"Turkish prosecutors have issued arrest warrants for 140 Constitutional Court members and 48 members of the Council of State in the wake of Friday night’s attempted coup. Ten arrests have already been made, local media reported.
The ten jurists detained were all members of the Council of State, which is Turkey’s top administrative court, NTV broadcaster reported.
The arrests followed media reports that judges at other courts had been detained, as the government’s crackdown on the judiciary in the wake of the coup attempt widens.
Constitutional Court member, Alparslan Altan, has become the most senior judicial official to be arrested after the coup, CNN Turk broadcaster reported.
RT'S LIVE UPDATES on the attempted military coup in Turkey
Earlier on Saturday, Turkish authorities relieved 2,745 judges of duty.
The decision to sack the judges was made at an extraordinary meeting of Turkey’s High Council of Judges and Prosecutors (HSYK), NTV broadcaster reported." RT
————–
From what I am hearing from sources in Turkey, this may have been a pre-emptive "false flag" operation in which a group of members of the armed forces were sent into the fraudulent "coup" by Erdogan loyalists among senior officers. He has appointed many. IOW the people in the "coup" may have been deliberately sacrificed as "props" so that Erdogan could whip up his followers and consolidate power before he changes the constitution to make himself an absolute ruler. pl
https://www.rt.com/news/351602-turkey-supreme-court-arrested/
According to Hurriyet newspaper’s online edition, some of the privates who were detained told interrogators they were not aware that they were part of a coup attempt. They had been told by commanders they were taking part in military maneuvers. Some said they understood that it was a coup attempt when they saw civilians climb on tanks.
Cee
See my latest post. pl
If it is a fraud, how can Ergodan close the Incirlik airbase until the US hands over Gulen? The act is so defiant, it implies they can either convince the US that their case is legitimate or that the US will be forced to go along with it anyway. Since I can’t believe the second, I lean to the first, that Turkey can convince the US of its case.
There are several possibilities.
Erdogan obviously had lists prepared.
Some rumors say it was known that Erdogan would purge many and the coup was hastily launched to prevent that.
Others say Erdogan had info about coming coup, prepared for it and let it happen to use it for a purge.
Pat above suggest full false flag coup. Does not convince me (yet).
Others say a CIA/Gülen coup to prevent change in Turkish foreign policy towards Russia and Syria.
There are pro and cons for each variant and no evidence for any.
Now Erdogan is telling Obama to give up on Gülen or on Incirlik air base. “You can have either but not both.”
Waiting for Obama’s reply …
Russell
You don’t seem to grasp the idea that Turkey is an independent sovereign state that the Obama Administration has been sucking up to. Erdogan can do anything he wants. Didn’t he recently blackmail the EU into giving him 6 billion Euros to stop sending migrants across the Aegean Sea. I see that you are Canadian. Do you really believe the US rules the world? What a joke! pl
Col.,
looks like the Sultan is going after all his domestic opponents. A Turkish “night of the long knives” are Mark Riebling called it on the prior thread. Here’s the Sultan’s orders to Obama:
http://www.wdsu.com/national/urgent-erdogan-demands-us-arrest-or-extradite-cleric/40742782
b
“and the coup was hastily launched to prevent that.” If that were true, then the coup would have had Mass and it did not. “coming coup, prepared for it and let it happen to use it for a purge.” If that is true he is one hell of a gambler because he could not know how big, how thorough and how savage the coup might be. pl
No the US does not rule the world. Every day I see the world is more complicated than I thought. I have no illusions to understanding it in any deep sense.
I’m glad that the Obama Admin was able to so skillfully and quickly play the role that the Sultan had assigned them.
A “Reichstag Fire” type of Faux-Coup to be followed by many Nights of the Long Knives? After Erdogan thoroughly consolidates sole power, will he return to supporting the jihadis in Syria even harder? Will he wait and hope Clinton is elected so he will have an American President who shares his deep commitment to overthrow Assad?
Will the R + 6 consider the looming possibility of a Clinton election even more urgent a deadline to make the jihadis unrestorable before Erdogan’s “soulmate-on-Syria” gets into the White House?
Col. Lang,
Was he attempting to flush out his opposition?
– Eliot
Eliot
IMO he and his already had a long list. pl
All
The Turkish government has cut off electricity to the base at Incirlik. I presume this is the sultan displaying his contempt for Obozo. pl
I completely agree with Colonel Lang.
This ”coup” was fischy from the begining.
About lynching of surrendered soldiers: tweeter Bahar Kimongur…. hastag Turkey Coups … in French but graphic pictures showing democratic head shoppers at work.
All,
A little fascinating history on Turkey and Operation Sledgehammer
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sledgehammer_(coup_plan)
b,
I think that this is much more likely than a false flag conspiracy. Too much that can go wrong in that scenario. The coup attempt provides a pretext for Erdogan to implement a purge with prepared lists.
Gulen seems to be a convenient foil.
Erdogan’s leverage is that Turkey is useful for US interests in the region.
I’m sure that President Obama will reciprocate with endless praise for the Turkish people and their demonstrated commitment to democracy, etc. Secretary Kerry has been traveling the world, a knee in search of someone to bend to. He can pencil in a visit to the Sultan’s Court once Vladimir grows tired of him.
The timing was perfect. The two aircraft carriers that we temporarily had in the Mediterranean are gone. The Eisenhower transited the Suez on 8 July enroute to the Persian Gulf. The Truman transited Gibraltar on 2 July enroute to Norfolk. With Incirlik closed down, the jihadis have some breathing room to try to pull their nuts out of the fire at Manbij and in other areas. I think it’s same to assume that the White House and State Department don’t know whether to shit or go blind. Let’s hope the Pentagon has a handle on the situation.
Will Reks
Now, really, what could go wrong since he has the senior generals in his pocket? pl
The “Obozo” that you voted for twice?
SST, Col. Lang
Turkey is bankrupt economically. Its tourism sector, agriculture, building sector and industrial output have all declined precipitously. Nothing which can happen in the next few weeks can change these facts in the short term. tayyip cannot prosecute a war against Syria or Iraq- he has no money,and no army. And he cannot keep his supporters happy unless he raises more money, and fast. His only hope is to play Obama against Putin and vice-versa. IMO Putin is far too shrewd for this. Let us see what Obama does. Any guesses?
BTW, gulen and his followers, those “mild islamists” , those dishonorable, mendacious architects of Sledge-hammer and Ergenekon travesties against secular officers deserve all they get and more. Karma?
Again, keep the Book of Hosea (thanks, Friend Thomas) and, particularly Hosea 8:7 in mind.
Ishmael Zechariah
There are reports and photos in Turkish social media of the surrendered conscripts being beaten, lynched and even beheaded by the mobs to whom they surrendered. As noted elsewhere, the conscripts thought they were doing a military exercise, not participating in a coup. Also Turks are attacking Alawi and Kurd settlements. Erdogan is getting his payment, as he said, and it is getting ugly.
Yes my friend, it is a time of Whirlwinds and Whores, the zonah type that is.
Be safe.
This appears to be a false flag operation.
quote from a zero hedge thread:
“The signs were obvious earlier. Gabriel Turner, 23, a management consultant from north London, who was on holiday in Istanbul, described to the Telegraph how there had been heavy police and security presence throughout the day before the military coup got underway after sunset.
“Earlier today there were police everywhere. I thought that was normal but the two Turkish girls I was with told me it wasn’t normal. We were walking around the centre of Istanbul, at the Grand Bazaar there were police at every entrance and exit with lots of guns.
“A police helicopter was flying very low at sunset, it was about 8pm. It looked like it was searching for something. Later on, at about 10.30 I was in Karakoy, a bar area in the city centre and everyone started looking at their phones. A man who owns the bar told us that the army are taking over everything.
“Then we walked down towards the a quieter area by the sea. While we were walking, my friend said the army had closed brides across the Bosphorus. We could see army helicopters in the sky.
“We went inside a cafe and everyone was on their phones looking worried, texting. Lots of people were running to catch a ferry – because the bridges were shutting and people wanted to get home. Then policemen came out of the ferries on their walkie talkies, looking very alert.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-15/martial-law-declared-turkey-helicopters-military-jets-flying-over-capital-army-tanks?page=1
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/turkey-coup-conspiracy-theory-erdogan-military-gift-from-god-soldiers-istanbul-a7140516.html
I’m not a conspiracy theorist as the post from UK’s The Independent suggests, but I agree with COL Lang on this one. As many SST readers have noticed, on the GOT side there are too many responses happening too quickly for this to have been a “real” military coup. I also believe that when the Turkish military finally does conduct a coup, it will be very bloody very quickly.
I suspect this is the same person, who is affiliated with the DHKP-C, formerly Dev-Sol(Devrimci Sol – Revolutionary Left), one of Turkey’s oldest and deadliest terrorist groups.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahar_Kimyong%C3%BCr
The pictures provided may be genuine, but the motivations of the source are highly suspect. (Note that I despise Erdogan myself, and wish he would be toppled, but the group with which Kimyongur is affiliated has committed plenty of truly horrific crimes itself.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolutionary_People%27s_Liberation_Party/Front
Pat,
I’m open to your reasoned speculation here but I think a poorly executed junior officer’s coup as a panicked response to coming purges is somewhat more plausible to me than a false flag.
What could go wrong? That would be giving up control of your airspace.
So what happens to the nukes on base in a situation like this?
It’s almost like some kind of Brotherhood or something.
“BTW, gulen and his followers, those “mild islamists” , those dishonorable, mendacious architects of Sledge-hammer and Ergenekon travesties against secular officers deserve all they get and more. Karma?”
Ishmael,
That explains why the army remained on the sidelines?
– Eliot
This was in all likelihood a badly planned or hastily launched coup from within the military. It may well have been precipitated by knowledge of an imminent purge by Erdogan, ie, the purge he is executing now.
It may have been initiated by the Gülen organization (because its supporters are going to bear the brunt of the purge). The CIA probably has ties to Gülen, and may have known of the impending coup; it is also possible that they helped.
Erdogan didn’t need the (failed) coup to carry out his planned purges (though he would have perhaps required more time to carry them out without it). He would have to be quite a gambler to have learnt of the planned coup, and to still let it happen and fail; I doubt if he would have considered the risks were worth the prize.
Manufacturing a coup is a very complex and risky undertaking, and it is very doubtful if Erdogan needed to do that to proceed further with his plans.
FB Ali
Somehow I do not think you have ever seen a false flag coup planned and executed by a head of state? That makes the planning of this disinformation operation much easier. pl
bth
Incirlik? This long after the Cold War why would there be any? It is a Turkish air base. pl
Will Reks
Well, the idea of a group of captains and majors (all that is showing thus far) thinking that they could take a couple of thousand conscripts, a few tanks and a handful of aircraft and take over Turkey is so beyond the realm of the possible that I just don’t believe it. They must have had guidance from above and it was treacherous. pl
Will Reks
Most of my life was built around “reasoned SPECULATION” and I am quite good at thinking across the gaps in data. If you don’t like that don’t bother me any more with your presence. “giving up control of your airspace?” The Turkish air force is quite large. There were only a handful of aircraft in this. pl
Bingo.
Well according to this article from December, security was being upgraded at Incirlik for the 50 B61 nuclear weapons there.
http://www.dw.com/en/reports-us-nuclear-up.grades-in-europe/a-18731756
I’d be happy for someone to tell me I misread this.
bth
Well, then we are even dumber than I would have thought. What the hell were the contingency targets supposed to be? Iran? Russia? Mindless bullshit! This is a Turkish air base. The permanent US presence there is an air base group that shares the base with the Turks and the deployed US air units there now. Essentially, the US personnel, the aircraft and the nukes are now all hostages of the sultan. Erdogan wants to trade us our hostages for Gulen? pl
Col. Lang,
“They must have had guidance from above and it was treacherous. ”
Yes, indeed. Those who took the bait were planning a response, but the trigger was rigged. They were badly duped.
It is interesting to consider the span of tayyip’s response. All major state institutions are being purged of all opposition. He could not have done this without such a pretext. Probably would have triggered some set of international sanctions against Turkey. BTW if Obama and Merkel impose economic sanctions on Turkey, they can get rid of tayyip. He is no Putin.
Ishmael Zechariah
False flag operations are always my least favorite theory but in this particular case it does look like a good fit. In addition to some of the other points made, I kept seeing this footage of a group of young soldiers in a jeep driving through a hostile crowd and one of them waiving with a big smile on his face. I found this so out of place, how could this guy be so calm. If I was part of a coup, I’d be sweating bullets and I’d have to think that all but the most psychotic would feel nervous. Also, in all of the footage, I only saw young soldiers. So we have 3,000+ Indians and no Chiefs?
Oh, if Obama reacts to Erdogan’s temporary closing of Incirlik by bailing out Turkey with a big fat aid package for our great, moderate Sunni state ally in our war against ISIS wouldn’t that be a glorious thing (sarcasm).
Frankly, I do not think that he needed to do anything like that just to proceed with his internal purges.
However, if he now makes a big switch in his foreign policy orientation (towards Russia and China, and away from the US), then it begins to sound much more plausible. Especially with reference to the military, which I believe is much more pro-American than the general public.
Point deer, call horse.
It does not matter whether this was a false flag, or merely incompetence, or perhaps a mix of both. The result is the same: Erdogan has the power he wanted; his opponents will be in prison soon; the secular Constitution of Turkey will be swept aside (we know this has always been his plan) and the modernization that Ataturk brought to the Ottomans has been rejected.
Apparently this is what the majority of Turks want for themselves.
Just a question of how long the process takes, and how other nations respond to this. I would guess that Russia will respond coldly to any Islamist resurgence, and they weren’t exactly warm to Turkey in the first place. Big question mark over how the EU will respond. The Beanheads of Brussels believe in stupid concepts like “momentum”, growing the EU by dragging in anyone and everyone… but the people of the EU are right fed up with being told that Sharia is good for them.
TTG mentioned on another thread that the carriers Eisenhower and Truman had recently departed the Med in opposite directions. Does anyone know whether they might have been recalled to Turkish shores?
tel
Yes it matters how the EU responds but they have already surrendered to the sultan once. what really matter is whether or not the US will surrender as well and allow the Sultan to pursue his goal of becoming sultan caliph. pl
Here are two articles from today (16 July) about the Incirlik airbase and U.S. military there. This one is from the Daily Sabah, and has the interesting photo of large airplanes from the U.S. Air Force and the German Luftwaffe–
http://www.dailysabah.com/nation/2016/07/16/incirlik-air-base-to-resume-operations-after-being-shortly-sealed-off-following-coup-attempt
This one is from the Stars and Stripes–
http://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/turkey-closes-air-space-over-incirlik-grounding-us-aircraft-at-base-1.419447
Each one says that the U.S. operations at the air base are using electric generators to continue to supply electric power, which they call “internal power sources”.
raven
Yes, reluctantly for lack of anyone better. This time I will vote for neither. pl
The public record tells us that there are about 100 tactical nuclear weapons of various types at the base. I recently read a document stating in detail their specs. That number is greater than anywhere else in Europe. (In total, we have kept about 300 in the European theatre, e.g. Italy, the Netherlands. I’m sure the Poles would be hospitable to a few dozen). They take taking on new significance in the context of Obama’s announced $1 trillion upgrade of our nuclear arsenal which will concentrate on smaller, more easily targeted TNWs available for war-fighting scenarios. Unfortunately, I cannot put my hands on the source. (For details on the Obama project, see “As U.S. Modernizes Nuclear Weapons, ‘Smaller’ Leaves Some Uneasy“ WILLIAM J. BROAD and DAVID E. SANGER The New York Times JAN. 11, 2016)
Walrus,
All that would also be consistent with the government being tipped off though. Perhaps that caused the planners to move before they are ready. However I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to find out that someone working for Erdogan instigated it within the military as part of a clandestine project to suss out the remaining Kemalists for targeting. Might have been a case of that project getting out of hand. WAG only, but I see a great danger in allowing it to go that far for Erdogan. What if it worked??
It smells funny to me too, I’m playing Devil’s Advocate for the moment is all.
Country Air base Number of tactical
nuclear weapons (2010)
Belgium Kleine Brogel 20
Germany Büchel 20
Italy Aviano 50
Netherlands Volkel 20
Turkey Incirlik 50-90
oofda,
Here’s one of many. What is going to happen to the moral of the Turkish army when this is how Erdogan’s follows respond/
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4829085,00.html
Look at the positive side, Turkish people, Kemalist or non-Kemalist went against the coup.
The idea is getting around. At this time, about 8:20 p.m. central time, the headline concentrator drudgereport.com has as its headline, “Did Erdogan Stage His Own Coup?”. That links to an article in the British Daily Mail newspaper website on the question–
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3693729/Did-Erdogan-STAGE-coup-based-Turkish-cleric-facing-extradition-botched-rebellion-claims-president-orchestrated-plot-justify-clampdown-civil-rights.html
At the bottom of the article is a brief video clip in which Erdogan goes to the front of a large government room and sits down to make a brief statement, and heavy irony is there, as Tayyip speaks before a large, framed photograph of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Erdogan of course says the situation is an uprising and betrayal, and refers to the “motherland”. Well, at least he did not say “homeland”, a term with which we are burdened.
Ishmael,
“if Obama and Merkel…”
Sadly, to use the American phrase, you are up the creek without a paddle on this one as Obama is a neocon who wants to use Turkey to supply the unicorns so they will destroy Syria and Merkel hasn’t the backbone to stand up to Erdogan’s refugee extortion. Perhaps if the Greeks keep the border sealed and sink a few refugee ferries but I wouldn’t count on it.
https://fas.org/blogs/security/2015/09/nuclear-insecurity/
Incirlik Air Base is the largest nuclear weapons storage site in Europe with 25 underground vaults installed inside as many protective aircraft shelters (PAS) in 1998. Each vault can hold up to four bombs for a maximum total base capacity of 100 bombs. There were 90 B61 nuclear bombs in 2000, or 3-4 bombs per vault. This included 40 bombs earmarked for deliver by Turkish F-16 jets at Balikesir Air Base and Akinci Air Base. There are currently an estimated 50 bombs at the base, or an average of 2-3 bombs in each of the 21 vaults inside the new security perimeter.
[snip]
The nuclear role of Incirlik is unique in NATO’s nuclear posture in that it is the only base in Europe with nuclear weapons that doesn’t have nuclear-capable fighter-bombers permanently present. Even though the Turkish government recently has allowed the U.S. Air Force to fly strikes from Incirlik against targets in Syria, the Turks have declined U.S. requests to permanently base a fighter wing at the base. As such, there is no designated nuclear wing with squadrons of aircraft intended to employ the nuclear bombs stored at Incirlik; in a war, aircraft would have to fly in from wings at other bases to pick up and deliver the weapons.
Babak
The sultan/caliph will be your father, I am sure. pl
Fred,
I was not counting on or asking anyone’s help. The bankrupt world view and fraudulent economic ‘policies’ of these islamist miracle workers will consign them and their “religion” to the dung-hill of ideas sooner or later. Unfortunately it will be later for quite a few innocents.
Ishmael Zechariah
I remain on the side of the constitutional & legal order; even in the case of US – in spite of her policies & strategies in Syria.
Babak
I would think that Tayyip I will re-institute the Hanafi version of Shariah with allowances for dhimmi communities to use their religious law in ecclesiastical courts for marriage cases, etc. That was the Ottoman system. their was also a commercial code based on Swiss law. perhaps he will keep that for practical business. pl
Fred,
BTW, this just in:
“the US FAA has blacklisted all flights between the US and Istanbul until further notice:
Per the Federal Aviation Administration’s notice to airmen (NOTAM) dated July 15, 2016, U.S. airline carriers are prohibited from flying to or from Istanbul and Ankara airports. All airline carriers, regardless of country of registry, are prohibited from flying into the United States from Turkey either directly or via third country.”
Sanctions?
Ishmael Zechariah
“Turkish people?” I never saw more than a few hundred in the streets. All men. In Tunisia, there were almost as many women as men.
Also, were they demonstrating a commitment to democracy or a commitment to an authoritarian Islamist regime?
interesting tweet from Furious Kurd regarding the Turkish soldier beheaded by Erdogan’s bashi-bazouks:
https://twitter.com/Furiouskurd/status/754272619382398976
I suspect that none of the TV commentators or think tank ‘experts’ have any real grasp of what happened, why and at this time. Now that the putsch has failed, we’ll probably never know. Those you do know will have compelling incentives to keep their mouths shut, while Erdogan and his supporters may learn the truth but only parts of it will ever come out since they have their own narrative to sell. As for the CIA and NSA, there is good reason for skepticism. The former has no assets or demonstrated competence for fomenting anything of this kind – to say the least. In addition, there is no reason to think that they foresaw it happening since they have missed everything else of consequence throughout the region for at least the past 15 years. On this latter score, the NSA is too preoccupied digging through its ever expanding haystack and attending conferences in search of the ultimate surveillance gadgetry to pay attention to what counts. Again, the record (at home as well as abroad) supports that conclusion.
Yes, yes, Always Look on the Bright Side of Life…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlBiLNN1NhQ
More general question, how many of the hundreds of US bases around the world do not have “backup autonomy” for supplies of any kind, electricity or other and are thus under threat of whimsical idiocy from the locals?
Does seem as if a small clique were baited to do this. Just so few people involved.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/spiegel-interview-a-1103192.html
An interesting interview with Flynn, foreign press interviews tend to be more revealing.
jld
There is back up generator power in all these places but you can run on generator power only so long. As for supplies there are always stored emergency supplies but facilities located on the territory of friendly powers of necessity depend on open lines of supply in and out of the country. In the case of INCIRLIK AFB the major port of Adana is nearby. pl
The history of the Game of Nations is replete with examples of shrewd statesmen creating their own opposition groups, only to roll them up in due time, neatly, like fly paper, once enough flies have stuck to the glutinous mat.
As I recall, Sun Tzu has a section on this in his Art of War. The Czar of Russia created fake revolutionary groups to flush out communists; and then the Soviets created bogus anti-communist fronts to flush out reactionaries — “The Trust” in Russia, “WIN” in the Ukraine, and similar groups in places like Poland and Albania. One of Kim Philby’s jobs for the KGB was to assure MI6 and CIA that these groups were genuine so that we would parachute brave patriots into the monster’s laughing jaws. Chinese human rights activists say the the security organs manipulated and infiltrated the Tiananmen Square movement to create one dissident neck for one state leash for one public strangling. Francis Walsingham Papist undergrounds for Elizabeth I during the Counter-Reformation, drawing English Jesuits out of their “priest holes” for drawing, quartering, and beatification. And Adolf Hitler only discovered his talent for public speaking when he was asked to join a state-sponsored “right wing nationalist group” in 1919 Munich, for the purpose of keeping tabs on all those Volkisch nut-jubs; truly a case of the fox guarding the cuckoo’s coop.
One could multiply examples. But in my experience, most Americans find the whole concept of state provocations “too complicated” and “too speculative” to credit or digest. They are like Samuel Johnson who kicks the rock and says, “Thus do I refute Berkeley.” If it wouldn’t happen here, it couldn’t happen there.
“Reasoning across the gaps in the data” is a nice phrase. That was once the task of the humanities, and of intelligence services. Sadly, that is what most social scientists, academics, policy and intelligence analysts are now paid not to do. Our colleges and universities have essentially become inference-prevention factories.
Not because of sanctions. The security at the airports were breached and have to be reestablished before flights can depart.
Incirlik Turkish base commander plus ten detained.
Another too convenient coincidence about the timing of the coup was that it kicked off before the Friday evening call to prayer. It couldn’t have been a better opportunity for Erdogan’s own to call the faithful to the streets. It worked perfectly. This whole coup reminds me of the FBI’s heavy use of sting operations to arrest would-be terrorists… complete false flag set-ups.
Pat Lang
My idea would be that the coup was either real and infiltrated or the military equivalent of a sting operation.
What I mean is Erdigan did know that part of his military was illoyal to their commander in chief, ie Erdogan, and to find out who it is he let a coup attempt happen, either as the idea of illoyal parts of the military, or as a sting operation, where Erdogan loyalists kind of seduced the suspicious officers in the military to try to stage a coup. And, of course, the seducers promised the suspicious officers all kind of big support for the coup, but when the big day finally arrvied and the notice of taking power was read out on TV, surprise, surprise, the big support for the coup didn’t come as promised and instead the illoyal officers – who outed themselves by taking part in a coup – got arrested. It wouldn’t be a false flag op then, but the equivalent of a classical sting operation like police units do them every day all over the world.
What you think about the idea of the coup being the military equvalent of a sting operation?
I’d venture to say that the way Erdogan and his party are subverting, neutering, and/or taking over state and other public institutions, on the way to control of the country, is Hitlerian.
Also, what rationale explains the storing of “50 to 90” nuclear weapons at Incirlik? Could it be simple inertia from the cold war or could the Turks have required it as a condition for continued use of the base?
WPFIII
Bandolero
I think you are playing with words. “False Flag” in the intelligence business means something that is represented as being different than it really is. For example, if I want you to work for me as a spy against your government and I tell you I am Australian when I am really something else, that is a false flag recruitment. My intelligence friends are calling this a false flag operation. You can call it what you want. pl
William Fitzgerald
I vote for “inertia.” pl
That’s not a “sultan” parallel.
What a hot mess this is turning into for those who don’t like the world edging towards seriously bad outcomes
Pat
Thanks for your reply. I didn’t realize that the terms “fraud” and “false flag” would include such scenarios of an “infiltrated” coup or a “sting operation.” So I learned that now.
Anyway the options “Let it happen on purpose” and “Make it happen on pupose” seem to be in effect quite close together to me as opposed to a genuine “Surprise” against Erdogan. I don’t think Erdogan was surprised – he seems to have been well prepared.
Regarding the topic at hand, it is incredibly sad to see what is happening to secular Turkey. What are the forces that have pushed such a large contingent of the people towards more militant Islamism? Or have other groups fragmented, migrated, or otherwise diminished in number?
Regarding Obama, I think it was completely reasonable to vote for Obama in 2012. Voting for Romney was a clear vote for war with Iran. At least Obama had doubts, and I believe he was the main reason we didn’t force war with Iran and that he prevented Israel from drawing us into one. Romney had no doubts and communicated that very clearly. I did not vote for him or either candidate in 2008, but then, I was unaware how bad McCain was. I thought he was sane. I suppose picking Palin should have been my clue otherwise.
In broad terms, how is the US to allow or disallow the Sultan to pursue his goal of becoming sultan caliph? He has a formidable combination of populist power, nationalism and it would seem, a subjugated, but very powerful military/ internal security apparatus at his disposal. What am I missing?
I think ownership of the nukes is split with the host country.
Also well timed if US carriers are out of the immediate area.
bth
That is not correct. Ownership of the nukes is In NO WAY shared with the “host” NATO country. The nukes are altogether under US control until an order is issued from the NCA (US) to release them to the Turks (in this case). Positive control over arming is maintained to that point, but the fact remains that these nukes are on a TURKISH air base within Erdogan’s country. pl
505th PIR
you have answered your own question. We have little leverage until we recognize that Turkey’s NATO membership is a vestige of the Cold War and it should end. pl
The 2 main opposition parties came out against the coup as well.
That would be another dead-end, for Turkey as well as the Sunni-dom. There were good reasons that the Ottoman Empire crashed and burned – it could not cope with the realities that has been created by the European Christians in the world.
How does one deal with an electorate that, for the most part, believes in its bones that the power disparity between Islamdom and the Euro-Americans or Russians is due to deviance from Sharia – in effect God’s punishment for being insufficiently observant?
In my view, the Electorate has a right to be wrong and one can neither live other people’s history for them nor protect them against the consequences of their own actions; in Turkey, or in Iran or in US.
Yup. And that would nicely explain why Erdogan’s blaming Fetullah Gülen, who’s a CIA stooge. He wants to incite his AKP base against the US and NATO to justify switching sides in the new cold war. Turkey is now with the Eurasian project.
Big winners: Russia, China, Iran, Syria.
Big losers: US, Europe, KSA, Qatar.
Andrew Korybko did up a nice piece of geopolitical analysis on the fake ‘coup’: http://thesaker.is/andrew-korybko-analysis-of-turkish-coup-attempt/
Seamus Padraig
Do you have any actual evidence 1 – That Gulen is a CIA stooge? 2 – that the US set up the “coup” or does that line of “thought’ just give you a warm, fuzzy feeling? “The aftermath of the failed US-directed and Gulen-inspired coup attempt is already making itself clear, with Prime Minister Yildirim stating that Turkey might reinstate the death penalty to deal with the plotters. This statement is just as symbolic as it is substantial, since not only does it disprove allegations that Erdogan “planned this” himself for some Machiavellian purpose” How does it “disprove” anything? Is it because the EU does not allow the death penalty and this means that
Turkey is turning away from the West? Well, duh, the US allows the death penalty. I think that Turkey under Erdogan IS turning away from the West but this drivel “proves” nothing. pl
Seamus,
Erdogan is an Islamist. They are enemies of Syria and Russia.
My own take, going mostly from shit happens and general history, is the following one:
1: Coupist start plotting. Initially lowish level, slowly expanding, getting their ducks in order etc.
2: Coupists believe they have been found out before they had even remotly completed their preparations. They then made the decision to roll the dice rather then get arrested.
3: Erdogan was initially a bit surprised. I think he had a “list of likely coup suspects” ready, as well as a somewhat longer list of “things I am going to do if I defeat a coup attempt”.
It may well be that the actual coupers didnt even contact Erdogans likely coup suspects very much, figuring that these were under observation anyway.
Coup rolled out as it happened, meaning it failed quite strongly. Erdogan has carte blanche to do a bunch of stuff he wanted to do anyway.
I do wonder if his public hate for Gulen is actually some clever obfuscating stupidity. By pretending to be focused on Gulen, he may well hope to blindside and catch remaining Kemalists in MHP and the army, the Kurds, as well as “middle class leftists” from Gezi park unprepared.
Also, Erdogan supporters claim that the Russian Jet downing pilot was a coupist and got killed(earlier rumors had him captured), as well as insinuating that the coupists were behind that “poisoning of Russo-Turkish relations”.
The latter is certainly a lie, and Russia knows this, but they can opt to publically believe a lie if it suits their long term interests.
I dont think the reapproachment is long term though. Erdogans priority is to put pressure on the US for various concessions. He cannot put this pressure on the US if he is under pressure from Russia. Still, I think the Kremlin will indulge him. Even if mostly to perhaps drive a wedge between the USA and some of its most odious allies.
bth,
I do not think so. The security systems at Ataturk and Esenboga are quite comprehensive and were immediately re-activated. I personally know that these airports were back in operation 12 hr after the June bombing as well. Domestic flights are now back in place.
This NOTAM does not hurt the US carriers. OTOH THY flies 10+ return flights w/ heavies to USA every day. It is one of their prime routes and a very important feeder into their connections. If this keeps up a week, THY will be damaged. If it lasts until 8/15 it will go bankrupt. I do not think you can neglect the economic component. My guess: once the blockade of Incirlik is lifted THY flights will resume.
Ishmael Zechariah
A.I. Schmelzer,
It was the speed in his decision to blame Gulin that raised a red flag for me. A man who was taken by surprise would be too concerned with identifying the true perps to play games IMO. Either the man’s inner street-rat is very quick or he’s had some time to think about it, I reckon.
IZ, while I have noticed tayyip’s activities over here, and the masses of people he draws, I missed this institution. But for some time now his German spokesperson’s are all over the place.
Another type of “we-are-the-people” democratic force like Pegida, maybe its Turkish AKP supportive Janusface: The European Union of Turkish Demokrats-.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pegida
http://uetd.info/
One of its representatives a lawyer from the Rhineland told a German audience and thus me today, that Gulen is both a parallel “Zionist” society in Turkey and supposedly considered antisemitic by German intelligence. Hard to wrap my head around that.
Very, very peculiar to watch these people.
Google translate of the German Wikipedia entry of the party:
https://translate.google.de/translate?hl=de&sl=de&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fde.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FUnion_Europ%C3%A4isch-T%C3%BCrkischer_Demokraten
As more information trickles out, in my opinion, the coup looks like a badly planned amateur hour, thoroughly penetrated by MIT and allowed to run its inevitable course.
I have only circumstantial evidence for my opinion but I draw on history. Hitler detected and penetrated most attempts on his life andGovernment. As Mark Reibling points out, the Soviets were masters of the fake revolutionary movement. Such events as coups are not easy to organise, except perhaps in very Third world countries.
My circumstantial evidence is that:
(a) There was allegedly an increased police presence in Istanbul 12 hours before the attempt. (Telegraph tourist eye witness report). So loyal resources were ready to respond.
(b) The failure to kill, capture or neutralise Erdogan. According to WSJ/Reuters, Erdogan missed being caught at his hotel by “troops rappelling down from helicopters (special forces?). He missed them “by minutes”, not impossible except this was during an evening when you might suppose had retired for the night.
© The miraculous night flight, in a Turkish Government Gulfstream II from the holiday resort to Ankara (?). Since when is a Gulfstream and crew able to be assembled that quickly, and a fighter escort to boot, in the middle of the night. Then of course is the question why wasn’t it shot down, begging of course the question of the intervening time from leaving the hotel to boarding the aircraft. The plotters do not seem to have had plans (b), © and (d) to pin Erdogan in place
(d) Then there is the sudden appearance of highly belligerent “supporters”, the arrest lists, and immediate actions taken by Erdogan that look to me to be preplanned.
Shades of the attempts on Hitlers life. It would be comic if it wasn’t tragic.
For what it’s worth, Sputnik Headline: “42 Helicopters Missing in Turkey Sparking Concerns of a Second Coup Attempt”
http://sputniknews.com/news/20160717/1043162524/helicopters-turkey-coup-erdogan-weapons.html?utm_source=https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2F3Kj4hwY222&utm_medium=short_url&utm_content=bGtf&utm_campaign=URL_shortening