CNN — Russia was preparing to deliver missiles and other military equipment to the Houthi rebels in Yemen late last month but pulled back at the last minute amid a flurry of behind-the-scenes efforts by the United States and Saudi Arabia to stop it, multiple sources familiar with the matter told CNN. The Saudis, who were locked in a brutal war with the Houthis for years before the US helped to negotiate a fragile truce in 2022, warned Russia against arming one of their biggest adversaries upon learning of the plans, the sources said.
The US, which has been involved in several diplomatic efforts to stop the Russians from arming the Iran-backed rebels, separately asked the Saudis to help convince Moscow not to pursue the effort, two of the sources said. The US-Saudi discussions and the imminent weapons transfer have not been previously reported. The Saudi Embassy in the US declined to comment and the Kremlin did not return a request for comment.
The US designated the Houthis as a global terrorist organization in January, following months of Houthi missile and drone attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea that killed several mariners and hobbled global trade. Despite several rounds of sanctions and US military attacks on Houthi weapons infrastructure, however, the rebels have continued to attack commercial ships in the crucial waterway.
A senior US official declined to discuss the specifics of Russia’s plans to arm the Houthis. But the official said that the US regards any attempt by a third party to bolster the Houthis’ weapons supplies “as antithetical to the goals we are pursuing” when it comes to achieving a lasting peace settlement in Yemen between the Houthis and the Saudis, and helping to stabilize the region. For the Houthis to engage in that kind of weapons transaction, moreover, “would demonstrate to us a lack of commitment” by the Houthis to peace talks, the official said. Currently, the Houthis “appear to be drifting further away from a commitment to a negotiated peace in Yemen,” the official said.
It remains unclear to the US intelligence community whether Saudi Arabia’s pushback was the key to Russia abandoning its plan to arm the Houthis, or whether it was just one of a number of factors that led Russian President Vladimir Putin to change his mind, the sources said. The Russians have viewed arming and advising the Houthis as a way to retaliate against the Biden administration for its decision to allow Ukraine to strike inside Russian territory using US-provided weapons, officials said.
And while the imminent weapons transfer was pulled back, Russia did deploy military personnel to Yemen to help advise the Houthis over a three-day period in late July, the sources said. US officials watched as large Russian ships made an unusual stop in the southern Red Sea, where the Russian personnel disembarked, were picked up by the Houthis in a boat, and ferried to Yemen, the sources said. The Russians carried bags with them, but nothing that appeared large enough to carry weapons or weapons components, the sources said. It is not clear whether the Russian ships were carrying the equipment that Russia had been preparing to transfer to the Houthis before the Kremlin abandoned the plan.
Before and during the Russians’ visit to Yemen, the Houthis took the unusual step of issuing a notice to mariners, which alerts ships to potential dangers at sea. A US official said intelligence indicated that the Houthis had intended to conduct live fire exercises while hosting the Russians, but those plans appear to have been scrapped, too.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/02/politics/russia-weapons-houthis-saudi-arabia/index.html
Comment: James mentioned this story this morning as it was reported at Zerohedge. I noticed it a few days ago when this CNN article was published. My biggest question is what caused the Russians to change their mind. Was it the Saudis or maybe China said something behind the scenes. I also wonder what the Russians would be shipping to Yemen that the Iranians wouldn’t.
No sooner do you post this than we read of a series of Ilyushin cargo transport planes ferrying between Russia and Iran, presumably with equipment and weapons aboard (or it’s a bluff and they’re empty? Doubtful). Sergei Shougu was in Tehran meeting with Iranian honchos on behalf of the RF government. Needn’t be said that whatever it was that was headed to the Houthis from Russia can transit there via Iran. Maybe the US was successful as you report due to the prisoner swap that was in the works – plus the US reportedly called off a Ukrainian assassination attempt against Putin and Belousov which was planned for the Navy day festivities in St Petersburg.
F&L –
Two of the items on those Ilyushins are reportedly Iskander ballistic missiles and a long-range electronic warfare system called Murmansk-BN.
The Iskanders won’t reach Israel from Iran. But they could be moved west.
According to Global Defense News the Murmansk-BN can jam satellite comms.
leith,
The Iskanders seems more like a political payback to me, but any EW system is important and the Russians are good at EW.
The American naval and Air Force power already in the area plus the aircraft carrier battle groups on the way easily not only compensate for whatever Shoigu is delivering but outgun it by a good margin, no? Ray McGovern was just interviewed on Youtube’s Dialogue Works channel and said that he estimates that Shoigu is cautioning the Iranians not to go so far in their response that the US is dragged into the melee. Makes sense.
leith
Thanks. Wikipedia gives 500km as the Iskander range. Hard to see what use they will be versus Israel. The native Iranian missiles are able to reach Israel – might warheads be swapped out from Iskander to an Iranian missile? Sounds dubious.
F&L,
Iran’s missiles of that class are just as effective and accurate. We found that out after we assassinated Soleimani.
F&L –
Al Asad airbase in Anbar and Al Harir airbase near Erbil would be in range of those Iskanders I believe. As would half a dozen or so US combat outposts.
Al Asad just got hit yesterday with rockets from an Iraqi proxy of Tehran. Several troops were injured.
leith,
In the event of all out war I would imagine that the Iskanders could be used to hit Gulf Arab water desalination plants.
Houthis will be fine. US has been trying to defeat them for decades. Impossible. All it takes to defeat the US is seasons. Many seasons of war fighting. Eventually the US quits because it has nothing of value to improve any country or region. The people wake up and make bombs out of lamp wire and fertilizers and that is a wrap. US goes home.
TTG: “I also wonder what the Russians would be shipping to Yemen that the Iranians wouldn’t.”
That’s the rub, I suspect.
The Iranians may have told the Russians that it’s cool, bro, no need to get your hands dirty. Send your stuff to us and that will free up our stuff to send to the Houthi.
Plausible deniability is a thing, after all…..
YR,
Maybe air defense systems. Maybe the Russians see some opportunity for payback. The US has been hitting the Houthis from the air, though it hasn’t been in the media too much.
I’m shocked, shocked to learn CNN hasn’t heard that the Saudi’s joined the BRICS:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-state-tv-says-kingdom-officially-begins-membership-brics-bloc-2024-01-02/
Does CNN know that Russia is in the BRICS? How about “A senior US official” or any of the other “officials” working in the Biden-Harris administration?
Hey CNN, were those ‘bags’ the Russians put into that boat heavy, light, large, small,1,2,3, 100? Curious the Senior Officials didn’t give any adjectives to accurately describe them. (Not curious you didn’t ask, you are CNN) Now if they had been Chinese in TX (definitely NOT heading to NJ for a ‘meeting’) we might have found out what was in them. Besides laundry and cigarettes.
https://www.newsnationnow.com/crime/chinese-250k-gold-bars-seized/
As far as I know the Saudis are participating in BRICS activities but haven’t joined yet. But yes, what to expect of CNN or any channel but Fox et al. 😉
LeaNder,
Or France 24 or whatever you get in Germany. Did they ban the oh so dangerous RT like the French?
I also wouldnt be so sure the arms wont end up being shipped anyway, just much less publicly.
Either way, it doesnt matter much. The Saudis pounded the crap out of Yemen for years, with US intelligence and logistics, and still couldnt stop the barefooted men from the mountains of Sa’dah.
There is no way to beat the Houthis from the air. It would require a large amount of boots on the ground and even then the chances of beating the Yemenis arent great, as many an empire has found out.
One thing you can guarantee? Put western boots on the ground in Yemen in any real numbers and it will unite Yemenis behind the Houthis, cause old enemies to become friends. Even those Yemeni groups/enemies that do not join the Houthis, will begin their own attacks on the western troops.
Wanna send Arab troops to Yemen? LOL, none of them are up to that task.
There is a reason why the Colonel used to talk so highly of the barefooted Yemeni soldiers.
Stefan,
They can be beaten from the air. It’s just a matter of less restrictive ROEs – a realization that little Houthis grow up to be big Houthis and that Houthi women produce little Houthis.
There are also ways to starve them. They’ve done a pretty good job at starving themselves, hundreds of thousand dead by their own callous foolishness. We could turn it into millions.
Just saying – the barefoot MFs are only victorious because we allow them to be.
Eric, during the Korean War President Truman sent a message to General MacArthur, whose army was approaching the Yalu River asking, in effect, if this advance would provoke the PLA to enter the war.
His response was dismissive: the USAF ruled the skies, and so there would be “the greatest slaughter” if the PLA attempted to cross that river.
Less than a week later the PLA took up that double-dog-dare and there was, indeed, great slaughter.
But it didn’t come from the sky, and it wasn’t inflicted on the Chinese.
Longest retreat in US military history, and to this day the US Marines are bitter about how they were hung out to dry when the Army lines broke and the soldiers fled.
Command of the air is a good thing – better you have it than they have it – but all the other side needs to do is to deny your control of the sky and it’s a whole different ball game.
Yeah, Right,
The intel missed all those “volunteers” and, importantly, the ROK army wasn’t willing to stop either. Nor did Truman allow the bombing of Chinese bases once they were actively engaged in the war.
YR,
Think about the Gulf War. That was a massacre of Saddam’s troops, from the air and repeated to a lesser degree in 2003. Desert environments are perfect for victory from the air.
I do fully appreciate that final victory can only be achieved by riflemen doing what infantry has done for millennia. However, a properly executed air campaign against a desert people makes the infantry’s job an order of magnitude easier, almost an afterthought.
Think about the Six Day War, when the IDF did establish Air Superiority. Then compare and contrast with the Yom Kippur War, where they didn’t.
Putting faith in air power is a risky business, because what is your Plan B if you can’t establish the air superiority that you were expecting?
Again, calling for mass murder and genocide in pursuit of your goals. For as much as you claim to hate Islamic extremists, you sure sound a lot like them. Must be the Middle Easterner in you. Christians and Muslims in that area of the world are VERY similar.
Free from the river to the sea is a call for what?
Fred,
A free Palestinian state? It doesn’t necessarily have to mean kill or drive out all the Jews.
TTG,
“It doesn’t necessarily have to mean …”
Are you really that naive to suggest some sophistry as to meaning in academia or MSM or the blogosphere rather than to those shouting the slogan on the streets?
Stefan,
“Again, calling for mass murder and genocide in pursuit of your goals. For as much as you claim to hate Islamic extremists, you sure sound a lot like them. Must be the Middle Easterner in you”
Great insight.
Again, misreading or reading into. Allow me to clarify. The Houthis only continue to exist because no one has gone all WW2 on them, not because they are such awesome fighters.
I further offered Saddam’s military being flatted from the air – which they were – as evidence of what would happen to your buddies in even a fairly limited real air campaign against them if they came out to fight.
I am stating facts, not advocating for a position one way or the other.
Fred, how do you interpret “Give me liberty or give me death”?
Yeah, Right,
A question that George III should have considered before it was uttered by any of his subjects.
Stefan’s analysis is correct IMHO.
What’s with the brand new white hats on some of those Houthis, are they an elite unit or some sort of Praetorian Guard? Lot of grampas in that group though.
The logo on the hats reads “تعبئة عامة” a.k.a. “General Mobilisation” so it’s over- and underage recruits. The slogan has been used by Ansar Allah since 2018, but these white caps appeared first in late December 2023.
Stefan is likely right that there is no way to “beat” the Houthis from the air if the objective is to limit their nuisance potential to remain mostly within Yemen. They are and will remain a feature of Yemen in the mountains, but they have reached well beyond their traditional home turf.
Their revenue streams and access to key coastline could be greatly reduced by air attacks on their infrastructure in Al Hudaydah (which the Israelis did).
A further constraint could be placed on them by providing the required air support to the Government of Yemen and its allies to kick them out of the port. An attempt to do so was sponsored by the UAE and KSA back in 2018-19 and brought the Houthis to the negotiation table.
The lack of follow-on pressure meant however that the agreement reached was disregarded by the Houthis. When in November 2021 the Saudi/UAE and Yemeni anti-Houthi coalition withdrew, Houthis recaptured all of the area. The Saudis are still moping over the costs, still dream to have some sort of Doha Agreement with the Houthis.
Even if militarily possible, for the Saudis, denying access to the Red Sea to the Houthis would not solve the threat that they can strike across the Yemeni-Saudi border inland and use drones against expensive Saudi infrastructure.
I think the Saudi initiative to approach the Russians, to whom they have warmed up starting in the early 1990s as fellow oil exporters, needs to be seen in their priority to find a lasting peace settlement with the Houthis.
Wunduk,
Excellent summary and analysis. Thanks.
Wunduk –
Thanks for the insight.
TTG,
Do the Russians have their own version of the Green Berets? I did some googling and I could not find anything. I am a little surprised because – their lack of success in the SMO notwithstanding – I thought their military was pretty professional.
James,
As far as I know, they don’t. Their spetsnaz units are more commandos than anything else. 10th Group did an exchange tour with the 45th Spetsnaz Brigade back during the brief thaw. The pre-war spetsnaz were more than capable of conducting behind the lines operations, but that capability was pissed away by employing spetsnaz units as assault infantry. Now the units are spetsnaz in name only.
The Special Forces primary mission is teaching others and leading them when necessary. This is not a common mission among military elites. Most are more commando than anything else.
TTG,
Interesting. It will be interesting to see if the Russians and the Chinese are smart enough to try and replicate the Anglo-American strengths in this area.
Seems like general staff was managing the various advisory missions, with the GRU handling the non-state “allies”. Or did they farm it out to Cuba and DPRK?
TTG,
Maybe Wagner group’s imperial efforts in Africa involve some SF type work with the locals.
Eric Newhill,
I think the French Foreign Legion may be a closer model for Wagner operations in Africa.
TTG,
I think you are right. I did read somewhere they were engaged in training some local/indigenous forces.
I only have a high level understanding of what all SF does.
My questiona would be: Who leaked this, Why, and why Now?
Public exposure of this episode makes the Saudis look bad – helping the USA, and by extension, Israel. Leaking the fact that we got the Saudis to ask Russia for a favor makes it much less likely that the Saudis would do us another such favor.
Was this leak authorized by the Biden Admin? I can see how they’d want some credit for a diplomatic success, but it burns bridges, so State would/should have wanted to avoid public disclosure. If not authorized by the Biden Admin, it was presumably leaked by NeoCon moles for their own purposes – but what purpose?
Made me ponder: the Borg, the Blob mindset inside the admin versus ‘NeoCons moles’? Or have we possibly moved beyond those theories?
TTG –
Marginally off topic, apologies.
There’s been a significant attack into Kursk Oblast ongoing for hours. At first it was reported as being a sabotage grouping but it isn’t, it’s full-fledged Ukrainian army with tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. Defense was by border guards and conscripts, who seem to have done ok but it’s unclear. Appears there might be an attempt to seize the NPP at Kurchatov. Very big surprise factor apparently – telegram comments are full of complaints about failure of intelligence. Fatalities are reported on both sides.
F&L,
There’s reporting from enough sources to indicate some kind of attack is taking place involving multiple brigades. Doesn’t appear to be any prepared defensive positions in the area. Maybe we’ll see some maneuver warfare. Don’t know what to make of it yet, but the Ukrainians obviously have some kind of reserve force.
It’s a typical Ukrainian Hail-Mary attempt to steal headlines, so I can only assume they are trying to suck the air out of bad news on the main front(s).
Similar to the Ukrainians badgering NATO to rush four (or was it six) F-16 jets to Ukraine for a photo-op with Zelensky.
Makes no military sense, but is understandable if the Ukrainians want to build a false narrative.
Yeah, Right –
Narrative yes but also bargaining chips in case of peace negotiations which are dreaded by Ukraine due to fears of Trump being victorious in November.
Yeah, because the Russians are such shrinking violets when it comes to negotiations.
RF Duma member says Brits were in on it. Who knows?
———————–
https://t.me/rian_ru/256424
The operation to raid the Kursk region was developed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and British intelligence services, member of the State Duma Committee on Security Shkhagoshev told RIA Novosti.
— Britain participated in all such sorties. English speech was heard—
F&L,
It appears Washington was not informed beforehand, so I’m not so sure London was, either. It would severely damage the Kremlin psyche to say the Ukrainians planned and carried out this cross border operation by themselves. They have to say NATO or just the Brits did it. It’s always been too embarrassing to admit that Ukraine still stands and continues to resist.
TTG: “It would severely damage the Kremlin psyche”….
Why, exactly?
The Russians have always known that the Ukrainian military knows how to organize and commit to battle forces vastly larger than the 1,000 men thrown into this operation. It is hardly likely to make them reach for the smelling salts. Or to drown their sorrows in Vodka.
All this operation will “achieve” is to get the Russians to scratch their heads as they wonder what Zelensky thought he could achieve.
This operation reminds me of the Krynky Bridgehead which so many people here viewed as a bold stroke.
Beached whale, more like.
This will go the same way.
Yeah, Right –
What you say is true but don’t overlook the fact that getting over a thousand Ukrainian army troops out of RF territory is going to be a royal pain in he butt. The Ukrainians have towed in plentiful mobile anti-aircraft weaponry and engineering equipment (for digging in I guess but that’s TTG’s department). You can take heart also that the New York Times article on the Kursk invasion quoted analysts explaining that it was a serious mistake (the Kursk invasion) because it diminishes their chances of holding out in several places elsewhere along the long front. Well, we don’t know yet. Putin has been described as looking nervous on the videos of his meeting with security honchos while Gerasimov addressed them remotely. Put yourself in his shoes — they’re already talking (again) about establishing a “sanitary corridor” … Ok, do the math or the geometry .. that’s a boatload of square miles and it will require very large numbers of men. The silver lining (for the Russians)? They have a strange law which stipulates that RF Army conscripts cannot serve or fight outside the borders of the RF. So they can summon up their conscripts (who are replenished twice yearly) to evict these Ukrainian army brigades and avoid the internal troubles which new mobilization would cause. But it really ain’t pretty nor is it a good look at all to be caught and surprised like this. Plenty of pissed-off commenters in the Russian Telegram channel peanut galleries I peruse. “Kiev in three days” resurfaced immediately along with “Why is Surovikin in Africa?” Apparently Wagner is being summoned back from Africa and they likely will be assigned the task of eviction. That news, how accurate I don’t know, was greeted with applause. The impression of “how do they keep fucking this up again and again” was hard to miss. But you’re right that it’s mostly meaningless other than being an big embarrassment and a really serious pain in the butt. Putin spoke about a sanitary cordon long ago … so what gives? How come this happened?
Where’s the Russian Kamala Harris? (No I didn’t say that did I?)
Kursk used to governed by Kyiv some time in the past.
So maybe they are now borrowing a bit of Putin’s revanchist and turning the tables on him? (snark)
I actually wondered about that…
This belongs up top where we discussed Iskander range. Evidently there’s a variant with 1500 km range which is sufficient for reaching Isreal from Iran.
————————
Russia Reportedly Transfers Iskander and Murmansk-BN Systems to Iran.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/36942
Scroll down to find:
“This raises the possibility that Iskander-K systems, with R-500 cruise missiles capable of reaching 1,500 km, might have been included in the transfer.”
F&L,
Russia is a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime which would in theory preclude them from transferring to Iran missiles with a range of greater than 300km which have a payload of greater than 500kg. But then the MTCR is a verbal non-binding commitment … kind of like James Baker’s famous “not one inch eastward” assurance about NATO expansion.