The current fearmongering about a supposedly imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine is a clumsy but convincing piece of propaganda. Remember how the media helped beat the drum to justify a needless, costly war with Iraq in 2003? This is the same damn thing.
Let us start with facts. Belarus announced on December 2, 2021, that it would be conducting a military exercise on Ukraine’s border. Two stages, the first in winter. Everything is ready. Russia and Belarus made an additional announcement on December 29 that they would conduct a joint exercise in February or March in response to NATO military activity in the region. The defense minister explicitly cited troop formations around their state borders, the militarization of neighboring countries, and the need to plan response measures.
I cannot recall a single example from history where a country intent on invading another did so by publicly announcing massive military exercises. Why give your potential foes a heads up? Better to do what the Japanese did at Pearl Harbor: sucker punch your enemy. This is not how invasions are planned. This is how exercises are announced.
British and US intelligence agencies seized onto this news and began creating intelligence reports designed to persuade those with access to classified reporting that Russia was using the exercise as a pretext to invade. Rather than rely on classified intelligence alone, they are following social media platforms that claim to be unaffiliated and objective. The content those sites disseminate as unclassified intelligence dovetails nicely with what is being reported in the classified world.
Analysts covering the so-called Russian buildup on Ukraine’s borders are giving the classified intelligence more credibility because they see similar information on unclassified social media platforms. Circular logic. Self-licking ice cream cone.
It would be useful to know the source of funds that keeps certain open-source intelligence operations running. They appear to be 24-hour operations judging from the flood of tweets. Clearly not the work of one man. The metadata in the images posted reflects the type of collection an intelligence organization would produce. This is not just a group of guys and gals who happen to be in the right place at the right time with iPhones.
There is another political aspect to this charade: gin up fear about an imaginary invasion, and then when it does not materialize, credit the wisdom and bravery of Joe Biden for compelling Vladimir Putin to back down. The boy who cried wolf, updated for the cable news era.
All this Kabuki theater does not erase Russia’s primary concern: they will not allow NATO to boost its presence and deploy sophisticated weapons systems on its western borders. Western bombast about defending democracy in Ukraine is a cover based on a lie. Describing Ukraine as a democracy is akin to describing the village hooker as a virgin. But Ukraine and the hooker share one thing in common: they will go with whoever pays the most.
The Biden team’s incessant warnings of imminent invasion are wearing thin. The only saving grace is that media credibility is at an all-time low. Few read the New York Times or Washington Post or watch cable shows that make tabloid journalism appear respectable. Nonetheless, print and electronic media are eagerly hyping dire warnings about an invasion that is actually a previously announced military exercise.
The Russians are coming! The Russians are coming! Except they’re not. They’re exercising. They announced it. They told everyone. And the Western media machine, desperate for a crisis, desperate to prop up a failing presidency, desperate to manufacture a villain, is running the oldest con in the book.
Some of us have seen this before. Some of us remember the lies that led to Iraq. Some of us are not fooled again.
