(These are ours now …)
“…if Mohammed bin Salman and his family wish to save their kingdom, it is better to start talking to the Houthis immediately. Otherwise it is only a matter of time before another attack by Ansarullah leads to the complete collapse and ruin of the House of Saud and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.”
IMO, it would be good to see the collapse of the House of Saud. That could end a major sponsor of jihadism.
Hopefully it will also put neoconism in the ER.
When war goes full blown scale, the gas prices will go up which may erase a lot of popularity points for Trump. The owners of gas guzzlers mostly identify as Trump’s voters and it would challenge their identity if they were forced into making peace with hybrid or electric cars.
the Saudi royals and the offspring MbS are bad enough. Still, I have a hunch that what may replace them will not necessarily be “nicer”. Imagine that oil and money in the hands of Al Quaeda or ISIS types?
And if it came to that, Saudi royals would likely and naturally take their private jets or yachts and flee to destitute places of utter poverty, like Monaco, London, Paris, New York, Washington, Florida, Switzerland or the Bermudas (where the Bermuda triangle may just come in handy).
It would certainly be a Good start.
I highlighted the following portions to call out that the rebellion which controls 80% of the populated areas (when do they get to be called a regime?) have significant elements of the Yemeni army and including the navy. I hate that the Neocons managed to glue ‘Iranian backed’ to every reference to their name. To the average person, it makes the Houthis sound more Iranian than Yemeni, they were born in Yemen but we get to be the arbiters of who is a good Yemeni. The only thing Neocons are good at is lying.
“the asymmetrical tactics of the Houthis, combined with the conventional capabilities of the Yemeni army, are capable of bringing the Saudi kingdom of Mohammed Bin Salman to its knees.
The Yemeni army’s missile forces are able to carry out highly complex attacks”
I seem to recall reading from the beginning of this sadly misbegotten war that Yemeni ground forces were defeating Saudis and their proxies on a consistent and frequent basis, and that they were making raids into Saudi territory. There was a drumbeat about a Saudi offensive which was going to close a major port, which would starve the Yemenis into submission. The story died quickly when the offensive was defeated almost at birth. That was why the western media has been reporting only on the air war.
Be careful of what you wish for. The collapse of Saddam Hussein was a good thing in SO many ways. But “good” requires a plan for what comes after. Don’t suppose that what follows will automatically be an improvement. There is almost no level of bloody hell that can’t be made worse with the right people engaged. So who is that you think would take over?
Libyan model for MBS and family?
That is how exceptional indispensable people do diplomacy.
Somehow, Pompeo will find a way to blame Iran, as he doesn’t want to expand the war on Yemen. He wants a war on Iran.
Maybe those wily Persians can now teleport?
Snark aside, one thing that I have noted in my totally unscientific social media review is the number of self-identified Sunnis who express disgust with Saudi Arabia and who take the side of the Houthis.
Do not post things more than once.
But this collapse would mostly be the fault of the Saudi’s and the color change revolutionists as a byproduct of their respective ideologies and thus well deserved.
As the oil fields are in the Shia populated area of Saudi, it is highly unlikely that Al Quaeda Isis will be able to control that area. It is likely that Israel’s nightmare comes to pass as Iranian affiliation, if not out right union with at least Bahrain [
“The collapse of Saddam Hussein was a good thing in SO many ways.”
What collapse? He was ousted by US military force. Many around the world including in the US opposed that boneheaded neocon policy of a war to take out Saddam on false pretenses. Jihadism & sectarian conflict only arrived in Iraq as a consequence and the enablement of Iranian allies in Iraq.
Saddam was a secular dictator and not a supporter of Islamic terrorism. He was also a check on Iran. In fact if the neocons did not intervene to topple him he would likely have also taken Saudi Arabia after consolidating Kuwait and gotten rid of the House of Saud. That would have been a good thing in retrospect. Imagine what it would have been with a secular Arabia that included Syria, Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. 9/11 likely would not have happened as Saddam would have eliminated all the radical extremists in Saudi Arabia and would certainly have stopped sponsorship of the jihadists.
If the House of Saud indeed is in peril, the main question that would be uppermost in the minds of devout Muslims would be; who becomes the ‘keeper’ of Mecca and Medina, correct? There is a religious dimension to, seemingly, everything connected to the House of Saud. How “bitter ender” will the Wahabbi elements associated with the House of Saud become? From what I have read in history about the behaviours of Theocracies in the past, the portents seem dire.
Am I misreading this?
the west has underestimated the iranians the russians and the chinese ‘for-eva’ and now finds itself by the side of the road holding its collective d–k in its collective hand as the eurasian world speeds into the future off in the distance.
this is EXACTLY what happens when you promote incompetent mediocrities into policy making positions of power in the government, the intelligence services and the military as has been going on throughout the west for quite some time.
filled with hubris and self importance from beating up semi-helpless foes they never see a real competitor coming.
they get blindsided
The Al-Saud hedonists are not all the Al-Saud. A lot of them are fanatics as well. The dynasty has cultivated the Wahhabi ‘Ulema and funded their institutions of study, etc. IMO the most likely outcome to an overthrow of the incumbemts would be a fanatic prine elevated to the throne ewit hthe wild eyed enthusiastic backing of the masses.
Although it looks like the Houthi’s cutoff reinforcements very effectively, it seems the Saudi forces outran their supply lines or had no protected supply lines.
Is this why the cauldron that the Houthi’s created for Saudi forces collapsed so much faster than in Ukraine, or was it more the case of an army that is not fighting for patriotic reasons having no reason to continue fighting. Certainly didnt help that the military leadership fled.
I do not think surrendered Ukrainians were treated worse than by the Houthis…
Brigadier Saree, the briefer, explains at the beginning that the Yemeni rebels systematically captured the outposts on the supply route from the east after they invested Najran. I doubt there is more than one good road from Najran to the east but I have not been there for a long time.
You are not giving the Houthis any credit for this victory. BTW the Russians aren’t of the “West”?
Not talking about fault or what the current elites deserve. Only observing that a “good” collapse requires an outcome that can be considered better than the present. Such an outcome is in no way guaranteed. The Sauds, for instance, do not enforce Wahhabi morality because they believe in it, but because there are people around who think they are way too moderate about it and who have the power to make them pay attention.
“Collapse” may be a bit of a euphemism in Saddam’s case. It certainly applies in plenty of other cases that turned out badly.
It is easy to “feel good” about the idea of evil people falling from power. But that is usually a symbolic “feel good” divorced from any actual connection to the issues or commitment to improvement. People who are part of that world have to think harder.
Off topic, but maybe Col Lang will let it pass —
Chinese celebrate 70th National Day w Parade, Music, Fireworks
Maybe it’s not too late for USA to return to George Washington foreign policy advice — no particular friendships, respect all, trade w/ all.
I would not have guessed that this was a likely outcome. I learn something new from you weekly.
Oh boy. Talk about “watch out what you wish for!”
Yea, but Israel would have have a hissy hissy fit.
It would end one major source of jihaddery, but would likely replace it with another. In the event of the collapse and removal of the House of Saud and their Saudi Family Ranch ( the Kingdom of “Saudi” Arabia), the likeliest outcome is that al Qaeda and ISIS would immediately arise and/or arrive to fight over the oil and the money and the heaps of weapons and supplies.
If the conquered provinces and regions could break away before the Islamic Emirate of Arabia or the ISIStic Caliphate of Arabia could conquer them, then their land and people would not automatically be transferred to the post-Saudi jihadistas who take over. In such a scenario, the best thing that could happen for the world at large would be for the Shia Province of Oil Fieldistan to come under Iraq/Iran protection effective enough to kill every jihadi which tries to enter it.
(I have read somewhere that there was another notable family in Nejd – the Rashidis – who lost out to the Saudis in a power struggle. They may still be nursing their grievance and plotting their return from whatever countries they live in now. If the Saudi collapse happens slowly enough to give certain outside interveners a warning and time to intervene, they may offer the Rashidis-in-exile support to return, take over, and rule a kinder gentler kingdom. The Kingdom of Rashidi Arabia or something like that).
Well, you know what they say . . . ” if the hissy fits, wear it.”
Dear Colonel, Ah, I get it – mountainous terrain used well.
Is there a possibility of the Houthis taking the oil fields and the Shia with them in breaking up the kingdom. If that happened, a fanatic prince would not be able to do as much damage.
Of course, the neocons could not help trying to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.
I am sorry. I am new to this place. “Post” button seemed to be unresponsive, that’s why I tried to push it multiple times.
It is not true what you are saying, Saddam Hussein lacked the vision of conquering Arabia Felix. His chance was in 1979-1980, but he blew it by invading Iran. He was not secular either, he was against Shia Islam and Iran out of Sunni Arab prejudice.
All comments on SST are moderated by me or the authir of a front page post before they are posted.
The US and a coalition of other nations would intervene militarily to prevent a Houthi/12er seizure of the oil. This would be justified on the basis of the supposed alliance with Iran. It would be easy to justify on that basis.
The Hashemites were the traditional Custodians of the two Holy Mosques until displaced by the House of Saud, I believe they remain by agreement the Custodian of the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. Should the House of Saud
fall then there is a substantial possibility that legitimate authority would revert to the Hashemite family.
“Canada does not export items destined for Yemen or that we suspect might be used in Yemen due to the impact on regional stability and security.”
The Rashidis were of the Shammar tribe, one of the largest tribes in Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, and Syria. There is reportedly a Shammar-backed ‘Saudi Democratic Opposition Front’ based in Paris. But they say they have many supporters in the Mid-East including within Saudi Arabia. They claim supporters in Qatar also.
The Shammar of northeast Syria are fierce fighters. They have been one of the strongest allies of the Kurds and Syriacs in the fight against against ISIS in Hasakah, Raqqa, Manbij, and other battles. They are not descendants of the Rashidis, they had relocated north in the 18th century amid Wahabi wars ignited by a previous Saudi state. So they are virulently anti-Wahhabi and anti-Saudi. Their tribal leader Sheikh Humaydi Daham al-Hadi favors the breakup of Saudi Arabia. He wants to carry on the 200-plus year old struggle against conservative Wahhabi Islam, which destroyed the Rashidis, AKA the Emirate of Jabal Shammar. “We are already working on that,” he said back in 2015.
Doubtful in my mind he could pull it off, as it is a long, long way from Hasakah to Riyadh. And it is an even longer distance from Paris to Riyadh. But with all of MBS’s other problems, who knows? Perhaps Sheikh Humaydi’s effort and the Paris group could be the proverbial straw-that-broke-the-camels-back and contribute to a breakup.
Different Clue: Here are some links regarding the Saudi opposition:
The last one also mention another Saudi opposition group based in London, the Movement for Islamic Reform in Arabia (MIRA).
Norbert M Salamon,
re: “As the oil fields are in the Shia populated area of Saudi, it is highly unlikely that Al Quaeda Isis will be able to control that area.”
These folks have their way.
Unlike MbS with his Kashoggi “outsourced style” they are more direct and don’t bother going and getting (personally, physically, morally) dirty. Doesn’t mean it’ll work, as the Yemen ambush shows, but still.
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