Information Warfare–Russia to Invade Ukraine is a Manufactured Lie

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The current fearmongering about a supposedly imminent Russian invasion of the Ukraine is a clumsy but convincing piece of propaganda. Remember how the media helped beat the drum to justify a needless, costly war with Iraq in 2003? This is the same damn thing.

Let us start with this fact–Belarus announced on December 2, 2021 it would be conducting a military exercise on Ukraine’s border:

According to the head of state, the Belarusian-Russian exercise will be held in two stages. The first one will begin in the “next few months.” “We are still making plans, but the first stage will definitely be held in the winter. Everything is ready for this,” the president said. “They will certainly huff and puff over there but we will conduct the exercise. We will be reinforcing that part of the border.”

Russia and Belarus made an additional announcement on December 29, 2021 that they would be conducting a joint military exercise in February or March in response to NATO military activity in the region:

Belarus on Monday announced joint military drills with close ally Russia on its southern border with Ukraine and accused the NATO military alliance of building up offensive capabilities near its borders.

U.S., NATO and Ukrainian officials say Russia has built up forces near Ukraine, sparking fears of a looming attack. Moscow denies any such plan. Belarus is itself locked in a row with the European Union over migrants camped at its western border.

Casting it as a response to new military deployments in countries to the west and south of Belarus, Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin said Minsk would hold an exercise with Russia in the “medium term”. He gave no specific date.

“We see troop formations around our state borders… We can only be concerned by the militarisation of our neighouring countries, which is why are forced to plan measures in response,” he said in comments on his ministry’s website.

I cannot recall a single example from history where a country intent on invading another did so by publicly announcing massive military exercises. Why give your potential foes a heads up? Better to do what the Japanese did at Pearl Harbor–sucker punch your enemy.

British and U.S. intelligence agencies seized onto this news and began creating “intelligence” reports designed to persuade those with access to classified reporting that Russia was using the exercise as a pretext to invade Ukraine. Rather than rely on classified intelligence alone, the British and U.S. intelligence operatives are following some social media platforms that claim to be unaffiliated and objective. But the content and images those sites are disseminating as unclassified “intelligence” dovetails nicely with what is being reported in the classified world.

For example, I recently learned that analysts covering the so-called Russian build-up on Ukraine’s borders are giving the classified intelligence more credibility because they are seeing similar information on the unclassified social media platforms.

One popular platform is #OSTINTTECHNICAL on Twitter. One of the contributors to this account is Kyle Glen:

It would be useful to know the source of funds that keeps osintTechnical up and running. It appears to be a 24 hour a day operation judging from the flood of tweets. Clearly not the work of just one man. Moreover, the metadata in the images posted at that site reflects the type of image collection that an intelligence organization would produce. This is not just a group of guys and gals who just happen to be in the right place at the right time to snap some photos with their iPhone.

I believe there is another political aspect to this charade–gin up fear about an imaginary invasion and then, when it does not materialize, credit the wisdom and bravery of Joe Biden for compelling Vladimir Putin to back down.

All of this Kabuki theater does not erase Russia’s primary concern–they will not allow NATO to boost its presence and deploy sophisticated weapons systems on its western borders. Western bombast about defending “democracy” in Ukraine is a cover based on a lie. Describing Ukraine as a “democracy” is akin to describing the village hooker as a virgin. But Ukraine and the hooker share one thing in common–they’ll go with the person or state willing to pay the most for their services.

The Biden team’s incessant warnings of an imminent invasion is wearing thin. It is a modern version of the boy who cried wolf. The only saving grace is that media credibility is at an all time low. Few read the NY Times or Washington Post or watch cable shows that make tabloid journalism appear respectable. Nonetheless, print and electronic media are eagerly hyping the dire warnings from the Biden (USA) and Johnson (UK) governments about an invasion that is actually a previously announced military exercise.

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40 Responses to Information Warfare–Russia to Invade Ukraine is a Manufactured Lie

    • Larry Johnson says:

      You were on top of this from the start. That’s why folks come to read what you have to say. It matters.

  1. jim ticehurst says:

    Russians Actions..Are Defensive An “Exercise ” As Described..,,With Various Levels Of
    Staging..In Jan-Feb,,In Reaction to “NATO” Biden and B.Johnsons Comments..And Taking Things to the Next Level..So Here We are..Victor Hanson said tonight that Trudeau,,”The MOLE”..is trying to Creat a Tiennaman (S)Square Incident In Canada..
    and Like Minded layers We all Know..are doing the Same In Europe,,They want it to happen..They get off..on War,, The MSM Coverage,,And Body Counts..Right at,,?
    JT

  2. TTG says:

    Now would be a good time to review the events around Able Archer 83. Except this time the roles are reversed. This could all be just an exercise, but I think Putin is using the exercise in an attempt to intimidate Ukraine and NATO into submission. It’s a bold bluff with no intention of actually further invading Ukraine. Unfortunately for Putin, I don’t think the bluff will work. It doesn’t appear Ukraine or NATO will shatter.

    • Larry Johnson says:

      Are you even paying attention to the flood of propaganda pouring out of Washington and London? Seriously dude, Putin didn’t start the bluff and you’re ignoring all of the NATO and US provocations via military exercises in the last 6 months.

      • TTG says:

        What about Putin’s nonnegotiable demands of Ukraine never in NATO and a full NATO retreat from Eastern Europe? Is that part of the exercise? Or is it just an empty threat, which I think it is.

        • Larry Johnson says:

          That has been a longstanding demand. Became more insistent after the US helped foment the coup in Ukraine in 2014. You should not be selective in ignoring our past bad acts. It is a reasonable request. We uphold the Monroe Doctrine. Please explain why we can tell foreign governments to stay the fuck away from our borders but then denounce Russia for adopting a similar position.

          • TTG says:

            I’m not forgetting our hand in the 2014 coup. I think that’s why our response to Russia’s seizure of Crimea was relatively mild. We tried to grab Sevastopol as a NATO base and Russia understandably prevented it. You should also not be so selective in ignoring Moscow’s bad acts. Eastern Europe remembers and chooses NATO because of those decades of bad acts.

        • Larry Johnson says:

          One more thought. Which nation–Russia or the United States–has carried out more military operations in foreign nations in the last 30 years that have resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people?
          US–IRAQ (twice), Afghanistan, Panama, Somalia, Syria, Libya.
          Russia–None. (Casualties in Crimea and Georgia were very small). Russia was asked by the Syrian Government to intervene to fight ISIS and the other Islamists (some of whom we were funding).
          But we meant well, right?

          • TTG says:

            “Russia was asked by the Syrian government to intervene.” That’s a key point. Syria as a sovereign nation decides her own policies and who she associates with. Ukraine and all other Eastern European countries can do the same. They suffered greatly for decades at the hands of Moscow. Now almost every one of them want NATO to ensure it doesn’t happen again, even if Moscow has no intention of ever doing so.

          • Leith says:

            Chechnya from 99 thru 2009 had anywhere from 50K up to a quarter million civilian casualties. Depending on whose estimates you choose to believe. Another quarter million were displaced.

          • Larry Johnson says:

            But not a foreign country. Domestic. How many Native Americans were killed by US troops and civilians?

          • Pat Lang says:

            LJ
            Let’s not forget that the killing was done by both sides.

          • Leith says:

            The Chechen Republic of Ichkeria was an independent state from 1991 after the dissolution of the of the Soviet Union up until 2000. Even after that they had a Government in Exile up thru 2007.

          • zmajcek says:

            TTG

            Support for joining NATO in Ukraine was pretty low before the coup. About 30%.

            Btw Syria as a sovereign nation did not invite the US to occupy a big chunk of its country and oil fields. It also does not invite Israel to conduct regular bombing runs. Did not invite Turkey either.

          • Ghost_Ship says:

            Was the Chechen National Congress the official government? Nah. Did they hold elections to let the people decide if it was the official government? Nah, Did it conduct a referendum on independence? Nah. The Chechen National Congress was as legitimate as the Guaido regime in Venezuela.
            BTW, in 1991 Ingushetia held a referendum on its future and decided to separate from the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria and join the Russian Federation as a constituent republic.

          • Leith says:

            Ghost Ship –

            The Chechen Republic was full of terrorists and kidnappers. Definitely NOT angels, I never implied that. The Taliban Emirate was the only country to recognize them. The hard core ones that fled after the 2nd Chechen War ended up in Syria and Iraq as some of the most dedicated Daesh headchoppers and livereaters.

          • James says:

            TTG – when you write that the Eastern European countries suffered at the hands of Moscow and none of them want that to ever happen again, you are right. But Ukraine not “eastern European” it is Eurasian. It is not Poland or Estonia. Ukraine has been tightly tied to Russia linguistically and culturally for centuries and only the westernmost part of Ukraine (that was part of Poland before WWII) hates Russia as much as the Poles do.

            As for Ukraine’s right to join NATO being non-negotiable – we will see what is negotiable after the first nuclear exchange.

        • Marlene says:

          Is that too much to ask fora peaceful development of events in Europe?
          Had not him been promised such a thing nver would happen?

          You must recall that the USSR acceded to the reunification of Germany in exchange of those conditions.

          Putin, in my view, is being quite discret in his demands, asking for a minimum so that we can have the party in peace, but he could well claim for the reversal of the reunification of Germany, since the other part has not clearly fullfill its part, moreover taking into account that due the current techo-sanitary dictatorship in Germany, former East Germany citizens would highly likely agree, if offered the choice.

  3. Babeltuap says:

    I’m just an old retired engineer CPT and Marine but I never saw the value in an attack. He could take it but they are not just handing it over. Going to be some grit on the other end. Ukraine would also move ground forces faster into civilian areas than he can move to them. A global PR disaster for what? What would he gain. A bunch of poor people and more sanctions…meh. Not worth it.

  4. MapleLeaf says:

    Certainly Putin would rather not inherit the care of an emaciated Ukraine with festering Nazi boils.

    That said, it would make sense that he press whatever diplomatic advantage he has with the constant Western banter of an invasion, in the hope of attaining whatever objectives he has set for Russia. Of these we can only imagine, but most assuredly if he feels the necessity and benefit of using further armed force against Ukraine he will do so.

    Perhaps it might be illuminating to see how these issues between NATO and Russia fit Friedrich Glasl’s nine stage model of conflict escalation. I believe we are currently witnessing the conflict at stage six:

    “Stage 6 – Threat strategies
    The conflict parties try to gain absolute control by issuing threats which demonstrate their own power.”

    Here we see Biden blabbering on about maximalist economic sanctions. And Putin countering with more heavy-metal diplomacy.

    I feel we are reaching the end of the road for Stage 6, and no signs that the conflict has or will be resolved soon. Therefore Stage 7 will commence shortly:

    “Stage 7 – Limited destruction
    One tries to severely damage the opponent with all the tricks at one’s disposal. The opponent is no longer regarded as human. From now on, limited personal loss is seen as a gain if the damage to the opponent is greater. ”

    Inflation is raging throughout the West, increasing uncertainty and perhaps engaging in conventional warfare might hurt Russia in some ways, but the increase in oil prices might reduce the discomfort, while driving rates of inflation higher in Europe/USA. The heavy reliance on financialization leaves the US economy more open to a ponzi-scheme collapse. How enthralled would the US populace be with the government if over a series of weeks their pensions funds halved in value at the same time inflation remained in double digit territory?

    • jim ticehurst says:

      Good Post Maple Leaf..Sorry about Canada..If You are Canadian.I heard on the News That Trudeau became Premier after Only Getting One Third of the Vote..Is That True. ? Also I Have seen Him on TV..along with One of His Ministers Named Marco Mendico..who gives Total Support To Trudeaus Policys..Good Luck..

  5. Leith says:

    I don’t believe Putin ever envisioned a total invasion of all of Ukraine. The piece he is interested in is the Donbas and perhaps its periphery. You could tell that by the disposition of forces. IMHO the mobilization was to hammer any Ukraine military reaction to Moscow’s recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk. If the Ukrainians were that foolish the plan seemed to be for elements of the 1st and 4th Combined Arms Armies to drive south from Belgorod through Kharkiv to protect the Donbas. The Belarus deployments were never intended to head south to Kiev. They were simply to protect the flank from NATO.

    As for mobilizing under the guise of training exercises, it is a long established tradition: i.e. Soviet/Polish War, the Winter War, Hitler’s preparations for the invasion of the Sudetenland (unneeded thanks to Neville Chamberlain). Kruschev once claimed that just prior to Operation Barbarossa that the Soviet Army without Stalin’s knowledge was mobilizing reservists with the pretense of training them.

    BTW nice propaganda poster. Not much of a connection though to current events though. Sure, the four White Army leaders pictured out of the 15 heads in the rogues gallery were supported in one way or another by the West. But not the other eleven.

    • jim ticehurst says:

      You are Always a Good Read Leith., Appreciated,

      It Seemed that Putins Reactions Started with all that Open Talk of Ukraine Joining NATO.Last Year…enough times for V, Putin to Get Concerned. Then all The Back and Forth Following,,Some talk That all 30 Members had to vote them in..and that would never happen..Then no responses to Russian Concerns..to Cool it Down..The Baiting Then Began…and Putin began Staging
      and There was Immediate Reactions from the UK..Biden..and NATO,,More Baiting..and more Escalation.

      One of My Concerns,,is the Global Picture. America is In a Bad Domestic and International Position..Canada Our Neighbor..On Our Border..Is In a CRISIS..
      And There Is The otential THIS Time..That CHINA will Be the Ones Doing the After Olympics Invasion of TIWAN..Well Advertised..Real Threat,,And Ready..
      Defcon One for Taiwan..What are we Doing about That..Where are the 30 Nations Prepared To Arm and Defend Taiwan,,,??
      I See False Flags,,and Sy OPs Every where..All This Is Also Helping China
      and WHO Benefits from That..Her Customers..And Business Partners..and Certain Individuals…
      JT..

      • Leith says:

        JT –

        Let’s hope that Taiwan invasion never happens. Or if it does happen that we don’t get stuck in the middle. Although we would have to as there are ~5000 Americans residing there. But why would China invade and kill her own export trade to America and perhaps lighten our humongous balance of trade deficit.

        I’m no China expert. I’ll defer to Fred and Walrus for their other comments on that.

        • jim ticehurst says:

          Leith..
          All..Answer…Why would China Invade…Taiwan ??>Because..The Chinese CCP..
          Through Chairman Xi.,,Has Long Proclaimed That
          Taiwan Belongs To Mainland China. There was Exile
          To The Island of Taiwan..by The Chinese President and
          His Supporters..During The Chinese Revolution Led By MA overthrew The Government..After They Fled,,

          The United States Navy Formed a Naval Blockade Over There between China And Taiwan…

          The CCP has wanted it Back Ever Since..Even By FORCE
          But Taiwan Was RecognizedBy The UN …
          In 2014..That XI went through a Long Communist Party
          of Advances..Well Connected..,,To become the President/Chairman,,Hit first Visit to Several Countrys
          In South And Central America,,That I Could Name..But Wont.
          .He Negotated With All Of Them..And Asked Them to NOT Recognize TAIWAN any More..and Many Did..Xi Then Set Up his Brick and Road System Over and Bought Thier Resources.Like Any ,, Minerals
          Etc..and then Built a Railroad all along The
          Canal.. Panama.to Transpot It and other Items fior Shipment Back To China,,,
          That Was Before His First Visit The The US..and President Obama;..
          JT

  6. mcohen says:

    There is a lot of white foam flowing on top of the river.Usually happens with heavy rains in the mountains and the rivers come down.The banks swell and are covered over by brown water,hidden from the eye.The undercurrents flow on.

  7. John Maynard says:

    We all know that the West is trying to start sh*t in Ukraine for whatever reason. Let’s just look at the structural aspects rather than the myriad of raisons pour le d’etre. The USSR fell primarily for economic reasons. The cost of empire is high, and the cost of running an empire on war footing could bankrupt Midas. Obviously having a NATO regime in the Ukraine is unacceptable for Moscow. However, there is no way that we will see a Russian occupation. The costs are exorbitant and paying for an unruly stepchild is not something that Putin Inc. is foolish enough to do. The brain trust on Pennsylvania Ave. seems obsessed with another ‘Russia’s Vietnam’, having missed the obvious conclusion that the USSR didn’t lose their empire over a limited action in Afghanistan. Fiscal mismanagement was the obvious culprit, however at this time the US has a much more urgent problem with that issue.

    This whole theatre is getting dull, as the West lacks not on the the will, but ability to wage a peer to peer campaign. To imagine that somehow an army of eunuchs and sexual deviants can support the Ukraine in a proxy conflict is not realistic. Once a few of those expensive airframes are eliminated by modern AD, the game will be over. Without troops on the ground it will be a replay of Wings over Hanoi, and we know how that worked out. It would be nice if Biden’s handlers gave this inanity a rest, but with the domestic problems in the West we will no doubt see more of this bad acting. Let us hope that the game remains just that. One shouldn’t play with Bears.

  8. EEngineer says:

    I’m inclined to think that a larger part of this whole escapade was to create a justification for moving the US embassy from Kiev to Lviv. Excellent cover to burn/lose any inconvenient records from the archives…

    • James says:

      Ukraine east of the Dnieper is essentially Russian speaking and pro-Russian. If Putin takes this area plus Kiev and Odessa, he won’t have much trouble holding “Ukrainian elections” and getting a pro-Moscow government elected. Lviv would then be a Ukrainian Taipei.

      • Philip Owen says:

        Russian speaking, yes. Pro Russian, not so much. That’s like claiming the Irish of Dublin are English.

  9. nardami says:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLAMZEvM9AI

    The “Russian Invasion” was sonic… MAIDAN public address sytem played the anthem of the USSR Tuesday night.

  10. Marlene says:

    The Russian Minsitry of Foreign Affairs published its 11 pages proposal in its site so that the people in the world can atest by themselves, bypassing the usual media lies and disinfo, what was sent ot the US for negotiation with no response so far, except the current attack on the Donbass People´s Republics, then, in a few minutes, the MFA site suffered a DDOS attack….

  11. Marlene says:

    Putin and Russia are not asking for the moon, their demands are reasonable, Ukraine and its people would for sure benefit from such status as a neutral buffer state, since that offers a double possibility for profit, instead of becoming a simple vasal to be milked of what of value there is.

    If the Ukrainian people would know at which pace the alleged European welfare state is being dismantled through the two years of “pandemic” alibi, they would awake to the harsh reality of what they have to expect by entering the EU or NATO.

    It seems that a full nazi European regime is concluding a circle started with the nazi coup in which the Maidan resulted. Welcome to the Fourgth Reich.

    The other day, during Scholz visit to Russia, when he made his words of salute in the first minutes of his meeting with Putin in the Kremlin, the face expression of Putin was of a person who is fuming, his eyes looking diminished to the tiniest, in contrast with the tranquility of the German chancellor.

    Knowing the shameful last play by Scholz today, I am starting to understand that highly likely he was informed of Scholz points and agenda before they met face to face.
    Today, both, the US and Germany, have made a public statement denying that what has happened during these past 6 years onto the population of Eastern Ukraine is a genocide.

    I was going to post an image found in Twitter with the photogrpahs of just some of the victims, but no account informing on Donbass events is available today in Twitter, the informative blackout of which us Western citizens have been also victims during these two years of pandemic comes now to blurr everything related to this conflict, since journalists of race are not left, thus it is to expect that anything resembling reality will not be broadcasted.

    This is very serious offense to the Russians, since everybody who was following the Maidan events and its aftermath know that some dozens of thousands have been killed in the Donbass republics amongst whom most of them are women, children and elder indefense people. Not to mention those who got maimed, like the moving case of Anna Tuv who lost his husband and daughter in a Ukrainian Army attack on his home.

    Denying that what happened in Donbass is a genocide equates dehumanizing the Russians who live there and their borthers in neighboring lands.

    The Russians must not take it personal, since it happens that these elites currently at the head of the Western countries have already decided that the only ones worth to be left to live are they themselves, even the genocide currently taking place in the West as a result of the mass vaccination indiscriminate campaign is being ciovered and denied at all levles of society except those who are suffering from that and those who chose to resist in spite of being applied the same sanctions regime Russia abd other nations have been applied during the las decade or so of hybrid war.

    These elites are at war against the peoples of the world and some nations who do not submit, like their citizenry, to the biggest robberys in hisotry so that they can keep their rate of profit.

    This stance by chancellor Scholz means, in my opinion that he has definitely refused to open NSII and instead have opted for the conquest and plunder option, as happened with Syria.
    There is no other explanation for such gross, offensive and undiplomatic statement.

    When the Maidan happened and a nazi government was installed in Kiev with the collaboration and approval of the whole West, I immediately knew that was just a general rehearsal with everything for a future nazification of Europe.

    Here we go, full state-corporate partnership, dictated from Davos.

    https://t.me/elinvestigador_org/9573

  12. Barbara Ann says:

    Larry

    As a propaganda theme the invasion hullabaloo surely has no downside. If it happens Biden, Bojo & co. say “told you so”. If it doesn’t Biden gets to try and claim credit for facing down Russian aggression – Nobel peace prizes all round (please no).

    US & UK domestic interests aside, I think we still need to look at why Russia has done what it has done. What are its aims, what was the purpose of the December ultimatum followed by the enormous military buildup around Ukraine – even out to Kaliningrad & Syria. Will the troops, ships, aircraft & everything else just go back to base – was it all a giant (& presumably expensive) bluff & if so what has it achieved?

    Presumptions that Russia will not invade because she does not ‘want’ Ukraine may be valid. Putin’s July ’21 essay says the exact opposite FWIW. But I am still puzzled by the simple fact that a retreat by Russia now will surely just embolden the Russophobic Borg & permit the creeping NATO-ization of Ukraine, which has so clearly been declared a ‘red line’ behind which Putin surely cannot retreat.

    Anatoly Karlin has used the Chekhov’s gun analogy to describe the forces buildup. Surely at some point in the plot it has to be fired.

  13. Barbara Ann says:

    “In the absence of the readiness of the American side to agree on firm, legally binding guarantees to ensure our security from the United States and its allies, Russia will be forced to respond, including through the implementation of military-technical measures”

    Lavrov has published the Russian reply to Sullivan’s response to the draft treaty demands (machine translation):

    https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1799157/

  14. Stephanie says:

    I tend to think that Putin will not invade because a) it will surely take much more in the way of weaponry and manpower than he has on the border now to hold the country and b) regardless of any embarrassment involved in saying “never mind,” an attempt to occupy Ukraine would be disastrous for Russia. He is smart, cautious, and not nuts, so I assume he won’t do it, but it’s possible for even the savviest leaders to lose their heads.

    As it is, he’s had heads of state placing calls and trekking to him for weeks and Zelensky saying that maybe the whole NATO thing isn’t such a great idea. I don’t know if that’s enough.

  15. Barbara Ann says:

    Stephanie

    Lavrov’s response in my link above makes it clear it is not enough and that Russia considers itself now forced to apply “military-technical measures”.

    All

    This should get pulse rates racing in Kyiv the Baltic states (& Poland?); Vladislav Surkov, Putin’s erstwhile éminence grise, has written an article suggesting “It Is High Time Russia Reverses the Obscene Treaty of Brest-Litovsk”. An English translation of the article and helpful maps are here.

    Oh, at it appears Russia has its own version of the White Helmets pushing propaganda about mass graves of 300 people in the Donbas (which, unusually as the WH says, is surely BS and instead date from 1940’s Nazi atrocities). That Maria Zakharova is pushing this as evidence of Ukrainian war crimes on the MFA website (Russian) is a very bad sign.

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