Putin is not going to “invade” Ukraine. Nope. But Russia now is prepared to fight on behalf of two independent Republics who ask for Putin’s help. Putin signed an agreement with the leaders of Donetsh and Luhansk respectively about 11 pm Moscow time on 21 February. The Minsk Agreement is dead. By formally recognizing the Independent Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, Putin and his national security team are following the lead of how Western nations handled the break up of Yugoslovia into three separate republics.
Any hope that Biden and his advisors had about using their hysterical verbal posturing to bolster Biden’s stature as an international statesman feared by the Russians was flushed down the toliet with today’s signing.
Here are the key points from Putin’s globally televised speech:
- PUTIN SAYS UKRAINE WAS NOT ABLE TO ACHIEVE STABLE STATEHOOD AND HAS THEREFORE HAD TO RELY ON FOREIGN COUNTRIES LIKE THE UNITED STATES.
- PUTIN: UKRAINE HAS BECOME ‘A COLONY WITH A PUPPET GOVERNMENT’
- PUTIN SAYS UKRAINE PLANS TO CREATE ITS OWN NUCLEAR WEAPONS
- PUTIN SAYS WE WERE PROMISED NATO WOULD NOT EXPAND PUTIN SAYS THE OPPOSITE HAPPENED
- PUTIN: I WILL SAY SOMETHING IVE NEVER SAID FOR THE FIRST TIME: I ASKED CLINTON HOW WOULD YOU FEEL ABOUT RUSSIA JOINING NATO?
- PUTIN SAYS WE SAW FIVE WAVES OF NATO EXPANSION RECENTLY
- U.S. DOES NOT NEED SUCH A BIG COUNTRY AS RUSSIA IN NATO
- ‘WHY MAKE AN ENEMY OF US
- PUTIN SAYS RUSSIA HAS EVERY RIGHT TO PROTECT ITS SECURITY, THAT’S WHAT WE’LL DO
- PUTIN: UKRAINE DOESNT WANT A PEACEFUL RESOLUTION
- PUTIN: RUSSIA WILL TAKE STEPS TO ENSURE ITS SECURITY
- PUTIN SAYS RUSSIA WILL RECOGNISE INDEPENDENCE OF TWO BREAKAWAY REGIONS IN EASTERN UKRAINE
Putin emphasized his perplexity on the drumbeat from Washington, DC describing Russia as an enemy. He reiterated that Russia wants to be friends with the United States but, if the Americans continue to treat Russia as an enemy, Russia will take all necessary steps to defend the Motherland.
This is a watershed moment. Putin is daring the Ukraine and the West to attack the Donbas because Russia will defend the newly independent republics from invaders.
Larry,
The US and Germany agreed to no NATO expansion with Gorbachev. Then Clinton & Albright bombed Yugoslavia.
The neocons and neoliberals who have run both foreign and economic policy across administrations & Congresses of BOTH political parties – the nominal left & right – who have brought about the diminution of US strength and moral standing in world affairs and the offshoring & consequent dependence on other countries in our economic affairs.
Yet, they not only continue to dominate our ruling class but have in fact consolidated their power to near absolute power.
As we are seeing now in Canada dissent is not only being canceled but criminalized. We saw through their covidian policies not only in Democrat run states but even in some Republican run states that authoritarian policies were enacted ostensibly for the “greater good” although they never did any of that. Instead they favored the laptop class and pummeled the working class and the poor and of course the kids who we’ve saddled with massive debt and then removed the opportunity for an education to pay for all that debt.
As Pogo said, we’ve met the enemy and he is us.
Excellent comment
The neocons and neoliberals who have run both foreign and economic policy across administrations & Congresses of BOTH political parties – the nominal left & right – who have brought about the diminution of US strength and moral standing in world affairs and the offshoring & consequent dependence on other countries in our economic affairs.
Yet, they not only continue to dominate our ruling class but have in fact consolidated their power to near absolute power.
It’s amazing how psychopaths are so good at keeping their subordinates loyal to the overclass. It’s almost as if they are being blackmailed.
we’ve met the enemy and he is us.
I get what Pogo was saying but I disagree. Maybe a good person has a moment of weakness and allows his country to be hijacked by a traitor, and that DOES mean the good person failed and is responsible for his failing, but it does NOT mean the good person is equivalent to the traitor. Rommel was not my favorite guy, but there was a big difference between Rommel and Hitler.
To refine Pogo’s statement, I would say, we have met the enemies of NATO, and they are wearing NATO uniforms, but they are not loyal to NATO. Countries like Canada are led by traitors.
This seems like the last word on all of this.
A few more details via Colonel Cassad:
“1. Russia officially recognized the sovereignty of the DNR and LNR. Putin signed the corresponding document. Tomorrow it must be approved by the Federation Council and the State Duma. Minsk-2 is dead. I congratulate the inhabitants of Donbass, what we in Crimea and Sevastopol got so easily in 2014, you suffered and paid with the blood of an 8-year wait.
2. Friendship and cooperation agreements have been concluded with the DPR and LPR, which will enable Russia to deploy troops in the Donbass along the lines of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Tomorrow, these agreements should also be ratified.
In fact, as mentioned earlier, it was not the Pridnestrovian, but the South Ossetian version that was implemented in the Donbass. As the only way to stop the implementation of the Karabakh scenario with a permanent war.
3. Russia requires the Kiev regime to immediately stop hostilities. In case of refusal, all the consequences of the continuation of the war will fall on Ukraine. In fact, this is a direct threat of peace enforcement. Since the probability of abandoning the war tends to zero, it is very likely that we will face a phase of active maneuverable combat operations.
Putin:
“They are not interested in peaceful solutions – they want to start Blitzkreig.”
“I deem it necessary to make a decision that should have been made a long time ago to immediately recognize the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics.”
Pound sand indeed.
Though with the weaponry of our era, sand might turn into glass….
I presume you’re Canadian. Please take care of the dictator running your new Gulag.
Mapleleaf
Canada is a NATO country. Some the glass might be in Toronto and Ottowa.
Speaking of turning sand into glass, how probable is that this escalates into USA and/or Russia withdrawing from START and begin building up inventories ?
majcek
I am old. I live within easy burst radius of DC.
I Ottawa known it and concur. Chrystia Freeland, the quisling spawn has seen to Canada giving half a billion dollars to the Ukrainian regime. I do think that if Zelensky had been more of a free agent, he might have made some kind of deal, after all, he tried to put it off for a while, but Putin had to act under the circumstances.
Your gal figures prominently herein:
https://taibbi.substack.com/p/when-boring-people-turn-dangerous?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxODkwNzUxNSwicG9zdF9pZCI6NDkxMTIzNzksIl8iOiJKeU4xNyIsImlhdCI6MTY0NTUzODMyMSwiZXhwIjoxNjQ1NTQxOTIxLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMTA0MiIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.beBpn8yauQJkvIzfTxCx2nYCr0JG63fewXFqKJI8Qsk&utm_source=url
MapleLeaf,
Congradulations to the Prime Minster of Canada for the successful pacification of his fellow citizens. Honkpocalypse could only be defeated by a man who would not dare actually talk to his fellow citizens who drive trucks. Ukraine provided a great distraction.
To paraphrase Trudeau’s speach today: “one man, one vote, one time.” The Emergency Act remains in effect. He’s in charge now. Go home, or go to jail.
All
Putin has acted as I thought he would. I have written several times here that he would do this. I do not think that he will actually move Russian forces into the two “countries” unless Ukraine actually attempts to re-occupy the two. If Ukraine does that Russia will move its forces into the two new “states” and a general war between Ukraine and Russia will begin. The eastern region of Ukraine is very remote in logistical terms. Even if the US wanted to join a defense of Ukraine’s east the logistics of movement and supply would be absurdly difficult. The light forces we have deployed to eastern NATO countries are nothing more than symbolic. IMO Putin will continue to menace Ukraine from the north and northeast to fix the Ukraine force in place and thus prevent their movement to the Donbass front.
Col Lang,
Do you think Zelensky knows that the US/NATO cannot save his bacon, regardless of whatever he’s been promised, should he decide to attempt to reoccupy the two “countries” and that much death and destruction, perhaps globally, but most certainly his own, would ensue? Is he going to take his beating (the loss of the Russophile regions) and get on with life?
I would think that if Z doesn’t learn to live with the new reality that Spetsnaz will remove him from office and something more amenable to Russia will be installed.
It’d make more sense for Russian artillery to eradicate the Azov Brigade and other hard-line nationalist forces as they are willing and capable of removing Zelensky is he decides to use a soft approach or negotiate with Russia.
If open recognition of the DNR and LNR is what Putin will settle for, Ukraine should do fine with that. She lost that territory, along with Crimea, eight years ago. If Russian forces openly patrol the line of contact with the Republics, that should be the end of the shooting. That would be good for Ukraine along with the republics. People on both sides of the border can then get back to a more normal life.
That still leaves Putin with a Western facing Ukraine integrating deeper into the EU. Just Yesterday the EU declared the establishment of an EU defense cooperation mission to Ukraine, although I have no idea what that entails. Ukraine will still be a NATO partner, although full membership will probably be even further into the future, if at all. Surely Russia can find one of the 30 members of NATO to veto Ukrainian full membership. NATO will still be in Eastern Europe from the Baltics to the Balkans. And it will now have a mission to focus on rather than floundering around without purpose seeking weird-assed partnerships around the world. Putin surely won’t be happy with all this, but what can he do about it. He’s not getting his demands met with over half his army on the Ukrainian border. What’s next? Try the same dick waving stunt on the Baltic borders?
TTG,
re: Putin surely won’t be happy with all this, but what can he do about it. He’s not getting his demands met with over half his army on the Ukrainian border. What’s next? Try the same dick waving stunt on the Baltic borders?
Seems to me that V. V. Putin has waved a large dick and achieved most of what he wanted to achieve in the Ulkraine. It will be fun to watch who will pay for the rehabilitation of what remains.
Next steps: Are you, or the neocons running your foreign policy, ready to go to a nuclear exchange over the Baltic “republics” and the sites in Poland and Romania?
I am willing to bet (bottle of Lagavulin, 15 year. I can get a bottle sent to Alexandria-Colonel Lang might hold the stakes if he is amenable) that he is going to ride this until most of what he wants in Europa is achieved, namely the elimination of forward US bases threatening Russia within two years. Take the bet?
Ishmael Zechariah
But..you count with Ukraine remaining between its current borders and territory, forgetting that this could well be the start of the disintegration of that artificial state.
What will happen when the Republics flourish as it did Crimea and the Ukrainians are submitted to the impoverishing milking process any NATO colony is, which will mean further indebtedness to satisfy the German banks and US MIC?
What will happen with Kherson, Mariupol, Dnepropetrovsk?
What will happen with the world, when all the Western citizens are under nazi dictatorships?
As for the Baltics, why in the Earth Russia would want those statelets in full process of depopulation totally dependent on fuelling their Russophobia to receive their EU and NATO subventions?
Anyway, I do not think once recognized the Donbass republics Putin is willing to allow more misstreatment of Russian citizens and speakersanywhere and Ukraine is not the only place where discriminatory laws against Russians are in effect.
TTG should study history. Russia was willing to pay the price in blood to defend her sovereignty 1941-1945 against the earlier version of Nazism. Why do you think it will be any different now? Dick-waving, indeed. Shows your level. Try a little less of the Neanderthal Russophobia.
Miller –
1.65 million Ukrainian Red Army soldiers were KIA fighting the Nazis. 5,2 million Ukrainian civilians died in that war. They also paid the price in blood to defend against Hitler.
And plenty of Russians collaborated with the Nazis. Vlasov’s Russian Liberation Army fought for Hitler. So did the 15th SS Coosack Cavalry Corps (BTW most of those were from the Donbas). Belarus had two Waffen SS Divisions.
Leith
And western Ukraine had this one. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/14th_Waffen_Grenadier_Division_of_the_SS_(1st_Galician)
Pat –
I know, the Ukro-Nazis were as bad or worse than Hitler and Stalin. So were the many others that joined the SS from as far afield as India. So were the Vichy SS Charlemagne Grenadiers. Even neutral Sweden and Switzerland had some whacko SS volunteers.
PS – Add the ethnic Russian Waffen-Sturm-Brigade der SS RONA to the long list of Russian Nazis who fought for Hitler. They took part in the Ochota and Wola Massacres during the Warsaw Uprising, as well as committing atrocities in Slovakia.
Leith
There only a few French and British recruited mainly from among PWs mainly. but there were many, many West Europeans, Swedes, Dutch, Belgians, etc. I had a German teacjer in Frankfurt who was Dutch and who had served in the 5th SS Panzer grenadier Division (Wiking). This was made up entirely of foreign Nordic volunteers. He had fought in the Donbas, Rostov, etc. The German Army (Heer) prevented the drafting of German citizens into the Waffen SS, but by 1943 that had ended. BTW there was also a large force recruited from PWs that served with the German Army. This was the Vlasov Army. They surrendered to us at the end, and we gave them to the Soviets who killed all their leaders and sent the men to the Gulag. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Liberation_Army
Pat –
Vlasov wasn’t the only one. We, or the Brits, also gave 30,000 to 40,000 Cossack collaborators and their families to the Soviets. Some 2000 were immediately executed in Austria by SMERSH. Many of those came from the Donbas. SS Cossack Generals Krasnov, Schuro, and Domanov (sp?) were tried and executed in 47.
Krasnov was the Ataman of the Don Cossack Host, he recruited and for awhile led the 1st Cossack Cavalry of the Wehrmacht that later was transferred to the SS. Putin’s mouthpiece on Rossiya1 TV, Dmitry Kiselyov, aka the Russian Goebbels has been trying to rehabilitate Krasnov’s reputation and build him a monument in Russia. Lots of support for that in the Don River region.
Checkmate.
What will “Mean old Grandpa” do now? Sanctions? Yes.
What will Europe do? That is the next question.
“What will Europe do? That is the next question.”
A hard question.
On the face of it, suicidal Europe will do what Biden tells it to do.
But I hope that Germany will work to be able to continue to sell its machine tools and stuff and cars to Russia and receive gas from it.
I am thinking of NS1 and transit through Ukraine. NS2 is probably dead.
As many have said here, Germany has painted itself into a corner regarding energy. A look at the electricity exchanges between France and Germany shows that French nuclear electricity is being used as a buffer for so-called German green electricity (no sun and no wind). Hence gaz because coal is bad.
It’s a detail, but significant.
Walrus,
Checkmate for who? Mean old Grandpa doesn’t have to implement sanctions that would end up crippling us all. Putin didn’t undertake a further incursion whether he had any intention to or not. However, the EU said they will implement some kind of sanctions just for recognizing the republics.
TTG
Evidently armor and mech infantry moving into the Donbas. Perhaps Putin hold BOJO and bad grandpa in such contempt that will advance to the Dnieper line. State Department is, of course peeing in their pants.
pl,
I figured real Russian units would move in. That’s not a further invasion. At a minimum that should stop the shelling from DNR/LNR units and those on both sides of the line of contact can get some semblance of peace. If Russian units go beyond the line of contact, that would be the further invasion that would trigger the massive sanctions. It would also fulfill Biden’s prediction that Russia will further invade Ukraine and show Putin to be a liar.
TTG
Yes, but his level of contempt may be too high to not do it.
walrus
The next and only question is what will Russia do. What I just heard was a “they shall reap the whirlwind” speech.
>>>PUTIN SAYS UKRAINE PLANS TO CREATE ITS OWN NUCLEAR WEAPONS<<<
Yikes. And is the rest of the world okay with having a country with the GDP 10% the size of Italy have nuclear weapons just because it is on Russia's doorstep? That would be short sighted. You might as well open a flea market.
Using nominal GDP since ppl love doing that to insult Russia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
But in any case, Ukraine is not a rich country. Selling weapons to other states should be a concern.
Christian J. Chuba,
Don’t you realize a Ukraine seeking nuclear weapons is total bullshit. Shoigu said “Ukraine has all capabilities necessary to reinstate its nuclear status. It is in a position better than that of Iran’s or North Korea’s.” Is that what he gathered from Zelenskiy’s exasperated remarks in Munich?
I was collecting on Ukraine’s efforts to unlock the Soviet nucs left on their territory when the USSR broke up. They tried like Hell to unlock them. Luckily the old Soviet safeties proved too tough. Only when the Ukrainians couldn’t unlock them did they decide to return them to Moscow. That was a good thing.
Larry,
Are they recognizing the old oblast borders, for the republics, or the current front lines?
The ancient borders of Pangea
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-o4PMHJ5UuNg/ToA2638Mm_I/AAAAAAAABJY/bia3eKjWtFE/s1600/Pangaea+1_jpg.jpg
Until Putin says otherwise, I would say the current borders but if we do all we can on sanctions then why not Pangea? It does create an incentive.
Two questions:
1] Does Russian recognition acknowledge only the current LDR/DNR held territory or does it include all of the Donbas as LDR/DNR leadership claims?
2] Will Russia send units of the Russian Army to beef up the breakaways or instead send Wagner Group mercs? BTW Russian officers and NCOs have been in the breakaway republics for years as advisors. And Putin’s tourists from 2014 turned out to be SV ‘volunteers’. Even politicians, DNR President Pushilin is just a figurehead, the real power there is Prime Minister Vladimir Pashkov, one of Putin’s oligarch friends from Irkutsk in Siberia.
Leith
Do you know the answer to your own question? As for use of Russin military as covert advisers, this is what we do with Green Berets under a presidential finding.
Now theRussians are claiming they will send peacekeepers. Too bad they do not invite some UN peacekeepers. I would bet the UN’s DPO Chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix could gin up some non-EU blue berets to serve there. But I doubt the LDR/DNR or Putin would accept them.
Dear Colonel,
Events move fast. Russian troops are ordered to keep the peace.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/donbas-rebel-leaders-formally-urge-immediate-russian-military-assistance
TTG, you ask what can Russia do, I suggest you read a few of Pat Armstrong’s columns here at SST. Lots of technical military ideas. First is to stop selling gas to Germany and see if German liebe of the US (as in ass licking) is as deep as their desire not to commit economic suicide. Sail protection of Venezuelan tankers for sale to China and cut 10% off the US oil balance pushing gas to $10.
ISL
If the troops ordered in are more than MPs then I think this is an unforced error. It would be better to keep significant forces waiting on Russia’s side of the border to see if Ukraine attacks.
side of the border to see if Ukraine attacks.
There is a serious army “group” in Belarus now–this is 60,000 Belorussians and 30, 000 of Russians troops with all gear which decided, and I quote, “to prolong” Russian-Belorussian maneuvers for a couple of weeks more. They are within 130-150 kilometers from Kiev, not to mention a massive stand off capability and air forces assets assembled in Belarus.
Andre..You Are Correct..In My Opinion…and I think at This Point..It Was And Excellent..Strategic Move,,In The Chess Match…It Now Has Allowed The Next MOVE,,
Into An Area Controlled By Frendly Allies..
The Donau..To Me..Is Perfect. For Russia The Easily Control A Smaller Land Mass to Control And
Position The Forces You Mention..To The WEST..But Also North…Further East..and inMy Opinion..To The South For Support and Control and The Black Sea..and Ukranian Sea Ports..I Not Partial..I Analyze As I See IT..
JT
Officially, it looks like MPs as they are arriving in buses not armored columns (a tripwire). I would be surprised if Russian special forces were not already in place, aiding the LDR & DPR forces hold the line and probably providing technical assistance for heavy artillery. The proximity of the LOC to Russia (80 km) means that Russian forces could arrive from Russia to the LOC in an hour.
They may be a tripwire, so that if Ukraine attacks, Russia has an excuse to advance to the administrative Donbas borders.
I have a feeling they will do it in any case, though. In for a penny, in for a pound.
zmajcek
You think Biden has positioned the 82nd as a sacrificial tripwire. If so, you are nuts.
I think that the ‘tripwire’ is the Russian MPs, I am sure that the 82nd is not in Ukraine but in Poland.
JohninMK
Ah, you figured that out!
Sir,
These are just words, take it as you will. I don’t know. It’s from a Ru site, well known, originally one of Khodorkovsky’s, who got very sideways with Putin as you probably know. Why do I paste it? It says — introduction of troops to follow. That may or not be strictly aboveboard as Khodorkovsky went to jail for 9 yrs.
https://thebell.io/priznanie-dnr-i-lnr-kak-eto-bylo-kakih-zhdat-sanktsij-i-chto-budet-dalshe
Recognition of the DPR and LPR: how it was, what sanctions to expect and what will happen next.
The crisis around Ukraine went according to a tough scenario, which most experts until the last refused to consider as real. After the meeting of the Security Council, which was broadcast on federal channels, Vladimir Putin, in an hour-long address to the Russians, announced the recognition of the independence of the DPR and LPR. Tomorrow this decision will be approved by the State Duma and the Federation Council. This will be followed by the introduction of Russian troops into the republics, which Vladimir Putin has already ordered, and equally inevitable Western sanctions. The dollar on this news rose to 80 rubles, and the Moscow Exchange index lost 15% – this is the largest daily drop since 2008.
— more at link. Site focus is Bu$ine$$ for most part.
Pardon me. Site is in Ru language. I have my phone configured to translate automatically, so it slipped my mind.
The drop started long before Putin’s speech. The big six state owned corporations or state controlled got hit hard:
SberBank down almost 20%
GazProm down 17%
Rosneft down 15%
Yandex down 12%
LukOil & NorNickel down 10% each
It won’t hurt Putin and his oligarch friends. They’ll probably start buying at the low prices and wait for the rise. But it will be bad for the average Russian.
Buying the oil and resources companies at these prices may turn out to be a good speculation. Of course those gains could be offset by ruble decline. A currency hedged position could be a good bet.
As in the US the bottom 50% may not have any exposure to financial assets in Russia. A difference could be that the Russian central bank won’t step in to bail out wealthy speculators unlike here where the Fed put remains.
The Germans cut out many GW of nuclear and now are dependent on Russian gas. A deep recession in the west will hurt the Russian resource based economy. However, that would imply that Powell will need to print up significantly to bailout his PE buddies and his own centi-millions in financial assets.
Leith,
What percentage of Russians actually own any of those stocks and how much each? I suspect there are a lot of international mutual funds that own one heck of a lot more of it than reguar Russian investors and are dumping it now, which provides a nice buying opportunity for everyone else.
My guess Russia continue selling gas to Germany and other NATO countries until the US gets Russia removed from the SWIFT system. That’s when Russia will stop all gas sales to western Europe. However they will immediately offer to resume sales using the settlement system being ginned up by Russia and China, which will prove to be very much ready for prime time. That will present Germany and other NATO countries with Hobbson’s choices.
We live in interesting times.
ISL,
Cutting off gas to Europe is certainly an option. That would make the arguments over Nord Stream 2 moot. Escorting Venezuelan tankers hurts nobody. We’ve already cut off imports of Venezuelan oil. Most of it is already going to China.
TTG, You are correct on Venezuela. I was trying to think outside the box and went over the edge.
I believe Russia has just become the Number 2 supplier of oil/oil products, mostly heating oils and diesel to the US. These are being used principally in the North Eastern states to keep the heating on and the trucks rolling at a price lower than it would be without this supply.
Johnb,
Numbers 1 and 2 suppliers to the US are Canada and Mexico. Russia is tied with Saudi Arabia at a distant number 3. We’re the number 1 producer, consumer and exporter. And we still import. Go figure.
TTG,
Another pain point is Mariupol.
It is in the official Donetsk region, but behind the LOC. Loss of the port would have significant negative economic impact to Ukraine (and positive to Donetsk). Should civilians in Mariupol be under threat (no comment on who would be responsible), then R2P (irony alert) would green light moving Russia to create new facts on the ground.
True, this doesn’t affect the US, but the Ukrainian situation is close to sending massive Ukrainian refugee waves into an unwelcoming EU that is economically in the doldrums.
It seems somewhat similar to the situation with Idlib, in Syria. Turkey can brag about keeping the Russians out, but what do they have? A bunch of refugees and Muslim head choppers. What is the biggest split in Turkey? The secularists versus the Muslims. It seems like what Erdogan has acquired, is a leaky bag of botulism.
Similarly it seems likely there will be no Russian petroleum products going to Ukraine, or across Ukraine and certainly no Nord Stream 2. That would mean Ukraine becomes even more of a basket case, that Europe finds itself responsible for. Do they start sending them oil and gas, as Europe runs short as well? Send them more small arms, that will likely end up on the black market?
Meanwhile Hungary, Romania and Turkey find ways to avoid sanctions.
Ukraine will probably turn into another narco state like Kosovo, will all kind of traffic, inckuding organs, circulating there, if it is not just that the reality there…
re: What is the biggest split in Turkey? The secularists versus the Muslims.
J+M;
It might be more accurate to say “The secularists versus the islamists”. “Islamism is not a form of the Muslim faith or an expression of Muslim piety; it is, rather, a political ideology that strives to derive legitimacy from Islam”.
( https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/muslims-vs-islamists )
Ishmael Zechariah
I am glad for the suffering people of the republics.
It made my day, in spite of us here having no less serious problems than the Ukrainians.
I only hope the now independent Novorrosiyans are not impossed the QR cattle tag.
Wondering whether the people in Canada, being so close to Alaska, would at some point ask for being liberated too…Others could follow…
Larry
I listened to most of Putin’s speech following the Security Council meeting live on rt.com. I’ve just listened to the whole thing again on youtube (link below), as I couldn’t find a transcript. IMO it is well worth listening to in full.
This was not, as it was entitled on RT, a speech about the recognition of the two republics. Donbas is discussed only in the last 7 minutes or so of the 55 minute address. As your bullet points indicate, the vast majority of the speech concerned Ukraine’s history, NATO expansion and the present threat to Russia.
One extract from Putin’s speech was of particular interest to me. After a long history lesson describing/justifying Ukraine’s ‘artificial’ nature as separate from Russia – or irredentist rant if you prefer – Putin discussed the ‘de-communization’ that took place after independence. He then said this:
Putin had already described the creation of the Ukrainian SSR (UkSSR) by Lenin and the territorial additions made to the UkSSR since 1922. He also went back further and briefly mentioned the Brest-Litovsk treaty signed by the Bolsheviks in 1918 ceding huge swathes of the western Russian empire (incl. most of what is now Ukraine). FWIW Vladislav Surkov authored an article recently suggesting it was high time Russia reversed the effects of this treaty (<a href="https://anti-empire.com/surkov-it-is-high-time-russia-reverses-the-obscene-treaty-of-brest-litovsk-1918/"here). Is Putin’s comment a threat to annex some or all of Ukrainian territory? If this were Erdogan speaking of post WWI injustices many here would be decrying his irredentist fantasies. Let us take care that we are consistent.
So we have 2 new republics, what now? Minsk II is dead and Russia still faces the threat of the NATO-ization of Ukraine and a post 1997 NATO. Nothing has really changed vis-à-vis Russia’s declared security interests. The lunatic Russia hawks will presumably still want to try everything to push Russia into an open conflict and fight to the last Ukrainian. 60%(?) of Russia’s military is deployed on Ukraine’s borders and presumably cannot remain there indefinitely. This is not a status quo that can last.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GjMnTo85S4A
Well, for you to go figuring….
https://twitter.com/castrocalo/status/1495918705561243650/photo/1
Yes, always useful to read what has actually been said or even left unsaid. VVP said way back that the failure of Minsk would lead to the dismemberment of Ukraine. I not the US embassy recently moved to Lvov has now left and moved into Poland, might this be a pre-cursor to a declaration by Galicia a possible renewal of its relationship with Poland. All is now in flux.
One of the best points for me is that Putin asured those responsible for the Odessa masacre will pay before a Russian tribunal.
The nazis and some policemen in Odessa must be already packing for the US or Kosovo..
Have anyone heard of Parubyi lately? Where that guy has lost himself?
Glad to hear that at least that massacre is going to be judged.
To see what happens with the ongoing vaccine massacre…It seems that Bill Gates was furious at the MSC complaining that the Omicron variant got with the vaccines business to waste, that the “disinformation” avoided many people being vaccinated and that next time they will do better, since they will vaccinate everybody in six months instead of two years…
Why was Bill Gates at the MSC?
Why was Nancy Pelosi?
Have we assisted at the official inauguration of the Mafiosi World Order?
Had that something to do with the current developments in the Kremlin?
Larry – with any luck that safeguards the people in the LDNR. It’d have been much better had Scholz and Macron managed to get the Ukrainians to implement Minsk 2 but that’s now water under the bridge.
What about other Russian requests? Those missile bases that could be used for nuclear and the missiles ten or even five minutes away from Moscow. Is there going to be further conflict over those or will the Russians call it a day?
And the sanctions? Scholz will want to keep NS1 off the list of sanctions. Will Putin sanction the other way if those missile bases aren’t withdrawn? The EU is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas.
The response to those missile bases likely will come with russian (missile) bases in Cuba and/or Venezuela, I would think.
There is no need to do it all at once.
VVP spoke with both Macron and Sholz immediately prior to the public pronouncement. There is a lot going on between Russia and ‘Old Europe’ to recall a Donald Rumsfeld descriptor. For Team Biden it looks increasingly that control of the info-war space is less than adequate when a hard reality bites. Especially so when your opponent retains their own agency to act.
Alves,
Or Transdnistra
In what world is sending in agents to proclaim ‘republics’ on the soil of another country, (belatedly) unilaterally recognizing the independence of those ‘republics’, and then sending in troops on the invitation of the ‘independent republics’ not an invasion? Months of western propaganda about troop build ups and invasions was effectively just vindicated.
Well, let me offer a couple points.
The Ukrainians failed – by design from all indications – to implement any of the agreed upon measures in the Minsk II program. This for 8 years, btw. Instead, they continued to militarily aggress against the Russian community in the eastern provinces. I am just so sure that those tactics, along with the Ukrainian government’s decision to remove the Russian language as an officially recognized language in Ukraine served to convince the residents of those two provinces of Russian ethnicity of the warm, fraternal feelings of their brother Ukrainians encouraging them to put their heads on the chopping block of the Banderites, and to roll over and surrender.
You omitted those issues in your characterization of events.
And as to your question about “in what world”, well, a world in which the much bandied about by the West principle of Responsibility to Protect actually gets implemented after all patience with the never to be seen Western response is at long last exhausted. Maybe you are comfortable with that level of hypocrisy, but some of us are not. So let the West stand naked as a jay bird in the view of the world at large, and we give thanks to the Russian Federation for doing that which needed doing.
Gerat comment
Maybe even great
JJ –
You are right about the language. A bad mistake by Kiev. I believe they realized their mistake and rescinded it.
But you are wrong about Minsk 2. It has been routinely violated by the People’s Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk. And those two breakaways have been the aggressors against ethnic Ukrainians within (and without) their territory. During WW2 many of the Russians in the Donbas were members of (or supported) Hitler’s Waffen SS Cossack Cavalry Corps. They are still Nazis at heart.
Anyone know who is running current, day to day, foreign policy on Ukraine and NATO expansion? Can’t be Blinken, flying around the Pacific for almost a week in the middle of all this. DOD?
Nuland seems likely.
I don’t see anyone with near the gravitas and experience needed for this kind of thing inside the White House.
Anyone know what William Burns is thinking? Seems like he might be the most experienced and steadiest hands anywhere near this shop.
Via Zero Hedge:
“As a result of surging energy prices, Statista’s Felix Richter notes that the country’s total oil and gas exports, including oil products and liquified natural gas, exceeded $240 billion last year, up 60 percent from $150 billion in 2020, when energy prices had slumped at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. According to figures from the Russian Finance Ministry cited by Reuters, the oil price averaged $69 per barrel in 2021, up from around $40 in 2020. The average price of natural gas exported by Russia reached $277 per 1,000 cubic meters in Q3 2021, up from less than $100 in Q2 2020, amid the Covid crash.”
Congratulations to Biden and Co. for balancing the Russian budget.
Here’s a translation of Zelenskiy’s speech to the nation translated by Iryna Matviyishyn, a Ukrainian journalist in Kyiv. It was five minutes rather than an hour.
Dear people, we and our state do not have time for long lectures on history. I will not talk about the past. I will talk about current realities and our future.
Ukraine is within its internationally recognized borders, and will remain so. Despite any statements and actions of the Russian Federation. We remain calm and confident. I want to thank all our citizens for this. You are proving once again that Ukrainians are a smart and wise nation. And in spite of everything we keep a cool head, react calmly, carefully, like an adult.
We are ready for anything. But there is no reason for you to have a sleepless night. Tonight we held a meeting of the National Security and Defense Council. Ukraine qualifies the latest actions of the Russian Federation as a violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our state. All responsibility for these decisions are made by Russia’s political leadership. Recognition of the independence of the occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions means Russia’s unilateral withdrawal from the Minsk agreements and them ignoring decisions within Normandy format. It undermines peaceful efforts and destroys existing negotiation formats. With today’s and, possibly, tomorrow’s decisions, Russia is legalizing its troops, which have actually been in the occupied territories of Donbas since 2014. A country that has been supporting the war for 8 years cannot maintain peace as it claims. I discussed the situation with French President Macron, German Chancellor Scholz, US President Biden, British Prime Minister Johnson, and European Council President Michel.
I also plan to talk with Turkish President Erdogan. What will happen next? We want peace. and we are consistent in our actions. Today, the MFA Ukraine sent a request to the UN Security Council member states to hold immediate consultations on the basis of the Budapest Memorandum. I initiated the convening of the UN Security Council and a special meeting of the OSCE. We insist on the OSCE to prevent provocations and further escalation. An emergency convocation of the Normandy summit was also initiated. We expect clear and effective support steps from our partners. It is very important to see now who is our true friend and partner, and who will continue to frighten the Russian Federation with words.
We are committed to political and diplomatic regulation and do not succumb to any provocations. Our borders are securely protected. a system of territorial defense was created. Our partners support us. In accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter, Ukraine reserves the right for individual and collective self-defense. We can distinguish between the provocations and the offensive of the aggressor’s troops.
Truth is on our side. we will never hide the truth from you. As soon as we see a change in the situation, as soon as we see an increase in risk, you will know all about it. There is currently no reason for chaotic actions. We will do everything to make it so in the future.
We are committed to a peaceful and diplomatic path, and we will follow it. We are on our land. We are not afraid of anything or anyone. We owe nothing to anyone, and we will not give anything to anyone. We are sure of this, because now it is not February 2014, but February 2022. Our country is different, our army is different. The only goal is peace in Ukraine. Glory to Ukraine.
TTG,
Sounds like he’s toast and he knows it.
Suspicions being confirmed by the Western press….
It seems he will be made the scapegoat.
He was not definitely “the servant of the people” he played on TV.
It is what it takes when people rely on TV propaganda. ilusions and promises to amend their lives and future.
The hypocrisy! It burns!
Every so often I’ve been looking at the flight paths around Ukraine on the Russian side, figuring that they would divert before things really flared up. Well, for the first time since this current buildup began, I have observed such a diversion.
You can compare the flight path of AZV517 (tonight 21st of Feb) with previous occasions (on flightaware). There now appears to be a 60-70km increase in distance from the border of Ukraine. Perhaps an early indication of emerging threats to aircraft in Russian airspace.
https://twitter.com/cernovich/status/1495953391843147778?s=21
Who was the last well-read US POTUS? Who had read and internalized the classics, literature and history. Who did we have equally well-read in Congress?
JFK would be my guess.
In my opinion both the US and British government were very poorly advised if they really did think the Ruskies would be ‘invading’ the Ukraine and bombing Kiev as has been hysterically claimed for some weeks. The real outcome was surely easy to predict following the overwhelming vote last week (15th) in the Duma to recognise the independence of the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Lugansk. Putin and his security council were very unlikely to reject the Duma & public opinion on this matter, though for Putin it represents a failure; afterall, the Russian Government have worked hard these past past eight years to get the Kiev regime to start implementing the Minsk agreements (2014/15) but one could only go far with this. Providing security must mean sending in troops into the two regions and no doubt the US and its allies will regard this as their ‘invasion’ and apply sanctions. It is this burning desire to apply sanctions against Russia that this whole drama is really most probably about. The big losers in all this will not be the Russians (already largely a self sufficient ‘sanction-proof’ country) but the Europeans who will end up paying much higher costs across the board
A request:
Is there a good map on the web which shows the Ukraine, especially the regions under discussion?
V. Putin, if only we had one like him. To the Donbas miners I raise my glass. God watch over your homes.
How to interpret this? Is a refusal to redraw from Ukrainian controlled parts of Donetsk & Lugansk casus belli? Or is it such local leaders pushing the boundaries.
https://tass.com/world/1408279
“KIEV, February 22. /TASS/. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said on Tuesday that Kiev would not consider a request by the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR) to pull back the Ukrainian troops from its controlled Donbass districts.
“We are not communicating with them. We do not understand who they are,” Zelensky said at a joint press conference with Estonian President Alar Karis, responding to a question about whether Kiev would consider the request by the Donbass republics.
Lawmaker of the LPR People’s Council Dmitry Khoroshilov stated earlier on Tuesday that measures could be taken to restore the integrity of the entire territory of the republic, if Kiev did not pull back its troops outside the Lugansk Region. He pointed out that under the republic’s law the LPR territory included the entire former Lugansk Region. The lawmaker said that it was necessary to call on Ukraine to pull back its troops voluntarily because otherwise “measures will be taken that will allow establishing peace and territorial integrity on the entire LPR territory.”
Official Kiev has repeatedly stated that it refuses to hold direct negotiations with the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics as it considers them senseless. Zelensky, in particular, has claimed that the leaders of the republics “decide nothing” and, therefore, it is not worth “wasting time” on negotiations with them.
“
Poul
Russia needs no casus belli. Putin has already explained Russia’s need to go to war. For example in his July 2021 essay:
Putin has also just clarified that Russian recognition of LPR & DPR extends to the old oblast boundaries, so over half of this territory must be deemed under Ukrainian occupation.
https://www.rt.com/russia/550281-putin-donbass-recognition-borders/
Barbara Ann et al
here is an english translation of Putin’s speech
https://vk.com/@580896205-putins-speech-prior-to-recognizing-donbass-republics
Keith
NYT has xlnt map, just what you seek, but behind paywall here:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/world/europe/ukraine-maps.html
Putin speech, official translation now available:
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828
Putin comments today about Minsk, and more:
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67838
Sir shout out all the ukrainan protester in ukraine please do not thrown hitting words at this moment , trying to speak loud again to the president vladimer of your symphaty and all of you wanted to be, asking for bigging with bowing do not insulted president putin please look at that ? yes no to war so that we will not arresting ? but try again shout president putin and speaks do not shown your face that you got no anger
the president warns us it might it all turning to distruction, if the ptesident made his discision lunch the nueclare and missiles , pray for both ukraine and russian that this crisis and wars will be resoleved immediately , so that we recieving peace and victory of both country, find ways do something give president putin a gift so that his temper will slowly going to melteing
im asking all leaders we need to united we know that there will be a delagates sending both but we need speedy , the communicate of conversation make the bridges of the top leader of our counyry fill on the gap call up both we need to speed reconcillation so that this tempers it will go away then crisis faces will trully gone
Be strong do not panicking pray to god asking bigging for peace and temper will be going to melted we god is a powerful god he hears our prayer god will not thrown to us into danger keep on praying do not lost hope as long as we having breath to inhale there will be hopes
President sir vladimir sir i know and you know life is woth it i bigging you in behalf of your soveriegn power great we ask your aplologies and understamding we came to you in your kingdom office bowing our respect , all of things done to you please forgive your people ukraine try open your heart again and do not let temper rises in your life and dont let domaine evil over your life sir president bigging your people highness sir
Thank you for your utmost inner most understanding with regards of this matter thinhs done and facing in our country we love you sir president
#Thank you so much
#exhorter
#jhojhomahgun
#halleluyahrussian