""One thing that we agreed on is that the DPRK will provide a full declaration of all of their nuclear programs and will disable their nuclear programs by the end of this year, 2007," Hill told reporters, using the initials for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
Hill said the declaration will also include uranium enrichment programs, which the United States fears could be used to make nuclear weapons." Yahoo News
—————————————————————————–
Most old North Korea hands have been of the opinion that the country was determined to build a war fighting capability with which to intimidate and dominate its neighbors.
A minority believed that this was not so and that the Korean program was largely designed as a bargaining chip in a larger diplomatic game. Looks like the second group were correct.
This should be an lesson to those who insist that diplomatic means will not be effective in dealing with Iran.
It should be a lesson but it will not be a lesson. The reason for that is that the lesson is not wanted.
In November or December of 2002, I took part in a town meeting in Lexington, Virginia on the subject of whether or not there would be war with Iraq. General Zinni and the dean of VMI were the other panelists. In that college town the audience was overwhelmingly anti-war.
At one point a panelist remarked that the discussion of this issue was enlightening but unproductive because on the issue, "the train had left the station."
I fear that a similar train has left the same station. My estimated time of arrival is…
pl
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070902/ap_on_re_as/koreas_nuclear
Is the “war fighting capability” to “intimidate and dominate its neighbors” or a “bargaining chip in a larger diplomatic game” ?
How about a third option? Self protection against a regional hostile state and international power both armed to the teeth with nukes.
No fair PL! You’re just a tease. *g*
Since it seems we’ll have to provide our own estimate of the train’s arrival, here’s mine:
My estimate is March 08. Reasoning?
The primary primaries are over and Prez candidates are locked in. The Republicans will want to do their 2 normal things:
1. Run their candidate under cover of their self-generated “patriotic fever”. Light the same old “fear fire” and the Republican’s willingness to save the free world from Iran’s mushroom cloud (real or imagined).
2. Corner the Democrats as unpatriotic “in time of war”. Can’t trust ’em to protect our “homeland” against those pesky Iranians.
The Administration will use the time (again) to ratchet up both the IO (domestic and foreign), as well as dragging the “red cape” closer and closer to the Iranian “Bull”. Eventually the Bull will charge, and voila, casus belli .
Lastly, it seems that the US Military leadership kinda likes those first few months of a new year to start the ball rolling in the ME.
Or is it merely “gee-whizz” coincidence that both wars with Iraq began in the first few months of a new year?
b
no.
all
thanks for the edits.
MD
in re “tease,” as montag observed “you have to think for yourselves.” pl
It all comes down to where the carrier groups are and via YR.
One may recall also China’s war against Vietnam in 1979 – “teaching Vietnam a lesson” and Israel’s war against Lebanon in 2006. In both cases, the fundamental strategic situation remained the same. In case of Vietnam, they remained in Cambodia and it took years of negogiations to reach a settlement there – in spite of combined US, EU, China, ASEAN sanctions against Vietnam.
The second case has already been discussed else where by many other; another case of foolish escalation to nowhere.
It seems to me that just as every generation has to discover sex on its own, every generation of political leaders also has to discover the limits of power on its own as well.
Cloned Poster,
The Nimitz and Kitty Hawk are heading for an exercise of Sri Lanka with the Indian Navy, Malabar 07-02 to start on Sept. 7th. Both groups would be on station on Sept. 11th when Petraeus. Given that the Reagan and the Enterprise had been in port for the same short time when they each last deployed, I’d reckon the Eisenhower is also on call. Why would it need dockwork? The intervals between deployment are for the crews, who take a lot more of a beating tn the carriers do. I’d guess that the Malabar carriers will go home but you never know.
BTW, the work on the Kittyhawk was scheduled work. The carrier scheduled to cover for it was the Stennis and the rush was because the Stennis got pulled on short notice for the 5th Fleet and the brand new 2 carrier force in the Gulf. I gather the Kittyhawk has had that kind of work every year for some time past. Old but not out. Besides, you’re forgetting all the cruise missiles on the escorts.
At the risk of being completely wrong, I think the threat is the thing rather than a real plan to make an even bigger mess of the oil gulf than it is now. To be credible a threat has to fool everyone,including the home audience. What upside there may be to a permanent threat posture is known only to a few in the White House and Pentagon. The principals are unlikely to tell us what Iranian behavior has been deterred or changed because this administration’s MO is depiction of every Islamic foe as extremists who wreak havoc with no regard to consequences and are too irrational to negotiate with.
The possible downsides to bombing Iran are quite a few. 1) political. Whatever emerges from the fog of war is not likely to be pretty.
It is sure that images of dead Iranian civilians will appear everwhere outside the US. If airpower fails to destroy the Iranian missile capacity Gulf oil supplies could be disrupted for weeks. Part of the world could slide into economic recession. Using tactical nukes to knock out underground missile factories may be a political disaster.
2)military. The Shi’a blowback in Iraq would be expensive in lives and equipment. How much so is impossible to estimate, but I will guess now that it would be a long term problem from more professional types than Moqtada al-Sadr’s group.
Colonel,
if only the jcs for once would act like a jcs instead of bucket-headed prez stick figures. they could stop the iran war train, as they have their hands nearby the break switch.
“I fear that a similar train has left the same station.”
We’ll see.
I don’t have cable television so my chatter-o-meter is what my coworkers are talking about. Just about all of them are vets from different branches. We work inside DoD in the DC metro area.
Attacking Iran hasn’t seeped into the the daily BS session, yet.
1. The Telegraph (London) reports on Washington’s war with Iran and a Heritage Foundation war game per same:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/09/02/wiran102.xml&page=1
And for the bottom line?
“In the meantime, administration officials are studying the lessons of the recent war game, which was set up to devise a way of weathering an economic storm created by war with Iran. Computer modelling found that if Iran closed the Straits of Hormuz, it would nearly double the world price of oil, knock $161 billion off American GDP in a single quarter, cost one million jobs and slash disposable income by $260 billion a quarter.
The war gamers advocated deploying American oil reserves – good for 60 days – using military force to break the blockade (two US aircraft carrier groups and half of America’s 277 warships are already stationed close to Iran), opening up oil development in Alaska, and ending import tariffs on ethanol fuel. If the government also subsidised fuel for poorer Americans, the war-gamers concluded, it would mitigate the financial consequences of a conflict.
The Heritage report concludes: “The results were impressive. The policy recommendations eliminated virtually all of the negative outcomes from the blockade.”
2. For comparison, The Defence Academy of the UK has some interesting papers on Iran and the Middle East here:
http://www.defac.ac.uk/colleges/csrc/document-listings/middle-east/
3. Many forget W’s brother Jeb was an original co-signer of the Neocon PNAC (Project for a New American Century)foreign policy strategy statement. Bush41 also supported his son’s war in public statements here and abroad, for example, once in Denmark as I recall (??). So it is not just W in the Bush family.
Its amazing that after $1 trillion in debt-based spending in Iraq and a PR campaign of lies and misinformation that created the political climate for the Iraq occupation there are no lessons learned for our country.
I no longer believe that what we have is a rogue administration with a warped sense of reality with their hands on the trigger. Its larger than Cheney. Both political parties, institutional leadership of key government agencies like the military/intelligence apparatus, the corporate media and the DC elites want more violence and debt-based spending on destruction. And it also seems odd that there is no vigorous opposition to all this destruction from other players on the world stage. I feel forced to conclude that there is a systemic bias towards the use of military force for any or no reason. What I don’t get is what is the calculation of the elites? What are they betting on?
Colonel,
I am constantly reading about the U.S. plans to attack and destroy the Iranian military but no one is talking about what the Iranian generals may be planning to do while this attack is going on.
If they take a use em or lose em view of their offensive weapons they could salvo their entire anti ship capability against one or more of our carriers and overwhelm the Aegis defense. They could launch all the medium range missles at Kuwait logistic bases, Iraqi airbases, the Green Zone, and Israel. They could quickly put a couple of divisions into southern Iraq and cut American supply lines. They could do all this and more.
The Iranian generals are all veterans of a brutal war against Iraq and will react in their own way. I hope our leadership is thinking about this.
I have to agree with Edward Merkle on this one.
Even if you ignore any interests Iran my have in the eventual makeup of the Iraqi power balance, national self interest would lead it to meddle.
Were I in their – the Iranian’s – shoes I would be watching the US ramping up anti Iranian propaganda, as they did before attacking Iraq, and US domestic concerns at the military’s ability to initiate, and sustain, a third concurrent war. My conclusions would be firstly in the short & medium term to tie down as many US troops as possible in Afghanistan & Iraq by aiding any side engaging them to reduce US operational options and harden domestic opposition to further adventures. In the longer term I would consider the development of nuclear weapons a necessity, even if I had no regional aspirations, as the only realistically affordable deterrent to a vastly superior belligerent power. These are the lessons I would take from observing US ‘foreign policy’ in action. As pl observes in ‘Iran’s complex game’ they are not stupid, they are being backed into a corner with limited options.
Zanzibar:
As I read your post I kept getting visions of President Eisenhower’s farewell address on the dangers on an unchecked military-industrial complex. To paraphrase ‘God help any American President, in dealing with them, who does not have my military experience’.
b: “Is there any way we can stop this?”
Why do you want to? I thought the aim was to hand back Iraq to the Iraqi’s. What do you want the troops in the south to do exactly?
They can patrol and be attacked as an occupying power or they can train the military and police and hope the training is used to bring stability in the long term but the reality is that the trained will use their new found knowledge in the service of which ever power block they owe their allegiance to. Or they can leave and do no further damage.
One must assume that the “calculus” supporting the attack is based on the belief that overwhelming air power from without would cause the collapse of the Iranian regime and that from within Iran, pro-US forces would seize the apparatus of the state. Aside from any consideration whether such an unprovoked assault on a sovereign state is moral or even a wise precedent for a foreign policy which must deal with more powerful sovereign states in decades to come, it seems to be predicated on best case scenarios, and expectations about internal political developments. Experience should have told us by now this kind of planning makes for very bad surprises.
At the risk of sounding too much like an “oily”, of course the ultimate goal may not require the eventual stability of any the attacked regimes but only their elimination as a threat to American interests and those of its one or two client states in the region.
I am constantly reading about the U.S. plans to attack and destroy the Iranian military but no one is talking about what the Iranian generals may be planning to do while this attack is going on.
if they’re smart they will do nothing.
the U.S. military has no ability to threaten the internal power of the Iranian state.
if the Iranians do nothing, you can watch 60 years of cooperation across the Atlantic vanish on TV in a matter of days.
Babak,
You may have made the political comment of the century here:
“It seems to me that just as every generation has to discover sex on its own, every generation of political leaders also has to discover the limits of power on its own as well.”
Would that they learn it more quickly than those previous generations to which most of us belong…..?
“What I don’t get is what is the calculation of the elites? What are they betting on?”
My dear friend, they are betting on a never ending un-winnable war being sufficient to keep themselves rich, and in perpetual power.
Please, please read “1984”, you are in the early stages of living that novel.
Kaiser Wilhelm tried it and failed, killing 20 million in the process.
Stalin likewise, killing over thirty million.
Then Hitler……
Then Mao….
Now Bush.
To put it another way, it’s about preserving the status quo, and in doing so, the priviledged position of said elites.
No electoral reform, no healthcare reform, no tax reform, no death penalty reform, no welfare reform, no pollution control, no trade reform, no infrastructure spending, forget global warming, forget education reform.
Why?
BECAUSE WE ARE AT WAR, STUPID! ALL THAT STUFF MUST WAIT TILL WE HAVE WON! YOUR NOT SUPPORTING THE TROOPS!
And of course, the risk in winding up the rhetoric against Iran to fever pitch is that somebody on either side might just flinch and pull the trigger.
Then both sides have to make good their threats.
CK. Don’t know if they can re-open the straits, but if they can, hitting the facilities in a couple major ports (within missile strike distance) will make sure there’s no oil to load, period.
I also doub they can open the straits, since they can’t take out the missile launchers (see Israel/Hezbollah war) and most commercial ships are just not going to risk it, since they won’t be able to get insurnace.
My first comment here was meant to show that any marketing campaign by this administration hasn’t penetrated to the “average Joe” yet. Plus, since my coworkers and I are working in DoD inside the Beltway, we tend to have a heightened awareness for any sign pointing towards military action. Granted, we’re supporting strategic networks and don’t notice when tactical systems start plugging into our networks – that’s all done in the operations side of the house. Yes, there are problems with my barometer but I think it’s important to remember that public support for this attack must come from average folks thinking it’s a good idea. If my coworkers aren’t even talking about it yet, how much more marketing penetration is required to get the American people to jump aboard?
So, the decision may have been made by Bush to start softening up the American people and that train has left the station. But there is no guarantee this time that it will actually arrive at its destination. Here’s why I think it won’t make it:
1. The GOP congress-critters up for re-election aren’t going to be happy with a “35-40%” support for a war. If some of the political analysis I’m reading is true, they are already very worried about how Bush’s unpopularity and Iraq are going to hurt them in 2008.
2. The GOP rank and file is turning against Bush. They already see him as a liability. I’m watching die-hard Republicans turn against him. Sure, the neocons are still on the news channels’ rolodexes, but I think that’s more a sign of a broken news media that doesn’t have the time to find new “experts” to fill their 24/7 schedule.
3. The Democratic Party’s base will mobilize to challenge any Dem Congress-critter who does not fight Bush tooth and nail. So it just won’t be the Republicans paying the price in 2008. There is a lot of talk in Lefty Blogosphere about mounting primary challenges to any Dem who does not oppose Bush’s plans strong enough.
4. Finally, and probably most importantly, those old-timer GOPers from the Iraq Study Group who threw Bush a lifeline before the surge haven’t gone into complete hibernation. I suspect they are exerting maximum pressure on Junior to stop the madness and get a grip on reality. Yeah, that’s pure speculation on my part for whatever its worth.
Bush may want to raise both his hands, give us all the middle fingers and sign the orders but that doesn’t mean he will. It depends on Republicans caring more about their political survival than continuing their support for Bush.
I think the majority of GOPers will put themselves and their careers first.
Re: Ian’s, Tim’s comments:
The Israel/Hez. war is a lesson for a U.S./Iran conflict, but, Hez. was PREPARED, as described in the Col’s Miller Center talk. So, is Iran prepared?
Some of the comments by the informed contributors here make the Air Force planners seem like idiots. I have trouble believing this, but Israel put too much trust in its air force too, I guess.
After a U.S. attack on Iran, would it really not be possible to:
* Protect oil facilities and shipping in the gulf;
* Protect our supply lines?
(Leaving aside Iran’s response in Iraq and Afghanistan, for the moment.)
Definitely the train has left the station, take a look at the famous of Axis of Evil nations from the view of a NeoCon.
Axis of Evil (NeoCon’s Hit-list)
Iraq – Invaded and now a Democracy.
North Korea – Gave up nukes and off the terrorist/rougue nation’s list.
Iran – ? and ?
Think of it, by the time W (and Cheney) leave office the Axis of Evil will have been defeated and the world safe for Democracy. Wouldn’t that be a great legacy (and great for the history books too) ?
b,Col. Lang,JJackson,
I thought b’s,” Is there any way we can stop this Pat?” referred to U.S. Attacking Iran rather than the British leaving S. Iraq.?
Ha’aretz’s chief US correspondent reports that the USG propaganda machine for a war against Iran will hit high gear the week after labor day. His source is a professor and blogger Barnett Rubin who spoke to someone at a “neoconservative” think tank. Rubin’s info has been picked up by the New Yorker. Money quote:
“They [the source’s institution] have “instructions” (yes, that was the word used) from the Office of the Vice-President to roll out a campaign for war with Iran in the week after Labor Day; it will be coordinated with the American Enterprise Institute, the Wall Street Journal, the Weekly Standard, Commentary, Fox, and the usual suspects. It will be heavy sustained assault on the airwaves, designed to knock public sentiment into a position from which a war can be maintained. Evidently they don’t think they’ll ever get majority support for this?they want something like 35-40 percent support, which in their book is “plenty.”
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/rosnerBlog.jhtml?itemNo=865078
Also speaking of trains…here’s an interesting coincidence from the same Ha’aretz article:
“The job of the officials from the Pentagon, the State Department, and the Departments of Homeland Security and Energy, who have gathered in an office just off Massachusetts Avenue, behind the rail terminus, Union Station, is to prevent a spike in oil prices that will pitch the world’s economy into a catastrophic spin.”
A YNET article also quotes an Israeli counter-terrorism expert who claims “The Second Lebanon War provided Israel with a unique opportunity to study its own weaknesses and resolve problems, ahead of a potentially more far-reaching confrontation caused by a military strike on Iran.”
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3445177,00.html
<"Its larger than Cheney.">
Zanzibar,
Indeed it is, IMO. A serious analysis would consider the role of top elites with transnational ties. Cheney and Rumsfeld are not players at the rarified levels that Shultz and Kissinger represent, IMO. The Neocons are just “hires” for the big boys like Shultz who seem to have big plans.
Bill Langer spelled out the situation in Europe in WWII per such elites in his important book “Our Vichy Gamble” (New York: Knopf, 1947). I own the presentation copy Professor Langer signed and gave to Dean Acheson, then Undersecretary of State. Page 168 where Langer comments on a certain military-industrial complex in this case French collaborationist circles:
“These people were as good fascists as any in Europe….many of them had extensive and intimate business relations with German interests and were still dreaming of a new system of ‘synarchy,’ which meant government of Europe on fascist principles by an international brotherhood of financiers and industrialists…”
I have read extensive declassified wartime reporting on this European phenomenon and Langer was not imagining things. These European circles had American colleagues and my sense is that Ike’s famous remarks reference all this as he was quite familiar with it given his WWII job in Europe.
My sense is that Shultz and his circles in the US and abroad thought they could get away with the Iraq War as part of a program to “transform” the region (and the US). The Iran War is a follow on. Naturally, the region is thereby destabilized but they may calculate this as a plus.
I do not understand how the financial implications for the US and our dollar can be overlooked. We have a “twin deficit” (budget and current account) that just gets worse and we are into the current war a good 500 billion with another say trillion and a half or so to come.
One play I could see for the Shultz circles (which would include Bruce Kovner of AEI) would be to shift out of dollars to a basket of harder currencies, let the US crash and burn, then step back in and pick up assets you want for dimes on the dollar. One might also use the chaos to promote a tighter North American Union structure subservient to transnational elites…like the EU for example.
This was the pattern in the 1920s in Germany where business elites moved their gold marks out into Dutch banks, CAUSED the hyperinflation in Germany, then stepped back in to buy up assets for a pittance. The Stinnes Group was one such player. Then these circles financed Hitler to “transform” Europe.
Here is an item to consider:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,12271,1312540,00.html
On Kovner of AEI see:
http://nymag.com/nymetro/news/people/features/12353/
As I see it, there are three main options on the table for the US, and just as few Iranian responses.
1. Limited US strike against the nuclear targets with an immediate warning to the Iranians not to retaliate or face a more severe attack.
The Iranians have just a few responses.
A: None. Let it blow over and make a big deal in the int’l court of the press of how they have been wronged.
B: Limited strikes against US Navy & Airbases in the ME. This of course leads to more US strikes, Iranian responses, etc.
C: “Use ’em or Lose ’em” response with a massive retaliatory strike with all they have against US airbases, naval, and ground forces in ME, along with hits on Saudi, etc oil terminals.
2. Limited US strike against Iranian nuke facilities along with any med & long range missiles, naval and air forces that could retaliate, with stern warning not to try to retaliate.
The Iranians have just a few responses.
A: None. They might not be able to.
B: “Use ’em or Lose ’em” response with a massive retaliatory strike with all they have against US airbases, naval, and ground forces in ME, along with hits on Saudi, etc oil terminals.
3. Massive US air strikes targeting all Iranian military with the plan to eliminate any possibility of retaliation and eliminating them as a military force in the ME forever.
The Iranians have just a few responses.
A: None. They might not be able to.
B: “Use ’em or Lose ’em” response with a massive retaliatory strike with all they have against US airbases, naval, and ground forces in ME, along with hits on Saudi, etc oil terminals.
The Iranians are not stupid, they read the US and Israeli news and threats, and have planned accordingly. They also know that we cannot hit ALL of their missiles. What do you think they will do? I’d bet on the last option in ALL of the above, they don’t have much choice, if they let the US bomb them, they know that we will try to make sure that they can’t strike back, so I’d bet that their missile, naval and air forces are on short notice alert. It’s what I’d do in the same situation. I’d hate to be on a carrier in the gulf. This is just my best informed guess though.
DanaJ
Sorry b, see what you mean.
“The Iranian generals are all veterans of a brutal war against Iraq and will react in their own way.”
A war which they also lost, don’t forget about.
The last time the iranians went against the USN in the Gulf they were utterly smashed.
The vulnerability of the aircraft carriers against iranian antiship missiles
is greatly overstated. Their best bet is use what they have against merchant traffic to maximize economic disruption.
Cold War Zoomie, you have made an excellent summary of the logical reasons why an attack on Iran makes no sense for the Republicans at present.
You then reach the logical conclusion that therefore such an attack is unlikely.
With the greatest respect, I draw your attention to the phenomenon of human stupidity – which is behaviour that creates lose/lose situations for all participants.
And the reason the stupid create such havoc is that rational people consistently underestimate the capacity of the stupid to do stupid things because such behaviour would be …..well……stupid.
Bush is stupid, he is just as likely to attack Iran today as never.
From Colonel Sam Gardiner:
Marcello
I don’t doubt we can destroy every major structure in Iran – all their key buildings, power plants, bridges, water stations, dams, ports, airports, railroads, etc.
But unless we go and occupy the ground we don’t control anything. Do we have the manpower and appetite for another insurgency? Or would we just smack our lips in glee with the destruction of Iranian infrastructure and the death of hundreds of thousands? What do folks believe would be achieved – that the Iranians would capitulate and then do as we please after we bomb the snot out of them?
I believe PL is right on – it will be the first battle in a long drawn out war. One thing that I feel fairly certain about is we would become the most despised nation on the planet with many plotting our downfall. Not a good situation for our children. What goes around usually comes around.
Danaj, There is also option D. Stop (part of) the oilexport, can even write the speech to sell the policy. “We wanted to build a nuclear power industry to fuel our economy but as this has been made impossible by American action we need to use our hydrocarbons for that and as such we must stop our oilexports.”
Get Venezuela, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia to each lower their export and the US is in a lot of pain.
the Persicos with the Misrawi have outflanked the Dumbyas
AsiaTimes
Iran spinning centrifuges – and half-truths
By Gareth Porter
Col.
Is it IC’s usual practice or yet another stovepiping operation?
I wonder how senior policymaker use raw intelligence made by foreign agency bypass most IC’s review?
—
North Korea may be cooperating with Syria on some sort of nuclear facility in Syria, according to new intelligence the United States has gathered over the past six months, sources said. The evidence, said to come primarily from Israel, includes dramatic satellite imagery that led some U.S. officials to believe that the facility could be used to produce material for nuclear weapons.
The new information, particularly images received in the past 30 days, has been restricted to a few senior officials under the instructions of national security adviser Stephen J. Hadley, leaving many in the intelligence community unaware of it or uncertain of its significance, said the sources, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Some cautioned that initial reports of suspicious activity are frequently reevaluated over time and were skeptical that North Korea and Syria, which have cooperated on missile technology, would have a joint venture in the nuclear arena.
Glenn Kessler, N. Korea, Syria May Be at Work on Nuclear Facility, Washington Post, September 13, 2007
—
We know that both Iran and Syria have long cooperated with North Korea on ballistic missile programs, and the prospect of cooperation on nuclear matters is not far-fetched. Whether and to what extent Iran, Syria or others might be “safe havens” for North Korea’s nuclear weapons development, or may have already participated with or benefited from it, must be made clear.
John R. Bolton, Axis of Evil: Pyongyang’s Upper Hand, WSJ, August 31, 2007