Only four days remain in the deadline established by a coalition of West African nations for Niger to return to democratic rule, a demand that has been shunned by fellow military-led Burkina Faso and Mali, who have jointly warned that any intervention would amount to a declaration of war. While conflict is far from guaranteed, the conditions for a major escalation are quickly brewing on a continent that has played host to some of the deadliest wars of the past century. Such a confrontation would have vast ramifications, not only for the peoples of the Sahel region, but far beyond, with the potential to draw in the likes of the United States, France and Russia among other invested powers.
And with Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Chair Nigerian President Bola Tinubu committed to undoing Nigerien General Abdourahamane “Omar” Tchiani’s takeover of the neighboring nation last week, the threat of a confrontation looms heavy on the horizon. “I think we shouldn’t underestimate ECOWAS’ resolve to see this coup fail in Niger,” Ibrahim Maiga, senior adviser of the International Crisis Group’s Sahel Project, told Newsweek. “Tinubu has shown firmness in terms of seeing this not go through, and Tinubu is loyal for all the strong decisions that he took in his country,” he added. “So, we shouldn’t underestimate his willingness to go that far, including the use of military intervention.”
Maiga, who previously served as special adviser to Mali’s prime minister between two military coups that occurred in that country in 2020 and 2021, was skeptical of Burkina Faso and Mali’s capacity to resist such an incursion through military force, but he spoke to the urgency through which they have responded. “They suspect that, if ECOWAS were to succeed in reversing the coup in Niger, they would all be under threat of seeing ECOWAS coming to their own countries,” Maiga said. “So, it’s actually for their own security too and for themselves.” On the other hand, if ECOWAS fails to restore Niger’s democracy and “if the coup in Niger succeeds,” Maiga said, “I think that other countries should start fearing that something similar will happen to them.”
The high stakes of the situation in Niger extend beyond the Sahel but its causes are ultimately rooted in longstanding issues at home and in the immediate region.
Despite the impoverished conditions in which much of the country’s roughly 25 million people live, Niger is home to a wealth of resources, including uranium that serves as a major export to European nations such as former colonizer France. Niger secured its independence in 1960 and has since experienced intermittent periods of military and democratic rule, the latest of which occurred with President Mohamed Bazoum, who appears to be in custody since his ousting last week.
As is the case in many post-colonial states in West Africa, France has maintained strong influence in Niger, including a military presence. Around 1,500 French troops are stationed there as part of ongoing counterterrorism operations against groups active in the broader Sahel region, including those tied to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State militant group (ISIS).
Niger’s importance to the French military footprint in Africa has grown in recent years as French forces were expelled from neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali, as well as from the Central African Republic. In each of these countries, growing anti-French sentiment has been matched by a swell of support for Russia and its leading private military company, the Wagner Group, whose chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, welcomed Tchiani’s takeover. Russian flags and anti-French slogans were abundant in Niger among supporters of the upheaval and the establishment of the now-ruling National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland. Non-state actors have also seized on the discontent, with a group known as the M62 Movement threatening to detain European nationals until foreign troops are expelled from the country.
Maiga, however, asserted that Moscow’s influence was not the driving factor behind the mutiny and the rise in anti-Western sentiment. Instead, he pointed to factors both local and regional. “It all goes back to the history of colonialism, neocolonialism, but recently what makes anti-French sentiment stronger is the perception that France is not playing a fair game in its fight against terrorism,” Maiga said. While Niger has had greater success in the fight against Sahel-based insurgency than Burkina Faso and Mali, insecurity remains a major issue in the country in spite of a decade of French support. Also weighing on the minds of Nigeriens is a “growing disenchantment with the democratic elite” leading the country who “have not given the example of right and effective governance, addressing people’s needs, performing up to people’s expectations,” according to Maiga. (continued below)
https://www.newsweek.com/countdown-next-great-war-has-begun-africa-1817095
Comment: An ominous title to the article to be sure. If left to their own devices, the West Africans will, I think, find a way through this without adding greatly to the bloodshed or humanitarian crisis. Militarily, I believe there is an equilibrium in the region further constrained by the continuing struggle against the militant Islamists groups.
The people of Niger and elsewhere in the region are tired of the remnants of colonialism. The French military are the foremost symbol of that colonialism. Many of the locals are also asking why their countries are so rich in resources and they remain poor. They’re blaming the local political elites for that as well as the remnants of Western colonialism.
The article makes two points clear. The instability and unrest are largely due to local failures of leadership and management. However, our intervention in Libya unleashed an intensification of militant Islamist group activity that greatly exacerbated those local failures. Any tinkering around on our part beyond encouraging negotiations and maybe some quiet economic bribery will very likely further exacerbate these local problems, lead to greater bloodshed and cause a far larger humanitarian disaster. I don’t think the Chinese or Russians want that, either.
TTG
“Many of the locals are also asking why their countries are so rich in resources and they remain poor.”
They are poor because they get paid peanuts for their natural resources.
Also, the former and present colonial masters encourage internal corruption and conflicts so they can continue controlling the resources.
I predict that soon, the forces of justice and democracy, namely the French and the US will swoop in and take control of the resources.
As former POTUS said with regard to Syria, “I like the oil, we’re keeping the oil”
wiz,
They have the great non-western examples of government: Uganda, Rhodesia, Somalia and post-Mandela South Africa to name just a few. Then there were all the capable leaders that preceded them for a thousand years or so. But now, Westerners did it!
I have a bad feeling our State Dept won’t be able to resist jumping into the middle of this looming war.
The “Great Race for Africa” began in 1880 and was over in 1914. The area Europe controlled was NOT the “bush”. The interior was rarely penetrated by whites (Dr. Stanly I presume?). Britain, France, Germany, Belgium, and Portugal were otherwise involved during WW I. African occupation was resumed in 1920 but was again interrupted by WW II. Europeans started leaving in the late ’50’s and were gone by ’70. Colonial control lasted 34+20+20 about 75 years. For their own selfish reasons Europeans built roads, rails, airports, hospitals, schools, telecommunications, cities, and offered examples of more modern govt. In 1880 Africa had none of these. Then, they left.
Africans controlled the continent up to 1880 and again since 1970; 53 years. What have they given the world, themselves? Not much. Who’s responsible!? Those damned white colonialist. C’mon man, that song is getting old.
Many Africans have figured out that Europeans are not coming back to abuse/help them, so Africans are deciding to migrate to Europe so they can reside in nations built by and run by white Christian dudes.
If you could live in Liberia, Angola, Cameroon, Senegal, or Paris (and on the French taxpayer at that) why would you stay in Africa? You might stay for African civilization, cultural enrichment, medical discoveries, economic opportunities, great universities, growth industries, or social unity and peace. Or you might go to Pareeee. Whilst in France you could explain to the “woke” Parisian crowd how African civilization, beginning w/Lucy 60,000 years ago, was held back by bad Western Europeans for 75 years. You could further explain that despite 53 years of independence for the whole continent, bad western Europeans kept tricking Africans into electing bad leaders. Yeah, that’s the ticket, bad leaders because of Europe.
Billy,
It was David Livingstone and how dare English Christian abolitionists go to Africa to end the slave trade.
Thanks Fred … I knew it was one of them.
Difficult to tell. ‘Africa’ begins with Af just like ‘Afghanistan.’ A dyslexic typist stuck on repeat in the State Department may be in control of the planet’s destiny.
Yep, Fred! West did it with corrupt African “leaders”!
Al,
I am not F&L. Biden won a great victory in Afghanistan. But fear not, you and yours will not serve there or elsewhere.
Reacting to YOUR comment “…but now, Westerners did it…”
al,
It seems reading comprehension declines significantly with age.
You’re right. The destabilization of Libya was a major political error (I have some very close reasons for knowing this). We and others are paying the price.
As for Niger:
Good riddance. Free of this burden at last. But how long will it take for the jihadists and other extremists to make their way up to Europe? If countries north of Syria or in the Gulf help them, they’ll be ready in less than 3 or 4 years. Reminder, November 13, 2015 , Bataclan and other locations: 130 dead and 413 wounded.
War? Unlikely. Acres of sand are not worth the death of a white man. Unlikely. Acres of sand are not worth the death of a white man. If it’s between Africans (ECOWAS), let it be.
Re Libya; a member of the “deplorables”, I knew removing Quaddafi was murder. That is simple truth. Obama, Clinton, Kerry and the Anti-American “New World Socialists” did this and hoped to do the same in Egypt. They’re not friends of the US. That is another simple truth. As to Syria, let’s stop the B.S. We have no legal business in Syria. We did 6 years ago as we were in “hot pursuit” of ISIS. Syria, BTW, had every right to invite Russia and Iran in and not us. So America is in Syria today as an invader. Yet another simple truth. There are those who regal in muddying the waters with legalistic claptrap but truth will out. That’s another simple truth.
Someone has tweeted an interesting graph from The Economist on “Which country do Africans prefer having as economic/political partner?”. Russia is ranked even worse than ‘Former colonial powers’ but China is ranked pretty high.
https://twitter.com/AgatheDemarais/status/1687040621767426048
The appeal of China today is only due to the fact that they are the newest abuser on the block.
China’s “Imperial Fleet” made annual voyages to east Africa in the 14th century. I’ll bet Africans then d/n like the idea of “Kow Dou” to the emperor of China but not many Africans still remember that. Africans will learn that China expects much in return for its companionship. BTW, do any correspondents know which resources Africa has that the Chinese want? Off shore oil of course (fossil fuels yeah man), copper, diamonds, borellium, and, and. African minerals are still in the interior and must be moved to the coast for shipment to China (where is that bad white Cecil Rhodes when you need him? Will there be a yellow Cecil Rhodes?). Do the Chinese see Africans as a market for cheap Chinese products? Many Chinese products require electricity. We are talking sub Sahara Africa; there is no electricity. Interesting times.
“… conditions for a major escalation are quickly brewing on a continent….”
That’s a pretty big place. Will Morrocco and Israel be involved, or just maybe Namibia, Zimbabwe and Egypt?
“Despite the impoverished conditions in which much of the country’s … people live, … is home to a wealth of resources,” Insert Iraq or Afghanistan and you have our foreign policy for the past couple of decades.
” Niger secured its independence in 1960….”……”While Niger has had greater success in the fight against Sahel-based insurgency… insecurity remains a major issue in the country in spite of a decade of French support.”
For 80 years free of France yet still not stable, but the last ten they went back to asking for French help?
“J. Peter Pham, an Atlantic Council fellow ….”
The Atlantic Council, a bastion of neocon interventionist thought. He even managed to get Ukraine into this. Doesn’t he know Russia is already defeated and thus there can be no “great power” confrontation in Western Africa?
“”But the geopolitical dynamics have changed drastically within the past several years. Western countries have very little influence or ability to project power in this region,” he added. “Russia has far more clout than it did even just a few years ago. And, per Beijing’s typical modus operandi, the Chinese are waiting patiently, looking for opportunities to maximize their economic interests without being sucked into a military quagmire.””
This just a few paragraphs after telling us the US has a drone base in the country and the French military has been there for a decade? Sounds like we need to get ready for The Narrative to change from Ukraine to the entire continent of Africa.
Both the UU presence at Air Base 201 and the Niger coup leaders are stuck between a rock and a hard place. By law, we must end all aid and military cooperation if the coup stands. That means the coup leaders lose out on all that aid as well, including support fighting the Islamists. I bet both sides will stage some Kabuki theater actions to resolve the dilemma.
TTG,
“By law, we must end all aid and military cooperation if the coup stands. ”
Good. Let them fight it out all on their own. Maybe Europe can use their own money and influence in their historical colonies and we can go back to telling the decendents of our previous rulers in the UK to shove it and make it stick this time around. You might want to look at the IMF/World Bank history in all those countries. Don’t forget the colonial franc either.
Fred,
The French, their troops and their drones have already been ordered out. I doubt they’ll return anytime soon.
TTG,
The US got permission from which Syrian government to stay in Syria? Which one lets us stay in this country in Africa?
Fred,
We’re in Syria under the auspices of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (Rojava) which gained its de facto autonomy in 2012. It is not recognized by Damascus or internationally, but it’s the defacto authority over that territory for now. The US and EU called for negotiations between Rojava and Damascus to determine final status.
We’re in Niger and several other African states at the behest of the governments of those states.
TTG,
We are there under authority of people not recognized as a government by anyone, which conveniently came into existence how? (Rhetorical question)
Fred,
Rhetorical or not, Rojava came into existence to fight ISIS, something the Damascus government couldn’t do at the time. We don’t even recognize Rojava as an independent state, just the de facto government in the region.
TTG,
Just what was the Syrian government fighting, other than the color revolution sponsored by Obama? The archives hold a clue…
Fred,
ISIS. How soon you forget.
TTG,
You mean there was no rebellion or color revolution. right.
Fred,
The rise of Rojava was independent of the Syrian revolution or color revolution if you prefer. The Rojava Kurds had no use for the Arab Spring.
“We’re in Syria under the auspices of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (Rojava) which gained its de facto autonomy in 2012.”
Not even Jen Psaki would be able to say this without blushing.
What a fucked up bunch of creeps in charge over there. Utterly ridiculous bastards. Reputation in the sewer for another half century at least. Geniuses of public relations too. They’re making our leaders look good which I thought was impossible. Get someone down down down. Then kick him. Courage. Hey, don’t forget to beat up on some fags and trannies before the weekend is over. They might topple your regime of he-men. Morons. I don’t even particularly like Navalny. But this is prehistoric. Is trial by ordeal next?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/04/russian-court-extends-alexei-navalny-sentence-in-penal-colony
I forgot to add that the US and UK are equally evil or worse – see Julian Assange, Edward Snowden and Chelsea Manning. The English language spelling of Putin is
O b a m a – who charged more people with espionage than the sum total of all previous presidential administrations back to 1776. I knew that Mark Twain was prophetic with his final novel “No 44 The Mysterious Stranger.” He foresaw the end of the Republic. Critics couldn’t figure out what the number referred to. Then I got it after reading that Twain was a believer in ESP due to having had a premonition of his own brother’s death. There’s no medals for figuring out these things, not so mysteriously. So Putin is just par for the course.
F&L,
Chelsea Manning has been fully pardoned by the USG. Edward Snowden is/was a US citizen charged with espionage. He is not in US custody. Assange is not a US citizen and owes no allegiance to the USG. Also not yet in US custody, I believe he’s also under espionage charges. His is the most worrisome out of those three prosecutions. Most of what he’s done is journalism.
Hopefully the Russian government can avoid inflicting on Navalny the brutal year of torture in solitary that Chelsea was forced to endure (for nothing in my opinion and many others) and release him without forcing him to undergo sex change surgery and hormone treatments, as seems might very well have happened in happy America with 700+ mass shootings per year and a former President who led an insurrection when he wasn’t being convicted of rape and bribing Store-Me Daniels.
F&L,
Manning was convicted of several espionage counts, but was judged not guilty of aiding the enemy. The pre-trial confinement conditions were especially harsh and I believe uncalled for, but the need for some kind of suicide watch was apparently real. She wasn’t forced to undergo hormone therapy and sex change therapy. She fought for and won the right to undergo those treatments. Trump wasn’t convicted of rape. He was found liable for sexual assault. It’s much like the OJ Simpson case. He was not convicted of murder, just found liable for it.
“She” you buy into that marxist crap? Sad.
Well, the countdown to the first one arguably began in Africa (with the Moroccan Crisis in 1907) so I guess it is only fair Africa get another shot , , , ,
John Minehan,
You can also go back another 100 years to the exploits of “General” William Eaton, a cantankerous Connecticut Yankee who raised an indigenous force out of nothing, marched it across the desert and seized Derne. Presley O’Bannon gets all the credit, but it was Eaton who stood up when all seemed lost and led a charge against an enemy that outnumbered him 10 to 1. Give that man a green beret.
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/1941/april/william-eaton-hero-derne
https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/general-william-eaton-to-the-shores-of-tripoli/
I suspect this is the ?Century of Africa,” as the last was the “Century of Asia.”
Too bad the entry argument is having wars fought over your natural and human resources.
Very true about William Eaton, not to slight the USMC . . . .
I think the title is prescient. At first I wondered how again the CIA missed something like this coup?? Then, when Mali and Burkino Faso threw down the military gauntlet, I thought, “ok then.” The stage is being set for major war. And just to not leave out any opportunity, Human Rights Watch is asking for the US to “do something” in Sudan.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/4/human-rights-watch-urges-us-to-stop-atrocities-in-sudans-darfur
Condi Quote…….”Who Could Have Anticipated”….State Department Rule
One..Dont Anticipate…CIA..Only ask if FRANCO is Still Alive..But
Dont Anticipate What Rains in Spain if He Dies..
Africa..NOT on our Radar…They have 500 Million in USA Military Aid to Niger
and Hope We send More…While They Get Dished up with Macaroni and
Chicken Peas from Islands in the South Pacific..Nigeria Cut off Nigers Power
and Now They are Playing Wagner Operas again..Full Volume..
JT