This a comment of Tom67 in reply to elkern in a recent post “Putin’s alternative pipeline flops quietly.” I find Tom67’s comment worth a separate post.
I am married to a Mongolian, speak Mongolian run an outdoors company in Mongolia and used to have a sideline doing journalism in Mongolia. So here in a nutshell is the Mongolian position:
1. Mongolians hate and fear China. If not for Russia Mongolia would be long gone and have suffered the fate of Tibet. That is simply a fact.
2. The Mongolian army is still closely linked to the Russian army and all higher officers have trained at the Frunse academy.
3. The Russians try to keep Mongolia as independent of China as much as possible. For instance they tried to organise a new railway line from one of the greatest copper mines in the world (Oyun Tolgoi) to the Transsib to give Mongolia the chance to export the copper not through China. There was much jockeying behind the scenes and the effort came to nought.
4. Economically China is slowly but surely taking over. This process has accelerated since the war in Ukraine began. Telecommunications is in Chinese hands and people don’t talk about certain subjects on the phone anymore.
5. Russia is between a rock and a hard place. Either lose Mongolia and have China no more than 250k from Lake Baikal (now more than a 1000k) or else lose in Ukraine and have NATO at her door.
For now China needs the help of Russia in the Taiwan matter. That is why I suppose China hasn’t been more forceful in Mongolia yet. Still the Chinese drive a very hard bargain and Russia certainly would prefer to open Nord Stream again. That is why I believe that Russia is still amenable to a negotiated solution in Ukraine. For the same reason I believe the Chinese won’t mind if the Ukraine war goes on for quite a while longer. Certainly a total Russian victory is the last thing they want.
Comment: Mongolia is obviously in a precarious geographic position and does not want to go the way of Inner Mongolia. And now both the US and NATO are sticking their toes in the Mongolian waters. Seems both Moscow and Washington can agree that Mongolia’s continued independence is a good thing. Perhaps we should make it known to Moscow that we prefer Mongolia and the states of Central Asia remain strongly within Russia’s sphere of influence and do what little we can to facilitate that rather than trying to isolate Russia from those nations. An isolated and bitter Russia is not in anyone’s interests, nor is a collapsed Russia. Russia’s turning to the East does not necessarily mean she has to turn,with hat in hand, increasingly to China.
TTG
Fascinating x N where N is a large number. Thanks TTG.
Fascinating and informative. Thank you for posting on a subject that is largely uncovered by any media.
Nothing says “North Atlantic ” quite like a landlocked county in central Asia. Apparently the Great Game players amongst the borg learned nothing from 2 decades in Afghanistan (and Pakistan’s perfidy), or they got rich as we got screwed.
Tom, concise, quality analysis – thx. real insight to appreciate a culture whose values are closely linked to their land & stretch back many, many centuries there. when I was working w/ a mining technology firm involved in that giant copper mine, I was impressed by the confluence… detailed planning reached forward over a half-century. like the China / Russia dynamic, it is having an equally massive impact on Mongolian people’s lives.
Surely they are not going to open a second front on china’s back-door,the other being se asia.
Tom67 seems to have good insight on the situation there. I suspect he’s right on all counts. I wonder though why Mongolia has neither CIS nor SCO membership? And is there a China clique within the Mongolian administration? Is there any irredentist movements in Mongolia to retake Buryatia? Or Tuva? Or any other lost territories? Or has it been too many centuries?
Yet, the US prioritizes short term gain for long term stability everywhere it can.
Buffer states are still important in modern world. Russia knows this but the US simply doesn’t care.
Most of the Russo-Chinese border has been negotiated three centuries ago, and it’s still the border.
Interesting information. It can’t be easy sitting between two essentially ambitious and paranoid giants. It seems that so far they have prevailed. I suspect those games will continue for awhile. I still maintain that eventually both Russia and China will have their hands full with internal matters.
Lars
the US should help them. Maybe someone like Nuland or Bolton could arrange
a little regime change operation, followed by a push for NATO membership.
That would do wonders for ensuring Mongolian territorial integrity and prosperity of their citizens.
Old Henry – already done. Mrs Nuland was in Mongolia only a little while back. There was considerable speculation at the time as to whether she had taken her cookies with her.
If she did, look out Mongolia!
EO,
Blinken met with the Mongolian PM and President on 1 August in Ulaanbaatar. We’ve had diplomatic relation with Mongolia since 1987. We upgraded our bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership in 2019. NATO has had a partnership relationship with Mongolia since 2004. Pretty sure that was all about our war in Afghanistan. Mongolian troops provided security at several airports we used in Central Asia.
“Perhaps we should make it known to Moscow that we prefer Mongolia and the states of Central Asia remain strongly within Russia’s sphere of influence”
I certainly agree with that,
and would extend it to
Ukraine and the other states immediately adjacent to Russia.
Thanks Tom67, you are very welcome.
Definitively worth highlighting, TTG. Well chosen image. 😉
Yes I want to thank Tom67 too, very much. I’ll copy paste these interesting (indeed) thoughts of Elena Panina here on a very recent publication of the Atlantic Council authored by former US Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst.
——————
https://t.me/EvPanina/14814
Atlantic Council: We need to push Russia – its “red line” in Kursk region is not working
The tools that Moscow uses in relation to Kiev and its Western masters to convey the idea that encroachment on the territory of the Russian Federation is unacceptable are obviously not working. What we are doing now is perceived by the enemy as weakness, and our unwillingness to respond in a form that is understandable to the West is perceived as a lack of technical capabilities for such a response . And the conclusion is drawn: we can continue to be impudent.
▪️ One of the influential American think tanks, the Atlantic Council (recognized as undesirable in the Russian Federation), sent as many as 16 of its fellows in the US Congress, employees of the Senate and the House of Representatives from both parties, to Kiev. There they met with the Ukrainian authorities and, characteristically, with the opposition in the person of Petro Poroshenko, Arseniy Yatsenyuk and former Prime Minister Groysman.
The Atlantic Council saw in everyone it met unbridled optimism and an even stronger desire to “defeat Russia.” And it writes: if Kiev is given the necessary resources, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will not only consolidate their successes, but also take advantage of “additional opportunities” – such as an invasion of the Belgorod and Bryansk regions.
Kiev is ready to turn a blind eye to the collapsing front near Pokrovsk, the Atlantic Council asserts. Because the invasion of “old” Russia is more important. It “must finally bury the opinion of high-ranking officials in Washington and Berlin that the West’s decisive support for Ukraine could provoke Putin to use nuclear weapons .” Since even the invasion of the Kursk region did not provoke a nuclear strike.
▪️ It is interesting that the author of the article is the former US Ambassador to Ukraine (2003-2006) and functionary John Herbst, flesh and blood of the State Department. That is , the opinions expressed in Kiev at least do not contradict the position of the US Foreign Ministry . At the same time, Herbst calls for the lifting of all restrictions on the use of Western weapons transferred to Kiev. And he advises Biden to “use his last months in power” to pass a new bill on assistance to Ukraine.
The article is certainly provocative, but it gives something to think about. The situation looks like the West itself sees the limit for itself only in a nuclear strike on Kiev. Of course, Russia could do it technically, but the political costs could be too high. And all this only leads to an increase in the level of escalation.
So are we heading towards a nuclear apocalypse? Not necessarily.
▪️ If we are to believe the Atlantic Council, Kiev is indeed ready to accept the loss of Donbass if in return it manages to consolidate its success in the Kursk region and, perhaps, attack two neighboring subjects of the Russian Federation. So the best action on our part would be to liberate Donbass with the transfer of military operations to at least the Dnipropetrovsk region . And in addition, the destruction of the enemy that has invaded the “old” territory and, finally, the formation of a sanitary cordon that will not allow such things to happen in the future.
▪️ Regarding the Atlantic Council’s conversations with Poroshenko and other opposition, we note the following. The circles represented by this think tank do not intend to end the conflict in Ukraine with the death or resignation of Zelensky – and therefore are building a “plan B” in advance for this eventuality.
This is yet another argument in favor of the fact that Ukraine, as a Russophobic socio-political entity, is incompatible with the interests of Russia – regardless of who holds the hetman’s mace in Kyiv.
Yikes. Are the NeoCons who have infested the Atlantic Council and the entire US Foreign Policy bureaucracy actually *trying* to goad Russia into using nuclear weapons? I wouldn’t be surprised; that would open the door for US (and/or Israeli) use of nukes; and NeoCons have been trying to apply lipstick to that pig for years.
Thx, Tom67! This – insightful perspective from someone who knows much more about a subject, area, or country than I do – is a big reason I have been part of this “Committee of Correspondence” for many years. I’m honored that my comment inspired your reply.
Mongolia and Mongolians certainly have good reasons for concerns about the rise of modern China (I’ve heard there’s some History there, eh?). I don’t really expect the PLA to invade, conquer, and annex Mongolia, though; as you say, “Economically China is slowly but surely taking over”, which fits right in with their general (continental and global) strategic plan.
I don’t view China as “expansionist” in the classical European mode, so I don’t expect them to go for Big Wars of Conquest. Mostly, China wants to control resources needed for its voracious economy, but controlling Mongolia’s Mineral Rights doesn’t necessarily require an invasion. OTOH, China’s huge population creates a kind of Lebensraum pressure; I would expect that Chinese companies in Mongolia are bringing in [Han?] Chinese managers and “experts”, as fast as they can. Is this happening? Or has Mongolia been able to prevent this so far?
And the same scenario is bound to be a problem for relations between Russia and China, as Chinese companies look to exploit Siberian resources. This is one of the main reasons that I think the USA should have avoided alienating Russia by expanding NATO.
FYI, here is a link to the original comment from elkern that kicked off this enlightening discussion:
https://turcopolier.com/putins-alternative-pipeline-flops-quietly/#comment-242151
elkern,
I’m guessing a Tibetan would disagree with your CCP love and excuse making.
Yes, of course, and China would use the same excuse (“Tibet was previously part of China”) if it invades and annexes Mongolia (which was also previously part of China (and vice-versa!!!)).
But China has changed a *lot* since 1959. Mao – and his wild, strident Revolutionary rhetoric – are long gone. China is no longer a pre-industrial basket-case, struggling to feed its people; it is now the pre-eminent industrial power of the 21st Century, and its focus on education will soon make it the top Tech power, too. China is reverting to its historical tendency as a deeply *conservative* State, focused on the safety and prosperity of its people (and leaders, of course).
China is currently using its economic and industrial might to increase its influence in *all* neighboring countries. Their progress is slow but steady in most of those places. Any use of the PLA to take over any one of those countries would be an instant loss of influence in all the others. So, while some faction in the CCP might want to invade Mongolia, other factions – with economic interests in other neighbors – will oppose any such rash action.
IMO, China will continue its current path of ensuring its interests – and expanding its influence – primarily through economic and diplomatic means for the next several decades at least.
Interesting visit by Putin yesterday to Mongolia, an International Criminal Court (ICC) member.
Putin’s visit to Mongolia defies ICC warrant and tests neutral nation’s ‘third neighbor’ diplomacy
https://theconversation.com/putins-visit-to-mongolia-defies-icc-warrant-and-tests-neutral-nations-third-neighbor-diplomacy-237942
al,
It would be foolish to expect Mongolia to arrest Putin. If they did, who would ride to their assistance and take Putin into custody?
Far more likely explanation for Mongolia’s choice to ignore the ICC warrant is made clear in the OP: without Russian assistance, Mongolia would quickly become a Chinese puppet (or province).
al,
Yes child abductions in Ukraine are serious crimes. And the numbers pale in comparison to the child trafficking going on across our Southern border. But the fine people, I assume some of them are fine people, in the Hague are sure quite about how all those kids cross all those borders prior to crossing ours.
Fred,
Kremlin officials bragged that 700,000 Ukrainian children were taken out of Ukraine to Russia. Around 150,000 unaccompanied children cross our southern border every year. About 60% of those are estimated to be trafficked by the cartels. Both the Kremlin and the cartels are doing a bang up job in the child trafficking arena.
Ukraine is responsible for an ample amount of child trafficking and pornography. So you can add your favorite freedom fighters to the bang up team.
Meanwhile, in the US, the pervert Democrat party contains supports the open borders that the cartels exploit and also seeks to expand sexual alterations, with factions even openly calling for further exploitations of children, make pedophilia legal, etc.
The Devil is walking taller than ever in this modern era, but we mustn’t be “judgmental”. Too masculine (= bigot, of course). Just be accepting of it all. So I can’t understand your criticism of Russia beyond obvious lobbying.
TTG,
Who amongst the nameless leaders of the cartels have the brave European based ICC named in a single indictment? Courage and justice, European style.
Fred,
Who are those nameless leaders? And who should refer those cases? Guatemala? Venezuela?
Fred: Good point.
TTG:
Nameless leaders are nameless, they have no names so neither Fred nor anyone else can name them.
Anyway on a serious note it’s being told that the ICC judge who ruled on that indictment of Putin was bribed by the British secret services via some leverage they had on a brother of the judge who was imprisoned in the UK on morals charges involving a young (underage) man. After the ICC indictment of Putin was authorized, according to this tale, the judge’s brother was released.
F&L,
I wouldn’t be overly surprised to find shenanigans in the ICC, but the indictment of Putin and Lvova-Belova was made easy by their bragging about abducting those Ukrainian children. It was state sponsored child trafficking.
TTG,
Good thing that nobody is evacuating any Gazan children out of Gaza. That would be terribly cruel compared to what is happening to them now.
James,
I doubt Hamas would let anybody evacuate children out of Gaza. And who would take them. I remember what happened with the evacuation to the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps. I had Italian Incursore friends from the 9th Parachute Assault Regiment guarding them after the massacres.
Sailors on camels? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2-zzcGuDaY
Great movie. Saw it about 70 years ago. But reading about it now I see that many of their problems were turf wars with the OSS and also with General Stilwell.
https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2018/12/30/how-naked-world-war-ii-sailors-ended-up-riding-mongolian-ponies-in-the-gobi-desert-to-shoot-bazookas-at-the-japanese/
Thx for links; very interesting story! Too bad those weather stations didn’t keep Halsey from sailing into typhoons (twice?)…
Thank you Tom67. I think Mongolia and most other countries have realised that Nuland and Co. are pure poison.
Walrus:
You Misspelled “Ghouland.” Common mistake.
Interesting factoid about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s childhood in Mongolia. He spent five years there in the city of Erdenet where his father, Oleksandr Semenovych, helped designed and helped build an automated mining management system there. It’s at the site of one of the world’s largest copper-molybdenum deposits.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erdenet#Notable_residents
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksandr_Zelenskyy#Academic_career