RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 1 APRIL 2021 by Patrick Armstrong

RUSSIA AND EUROPE. A Levada poll finds the number of Russians – specially the young – who regard Russia as a European country has nearly halved since 2008. Russia is not part of European civilisation in my opinion, but many Russians think it is and they expected to be welcomed home when the USSR went away. Hopeful signs at the beginning were quickly replaced with NATO expansion, hostility, accusations, sanctions and so on. Russians are getting the message. The significance of this is is that many people – and some Russians – regarded Russia as a European country but a defective one; a delinquent who had to be lectured, cajoled and spanked into proper behaviour. Russians who think of themselves as European are prepared to put up with a certain amount of this, but Russians who see Russia as a civilisation-state are not. “For fifty years, secretly and openly, we wanted to live like you, but not any longer.” Original should be read (Googlish) if you want a real Russian perspective.

NEW NWO. Borrell in Moscow, China in Alaska. “The United States does not have the qualification to say that it wants to speak to China from a position of strength.” The Western side opened with the list of “crimes” against the “Rules Based International Order”, in each case the charges were contemptuously thrown back. Once China and Russia were prepared to endure the lectures to get to the real business; but no longer. See “Illegal US Operations” from the MFA. Does not have the qualification. The correlation of forces is changing but the West’s rulers keep doing the same things, previous failure teaching nothing.

WESTERN VALUES™. Remember “rule of law”? Taking a beating these days, isn’t it? Here’s another to add to Meng, MH-17 trial, Assange and Butina. Russians notice: “You and your so called ‘values’“.

FAKE NEWS. A good example of how enmity is implanted by Western propaganda. The headline from the BBC: “Nato intercepts Russian planes ’10 times in a day‘”. Further down we learn “the Russian military aircraft never entered its member states’ airspace”. We are told their transponders were off which could be dangerous, we are not told that NATO refused Moscow’s suggestion that military flights in tight areas leave their transponders on; we are not told how many NATO flights there have been around Russia lately. And so the impression is created that Russians are bad people doing bad things to good people just because they are bad people.

RUSSIA/CHINA. A Levada poll shows Russians’ views of China – pretty favourable. I reiterate that while alliances are based on shared enemies, the relations between the two are deepening and widening all the time. Moving away from Washington-controlled trade systems will be the new emphasis apparently. I would expect, given that neither is prone to boasting, that the two are much farther along on payment independence than they say.

RUSSIA AND COVID. Putin has taken a vaccine and one is being developed for animals.

TRUMP BUYS PUTIN’S PALACE. Ummm… check the date, folks. (Fun to see how far this travels.)

PROBLEMS WITH THE NARRATIVE. Fresh sanctions may barely dent Fortress Russia. Some of the usual ignorance (“Since 2014, Russia has fallen off the list of the world’s ten largest economies”) but far better than most. This also is an attempt to re-think things, but again hobbled by Western arrogance.

AMERICA-HYSTERIA. You’d think now that the Russia/Trump story had served its purpose, they’d stop it. You’d be wrong: apparently, in 2016 the Russian hacked nothing but the election and in 2020 they hacked everything but the election.

STASIS. Civil war in Atlantic council: can’t suggest even the slightest change in behaviour towards Russia. WaPo tells us that China’s rise is exactly the kind of threat NATO exists to stop; that’s absurd – China has taken advantage of American outsourcing its manufacturing, hardly a problem for guns to solve. Putin’s a killer without a soul: pointless outgassing from the weak.

NUGGETS FROM THE STUPIDITY MINE. The ignoramus actually says it.

UKRAINE. Drunken nazis popping off mortar bombs into residential areas, but no real war. US propaganda organs are winding themselves up. Maybe the Russians have sent enough signals to make even the war-crazed in Kiev and Washington think twice. EW equipment in Donbass. Artillery exercise. Disappeared submarine in Med. Paratroop exercise in Crimea. Belarus-Russia exercise. All Black Sea Fleet subs at sea. Second disappeared submarine. Lots of ships in the Med. AD exercise in Crimea. Also a great deal of activity in Syria. And, just for fun, submarines in the high Arctic. So maybe nothing will happen. But, for sure, Moscow’s response will stun everybody.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

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42 Responses to RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 1 APRIL 2021 by Patrick Armstrong

  1. walrus says:

    Western News reports indicate a concerted campaign is underway to blame Russia for any forthcoming attacks in Eastern Ukraine.

    This suggests that Ukraine may attempt a false flag attack in Eastern Ukraine with the objective of entangling NATO in a limited conflict with Russia. The Ukrainian Government political objective of such a strategy might be to force the U.S / European Union to financially support the failing Ukrainian economy. I expect that Nuland/ Kagan et. al. would support such military onanism.

    • Moscow has been thinking about this for a long time. I suspect it will be over before the end of the first verse of Kumbaya. Think 2008 but faster.
      And what’s the West going to do? More sanctions? Russia’s already sanctioned for things it doesn’t do, might as well be sanctioned for things it does do.
      Stop Nordstream? Go ahead, really anger your most important ally in Europe. Russia loses some money and learns a valuable lesson — no more deals with Europe ever. And, once the present contract ends, no more gas to Europe — not worth the pain.

      • joey_n says:

        IMHO if Russia were to write off Europe as a lost cause, then it would mean that the main goal of the Anglo-American globalists – to drive a wedge between the two entities – has been achieved. I believe many in Europe are aware of the dirty game that is being played; heck, it has been said that many of the sanctions aimed towards Russia ended up hurting Europe more, causing billions of euros in lost revenue.
        Thoughts on this?

        • True enough but what to do? You’re trying to build a pipeline the customer wants, everything’s agreed but there’s endless trouble. Based on a fake story the Europeans impose sanctions which hurt them more than they do you. More fake accusations. More rushes to judgement. more sabre-rattling of rubber swords. Eventually, enough is enough and you give up and wait until they come to their senses or don’t.
          It’s not as if you don’t have customers elsewhere

  2. J says:

    Who was the Italian Captain arrested for passing NATO Secrets to the Russian GU?

    https://celebpie.com/walter-biot-biografia-wikipedia/

    • Peter Williams says:

      We may not like traitors, but it seems he had a good reason in that the medical system did not cover the expensive treatment for his daughter. Family or country? Not an easy decision.

      • J says:

        There are many avenues Biot could have used in obtaining funding for his family emergency ‘without’ undermining Italian and NATO’s security . Biot could have sought financial help with the aid of his local Priest, his Italian and NATO military chain of command.

        People don’t think about it, but Unclassified NATO let alone Confidential NATO in the wrong hands can wreck an entire battlefield. Biot had no excuse.

  3. John+Merryman says:

    Long term, Russia, China, Iran, etc. wouldn’t have developed these relationships, without the West being an a$$hole.
    Assuming we avoid all out war, this will serve to integrate the Old World far more significantly, likely dragging Europe along, than it would have otherwise, for the foreseeable future. While the US crashes back into the debt hole that will be the effect of this current bubble.
    This country has no real culture that is not predicated on the geographic, economic and technological expansion of the last couple hundred years, topped off with the debt overshoot of the last forty. Taking the reins of the British Empire gave the elites some creds, so they tried to fit it in with the military machine that didn’t want to unwind after WW2.
    So maybe, in a generation or two, or three, or four, the New World will come to accept its place and role on the planet.
    As the old African saying goes; If you want to go fast, go alone, but if you want to go far, go with a group.

  4. El Sid says:

    So Trump buying Putin’s Pleasure Palace is an April fools joke?

    Richard Littlejohn at the Daily Mail reckons that as far as the western media is concerned every day is April Fools Day now.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9428589/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-taken-April-Fools-day.html

    • True enough. The Dread Pirate Putin has Skripal in the slammer but decides to let him go to Salisbury so he can poison him there; tries twice to kill Navalniy, gives up and lets him go to Germany to tell all. Assad does a CW attack a few kms away from an OPCW delegation as it lands for an inspection. And so on

      • Carey says:

        Our “elites” really show their utter contempt for the little people
        with these transparent stunts like the ones you mention;
        even more so with the “election” of the Democ**ts’ two least popular candidates to the Presidency and VP..

        s/, former Democ**t voter

  5. Seamus Padraig says:

    WaPo tells us that China’s rise is exactly the kind of threat NATO exists to stop; that’s absurd – China has taken advantage of American outsourcing its manufacturing, hardly a problem for guns to solve.

    This is why I can’t take the idea of a cold war with China seriously. Is Washington really gonna try to sanction our largest supplier and foreign creditor? How would that work?

    I won’t take any anti-China campaign seriously until/unless they begin repatriating our factories.

  6. Carl says:

    The consensus assumption seems to be that if the Ukie boys go on the attack, Russia will only retaliate against the Ukies. Just how low is the probability that Russia will interpret the attack as the start of WWIII and respond beyond the Ukraine? It boggles the mind that the Ukie backers would even contemplate making this gamble.

    • Don’t forget that in Crimea Moscow offered the ~20K Ukr troops there 3 choices: 1) take off your uniform and stay 2) join the Russian AF 3) go back to Ukr. Maybe 10% took the 3rd offer.
      Most of the nazis will sober up and run away. most of the Ukr army will surrender or change sides.
      As to all the US/NATO training they’ve been getting — vide Georgia, Afghanistan, Iraq etc etc
      Moscow doesn’t want to go farther — Ukr is ruined and, the farther west Russians go, the more resistance they’ll face.
      (PS the US is being advised and led by people like the ignoramus I quote.)

  7. J says:

    Kremlin says that any NATO troop deployment to Ukraine would raise tensions

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-kremlin/kremlin-says-that-any-nato-troop-deployment-to-ukraine-would-raise-tensions-idUSKBN2BP0O6

    Kremlin says situation along engagement line in Donbass frightening

    https://tass.com/politics/1273439

  8. Tess says:

    The only right side of a new, and defintive, war in Donbass is the real possibility that these especimens got wiped out from the face of Earth…as ahppened to most headchoppers in Syria…Notice that they were recently “liberated”, as they were jihadists from several jails around the Middle East in the verge of Syrian jihadist invasion…

    https://www.stalkerzone.org/tornado-battalion-criminals-are-still-being-released/

    The terror factor on civilians could not be absent in this kind of wars whose lead we know very well where really resides, as they very well know in Moscow…A resident in Crimea posting at The Saker´s is stating this time any foreign operative caught red handed leading troops in the Ukraine front will not be returned without media fanfarria to its side as has happened so far both in the Ukraine and Syria…

  9. Tess says:

    That this time foreign operatives will not be returned silently and will be expossed to the fourth winds to be seen means, imo, the Russians have got the last straw with the West…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSxzwjMvFb8&ab_channel=BritishPath%C3%A9

    Wondering what the Western populations will think of their governments investing in new wars in the middle of the most accute economic crisis produced by both their chronic mismanagement as well as the pandemic and its harsh measures…

    Btw, how much Reuters have changed…as much as “The West” now positioning itself with nazis in the Ukraine…

  10. J says:

    The Ukraine MOD announced Saturday that they’ll be conducting joint military drills with NATO later this year. Exact dates for the joint military drills wasn’t provided.

    https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/1888638861305362

    Colonel,

    From what I can gather from different estimates, Russia has just enough personnel and equipment 5 – 7 Brigades, just enough to create a land-bridge to Crimea, not near enough to take Ukraine or Crimea. For that the Russian MOD would have to pull a large swath from all over the Russian Federation to do it. Which would send U.S. and NATO members on the immediate defensive. We’d be witnessing airlift after airlift from the States to Europe to counter such a Russian offensive. The Russian MOD has been trying to be ‘quiet’ about their reinforcements of their assets in Ukraine, trouble for the Russian’s is that even a minuscule movement gets the immediate attention of Ukraine Military Intelligence, AND the NATO/U.S. Intelligence(s).

    Currently the Russians have 3 reinforced divisions near the Ukraine border. Scuttle is that up to 25 battalion tactical groups from the Western and Southern Military Districts of the Russian Federation are sending these reinforcements for their current assets along the Russian border. Russia is building up their forces inside the Crimea. These reinforcements would give the Russians seven to nine combat brigades supplemental to existing assets. When Russia MOD moves tactical groups in and out of the border areas, they usually announce it. This time Russian movements are not being announced.

    Russia’s incremental build up appears designed to try and create a fog cover which our Intel wouldn’t notice.

    Again for Russian MOD to conquer the Ukraine would require “significant sizeable mobilization” of assets from other areas of the Russia Federation.

    • Russia is not going to try and conquer Ukraine (nor did it try and conquer Georgia in 2008) for all these reasons. If it goes in it will go as far as the population greets it as liberators. (probably most of Catherine’s Novorossiya)
      https://patrickarmstrong.ca/2017/09/22/why-russia-hasnt-and-wont-invade-ukraine/

      • English Outsider says:

        The assertion that Russia was poised to invade the Ukraine was also rebutted by General Kujats on prime time German TV, by French Intelligence reports – and if memory serves was also walked back by President Obama in an off the cuff comment on TV.

        Also rebutted by authoritative sources such as yourself and by other Russia experts.

        Also rebutted by common sense. Russia, for all it’s pulled back from the disintegration of the 90’s, would probably not have the resources to hold down hostile populations long term and would exhaust itself trying.

        In any case as Colonel Lang says recently of the shattered South American countries, regeneration of such failed states as the Ukraine can only come from inside and cannot be imposed. Though, looking at it from the other side, if the West stopped attempting to use the Ukraine as a battering ram that might help a little.

        All this is obvious to plenty of ordinary people in Europe too, I have been surprised to find over the past few years. It is not secret knowledge.

        And yet … Our military and IC are convinced that Russia is a dangerous threat. Our governments are becoming about as Russophobe as could be possible without declaring open hostilities, and seem anxious to provoke even those. What is the source of this drive to conflict with Russia, Mr Armstrong? Why do we waste so much time and resources on this nonsense?

        /

        , if I remember correctly, walkked back by pOfficial Washington sources.

  11. Fred says:

    To that list of “Just that one Guy” you should add Trump. I really liked the story on the US ‘losing’ a Russian sub. It reminds me of my days on the old swayback (which had been commissioned before I was born) when we were tracking on of theirs in the Med and were ordered off so the newest 688 in the fleet could take over and get lots of kudos; I’m sure it was good PR for the Navy budget, though it irritated the hell out of us.

    • English Outsider says:

      It it’s like other Covid vaccines its offers little or no protection for the first few weeks. The Israelis, who used Pfizer, found that in some cases infection rates went up for those vaccinated, presumably because people assumed they were covered right away and were therefore less careful immediately after they’d had the jab. Good results after that initial period.

      The Russians started using their vaccine before it had completed phase 3 trials, which led many to regard the vaccine as suspect. However, it then passed those trials. Also got the thumbs up in The Lancet. Several European countries are using it or are considering using it.

      https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00191-4/fulltext

      • Deap says:

        Two stage Sputnik vaccination of the Argentinian President was completed Feb 11 – reported “Covid” symptom onset on April 4 – nearly two months after the Sputnik vaccination.

        “Testing” for Covid is suspect too, when reports of later flu-like symptoms are reported.

        Considering the global impact of “covid”, it is too bad both testing, illness, death causation and vaccination reliability continue to exist in such a wide gray zone.

        • Tess says:

          What is to be questioned, in the first place, is the definition of pandemic, suddenly changed by the WHO around the A-Flu fiasco…

          Then, it is already even the WHO claimming the PCR tests could be not the most adequate to diagnose Covid-19 infection…

          There there is the claim by some groups of biologysts on that Covid-19 virus, as such, has not been isolated not grown from an infected person ever so far..
          According to the same group of prestigious biologysts the astounding jump from animal to human they say this virus has performed to infect humans around the world is just not possible in nature…

          There are claims on that the genomic sequence of this virus has been developed through mathematical estimate through a computer, but never isolated from a human tissue, like respiratory tissue, where they say it affects the most…

          And so on, and so on, a lot of questions without answer…

          The other day, in an TV interview, the “expert” responsible fro the pandemic in Spain, declared they lockdowned people in the first wave becuase they did not know what to do!

          This speaks volumes on that not all governments are invilved in this planning, but have to follow the line marked by some conflicting interests inside the EU officials…

          To find those conflicting interests, look for people who seat at boards of corporations who are going to reap the benefits of the from now ubiquitous “vaccination passports” and its Orwellian imposition on every people on Earth..

          Also, do not you find very suspicious that after De Santis forbade “vaccination passports” in Florida, on th grounds they would create a two tier society, there was a radioactive water leak there?

          This is a war…amongst those who want to dehumanize Earth through manipulation of human genome ( and by passing, through mass experimentation, find a way to live forever, no matter the casualties provoked in the way amongst the plebs…) and imposs a totalitarian society where nobody can complain about injustice and total control, and the rest trying to follow a natural path in harmony with nature and in a regime of liberties according to progess and human divine nature.

          As we are in Easter, it is not bad moment to recall Revelations 13:7:

          “And the second beast required all people small and great, rich and poor, free and slave, to receive a mark on their right hand or on their forehead, so that no one could buy or sell unless he had the mark— the name of the beast or the number of its name. Here is a call for wisdom: Let the one who has insight calculate the number of the beast, for it is the number of a man, and that number is 666.…”

          https://twitter.com/aylmerpastor/status/1378489039884533762

          • jld says:

            the “expert” responsible fro the pandemic in Spain, declared they lockdowned people in the first wave becuase they did not know what to do!

            But the experts did know perfectly well what to do but it was not in line with “the plan” and was discouraged: TREATMENT of a flu like with hydroxychloroquine and most generally anti-malarial and anti -helmintics (ivermectine) because… Trump approved?
            Ask yourself why Africa has been nearly immune to the “plandemic”, coincidentally they are all gorged with such anti-malarial and anti -helmintics .

      • Tess says:

        On the contrary, AstraZeneca vaccine is provoking increasingly higuer numbers of brain clots, even in really young people around 30 to 50 years who otherwise would be fine, even after having passed Covid-19 infection, which could had passed mildly in them at their age.

        Even many people having passed severe Covid-19 recover completely without sequels, not sure you can recover completely from a brain stroke….

        The cure can not ever be worse than the illness, that is not only unethical, but also goes against any Hypocratic Oath…

        Governments and doctors allowing and promoting this outrage should answer before a tribunal, may be one day…

        All vaccines currently in use have jumped over due phases of mass trials due the “authorization for emergency use” ( AEU ). A vaccine to be safe and know all long term side effects needs around 5-10 years trials.

        It is simply not possible that in the period of a year we have such ammount of new vaccines when in all human history we have been able to achieve only around three dozens.
        Simply, such a lap forward in science in just some months is just not possible.

        There is something more behind this. Any rational person would find it out. Not, of course, scared people being blocked by fear throughout a whole year through all the media and governments officials statements.

        Remember the A-Flu/Tamiflu hoax…

        • Ummm. Is this really the right place to talk about COVID?

          • Tess says:

            Not really, I was just following the turn in conversation which started with the vaccines issue.

            Anyway, where the right place would be to talk about Covid?

            A topic banned at most sites, including alleged alternative media. MoA banns everyone questioning the effectivity of vaccines or the virus origins, as well the narrative of the German government on this pandemic. The same with The Saker…

            We are starting lacking places where to discuss this issue freely and in an intelligent, reasoning way…Why is this happening, I wonder…

          • Pat Lang says:

            Tess

            Feel free to discuss it here in an Open Thread.

  12. J says:

    How does one ‘stir the pot’ regarding Ukraine and Russia? One acronym — OTAN NATO. Ukraine’s top dog is throwing the subject of Ukraine membership in OTAN NATO around.

    “President of Ukraine had a phone conversation with the Secretary General of NATO”

    https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/prezident-ukrayini-proviv-telefonnu-rozmovu-z-generalnim-sek-67813

    Russia has a different viewpoint regarding Ukraine’s membership in OTAN NATO.

    “Ukraine’s admission to NATO will only exacerbate crisis in southeast, Kremlin says ”

    https://tass.com/politics/1274545

  13. J says:

    Russian MOD is deploying the 2S4 Tyulpan to the front lines. The self-propelled heavy mortar able to fire thermonuclear munitions.

    https://defence-blog.com/news/army/russian-atomic-mortars-spotted-moving-toward-border-with-ukraine.html

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2S4_Tyulpan

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