The question has been raised on SST of the true import of DJT's remark to the little guy from ABC that Iraq did not attack the US on 9/11 but that he thinks he knows who really did. By process of elimination it is easy to understand of whom he speaks; not Israel, not Saudi Arabia, not Turkey, not the Vatican, probably not the British (joke).
Iran? Bingo!
After all, Iran is revealed as the source of all evil, something like the Nazis but potentially more dangerous (another joke) and at some points in history Iran has helped Sunni fanatics; Hamas, AQ field men trained by Hizbullah in Lebanon …
Ah! Hah! If that is so then the general purpose AUMF can be tortured into providing legal authority for Trump to order any level of lethal military activity against Iran for however long he wishes to continue it, or until January, 2021, whichever comes first.
Trump has no clue whatever about anything not analogous to a real estate deal or business public relations with the public. A combination of excessive Tee Vee 24/7 news and "briefings" from Bonkers Bolton and his crew seem to have convinced DJT that to be "the man they thought he was" he must punish Iran. My guess is that the first blow will be air strikes east of the Hormuz Strait against facilities supposedly the locus of such horrors as a SAM-7 attack against a Raptor drone from the fleet. (BTW, the SAM-7's effective range is such that drone must have been in Iranian airspace).
And BTW, pilgrims, Ole First in his Class is down in Tampaland today jawboning the leaders of CENTCOM (Mideast), and SOCOM (badass commandos worldwide). Why is he there? The Secretary of State has no constitutional or legal role in dealing with the armed forces. That being the case one can only think that there is push-back from senior commanders over the prospect of war with Iran and that Trump has been persuaded to let him do this unprecedented visit to wheedle or threaten his way into their acquiescence. pl
https://www.vox.com/2019/6/14/18678809/usa-iran-war-aumf-911-trump-pompeo
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/pompeo-meet-u-s-commanders-amid-growing-crisis-iran-n1018356
Here’s an interesting side piece that we saw coming here a long time ago…
https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium-in-israel-with-netanyahu-at-her-side-miriam-adelson-places-her-bet-for-2024-1.7376446
Even Bellingcat is skeptical. Bellingcat.
https://washingtonsblog.com/2019/06/officials-worldwide-ridicule-claim-that-iran-attacked-tankers-in-gulf-of-oman.html
I find myself agreeing with Bellingcat on something. I feel so dirty and ashamed.
Oh, Iran did it. Not sure whether to laugh or cry. Have we really sunk this low as a society? Apparently, yes, and so I reckon that when the Hegemon breaks (three years? four?), the consequences for us will make life in Moscow in 1995 look positively luxurious by comparison.
Trump may be ill-informed but he’s acutely aware of what is- and more importantly, what is not- in his political interest, at least on an intuitive level. And the political risk of war with Iran is too high, the outcome too uncertain, for him to strike Iran over tankers, drones and a few inconsequential rockets in Bilad. He’d fire Bolton before risking a war that might cost him reelection. Unless Iran raises the stakes to a level that provides Trump political cover with his base, I’d wager we see negotiations before bloodshed.
hallabina – Shanahan withdrew his name from confirmation process today. IMO he did it because DJT let Pomp circumvent his authority.
It’s depressing that the rest of the world may be coming to consider the West, which laid the foundation and built the structure of the modern world as
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boy_Who_Cried_Wolf
The term “nonagreementcapable” is horrible.
What is absolutely certain (at least to me) is that the world does not need another US led war.
If Trump wants to lose his re-election, he’ll be swayed by Bolton & Pompeo into foolishly attacking Iranian assets. Iran is not Assad who was willing to take the hits even if it was based on false pretenses. The Saudis and Bibi will be miscalculating if they believe Iran will sit tight. While they may eventually be destroyed, the initial conflagration will help Bernie & Tulsi to get a lot of airtime as they will be the contrary opposition voices.
I would assume that Trumps staff are selling him the “very quick surgical strike that will produce instant results” option. This is what was contemplated by Germany in both world wars. Everyone knew a long war would be economically ruinous, so they just eliminated such a possibility from their thinking.
Let us hope you are right. But if not, Trump would not be the first head-of-state to gin up a war in order to bolster his chances for re-election.
The same foreign policy agenda has been followed since the 1990s. No matter who was/is President. 100% certainty regime change of Iran is part of this policy. Some may point to the Iran Deal Obama made but it was only a hunting blind. On his watch Libya was destroyed and the attempt to destroy Syria by arming Salfaist was approved by him. The President’s are cowed by the extreme external pressure imposed on them by a certain faction. Probably the only way to get elected and self-preservation of political career and maybe biological life comes into play.
Eugene,
Only the neocons and Israelis want a war. Trump would not only lose but given his failure to ‘drain the swamp’ and recent pronouncements by Pelosi, Gildebrand, Harris etc., he, his family and political supporters would be further investigated and jailed. All the more reason to fire Pompeo and Bolton before they allow their own animus to destroy his foreign policy and by extension any chance at re-election.
if violence arrives i expect the window to begin soon… june 26-7 thru july 8-9.
watch the gold price, the cycle is right for a short powerful upthrust through 1360-64 june monthly close which if it occurs leads to something bigger. the move thus far is telegraphing something just over the horizon which will be used as the raison d’etre for golds advance.
We should start referring to the Persian Gulf as the ” Gliewitz Gulf”. Trump wouldn’t get it, of course. Would Pompeo and Bolton get it? The level of their anger upon hearing “Gliewitz Gulf” would indicate the amount of their getting it.
This is a good time for any Democratic Nomination-pursuer to start running explicitly on having America re-enter the JCPOA and also on declaring non-belief in the building “Iran Diddit” narrative. Such Democrats could use phrases like ” Remember the Slam-Dunk?” . . . ” Remember the Powell UN Speech?” ” Remember the Yellowcake?” . . . ” Remember the Curveball?”
The Catfood Democrats all support the Iran Diddit narrative. But 3 of the Decent Democrats might well oppose it. Gravel and Gabbard would certainly oppose it. Sanders “could” oppose it in public if he is willing to take a Las Vegas gamble.
For what it’s worth, here is a ~5 min clip of Pompeo being interviewed by MSNBC.
Mike Pompeo: ‘President Trump Does Not Want War’ with Iran https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2019/06/18/mike-pompeo-president-trump-does-not-want-war-with-iran/
Tuesday while speaking to reporters after meeting with U.S. Central Command leaders at the command’s headquarters in Tampa, FL, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said President Donald Trump did not want to go to war with Iran.
I’m not at all convinced Trump’s base is against striking Iran. They’ve been conditioned to think Iran is the source of all evil as have many across the political spectrum. If Trump thought a strike would be enthusiastically cheered by his base in one of his “Triumph of the Will” rallies, he’d be inclined to strike. If he thinks such a strike would produce an uptick in his poll numbers, he may also be inclined to strike. OTOH, he is a bullshit artist full of bluster and bluff. That may be enough to keep him from being stupid in the Gulf.
Trumps base only gets him so far. He needs all the people that voted for Obama last time that swung over to him for his anti war stance.
When I hear people saying: “President Trump does not want war with Iran “ I think to myself: “The lady doth protest too much, methinks”.
use to watch these videos by Vesti News to get an idea what is going on in Russia, at least at level of public opinion. But we have more problem than history but good Articles
Some here need to do a little research into ied’s used in iraq.There are many us veterans with………
to-deaths-of-500-u-s-troops-in-iraq-afghanistan/
Anonymous
War should not be waged because of a desire for revenge. To do so is childish. Should we seek revenge upon Germany, Japan or Vietnam? The Iranians supported our enemies during the Iraq resistance to our occupation? So what? Perhaps we should bomb Tokyo again. My mother thought so but she was ignorant and childish.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/trumps-defense-nominee-addresses-violent-incident-between-ex-wife-son-amid-fbi-vetting-process/2019/06/18/e46009de-190b-11e9-a804-c35766b9f234_story.html?utm_term=.39974960e1e7
An awful story that set the scene for Shanahan’s withdrawal, the Pompean usurpation was the final trigger.
TTG,
As part of Trump’s base and as someone in communication with other members of Trump’s base, we don’t want a war with Iran or anywhere else in the world. We want a border wall/illegal immigration/cessation of foreign invasion and existing illegals deported. That’s where we want to see our military directed.
Trump’s a BS artist? Well the economy is doing pretty well do in large part to his wise deregulations and general pro-America stance; and no one is confiscating our guns or mandating that our sons take female hormones and wear dresses; or confiscating our hard earned money for “reparations”. If that represents BS, I like BS. Can you tell me which of the Democrats isn’t a major socialist BS artist (this should be interesting)? Oh yeah, why of course! Tulsi’s going to take on the Borg successfully – in between socialist policy implementation – if we give her a chance. Okie dokie.
You keep saying things that made me wish we had the “like” button. To agree with you is a bit arrogant. You don’t need my agreement. A “like” button says that I appreciate your insight.
In 2003, the Bush administration piously insisted that they were seeking a peace with Iraq, even as it was obvious that they were seeking any excuse for war.
operation Tannenberg?
Eric, Trump’s evangelical base fervently believes in a coming Armageddon and a return of the Messiah. War with Iran would be a righteous step toward those goals. I’ll give you that many supported Trump based on his professed intention to withdraw from our foreign wars, but those aren’t the evangelicals.
Yes, Trump’s a BS artist. He lies at a rate not surpassed by any other politician I know, republican or democrat. And yes, the economy is doing well. It’s been improving at the same rate for the last eight years. Who is confiscating our guns? Ironically, Obama put more guns in American hands than Trump has. And who is mandating female hormones? If anything, deregulation is increasing the level of female hormones in our food supply. Reparations? Talk about reparations has been around for decades and will probably be around decades from now. No one is confiscating our money for that.
You’re absolutely right about Tulsi. She is strongly anti-interventionist and strongly progressive in her stated policies. I’d vote for her in a heartbeat.
Trump fired pollsters because they did not give the correct augury. Maybe his bellicosity had something to do with that.
Part of the reason he won in ’16 was that he was the relative peace candidate.
Ginning a war won’t help him.
TTG
She won’t be nominated.
TTG,
Obama told us an anemic GPD growth rate and high unemployment – which is what we got with him – was the new normal and we’d have to get used to it.
Who is taking guns? Every Democrat that opens his or her mouth on the topic. Observe CA and NY + other NE states.
As for lies, you gotta be kidding me. We’re all going to be dead in 12 years because climate change? Free health care for all, a free check every month for everyone will be good for the country and afforadable? Illegal immigrants are being held in concentration camps by racist CBP and ICE and that is comparable to what the Nazis did? Illegals deserve free everything and the right to vote? Felons in prison should be able to vote and receive free heroin? Trump colluded with Russians? Trump said neo-Nazis are fine people? Diversity is our strength? A man in a dress is really a woman? Socialism will work if we just we do it right this time? America is a uniquely unjust, racist and evil country – it was founded on such evil? Children don’t need a father? Racism is everywhere and you’re a racist if you disagree with liberals? These are lies that are tearing the country and culture apart. They’re coming from your side, not mine.
Or maybe you truly believe these things are true and good.
I’d have to say a war of aggression (Cue Justice Jackson on “The supreme international crime”) against Iran is now likely. Trump will say how much he regrets it, wishes for peace, etc. He’ll say it was a step he just had to take, you know, to protect us.
If he does, it’ll be in all probability an air campaign designed to destroy Iranian infrastructure and cause suffering for the populace. They won’t be able to effectively resist this campaign. I don’t think he’ll try a ground campaign because the goal will be destruction only.
The oil business in the ME will be severely affected and energy costs will rise.
Other rising economic powers will ramp up their militaries to prepare for what they will increasingly view as an unavoidable war with the United States. These same powers will double down on their efforts to free themselves from the malign influence of Dollar Hegemony.
The end result will be further reductions in US power and influence, both militarily and economically. The short and long term results will be further declines in well being and social cohesion in this country. The patients are now running the asylum.
I am no fan of Obama but you are dead wrong about the economy under him. He inherited the recession and lost jobs the first year 2009. Then every year after that he added jobs and the unemployment rate went down. According to Forbes, unemployment was 4.6% when he left office and job creation was the sale annually as under Trump. Forbes – no liberal rag- claims that Trump owes his job creation gains to Obama. They are nearly the same on a percentage and annual basis
Trump’s deregulation is gutting environmental protection. He claimed to support clean air, water but his policies do the opposite. His push – like Obama – to increase oil and gas production is having deleterious environmental effects at a time when the cost for solar and wind make them very competitive sources of energy. He is regressive in these areas as in others. His health care plan is where? You rail against the type of health care that every major industrial country has and which is more efficiently went and effective than what we have here.
We need someone in office today move us forward, not push policies from the past.
Not sure on Shanahan whether he jumped or was pushed. Now the war can just bypass the Pentagon and go straight to McKenzie at CENTCOM. Yeah, I know–that IS the chain of command. But still, no military besides McDill in the loop–at least as far as decision making goes. Isn’t Dunford about to hand over to Milley. Great (and don’t let Pompeo, Trump and Milley ride in the same elevator together.) Might exceed the weight limit!
But what concerns me beyond all the other atrocities being perpetrated is McKenzie. He gave an ultra-hawkish, anti-Iran, neocon-script speech six weeks ago at–wait for it–the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, that well-known Likudnik front group. I think that’s just about without precedent. And of course, dear old HR has been sent there as some sort of consolation prize after being booted to make way for the psychopath Bolton.
So the whole leadership deck seems to have been stacked. It’s worse than 2002-2003. McKenzie, by the way, did not command above the battalion/MEU level except for 18 months at MARFORCENT before going back to the Pentagon. Who the hell is this guy? How was he chosen for CENTCOM? Wonder if was given CENTCOM after making a positive impression on the warmongers as JSJ5 and DJS.
You misspelled “due.”
Lefty,
I call BS on what you are saying. That’s my considered opinion as an economist and actuary who works in the insurance industry. There’s nothing wrong with healthcare in the US. It’s the best healthcare available. Very few are without.
Socialism is progress? IMO, it is a thing of the past that democrats have regressed to; every damn one of them. They don’t even try to hide it any more. In fact, they vie to outdo each other on how far they will delve into it.They even call it “socialism” now.
DMN
Chicken shit bull, you should be ashamed.
I am not sure that Trump’s base will not support him in a war with Iran. I get two or three emails a day from such organizations as Tea Party Patriots etc. In reading the comments to the articles, I see a lot of crap about “showing the rest of the world who’s boss” etc. I cannot be sure this is indicative of the entirity of Trump’s base but reading comments on Brietbart and the like there seems to be a lot of “manhood thumping” about destroying a bunch of muslims and payback for 9/11 even though Shites and Iran were not involved. There seems to be no recognition that Shia and Sunni are not two peas in a pod, but like to my wife’s Minnesota great grandfather who subscribed to the “only good Indian (Muslim) is a dead one”.
So you call BS on what I say without referring to any data facts etc just your opinion. Well show me some me statistics any statistics that show how the US healthcare system is rated in the world as a superior system. I have never seen any data claiming this. And as an economic you don’t offer any data to substantiate your claims about Trumps economy being a result the his polices. I read economists like Dean Baker who write widely on many issues including the effects or lack thereof of Trumps tax and trade polices. You offer your opinion which is at best just that: your opinion. Unsubstantiated etal.
Lefty Blaker
This is not a forum for you to make propaganda fr the left and make academic demands for statistics. This is a forum in which I present my hard earned wisdom for people other than hard core leftists like you. Don’t let the door hit you too hard as you leave.
“There’s nothing wrong with healthcare in the US. It’s the best healthcare available.”
Eric
How do you conclude that we have the best healthcare available?
We certainly have the most expensive as our per capita expenditure on healthcare is double every other western country. What is the ROI on this expenditure?
According to a Kaiser Foundation report on the quality of the US healthcare system compared to other western countries that spend HALF what we spend per capita and as a ratio to GDP, we don’t rank very well. It would seem we don’t get good value for the money we spend as a nation on healthcare.
https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/quality-u-s-healthcare-system-compare-countries/#item-start
https://twitter.com/ejmalrai/status/1141986161176526848?s=19
If this is true, what would have been the intent of warning of an imminent attack?