As SSG Gutierrez would sometimes enthusiastically answer the company phone, no matter who was calling, “Charging Charlie, One Three Five, speak your nickel’s worth.”
A piece of big news this morning is the death of Navalny in a Russian prison. Not surprising at all. I don’t see why he was held up as a symbol of freedom. He was very much like Putin, just a rival to Putin.
TTG
I guess that beats the doctor on call at the ER in my hometown who answered the phone with: “Barney’s Marble Orchard, you stab ’em we slab ’em.”
For the English out there:
The Dubliners – The Sea Around Us.
https://youtu.be/ddB5Q4EPMVo
The Irish Rovers – Drunken Sailor
https://youtu.be/cf0E_PJtJWg
The Irish Rovers – The Orange and the Green
https://youtu.be/Qqs4EbU02As
(Mr. Musical interludes approves)
Navalny’s cell was as safe and secure as Epstein’s. How dare those rooshans follow the example of the federal bureau of prisons.
Guess who is in Munich right now, too? Just an Occam’s Razor coincidence. Nothing important happening there anyhow.
Fred, Russian News reports they took him “for a walk and he collapsed”
.
About Navalny…I don’t think you can say he was like Putin. We will never know. He was, however, presenting himself as an alternative to Putin so he would have had to be different in some important way to make that case. He did come out against the Ukraine War…that is different and the lying and malfeasance of Cherynoble (sp?) really jump-started his political thinking and career. So, we will never know.
Laura Wilson,
It’s true we will never know for sure. He did campaign against the rampant corruption in Putin’s regime. Whether he would have been able to do something about it rather than embracing it like Putin is a question that will never be answered.
TTG,
Putin did fight corruption. I saw it with my own eyes.
The first time I went to Moscow in 1998 my friends took me to the Metropol hotel where we bribed the desk clerk to validate my visa/allowed-to-be-in-moscow-permit. Ten years later I couldn’t bribe anyone at any hotel to do this for me – I had to do it legally.
In 1998 I watched a policeman dump a table full of oranges down the steps into the metro because the babushka selling them refused to pay him the bribe he was demanding. Ten years later the only bribes police were taking was for people who didn’t have their allowed-to-be-in-moscow papers … which was and is a form of corruption that moscovites are mostly ok with because it’s essentially a tax on non-moscovites.
Before Putin came to power Mikhail Khodorkovsky paid $200million for oil fields that were worth $800billion in a closed auction in which nobody but him was allowed to bid. The corruption was so bad that Nevsky Prospect was jammed with women prostituting themselves just to make ends meet. I used to unplug my phone from the wall every time I checked into a hotel room.
Ten years later median-wages-adjusted-for-inflation were up %280 largely because the huge reduction in the corruption and lawlessness that existed under the Yeltsin regime. Today there is no more prostitution (per capita) in Moscow than there is in Toronto. Corruption is not entirely gone but it is much, much better than it was in 1998.
The book ‘How Asia Works by Joe Studwell’ makes clear that you need some oligarchs to advance economically. The book ‘Godfather of the Kremlin by Paul Klebnikov’ makes clear the corruption was much worse before Putin than after.
Will Russia’s next president be better or worse for Russia than Putin has been? I put the odds at 50-50.
The problem with Putin (as with most autocrats) is no successon plan.
“To the strongest” did not work for Alexander and won’t work for Putin.
John Minehan,
I agree 100% that Putin’s lack of a succession plan (or even better a succession framework) is a huge problem for Russia and Putin’s greatest failure.
Here is a 30 second video which claims to be the last recording of Navalny filmed yesterday at a hearing. But that’s impossible to confirm. The channel – ВЧК-ОГПУ is financed by M Kodorkhovsky who is a bitter opponent of Putin (and was imprisoned for 10 yrs in Russia). So it’s doubtful this video was filmed yesterday is what I’m suggesting.
If so he looks surprisingly well. I’m reminded a bit of the excellent mood maintained by Vince Vaughn’s character in the concluding scenes of “Brawl in Cell Block 99.”
https://t.me/vchkogpu/45860
Russian Telegram channel Romanov_92 is complaining that Chinese-made counter-drone jammers are burning out from overheating. It’s the Volnorez jammer mounted on Russian battle tanks in Ukraine. About $4000 each, very inexpensive, you get what you pay for. Made by a Chinese electronics manufacturer, although it was renamed to hide Chinese origin. Which of Putin’s oligarch friends made a fortune out of buying this crap? And how big of a cut did Putin get?
Hat tip to Dmitri at War Translated for the heads up.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1758450716744564762
Alexi Navalny suggested that Russia should become a parliamentary republic, which is different than what Putin has created. But Putin may have created a martyr and that could become dangerous in a country where so much is make believe.
Lars,
Putin did not create Russia’s current system of government – Yeltsin did. In 1993, Yeltsin (with help from his American advisors and sponsors) overthrew Russia’s democratically elected government and instituted a ‘presidential rule by decree’ system. The US totally supported him in this because Yeltsin was their boy and him having complete control advanced US interests.
Then when Yeltsin was ready to leave office he asked Clinton “what do you think about me handing over control to that guy Putin we like so much?”, and Clinton have him a thumbs up.
Wikileaks leaked the emails that documented this. Which is one reason that Julian Assange is rotting in prison.
James,
Yeltsin was elected both as the president of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR) and the Russian Federation. He didn’t overthrow anything. He did oversee the development of a thoroughly corrupt system, the worst of both the communist and capitalist systems. Most of Eastern Europe and the Baltics successfully made the transition. Russia could not.
Using tanks against the legitimately elected Government is a coup! I’ve visited the memorial to the martyrs of the White House in Moscow. I bought bricks to rebuild a church that Yeltsin blew up in Sverdlovskaya. The sooner that the Yeltsin Centre in Yekaterinburg is shut down, the better.
Peter Williams,
That attempted coup was undertaken by CPSU hardliners including a lot of KGB types against Gorbachev. Yanayev, Yazov, Kryuckkov and others were bent out of shape over the loss of Eastern Europe and the Baltics and sought to implement martial law and overthrow Gorbachev, the legitimate USSR leader at the time, to reassert the glory of the empire. Yeltsin, in addition to getting his ass up on a tank of a unit that defected against the coup plotters, was heavily involved in putting down the CPSU hardliner coup.
TTG,
I think we are talking about two different coups.
One was the ‘1993 Russian constitutional crisis’ in which “President Yeltsin performed a self-coup, dissolving parliament and instituting a presidential rule by decree system. The crisis ended with Yeltsin using military force to attack Moscow’s House of Soviets and arrest the lawmakers.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Russian_constitutional_crisis
The other one was the ‘1991 Soviet coup attempt’ which was “a failed attempt by hardliners of the Soviet Union’s Communist Party to forcibly seize control of the country from Mikhail Gorbachev, who was Soviet President and General Secretary of the Communist Party at the time”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Soviet_coup_attempt
Two different coups – but both were coups.
James,
Yes, I was focused on the first, probably because I was far more intimately involved in tracking that one. I was operating in Berlin in those few days controlling sources witnessing the events as they played out. I vividly remember the absolutely silent protest in front of the Soviet Embassy on Unter den Linden. Such discipline (and probably fear) in that huge throng.
Yeltsin may have been a hero in the first, but he was the heavy in the second. His subsequent move to consolidate power in the presidency paved the way for Putin’s power today.
Thank God, Avdeevka is falling. No more regular murdering of civilians in Donbass by the Ukrainian artillery.
TTG
We appear to have moved from the gradually to the suddenly part of Avdeevka’s collapse. I have a lay person war question: I’m seeing lots of reports of the RuAF raining bombs onto Avdeevka seemingly with impunity. Why are their aircraft not being shot at/down? Are they out of SAM’s? Is it a geographic peculiarity and if not can we expect this to be repeated on the Ukie front line positions elsewhere? I did see reports some weeks ago about Russia retro-fitting gravity bombs with glide devices, perhaps that is related. OK that’s 3 questions, thanks.
Barbara Ann,
It does appear Avdeevka’s defenses will collapse in days or weeks. The built up areas are where the defenses still exist and they are being clobbered by 1,500 kg glide bombs launched from standoff positions. Clearly, the Ukrainians cannot defend against those launch aircraft with the air defense assets available to them. They could move Patriot batteries close enough, but that would put them at severe risk and leave Kyiv and other priority targets less well defended.
The Ukrainian government has announced they are withdrawing from the town.
Down with Putin’s corruption! Meanwhile in the State of New York……
On a related note fun with millenials living in a condo complex full of old people. Fun Fun Fun.
Fred,
Did you watch the clown show in Atlanta?
Where do these stereotypes come from? Where oh where?
You, of course, MUST mean the corruption of a rich man who thinks that rules are for little people and commits massive fraud for years. Surely that’s what you mean.
Rick,
Yes Exactly correct. I do understand that “The Big Guy” (= Biden) is behind these scumbag affirmative action darlings and their phony prosecutions, which will be reversed on appeal. Other corrupt rich men in the conspiracy would be Obama and Soros, the there’s Hillary Clinton (corrupt rich woman who believes rules don’t apply to her).
TTG
Having read your exchange with EO on the last thread I thought it might be useful to provide a breakdown of the justifications of the two essential sub groups of the pro-Russia position. Why? Because they are in fact very different and there seems to be a great deal of conflation of the two among the folks rooting for Ukraine. The result is a lot of heat where I think there could be more light. Here goes:
Camp 1 – the ‘404 camp’: These folks buy into Putin’s romantic nationalist historical narrative and his chauvinistic view of the Little Russians as existing only in an inferior capacity to ‘Greater’ Russians. They see no value in Ukraine’s fight for self determination as it is not a real country. I can only assume they see Ukrainian lives as intrinsically of lower worth than Russian ones too. I don’t doubt that some/many Russians feel this way and Putin is probably one of them. Non Russians who think like this have no excuse, as they have no racial/cultural dog in this fight. They betray themselves as Putin fan boys.
Camp 2 – the ‘tragic war’ camp: These folk do see Ukraine’s fight for self determination as having some value and maybe being entirely legitimate, but they support a Russian victory. Why? Because they see Russia as having a vital national security interest in preventing the NATOization of Ukraine and thus a moral right to prevent the undermining of Russia’s strategic position which was kept stable by virtue of Ukraine as buffer state. The argument goes along the lines of “imagine Canada had been invited to join the Warsaw Pact”.
Additionally, Camp 2 feels Russia retains the moral high ground given the undeniable fact of NATO eastward expansion, combined and culminating with the 2014 Maidan coup and offers of NATO membership made to Ukraine. They also by and large see the Ukrainian leadership as having been goaded by neocons into a ‘suicide by cop’ situation which was bound to lead to war. This in fact, not Ukrainian self determination, was transparently the precise aim of the neocons. They simply used Ukraine to bleed Russia. But crucially this fact does not detract in any way from the claims of those Ukrainians who seek a future outside of the Russian orbit. Ukraine has a moral justification, Russia has a moral justification. Conflicting ‘rights’ are brought inevitably together and so we have a tragic war.
Now there are of course shades and variations of the two, but I think is is vitally important for folks rooting for Ukraine to appreciate the difference. I have no time for the first camp, but a great deal of sympathy for the second. I also have a great deal of sympathy for the pro Ukraine camp, not least because their position is likely to entail the most tragic outcome.
I don’t know whether this has added any ‘light’, but while our descent into barbarism is less than complete I thought I ought to try.
Barbara Ann,
Camp 3 – The MAGA camp? Anyhow, my camp: These folks really don’t, at bottom, give a flying you know what of a fat rat’s ass who wins the regional border dispute, which is how they would depict the whole mess. They don’t approve of massive US tax dollars being poured into the conflict; especially with all of the unaddressed domestic issues (some existential). They despise US woke culture, the persecution of Trump by rogue leftist Affirmative Action DA’s, all the lying media and all the lying self-serving politicians. Since most of those despised people are for Ukraine, Camp 3 reflexively thinks it would good for Russia – which seems to be a country that is anti-woke and pro-traditional values – the beat the snot out of Ukraine. This view point is further reinforced by the fact of the Biden’s (and other US politician’s) corruption in that country and the fact the US media, neocon trolls like the ISW and other similar sources persistently tell the US populace obvious lies (see Ghost of Kiev, grandmas with guns blasting Russian tanks, and assorted daily fake propaganda about how the war is going swimmingly for Ukraine). That these establishment forces attack anyone daring to question their BS and even anyone, like Tucker, who takes an interest in an unauthorized format. It all seems so un-American to Camp 3. Truth to tell, Camp 3 sees the US establishment as the true tyrants – and tyrants who don’t like them and will hurt them and Putin, as the tyrant’s boogey man, who is white, Christian, intelligent, like camp 3 members, as a kindred spirit of sorts in the fight against the tyrant; not that all Camp 3 members are naive enough to believe everything Putin says, but it’s fun for them to periodically ignore that he could be making up excuses because they damn well know that our government is lying about Ukraine and everything else. For Camp 3, Putin is cathartic.
Addendum: Camp 3 does not like sawed-off runt penis piano players coming to our congress and telling us what we need to do – or we’re bad people. This is so offensive as to merit a special call-out.
Eric Newhill
Yes, although MAGA is isolationist (at least in a tax dollars sense) conservatives see Russia as a conservative bulwark and as pro Christian (and anti the “Globohomo” takeover). That is a valid position and a separate camp 3. The ‘conservative’ camp probably best describes it.
Problem with that line of thinking is Trump is part of the establishment. One reason why he used so many swamp creatures in his first term instead of draining it. The GOP and Democrats ARE the establishment. You cany support either and be against the establishment.
Stefan,
I argue that Trump is NOT a member of the Borg. He is not a neocon.
As far as his first administration staffing is concerned, I think he attempted to identify and hire the least bad of the Beltway types for a couple of reasons. 1. Smart people with real executive jobs don’t need the hassle (e.g. vicious personal political attacks) for low pay involved in coming to work in DC. So there’s really not much to choose from by way of Director level appointees 2. An insider, presumably, would know better how to navigate the entrenched bureaucracy.
I think Trump seriously underestimated how deep and widespread the corruption is, as well as how loyal *everyone* in DC is to the insider corruption machine. He thought he could flip some people in whom he saw at least a dim glimmer of patriotism and dedication to the people and their Constitution. He was wrong.
Stefan,
You mean all those people who betrayed him for the purposes of their ideology and the system of which he was never a part? Yeah, Trump’s fault. That’s why that ‘system’ will assassinate him before they ever let him take office and expose any of them, or hold them to account. The whole show trial process is just explanation to anyone else who might try and prevent the left from staying in power.
Well, what I was trying to say in that Martyanove exchange was a lot simpler than that, Barbara Ann.
The Russians moved on February 24th to stop the Kiev forces getting into the Donbass.
It’s true we’ve used Ukraine as a battering ram. I’m pretty sure the Russians will neutralise remnant Ukraine to prevent that in future.
But the threat to the Donbass was what forced Putin to let his generals loose.
…………………………..
All that’s more or less understood now. But not in the West and I can assure you, not in Europe. We underestimate the power of the Western information war on the peoples of the West. Even when, as in this case, that information war damages us and not the enemy our politicians choose for us.
Here are a couple of hardy information warriors, one yours and one ours, patting the narrative into shape for us. That’s one of the West’s major industries – tens of thousands, probably hundreds of thousands, earning a good living at it – and these two are eminent in the field.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgBBLX9h8Zs
Here the reality they are glossing for us. I choose this man because he doesn’t go in for the blood and guts depictions that many do.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=orPgVI-P7eM&t=1s
Used to think it’d be interesting to see what happened when the reality on the ground and the reality of the information warriors collide. But I don’t think they will, or at least not in Europe. “We have always been at war with Eastasia” is the drug we Europeans crave and the drug the information warriors supply us.
EO,
The impending Ukrainian threat to the DNR and LNR is a trumped up excuse. Ukrainian forces near the line of contact still had most of their heavy weapons in OSCE concentration areas when the invasion kicked off. There were casualties in the years leading up to the invasion, 55 in 2019, 26 in 2020, 25 in 2021. And those civilian casualties were on both sides of the LOC. The Russian invasion caused the casualties to skyrocket.
TTG,
It seems to me that Team America was very much butt sore over Russia capturing Crimea and, almost from the day it happened, starting talking about how to get it “back”. It’s really a big deal for them. So there is causes belli #1 for the neocons.
Russia captured Crimea after the Ukraine coup. So, it is fairly obvious, right or wrong, that Russia perceived the coup as the beginning of a serious military threat from US/NATO.
I still contend that what Russia has done by invading, is to protect Crimea from US/NATO/Ukraine by cutting off the land based approach. Even a quick glance at a map shows that.
The history of that region is war and changing borders. Some of us aren’t end of history new world order team members. History is going to at least rhyme and we shouldn’t be inserting ourselves all over the globe trying to cut it off in mid-sentence when it does – unless there is a real threat to US interests, like with Islamic maniacs eternally attempting to destroy civilization one piece at at time. For the Ukrainians, life under Zelensky oligarchs or life under Russia, what’s the difference? Might even be better under Russia for some significant proportion.
Eric Newhill,
I also thought that Team America was salivating over the prospect of a NATO flag flying over the Sevastopol naval base and that did cause Russia to respond so brazenly. Can’t blame them for that. They got greedy in 2022 and now Sevastopol is barely functional.
Ukrainians saw what life under the Kremlin’s rule would be like in the DNR and LNR. Those territories descended into a 1930’s bolshevik hell. It was a shame because they had potential for success in 2016. Plenty of blame to go around, both Kyiv and Moscow share it. But the bulk of the blame falls on the separatist leadership that emerged soon after the fighting stopped. Russia would have been smarter to insure better leadership arose and made the effort to turn them into an economic success story. At least they tried in Crimea.
TTG,
No argument with your last points. In fact, spot on assessment as far as I can tell.
Like I keep saying, contrary to Martyanov et al, the Russians are not 4D chess players. They’ve done a few things well, a lot mediocre and a few important things very poorly.
TTG,
how many people had to die so the borg could have their great victory? The borg casualty rate is zero. No one bombed a single think tank or NGO. Maybe the Russians were just shooting the wrong people?
Fred,
Who gives a rat’s ass about the borg. The Ukrainians are fighting, and dying, for themselves and their country. It will be their victory or their defeat.
TTG,
I do not see how Navalny was “very much like Putin”. do you mean in personality or life-story or ideology / faith or political style or intent?
I viewed him as a politician of a Russian populist style but lacking popularity. one whose cause overpowered his wisdom.
ked,
They are cut from the same cloth as to their political/patriotic ideology. Their difference lies in their approach to corruption. Putin seeks to accomodate and control it. Navalny wanted to eradicate it.
TTG – not sure whether the Kiev forces would have tried for the Donbass or not. There was talk of a Kiev “plan” for an invasion but that could have been just talk.
Even if there had been such a plan, General Staffs plan for even remote contingencies all the time. I bet the US General Staff has a plan tucked away in a bottom drawer somewhere for the invasion of Mexico, even though it’s pretty well impossible to imagine any US government ever wanting to do that.
So even if the Kiev “plan” to invade shows up, I don’t believe it’ll prove anything.
What matters is risk and the calculation of risk. If there were large concentrations of Mexican troops on your border, and the knowledge that major hostile powers were backing Mexico, I bet your General Staff would certainly sit up and take notice.
We had some 80,000 NATO trained and equipped proxies along the LoC. They had strong fortifications prepared over the preceding eight years, very strong fortifications as we’ve since discovered. So no chance of nipping round the back and cutting off forward units.
Three miles from Donetsk. The Kiev forces weren’t up to full combined arms warfare. We’d not given them the gear or the training for that. As they proved later, they were more than suited for urban fighting and small unit tactics. Had they got into Donetsk and other towns and cities of the Donbass they’d have been most difficult to shift. As Mariupol showed, they were adept at using civilians and civilian installations as shields.
So if our proxies had got into the Donbass it would have been a long wearisome job dealing with them. I doubt the current Russian administration would have survived either, if they’d let that happen when they could have stopped it. So any amount of risk around, for the Russians.
An added complication that it wasn’t even the Russian border . Just the border of a part of Ukraine that in international law the Ukrainians had every right to do as they pleased with, Minsk 2 having failed and therefore offering no protection.
Facing them were some 20,000 LDNR troops, rising in a hurry it’s said to 40,000 but certainly not enough to hold back the Kiev forces if those Kiev forces had moved.
We’re a little arrogant in the West. We think we not only have the right to threaten. We think we have the right to dictate to our enemies how they should respond to threats. We don’t. The Russians looked at that lot, decided the risk of something going wrong was too great, did their article 51 legal jiggery-pokery and moved decisively to forestall the threat.
The West screwed up. You don’t fool around like that on the borders of a major hostile power and expect to get away with it. FOFA, I believe your Marines say. FOFA adequately covers this case.
……………………
The same in think tank language:-
any increase in U.S. military arms and advice to Ukraine would need to be carefully calibrated to increase the costs to Russia of sustaining its existing commitment without provoking a much wider conflict in which Russia, by reason of proximity, would have significant advantages.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html
Biden Scholz and Brussels, Johnson tagging along scruffily behind, didn’t read the small print. They provoked a much wider conflict in which Russia, by reason of proximity, had significant advantages
But FOFA covers the case better.
Always get that wrong, TTG. It’s not Find Out if you Fool around. It’s FAFO. Apologies to your Marines.
Apologies for another slip . It’s not Martyanove. It’s Martyanov.
Not even that, to be accurate. The discussion yesterday was on the Martyanov/Trukhan interview, Following on from the earlier Trukhan interview linked to.
Trukhan was pretty brutal when he outlined how the Russians would have done the Robotino breakthrough. They’d expect to lose a hundred tanks and take heavy casualties. Plenty of AD. Tactical nukes if needed. And a lot in the way of diversionary or probing attacks elsewhere.
So I do ask, what were the Milley/Caroli/Radakin team up to when they were telling Zaluzhnyi how he was supposed to attack? Because they were never going to give him any of that and they knew it.
Time to update the old Kissinger saw. To be an enemy of the West is dangerous, but to be a proxy is fatal. As one NATO officer is reported to have said, if Milley or Caroli had squandered NATO troops like that they’d have been cashiered. Those were very fine troops, the Ukrainian regulars, and unbelievably courageous and resourceful. We used them and threw them away like an old rag.
EO,
Don’t beat yourself up about the occasional slips. you’re writing comments to a blog, not a work of prose for widespread publication.
Trukhan’s description of how he would have executed a Robotino breakthrough is no different than the Soviet Army intended to execute an attack across the Fulda Gap decades ago, including the possible use of tactical nukes.
Why we thought a Ukrainian counteroffensive with insufficient numbers, weapons and air support was going to work is beyond me. Especially in light of Russia’s efforts to build in depth defensive lines for months prior to the counteroffensive. Perhaps we, me included, were hoping the Russians would be as bad in their defensive operations as they were in their offensive operations. We also didn’t realize the dominant role drones would play on the modern battlefield. I think the Ukrainians will believe more in their own developing doctrine and tactics in the future rather than relying on our, now outdated, doctrine and advice.
TTG – not sure whether the Kiev forces would have tried for the Donbass or not. There was talk of a Kiev “plan” for an invasion but that could have been just talk.
Even if there had been such a plan, General Staffs plan for even remote contingencies all the time. I bet the US General Staff has a plan tucked away in a bottom drawer somewhere for the invasion of Mexico, even though it’s pretty well impossible to imagine any US government ever wanting to do that.
So even if the Kiev “plan” to invade shows up, I don’t believe it’ll prove anything.
What matters is risk and the calculation of risk. If there were large concentrations of Mexican troops on your border, and the knowledge that major hostile powers were backing Mexico, I bet your General Staff would certainly sit up and take notice.
We had some 80,000 NATO trained and equipped proxies along the LoC. They had strong fortifications prepared over the preceding eight years, very strong fortifications as we’ve since discovered. So no chance of nipping round the back and cutting off forward units.
Three miles from Donetsk. The Kiev forces weren’t up to full combined arms warfare. We’d not given them the gear or the training for that. As they proved later, they were more than suited for urban fighting and small unit tactics. Had they got into Donetsk and other towns and cities of the Donbass they’d have been most difficult to shift. As Mariupol showed, they were adept at using civilians and civilian installations as shields.
So if our proxies had got into the Donbass it would have been a long wearisome job dealing with them. I doubt the current Russian administration would have survived either, if they’d let that happen when they could have stopped it. So any amount of risk around, for the Russians.
An added complication that it wasn’t even the Russian border . Just the border of a part of Ukraine that in international law the Ukrainians had every right to do as they pleased with, Minsk 2 having failed and therefore offering no protection.
Facing them were some 20,000 LDNR troops, rising in a hurry it’s said to 40,000 but certainly not enough to hold back the Kiev forces if those Kiev forces had moved.
We’re a little arrogant in the West. We think we not only have the right to threaten. We think we have the right to dictate to our enemies how they should respond to threats. We don’t. The Russians looked at that lot, decided the risk of something going wrong was too great, did their article 51 legal jiggery pokery and moved decisively to forestall the threat.
The West screwed up. You don’t fool around like that on the borders of a major hostile power and expect to get away with it. FAFO, I believe your Marines say. FAFO adequately covers this case.
……………………
The same in think tank language:-
any increase in U.S. military arms and advice to Ukraine would need to be carefully calibrated to increase the costs to Russia of sustaining its existing commitment without provoking a much wider conflict in which Russia, by reason of proximity, would have significant advantages.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html
Biden Scholz and Brussels, Johnson tagging along scruffily behind, didn’t read the small print. They provoked a much wider conflict in which Russia, by reason of proximity, had significant advantages
But FAFO covers the case better.
Barbara Ann,
You forgot Camp 3. Those that were disgusted with the attempts by the Bandara scum to genocide ethnic Russians in the Donbas. They remember the Alley of Angels https://sputnikglobe.com/20230727/forgotten-angels-how-ukrainian-forces-killed-donbass-children-1112191317.html and the Gorlovka Madonna https://gistundiluted.blogspot.com/2023/06/kristina-zhuk-was-23-years-old-her.html https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ci7STXZAjRs
My eldest daughter ran into the mother of a classmate at the start of the SMO. He is in the VDV, and she wished him well. The mother was quite stoic, and said if her son died, he would die preventing more Kiras and Kristinas.
Peter Williams
Of course. I was kind of rolling the suppression of the Russian language, Donbas ethnocide and similar policies into the “goaded by neocons” part. Supporting the worst of the neo-Nazis and attacks on ethnic Russians was part and parcel of the neocons’ strategy to guarantee a hostile response by Moscow. I guess when you have have no morals it’s easy to start a war.
Ms. Barbara Ann, I slightly disagree with your assessment regarding the people in different camps. Matter of fact is the Ukranian economy was totally integrated into Russian economy even in 2014 never mind the Soviet years before 1991. The main market of Ukranian goods were Russia and its east Eurasian allies/friends. The 2014 coup plotters in Ukraine or their masters in State Department didn’t think through how to integrate the Ukranian economy into EU market. Just look at the ruckus being raised in EU countries that are stalwart promoters of Ukraine like Poland with the protesters blocking the agricultural products from Ukraine. True Ukraine is a fertile land and could have prospered on its own without their president going around with a bowl. Also if they gave some autonomy to folks in Donbass and Luhansk they could have preserved their industrial base also. You just don’t tell native population that they can’t speak their native language. Now that the die is cast and the Russian bear is on the loose. God help those Azov guys sent to Advidka. There is still hope for Ukraine to retain Odessa and access to the Black Sea only if the masters in the Universe swallow their pride and make a deal with Putin now.
Muralidhar Rao
It’s not that they didn’t think through integrating Ukraine’s economy into the EU or that there were qualms about banning Russian. The first was simply not a consideration and the second was essential to the strategy. The aim was to start a war. These people care less than nothing for the people of Ukraine. Granted, it is hard for a normal, moral person to understand how such psychopaths think.
The Azov guys will need God’s help, no prisoners will be taken this time.
Russia has faced the problem of invasion from both East and West as long as it has existed.
Going back to the Romanovs, Russia has tried to dominate the “near abroad” (a Soviet-Era term for an ongoing interest) to provide the sort of security the Atlantic and the Pacific give the US,.
The NATO and US expansion into this area generated the predictable Russian response.
This could have (and should have) been dealt with peacefully (say, by EU expansion rather than NATO expansion and efforts to treat Russia as what it has probnabnly been since Peter the Great, a major European force).
However. it wasn’t.
If we support Ukraine, if we keep giving them aid, they will probably win within this calender year,
The Ukrainian victories over the Black Sea Fleet mean the Russians cannot relie on ship-based Air Defense systems to protect the LoCs into the Donbas and the Ukrainians are getting the fire support assets needed to contol the LoCs by fire. As indicated by that very Ukrainian success against the Black Sea Fleet, even ethnic Russian people in the “occupied territories” don’t support the Russians. (This is further seen in the fact that the Russian Orthodox Church in the occupied territories is largelly not supporting the Russians,)
The Ukrainians started the war without much (or any) proficiency in Counterfire (attacking 2S-1s with expensive drones, for example). They have markedly improved. In contrast, the Russians still have the limits in strategic IMINT and HUMINT that crippled their Airborne attack on Kiev in 2022 based on their repeated failure to drop the Ukrainian Grid (something the US did within 72 hours in 2003 in OIF I),
We should continue to support the Ukrainians as we took a side and should keep faith with that side, especially given the losses they have taken based on that support.
However, we need to seriously consider if the US should continue its role in NATO where we are not a European power and should not have so much impact where we do not fully share the consequences of our decisions.
TTG, in my opinion, the Russians launched a classic spoiling attack in Donbass to prevent a Ukrainian advances.
As you would be aware, once Ukrainian forces had advanced into Donbass, the outcome would have been a catastrophe for the predominantly Russian civilians of that region. The Azov types could rerun their grandfathers WWII genocidal behaviour and the Russians would have had the impossible task of trying to protect the Donbass civilians from them.
To get a feel for what this would have been like, look no further than what is happening in Israel/Palestine at present where the Israelis Defence forces are trying to winkle out Hamas from the general Palestinian population. The Russians avoided that type of cluster*&^%.
walrus,
Defensive fortifications were equally impressive on the separatist side of the LOC. If Russia was truly concerned about a Ukrainian attack across that LOC, they would have moved into those fortifications quickly and in force. Instead they attacked elsewhere along the frontier including the predominantly Russian city of Kharkiv. Fortunately the scale of destruction has not come close to that wrought by the IDF in Gaza.
-> Walrus, so true.
One might think, the Russians had several objectives, to protect the Donbass, to push the besieging Ukrainian forces away from the Donbass and to stop further Ukrainian threats.
-> TTG, because, for the Russians, coming to border trenches or the LOC wouldn’t have solved anything in the long term. Minsk1 and 2 had shown that the UKr were prepared to sign anything to get out of trouble AND not respect them. So this front line would have been a bleeding wound for both sides. A bit like Kashmir or Cyprus, there are other precedents since 1945. All in all, UKr and the West are paying the price for their bad faith.
Good to remember
05 September 2014, Minsk1 follows UKr defeat in
Ilovaisk on September 02. (agreement on the ground on 03, not respected).
February 28, 2015, Minsk2 follows UKr’s defeat in Debaltsevo on February 28, 2015.
In both cases, the agreements enabled UKr to repatriate, more or less successfully, encircled troops, between 3,000 and 5,000 men, perhaps more in Debaltsevo.
No doubt Russian troops were present in Debaltsevo as a last resort secure. At least one battalion of T72s or similar and one of airborne troops.
BA… that’s a very useful construct – thx.
Eric’s Camp 3 is a projectionist view of domestic maga ideology – it rigorously fits everything everywhere, forever.
Peter’s Camp 3 is a chip off the Camp 2 block.
Ukrainians will never surrender their quest for self-determination – until they achieve it. worst case, they’ll have to wait until Russia recognizes the rights of a people to gain freedom. just because the Russian State (of mind & soul) is still having such difficulties emerging from its Tsarist past, doesn’t mean the fault always lies w/ those on the sidelines (or worse, its borders).
Ked:
Do you have a problem with “Russia’s Tsarist past”?
If so, what.
Please specify.
As to me, I appreciate and respect how Catherine and Peter promoted mathematics and learning.
See, e.g.,
https://ecmiindmath.org/2019/03/25/leonhard-euler-and-saint-petersburg/
I really can’t understand why some people denigrate Russia’s Czarist past.
Russia has produced many GREAT mathematicians, from the 18C on.
Keith –
Besides mathematics, Russians throughout history did great work in chemistry, natural science, music, literature, art and much more. And that was despite the Tsars, despite the serfdom of 60 million Russians, despite the colonization of over 15 million square kilometers. They were a colonial empire just like much of Western Europe, they murdered millions subjugating their neighbors. Although the later Tsars were not so outright murderous as the Bolsheviks.
It’s hard to comprehend the refinement of Russian art and science and the fortitude of the Russian people compared to the brutality of the Kremlin.
I have a general problem w/ monarchic autocracy – even benign ones w/ occasionally great leaders who embraced valuable aspects of the Enlightenment (possibly for valid competitive reasons learned on a tour of the West). If only Peter had an urge to lay groundwork for transition out of serfdom, move Russia a notch toward self-governance… could’ve had a shot at avoiding Leninism, Stalinism … & Putinism? but that’s a big ask of any Emperor (& an easy insight looking backward) … past or present. & yes, its could’ve been worse w/o him … eventually it was.
{imo, one of the reasons Russia produced world-class mathematicians & theorists was the top-down command economies (from Imperial to Commie)… no capitalistic outlet for creative, risky applications for The People… thus the brainiacs smoked & thought – deeply & well.}
The big news is that General “Butcher” Syrsky ordered Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Avdeevka — at least those not surrounded or too badly wounded to retreat. Those Ukrainian soldiers trying to flee are running a gauntlet of rockets, missiles, mortars, and artillery. The casualties are catastrophic.
The Russians clearly have the initiative and will continue to press the attack at times and places of their choosing along the 1000-mile front. Ukraine simply does not have the manpower — trained personnel — to put up a defense. They will continue to die by the 10’s of thousands until Ukraine is no more. The United States will continue to fund Ukraine’s proxy war with Russia to the last Ukrainian!
Larry Johnson: Biden Weeps for Nalvany While Ignoring Gonzalo Lira
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWWo8pIgN9E
Max,
Gonzalo Lira was not a British intelligence asset trying to foment a color revolution in Russia.
And it’s Cavoli, not Caroli. Done that before. E&OE indeed.
TTG – I’m still convinced your own solution to the mess would have worked just fine. But to return to my idee fixe – I am after all a European – I don’t think Scholz and the rest of the Europoodles would have worn it, They want to be big dogs too.
Nor, I’m certain, would President Biden have accepted any such solution. That sanctions war was designed to take Russia down. Provoking a Russian military response on the LoC – any response would have done – was a necessary preliminary to justify the sanctions war.
The Western politicians were gearing up for the sanctions war well before 2022. A speech from 2019 shows the way things were going:-
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-munich-security-conference
Also shows how things are going to end up.
EO,
The sanctions were designed to serve as a threat to keep the Kremlin from invading Ukraine. The threat didn’t work, nor was Washington sure the Germans were going to go along with them until they announced they would join them in full. I think that surprised the Russians as much as it surprised us.
I Dont know which Germans Cranked up the Old March Music… They Have Big Problems in Germany…and I Have Seen The “Germans” Dragging Thier Boots..Protesting….Nein..Not Our Super Waffens…Too,,,,But You Must You Must Bundeswehr Says…
.While The Politicians .. play the
NWO Anthem..Creat a new Line of Communication…Called Bull Shit…Seasoned with Lies.and Piles of Politics and Propaganda..
.and Play
All Five of Americas National Anthems.at every sports event….To Inspire Americans..and Create All Kinds of ways to Spend..Use..Or Transfer Cash..Gold..Diamonds..Drugs..Body Parts..Slaves.
It all Started…When Yeltsin..Came to Texas…Went into a Grocery Store.. Saw What there Was for People..
.Cryed All The Way to Russia…Got on a Tank.
..And Proclaimed Russia Would Never Be Communist Any More…Because Putin Now Owned Everything…
And Thats The Way They Do Collusion in Imperial Russia..And Thats How You COUP…All Over..
jim
I recently had to spend some quality time with people, against whom I kind of harbor grievances. It got me thinking.
Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you “The Quality of Mercy” by Michelle Shocked, from the soundtrack to Deadman Walking.
https://youtu.be/Ru7cNCmR6Mk?list=RDRu7cNCmR6Mk
TTG,
Thank you for putting up with my double posts because I forgot the actual link. I get excited…
I never knew that 7 years before the Panama Canal kicked off that Porfirio Diaz connected Oaxaca with Veracruz with a railway which was used to shorten the shipping routes. An interesting 14 minutes.
Mexico’s $4.5 Billion Panama Canal Version 2.0
https://youtu.be/FgPuAVB8a9A
This is Malek Dudakov’s anti-USA propaganda post this morning. Pasted below link. I don’t blame him for it because the US is an enemy of his country Russia. How seriously alarming is his thesis that the Trump supporters in trucking can disable the US? Trump couldn’t possibly desire such an outcome given his family business interests, or am I wrong about that? That’s not to mention that there are many business interests which would stringy oppose disabling slowdowns.
———————-/—
https://t.me/malekdudakov/6655
The legal wars in New York caused a real split in the United States . Truckers were the first to react – they are mostly Trump supporters. Truckers began a protest campaign – refusing to carry cargo to New York. And they provide 75% of all logistics in the USA .
In fact , we may be talking about a repeat of the riot of Canadian truckers at the beginning of 2022 – when they paralyzed the entire country, protesting against quarantines. And without the constant supply of goods and products, any liberal metropolis will slide into chaos and pogroms in 3-4 days.
The crime rate in New York is already off the charts. And local progressive prosecutors commute sentences for 60% of criminals – representatives of “oppressed” minorities. But they are trying to sue “enemies of the people” like Trump, who for the first time in the history of New York was given a huge fine of $360 million – in a case where there were not even victims .
Trump will obviously have to get rid of his assets in New York. Trump supporters have already called on local businesses to follow his example and relocate to Texas or Florida . The situation in New York will only get worse due to migrants and crime.
In the polls, Trump is ahead of both Biden and his potential successors like Harris or Newsom. And in the primaries, Trump’s rating reached 80%. He is consolidating all of Republican America around himself . And he is already de facto declaring war on democratic America – which simply cannot exist without Trump supporters in the form of truck drivers, oil workers or workers.