The COVID-19 peak death rate occurred the week of April 11- 18



"But there is a graph here that if I explain this properly, it’ll make sense to you. This is from the Centers for Disease Control. And it is death counts attributable to COVID-19 through July 11th. The week ending July 11th, which is the most recent date for data. They run about, you know, a week to two weeks behind here.

So throw the chart up. This is by age. All sexes by age. So if you look at the top line, the red line, the very top, that is the week ending April 11th. You can’t see this on the chart. Go ahead and put the chart up there, Brian, switch it over. The top line is red. You can’t even probably tell that. But, trust me. The top-most line is red, and it occurs on April the 11th. That is the peak death rate, and it’s probably about 6,000. I don’t know in what interval that this thing is reporting.

Probably… Eh, it’s in a week. The key is to go all the way over to the right side. You see the peak of death rates was April the 11th. It isn’t now. The peak death rate was April 11. That red line is people 85 years and older. The line under it is people 75 to 84. That’s the yellow line. The blue line underneath that is people 65 to 74. We’re under 4,000 now in a week. So the top line is people 85 and older.

If you go to the… This is where I’m not gonna… There are two reds, but you can’t tell the difference in them. Just trust me. Let’s move to the far-right side of the chart. That’s July 11th, and you’ll see that the death rate is not even 500, right now, per week — CDC — in all ages, in all demographics, says the CDC. We’re not at peak death rate. The peak death rate was April the 11th to April the 18th."  Limbaugh


But, what would Fauci say?  pl

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48 Responses to The COVID-19 peak death rate occurred the week of April 11- 18

  1. scott s. says:

    I see now we are being encouraged to ignore “death rate” as unimportant. What we are told to panic about is a higher incidence of “positives” among population under 40 years of age. This population apparently doesn’t have as bad an outcome (hospitalization/death) and that’s “bad” because they don’t get contact traced and thus have “community spread”.
    I just love how AP/NYT and local journos all quote seemingly random “experts” with no discussion of just what their “expertise” consists of, other than perhaps a credential (and the relevance of the credential to the “expert statement” (more correctly opinion) is never provided).
    At least Fauci has some standing.

  2. turcopolier says:

    Am I right in thinking that the peak was in the midst of Cuomo’s butchery in the nursing homes?

  3. Eric Newhill says:

    Yes. You are thinking right about Cuomo murdering the elderly that cost the state so much money – many having the homes and medical treatment paid for by Medicaid (Medicare only pays for 30 days). Only it wasn’t just Cuomo it was also Witmer in Michigan and Murphy in New Jersey. They killed off the costly elderly and got the bonus of more deaths to raise the fear of the virus and gain subsequent control over the lives of citizens + via twisted logic, try to give Trump a black eye. Those govs are are morally sick people. It is a no brainer, if you care about the elderly, to not place people with what you believe is a deadly highly contagious virus in homes full of elderly infirm people. I mean what is there to even consider or weigh about that decision?
    Had those murderers handled the nursing homes correctly (like Florida did) the virus would have been a lot less deadly.
    Btw, with regard to schools re-opening, note that the line of the graph for school and college age people is basically synonymous with the X-axis; meaning they didn’t die from the virus even at its peak lethality.

  4. Deap says:

    We are told because a single covid virus will kill any teacher who re-enters the classroom, you must turn over all your assets to the teachers union for their chosen re-distribution, or your children will never return to a classroom ever again. Oh yes, and vote for Batty Biden and Chipmunk Kamala in November, or else.

  5. Deap says:

    I can see why they delayed Tax Day until July 15, because coinciding with Covid Peak Death Day on April 15 would be a regrettable death and taxes association.

  6. BillWade says:

    You might be Colonel, if CT was doing what NY was doing. Here in Florida (where we did not put covid patients in nursing homes) we’ve had about 5400 deaths compared to CT’s 4500 deaths but we’re triple their population.

  7. ked says:

    The high population states in the NE have flattened their curve of death. The recalcitrant / refusenik states are S & W, & have lower populations (or at least, lower pop density).
    Thus, the large-pop peak death rate states (of the past) are no longer contributing much to the national total. Refuseniks are doing all they can to make up the difference… just give ‘em a bit more time… they are slow but determined.
    Don’t despair, we should hit a quarter-mil before the 2nd Wave.

  8. turcopolier says:

    You can’t read a simple graph from CDC? “Don’t despair, we should hit a quarter-mil before the 2nd Wave.” Wishful thinking.

  9. Bobo says:

    As with all charts they tell you a story but unfortunately its never fully accurate. Looking at peak week it is showing 15K for that week. A big number but then looking at the most recent week it indicates less than 1k when there were over 2k. The present week will come in over 3k. The difference in age groupings does indicate a truer story.
    Regarding the esteemed Doctor I’m sure he will indicate that more horror is coming to feed the beast that is making more and more people anxious running to their own Doctors for the truth and some more happy pills. Whoever, said that Fauci only presents a view of a Pandemist not a view that encompasses the whole for the benefit this nation, was an honest man.

  10. turcopolier says:

    What is the source of your numbers? The graph does not have that fine a focus. Limbaugh got his numbers from CDC.
    How about yours? You DO recognize the trend?

  11. Bobo says:
    The trend is obvious. Keep in mind total world deaths on 4/18/2020 was 143,996 vs 427,259 on 7/11/2020 or a gain of 283,263. Yesterday in the USA there were 546 and today another 456 (so far) thus this virus is not completely flattening out. The age disparity is the most value in the chart presented.
    Probably my aversion to charts is my main thrust but this virus has a long ways to go before petering out and everybody has been wrong more than a few times in their prognostications.

  12. CK says:

    @ The Colonel
    In the article, towards the end, Gov. Murphy is quoted as saying he wants a post-mortem on the handling of the nursing home situation in the same sense as the post-mortem for 9/11.
    So what he wants is redactions and cover ups and blame shifting.
    Same shit same millenia

  13. Jim says:

    To know what Fauci [don’t wear a mask it don’t help; wear a mask it helps] would say, let’s look at how Aristotle would help us elucidate this answer.
    Q: What can one conclude from [the mouth of] the liar [Fauci]?
    A: Answer: nothing
    Absolutely Nothing.
    And on this basis, from his mouth, our national “pandemic” “strategy” was thus formulated, from Mr. Nothing aka Fauci.
    And onto more black humor, and the wearing a mask as virtue signalling — since they can only slow down by at most ten minutes any disease transmission of the novel coronvirus, there is this “gem” spoken by someone who apparently believes the mask kool aid? I D K . . . –and for me at least, his essay, Attorney Jonathan Turley, was funny to read, irrespective of whether that was his intent:
    [[There is a new form of protests sweeping across the country as individuals put on anti-Mask masks to defy mandatory mask rules. The anti-masks are made of thin material, mesh or even crochet and are advertised as having no protective qualities for Covid-19. The question is whether they are legal. They appear to be so.]]

  14. ked says:

    First Wave isn’t over – CDC’s is all backward-looking “1st Wave” data. Accurate? maybe. Sound basis for projections? nor so sure.
    2nd Wave hasn’t started.
    I’m praying for vaccines to hit sooner rather than later, despite my cynicism about lousy political leaders & exceptionally cranky population.

  15. ked says:

    I should’ve included this link. It provides a decent overview of 1st & 2nd Wave dynamics, makes comparisons to the 1918 pandemic & has some charts too.

  16. turcopolier says:

    “Yesterday in the USA there were 546 and today another 456” Source?

  17. Jim says:

    The CDC’s own data show vaccines to prevent influenza are about 50 percent effective, with some years a little better and many years also worse.
    This despite decades and decades of “research.” And millions and millions of dead.
    Let’s not pretend this is a panacea.
    Safe vaccines would be a good thing; but we never hear the word safe precede the word vaccine, and this is on purpose.
    Some years, in the US, flu vaccines are actually totally worthless.
    Like last year.
    This was the case with a strain of the H3N2 flu –3C.3a clade.
    For those 9 to 49 years old, the vaccine was actually and totally totally totally worthless. Zero percent effective.
    And that does not stop those that should know better from writing silly headlines:
    “Last Season’s Influenza Virus Changed Personalities”
    So we have vaccines changing personalities? This is at the heart of the sickness over vaccine propaganda.
    A vaccine can come down with Schizophrenia?
    Or worse, a multi personality disorder? You don’t say.
    An overall effective rate of 5 percent.
    Last year.
    H3N2 flu — 3C.3a clade.
    Laws do not allow consumers to sue these criminal drug pushers/makers for doling out poison and calling it a medicine, calling it a vaccine. This is also on purpose
    What would Fauci say?

  18. Some Guy says:

    Fauci would probably say that death certificate based reporting (which this is) has significant lag, The associated tech notes say even 8 weeks out it’s only approximately 75% complete – and completeness is assessed by year over year comparison of total deaths, which might be a touch tricky to assess if one has significant excess mortality and reporting channels get congested.

  19. Eric Newhill says:

    There is no way that anything like an accurate tally of today’s or yesterdays deaths is possible. If you go to the CDC, they consistently caveat their data with the statement that recent month’s data is either incomplete due to data gathering and compilation lags of up to two months, or they are employing some kind of estimation/prediction.
    Furthermore, There is no way that anyone can understand the true cause of death unless they are spending some time looking at the deceased’s medical claims with all diagnoses and procedures and then looking back at the deceased’s medical history. No way. Because I can do that, I know that people who are having heart attacks, renal failure, cancer and so on and so forth are being reported as covid deaths if they tested positive – or even if they didn’t test positive and died of pneumonia like so many elderly and/or very sick people do.
    I am afraid that you, like so many, are succumbing to a myth and associated ginned up hysteria.

  20. Eric Newhill says:

    You are mightily determined to reinforce the covid hysteria.
    First, the Kaiser Foundation went full blown leftist about a decade ago. They have been promoting radical ideas using selective and misleading data and people quote them because the name used to mean something.
    Second, who cares about infection rates (which what they are using as “evidence”)? The vast majority of those infected won’t even know they “have it”.
    The only data that counts is hospitalizations for covid only and deaths from covid only; meaning reasonably healthy people being admitted or dying with no other serious conditions that could or would kill them. Notice that those statistics are never mentioned. Never. Why not? Do you not think them at least relevant if not key?

  21. blue peacock says:

    I am willing to bet that if the Democrats win the November election, then the Wuhan virus will disappear from the front pages.

  22. Bobo says:

    There are a number of tracking sites keeping track of hospitalizations, deaths and testing results with each having slightly different numbers but all within the ballpark. It’s obvious those differences are in the algorithms but the ones I see of value are the one previously mentioned and the State of Florida daily report. Now with all the stories out there of misreporting of results, differences in deciding death causes and hospitalization reasons cannot amount to more than 5-7% thus what is presented is trends and presently they are on an upswing, I’m sure you agree. As to death causes the government has skewed those numbers by providing extra funds to call it Covid, that needs to be quickly cleaned up.
    Succumbing to the myth, come on, as I’m far from that and more a skeptic. The reality is that we are seeing an 8-10% positive test result and extrapolating that to a population tells us what will be seen over the next year or so as this virus is far from over.
    You have better access to numbers than most here correct me where I’m wrong.

  23. Michael D McCarthy says:

    I’m not sure just what this chart is supposed to convey except that peak death rate was in the middle of April and that the most recent data shows that the death rate has decreased significantly.
    Mr Limbaugh’s assertion that the Jul 11th weekly death count is less than 500. This is wrong. CDC data shows that there were 2097 deaths during that week, not less than 500.

  24. Fred says:

    No, they’ll extend the ’emergency’ to restructure the government at all levels by executive decree and continue to bankrupt any independent businesses that don’t conform to the new order by various economic shutdowns. It will be an extinction event for the middle and upper middle classes not employed by government, multinationals, or conforming corporations.

  25. Eric Newhill says:

    You’re missing the point.
    Yes. I do have access to better data, much better than what the CDC has. However you don’t have to trust me. 10% to 20% of the population has been infected all along. Look at the studies that were done months ago. Fairly random samples in California and New York City and a few other places INCONUS and OCONUS. They pretty much all showed 10-% to 20% of the population with the virus. I’ll repeat, those studies were done months ago.
    Once again, it doesn’t matter how many people have the virus. What counts is *who* has the virus. If young healthy people have the virus, there is no problem. If the elderly/infirm have the virus, there are going to be some ICU admissions and deaths.
    All you are seeing now is 1) More young people infected because they decided they’d had enough of the lockdowns 2) more “cases” because more people are getting tested 3) More hospitalizations because anyone in the hospital who tests positive is being called a covid admission, even if they are in the hospital for an unrelated reason; just as anyone who dies and has covid is being called a covid death, even if the person had serious and fatal underlying conditions.
    There is a lot of noise in the data you are being fed.

  26. turcopolier says:

    Michael McCarthy
    Newhill is an executive with a major health insurance company. He doesn’t seem to think much of CDC data.

  27. Eric Newhill says:

    Michael McCarthy,
    Here is a link to the CDC data.
    See for yourself – Week ending July 11, 2020 reported as of July 16, 2020, there are 1,235 deaths attributed to Covid, influenza or Pneumonia. I would say that, as things sit today, it’s obvious that Rush is correct and your source is not. Did you go to the CDC, or are you repeating what someone said the CDC says. Because there is a lot of fake news out there. Also, sometimes the CDC has different figures on different pages.
    Of course, I don’t see the methodology for these figures at the link. Maybe the data isn’t complete, maybe they have applied some factors to arrive at an estimate of what it will look like when all of the data comes in.

  28. J says:

    Good news!
    If all the trials and research are successful, they’ll be able to downgrade the virus into nothing more than a common cold. This will be WITHOUT VACCINES, they won’t be necessary.
    Two researchers at Hebrew University in Jerusalem along with a medical colleague of theirs here in the states have been working using a drug already approved by the FDA, a drug used in lowering cholesterol.
    It’s called TRICOR.
    In their studies so far, when TRICOR is used against the COVID Virus, it basically takes away it’s ability survive in the lungs, it starves the virus, and a starving emaciated virus whimpers into nothing more than a common cold. TRICOR robs the Virus of its needed food source — fat in the lungs. Robbed of that fat, the virus then becomes a pipsqueak to what it once was.

  29. Deap says:

    As of today, Nancy Pelosi wants to call this the Trump Virus. Therefore, I guess it is time for Trump to take a victory lap, having finally taken this thing down.
    Bad timing, Nancy. You usually don’t make forced errors but you walked into this one big time. Were you not just handing our gourmet ice cream during you own April Peak experience?

  30. Deap says:

    Bingo, what did you do during the height of The Great Covid War on April 15, Nancy?
    …..”Pelosi Shows Off Her $25,000 Refrigerators and $13 Tubs of Gourmet Ice Cream as Americans Stand in Line at Food Banks (VIDEO)
    By Cristina Laila Published April 15, 2020 at 3:01pm” …….

  31. frankie p says:

    Colonel Lang, Thank you for that link to the COVID-19 Provisional Death Counts graph from the CDC. More interesting information that disproves the media fantasy panic-mongering.
    I’ve followed the Worldometer website for days. It currently reports that the US has 1,994,723 active cases. Of these active cases, just 16,720 are serious/critical. What does that mean to you? To me, it means that well under 1% of all active cases are serious or critical. In addition, I would note that as the overall active cases increase, the number of serious/critical cases have NOT increased. When the total number of active cases was 1.6 million, the serious/critical cases were 16,000. Now with nearly 2 million active cases, the serious/critical cases have not reached 17,000. I would venture the opinion that the virus is losing virulence with generational spread, as coronaviruses are known to do. Massive testing of completely asymptomatic patients is madness.

  32. akaPatience says:

    I can see why they delayed Tax Day until July 15, because coinciding with Covid Peak Death Day on April 15 would be a regrettable death and taxes association.
    Deap, that is a truly golden observation. And SO funny!!!

  33. Fred says:

    “deaths attributed to Covid, influenza or Pneumonia”
    That’s one way to gin up all the deaths, mingle them all together. Just don’t provide a benchmark of data from 2019 or any other prior year, and certainly don’t remind people of the total number of thier fellows who die daily from all other causes.

  34. BillWade says:

    Some more relevant numbers:
    Florida: population 21.5 million covid deaths 5206
    New York: population 19.5 million covid deaths 25,048
    Our Florida governor catches hell, Cuomo gets praised.

  35. Eric Newhill says:

    Due to insomnia induced by consuming Turkish coffee after 5 in the afternoon, I was able to navigate the poorly designed CDC webpage to find some data that supports one more of my points.
    Note that only 8.3% of covid admissions (tested positive) have no known serious underlying condition.
    FYI – The “metabolic disorders” in the table would be primarily diabetes.
    The elderly/infirm should be informed that they should quarantine themselves and nursing homes should be protected – and the rest of should be able to enjoy a fully open economy, educations system and travel.

  36. Christian J. Chuba says:

    death rate linking something from Limbaugh’s site is irresistable clickbait to me
    Yes the peak was in April, an atrocious 5,500 (approx from graph) but July 11 is very close to the bottom before it resumed a noticeable uptrend
    This represents the data differently because it’s hard to find graphs with the timelines you want using the exact same representation but it is comparing apples to apples by using deaths per 1M.
    35% non-geezer deaths
    Regarding Limbaugh’s article I was surprised by the high number of below 65 yr old deaths. At peak we had 2,000 deaths of people below 65 vs 5,500 total deaths. I am using 65 by making Social Security recipients my demarcation point. Sorry if geezer offends anyone. I feel like a geezer and I am close to achieving chronological geezerhood.
    By the time we catch up to the S.E. Asians in civic response we will have a vaccine.

  37. Eric Newhill says:

    And Florida’s population is older. So the Cuomo v DeSantis effect is truly even of even greater magnitude.

  38. Keith Harbaugh says:

    BillWade made a really great point above with his NY/FL comparison.
    I have two related questions;
    1. Can anyone provide a reference which explains WHY NY had such a high fatality rate from COVID?
    (Paging Eric Newhill)
    2. Of the NY deaths from COVID, what percentage were Jewish, versus the Jewish percentage in the overall population?
    My reason for asking the second question is that there were several articles in the NYT which stressed how severely Covid had affected a) Brooklyn and b) the Hasidic Jewish community.
    Since the problems in New York state are being used as a Boogeyman to frighten us all, I think we deserve to know those answers.

  39. Eric Newhill says:

    Cristian Chuba,
    Your link sources data from the European CDC, whatever that is. More importantly, there is a note on the US line on the graph that says the little “spike” you refer to is probably due to earlier deaths being added recently to the US tally. Based on that note (don’t know how you missed it) it seems to me that the Euro CDC is counting deaths by the week they were added to the tally, not the week the deaths actually occurred; basically rendering the graph useless for the purpose you are trying to fit it to. As I keep saying, there is no way that anyone (even me) has access to complete and accurate deaths, hospitalizations, etc for the current week. That data must be reported and gathered and that takes time.
    Also, I see where some of the other Limbaugh critics are getting their figures. It seems to be here:
    Well what you are seeing in the first column (all deaths involving covid) are any deaths where the deceased had a covid diagnosis. Read the notes below the data. The notes clearly state that the first column of figures is deaths “with covid” – literally anyone who died and happened to have covid. Heart attack and had covid? Counted in the first column. Hit by a bus and had covid? Counted.
    The other columns in the table are confusing. The CDC is obviously a collection of cryptic bean counters and not real analysts. They are not clear what they are trying to parse out or why, but it appears to me they are trying to show deaths with covid that were *likely* actually killed by covid because of the diagnoses and the symptoms.

  40. Eric Newhill says:

    Keith Harbaugh,
    Other than Cuomo’s evil nursing home policy, I really don’t know. I might hazard a guess that there are many elderly and infirm people living in tight quarters. I don’t know anything about Hasidic Jewish culture in NYC. There is probably an explanation in their lifestyle and demographics that ties in to elderly, infirm and not social distancing when elderly and infirm. Maybe they have some kind of care services for their elderly/infirm from within their own community that doesn’t adhere to proper medical guidelines.

  41. TonyL says:

    “The other columns in the table are confusing. The CDC is obviously a collection of cryptic bean counters and not real analysts.”
    I could not agree more. The way they present the data is quite confusing. So probably the best way to visualize their data is to look at the total number of Excess Deaths (regardless of the cause of deaths).
    For the period of Jan 1 to July 11, the Excess Deaths is about 140K.
    And also the Weekly Excess Deaths, which show the trend, has been consitently averaging about 52K for the last 5 weeks ending July 11. This Weekly Excess Deaths number is also confusing (but at least we can see the trend to be up or down).

  42. Eric Newhill says:

    I saw that data too in my insomniac state. I don’t trust it either and think the CDC is misrepresenting what they are supposed to be showing, though I agree that, ideally, it is a good way to look at the situation. I have proprietary excess death data that is showing a far less severe figure.
    One caveat, regardless of source, is that people are dying due to lack of medical care because care is has not been accessible because of covid restrictions. Another is suicides, drug ODs and that kind of thing. On the other side of the coin, there are fewer motor vehicles crashes, etc.

  43. Jim says:

    For what it’s worth, check this out, by Dr. Allan S. Cunningham a retired pediatrician.
    It is European data comparing proportion of those 65+ that took influenza vaccine, versus those dying from COVID-19. Death rates from May of this year; flu shots no later than 2018.
    I will look at this data more closely and perhaps see if there are different age groups to compare to, and see if I can find US data too.
    This data shows a fairly strong correlation between taking flu shot and getting killed by COVID-19. As always proceed with caution with any data; I am not “vouching” for this but will explore this particular aspect more.
    I am intrigued by it. But proceed with caution. Linear regression has been much mis used . . . .

  44. ked says:

    – Hysteria is not my thing, nor is ad hominem.
    – Your statement about KNS is an ideological critique. You may be conflating medical & ideological issues. It’s going around.
    – “who cares about infection rates?” Epidemiologists? btw, people die outside hospitals.

  45. Eric Newhill says:

    Kaiser “data” is like Rumsfeld/Wolfowitz and team telling us about all them WMD in Iraq. They are the ones confusing ideology and medical/insurance issues.
    Yes, epidemiologists. I am beginning to believe that epidemiology is some kind of dismal and largely irrelevant science. Understanding societal health situations should be left to the real pro analysists in insurance companies.
    The CDC can’t even seem to put together a coherent report, clearly define terminology or write up a brief with supporting facts and other evidence. Their web page is terrible to navigate and it’s all bean disjointed counting with all kinds of incompletely explained caveats. That is not analysis and actionable information.
    Also, they simply do not have access to the data they need to develop a clear picture of the situation. Only insurance companies have that. The lack of data is reflected in the shortcomings I note.

  46. SomeGuy says:

    Graph looks pretty different now. I hope for your nation’s sake the instrumentation is sensitive enough that directionality is starting to reverse, but given the demographic shifts and behavioural reporting I wouldn’t count on it.

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