"But within the last two months, U.S. analysts with access to classified intelligence have started to challenge this precept, noting a "significant and disturbing disconnect" between apparent advances on the political front and efforts to reduce insurgent attacks.
Now, with Saturday’s constitutional referendum appearing more likely to divide than unify the country, some within the administration have concluded that the quest for democracy in Iraq, at least in its current form, could actually strengthen the insurgency.
The commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, Army Gen. George W. Casey, has acknowledged that such a scenario is possible, while officials elsewhere in the administration, all of whom declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the subject, say they share similar concerns about the referendum.
I have been saying for some time (to mixed reviews) that the constitutional process in Iraq was an interesting exercise in the transfer of power from one group to several others and was remarkable but essentially irrelevant to the out come of the insurgency war. Looks like official opinion has come around to that on the part of those not driven by ego or ideology. The Sunni Arabs must feel it is worth their while to support the new constitution.
Bottom Line: No National Compact – no peace.
I feel like the constution and elections are part of a process in which we can declare victory and come home.
Their relevance to the aactual Iraqi situation seems less important. Indeed as you point out they may worsen the situation, but he goal is to *say* we brought them democracy.
PR for the American public.
Add to that the rising drumbeat from influential retired gnereals (such as Odom) or major natl security thinkers like Edward Luttwak (see today’s LA Times), and the appearance of a serious “withdrawal” marketing campaign is underway.
Just in time to complete a major pullout prior to the Nov 06 midterms.
In nothing else, the cabal in charge now is predictable. To bad Katrina spoiled their early fall product roll-out.
Natinal compact can only exist when done by credible people. People who can fight and vouch for their words.
(ie. that is why all people who create/sign constitution of ANY countries are usually important military/social figure who can turn the entire thing upside down on a dime)
In Iraq, all the people who signs are just bunch of puppets. Everybody knows when we pull out, they are the first to be hanged in public square, so their words doesn’t mean a thing. Hence, there is no national compact. Nor a possibility of national compact as long as all the people in there are ‘our bastards’ instead of credible Iraqis leader.
Everyone of those people we isntal cannot answer very basic Iraqi question. ‘Who are you? why should I listen/fight for you? and why are you working with the occupation force while the people suffer?’