Whither 2018?

Posted on December 29, 2017 by Pat Lang

One of the members suggests that we give our opinions as to the coming year's major developments. Good Idea! Not too long please. pl

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63 Responses to Whither 2018?

Walrus says:

December 29, 2017 at 7:17 pm

Putin delivers Trump TTG’s “punch in the mouth” most probably over American continued meddling in Ukraine.
Prem says:

December 29, 2017 at 7:21 pm

1. Syria – by this time next year the war will, essentially, be over. Idlib will be liberated with “reconciled” enclaves. Syria, Russia, Turkey, Iran and PKK will reach an understanding on autonomy for Rojava. The US will be out of the picture.
2. Iran – the protest movement will fizzle out.
3. The US “party of war” will try and heat things up in Ukraine as Plan B. Trump will not be able to retrain them much. As far as foreign policy goes he is in office, but not in power.
4. Trump won’t reign in MBS. Yemen will be a disaster, but MBS won’t crash and burn in 2018.
5. GOP will get crushed in mid-terms but not enough for GOPinc to collude in impeachment. Mueller will get nowhere but the MSM noise machine will keep him in business.
6. Despite cosmopolitan hysteria it will become clear that a hard Brexit will happen in March 2019.
Linda says:

December 29, 2017 at 7:55 pm

1 North Korea issue will ramp down; 2 Neocons will bring us close to war with Iran; 3 Famine and death in Yemen will be ignored by everyone, mostly the US; 4 Our president today said global warning can be good so I guess we can forget about any efforts on that issue. So, I think I will stop there with my succinct and awesome predictions. Note this is sarcasm!
rkka says:

December 29, 2017 at 8:09 pm

The delivery of Javelin antitank missiles to the Ukrainian army will not signal intensification of military operations there. After the massive munitions dump explosions of September 2017 and March 2017, Ukraine does not have the artillery munitions inventory to sustain offensive operations for more than a brief time. And the Russian government is surpassingly unlikely to supply sufficient munitions for the Donbas separatists to significantly expand their territory.
So another year of desultory artillery strikes & small arms skirmishing is in store for Eastern Ukraine, with no significant politico-military developments there.
2019 will be different, because the long-term natural gas contracts between the Soviet Union and her European customers, specifying Uzhgorod in Western Ukraine as the point for delivery, expire, and Ukraine will lose the gas transit business that has helped sustain her economy since independence.
There goes $2.5 billion a year in transit fees for the Ukrainian economy. That will hit Ukraine hard.
Lars says:

December 29, 2017 at 8:15 pm

The GOP lose their congressional majorities.
JohnA says:

December 29, 2017 at 8:36 pm

Happy New Year Col Lang and fellow travelers,
It’s a bit of a guessing game, the future, and since M K Bhadrakumar
has been one of my frequent sources of enlightenment over the last few
years I’ll go along with M K’s 2018 guesses: http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2017/12/29/2018-hotspots-are-in-eurasia-and-middle-east/
Peace and Joy to all commemorating Hogmanay this year.
Thanks for your intensely interesting and very sharp reporting and our committee’s commentating. I am very grateful.
Timothy Hagios says:

December 29, 2017 at 9:06 pm

I am inclined to think that the conflict in Donbass will come to an end in 2018, one way or another. The Russian presidential election is just three months away, and if there were ever a time when Putin’s hands would be tied, this would be it.
Ishmael Zechariah says:

December 29, 2017 at 9:18 pm

Col. Lang, SST;
Notwithstanding the incomparable Yogi (It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future),here are my predictions (aka SWAG) for 2018:
1-In Turkey tayyip will become a lame duck.
2-In Syria Assad will maintain his power for the entire year.
3-The Kurds of Syria will switch sides and start collaborating w/ the Assad regime.
4-Nobody is going to attack Iran or North Korea.
5-Israel is not going to attack Hizbullah.
6-The “Russian manipulation of US elections” meme will implode with a whimper.
7-Trump will not be impeached in 2018.
Ishmael Zechariah
Happy New Year to all of you and yours.
Laura says:

December 30, 2017 at 12:24 am

More of the same…as our President’s dementia becomes more evident and we all try to ignore it. Hans Christian Anderson would understand.
Not In Istanbul says:

December 30, 2017 at 1:05 am

Here are my doom and gloom predictions for the next year…
** US attack on and Chinese occupation of N. Korea by May
** Popping of bitcoin bubble, another emerging market crisis, first obvious failure of ZIRP as markets turn south 10-20% in a matter of a few weeks
** East Ukraine conflict flares up again, drawing heavy handed Russian intervention, while Israel given green light to invade Syria and threaten Damascus to counter the “growing” Iranian threat. US offers to create no fly zone to provide cover
** Markets decline another 20-30%
** S. American forces allied with US invade and occupy Venezuela (lead given to Brazilian forces, military bribed to assume power and not to resist)
** Fake assassination attempt on Erdogan, blamed on sinister NATO agents, Turkey temporarily ceases dealings with alliance, evicts all staff, and RTE uses it as an opportunity to distract populace from massive devaluation of Lira to 6 to 1 USD
Heros says:

December 30, 2017 at 5:41 am

The Calm Before The Storm will end in 2017, and #TheStorm will hit in 2018.
Robert Steele, among many others, has been shedding light on some developments going on behind the curtain. There are reports of over 4000 sealed indictments in federal courts, strange goings on with Hillary and John McCain wearing special boots for weeks at a time and then going silent at Christmas.
There have been resignations of dozens of large corporate executives and other VIP’s in 2017. Here are some of the companies involved:
Google, GE, Disney, Novartis, Kellogg, Chevron, HP, Samsung, American Express, Panera, Uber, Bose, Kohls, Anthem Health, Tenet Health, United Health, Madison Square Garden, Amtrak, Bentley, NYPD, and on and on and on.
It is unbelievable, but there is a MSM link behind every one. Something big is going down in 2018.
Here are the 3 Twitter feeds listing resignations with supporting news/press releases:
https://twitter.com/antischool_ftw/status/944894723252039680
https://twitter.com/antischool_ftw/status/944960699016527873
https://twitter.com/antischool_ftw/status/945536182351380480
Lincolnite says:

December 30, 2017 at 8:19 am

My desire to remain well informed is currently at odds with my desire to stay sane. I doubt 2018 is going to improve matters, Thank goodness for Sic Temper Tyrannis andits insightful capacities.
rjj says:

December 30, 2017 at 9:03 am

Am still working on whence (too vast to multitask).
Morongobill says:

December 30, 2017 at 10:22 am

My prediction is that this Russia Gate will blow over but the massive amount of egg will remain on the msm’s faces and the Donald will never let them forget it. There will be no impeachment. I also believe that we will not come to blows on the Korean peninsula, and that Russia and China will help provide a face saving way out of the situation.
jonst says:

December 30, 2017 at 10:26 am

If the economy continues to grow like it has been the last few quarters, i.e. above 3%, the Nation will begin to forget about overseas adventures. A bit. It will begin, even, to forget about cultural and immigration issues. A bit. And a kind of 1920’s decadence and money making obsession will take over. Again. None of this may last…in the long run. But in the short term, next few years, it will boom.
Maybe.
jpb says:

December 30, 2017 at 10:52 am

The trend divergence between narrative and reality will increase exponentially. The divergence will induce increased instability and uncertainty into finance, culture, and politics. The manipulation of narrative skillfully empowers and enriches incompetent elites who edge closer to dramatic mistakes in geo-political reality of war.
Mercenary armies, financialization, political corruption, educational incompetence, etc reduce the USA’s capacity to absorb the mistakes of empire. The best we can hope for the new year is a whine and a whimper and the sacrifice of scapegoats; as renewal would imply civil war between the American host and the globalist parasite.
jld says:

December 30, 2017 at 10:56 am

reign -> rein
It is MBS who will reign over Saudi Arabia.
Not a native English speaker but this gets annoying and it occurs also in French, people seem more and more unable to properly use language.
I wonder where this comes from…
Bill H says:

December 30, 2017 at 10:58 am

In regard to #5, Special Prosecutors are not supposed to “accomplish” anything. It is the investigation itself that matters, not the outcome. It is all for show and to help manipulate the media show. It is supposed to last as long as possible and to involve as many “suspects” as it possibly can, and Mueller is playing his part as expected.
jld says:

December 30, 2017 at 11:00 am

Are you also aware that stray planet Nibiru has a good chance to hit the Earth according to some prophecies?
Adrestia says:

December 30, 2017 at 11:03 am

The EU crisis will intensify
The EU has multiple issues that are shaking its foundations
* The EURO rules of Maastricht treaty remove the ability of national politicians to stimulate their economies with:
1. Printing money
2. Running a deficit
Austerity and privatizing are the only options left. When not changed this will increasingly alienate national citizens against the EU as all recent elections show that the ruling pro-Europe political parties have lost. This will continue until anti-EU parties will win the majority (in a coalition).
The Italian general elections may well be the first big economy which will leave the Euro-zone. Populist right and left have a pact to get out of the Euro. If this happens this will also be the trigger for the continuation of the Great Financial Crisis (which has never been away for the economical lower 50% of the voters)
Catalonia and Brexit are other manifestations of the anti-EU sentiments.
* (lack of) solidarity and common traditions between countries. Richer against poorer countries, east versus west, etc. Refugees (economical, political and war) are probably the best example. Italy and Greece get the bulk of refugees entering Europe. Eastern Europe refuses agreed quote of refugees (IMO totally useless, but significant for the EU-solidarity. This is a national, political sign of anti-EU sentiment.
The EU has also started an Article 7 procedure against Poland because of Poland’s changes in the judicial system. This could lead to sanctions, loss of voting rights and ultimately expulsion. This is the first time and is another crack appearing.
The EU is becoming very fragile.
The Great Financial Crisis that started in 2007 will resume
The GFC has never gone away. The Quantative Easing programs of the Fed and the ECB has been to the benefit of the top 20% in the west. Especially the lower 50% has not benefitted at all and have paid the price. Inflation caused by these trillions are now starting to appear in common products such as food (at least in my country)
Tax-cuts and profits in Europe and the US have been used to inflate asset prices and the stock market. There have hardly been any investments in new production assets and jobs. This makes a lot of people feel richer (especially with their homes) and causes a false sense of optimism. When reality (or an unexpected war) hits, the fall will be bigger than 2007/2008 was.
Thomas says:

December 30, 2017 at 11:11 am

Muhammad bin Salman gets to meet Allah face to face, along with all the others that left before, thanks to him.
You do not torture a man like Bandar bin Sultan and allow him to live. As for the foreign experts that applied the “enhanced interrogation techniques”, they better be long gone on that day or they will learn the dark side of the Golden Rule.
turcopolier says:

December 30, 2017 at 11:19 am

Thomas
Having dealt with Bandar bin Sultan a lot I am intrigued by the idea of him being enhancedly interrogated. Is there a link to that story? pl
John Minnerath says:

December 30, 2017 at 11:35 am

For 2018 things will remain much the same.
The Democrats and the left will continue on their path of self destruction and Trump will continue to flounder in his attempt to do what he sees as right for the country while his enemies in the GOP try to thwart him.
The rhetoric with North Korea will go up and down, but I see no madman scenario.
Meanwhile I’ll try to keep enjoying what simple pleasures I can. Good pipe tobacco, good coffee, and good Scotch whisky although they all get harder to find and more expensive.
A. Pols says:

December 30, 2017 at 11:55 am

What sort of predictions might have been made for New Years, 1914?
Or New Years 2001?
The role of the unexpected in determining future events is so “biggly yuge” that events have a way of mocking prognosticators.
People in Britain were pretty sure in 1938 that war with Germany was coming, but none had a clue about how that war would play out and, Edward Rydz-Śmigły, could speak of a “cavalry ride to Berlin”, but then came that punch in the mouth.
About the best any of us can do is to say how things might play out, assuming antecedent conditions are met.
So events in the Donbas could sputter on, or not. And, if not they they could devolve into a general war, a new “Crimean war”. And in Syria, Assad could very well consolidate his positions and the area could stabilize, or not if other players do certain things.
Then there are Black Swan events. Maybe Putin is assassinated or keels over from a heart attack and, then what?
And then we have the dust-up with NOKO. Maybe we attack in the night and seize their choke points; the whole thing ends with a whimper. Or we do the same and they turn out to be able to nuke Seoul and they get lucky and hit LA, while at the same time our ground forces are already in NOKO and we have nobody to play out our glowing ashtray final act with. Wouldn’t that be interesting? Or things go on; they test another table thumper and do a missile born atmospheric test in an isolated ocean area outside shipping lanes and the indissoluble standoff just sharpens.
We face the next year with many possibilities and I can’t begin to say where we will be in another 12 months, only many possibilities of dramatic changes and many possibilities of things staying close to the same. Maybe that’s the best hope…
ex-PFC Chuck says:

December 30, 2017 at 11:56 am

While we’re somewhat off topic, I just saw on my Twitter feed that the King of Jordan has fired his three brothers from the armed forces and put them under house arrest, based on evidence that they were fomenting a coup with Saudi help.
https://twitter.com/AlSuraEnglish/status/946789594141462528
Fellow Traveler says:

December 30, 2017 at 11:58 am

There was a previous report of one of the detained generals dying in custody. This cnbc story mentions Bandar being tortured FWIW.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/01/why-saudi-prince-bin-talals-friends-havent-protested-his-arrest-commentary.html
Willybilly says:

December 30, 2017 at 11:59 am

Thomas is right. MBS will be taken out, as well as Netanyahou in 2018.
eakens says:

December 30, 2017 at 12:24 pm

We will ramp up for military action on North Korea in late February or March and last minute diplomacy will avoid war.
MBS will be gone by end of 2018.
Israel will do nothing but push settlements.
Tax collections drop as mass wave of s-corps reclass to c-corps next year. Dividend paying stocks soar. Tax savings go to fuel buybacks and boost exec competition tied to stock performance, setting up the next crash which will probably arrive in 2019-2020 when stagflation hits.
Thomas says:

December 30, 2017 at 12:30 pm

Sir,
I was remembering off hand and a quick google search leads to this original article in the Middle East Eye.
http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/exclusive-senior-figures-tortured-and-beaten-saudi-purge-1489501498
It states that he was not arrested or among the early recipients of the treatment.
“Saudi authorities said that one of the corruption cases they are looking at is the al-Yamamah arms deal, in which Bandar was involved. But Bandar himself is not under arrest and living in Jeddah, a source told MEE.”
Now looking back I probably picked that tidbit from links of posters here or at b’s place and made the assumption that, Muhammad being a royal idiot and buddies with the neocons, he would do something totally stupid as that act.
I will take it as a rumor and perhaps unlikely.
The overall prediction that Muhammad bin Salman leaves the world still stands, with those he did give the treatment to and Bandar, humiliated by his dismissal and asset grab, teaming up to take down the tiny tyrant.
Somewhat on topic, I was helping a neighbor who keeps her TV on all the time and yesterday it was on CNN. What intrigued me was the repetitive commercials by the Saudi’s Global 2030 initiative, a real twofer, payoff to CNN and info op for the gullible and wishful.
Happy and Prosperous New Year to you, our community and even the “Agriculturists and Pastoralists” posting here. May 2018 be better for all of us.
Degringolade says:

December 30, 2017 at 12:44 pm

2018: Shit, I’ll be 65.
I ran my mouth, now I gotta deliver my share of the goods.
Prediction One: Trump will be in office and unindicted at the end of calendar year 2018
Look, governing is one thing, political theater is another. Both parties are bankrupt of ideas and solutions are nowhere to be found within their current structure. But the parties themselves have an instinct for survival. Both can distance themselves from the clown show. With the clown prince in place and drawing attention, they don’t have to fix anything and they are hoping to a triumphant return to the election politics of “I am better than Trump and Whoever”
Prediction Two: Saudi “Issues”
I think the real problem is Saudi is “Supply Side” problems. The internal problems are not the disease, but a symptom.
Look, Gwahar has been swinging down for years. I think that the way that the market is structured has allowed them to mask this piece of data for a couple of years now, but I think that those days are coming to an end. If this field is in serious decline, then there are big, big, big economic problems. I think that what the crown prince is doing is thinning the herd pre-emptively.
Prediction Three: The Beginning of the Slow Strangulation of the Petrodollar
Look, if you want me to go full Jeremiah on this, you are coming to the wrong year. Chances are, I will initially call this “wrong” when I review in 2019, but I’ll bet that this will be the year you will look back on in ten years and point at as being the “start” of the crapification of the petrodollar.
Prediction Four: Midterms
Who.fucking.knows.
Prediction Five: Russia, China, Iran pull a miltary “come together” moment, maybe even a formal treaty.
Truth is, I don’t see anything intelligent coming out of D.C. of late. That goes for both sides of the Washington “Aisle”. So I see us continuing to bluster and threaten, and forcing these three “very unlikely” bedmates together because they are certain that both sides of the aforementioned “aisle” have gone insane.
Thoughtful and intelligent correspondents of the Colonel’s site will spend a great deal of time questioning my sanity along with my fitness to walk alone without an attendant, but that is my call.
Prediction Six: Another kick of the can.
This is the hard one. Right now it is a 50%/50% deal. Either way. We either go big and go home in Korea. My bet is that we cut another deal.
Prediction Seven: Stock Market down for the year.
Margaret Steinfels says:

December 30, 2017 at 12:50 pm

The Democrats will not retake the Senate.
Leading the Gazillionaires and foreign entities to pour money, and other influences, into Trump’s 2020 rerun.
Fred says:

December 30, 2017 at 1:19 pm

My 2018 projections:
1) We may actually find out just what happened in Las Vegas though it may be the end of the year. One only has to wonder what is taking so long.
2) #metoo will continue to dog Hollywood and the Media. Numerous calls for the establishment of sex stassi will be made on liberal college campuses, which will accelerate #3
3) College enrollments will plummet at schools with significant anti-free speech and presumption of guilt polices. The adminstrators will double down throughout the year.
4) There will be at least one assasination attempt made on DJT or a member of his family.
5) Those behind the “dossier” will finally be exposed unless #4 occurs early in 2018.
6) DACA Amnesty is going to be unsuccessful as Pelosi and Schumer and Trump won’t be able to make a deal that will work.
7) The proclamation of an emerging “millenial majority” will show itself as “Opprossed (by) America Forever” (Obama For America) moves to further wrench control of the Democratic party from the thoroughly discredited establishment.
Charles Michael says:

December 30, 2017 at 1:40 pm

here are some previsions:
– January will see Nethanyahou in jail for corruption (suggested by Indian Punchline)
– the new tax law will bring back capitals not jobs
– the stashed money from US mega company will be shifted from German, French and Swiss banks. One can anticipate some new bank crisis in Europe. It could trigger some independence from US dollars and financial but I would not bet on EU finding a spine.
– still decay and fragmentation of EU will increase. Italy with no government and very bad debts in their Banks will be primed for exiting the euro.
– Syria will see peace by the end of 2018 and following YGP kurdish agreement and satisfaction, the US troops will retire with full honor.
see:
http://www.atimes.com/article/guns-fall-silent-russia-shape-syrias-political-endgame/
– USA will stay deeply divided along education level lines and black and white
communities will still routinely despice each other as somme sort of existentialism.
Hylary Clinton will terminate Sanders by poisonning his Easter chocolate.
So, there is what Will surely happen in 2018, except if I am wrong.
But I wish all members of the commitee and followers of SST a very good year
robt willmann says:

December 30, 2017 at 3:32 pm

Fellow Traveler,
In the article you cited, I do not see where it says that Bandar bin Sultan has been tortured. It does discuss Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, who is a different person from “Bandar Bush”.
ann says:

December 30, 2017 at 3:37 pm

1) A new political party will form in the U.S. using the Constitution as its basis 2) Trump will keep his promise to remove U.S. troops from foreign engagement. 3) U.S. Citizens will take some responsibility for the stuff they feed their face.. Just dreaming, actually.
ann
Rd says:

December 30, 2017 at 4:27 pm

The fed will continue raising interest rates (multiple times) in preparation for the next “market adjustment” or the mass transfer of wealth to the rubber barons.
Richardstevenhack says:

December 30, 2017 at 5:32 pm

My two primary predictions for 2018:
1) Israel will attack Hizballah in Lebanon (again) – this time with US air power assistance and possibly NATO assistance.
Israel and the US will attempt to extend this assault into Hizballah and Iranian forces insides Syria which MAY devolve into a general war with Syria. Since Russia screwed the US attempt to do a “Libya” on Syria, this is the US and ISrael’s last chance to degrade Syria’s military prior to an Iran war.
What Russia will do in the event the war escalates into a general war on Syria is unclear. I predict Russia will not intervene if the war is limited to Hizballah in Lebanon and ONLY Hizballah in Syria.
However, the US will not start a war with Iran in 2018. That depends on how well the US and Israel can degrade Hizballah because Israel cannot afford an Iran war in which Hizballah (and possibly Syria) are participants.
And I predict the US and Israel will achieve only very limited or no success in seriously degrading Hizballah in Lebanon. However, Israel may attempt to occupy a portion of southern Lebanon to compensate and try to force Hizballah further north so that Hizballah missiles will be less likely to cover all of Israel.
2) Trump will do some sort of military attack on North Korea. Negotiation is almost impossible at this point – too much would have to be walked back for both Trump’s ego and the preconditions required on both sides.
How this war develops will depend on what Trump has been advised by his Pentagon handlers. If he is told the US could slow down NK’s development efforts by a limited attack – and thus allow Trump to think he could run out the clock on his administration by conducting periodic limited strikes or that NK could be pushed to negotiate – then he might do that. If he has been advised that only a major ground invasion can stop NK’s development efforts (which some officials have already said), then he may do that.
Even if he tries a limited attack, NK will certainly retaliate and thus Trump will be forced to escalate. This is likely to quite quickly turn into a full-scale war.
If it develops into a full-scale war, the war will be ongoing throughout 2018. There will be no easy victory for the US/SK forces. The war will be the worst war the world has seen since the first Korean War. There is an excellent chance the US/SK forces will bog down, effectively losing the war.
I predict the war will end once China intervenes in a non-military-confrontational way with the US and SK either early or once it appears the North is losing. There will be another armistice and an eventual withdrawal back to the 38th Parallel after some years of negotiations.
If the US/SK does win and China does not intervene, there will be a NK insurgency that will make the Iraq and Afghan insurgencies look like a tea party.
As for other predictions, I could suggest some possibilities.
1) The DNC “hack” is proven to be a leak. CrowdStrike – or alternatively, some Ukrainian hackers – are proven to have faked the alleged “hack” evidence.
The likely catalyst for this will be an article by Sy Hersh exposing the FBI coverup of the Seth Rich murder being connected to Wikileaks receiving the emails and/or Assange finally providing proof that the Wikileaks emails could not have come from the Russian government or a DNC hack.
2) Although the Mueller investigation continues through much of 2018, nothing of substance sufficient to organize an impeachment drive will be discovered, although some sort of corrupt business practices by Trump may be revealed.
3) If either the US attack on NK or Lebanon (or both) proves a disaster (quite likely), there may be movement for Trump tor resign over the failures. Trump will refuse.
4) Ukraine may erupt in full-scale war again. Or not. If it does, it will be a replay of the previous full-scale war, i.e., Ukraine will lose and Russia will do whatever necessary to make sure of it.
Personally, although the neocons and NATO would love it, I think Putin should invade Ukraine, take Kiev in 72 hours, kill all the oligarchs, wipe out the neo-Nazi battalions, install a puppet regime, maybe even annex Donbass – then go home immediately. He should do this especially if the US starts a war with Syria over Hizballah and Iran.
5) A LOT of people are predicting another financial disaster a la 2008 or much worse. I don’t know enough economics to make a prediction. But it’s safe to say the economy will get worse to some degree.
6) China’s OBOR will continue rolling along, as will efforts to sideline the dollar as petrocurrency. China, BRICS, and Iran will all get along with this easily. This is partly what Iran sanctions are all about, and they will fail miserably.
7) People will keep seeing UFOs. LOL
Croesus says:

December 30, 2017 at 5:49 pm

What Lincolnite said, with emphasis on thanks for Sic Semper Tyrannis.
I’m much to prone to wishful thinking to be able to make a calculated assessment of what 2018 might bring. I hope a Black Swan comes between Trump &cie and their obsession with Iran.
In my small corner of the world, 2018 will involve much deeper study and enjoyment of the great operas and their composers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IASG9QzTy4E
Happy New Year to All.
JohnB says:

December 30, 2017 at 6:33 pm

Prem – I do like the “in office but not in power” when it comes to foreign policy as I think that neatly sums up Trump’s position.
Syria – I am slightly more pessimistic as to 2018 than some commentators on here – I think Assad enters 2018 more vulnerable than he has been for the whole of this present conflict. If he survives this year he will have done very well. Russia is determined to have a settlement by the end of the year and the only way to derail this would be take Assad out of the game.
US Foreign Policy – Expect more of the same. The death of American Exceptionalism has been overstated. Trump will continue it but it will be an even more brutal form of ‘Exceptionalism’. Don’t forget he is a “gloves off sorta guy”.
Ukraine – US regime change failure in Syria means that this theatre will become more important in 2018 and the danger for European Security is all to evident.
Happy New Year to all those on this committee. Let’s hope were all around to enjoy 2019.
GeneO says:

December 30, 2017 at 6:53 pm

I agree with Ishmael Zechariah predictions above. Or maybe I am just hoping he is correct.
But I would add that Erdogan’s enclaves in Syria will unfortunately still be there under TKK and FSA control.
kooshy says:

December 30, 2017 at 9:15 pm

What a joke, there is nothing that can be calledE “E.u nationalism ” there is no such thing ever existed, french are nationalist for france so are Germans for Germany and so on. Europe history of wars is due to self serving nationalism of individual states .
The Twisted Genius says:

December 30, 2017 at 10:34 pm

I think 2018 will be a good year for Syria. Assad will consolidate his control overall Syrian territory to include the lands east of the Euphrates. The Rojava Kurds will realize their future lies with remaining with Damascus and will turn their backs on the US. I also believe Amman will move closer to Damascus. They will become tired of the Saudi’s silly games.
Russia and China will not join in any side deal with Trump to deal with North Korea. Although they are not happy with a nuclear armed state, they prefer that to a failed state in the region. They will deal with North Korea in their own methodical way. Trump will become tired of all this and preoccupied with Iran and the Mueller investigation.
The Mueller investigation and others will release enough information to corroborate the findings of the “Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent Elections” report. Some members of Trump’s circle may be charged with assisting those activities, wittingly or unwittingly. None of that will invalidate the Trump presidency, just severely damage it. I doubt Trump will be found to be part of it. It’s not in his nature or in his management style.
J says:

December 30, 2017 at 11:24 pm

http://al-sura.com/jordans-king-arrests-brothers-and-cousin-in-suspected-saudi-led-coup/
fanto says:

December 30, 2017 at 11:24 pm

Ms. Merkel will not be able to establish a “stable” government in “reasonable length of time” as constitutionally required, and new elections will be finally become reality. Or – a coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD (christian demo and social demos) without Merkel possibly. If new election is held, FDP (free democrats) will gain again (despite current decline in the polls) and be able to make a coalition with weakened CDU (without Merkel).
The Euro currency will come under pressure, inflation will rapidly increase, and jump far over the 2% which ECB is aiming at. The housing (rent or purchase) has jumped already over 5% this year , (overall, in large metropolitan areas over 10%).
The investigation of MH17 will possibly get more steam.
Jose says:

December 30, 2017 at 11:43 pm

1. 2018 Elections – Dems +-6-10 will make gains, but fall short of taking the house. Reps +3-5 will make gains in the Senate (Scott will defeat Nelson in Florida)
2. Economy will continue to grow and make gains unless their is a war anywhere (Korean, Ukraine or anywhere is the Middle East (Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and I probably missed a couple of potential hot spots..lol)
3. The Mueller investigation will reveal nothing, but the politicization of the FBI and Justice department (payback is going to be a bitch!)
4. Merkel will fail to form a coalition and new elections will be held (it will be a mess)
Happy New Year’s (enjoy your homemade Paellas..lol)
J says:

December 31, 2017 at 12:56 am

Wonder how this one will play out in 2018
Jordan’s King arrests brothers and cousin in suspected Saudi-led coup
http://al-sura.com/jordans-king-arrests-brothers-and-cousin-in-suspected-saudi-led-coup/
J says:

December 31, 2017 at 8:44 am

‘We Won’t Take Part in Occupation’: Dozens of Teens Refuse to Enlist in Israeli Army in Letter to Netanyahu
‘The army is carrying out the government’s racist policy that violates basic human rights,’ 63 teens write to Netanyahu and Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.831626
Patrick Armstrong says:

December 31, 2017 at 8:53 am

I accept the challenge (bearing in mind what that great political scientist Yogi Berra might have said: “It’s hard to predict when you don’t know what’s going to happen”).
USA. The Storm will crest, Russiagate conspiracy will be exposed, people will go to jail or be tied up in court. Trump will continue to Make America Great Again by getting allies to cut entanglements. Huge infrastructure program will bring benefits. Dems will lose in mid-terms (they still have no alternative and the exposure of conspiracy will harm them)
RUSSIA. Putin re-elected but CPRF may do better with its more lively candidate. Western-loved opposition will tank. Russia’s economy will continue to grow and diversify. Russia’s influence in the world ditto. Present course will be maintained.
CHINA. More of the same. Petroyuan will finally appear.
EUROPE. Will continue to split along fissures of north-south, national-globalist with background of soggy economy, un- and under-employment and rising crime caused by That Which Must Not Be Named. (More political parties which dare to name it will appear and rise.) Much talk about various things.
WORLD. Overall, more and more countries will start re-adjusting to a world in which USA/NATO is down and China/Russia/Iran is up. Slow process.
CANADA. Trudeau will not be hailed as the standard-bearer of world liberal values.
J says:

December 31, 2017 at 8:55 am

https://theintercept.com/2017/12/30/facebook-says-it-is-deleting-accounts-at-the-direction-of-the-u-s-and-israeli-governments/
“IN SEPTEMBER OF last year, we noted that Facebook representatives were meeting with the Israeli government to determine which Facebook accounts of Palestinians should be deleted on the ground that they constituted “incitement.” The meetings — called for and presided over by one of the most extremist and authoritarian Israeli officials, pro-settlement Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked — came after Israel threatened Facebook that its failure to voluntarily comply with Israeli deletion orders would result in the enactment of laws requiring Facebook to do so, upon pain of being severely fined or even blocked in the country.
The predictable results of those meetings are now clear and well-documented. Ever since, Facebook has been on a censorship rampage against Palestinian activists who protest the decades-long, illegal Israeli occupation, all directed and determined by Israeli officials. Indeed, Israeli officials have been publicly boasting about how obedient Facebook is when it comes to Israeli censorship orders:”
jld says:

December 31, 2017 at 11:46 am

Probably a tough year for Vlad.
Babak Makkinejad says:

December 31, 2017 at 11:52 am

Iran’s support to Houthis in Yemen will become strategic, if not already. That war will continue.
JamesT says:

December 31, 2017 at 12:15 pm

Trump will be assassinated.
505thPIR says:

December 31, 2017 at 1:34 pm

2018
1. Ukraine situation will not resolve itself. Arming Ukraine will be met with equal or greater “counters” on russian/separatist side.
2. Congress goes to Democrats but, due to years of gerrymandering, not overwhelmingly so. Economy will be cooking and this will further blunt the shift.
3. Mueller investigation: We ain’t seen nothing yet. The crud will fly in all directions.
4. North Korea, situation normal.
5. Assad Stays in power.
6. Yemen fully descends in to the abyss.
7. Israel does not invade Lebanon. Does bomb the hec out of arms shipments they can find transiting through Syria.
8. No conflict with Iran. Protest movement in Iran gets cleaned-up big time.
9. Europe remains much as it is today.
10. There will be at least two rather spectacular terrorist events in Europe.
11. Democratic party remains splintered.
12. “Dreamers” will find some sort of resolution favorable to them.
13. At least 3 mass shootings in US by November.
14. NAFTA in shambles.
15. Lots of good stuff (positive) will happen and go relatively unreported.
The time of “troubles” will be in 2019-20 as lots of economic chickens will come home to roost. hint: 2007 was but a taste of that which is to come.
Jony Kanuck says:

December 31, 2017 at 7:57 pm

Col,
Greetings of the season & best wishes for the new year.
I’m pretty worried about 2018: Global warming will start to bite. EG Rising water in Bangladesh sets millions off in search of dry land. These people are muslims & there are salafi jihadis among them. Neoliberalism is dead in the water, original value is being created nowhere. It’s a FIRE economy; Finance, Insurance, Real Estate. The ‘Washington’ consensus is failing from the inside out. Those aircraft carriers & bases are going to get harder to pay for. I’m expecting war. Trumps cabinet is heading for pure neocon. If the US hits Iran, Hezbollah & Syria will hit Israel; they know who is pulling strings. There’s been a lot of high talk about giving NoKo a ‘bloody nose’. I expect the Koreans to then missile Tokyo. Then watch the stock market crash. It’s one these history things. People start wars thinking they can keep it small & control the pace…
Bobo says:

December 31, 2017 at 8:06 pm

2018
Knowing my Predictions are no better than pulling on a slot machine I can only say we all will be a little more wiser and better educated on the worlds events by participating in the Colonel’s Outpost of Higher Learning while wishing all a Healthy and Prosperous New Year.
Barbara Ann says:

January 1, 2018 at 12:08 pm

Whithersoever this year takes us all, I confidently predict that SST will remain a beacon of light in the darkness, for those of us hoping to better understand the wherefores.
Thank you for 2017 Colonel Lang and Committee, a happy New Year to one and all.
marku52 says:

January 1, 2018 at 5:26 pm

Amen. A thousand thanks to our host.
outthere says:

January 1, 2018 at 6:18 pm

History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, But Echoes
And here is what it is echoing
quote
The second session, on Tuesday afternoon, was worse. This time, Gorbachev took the lead, impressing Reagan’s new national security adviser, Colin Powell, who jotted down, “Bright. Fast. Quick turning radius. Vigorous. Solid. Feisty. Colorful speech . . . tossing off terms like ‘MIRV’ and ‘depressed trajectories’ and the throw weights of SS-12’s 13’s, 18’s and 24’s like a wonk in the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency.”35 Reagan’s response was his familiar maxim: It wasn’t arms that created distrust, but distrust that created armaments. Gorbachev was dissecting domestic Soviet politics (saying he didn’t so much face “political opposition” as opposition in the mind of every Soviet citizen, all of whom were “children of their time”) when Reagan suddenly told a joke: an American scholar on his way to the Soviet Union chatted with two young cabbies who drove him to and from the airports in New York and Moscow. He asked both, who had taken time out from their studies, what they would do when they finished their education. “I haven’t decided yet,” answered the American. “They haven’t told me yet,” was the Soviet cabbie’s response.36
As Reagan finished the story, Powell recalled, “the Americans wanted to disappear under the table, while Gorbachev stared ahead expressionless.” Shultz was disturbed and disappointed; if Gorbachev had been allowed to continue, the discussion “would have been revealing to us and possibly helpful to him.” Shultz nudged the meeting to a close by saying that joint working groups were waiting for instructions. Afterward he dared tell his boss, “That was a disaster. That man is tough. He’s prepared. You can’t just sit there telling jokes.” The unflappable Reagan didn’t seem taken aback. “Well, what do we do now?” he asked.37
endquote
Gorbachev = Putin
Reagan = Trump
but this time there is no George Schultz to comprehend what is going on and get the president back on track
btw, the quote is from Taubman’s book on Gorbachev
Philippe T. says:

January 2, 2018 at 2:41 am

Since none of the 2017 events were predicted neither predictable, I predict that none of 2018 events will be.
turcopolier says:

January 2, 2018 at 10:02 am

PhillipeT
You don’t think we laid it down hard and right on the ME? pl
Jack says:

January 2, 2018 at 2:49 pm

2018 Forecast.
1. Uber will IPO allowing insiders to cash out.
2. Uber IPO will mark the apogee of the current cycle in financial speculation.
3. Fed and other major central banks will continue to reduce liquidity until financial asset markets correct.
4. When financial assets decline by 20% there will be media hysteria and central banks will restart QE in significant scale.
5. GOP will retain their majority in Congress in the mid-terms.
6. Trump will remain POTUS.
7. The Mueller witch hunt investigation will devolve into a farce as no collusion with the Trump campaign and the Russians will be uncovered. However, they’ll find financial irregularities of Trump campaign team members that occurred before the campaign.
8. More leaks into the collusion among Obama administration officials in law enforcement and the IC to manipulate the election and attempts to delegitimize Trump after he won.
8. Putin wins another term.
9. Sessions resigns as calls to appoint special counsel to investigate partisanship at the FBI, DOJ and the IC increase.
10. Assad regains control of all of Syria.
J says:

January 2, 2018 at 8:52 pm

I wonder how many of the ‘deep state’ blokes that attempted/continue to attempt a coup against POTUS Trump, will be prosecuted under the McCarren Internal Security Act in 2018.
With POTUS declaring a state of national emergency [ https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-blocking-property-persons-involved-serious-human-rights-abuse-corruption/ ] that he has recently done, combined with the McCarren Act, sets the stage for a U.S. style prosecution of the Bidnezz Coup of 1933 dejavu.
There is no where on the globe the ‘deep state’ coup plotters can hide to escape the McCarren Act.
Serge says:

January 20, 2018 at 12:31 am

I am obviously very late, and I leave it up to your discretion whether to accept my input at this point, but I remember reading through this and wanting to post whilst on vacation in africa at the turn of the year but being too busy to do so:
-Further economic deterioration across the greater non gulf ME,IMF mediated
-Canonical trump exoneration vis a vis the Russia bullshit, breakdown of mueller investigation as the Clinton-Obama collusion comes to light
-IS all but becomes the only source of “opposition” in syria, just like it successfully supplanted all other groups in Iraq in the late 2000s to become the only source of opposition
-Syrian Government “wins” the symmetrical war,but increasingly becomes bogged down in the assymetrical stage
-Netanyahu’s Israeli political order acts on hezbollah in a last ditch effort to distract from some political scandal/corruption

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Whither 2018?

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