"BAGHDAD, Sept. 7 — Voter registration soared in some Sunni Arab parts of Iraq as Sunnis mobilized to try to vote down a draft constitution they believe will divide the country, according to figures released Wednesday at the close of registration for the Oct. 15 referendum."
The Sunni Arabs of Iraq are going to try to turn out enough voters to defeat the draft constitution. No one knows if they will find enough people to be able to do that.
In a way it does not matter.
Not difficult to see.
Many Sunni Arabs do not want a constitution which relegates them to the status of a "tolerated" minority," deprived of a "fair" share of "national" wealh. They do not see this draft document as a desirable outcome.
Many Sunni Arabs support some part of the insurgencies, either actively or passively.
1-Therefore if the constitution is enacted many Sunni Arabs will continue to support the insurgencies.
2-Therefore, if the constitution is not enacted many Sunni Arabs will continue to support the insurgencies.
i.e., the war will go on either way. What part of this do we not get?
(See my earlier post on the irrelevance of the October election)
If the Sunnis are able to defeat the Constitution through electoral means, it will demonstrate to them that they can achieve change without violence. This can have a great impact on support for the local sunni insurgency, as they see their power at the ballot box, they are likely to divert more energy to that venue. This will leave the Jihadists allied with al Qaeda on their own. If they Sunnis feel they can challenge the system at the ballot box, and can effect change (i.e. a constitution more in tune to their demands) they the next government that comes to power becomes more legitimate.
Maybe, or maybe the Shia will decide to dump the process since it would not have produced the desired result. pl
If there is any chance that the Sunni could vote successfully against the constitution, SCIRI and Badr Corp will take care that they can not vote. Just bomb some election places and for do the “recount” like in the first election. Three days closed door recount by Allawi, like last time, or someone else will make sure that there is no suprise.
But than, as PL demonstrates, it’s irrelevant anyhow.