Rasmussen polling indicates that Trump's general approval rate for job performance is around 50%. The Left doesn't like Rasmussen because it doesn't like their outcomes. At the same time CNN's polling indicates that its latest poll has Trump's performance on the economy approved by 56%. The latest economic data show that that the US economy added 263K non government jobs in April with an unemployment rate of 3.6%. All the rest of the statistics are pretty much straight up. This should mean an easy re-election for Trump but his personality is a major obstacle to that. He offends women easily as a frightening presence on the TeeVee. The Democrats are doing their best to denigrate the strength of the US economy, harping on things imperfect in the world of Trump but it is a lame effort. People don't all make the same amount of money? Really?
Most of the field of declared Democratic aspirants for Trump's job have skated far to the Left in an effort to out-Marxist each other Their proposals include every far left professorial fantasy known to man.
Bernie Sanders is at the head of that list, somewhat embarrassed by his 25 year old honeymoon trip to the USSR. Did he actually sing the Internationale while a bit tipsy on vodka? And then there is the matter of his millionaire status and numerous properties. They do make him look a bit like a member of the rentier class. But, as he says, who can really begrudge him his hard earned wealth? This grandpa looks a bit goofy these days.
And then there is uncle Joe Biden. As he said proudly the other day, "I am a union man." He was speaking at at aTeamsters "temple." Behind him were arrayed a handful of union employees who included several bored looking young people. There were not a lot of people in the room overall.
The problem with both Joe and Bernie is that they are lost in time, different times.
Joe is still a Walter Reuther style CIO guy, firmly believing a theory of labor relations in which the managers and the stockholders are ALWAYS bad, selfish, venal people who must be resisted and defeated in a permanent zero-sum game. That was the world he grew up in and he never got over it. As I have said before, Joe ain't too bright.
Bernie is trapped in another past time. He believes in his bones that Blacks and other minorities are still suffering under Jim Crow as well as capitalism in general. Blacks are not suffering under Jim Crow but for Bernie Blacks are more of an abstraction than anything else. That can be seen in his behavior in campaigning in South Carolina. This was written up in today's edition of Bezos' DC blog (Washpost) A woman former South Carolina state representative complains therein that Bernie just doesn't relate as a human. He would rather give speeches from the dais.
Beto, the inane, is not a serious candidate.
Pete Butagieg looks like a better bet, but the truth is that a lot of Americans will not vote for a gay man (or woman) to be president. They won't admit that in polling, but they are lying. Much the same thing was true of Romney over his status as a latter day saint.
Trump may defeat himself but the Democrats are not impressive. pl
The only democrat that can beat Trump is Tulsi Gabbard. The DNC and pressure from MIC and Israeli interests won’t let her get far though.
How about a woman who is against regime change wars, for medicare for all, and surfs?
Good analysis. The Democratic Party field of candidates seems to be a bunch of nobodies except for Biden and Sanders. I wonder if potential candidates like Bloomberg, Brown, McAuliffe, etc., suspect Trump is certain to win and that’s why they’re sitting out this time?
I don’t understand why Trump supposedly scares so many women. To me, he’s a too-talkative boor at times but at least not much of a phony like almost all professional politicians. What you see is what you get.
I live with my husband in a midwestern urban core neighborhood and when weather warms up, unenclosed vehicles known as “pedal wagons” routinely make the rounds of downtown bars. About a dozen people sit on 2 parallel benches while drinking, and pedal mightily to propel the vehicles. Imagine if you will how obnoxious a wagon filled with drunks may be. THE worst offenders though are BY FAR women (almost always suburban women), especially bridal parties. Bar owners and employees hate these groups but are forced to abide by them unless matters get too far out of hand. In addition, I know women (all Democrats) who live in the wealthiest suburbs around here who’ve succumbed to the tattoo trend. SO, I just don’t understand the bit about Trump scaring suburban women. They often scare ME.
One can hope Tulsi connects with the voters during the debate. That said, the Dems would rather lose to Trump than lose their gravy train from their top donors and speak to the working class (as opposed to virtue signal).
Trump’s weakness is that he has not reigned in the forever wars which he promised to reign in. The Pentagon now says we will be in Syria for ever – almost like he is not actually running the US FP. Here, Tulsi is the only candidate who has strength.
“That said, the Dems would rather lose to Trump than lose their gravy train from their top donors and speak to the working class (as opposed to virtue signal).”
That is my impression, too. They think they could salvage the situation in 2024 if their DNC corporate candidate loses in 2020, but they risk letting the discontent grow so much that their party breaks up or disappears altogether. Unrealistic? This can happen faster than it might seem, the Conservative Party in the UK is having this problem right now after their completely incompetent handling of the Brexit negotiations.
Apparently Bernie has already signed a loyalty agreement to the nominee. The strategy with Tulsi is to dilute her time at the debate and blacklist any campaign professionals from any other work. Bernie’s role (again) is to be a sheepdog for the DNC. The fix is in. And yes, the donor model’s continued existence is preferable to beating Trump.
Col. Lang
I think your analysis is spot on. Neither Bernie nor Grandpa Joe can defeat Trump. His understanding of the current political zeitgeist and his style knocked out Bush & Clinton. He’s been running for 2020 for sometime and his campaign organization under Brad Parscale has been up & running too.
While headlines on the economy seem very upbeat, beneath the surface data are showing that headwinds are getting stronger. Autos, semiconductors, durable goods, furniture are slowing when you see company earnings reports from 2018Q4 on. There’s a reason why Trump, Pence & Kudlow are coming out so strongly screaming at the Fed to lower rates & restart QE. They want the stock market to be kept juiced up. I’m reading many private analyst reports that a deal with China will be all about the headline and buried in the details nothing would have changed to hold China accountable for theft and there will be no action to prevent China’s continuing infiltration & purchase of key talking heads & lobbyists.
I get your view that while you admire some of Tulsi’s positions that she’s not going to get out of the starting gate. I will continue to contribute to her campaign and will re-register from my traditional non-partisan status to Democrat to vote for her in the primary. My vote is not a bet at the race track on the winning horse.
Well I am a woman and Trump doesn’t scare me. He does disgust me though. I also don’t think he’s ‘smart’ and do think he’s as phony as a carnival barker’s come on.
Of course some people have a different definition of smart than I do.
And no I didn’t support Hillary or vote for her,so this is not a partisan opinion. I dislike the republicans and democrats equally.
Narcissists would prefer to destroy the party if they can’t control it themselves. The party is simply a means to an end for them. If they can’t benefit from it, then they don’t care if it dies.
IMHO Sanders would whip Trump but the corrupt Dem party would rather lose than have Sanders as its candidate. I mean, they already showed us this as they cheated again and again in 2016 to advance their corrupt grifter warmonger monster candidate and shut out Bernie.
But both major parties are actively destroying any federal government program that actually benefits ALL citizens. Trump and the Republicans have just cut Medicare by several hundred billion, medicaid by about a trillion, and social security by another several hundred billion. They would rather profit their pals by making the sick and the poor be miserable and die. Nice group of people these.
Finally – a word on Trump and his effect on women – IMHO he doesn’t scare them – he doesn’t scare my wife – they just find him vulgar and disgusting, selfish and ignorant – what woman would want a man like that other than for advancement? Who wants a vulgar, selfish, loud, domineering lover? No woman I know……
With your indulgence, Colonel, another thought on a foggy Sunday Morning in turkey season:
Sexual attractiveness of candidates – apparently important, per the Parties – consider the promotion of Beto on the Dem side (and Obama’s appeal was also strongly sexual on the distaff side) and (tho less obvious on the Republican side) consider Sarah Palin, quite the hottie herself. SO please do not underestimate this aspect of Tulsi Gabbard – she is super attractive besides her character and ideas which are also exemplary.
My dream ticket – Sanders/Gabbard 2020. They would win bigly. It would mean total gridlock but to me this is a feature not a bug.
The statement characterizing that Biden somehow believes “the managers and the stockholders are ALWAYS bad, selfish, venal people who must be resisted and defeated” is at odds with his lengthy record as a handmaiden for corporate interests.
Biden was the senator from Delaware, the home of more corporations than people on the planet. The fact that he shakes down labor unions for contributions doesn’t mean he’s doing much of anything to support unions; their membership decline accelerated under Obama/Biden.
Biden voted to repeal Glass-Seagall which was fuel for the financial crisis. He voted to disallow discharge of student loan and credit card debt for individuals in bankruptcy.
A year ago he addressed Brookings saying “I don’t think 500 billionaires are the reason we’re in trouble. The folks at the top aren’t bad guys.”
I agree Biden is lost in time. Even union members know the “hopey-changey thing” didn’t work out.
D – Yes, Biden is unfaithful to his shallow and ill conceived beliefs.
divadab – “vulgar and disgusting, selfish and ignorant” Yes! Yes! A New Yorker. If Sanders were elected with Gabbard she might have some difficulty when he quotes the Communist Manifesto in his inaugural speech.
I’m not so sure Trump would win against Sanders, not because he has a big mouth (Trump needs to ‘reach in’ to whites, and the majority of white women except ones with masters degrees and above voted Trump), but because Republican orthodoxy has dissuaded him from *structural* economic nationalism.
‘Marxist’ is no longer a killshot, and the centrist obsession of unending chatter – ‘conversations on the issues’ – have worn thin with the public. This is why the likes of AOC are attractive. They articulate a bold vision of the common good, and when weaseling wonks raise objections, they are brushed off. The electorate is distressed, overwhelmed, bored, cynical, combative, polarized, and negatively emotionally charged all at once. The do not care about the fact checking cult, or the grandiose abstractions the centrist wings of both parties traffic in.
With respect, not in the least incompetent. The aim is to keep us closely aligned with or in the EU and so far they’ve been remarkably successful. Kamikaze, perhaps, but that’ll depend on how long the collective memory of the electorate is.
All in all I’d say that our swamp has handled reversing the Brexit vote better than your swamp handled reversing the Trump vote. Don’t want to be nationalistic about it but there’s no contest. Our swamp’s superior to yours. So there.
I submitted a video to the Colonel’s site recently that put all this in less triumphalist tones. If I may I’ll re-post it here –
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=7&v=4PK1vByfK_I
My interest was in the context of US/UK defence relations and how that fitted in with the Steele affair. But in the course of the video other subjects are covered and one of them is the subject you raise. If you have time to watch it you’ll see what I mean. No contest. When it comes to exceptionalism we own the exceptional swamp. Or it owns us. Haven’t worked that one out yet.
Biden: “There were not a lot of people in the room overall.”
A security officer told me there were “no more than 650 people” in the hall.” Another 50-75 people watched a jumbo screen in the parking lot. A number of vendors of T-shirts & buttons rimmed the area. No food vendors: the union Temple is at the end of about 10 blocks of coffee shops & small restaurants. Not a lot of Black faces in the crowd, tho Jill Biden introduced a Black female teacher who told her story and endorsed Joe.
Tim Ryan opened his campaign in the open air in the middle of W. Federal St. in downtown Youngstown, OH (approximately. in front of where the old Warner theater used to be: Warner Brothers got their start in Youngstown, OH – Sharon, PA.)
No Jumbotron — likely a smaller budget than Biden’s but the crowd was more organized and engaged with Tim, whose family and friends circulated and engaged in genuine conversation. Joe just kind of mingled w/ those of the crowd at the edge of the platform — most left by the rear door as soon as Biden’s prepared comments ended. But at Ryan’s event, a line was created for the crowd to file along and shake Tim’s hand, exchange a word, take a photo. Tim’s crowd was at least as big as Biden’s, but a lot more Black people. The Black mayor introduced Ryan, and a Black preacher led a prayer. Several food vendors served local, ethnic favorites.
Since then, haven’t heard Ryan’s name so much as whispered, but imo he made the better presentation of the two, and was more genuinely supported by his audience. Does not appear any big money is behind Ryan.
The DeBartolo family (shopping malls, SF49ers) started out in Youngstown and, tho most family members have moved away, they still contribute a great deal to Youngstown cultural, religious and social causes. But they don’t spend the kind of money Ryan would need to be truly competitive. Warner family does nothing in the area (except for a small project in Sharon, PA).
It’s embarrassing to contemplate AOC’s “bold vision” in view of the China -led Belt Road Initiative.
BRI just concluded its second annual conference with 5000 delegates in attendance. Our closest ally, Israel, snared several strategic spots in the Deliverables.
USA was not represented.
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/china-and-russia-whoopin-uncle-sam-at-his-own-game/
agree
it is very likely the DNC will revise the minimum number of contributions needed to participate in the debates to a number that is above what Tulsi has.
Sir – Sanders ain’t no Commie – if he were, how is it he gets 20-40% of the Republican vote in VT?
He’s an old school peoples’ politician – he works very hard, and his approach is to benefit the most people rather than profit the few. I suggest you visit Burlington, which is a fine little city and much more livable and walkable thanks to Bernie’s work as mayor. And talk to Vermonters – in the main they think he’s one of the good guys and they really appreciate his work ethic.
I don’t agree with some of his policies – mostly the ones like free college tuition that have no chance of being implemented – but for an idea of how practical a politician he is consider his position on gun control. As a man from a State where the first day of hunting season is reserved for first-time young hunters – last year the first buck in Orleans County was taken by a nine-yr old – his policy is practical, unlike those of the effete liberal elite who are gun abolitionists. Of all the Dems in the race I think he has the highest NRA rating.
Yes he is very old. He woulda been Pres today but for the lying cheating bribe-taking scum that run the Dem party.
divadab – Vermont is a peculiar state, a mixture of flinty old line Yankees and refugees from the sixties like Ben and Jerry. IMO you can’t tell anything by Vermont OK, he is a heretic Commie.
Colonel – yes VT full of independent thinkers and has been since Ethan Allen and the boys sent the NY State surveyors packing minus their horses and gear. And don;t forget the substantial French Canadian population – probably the most conservative of the lot.
I’m not sure red-baiting Sanders is the most effective strategy because clearly he is a practical American politician of the New Deal variety (and how corrupt and stupid the Dems are to run away from their New Deal legacy that put millions to work in the worst depression in US history) and about as communist as a Church supper.
For the Many, not just the Few. Call it commie if you like but with the .1% grabbing more and more and more loot like flipping termites with the apparent approval of both Ds and Rs his message resonates.
divadab
I am not “red-baiting” anyone. What are the functional differences between the policies that he wants and those that any communist would want?
Hmmmmm – well single payer healthcare is a policy which only the USA of all the G8, G20, n’importe quoi, does not have. I think a communist would, as you say, want this, but a communist also wants motherhood and tarte aux pommes. Just because Hitler was a vegetarian doesn’t make every vegetarian Hitler, no?
SO with respect to policy, I think “medicare for all” is top notch and long overdue for the citizenry. I mean, 80% of bankruptcies are due to medical debt. The profiteers are controlling a public good.
Also protecting and supporting policies that benefit EVERY citizen – SOcial Security, Medicare, the national parks, the postal service – here’s another Sanders policy which is great – creating a postal savings bank as they have in Australia. Many towns in America have a Post office and no bank – this would be a boon to rural areas and provide a useful source of revenue to the postal service.
Sanders is a true blue socialist in the New DEal mold. I’m not – I’m a capitalist top to bottom, never had a government job always private sector – but I recognize the value of socialists – teachers, policemen, firemen, etc. The people who provide public goods to ALL. And our society has become so unbalanced so that private capital rules all it is hurting the social structure of the country. The utter obscenity of the profiteers who control insulin increasing the price FORTY-FOLD – because they can – these people are criminals in my book. Government should regulate these scum and that is what Bernie Sanders is all about.
Anyway thanks for indulging me, kind sir. And thanks for your informative website.
OK divadab, thanks for making your identity clear.
effect on women … lover?? fuckability? ….WTF (so to speak)!!???
that vulgar+selfish+loud+domineering array is hardly unusual and can even be likeable, particularly if offset with funny. Look at the number of women who marry.