"Walrus" sent me this. I am not "Walrus." I agree with much of this, especially the numbered points. pl
To do so, you need to understand what the NeoCons objectives have been from the outset. They are a little Like Kaiser Wilhelms’ reasons for encouraging German militarism from about 1900.
1. Protect the existence and power of the "military Industrial Complex". This has been under threat since the demise of the Soviet Union because people started to demand a "peace Dividend". The result was the PNAC and the idea that America, now being the sole pre-eminent superpower, should maintain this position – in other words keep spending on defence.
2. Demonise Arabs, the existence of an enemy is a pretext by a ruling class for postponing any social change aimed at reversing the massive social inequities between rich and poor in America for example reforming taxation, social security, health care, education, etc. etc. "because we are at war". These issues threaten the rich.
In other words, the entire NeoCon thing is all about maintaining the status quo and keeping the lid on the pressures for reform.
Then of course we have the Israeli Likudnik plan – which is to provide the demonic enemy with which the NeoCons have conjured with. If one listens to them one would think that Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, Iran, the Taliban, Al Qaeeda, the muslim brotherhood, and the rest of these organisations are part of the evil Islam Inc. which is plotting to take over the known universe, controlled by a group of bearded and bejwelled fiends living in a cave high in the mountains of Iran, even now plotting the destruction of Peoria or some place.
They have successfully enticed us into destroying their main enemy – Iraq for them.
That is the reality we are being sold.
Of course on the ground in Iraq there is real "reality" which is considerably different from the NeoCon/Likudnik version.
So anyway they are now confronted with a mess – and as the Kagan powerpoint presentation points out, failure will be cataclysmic.
Of course what they really mean is that failure will be cataclysmic for them and their backers.
If America backs out of the middle east leaving Iran intact, the following will happen:
1. Iran is now the recognised regional power in the Middle East and will have a very large say in dictating what happens to the remains of Iraq.
2. Israel will be faced with the need to make some form of accomodation with the Islamic powers in the region.
3. Successive Congresses will bind the President and the military industrial complex hand and foot to prevent a repeat of this folly.
4. Right wing thinktanks and their associated pundits will be discredited.
5. Congress will have to reform taxation to pay for the war (remember when Iraqi Oil revenue was supposed to cover the cost of all this?)
6. A decade of soul searching and reform about the electoral system, the media, campaign finance, lobbying and similar issues will occur – sharply reducing the powers of the current ruling class to manipulate Americans so easily.
In other words, for Bush and his friends, defeat really is "unthinkable", just as it was to Kaiser Wilhelm when Wilson proposed a "victorless Peace" to Germany in 1917. Unless there is victory, the entire NeoCon world gets swept away, as do the Likudniks.
For that reason, expect a savage campaign to clear Baghdad of insurgents – which will fail with the loss of a great deal of American and Iraqi blood, followed by an all out bombing attack on Iran.
For the NeoCons, there is no other choice available to them, that is the tragedy.