"Naftali Bennett and Lebanese president agree: There's no line between Hezbollah and Lebanese state. Lebanese must realize another war with Israel means Lebanon will be sent back to Middle Ages, Bennett tells Haaretz. " haaretz
—————
Naftali Bennett evidently wants himself to be thought Israel's Curtis Lemay. Lemay's B-29s killed 100,000 Japanese civilians in one night over Tokyo.
I suppose this is all political BS reflecting NB's desire to replace Bibi at some future date. Bibi is looking like something approaching its "sell buy" date. He is being investigated for graft. He has also sued a reporter for asserting in print that his wife treats him like a not very valued dog. NB is watching in the light of ever increasing Israeli xenophobia and belligerence towards its Arab neighbors. Israel has for many years sought (successfully) to use American leverage to exclude Hizbullah from Lebanese government in spite of its electoral power. This is now at an end with Michel Aoun's statement that Hizbullah s an integral part of the Lebanese state. In response Bennett threatens a general application of the theory of strategic bombing if Hizbullah fires into Israel.
Well pilgrims, the trouble with that is the actual separation (as I have written before) of the Hizbullah fortified Belt (Tabouleh Line II) and its fortified firing positions for 20 to 30 K of advanced model artillery rockets with longer range and guided missiles from the civil infrastructure and population of Lebanon.
In 2006 Israel attempted to breach Tabouleh Line I and failed. Nose to nose ground combat against HB headbangers in prepared positions wasn't something they could face up to. Air power? There was a lot of fairly small caliber anti-aircraft fire over HB lines and Israeli pilots evidently discovered that a "golden BB" (small arms hit) would kill them as dead as any gentile pilot. As a result accuracy in their air attacks on HB positions went WAY DOWN. At the same time the IDF (then headed by a bird man) carried out a country-wide air offensive against Lebanese civilian infrastructure and people. This wrecked the place but it had ZERO effect on the outcome of the 2006 War. HB moved back to prepared positions a few kilometers north to allow the UN to place peacekeeping forces between them and the Israelis and then re-construction in Lebanon began yet again.
A re-run of Israel's 2006 plan will prove nothing except to demonstrates that the IDF has no ability to keep HB from firing heavily into Israeli populated areas. The IDF knows this. Evidently Bennett does not. pl
Making Israel safe from the danger posed by Hezbollah and any other Iran-backed fighters that might threaten the state is central to the terms for settling the Syria conflict. To that end, Israel and Jordan are supposedly planning to protect their border zones with the help of the “Southern Front,” a group made up of the southern Syrian tribes that were trained in Jordan with US and Jordanian help and Saudi funding. Israel will not accept SAA or Hezbollah in the Golan.
Does anyone know just what groups this “Southern Front” is made up of and whether it includes any of the Nusra jihadis that Israel was providing medical treatment for? Whoever they are, be sure that the Druze militias in Suwayda will not welcome them on their turf.
Annem
You understand what Israel wants. The question is if this exceeds their grasp. Have you spent a lot of time in Israel? pl
Annem
I remember going up to the “good fence,” crossing and meeting with South Lebanese Army leaders when Danny Rothschild was their guardian and shepherd. What makes you think that the buffer you speak of on the Golan’s east side will work any better. pl
“A re-run of Israel’s 2006 plan will prove nothing …”
It will prove a significant quantitative and qualitative increase in Hizbullah’s capabilities. An attack on Lebanese civilian infrastructure would be responded to with similar attacks on critical points of Israeli infrastructure. When Tel Aviv sits in the dark for a few days, with little water, airport closed, harbor blockaded, the Israeli government that started the fight will immediately fall.
—
Currently ISIS and Nusra share parts of the Golan and the strip to the Jordan border. The Jordan controlled FSA aka Southern Front is shrinking and can barely hold against them. If Israel hopes to happily live with AQ and ISIS right next to it, it is in for a few surprises.
Someone will need to “clean up” the area. The Syrian government and its supporting forces are likely the only ones who can. That is a task that currently has low priority from the Syrian view. When it finally happens Israel will have to live with it.
You bet he did….. I Loooove the new headline for Al-Nusra head shoppers and liver eaters…. ” Southern Front ” Syrian tribes….. it’s a cutie beautie!!! Let IDF succeed in keeping the Galilée….before leveling stupid threats.
One news item that may be driving Naftali’s madness is Breitbart and Haaretz and the al-Jarida newspaper that the IRGC is building rocket factories for Hez in Lebanon. I don’t know whether the reports are BS or not. But they are out there. So they are probably driving Naftali bonkers, along with Bibi and the rest of the right-wing crazies over there.
Well,what can I say, me thinks, the day that Israelies feel/ need to rely and trust any arab tribe or not for thier border security must be an acute day of desperation or a without any better choice, frankly a laughable plan. You must not be avare of European imigrant ashkenazi Jews and Sunni Arabs, specially the border Arabs. The relationship of ashkenazi Jews and Sunni Arabs is not any better than that of Persians and arabs, if not a few notches up. As they say good luck with that plan.
“Making Israel safe from the danger posed by Hezbollah and any other Iran-backed fighters that might threaten the state is central to the terms for settling the Syria conflict.”
Why is this the case?
Hizballah existed before the Syrian civil war, and took root in a conflict in the 80s largely of Israel’s making.
I smell a different agenda here.
FYI, as far as I know Arabs are not very forgiving or forgetting people.
The US, Britain, Saudis and Gulfies now have the Israelis back, so a reasonable guess would be that on a scale of a decade or so the Lebanon-Israel front and Southfront will not be allowed to go ballistic. The potential for very serious damage would see diplomatic intervention, bone-chilling threats and all, before that. But since NB Bennett has shot his mouth off already I wouldn’t wager too much against it. Maybe he has to be told just how extremely ugly it could get for everyone. The accumulated firepower boggles the mind. Mutual suicide to tempt those fates. The example of Syria is not comforting.
FourthAndLong
IMO you greatly underestimate what I have called the demonic forces in Man’s nature. A crisis in international relations moves fast. but, the idea that Saudi Arabia and the Gulfies are effective friends of Israel ina crisis is amusing and suggests that you think of international relations in absolutes. pl
“IMO you greatly underestimate what I have called the demonic forces in Man’s nature.”
If there is one thing that’s been said here over all these many years that deserves never to be forgotten, “the demonic forces in Man’s nature” might be it.
Larry Kart
I suppose that is Nietzsche talking through me? Or maybe … ? pl
Didn’t we go through something like this before? Shades of the SLA…..
Mercenaires, man, a nation can’t depend, too much, on that kind of support.
And Hezbollah has gotten much more experienced in this kind of fighting.
The end of the Syrian War in the government’s favour could well precipitate a Lebanese-Israeli war. Having failed to knock out the Syrian link of the perceived ‘Iran threat’, they will go straight for the immediate threat in Lebanon.
This time, however, the Russian Bear’s diplomatic and military assets might shamble over from Damascus and shut down the caper. Reasons include:
1. Syria and Iran will support Hezbollah and the Lebanese government, which could mean Israeli escalation against Syria.
2. Russian plans for becoming involved in extracting offshore gas deposits in the Med.
3. Internal pressure on Putin by the Orthodox Church to protect Christians in Lebanon.
4. A general war against Lebanon will trigger a period of extended instability that could reignite conflict in Syria.
What would a Russian intervention look like? Russia seals Lebanese airspace, and sends troops to set up a buffer zone on the border and guarantee Hezbollah will stop firing projectiles.
I guess you are right about that. I tend to think of it as a chess game. Leads me to think I fathom capabilities in an abstract sense. Weapons and troop strength argued against Hitler moving into the Rhineland. As did his generals. We do seem to agree on NB being off his rocker though. Seems to be a feature of Israeli politics for some time now.
There’s also the element of luck and likelihood that an opponent will be intimidated by apparently demonic or reckless-madman action. In the Rhineland Hitler pulled it off, as the French inexplicably folded. Cowardice may exemplify the demonic as much as does overconfidence. Liddell Hart mentions a Belgian Officer who begged permission of French commanders to cut down oak trees along a road used by German tanks in 1940 on their way to Calais and Dunkirk. Hart claims an affirmative response to the proposed blockade would have stopped that instance of a successful blitzkrieg cold. A God-awfully huge number of variables.
My dad did not set much store in ideas like the Maginot line or Hitler’s reckless ingenuity vis a vis the French in WWII. He simply repeated “they lost the creme of their manhood in the Great War and were a spent force … .”
Excuse my maundering Sir. You’ve set me to thinking. If there aren’t perhaps similarly very obscure details pertinent to the case of Israel Lebanon etc.
Mike I do believe this is a good case of “fake news”. It originated in a Kuwaiti newspaper with ties to Israel
I was in Beirut in 70 or 71 (yes I know that makes me ancient) when the Isrealis bombed the Beirut Airport. They were up and running the next day. It was the Palestinians then – just sayin.
My nephew is a Captain in the Golani Brigade, some of Israel’s best fighters. He was in Lebanon fighting the Hezballah the last timeand there is no one in the Brigade who wants to do that again. In fact, the entire command structure of the Golani is so hesitant to fight the Hez again, my nephew suspects that timidness will make Israeli forces even less effective than the last time. Israeli culture makes losing even a single IDF soldier a terrible tragedy, not a good situation for fighting an aggressive war.
i think both countries have a bit of a paranoia, correctly in the ability for the patron to really interfere in their affairs if we chose to.
Another way to put it: My best friend’s wife — also a good friend and a very wise woman — always says “people ruin everything.”
BTW, she’s not misanthropic on an individual basis; I take her mantra to mean that when people operate collectively and with a self-justfying rationale, the damage they can do knows no bounds.
If it comes to blows again between Israel and Lebanon, it’s bound to be a slugfest with massive civilian damage on both sides. The problem for Israel is that the Lebanese will suck it up, endure the misery and destruction and then rebuild. A lot of the Israelis will take the first plane out of there to a safer life in Europe or the U.S. once the rockets start falling. The Israelis can’t afford losing a lot of their more productive citizens. The settlers will stay, but just suckle at the government teat and add nothing to society. In a destructive stalemate, Israel loses.
Inda –
Fake news or not, it is driving the wingnuts crazy. Both here and in Israel. Breitbart strikes again.
The Israelis do not even trust us(The United States).They certainly will not depend on the Saudis or UAE to have their back…………They may try to use them like they use us………..Good luck with that too.
That is why the Greeks called them Phoencians ,after the mythical bird that could not be killed.It just rose up again and again.It is in the Lebanese DNA……………….
The Izzies bombed Beirut airport and destroyed all aircraft of the national carrier in 1968…. at that time the Palestinians were not heavily armed and were insignificant in the equation…..
The Golani brigade and all other Izzie brigades are sissies. It was seen first hand time and again… the Izzies rely on massive air assaults thinking and hoping that it will intimidate the other side…. with time, Izzies will be sent back to khazaria…
Annem,
My understanding is it will comprise of Jaysh al-Thawra, SRF-South, and Jaysh Ahrar al-Asha’yer among others.
Thanks P.L. for a helpful reminder that airpower has its limits. When I asked Dr. Ed Teller, PhD., in the early 80’s where humanity would be in 200 years he answered with one word, UNDERGROUND. He was a member of the FEMA Advisory Board under President Reagan. I have no reason to doubt his intellect or insight.
mauisurfer: Yes, a radical idea. If we actually treated Israel and Israelis like a regular country instead of this “chosen” bs, we would find that deterrence works on them and Israel’s neighbors.
The worst part of American involvement in the ME is the belief that the Zionists are “special” or “different.” They actually fit in nicely in the region: all zero sum and no foresight.
b: if true, huge: https://twitter.com/moscow_ghost/status/841254604964806656
I myself have NO reason to think that the buffer would work. I just referred to something that the Israelis and friends are supposedly thinking about. I DO think that the Israelis would like to come out of this Syrian civil war having gained something and hope that Hezbollah will emerge weakened enough to be easily vanquished when Israel next finds an excuse to fight them. Even Israelis sometimes indulge in flights of fancy.
If you will recall, the Israelis ran afoul of the Golan Druze when they started treating wounded jihadis and putting them back on the battlefield. It was said that the fighters were al Nusra. Al Nusra and ISIS have long held, as a matter of policy [practicality] that they should not engage in conflict with the Israelis/take back Palestine until they have taken control of the surrounding Arab states, i.e., a long time in the future. That is supposed to be the final stop along the jihadi highway to heaven.
In the meantime, Israel and its Arab+Turkey allies are in the kitchen cooking up different recipes for the region “the day after.” The dishes may prove to be inedible.
There’s a saying in Farsi when somebody is being a coward. It goes something along the lines of “don’t be a Jew”. With the exception of the best trained Israeli soldiers, your average conscript will fold rather easily in a ground war inside of Lebanon.
Naftali Bennett’s statement is just acknowledging what the Iranians already know.
Annem
“the Israelis would like to come out of this Syrian civil war having gained something and hope that Hezbollah will emerge weakened enough to be easily vanquished when Israel next finds an excuse to fight them.” I see no reason to think that HB will emerge from the Syria War in a weakened condition. why would you think that would happen? I would think quite the opposite. pl
That was likely much of the reason for this visit.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/rejecting-purim-spiel-putin-tells-netanyahu-to-stop-dwelling-on-past/
Bennet is a hard core settlement/annexation guy who thought his ship came in when Trump was elected. He thought they thought his next election campaign was going to be about how great he is for pushing to annex the West Bank. Then some one in the Trump camp told him to sit down and shut up. Now he needs a distraction from all the crap he has been talking and the fact that he no longer has any realistic policies.
Referring back to what the Col said. The military, intel and security establishment very much have it’s feet planted in reality as this list shows. The politicians are almost all completely over the top nutty. ( Not purely an Israeli thing. )
http://en.cis.org.il/members/
I think the next election will be very interesting. I expect a large shake up as many of the career politicians lose traction and some different blood comes in. I have my eye on Ya’alon in the next election not necessarily to win but to do a lot to change the conversation.
Precisely.
Mishkilji & Pacifica Advocate,
And now that Hizballah has had a good degree of practice in combined arms in the Syrian conflict, the Israelis will need to respect their lethality even more.
No air wing yet, but with the rapid advances in the use of drones in roles both as reconnaissance gatherers and weapons platforms, this can no longer be disregarded as a possibility. Since unlike missiles, drones are not constrained to ballistic trajectories, they have potential in penetration of Israeli air space. Something else to fret about. If they could deliver small bomblets, the Israelis could worry about their own children being killed or mutilated, and not just the Lebanese.
Larry Kart,
The madness of crowds. And this madness can be instigated by nefarious actors, and directed against those who they wish to harm.
There is no technical hurdle in delivering a cluster of drones via a ballistic missile; the cone separates disgorges the drone air-crafts.
For those thinking at the begining that Assad will lose, it make sense.
HZ suffering a somewhat defeat and having to retreat to Lebanon,should have been weakened militarly and poilitically.
But for now, after 5 years of “training” in Syria, HZ has probably among the best soldiers on earth.
Will the russian intervene ? IMAO, no. HZ in this case will have plenty of iranian soldiers ready to jump in the battle and die.
And enough anti aircraft assets to seals Lebanese airspace.
IMO, the newer war armament’ mobility platforms, which require less operator’ safety, this equipment an are making wars cheaper for poorer nations/ people, and are making wars more evenhanded giving a new attack capability to less technologicly rich countries. That is using guided missiles and rockets, storming small Boats and drones of various purpose, none of this armaments will cost billions and billions to devlope or to operate and is not a big deal to loose them.
Richardstenshack
It is their only play and it is worthless. The IDF knows that. pl
Babak Makkinejad,
Thank you for your response. My point concerning the potential of drones to penetrate Israeli airspace was focused on the possibility that while at least some missiles could be detected and interdicted by Iron Dome or such, drones, low to the ground, and potentially below radar coverage and both too small for aerial/space detection, and lacking the heat signature that even low-trajectory missiles must emit, could get around traditional air defenses. But your idea of missile delivery of small drones, essentially acting as self-propelled submunitions is an interesting idea.
I certainly don’t desire that Israeli children have their limbs blown off, but given the alacrity with which the Israeli Air Force has deployed bomblets over Lebanon that do just that to Lebanese children, or other civilians for that matter, having the threat of the same thing happening on Israeli territory might – just might – serve as a deterrent against their future use by the Israelis.
Israeli culture makes losing even a single IDF soldier a terrible tragedy,
Yes, interesting phenomenon* which, I guess, can only be understood in relation to basic foundation myths. A tiny country in a sea of enmity? Tiny country in a big bad neighborhood?
* partly understandable, partly more extreme then anywhere else.
Tactical Nukes?
Would/could Israel play the evil card and use tactical nuclear weapons to breach the Tabouleh Line?
I read that we reduced them in size to the point where during the Cold War, nuclear armed artillery shells were a last ditch weapon against a Soviet invasion of Western Europe. This indicates that it can be used defensively can it be used offensively or does the radiation poses too much of a danger to advancing troops? It’s conceivable that the radiation is at a low enough level or it has a very short half life that it could be safe but I don’t know.
BTW this would be a completely unjustifiable and beastly action. In semi-normal world it would be uniformly condemned and opposed but I bet the majority in the U.S. would cheer the action. We have been conditioned to believe that Hezbollah is as bad or worse than ISIS which is absurd. Hezbollah acts rationally.
There have been a flurry of stories hyping the Iranian / Hezbollah threat recently that it just feels like something bad is being set up.
TTG – Would not a squadron of B52’s suppress Hezbollah rocket fire and keep it suppressed indefinitely? If an attack on Hezbollah were to be portrayed as a war of survival for Israel would this not happen? Might I ask 1) are these assumptions incorrect and 2) is morale in Israel such that would it take merely a few rockets getting through to result in the stalemate scenario you set out?
As for the long term, I’m not a Zionist supporter because I don’t at all approve of what happened and is happening to the Palestinians, but setting that aside and attempting to look at the position dispassionately it’s been a losing game for the Israelis since 1948.
Displacing a population, if it is to be successful, requires radical measures. Stalin knew that and at least in some cases his population engineering seems set to last. Partial ethnic cleansing, and that in a mainly hostile region and with many of the survivors’ descendants able to get organised and fight back, is no recipe for long term security. The only question there, if there’s no genuine attempt at conciliation by the Israeli government, is how many more get killed in the endgame and how long it will take to play out.
I don’t of course know if the plan put out by retired IDF personnel is anything like viable but from page 26 on, the contents of that plan indicate that there are at least some Israelis who also recognise the impossibility of the current Israeli policy. The few Israelis I’ve met I liked. Nice people and none of the “God gave us this land” about them. There’s nothing in it for them to keep ramming their heads against a brick wall. Wouldn’t do any harm surely, even at this time of crisis, to kick around a few more plans like that and see if one of them might work? They’d have to talk to the “terrorists” on equal terms of course, but since that’s exactly what the British Government was calling the Israelis themselves by the end of our time in Palestine that shouldn’t be too difficult.
http://en.cis.org.il/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/snpl_plan_eng.pdf
English Outsider & TTG
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2014/04/b-52s-and-mops-for-israel-by-confused-ponderer.html
Israel has no B-52s and no sale of them has been proposed by other than neocons, why do you mention this? You think USAF is going to bomb Hizbullah for them? pl
as a measure of prudence, I would expect that there are not a few Weapons of Mass Destruction aimed at various points of interest in Israel by various powers who do have and do control these WDM-s.
Therefore, I would strongly believe that Israel was quietly made aware that there are international red lines, whose transgression is guaranteed to be fatal by international standards.
NMS
What countries are those? Iran and Pakistan? pl
Colonel, with due respect:
Iran does not have any, but others who might recall Israel’s threats in the past might want some insurance.
After all Israel does not need approx. 200 atom bombs [Noting that Pres. Carter indicated 150 during his reign] to fight any Muslim country, nor is there need for German built subs with atom warheads. North Korea is too far away, and has no interest in that area. That leaves the other powers, and I would not exempt anyone of them – recalling that many think [not me] that the next WWIII will be started by Israel.
Accurate.
NMS
I would have thought you would know from all my scribbling that I know Iran dos not have nucs. I wanted to know what you would say. There are in fact no candidates for anyone who might attack Israel with any of the WMDs except Pakistan. Basically, no one cares enough to do that. pl
Neutron bombs kill people but allegedly leave the buildings safe. Israel has built neutron bombs. However, *thermobarics* are almost as good as nukes, and don’t cross the red line. Israel has also used white phosphorus on urban civilians in Gaza in the last decade, and no one blinked twice. So there are WMD options available w/o going nuclear.
imagine
OK. Let’s see them do it . I don’t think they have enough guts. pl
Colonel – yes, I had assumed that the USAF would bomb Hizbullah for the Israelis, but I should also have said that I assumed that such US assistance could only be forthcoming as a last resort – if the survival of Israel were at stake or if significant numbers of Israeli civilian casualties occurred as a result of Hizbullah rocket strikes. I’m sorry I didn’t make that qualification clear when putting my query.
If memory does not fail me, Bruce Ridel has set that number at low teens.
Israel has built hardened missile silo farms with egregious missiles that can hit all of at least the Eastern seacoast if not California; Moscow; Beijing; Tokyo; and London. It successfully invaded Egypt a few weeks after building its first A-bombs, causing both Russia and America to go DEFCON-3. It’s had at least the known Gush Emunim apocalyptic cult and the Jewish Underground, believes non-Israelis are second-class human beings, and regularly slaughters civilians. It was inconceivable that O.J. would kill his wife, or the German airline pilot or 9/11 terrorists would self-immolate. At present an Israel launch would make no economic/political sense; however, that does not rule out (a) flock-of-geese mistakes; (b) apocalyptic cult takeovers; (c) passive aggression or extortion disguised as mistakes; (d) unforeseen future economic/political developments. The U.S. ABMs in Europe make little sense guarding against “Iran” if they are not actually guarding against Israel. Curiously, Israel will be safer when it divests, but we’re not there yet. Both U.S. & Russia’s militaries in general have not only Plan B contingencies, but also Plans C and D. Everyone wants peace; that’s why we prepare for war, so war becomes unneeded. I humbly don’t understand. Could you please explain why it seems neither America nor Russia has a contingency plan for strategically targeting Israel, just in case? Thank you.
Already Ayatollah Khamenei, in response to repeated public and private threats by Israelis and other Shoah Cultists stated publicly:
“If Israel attacks, we will burn down Haifa.”
I assume that he was making that statement in earnest and not as a hyperbole.
Think you’re right; not saying they will, just that they have options.
Look at the FDD/Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank for a sustained flow of scary stories. Their issue is Iran/Hezbollah and there have been some subtle hints among their top-tier tweeters suggesting influence within the administration.
Another fairly recent development is a slew of stories from Israeli media sources that have easily bypassed the Israeli military censor. Most are reassuring about the threats via a “weakened” Hezbollah and the upgraded defensive/offensive Israeli capabilities. Little is said about the true threats to the unprepared Israeli homeland.
When it comes to the Israeli need to radically expand their Lebanese targets, Israeli source Ben Caspit has just published a comprehensive article in the “Israel Pulse” section of Al-Monitor: “Is Israel Prepared for Hezbollah”s Rearming?” He concedes that :
“In order to launch such an attack, however, Israel will need prior approval from the United States. According to defense sources in Israel, it has already received such approval , or at the very least, can expect to receive it in the near future. If Israel does find itself launching an aggressive campaign to destroy Lebanon’s infrastructure in the next round, it will need the aerial umbrella of US support, which will allow it freedom of action, at least in the first few days of the fighting”.
http://.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/03/Israel-lebanon-hezbollah-military-war-idf.html
According to Caspit’s twitter feed, his (Heb) FB page ? about whether or not the US will grant accord is the primary point of his article. As of yet, he has not answered that essential question.
Colonel – my previous reply did something odd when I pressed “post” so in case it didn’t make it, I certainly hope not.
But I believe there is a risk that if the neocons and the media could make it seem that Israel’s survival was at stake the B52’s that as far as I know are based at Qatar would do so.
Colonel, I am aware of your stated opinion is that Iran does not have A bombs.
I did not say that any other power imminently plans to turn Israel into a large mirror. what I meant, clearly, is that there is an international red line to Israel: thou shall not use A bombs to attack anyone or else.
The Jericho II and III are sufficient to attack or blackmail any nation on earth sans some islands [Vanuatu??] in the Pacific. Sane politicians and leaders of armed forces have contingency plans for such events.
Lally,
“”In order to launch such an attack, however, Israel will need prior approval from the United States. According to defense sources in Israel, it has already received such approval , or at the very least, can expect to receive it in the near future. ”
That’s just an outright fabrication by the unnamed Israeli sources he is quoting. The US does not run Israel or its military. Here is an update to your link:
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/03/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-military-capabilities-war-idf.html
NMS
It is not a question of my “opinion.” There is no evidence whatever that Iran has nuclear weapons. non! The NIE of 2007 made it clear that the IC had no evidence of all of the Iranians having a nuclear WEAPONS program after 2003 when we removed the Iraqi threat from their borders. Several times after that Clapper testified before Congress that although the Iranians had the capacity to go forward with a nuclear weapons program he had seen no evidence that they had one. Now, you may not have a lot of respect for the US IC but in fact the “Five Eyes” SIGINT relationship Is very real and has bee for a very long time. So if you denigrate the opinions of the US IC you are also denigrating the abilities of the others including that of Canada. pl
bears repeating:
http://www.wideasleepinamerica.com/2012/10/the-goldberg-predilections-ignoring.html
If Israelis have built neutron bombs, then someone must have given them the designs for them; else they would have to have tested them in order to verify the design.
I think that is yet another canard about Israelis.
Likewise about thermo-baric weapons the effectiveness of which the Russian have amply demonstrated in Syria.
Colonel:
mea culpa, poor wording.
I am aware and have been aware that there never was any nuclear bomb related works in Iran, at lest not since the end of the Iran Iraq war [due to this blog and others, and the fatwa-s against WDM-s].
opinions vary on the first matter. Here is the Wisconsin Project On Nuclear Arms Control: “Today, Israel is the world’s sixth most powerful nuclear state, with a stockpile of more than 100 nuclear weapons and with the components and ability to build atomic, neutron and hydrogen bombs…”
http://www.wisconsinproject.org/countries/israel/nuke.html
Neutron bomb inventor Sam Cohen: “Israel has hundreds of neutron weapons. The neutron bombs would allow Israel to stop advancing Arab armies and tank columns – even one on Israeli soil – without permanently contaminating the land.”
https://www.manuelsweb.com/sam_cohen.htm
Since the white phosphorus munitions have American manufacture markings on them, and there have been reports of decommissioned American nuclear pits being transferred on the black market, it’s not inconceivable that Israel could have American neutron bombs; although some say the Vanunu photos prove they’re making their own.
Not sure of your point on thermobarics, are you saying they are a canard/don’t work well/are not tactically effective?
Source? Ridel recently quoted The Economist, which got its 80 nukes ceiling from the Swiss study, which based its number on common sense and explicitly did not count submarine-based nuclear warheads “for some reason” if you read the fine print. Sec. Powell said “hundreds” not “a hundred”. My number is 341, since that’s the number of krytron nuclear triggers that were “destroyed in testing”, unaccountably lost, and were not returned to the U.S. when it demanded them back.
Fred,
I rather doubt that Ben Caspit would be snookered by his defense sources; note his caveat in asking the question “will he or won’t he”? on his FB page.
Caspit’s opening para describes a portion of the US collaboration with Israel:
“The most important event to take place during Israel’s second war in Lebanon (2006) was a phone call between Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and President George W. Bush’s secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, at the start of the hostilities. Lebanon was then ruled by Fouad Siniora’s government. While Rice gave Olmert a “green light” to attack Hezbollah, she asked him not to cause any damage to Lebanon’s national infrastructure to ensure that Siniora’s pro-Western government survived.
Olmert agreed.”
Of course we don’t “run Israel or it’s military”. In fact, during the July 2006 “Operation Just Reward” war, Olmert et al were encouraged to expand operations to Syria. Aside from one cross-border incident involving the bombing of some hapless Syrian workers, the Israelis declined to take it to Assad.
BTW, I didn’t see any updated information in the link you provided. Perhaps I just missed it. But regardless, the central point for myself and Ben Caspit is whether or not the administration will “greenlight” a vastly expanded operation vis a vis Lebanon. If it resembles the scenario as suggested, there is the potential to ignite a fearsome regional conflagration not easily contained.
Fingers crossed that the voices of caution, both here and within Israel, will out. Worrisome to me are the signs of eager bloodlust rising among influentials at home and abroad who easily convince themselves that their wishful thinking and hubris shall prevail over reality this time around.
We shall see.
Riedel, sorry
You be wrong; even UK cannot afford (literally) that many weapons.
These other numbers etc. are part of their propaganda…
Again; did the United States Government supply them those designs?
Or were there Shoah Cultists among weapons designers at Los Alamos who gave Israel those designs? Did Sam Cohen, at the penalty of execution, supply them with those designs?
My point about thermo-baric weapons is that they have the lethality of certain class of nuclear weapons and Israelis do not have them. Their technological prowess is exaggerated; largely rests on what they stole from US and France and Germany.
Babak
Everything I know about US policy regarding nuclear weapons design makes me say that any transfer of US design information was the result of espionage. pl