“Americans’ political party preference during 2021 shifted from Democrat to Republican in the largest move since Gallup began regularly measuring party identification and leaning in 1991.
Democrats went from a nine-percentage-point advantage in the first quarter of 2021 to a rare five-point deficit to the GOP in the fourth quarter, Gallup said Monday.
A total of 49% of Americans considered themselves Democrat in last year’s first quarter, but that fell to 42% in the final quarter. Survey respondents identifying as Republican increased from 40% to 47% during the same period.
The survey results were based on aggregated data from all U.S. Gallup telephone surveys in 2021, which included interviews with more than 12,000 randomly sampled adults.
The fourth-quarter numbers belied the overall 2021 average that said slightly more U.S. adults identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic (46%) than identified as Republicans or leaned Republican (43%).
Gallup’s latest monthly estimate, from December, showed the two parties about even — 46% Republican/Republican leaning and 44% Democratic/Democratic leaning.”
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/gallup-party-affiliation-identify-gop/2022/01/17/id/1052719/
These results bundle party and party-leaning independents, so “Democrats” really means Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents, same for Republicans.
Using a moving average of this poll shows that party affiliation is fairly stable, Democrats and Republicans are even at 28%, Independents are at 42%. In early 2020 results were Republicans 30%, Dems 31%, Independents 36%. Party affiliation has changed very little, if anything both parties have lost affiliation and more people identify as Independents.
So the reported swing is Independents switching from the party-leaning category to non-leaning Independent and vice-versa, not growth in core support. This seems to be a typical mid-term sentiment swing against the party in power, rather than a more permanent shift in sentiment.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
The first step on the road to recovery is acknowledging there is a problem.
The Republican/Democratic parties are bought – paid for – wholly owned subsidiaries of oligarchic power that dictates national policy behind a tissue paper thin veneer of democratic governance.
https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mgilens/files/gilens_and_page_2014_-testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf
What this nation truly needs a viable third party that puts the interests of the nation and the majority of it’s people ahead of the interests of a ruling cabal.
Good luck with that. We haven’t seen one of those in a couple centuries, but ee did get Ross Perot and Ralph Nader. Look where that got us.
Nothing that a little mail-in election couldn’t fix. 😉
When one side of the uniparty takes control is reminds everyone how awful they are.Then the other side takes over rinse and repeat.
A mixed bag of bumbling Senators in Ukraine were my daily reminder.
Even in California: GOP + Independents numbers = numbers of Democrats.
Independents choose not to be labeled Democrats – we need to know why. Because they choose to not be labeled GOP either. Which way do their independent winds blow?
The easiest way to keep this stable is control the election. If it swings too far one way swing it back the other. But not too much. Just enough to keep the spinning plates going. The GOP plates lost a lot of momentum. Need to give it some attention which they will. If they use AI even better. It can figure out the order of the plates and how much force.
Pendulum swings to Tweedle Dee from Tweedle Dum. Two sides of the same fascist coin.
The size of the sample gives it a modicum of validation, but let the Dems come up with some freebie and/or “woke” BS and watch these numbers reverse.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10413077/DeSantis-NOT-bend-knee-Trump-says-backing-ex-president-2024-ask.html
The next media scrum.
If both do run in the next GOP presidential primary if nothing else it will be entertaining. Trump’s debate shtick is now known. Unlike Jeb, I don’t believe DeSantis will be deer in the headlights. Trump will of course start with the $250 million he collected for “Stop the Steal”. Waaaay in the future and a lot will change from now until then.
The lefty news people really need some clickbait to gin up a controversy- with yet more anonymous sources.
This deplorable stuck with Trump. But now I think it is time for him to step back and play kingmaker.
yes. for his own sake, this…
https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1483811873850073089?s=21
This is absolutely true. The Republicans are also big backers of Big Business including Big Tech. They’re card carrying members of the Party of Davos. The best example is the bipartisan collusion between Bill Clinton’s administration and the Republicans in Congress with guys like Phil Gramm who gutted Glass-Steagal and “deregulated” the financial industry to enable the complete financialization of the US economy and primacy of speculative capital with a Big Government backstop.