Toyota says it is close to being able to manufacture next-generation solid-state batteries at the same rate as existing batteries for electric vehicles, marking a milestone in the global race to commercialise the technology. Its headway in manufacturing technology follows a “breakthrough” in battery materials recently claimed by the world’s largest carmaker by vehicles sold. It would allow Toyota to mass-produce solid-state batteries by 2027 or 2028.
Solid-state batteries have long been heralded by industry experts as a potential “game-changer” that could address EV battery concerns such as charging time, capacity and the risk of catching fire. If successful, Toyota expects its electric cars powered by solid-state batteries to have a range of 1,200km — more than twice the range of its current EVs — and a charging time of 10 minutes or less.
But producing solid-state batteries in large volumes is costly and difficult, with Goldman Sachs warning of “a relatively tough path towards scaling up over the coming decade”. Problems include the extreme sensitivity of the batteries to moisture and oxygen, as well as the mechanical pressure needed to hold them together to prevent the formation of dendrites, the metal filaments that can cause short circuits. According to Toyota, one of the most critical and difficult technologies for mass production is the assembly process, in which the layers of cathode-anode cells need to be stacked quickly and with high precision, without damaging the materials.
When asked whether Toyota was now able to produce solid-state batteries at the same rate as current lithium-ion batteries, a Toyota engineer said: “In terms of the stacking speed, we are almost there. We are going to roll out bigger volumes and check the quality.” Toyota in September took journalists, analysts and investors on a tour of its Teiho plant in Aichi prefecture, where the company is preparing to produce solid-state batteries in large quantities. The plant tour followed a workshop in June, in which the company claimed to have found “a solution for materials” that would make the batteries last longer and deliver a stable performance.
Toyota last week announced a partnership with energy group Idemitsu Kosan to jointly develop and produce a solid-state battery material called sulphide solid electrolyte, which the companies said was most promising in addressing the durability issue. Development timetables have been pushed back repeatedly in the past, leaving many analysts sceptical about whether Toyota will be able to hit its latest commercialisation target.
https://www.ft.com/content/6224f235-568c-4e2f-8247-e7dacf0ef20c
Comment: This Financial Times article is a decent summary of this development, but a much better and far more in depth treatment is at this link.
https://www.topspeed.com/toyotas-745-mile-solid-state-battery-breakthrough-explained/
I consider electric vehicles to still be at the Model T/Model A stage primarily because of the battery technology. They provide limited range for long distance drivers, pose a grave danger if damaged and are so damned heavy that they quickly wear out the massive tires they all seem to sport. Once these solid state batteries are perfected, it will be a great leap forward for EVs.
Kudos to Elon for pushing EV technology as far as he has. Years from now, he will definitely be a chapter in the history of the EV. However, he really should employ some old school automotive engineers. Teslas have some Yugo-level design flaws.
I’ve been a VW guy from the beginning. I learned to drive on a ’68 bus and drove it 70 miles a day to my high school for two years. My first car was a ’71 Super Beetle, Old Blue by name. I drove it through college, took it to Hawaii and back and didn’t trade it in until 1986 on a new Golf, my first car with air conditioning. In the meantime, we had an ’80 Rabbit. We had the Golf through my long tour in Germany, putting well over 300,000 miles on it before donating it. Both my sons learned to drive on it. Also had a ’99 Passat Wagen and an ’01 Jetta which I still have. Next year I can get antique vehicle plates on that one. My new car is a ’16 Golf Sportwagen. I may have that until I die.
In line with this heritage, I’ve followed the development of the new VW ID Buzz, the throw back to the old microbus. I just find the concept cool. And it’s not another SUV. I hate that trend in both ICE vehicles and EVs. Still, the technology is too new. I don’t need one and it will cost far more than what i’m willing to spend on a vehicle. Now putting an electric motor in an old beetle is something I might like as a hobby project.
TTG
Even with a 10 minute charge time the infrastructure just isnt there. I recently drove a Tesla Y for 10 days in rural southern England. A mistake I wont make again. Chargers were few and far between. You cant trust the Tesla app that finds chargers for you because several times I got low, went to the location given, only to find the charger broken. When you are at 6% in rural Cotswold it isnt a situation you want to be in.
Having them go to 1.2k km will help alleviate some of the pressure on the infrastructure end. Aside from that, the Tesla Y was a very nice SUV to drive. If they can sort out the battery issue and get the infrastructure straight I’d certainly buy an EV.
Charging infrastructure is a problem now, but a similar problem existed back when gasoline cars were just beginning to become popular. It’s something that will solve itself, and likely quickly, as there is money to be made in satisfying that demand.
The infrastructure problem is much large. It’s not just charger stations. It’s new power plants. Remember all the energy from solid fuel is to be replaced with electricity. Which means there can come a lot of peak demand issues. It’s worse if you depend on solar/wind energy where you can have unpredictable production loss due to the weather. And no. You cannot save excess energy for rainy and windless days as you will incur an 80 % loss of the produced energy in the storage process. It’s far too expensive.
https://www.newsweek.com/californians-told-not-charge-electric-cars-gas-car-sales-ban-1738398
I didn’t say the solution is trivial. But it is straightforward, and it will happen – as I said, there is money in creating the solution, and therefore it will happen.
The problem is there is no solution for the unreliability of green energy. You have no viable economic solution on the table to store green energy from months with excess production (and no way of ensuring you will have excess energy production).
Plus the longevity of the means of production is much lower on green energy.
A big off-shore wind mill lasts around 15 years but a gas/coal power plant lasts ca 50-60 years. The same problem with solar. If we get a fully green energy system the number of wind mills and solar panels that needs annual replacing will be staggering. I wonder when we will run out of key input resources.
On top of the problems facing the rich world then we have say Africa were there simply is no energy infrastructure for EV. I’ve no doubt they will use fossil fuels for the rest of the century.
Poul,
1) DOE thinks the turbines last 30 years not 15.
https://windexchange.energy.gov/end-of-service-guide
2) PV is likely 30-35 years.
https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/end-life-management-solar-photovoltaics
3) The PV (and increasingly the wind) are completely recyclable, and I don’t think we’ll run out of the raw materials anytime soon.
4) You might find this interesting.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12618-3
5) Long-term electricity storage is the focus of a lot of work right now (unsurprisingly) and rapid progress is being made on a lot of technologies.
https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/net-zero-power-long-duration-energy-storage-for-a-renewable-grid
Peter Hug
Classic overpromise from the wind mills sector.
I have seen that in Denmark for decades. Vestas almost went bankrupt a couple of times from these problems.
Why do you think the companies have problems right now?
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/what-are-issues-with-siemens-gamesas-wind-turbines-2023-06-23/
It’s easy to promise that wind mills will last 15 years when you have to use a ton of money to fix them every few years. Why it’s almost a new wind mill.
Same with solar panels
the first over-the-road drive in a modern car was by Bertha Benz (Karl’s wife & biz partner) in ’88. she took the kids on a 65 mi round trip… stopped at an apothecary to fill up w/ naptha.
My first car was a 1953 Beetle and the second one a 1956 model. Many decades later I bought a VW bus that I drove across the country. One amusing trick that I learned was how to adjust the timing. All you needed was a wire and 2 alligator clips. You put one on the distributor and the other on the brake light. Then you turned the distributor til the brake light came on and then clamped it down. Don’t try that with anything on the road today, other than an old VW.
Lars,
The VW engine was a joy to work on. Never knew about that brake light trick. We just slowly moved the distributor until it sounded right. That was after adjusting the point gap. The valve gap was almost as easy to adjust as long as you have a feeler gauge.
TTG
The engine on my father’s old VW bus was not so easy to work on – you had to remove the rear bumper for a number of relatively basic tasks. I also recall when I was young having some fun trying to remove a seized wheel nut (a single one per wheel). After trying everything else we put a scaffold pole over the huge socket wrench bar and drove the bus onto it. The nut succumbed before we reached the full 12 foot tons of torque.
Lars,
Another way to do that was with a piece of thin cellophane from a cigarette pack in the points. Set point gap with a feeler gauge, don’t have a feeler gauge? The thickness of a cardboard book-match stem was close enough. Then get #1 piston to TDC, determined by feel through the spark plug hole. Turn the distributor until the points just release their grip on that cellophane. Once started, one could use a timing light to fine tune it but I never had to adjust more than a degree or two.
Ah, the good ol’ days when a shade tree mechanic could accomplish most anything.
Loved my 55 bug. Before rebuilding the engine I used to call it the 30-80 car – 30mph uphill and 80mph downhill.
There are at least three intractable problems that constrain EV usage.
The first is basic physics; a litre of gasoline hols some 3.5Kw of energy, so a hundred litre tank (say 25 gal) represents about 3500 Kw – and its pumped into your tank in maybe two minutes where its stored safely until required. We have developed the infrastructure to extract, refine, store, distribute and consume this energy efficiently over the last 100 years.
OK, so even making allowances for EV efficiency, if you could match energy capacity with gasoline (which we can’t yet) that means you and your family are sitting on 3000Kw of energy in your new EV and if that is released through a collision, flooding or over temperature event then you are going to get one heck of an explosion, exactly as if you set your gasoline on fire all at once.
Secondly we don’t have the infrastructure to generate and store the electric power required to supply an EV fleet. Wind and solar wont cut it. We need nuclear base load power.
Thirdly, EV batteries are heavy, very heavy.
EV has one major advantage: it is a marketers dream. Go look at home depot and price replacement batteries for power tools and you will get the idea. Also remember IBM in the heyday of mainframe computers? Screwing money out of customers for non existent “upgrades” ?Tesla is already doing that.
walrus,
Like I said, it’s just not there yet. The one advantage I can see with EVs is that I can charge them overnight in the garage. Can’t do that with a gas engine. Of course, that still no good for a long haul driver.
Walrus,
EVs also have wonderful software to optimize use which would never be used to shut down things like a Canadian trucker protest. Most importantly lots of people have been able to successfully run fueling stations; nobody wants to invest their own money in a commercial ev charging center.
Fred,
It’s not just EVs with satellite and/or cellular connections. Almost all newer vehicles are connected. I don’t think my ’01 Jetta has such a connection, but it does have AM/FM radio and a cassette player.
I think my ’95 Civic VX hatchback is pretty safe from being hacked remotely…
I listened to a show a few years back. They paid a hacker to hack into someone’s car and the hacker was able to control the vehicle, make the car break when it was driving. They are vulnerable across the board.
Stefan
it’s not just the cars. Far from it.
Check out flipper zero
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLIp4wd0oXs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RipwqJG50c
The whole idea of being able to shut down a vehicle remotely is a ship that has already sailed. Most modern vehicles could, theoretically, be shut down remotely as well, petrol or electric. So this isn’t an electric issue, it is a modern vehicle issue.
I love my outdoor, electric appliances, my chainsaw, hedge trimmer, leaf blower, and lawn mower. They are quieter and easier to handle than the gasoline version of those tools. I would ban fuel based leaf blowers, they are noise makers that incidentally blow air.
I wouldn’t call today’s issues with EV’s ‘intractable’. EV’s, like the Tesla, already have a range over 300 mi. Since solid state batteries have 3x more energy density, you can increase the range and still reduce weight over 50%.
Electric is going to dominate appliances up to the size of forklifts and be suitable for most passenger cars. Fossil fuels are going to dominate large vehicles like aircraft and container ships. Don’t know about trucks, but maybe Musk will show us the way by blowing up some more rockets.
walrus
But what are such minor inconveniences next to the reward of absolving oneself from the guilt of climate sin? Costly upgrades are a feature not a bug for the average Tesla owner. The higher the overall running cost, the more rarefied are the virtuous few able to lord their material & spiritual superiority over we impoverished climate sinners. Musk knows exactly what he’s selling and it’s not cars.
Back when Amory Lovins first ‘sold’ me on the new ev and everything nice future, he spoke about the low cost, low weight and everything wonderful. Elon’s big ..car represents the total opposite of what the Colorado boy spoke.
Amory was right about one thing: ‘Small is Profitable’ or making electrical resources the right size. Toyota should take the hint. Fuhgeddabout the 1200km battery. Concentrate on building a small, lightweight 300km battery to go in USPS delivery vehicles. And maybe the same size to be used in cars for commuters. Local delivery van fleets such as FedEx, DHL, UPS, etc should be hugely profitable. Another size for city buses, but those will have to compete price-wise with the growing fleets of hydrogen fuel cell buses. Short-haul fishing boats? Outboard motors? Micro-minis for chainsaws & lawnmowers?
for non existent “upgrades”
I beg to differ, I witnessed an actual upgrade from a 360/30 to a 360/40.
(removing a capacitor from the clock circuit and changing the sticker on the frame)
😀
walrus,
kW is a measure of power, not energy. What is wanted is kWh, which seems to be about 8.9 kWh per litre. The stories lack crucial statement of the total kWh capacity of the solid state battery, so we could estimate the charging rate required for the 10 min charge.
TTG,
The point of the Model T was to be field-maintainable so anything complex was eliminated from the design (also the cost factor). Probably the weakest link was the (like modern IC) coil-per-cylinder. That allowed for a simple camshaft driven commutator providing the high tension power to spark plug (mechanical linkage to steering column mounted lever rotated the commutator to vary timing). You also had a rod than ran through the firewall that could be twisted to position the needle valve in the carb to set mixture.
I suppose as car dealerships became a thing, service would be a profit center so naturally dealers would want more complex cars (initially, after-market addons were pitched to dealerships as a way to generate profits.) (My G-Grandfather had a blacksmith shop which evolved into Model T dealership in rural Eagle, Wisconsin.)
Regarding your comment on fires – EVs are not the only vehicles out there that catch fire. The bottom line is that driving an individual car (ICE or EV) is massively inefficient and also unavoidably creates urban environments that no longer work for pedestrians (the cars are just too damn big and if you build the system to fit them, actual people get lost in the shuffle).
https://www.kbb.com/car-news/report-evs-less-likely-to-catch-fire-than-gas-powered-cars/
Elon is a fraud and a snake oil salesman who will end up in prison like Elizabeth Holmes from Theranos…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91lxr3UD8ys&t=7s
A local air-carrier up here, Harbor Air, has developed an electric Beaver. It’s currently tied up in certification but the prototype has been flying for some time now. Were Harbor Air’s ops not rather uniquely short and often this would not be happening, however the company is convinced it will pay off for them. The price of fuel and increasing difficulty in obtaining radial engines forcing DeHavilland to go gas-turbine for new planes and conversions for the old makes this feasible. The electric motor can theoretically go more than twice as far between major overhauls and is far cheaper to begin with.
https://simpleflying.com/harbour-air-eplane-update-april-2023/
If the new solid state batteries become available, reportedly much lighter than the lithium which are currently are being used, it could be a game-changer in the world of short-haul aviation.
Regarding dendrites in the batteries, there are some really interesting chemical approaches to prevent that – more than that I cannot say.
EV’s “to be ” state looks promising and amazing. Unfortunately the “as is” state is depressing and hopeless.
My 85′ stick Golf had longer range, laughed at gas, easy and cheap to work on and was still running strong close to 300K miles. The onboard computer (me) did everything. It rolled up windows, changed spark plugs, fuel pump, oil, tires and washed and waxed it all for dirt cheap.
Only issue was the reverse lite. The node on the engine that engaged it wore down. I didn’t want to fix it because it would have costs more than the car was worth but that was at the 288K mark so it was time to part ways.
Imagine we lived in a world where all cars were EVs, and then along comes a new invention, the “Internal Combustion Engine”!
Think how well they would sell: A vehicle half the weight, half the price that will almost quarter the damage done to the road.
A vehicle that can be refuelled in 1/10th of the time and has a range of up to 4 times the distance in all weather conditions.
It does not rely on the environmentally damaging use of non-renewable rare earth elements to power it, and use far less steel and other materials.
Just think how excited people would be for such technology, it would sell like hot cakes!
wiz
Heresy! But yes, that’s a very good way to view this great leap backwards. The same goes for the abandonment of the almost limitless possibilities of nuclear power in favor of festooning our seas and countryside with what is essentially a medieval technology.
“Now I am become Green, the destroyer of landscapes”
Oh no! The bourgeois are going to go on vacation, travel to distant cities, and do just what we do. Next thing you know they’ll be banding together to buy politicians! Said the aristocracy of monied virtue.
All fair points and the ICE trounced EV’s in the 1800’s for the reasons you cited.
I guess the question remains, will EV’s ever be cost competitive. Mechanically, EV’s have less moving parts and have no need for motor oil. For now, the achilles heel is the battery which are getting better.
The next question, even if it’s cost effective why push for EV’s?
1. air quality? This is a tie, car exhaust hasn’t bothered me since the 70’s but I would love to replace those stinky diesel trucks and landscape trucks that smell like they burn candle sticks for fuel.
2. Energy independence, EV wins because we can use something other than gasoline to charge the batteries. Max U.S. oil production stands at 13M bbls/day, consumption stands at 19M bbls/day. Contrary to Trump talking points, we were never energy independent but we can scale up natural gas production to produce electricity without having to produce even more oil.
But yeah, your points are valid.
Those later versions of the Golf are the summit of automotive engineering for that type of machine. Handle like a dream and everything just right. No good for me. I run the supremely practical big French cars – seats down and there’s enough load space for anything.
I do miss the old cars though. A few spanners and there was nothing you couldn’t put right on them. I remember swapping a prop shaft over on one. I had the straw bales nicely set out and all ready to turn the car on its side for easy working. My neighbour, an immensely strong farm worker, chanced by, took in the arrangements of jacks I had ready, laughed, and before I knew what he had in mind tipped the car over on the bales single handed and went on his way.
Now it’s a trip to the garage for anything and even then, when it’s complicated, they have to pass it on to the specialist. And a simple service costs more than my old bangers used to cost. That Volkswagen Golf derivative is a beauty but really, for what I need in daily life, I’d be more than contented with something as simple and easy to work on as the old Model T. I think they could plough with it too, which’d be a bonus none of the modern manufacturers think to offer.
TTG, are you ok?
This blog is a burden, I wondered that PL in spite of all managed to keep it up. And I wish I understood how ill he was at our latest comment section encounter as someone else.
What is Harper doing? Longtime we did not hear of him. Who else of the contributors /junior editors vs the ones invited is still around?
Maybe the “Cherry Blossom King” pilgrim supporters insider and outsiders want to gear up on their support for the reelection of their master-of-ceremony into power? Like: Fred, Barbara Ann, English Outsider, the latter may want to join in support as outside supporter. Maybe? Eloquently?
For whatever reason I feel Fred was a special favorite of PL, once he invited him apparently into one of our private exchanges via, was it cc or bcc, I forget. Once in a while I was reminded of matters.
Otherwise we are approaching the legendary Russian election hacking dates, aren’t we?
vig,
I’m ok, but I am going through my own depot level maintenance as I once described Colonel Lang’s health problems. Nothing like his problems and no hospital stays, but plenty of other shit. Once it’s more or less over, maybe I’ll talk about it more. That’s the main reason I’m slowing down the posting. Hang in there. I will.
I like Fred and I like his posts. I wish he would post more. If anybody wants to post an article, I’m more than open to it. I did it for D74’s post on Pierre Favre.
TTG,
Hope you depot maintenance runs smooth. I’ll see if I can draft something up, but got the family issues tying up time.
All: Thanks for the compliments. I’ll try not to be a PITA to everyone
I’m ok, but I am going through my own depot level maintenance
Take care of yourself. Best wishes from me too.
Sorry to hear about your maintenance requirement TTG and my best wishes. As I said to the Colonel on more than one occasion; take break if you need to, we’ll still be here when you get back.
I’d second Vig’s point about guest posts lessening the burden – as well as broadening the blog’s appeal of course. I did send you material for a suggested post a while back and won’t be offended if you didn’t consider it worthy. I’d want to rewrite it now anyhow. If I feel inspired by anything I think the Committee would be interested in I’ll get in touch.
Barbara Ann,
You may have sent your guest posts to an address I can’t access. I’ll have to change that. In the meantime, I’ll send you an email address you can submit your suggested posts later today. I remember you were working on something.
Meanwhile China has shipped a few million NEVs.
” the term new energy vehicle (NEV) is used to designate automobiles that are fully or predominantly powered by electric energy”
“China has been the world’s best-selling plug-in electric passenger car market for nine years running, from 2015 to 2023, with annual sales rising from more than 207,000 plug-in passenger cars in 2015, to 579,000 in 2017, and just over 7 million units in 2023.[19] A particular feature of the Chinese passenger plug-in market is the dominance of small entry level vehicles, in 2015 representing 87% of total pure electric car sales, while 96% of total plug-in hybrid car sales were in the compact segment.[20]”
Source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_China