-has-the-us-drone-industry-by
Comment: This is a continuation on the subject of drones. It’s about the elephant in the room… or the panda bear in the room. DJI and China have been the world leaders in the field for as long as I can remember. Both Ukraine and Russia were using a lot of DJI drones in their war and, as far as I know, still are. Security experts in the US have bemoaned the omnipresence of DJI drones in the US, especially in police and security applications.
The author of this article, Benjamin Cook, suggests doing what’s necessary to replace DJI as the market leader. That’s a fairly tall order and will, as Cook says, require changes in rules, regulations, marketing practices and probably tariffs. He also suggests pairing with a trusted ally to accomplish the same thing. This is something we can accomplish now. The Ukrainian drone industry. The linked NPR article describes the state of the Ukrainian drone industry. It’s very well developed, but Kyiv needs foreign investment to keep it developing. And since it is such a distributed industry, it should be easier to expand the Ukrainian model to Europe and the US than trying to replicate a DJI.
TTG
https://www.npr.org/2024/10/13/nx-s1-5147284/ukraine-drones-russia-war
Ship 30 and Booster 12 lifted off at 7:25 am Central Time on Oct 13. The liftoff and ascent was flawless with all 33 engine running on Booster 12 all the way to hot-staging. Ship 30 then ignited its six engines and went on its way to the Indian Ocean.
Booster 12 then reignited the middle ring of 10 engines for its boost back burn which was just as flawless as its ascent. However Booster 12 was not done, following its boost back burn Booster 12 made its way back to the launch site. With one kilometer to go it ignited its center 13 engines for the landing burn to quickly slow down then switching to the center three.
Booster 12 then translated over to get in between the chopsticks and was successfully caught by the tower. This is a massive milestone for the Starship program and now comes the question of what SpaceX will do with Booster 12.
Ship 30 then coasted to reentry to test its new heat shield configuration. The new heat shield fared far better than Ship 29’s configuration, however there was still some burn through on at least one of the forward flaps. Despite this Ship 30 made it to flip and landing burn and a soft splashdown in the Indian ocean before exploding after tipping over captured by a buoy at the landing zone. This means that SpaceX hit the mark on Ship landing.
Overall SpaceX hit every single milestone and objective for Flight 5 and who knows what they will do for Flight 6.
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2024/10/starship-flight-5-catch
Comment: I totally missed this. Not surprised. I spent all day yesterday removing and dumping a couple of overgrown hollies from his front yard. That wore us both out and I slept in this morning. We also missed the opening game of Caps hockey season. Well, that’s life.
This launch was successful on all fronts. The super heavy booster was caught by the chopsticks on the launchpad. The improved heat shields and redesigned winglets on the Starship worked much better than the last time. It made a controlled landing in the Indian Ocean right on target before it tipped into the ocean and blew up. All in all, it was a damned fine performance.
I find it odd that there was nothing on TV, at least broadcast TV, this morning about this, not even a ten second mention. Granted Musk is making all kinds of political news lately, but this launch was a big thing. Are we getting that jaded by these launches already?
TTG
As Ukraine’s stocks of artillery shells have dwindled, its army’s reliance on drones has grown. These are able to deliver ammunition with great precision over long distances—provided they can maintain connections with GPS satellites (so they know where they are) and their operators (so they know what to do). Such communication signals can be jammed, however, and Russia’s electronic warfare, as signals scrambling is known, is fearsomely effective. With large numbers of its drones in effect blinded, Ukraine’s drone technologists have been forced to get creative.
Enter Eagle Eyes, a remarkable software package for drones. Developed by Ukraine’s special forces, it allows drones to navigate by machine sight alone, with no need for outside input. Using artificial-intelligence (ai) algorithms, the software compares live video of the terrain below with an on-board map stitched together from photographs and video previously collected by reconnaissance aircraft. This allows for drones to continue with their missions even after being jammed.
Eagle Eyes has also been trained to recognise specific ground-based targets, including tanks, troop carriers, missile launchers and attack helicopters. The software can then release bombs, or crash-dive, without a human operator’s command. “Bingo for us,” says a captain in White Eagle, a special-forces corps that is using and further developing the technology. The software has been programmed to target jamming stations as a priority, says the captain, who requested anonymity. Russia’s vaunted s-400 air-defence batteries are priority number two.
Optical navigation, as this approach to guidance is known, has a long history. An early version was incorporated in America’s Tomahawk cruise missiles, for example, first fired in anger during Operation Desert Storm in 1991. But lightweight, inexpensive optical navigation for small drones is new. In the spring of last year Eagle Eyes was being tested in combat by just three special-forces teams, each with two or three drone handlers. Today Eagle Eyes is cheap enough for kamikaze drones and is in wide use, says Valeriy Borovyk, commander of a White Eagle unit fighting in Ukraine’s south. With a range of about 60km, the system also guides fixed-wing drones that have struck energy infrastructure in Russia, he says.
Last autumn the number of Ukrainian drones with optical navigation probably numbered in the hundreds. Today the figure is closer to 10,000, says an industry hand in Odessa whose design bureau builds prototype systems for two Ukrainian manufacturers. Anton Varavin, chief technologist at a competing design bureau, Midgard Dynamics in Ternopil in western Ukraine, says optical navigation is increasingly seen as a “must have”, especially for drones with a range above 20km.
Optical navigation works best near distinctive features such as crossroads, power lines, isolated trees, big buildings and nearby bodies of water. For small drones with inexpensive optical navigation, the ideal cruising altitude is about 500 metres, says Andy Bosyi, a co-founder of MindCraft.ai, a developer of optical-navigation prototypes with workplaces at undisclosed locations in and near Lviv. That altitude is low enough for the software to work out terrain details, and yet high enough for a sufficient field of view. The height is also beyond the range of small-arms fire.
MindCraft.ai shipped its first models, appropriately dubbed NOGPS, to manufacturers in December. While cruising, the system needs to fix on at least one object per minute to avoid drifting more than 50 metres off course. That’s good enough for reconnaissance, if not precision bombing. To improve accuracy and allow night flights, MindCraft.ai is incorporating a heat-sensing infrared camera. The upgrade should be ready by the end of this year.
MindCraft.ai has also developed a NOGPS feature for what they call semi-automated autonomous targeting. Now being tested by clients, it allows drone operators to lock onto targets they spot in live video. If jamming subsequently severs the video link, the system delivers the munition without further human input. This function is valuable because jamming typically gets worse as drones approach enemy assets, says Mr Bosyi, who is also MindCraft.ai’s lead data scientist. MindCraft.ai’s clients serially manufacture NOGPS models for a unit cost of between €200 and €500 ($217-$550).
Other systems cost more. Midgard says the componentry in its designs costs its manufacturer clients roughly €1,500 per unit. Their systems augment optical navigation with inertial data from accelerometers and gyroscopes like those used in smartphones. To stay on course while cruising, Midgard’s optical system needs to find a match between a terrain feature below and one in an onboard map only every 20 minutes or so. Mr Varavin says that in ideal conditions precision is within several metres. That is comparable to GPS.
Demand for optical navigation is rising elsewhere, too. An Israeli firm called Asio reports brisk sales of an optical-navigation unit to the Israel Defence Forces and American firms. (Israel forbids exports of such technology to Ukraine.) Introduced in 2021, the roughly $20,000 system, now dubbed AeroGuardian, weighs as little as 90g, draws just five watts of power and is accurate, in good conditions, within a metre or so, says David Harel, Asio’s boss. Asio expects sales this year to exceed $10m, double the figure for 2023.
Ukraine now sees optical navigation as a capability “focal point”, says Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former chief of NATO. Ukraine’s defence ministry has provided detailed terrain maps to Atlas Aerospace, a drone manufacturer in Riga, Latvia. One way to better compare such maps with a drone’s view is with lidar techniques, which record the travel time of laser pulses bounced off the ground. As lasers reduce stealth, Atlas designed a “virtual lidar” system. This measures what founder Ivan Tolchinsky calls “optical flow”—the time it takes a pixel representing a terrain feature to transit the onboard camera’s view. Since an initial shipment in October, Atlas has delivered over 200 reconnaissance drones with such a system to Ukraine’s army, and more have been ordered.
Might optical navigation help Ukrainian forces get off their back foot? Perhaps, says Kurt Volker, a former American ambassador to NATO and, until 2019, Donald Trump’s special representative for Ukraine negotiations. He reckons it could prove to be one of the “technological step changes” that some Ukrainian military leaders have said will be needed to turn the tide. It will take time, however, for the actual effectiveness against Russian jamming to become clearer. Ukraine’s military leadership, Mr Rasmussen says, is rightly keeping tight-lipped about the technology.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1d4dyqi/
Comment: Although I found this on reddit, it was taken from an article in the Economist from last May. And a damned fine article it is. We’ve talked about the rise of computer vision in drones and how it is not a new concept. As the article points out, it was used on our Tomahawk cruise missiles. What’s different now is that this technology is small, light and cheap enough to use on kamikaze drones, drones cheap enough to take out single vehicles or single emplacements or even single soldiers. And it not the Raytheons of this world developing and producing these self-navigating drones.
The nerds and geeks are becoming more and more critical to this war. Young Ukrainians were dabbling in this stuff soon after Russia’s first invasion kicked off. Drones were used to take out a DNR mortar position that was targeting Ukrainian villages between the wars. That was the first instance I heard of their use in this war. Now drone operations are key to the defense of Ukraine. They are also of increasing importance to Russian operations. The rest of the world is watching, tearing up their field manuals and pondering on how they’ll catch up with Ukraine and Russia in drone warfare.
It’s not just militaries facing critical choices, the current industrial base is woefully unprepared for this revolution. The old defense giants and beltway bandits are just not going to cut it. I think units should start hooking up with engineering schools and encourage start ups to work directly with the units. Or perhaps some newly created DoD office chock full of geeks and nerds should make the connection with geeks and nerds in Ukraine to form joint ventures, provide capacity to their drone industry and to learn from the Ukrainian masters.
TTG
In the mid-to-late 1980s, I was passionate about windsurfing. I kept a board in the back of my pickup truck and, when the conditions were ideal, I would drop everything to go sailing. What, you might ask, was the attraction of it?
Someone once said to me that windsurfing is the purest form of sailing. Upon decades of reflection, I couldn’t agree more. There’s no rudder; rather, there’s just the mast articulating on a universal joint to steer the board. A sailor is literally holding the center of effort in their hands when windsurfing, and the center of lateral resistance is right there below the feet. These two terms move solidly from the theoretical to the practical when windsurfing: rake the mast aft, and the board heads up; rake it forward, and the board bears away. It’s rig-balance personified; weather helm has consequences beyond a heavy tiller. The sport certainly made me a better sailor.
I don’t know why I drifted away from windsurfing, but the sport’s popularity certainly crashed after a while. I think it had something to do with gear intensity: To really remain engaged in windsurfing and keep up with fellow sailors, one eventually needed—or at least craved—a “quiver” of sails and boards for various conditions. I recall cars stuffed with sails, wetsuits, and other gear. The purity of the learning days—of one sail, one board, and one sailor—bled out of it.
Somehow, through genetic predisposition or osmosis, my son Linus recently developed a passion for windsurfing, and resolved to spend a portion of his summer earnings on a board. It turns out there are some real bargains out there due to leftovers from the days of gear-stuffed cars. Together we found a board, for which Linus paid a hundred bucks cash, and he let me take my first ride in 35 years. My balance and strength were rusty, but the muscle memory remained.
https://www.woodenboat.com/issue/301
Comment: This is the first half of the editor’s introduction to the latest issue of “Wooden Boat.” Sounds like Matt Murphy, the editor, caught the bug of windsurfing just a few years before I did. I arrived in Germany on New Year’s Day 1990. As soon as the snow, ice and hoarfrost receded, every lake in Bavaria was filled with windsurfers. I wanted in… badly. I bought my first board at Surfstadl Hase not far from the Dorf I then called home. Surprisingly, even my Bavarian neighbors called it a Dorf. It was that small. Every day after work, I’d tie my rig to the roof of the car and head to the nearby lake to teach myself the art of windsurfing. I would get on and fall down until I was too exhausted to get up again. I understood the theory behind the art as Matt Murphy described, but it took a while to turn that theory into practice. Once I did, it was such an exhilarating joy to plane across the lake. It was even more exhilarating doing so on the Chiemsee.
I would have still had that board if it wasn’t crushed in the move back to the states. But not to worry. I put in a claim to Army Transportation at Fort Belvoir and took a trip to Annapolis to pick out a new one. I got a beauty, a Mistral Escape with a 7.2 meter North sail. My plan was to continue my windsurfing on the Potomac. However the Potomac is not the cleanest body of water. Neither I nor SWMBO fancied the idea of gulping river water on a regular basis. That doesn’t happen in my kayak. I have a decent reservoir in Stafford that reminds me of that Bavarian lake where I learned to windsurf, but I’ve only been able to try out the new rig a few times. Between being assigned first to a SMU and then to DIA left me little time for windsurfing. Now that I’m retired, I’ve concentrated on my sailing kayak.
After reading this editorial from “Wooden Boat,” perhaps I’ll spend a little more time with the windsurfer. The Potomac Conservancy says the river has cleaned up a lot since I first returned to the States. I can see my self screeching up to DC or maybe down to the Chesapeake depending on the winds.
TTG
By Robert Willmann
After growing up on the coast and spending time there, I have personal knowledge about hurricanes. My parents built their house to withstand hurricanes, and stayed during the vicious Hurricane Carla in 1961, which had wind gusts over 200 miles per hour. As little kids, we thought it was exciting, with kerosene lamps, candles, and relatives staying with us. But the adults were keeping a careful watch. After it was over, in other parts of the county, shrimp boats and butane and propane tanks had been blown quite a distance inland. Some houses were completely gone, except where a sink or commode had been fastened to a concrete slab.
In more recent years, an annoying practice began of quoting the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Radio, television, and print articles constantly referred to Category 1, Category 3, Cat 5, or Category 4. Or, “Will it be a Category 2?” The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) started saying the same thing. This told the people nothing.
In order to make decisions, the public needs to know five things: 1) The wind speed in the hurricane; 2) Where the hurricane is located and its relation to a land mass; 3) How fast it is moving; 4) How wide it is, or its diameter; and 5) How high the water line might get at the shoreline, also called a storm surge.
Rain comes with a hurricane, but the issue of flooding is known throughout the year.
The Saffir-Simpson scale divided up hurricanes according to how much damage they might cause. But any damage depends on how buildings and infrastructure are built and maintained.
“Emergency management” is done by family, friends, church, your associates, and the community. Before the recent storm Beryl on the Texas coast, I called a friend who was also going to stay and offered to let the family use an electric generator, but they had one. As it turned out, the electricity in the area did not even go out for a second, mainly because the company is attentive and responsive. Beryl was not a real powerful storm at all, but in the Houston area, an electricity company, which makes millions of dollars a month and is on the public stock exchange, did not spend some of that money to maintain the electrical lines and trim back tree limbs, but instead kept it. That resulted in a scandalous outage of electricity in Houston.
Whether you decide to stay during a hurricane or leave, your family, friends, church, and associates can and almost certainly will help before and after. You and they are the “first responders”. Not the Sheriff or police department. And definitely not the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
As of around noon eastern time, Hurricane Milton is about 150 miles away from Fort Myers, Florida and about 175 miles away from Tampa. It is moving at about 17 miles per hour, which is not slow.
Milton rapidly strengthened in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and was forecast to become a Category 5 storm on a path toward Florida, threatening a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and setting the stage for potential mass evacuations less than two weeks after a catastrophic Hurricane Helene swamped the coastline. A hurricane warning was issued for parts of Mexico’s Yucatan state, and much of Florida’s west coast was under hurricane and storm surge watches. Florida’s Lake Okeechobee, which often floods during intense storms, was also under a hurricane watch. “This is the real deal here with Milton,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said at a news conference. “If you want to take on Mother Nature, she wins 100% of the time.”
Milton was a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph (250 kph) Monday morning over the southern Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said. It was forecast to become a Category 5 storm later Monday with winds greater than 157 mph (250 kph) and become a large hurricane over the eastern Gulf.
Its center could come ashore Wednesday in the Tampa Bay area, and it could remain a hurricane as it moves across central Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean. That would largely spare other states ravaged by Helene, which killed at least 230 people on its path from Florida to the Appalachian Mountains. Forecasters warned of a possible 8- to 12-foot storm surge (2.4 to 3.6 meters) in Tampa Bay and said flash and river flooding could result from 5 to 10 inches (13 to 25 centimeters) of rain in mainland Florida and the Keys, with as much as 15 inches (38 centimeters) in places.
The Tampa Bay area is still cleaning up extensive damage from Helene and its powerful surge. Twelve people perished, with the worst damage along a 20-mile (32-kilometer) string of barrier islands from St. Petersburg to Clearwater. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Monday that it was imperative that messes from Helene be cleared ahead of Milton’s arrival so they don’t become dangerous flying projectiles. More than 300 vehicles picked up debris Sunday but encountered a locked landfill gate when they tried to drop it off. State troopers used a rope tied to a pickup truck and busted it open, DeSantis said. “We don’t have time for bureaucracy and red tape,” DeSantis said. “We have to get the job done.”
About 7 million people were urged to evacuate Florida in 2017 as Hurricane Irma bore down. The exodus jammed freeways, led to long lines at gas stations and left evacuees in some cases vowing never to evacuate again.
https://apnews.com/article/hurricane-milton-helene-florida-557c5c512135e0a8661b298e45e17c92
Comment: I’m sure Fred, Lars and Harper are acutely aware of this. I was shocked when I opened my laptop this morning and saw Milton was already a Cat 4. Now it’s a Cat 5 and it still has a lot of hot Gulf water to traverse before Milton will hit Saint Petersburg, Orlando and the Space Coast. Lake Okeechobee and Everglades flooding will likely be severe.
Two Cat 5 hurricanes in close succession in the Gulf of Mexico. That’s unusual to say the least. We can discuss how this happened, what caused this unusual weather pattern later. Right now, it is imperative for Fred, Lars, Harper and so many others in Florida to grab your loved ones, including pets, and even your neighbors and seek safety. If you’re advised to un-ass the AO, un-ass the AO. I’ll be thinking of you.
TTG
Vuhledar… what happened there the last week, ‘or so’ is nothing but a shame.
As first, the GenStab-U might have intended to-, but didn’t rotate out what’s left of the 72nd Mech. It left the remnants of a completely exhausted unit at its own, partially still inside the ruined town. The way things are looking right now (i.e. on basis of currently available information), the CO 72nd Mech then started organising a phased withdrawal. The GenStab-U didn’t take care to help the unit through securing flanks, but – in the light of troops inside Vuhledar posting complaints and requests for withdrawal from the ruined town – dismissed the CO 72nd Mech – and then left the Russians massacre troops still inside the town by dropping FAB-3000 and similar, free-fall bombs from their Su-24 and/or Tu-22M-3 bombers on the ruins of the town, plus massacre troops that attempted to withdraw over open fields north of it, so the town wouldn’t fall while Zelensky was (still) in the USA…
If that is truth, and it looks like it is, then…. well, I’m not pro capital punishments, and my standpoint is that one shouldn’t waste a single life. Therefore, my recommendation would be both Zelensky and Yermak, and the Commander-in-Chief of the ZSU, plus everybody in the GenStab-U who knew about all of this, but refused to quit on his own, belong being re-organised into a de-mining company and sent either to Kherson or to eastern Kharkiv.
Following appropriate training, of course.
There’s simply no other way any of them to ever make good what they did here – while there is a lots of work waiting for their eyes, hands and legs there.
….and that would be a very suitable warning for whoever would replace them, so their successors might learn not to play with lives of thousands of other people.
One way or the other, and what’s worse, based on experiences from the last two years, the net result of this entire affair is going to be that the 72nd – the unit that held out at Moshchun, the unit that held out in Vuhledar for two years, and the unit that was shamefully left down by the political leadership in Kyiv, and by the entire top of the ZSU – is going to join the growing list of Ukrainian brigades that are ‘spent’ for illusions and fantasies, and then left to vegetate while ‘cannibalised’ for whatever officers and other ranks are ‘loyal’ to their superiors, so the GenStab-U can create two other new brigades, consisting of insufficiently trained mobiks.
Atop of that, the ZSU thus lost the best defence position in this part of Ukraine (it comes not out of nothing the 72nd held out in Vuhledar for two years, with no help from the GenStab-U and the rest of the ZSU, plus the PSU). It’s not only that Bohoyavlenka and Novoukrainka are now exposed to further Russian advances. The Russians can expect to advance all the way to the line Velyka Novosilka – Pokrovsk by the end of this year.
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-4-october-2024-illusions
Comment: The defense and eventual loss of Vuhledar points out much of what is good and bad in the Ukrainian army. This unit, the 72nd Mech Brigade has been in combat since the first days of Russia’s invasion. They defended Kyiv at the Battle of Moshchun and were heavily engaged at Bakhmut. They suffered a lot of casualties there and were reinforced, for the first and last time with conscripts. After that, they took up the defense of Vuhledar in January 2023. From that point to now, the 72nd received no help from the General Staff in Kyiv, no individual replacements, no reinforcing units and no time to rest and refit. That they held on against repeated assaults this long and dealt the Russians some truly devastating losses is a testament to their courage and skill. That they received no replacements, reinforcements or time for rest and refit is a failure of Ukrainian leadership… and Western training.
It’s actually a call back to Soviet military thinking. A call back to sending in the next echelon rather than resting and refitting units, as an initial unit is worn out and destroyed, a second and third echelon takes its place. The higher levels of Ukrainian leadership grew up with that thinking and are still wed to it. Rather than creating a program to flow a steady stream of individual replacements to existing units, the Ukrainian General Staff is creating new brigades manned with conscripts. Ukraine is going to have a tough time trying to defeat Russia with this system.
Eight years of Western training, primarily US training, failed to divorce senior Ukrainian leadership from that thinking. Perhaps that’s too much to expect, teaching old dogs new tricks, but training at lower levels worked quite well. Much of that training is conducted by Special Forces teams working with individual training and small unit training. That also explains the success of Ukrainian special operations and resistance forces. Once the war started, training in European bases never went beyond company level. As far as I’ve read, there was no formal Command and General Staff or War College level training. Sure a few Ukrainian officers attended such training in the states from time to time, but that’s not many.
What is needed is a concerted effort to provide that training to a wide group of field grade and even general officer level leaders in the Ukrainian army. I believe it’s too much to ask SF to fulfill this task. Senior SF officers now spend their whole careers in the special operations community. They don’t have the experience and training to train others in high level command and logistics at that level. Even the new Security Force Assistance Brigades (SFAB) are not set up to do this. Either the SFABs have to be refocused and organized to do this or, preferably in my opinion, the command and general staff schools and war colleges should create training teams to bring their knowledge to the Ukrainian armed forces… before it’s too late.
TTG
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