"My conclusions, tentatively, on the Lebanon "war""
-the main battle tank (and indeed most armored vehicles) are increasingly vulnerable to modern weaponry…the balance has shifted in favor
of infantry firing missiles, and this trend can only continue unless some new light-weight impenetrable armor can be devised.
-the same can be said for the helicopter gunship, as evidence by the recent US cancellation of the new gunship program over vulnerability to missiles
-both of these factors point to the increasing importance of infantry over more advanced systems, which is a boost for less well equipped guerrillas
-the power of "Air Power" is vastly over-rated by western militaries, and they will no doubt continue to rely on it more and more, which is why any campaign in Iran is doomed to failure before it starts (also because bombing infrastructure only angers the population and stiffens resistance)
-western military doctrine in general sems to be moribund, preparing to fight the next WWIII on the WWII model..witness the US obsession with locating military bases all over the world to "encircle" future enemies like Iran, China etc.
-popular movements like Hezbollah can not be defeated by any kind of military force…they may be suppressed, but they will rise again unless the geo-political reasons for their having come into existence are not addressed
-the leading cause of modern Islamic terrorism is 60 years of bad foreign policy by USA/UK…or to put it more bluntly, when you go into other peoples countries at will to interfere, you only make more people angry at you – I read that Osama founded Al-Qaeda in 1982 because he saw on TV the Israeli devastation of Lebanon. How many new Al-**** have been created by the last month’s events, I wonder. (I am not excusing religious fanaticism, but more than religious differences are required to motivate suicide bombers, there has to be perceived "unjust" action from the other side too
I have more thoughts, will assemble them for a future post – keep up the good work people. Too bad nobody in Washington in a position of real influence seems to be listening. In short, IMHO America as a nation has lost its way, mistaking aggression for wise policy. Wise might be someone who can recognise a situation that they do not like but have to accept for the sake of future stability." Got a Watch