Abu Duhour air base


"The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) is mass mobilizing their troops at the Hama-Idlib axis as they prepare to launch their long-awaited offensive to retake the Abu Dhuhour Military Airport.

Several units from the Tiger Forces, 4th Division, and Republican Guard been pouring into northeastern Hama for this upcoming offensive, while their allies from the Russian Air Force heavily bombard Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham’s positions in this region."  AMN


Why Abu Dhuhour?  If you look at a map or a facility chart you will see that Abu Duhour has two long runways, a lot of facility buildings and is centrally located with regard to both Raqqa City and all of Idlib Province.  It is about a  hundred miles from Raqqa.  It would seem that R+6 want a large forward base for operations in the next phase of the reconquista.  That makes sense to me.

At the same time DJT is meeting in VN with Putin where he will discuss Syria.  Hope for the best.  pl 


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22 Responses to Abu Duhour air base

  1. Ex 11B says:

    The whole point of island hopping in the Pacific was to secure airbases. Since the desert seems a bit like the lonely sea, then this approach seems to make sense for many of the same reasons.One could bypass some of the lesser Headchoppers (Inc)outpost and let them “wither on the vine”. Also like our flyers in WW2, the Syrian Air Force could use such outpost as target practice.
    Trumps handlers have already nixed the side meeting with Putin. I wish Trump would just tell those people to hit the road. Its time to get ruthless.

  2. Charles says:

    We are impatient, Pres. Trump is a patient man. His DC handlers may say what they wish, the Pres. will do what he deems strategically appropriate.

  3. Lemur says:

    There’s a theory below Trump and Putin are working in tandem to get their respective allies in order preparatory to a grand bargain:

  4. Charles says:

    Theories that reinforce our own belief in our own perspicacity are always welcome.

  5. charly says:

    Idlib is not a desert. Airbases have the advantage that they are already cleared of civilians so in that respect they are islands in the sea.

  6. Bandolero says:

    Regarding why Abu Dukhour:
    – freeing Abu Dukhour from Al Qaeda is in line with the Askana agreement
    – Abu Dukhour is a – or the – main command and control center of Al Qaeda terrorists in the eastern part of the Idlib pocket
    – Abu Dukhour is the main train station between Hama and Aleppo
    – a while ago the Syrian Army suffered a most ugly defeat at the Abu Dukhour airbase, while proud Syrian soldiers were executed in mass by Al Qaeda, which was very much present everywhere, so getting it back restores Syrian proud.

  7. Uhm, and the evidence for Trump being patient is what, exactly?

  8. FB Ali says:

    Don’t pay any attention to such complete garbage!

  9. confusedponderer says:

    just look at what Truimp does and how very patiently waiting he is.
    Think about how often Mr. Twitter has twittered up-to-140 word wisdoms from the golf place. It suggests that he apparently was incapable to wait for anything. It had to be posted, ‘RIGHT THEN, RIGHT NOW’. Not so patient.
    I get the same impression when I think about his comment that Twitterson is ‘wasting his time negotiating with NoKo’. And I always thought that diplomacy is part of the job for a foreign secretary. Not so patient.
    As for an only vocabularily related question – whether Trump is a patient – well, it is something I know anything about and it is not my business.

  10. Dmcna says:

    I think it is a good base from which to strengthen an attempt to retake the M5. The reopening of this road would improve life for the people in many of Syria’s major cities.

  11. LeaNder says:

    cp, Trump, apart from his highly objectionable statements used the occasional standard camouflage and cover statements, figuratively, in a way easy to understand for the men/women “on the street”. This might be the basis for hope. … After all he is rich, doesn’t that suggest he is sly too?

  12. confusedponderer says:

    I assume that Trump is saying things he feels good with and what his pollsters say his voters want to hear, speaking “figuratively, in a way easy to understand for the men/women ‘on the street’ “.
    As for him being sly? Well, likely he is.
    In any way, for some reason, he certainly has this reputation of not paying bills and of not listening to advise. That, and his unwise tweeing, reportedly likely was reason enough for major US law corporations refusing to take him as a client.
    “… a new report suggests that Trump is having trouble finding lawyers willing to work for his defense.
    Lawyers from at least four major firms … have turned down White House requests for legal assistance …
    One of the most common reasons cited was the belief that Trump would not accept his lawyers’ advice and could send out tweets or other public utterances that would undercut his legal teams’ efforts.
    While the article didn’t mention this as an example, the concern does draw to mind observations like that of George Washington University Law School Professor Jonathan Turley, who has noted that Trump’s tweets might hurt his lawyers’ case when arguing in support of his so-called travel ban.
    “The worst aspect of the tweet is that it plays directly into the hands of those challenging his order,” Turley noted about Trump’s Monday morning tweetstorm, adding that “it must be incredibly frustrating for his counsel who have insisted that his references to a ‘Muslim ban’ during the campaign are immaterial to the executive order …
    Lawyers are also concerned that Trump may not listen to their advice or pay them for their time …”

    Not listening and not paying don’t make a good customer. With such folks, why have the hard work to give good advise, only to be ignored, undermined and not being paid or while being ‘untwittered’? Well, why not do something else instead?
    And as to how rich he is, well, he certainly is far richer than I am. Still, he’s been insolvent a couple times and last week I read he lost a notable sum last year – 600 million dollars.
    Trump was ‘the most notable loser’ on Forbes’ list of wealthiest Americans
    President Donald Trump’s net worth fell $600 million to $3.1 billion over the past year, according to Forbes Magazine’s calculations, putting him 92 spots lower on the list of America’s wealthiest than he was in 2016.
    Forbes wrote that Trump was “the most notable loser” on its list of the 400 wealthiest Americans.
    Forbes attributes the drop to a decline in the value of his Manhattan real estate, his $25 million settlement to resolve a class action lawsuit filed against Trump University, and the $66 million he spent on his presidential campaign …


  13. different clue says:

    The value of a theory lies in the predictions it allows its holders to make which then come true.
    So . . . we have a theory. Now we get to spend the next few years observing what predictions it allows its holders to make and how many of those predictions come true.

  14. Bandolero says:

    I don’t think the borders of Syrian provinces do play any role in this.
    What I do think is that the borders between the Turkish, Russian and Iranian areas of responsibility do play a role, though:

  15. Peter AU says:

    I have run into a few people over time, that put up a facade, a persona, to cover what they are thinking, what they feel.
    Some of these are simply very private people with nothing bad behind the facade. Others are simply psychopath types that want to cover up what they are thinking, because they instinctively know they will not be tolerated in normal society.
    Both types seem to do this from a very early age.
    Which type is Trump?

  16. turcopolier says:

    Peter AU
    You seem very self righteous. pl

  17. Confused Ponderer – I’ve known some good lawyers in my time but even so it’s a plus for your President, surely, if it’s true that the big American law firms won’t take his business. When you consider whose business they do take.
    Or do you think the more prosaic explanation might be that they’re worried about conflicts of interest? If the other side’s booked them already? From what I read in the press it looks as if every man and his dog over your way is getting lawyered up. Sounds odd for America, a country knee deep in lawyers, but might it be the case that at present there aren’t enough of them to go round?

  18. Eric Newhill says:

    It’s an old trick in the US for a big player to tie up the top law firms with attorney/client and interest conflict arrangements. This is usually done well in advance of any actual legal problems as SOP. Farm out a little corporate law to this firm, a little tax law need to that firm, a little law suit to the firm over here a bit of legal advice from that firm over there. By the time someone comes along seeking to file suit as a plaintiff against the big player, all the best firms must refuse to take the case.
    As much as we all like an underdog lawyer going after the big fish, the reality is that the underdog mostly just doesn’t have the connections and resources needed to prevail.

  19. charly says:

    The Muslim ban is pure politics and not so much actual anti terrorist because then other countries would be on the list. Because it is only politics it is a feature and not a bug that it needs to be redone again by writing a “dumb” tweet. It means it is again in the news cycle.

  20. different clue says:

    Peter AU,
    I think I might agree with you in general on people who put up a facade, a persona, to cover up the “real inner them”.
    I don’t see Trump doing that. To me he looks absolutely transparent. What we see is what there is. Is he conning me into misunderestimating him, the way Dubya Bush used to do? If that’s what he is doing, its working on me, because I don’t see it.

  21. Gabriel Uriarte says:

    To fill in a bit of the recent history of the place, capture of Abu Duhur in September of 2015 was a major military success –possibly the last one as well, come to think of it, at least against the SAA–for the then-called Jabhat al-Nusra. The place had been besieged since 2012, but the air-strikes and the heavy weapons deployed around the airfield were enough to keep enemy forces at bay for years.
    There’s an a slightly equipment-focused English-language account of the place’s fall here, http://spioenkop.blogspot.com.ar/2015/09/the-fall-of-abu-ad-duhor-airbase-civil.html, but, for those who can manage Spanish, there’s also a very nice analysis of the numbers and tactics involved (approach saps and tunnels used in the early-modern siege traditions to overcome those heavy weapons) here, https://misterxanlisis.wordpress.com/2016/04/23/el-asedio-y-conquista-de-la-base-aerea-de-abu-duhur/.
    Since then, it not unnaturally appears to have become a command and control center for Nusra, at least enough for Russia to send TU-160s to bomb it, https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/jabhat-al-nusra-devastated-massive-russian-airstrike-abu-duhur-airbase/ in May of last year.

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