"But within the last two months, U.S. analysts with access to classified intelligence have started to challenge this precept, noting a "significant and disturbing disconnect" between apparent advances on the political front and efforts to reduce insurgent attacks.
Now, with Saturday’s constitutional referendum appearing more likely to divide than unify the country, some within the administration have concluded that the quest for democracy in Iraq, at least in its current form, could actually strengthen the insurgency.
The commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, Army Gen. George W. Casey, has acknowledged that such a scenario is possible, while officials elsewhere in the administration, all of whom declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the subject, say they share similar concerns about the referendum.
I have been saying for some time (to mixed reviews) that the constitutional process in Iraq was an interesting exercise in the transfer of power from one group to several others and was remarkable but essentially irrelevant to the out come of the insurgency war. Looks like official opinion has come around to that on the part of those not driven by ego or ideology. The Sunni Arabs must feel it is worth their while to support the new constitution.
Bottom Line: No National Compact – no peace.