Clinton Adminstration’s First Six Months


Rather than try to hold a War Gaming exercise on the future history of a Hillary Clinton Administration's first six month at home and abroad, I ask those interested to give me their forecasts as comments below. 

This will be followed by a similar exercise concerning a Trump Administration.  pl

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76 Responses to Clinton Adminstration’s First Six Months

  1. Peter Reichard says:

    Liberation of Aleppo and general collapse of Isis and other Syrian rebels presents HRC with a fait accompli and frustrates her intentions of intervention. Economic downturn focuses her attention away from foreign policy. We and the world dodge a bullet.

  2. João Carlos says:

    She will do a preemptive atack to China because that south china sea isles. But that is too my forecast for Trump.
    Yes, welcome to Third War!

  3. Tyler says:

    Civil war.

  4. Degringolade says:

    The first six months of Clinton 2.0 huh?
    I really think that nothing whatsoever will change.
    The last three presidents have been indistinguishable in their attitude concerning the use of force, their kowtowing to the wealthy, their contempt for anything other than “the Elite” (a category that has been shrinking), and their sneering attitudes toward the bulk of the population.
    I wish it wasn’t true, but Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and now Hillary Clinton were/are/will serve the same constituency, carrying the same Neoconservative foreign policy mindset, and the same neoliberal economic weltanschauung.
    What Hillary represents is more of the same. More color revolutions, more internal controls, more wealth disparity.
    She represents the status quo in every way.
    Nothing will change…….

  5. The Beaver says:

    As an outsider , I won’t say much about domestic policy but as far as the foreign policy: Podesta will bring in the bipartisan chicken hawks like Deniis Ross, jeffrey Feltmann, and Victoria Nuland in the cabinet.
    Wait for the “funding” for another uprising in Iran- similar to the Green revolution that went pffffttt , and most probably in Qatar (at the behest of the chihuahua). Also watch out Latin America !!!
    Her first trip overseas will be to Israel though she may spend only 6 hours in Ottawa to follow the custom or may be not!!!

  6. Bill Herschel says:

    Overtly sending American troops to Ukraine and Syria. As completely insane as that may sound, if it is on the to-do list of her backers and would solidify her standing with them, one can easily assume that comes before any other consideration. James Simon contributed $4,000,000 to her campaign. If he wants troops in Ukraine and Syria, there is every reason to believe he will get them. That’s Democracy in action according to the Supreme Court of the United States (Citizens United).

  7. Allen Thomson says:

    Depends on how long her coattails are.
    If she brings along both House and Senate to the Democrats, then restocking the SCOTUS, reshuffling the Cabinet plus augmenting ACA with a public option, plus emigration reform in the direction of a legalization path.
    If just the Senate, then SCOTUS plus Cabinet moves.
    If no coattails, then Cabinet plus executive orders in the Obama pattern. SCOTUS here is an interesting problem, since at least a couple of Justices are unlikely to last until 2020 and a Republican Senate doesn’t seem likely to confirm any Hillary nomination. So a severely diminished bench for years or (gasp!) a White House – Senate deal on somebody?

  8. Domestic front:
    – Continue Obamarism (status quo adjusted marginally for a coalition of groups who commonly oppose the historical socio-political US orientation).
    – Manage fallout from an election framed by both sides (and possibly accurately in many instances) as an apocalyptic struggle. Carl Schmitt distinguished “politics” (first order bickering within shared parameters) with “the political” (fundamental disposition of the political order). Since this election in part has breached that second order question, we could see a permanent decline in the level of political and civil order. I’ll just leave this here:
    Foreign Affairs
    Basic goal is to retrench the Davos Global Empire aka the ‘liberal world order’.
    1. Enforce the Saudi/Israeli ME line of policy fanatically (Fellow harpy hawk Theresa May will help out). Massive support for anti Houthi rebels in Yemen, Kurds in Syria (as the FSA ‘rebels’ make for increasingly convincing propaganda, and they may be greatly declined by the time she takes office).
    2. Incite ‘allies’ in the Pacific against China.
    3. Attempt to tighten flagging EU support for sanctions against Russia. Kiev receives a fresh tranche of war cash under the guise of ‘aid’, enabling renewed attacks in the Donbass with the hope it will drag Russia directly into the conflict. This will serve three goals (a) turn Donbass into a mini Afghanistan for Russia. (b) Distract Russian attention from Syria. (c) Ensure a permanent coldwar, thus preventing rapprochement between Germany and Russia for years.

  9. rakesh says:

    SCOTUS may end up with recess appointments – so neither side will have long term lock
    Foreign entanglements will be reduced only out of domestic imperative, she will need Sanders coalition to govern , economy will need a jolt and that is going to preclude more wars.

  10. gowithit says:

    With Clinton winning the election, Obama will pull his “moderate” SCOTUS nomination. Upon taking office, Clinton will nominate one likely more “progressive”. If Senate goes back into Dem control, the nomination to go thru. If Repubs retain Senate, then 50/50 if she can get it thru–again, the Repubs seen as “Obstructionists”. Biden mentioned this pass weekend that he might seek further “office”. Despite his age,it would not be unlikely for Clinton to consider him for SCOTUS–Repub Senators wud have a difficult time saying “NO!”

  11. robt willmann says:

    To help Hillary get into office, Obama may be working on a public version of an “October Surprise” this year — taking back Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria–
    This will then make easier Hillary’s probable desire to continue to meddle in Iraq and to prevent the Syrian government under Assad from taking all of Syria back. The more U.S. presence in eastern Syria there is, the easier it will be to keep Assad and R+6 from handling that area.
    There was the October Surprise of 1980, engineered by Republicans, to prevent Jimmy Carter from getting the hostages out of Iran before the election of 1980. Robert Parry has done a lot of work on that October event–

  12. eakens says:

    The chance of Biden making it onto the SCOTUS is exactly zero. He does not have the mental capacity for it.

  13. johnf says:

    I’m not sure if Theresa May will follow her.
    It was Cameron and Osborne who were the Blair-ite neo-cons. She is a pragmatist and realist who cautiously does her sums before making any decision. Her Chief of Staff, Nick Timothy, to whom she is very close in both domestic policy (he is a “Tory” of the Joseph Chamberlain/win the working classes with jobs and social services type) and in foreign affairs is an outspoken “realist”, non-interventionist opponent of all neo-connery.
    This is Timothy two months ago:
    ““So if – in addition to the many individual policy, governmental and operational lessons there are to be learned – there is a single, overriding lesson from Iraq, it is surely that we need to rediscover the principles of a traditional, realist, conservative foreign policy. Value stability. Respect sovereignty. Do not make foreign policy part of an ideological crusade. Do not try to recreate the world in your own image. Do not, however much you might disapprove of a dictator’s abuse of human rights, use that as a pretext for regime change. Always act on the basis of the national interest. Above all, understand the risk involved when things change in complex and volatile states.” – May 31.”

  14. Chris Chuba says:

    HRC will do at least one thing to try to cause maximal damage to Putin, 1. to contrast herself from Trump, 2. to get even for the non-existent affront regarding the reset button. I strongly suspect that it will include sending some really bad gear to the Ukrainians and more U.S. trainers.
    The first 6 mo’s is her window of opportunity to destroy Syria, turn it into another Libya, and possibly get us into a conflict with the Russians. If she waits too long, things will be so obviously stable she will have to accept the Russian solution. 80% chance that she will do something really bad, something as little as giving the rebels really good equipment including MANPADS to something as severe as launching cruise missiles. She will make a lot of noise in any case. Keep the Tylenol handy.
    Oddly enough, I think that China will remain a secondary issue. We might continue to cruise around the South China sea but be careful not to go beyond that. She does not have the personal animus hear that she has for Putin and we do too much business with China and we need them to pressure N. Korea.
    Perhaps some other gesture to separate herself from her predecessor like increase aid to Israel or as someone else suggested, go psycho on the Yemeni’s to mollify the Saudi’s. Her soul is dark, I don’t think the harm being done to civilians there for no reason bothers her in the least.
    She will do something aggressive to try to get some street creds, at least this is how I think her mind works. She probably would favor more indirect, aggressive covert means, heavy arming of 3rd parties.

  15. Interesting. That’s some good context.
    I’d append this point though. We’ve heard these overtures before. Obama was supposed to be about peace and stability…but in many ways he’s been worse than Bush.
    When push comes to shove, will she stand by those principles? I don’t trust those sentiments coming from anyone other than a real outsider candidate, like Trump.

  16. gowithit says:

    Since when is “mental capacity” a requirement? The Repubs gave the Court Thomas! lol

  17. steveg says:

    First six months? As was said by most in RVN
    “Same Same Water Buffalo” An apt description
    of the “occupant” if nothing else.

  18. morongobill says:

    Yeah, who will he plagiarize once in the robes?

  19. Edward Amame says:

    First thing will be filling Scalia’s seat on the SCOTUS.
    Clinton’s gonna try to find common ground with the other side. That’s her style. There might be some kind of attempt at a big crime bill, and/or infrastructure.
    There might even be a public option trial balloon as health insurance industry consolidation has given them more power than the medical industry likes and it’s hit hospitals’ bottom lines and forced them to consolidate too. The medical industrial complex may not be so averse anymore to having the public option provide needed health insurance competition.
    FP will be mostly more of the same for first six months.

  20. Edward Amame says:

    I think she’ll try to nominate someone that the GOP leadership isn’t going to object to. She will try to work with the other side, which is I suspect is why Sanders’ supporters don’t trust her.

  21. PeterHug says:

    Disagree with possibility of Biden on SC – although Obama certainly would be a possible nomination (I rather think that’s not something he would want, though).
    But if Clinton wins, expect several openings on the SC as a number of the current Justices take the opportunity to leave…particularly if the Democrats take control of the Senate.

  22. different clue says:

    I believe some Senators recently discovered the trick of sending one lone Senator into the Senate, gavelling it “into” session, spending five minutes determining that he/she was the only Senator in the Chamber, and gavelling the Senate back “out” of session again. That way, no recess is declared and no recess appointments are possible.

  23. VietnamVet says:

    Hillary Clinton in the first six months will purge any Realists left in the Senior Executive Service. Establish a no fly zone over Kurdistan. Continue Austerity. Arm Ukraine and the Baltic States. Strengthen the hybrid war against the Kremlin. Let Turkey fall apart. Continue to do nothing about climate change or health care. Kiss the toes of Bibi Netanyahu.

  24. Eric Newhill says:

    Clinton will suffer a massive physical and mental health crisis (possibly fatal) and Kaine will become POTUS. This is not a conspiracy theory based prediction. It is, rather, based on my assessment of how she looks and acts currently and the trend over the past few years.
    What will Kaine do? I don’t know, but I sense he will tread cautiously as he won’t really have a mandate from The People – and I think he is middle of the road kinda guy anyhow.

  25. Swami says:

    My prediction for her first six months?
    + Heads explode on the right. That is, those heads that have not already exploded when she wins in November.
    + Based on his vow from Obama’s first term, McConnell affirms he will do everything to make her a one-term President. Perhaps he’ll have better luck this time.
    + Republicans will likely hold on to the House, so I think there will be at least 6 futile votes to repeal Obamacare
    + McConnell and Ryan try to walk back their shameful support of Trump, a man who cannot respect the valor of people in the military or the sacrifice of military families
    + Two Supreme Court Justices announce their retirement, and replacements are confirmed by a Democratic Senate (I’m assuming Merrick Garland will be confirmed post-election in Obama’s term)
    + Clinton tries to improve the lives of ordinary people but is blocked by Republicans in Congress, which lays the foundation for the destruction of their Party

  26. Babak Makkinejad says:

    This seems to be the only option left:

  27. Sam Peralta says:

    Hillary political appointments from cabinet to agency positions will clearly demonstrate a payback to her major donors. The neocons, R2P and warhawks will dominate the foreign policy, DoD and intelligence positions. Wall St will dominate the economic and financial positions. Domestic policy positions will be dominated by government interventionists and Social Justice Warriors.
    In FP, to establish that a woman POTUS can be a strong C-in-C, Hillary will attempt to create situations to demonstrate shock & awe and military action. She will demand many photo-ops with military personnel and equipment in combat environments. Ukraine will once again become “hot” within the first 6 months with arms, funding and encouragement to the Banderistas to resume the conflict with the East. Other destabilizations on the border with Russia will be encouraged. NATO will get a new lease of life. A new aggressive posture will be created in frontline states in Eastern Europe like Poland & the Baltics by setting up theater missile defense and US ground forces. Western Europe will be wrapped back into an aggressive cold war framework with the girls showing up in many photo-ops(HRC, Merkel & May). Ramping back up regime change in Syria will be another directive. It will begin with more covert activities like sending in more sophisticated weapons, advisors and getting Jordan back in the game. Next, the destabilization of Lebanon and kicking Hezbollah in the teeth campaign will be launched. Saudi and Israel will play an active role in all these activities in the ME. She will play footsie with China in the first 6 months.
    In the domestic arena, the current status quo of increased financialization and Wall St speculation with taxpayer backstops will be enhanced. The elements of Dodd-Frank and other regulatory schemes to restrain speculative activity will be attempted to be removed. A SCOTUS nominee who is a LGBT type will be nominated. EPA will get a “super greenie”, while Hillary will demand we must do something NOW to reverse climate change. Following Bloomberg’s call, she will start a War on Obesity & Soda. She will instruct her AG that every case of a shooting of a minority by police must be investigated and prosecuted. She will follow Bernie’s call to forgive student debt & increase college education subsidies. Of course any private institution that issued student loans will get all their money & interest paid by taxpayers. And she will also launch a War on Guns to reduce & restrict gun ownership and usage.
    The GOP will retain the House but lose the Senate.

  28. Lars says:

    I agree with Mr. Thomson and it all depends on how large the victory is. One major difference with Mr. Obama is that HRC will not expect anything from the GOP and will act accordingly unless the GOP is seriously diminished in Congress.
    Then she will be able to divide and conquer.
    I think immigration reform is probably highest on her agenda.

  29. walrus says:

    1. Push trade deals including TPP, etc.
    2. Welch on Iran deal.
    3. Destabilize Syria any way possible.
    4. Supply lethal offensive weaponry to Ukraine.
    5. Confront China in the South China sea, probably by means of a “coalition of the willing” – Japan, Australia and Korea.
    6. Increase NATO provocative posture towards Russia.
    7. Give Israel everything it wants.
    8 Increase military involvement in Africa.
    1. Vengeance on enemies.
    2. Pathway for illegals to become democrat voters.
    3. Prepare social security for rape by Wall Street.
    4.Lay. foundations for Chelsea’s political coronation.
    5. Amass personal wealth.
    6. Vengeance on enemies

  30. SoCal Rhino says:

    I see the rollout of a series of very small impact proposals aimed at demonstrating she is fighting for the little people, a jump at the first opportunity to show she’s as tough as Cheney, and a stealth attempt to privatize social security, perhaps as part of the next iteration of TARP.

  31. NotTimothyGeithner says:

    Biden was chairman of the judiciary during Thomas’ confirmation hearings. Biden didn’t let Thomas’ other accusers testify, and amazingly enough, Thomas made it through a Democratic controlled Senate.

  32. NotTimothyGeithner says:

    Congress is out of session briefly between the new and old Congress when the President could make recess appointments. That appointment would last until the next recess. Even now, I’m pretty certain Obama could fill the vacancy to that period which demonstrates “nine” isn’t a sacred number.

  33. Matthew says:

    Lars: Why does the US immigration system need to be reformed? This is a serious question.
    When people say “reform,” they mean “amnesty.”

  34. Freudenschade says:

    1. SCOTUS
    2. Gun control
    3. Immigration
    4. Minimum wage
    1. Cuba
    2. Wrap up Syria and Ukraine
    3. Pivot to Asia
    4. Turkey?
    IMHO Nuland will not be SoS, as she doesn’t fit with an Asia focus. But we could see women at both State and Defense.

  35. steveg says:

    What do you mean by “Welch”

  36. turcopolier says:

    So, you think she will have both houses of Congress. pl

  37. Freudenschade says:

    Senate, not house. She will attempt to push these things through as they cut against the GOP politically in 2018. Of the 4, only SCOTUS and immigration have a shot.

  38. Tyler says:

    Thomas is one hundred times the jurist that Sotomayor is.

  39. Tyler says:

    You might want to ask the media who’s shoe horning it into that prism so they can drag HRC across the finish line.

  40. jdledell says:

    I really do not see Clinton doing anything aggressive on either the domestic or foreign side. I see her as essentially a cautious politician. Syria is slowly but surely coming to it’s end game, and the same with Iraq. I see today that U.S planes are attacking again in Libya, that is a worry that she will try to go all in there.
    I don’t see her doing much of anything about the Ukraine, except quietly accepting the status quo. Frankly, I see her continuing the Obama foreign policy ie do a little meddling here and there but no big moves. I do not see her doing anything on the Iran deal – in Israel the screams about it have almost completely died down except for Bibi who wants to overturn it because it represents a personal failure.
    Domestically, she will try to get several SC Justices names. If the Democrats regain the Senate she will nominate liberal justices, if not, more Garland types. I think she will promote domestic initiatives like incremental improvements in Obamacare as well as pushing for tax reform. I think Clinton is more concerned with her legacy as the first woman President and will be cautious because she needs to win a second term to truly be a barrier breaker.

  41. Bill Herschel says:

    I think a strong case can be made that they are both sociopaths. “We came, we saw, he died,” is the statement of a sociopath. Trump’s business career littered with the bodies of those he has cheated is the history of a sociopath.

  42. Bill Herschel says:

    Interesting. Why does it sound so plausible.

  43. Hank Foresman says:

    We will have 4 or 8 years of the Republicans stonewalling; and 4 or 8 years of the Democrats hollering it is wrong. End result the people will be fed up and say a pox on both of your houses.

  44. FB Ali says:

    I’m a little surprised that no one has mentioned the attitude of the military command to foreign ‘adventures’ as a factor that may well affect her decisions.
    Doesn’t it matter? (Gen Dempsey is credited with stopping some Obama misadventures).
    And, if it does, what is the likely attitude of the top brass?

  45. ex-PFC Chuck says:

    But don’t expect any Hilary nominees to be any further to the left than Anthony Kennedy, if that. Hilary is NOT a New Deal Democrat. Since the Democratic Leadership Council alumni took control of the party about 1990, the Democratic Party’s modus operandi has been to pose as if they were the inheritors of the New Deal legacy as advocating for the economic interests of the lower four quintiles, all the while undoing its accomplishments in that regard. Thus their support for SCOTUS nominees such as Thomas and Kennedy and limp opposition to Roberts and Alito. To summarize bluntly, the Democratic Party’s modus operandi for the past quarter century has been built on fraud. Hilary is just dropping the pretense.

  46. Brunswick says:

    The Republican’s are blocking confirmation of Garland “claiming” that The Voter’s should decide.
    Rumour is if the polling is good in October, Obama will pull Garland’s nomination saying that The Voter’s should decide.
    Hoist, meet petard.

  47. Lefty says:

    HRC will have us in a war somewhere. Her neocon fanaticism requires it.
    In addition to all the earnest issues Bill and his SS detail will get busted partying with the coeds in Georgetown.
    The House is a big stretch. It’s a lot of seats to switch. Most are thoroughly gerrymandered and not nearly close enough to be in play. The Dems took a congressional redistricting bath after the ’10 census and Obama’s neglect.

  48. Herb says:

    I don’t think either house of Congress will change sides, therefore she would be limited to what can be accomplished with a GOP House and Senate that, while hostile, will be chastened, divided, and wanting to move forward after the Trump disaster. Trump’s defeat (should it happen) is going to create a tsunami change in the Republican party. I believe the most likely piece of work she focuses on is secondary education financial reform. I think this is something to which people in the GOP would be receptive. The status quo on that front is hurting America and American business. She had a history of bipartisan work in the Senate, and that seems to be her way of operating.
    Unlike others, I don’t see a big appetite right now for enhanced foreign adventures.
    On SC appointments, it depends how the GOP handles the process.

  49. Freudenschade says:

    Those are the important questions: senate control? House control? Who is in the cabinet?
    With Clinton we have some clues on the cabinet. With Trump, I’m not sure we know who will be in the cabinet, or exactly how the administration will be run (if the “VP will run domestic and foreign policy” stories are to be believed).

  50. steve says:

    No way the Dems take back the House. Surprised if they even take back the Senate. Therefore I just don’t see her doing very much at all. I expect at least one more opening on SCOTUS and I expect that plus the current seat will remain unfilled.

  51. Fred says:

    Launches an attempt to “bring back our girls” with a significant number of troops committed to fight Boko Haram in Nigeria. Bill Clinton gives speech on human rights in Abuja after major “gift” to CGI. These are in no way connected.
    Commits troops to support of one faction in Libya to “provide stability”.
    Gives speeches supporting Angela Merkel’s continued immigration policies.
    Commits to forward deployment of troops in Poland, Latvia and Estonia. Stations carrier group in the Baltic.
    Turkey – agrees to revoke the green card of Fethullah Gulen causing him to seek asylum in Canada.
    Russia – Demands “Putin” stop the support of rebels in Donbass and to the “barrel bomber” Assad (provided the R+6 hasn’t crushed ISIS in Syria by January 20th).
    Asia: continues escalation with China over their activities in the South China Sea. Instructs USN to make repeated right of passage voyages through China’s self proclaimed economic exclusion zone.
    Domestically: Nominates judge Goodwin Liu to USSC. Calls for a new “assault” weapons ban after first shooting incident.
    Submits a bill granting a “path to citizenship” for illegals already present in the US. Commits the US to accept 250,000 “refugees”. Signs new “modified” TPP agreement. proposes the College and University bail out bill (free college for all!).
    Other domestic anecdotes. Debbie Wasserman Shultz loses reelection bid. Barack and Michelle named to the board of the CGI. Prominent members of BLM are given positions within the Clinton Administration to improve “diversity”.

  52. kao_hsien_chih says:

    The most likely outcome after this election, even with a Clinton victory, will feature a Republican House and a Democratic Senate.
    First contentious order of business will be filling Scalia’s seat on the Supreme Court. Since the filibuster for judicial appointments is (and possibly, filibuster in general) is effectively dead, we will see a Clinton appointee to the Supreme Court being pushed through with the barest majority, almost certainly with the invocation of the cloture by a bare majority even for Supreme Court nominees being made official.
    Beyond this, probably not a whole lot on the domestic front. Republicans in the House will try to hold some hearing or that as soon as the Clinton administration comes into office. Whether they will have much merit, who knows? But whatever they are, they will be dismissed as partisan follies by all the “serious people,” and, the truth be told, probably would be designed only to score partisan points rather than dig up the truth. But the gridlock will ensure that nothing useful will be done.
    On the foreign front, I suspect that the stance towards Syria, in particular, will become more overtly pro-interventionist. I am curious where Turkey is headed, in this context, and what the Clinton response would be, for each possible contingency. The alignment between US and Japan, possibly with various SE Asians joining in, will become even closer, but what form this will take I cannot speculate. I do not believe Clinton administration will be able to attempt anything else “obvious” over the first 6 months, though. Domestic politics will be messy and the political scores HRC can score abroad will be limited.

  53. Mark Kolmar says:

    Republicans are likely to keep the House. Democrats are unlikely to have enough majority in the Senate to act on large initiatives, not in the first six months.
    One or two Supreme Court justices leave. The Senate is unable to confirm replacements during this time.
    Having watched her since the Clintons came into the national arena, Hillary Clinton’s broadest guiding principle looks like incremental pragmatism funneled through wholesale customer service, with all of the practiced mush and malleability. Hillary Clinton brings the hazards of too many of the best intentions at once. This will reflect in a muddled public message about the administration’s priorities.
    She would come into office without a strong mandate, and she would be likely to face a deadlocked congress on most major issues. Possibly, criminal justice reform package could begin to take shape in the first six months.
    Foreign policy would continue along the much the same line, while Clinton may take some actions such as drone strikes, arms sales, or humanitarian support of some kind where Obama was more restrained or reluctant.

  54. turcopolier says:

    A number of you chose to go completely OT and discuss Trump in this thread and I have deleted your comments. pl

  55. turcopolier says:

    FB Ali
    IMO Obama has now stacked the JCS and major commands with Keitel types who will not resist anything. pl

  56. LondonBob says:

    Her track record shows her to be anything but cautious, Obama was the break on her more crazy foreign policy stances. I think Syria would be the place to watch with increased support for the rebels, although no no fly zone. The main ME project to be the creation of a Kurdish state carved out of Syria, Iraq and Iran. The position of Turkey being the main question mark there. A step up in the hybrid war against Russia under the control of Michele Flournoy and Victoria Nuland, focusing upon information war, economic war and attempts to restart the conflict in the Donbass.
    Ultimately I expect a HRC Presidency would accelerate US decline through increased immigration, accelerated economic weakness and splits with allies. I would anticipate some form of further social and political instability with increasing crime, police shootings and terrorist attacks, perhaps along the lines of the last years of the apartheid state in South Africa. There is very little appetite in Europe for further ME and EE adventures and I expect an increased move towards an independent European stance engaged with Russia and China.

  57. Amir says:

    She (as she had already demonstrated in the past: will increase her support for Saudi’s attack on Yemen. In particular she instructs her subordinates to sets up a clandestine corridor, with the help of Al Saud, to bring over material and DAESH men to invade Yemen’s heartland.

  58. Amir says:

    There is one difference however, she has and XX while the other three had XY chromosomes. That is obviously a world shattering improvement, especially for people on the receiving end of it.

  59. Amir says:

    I think you assertion that a Defeatoria Nuland will attempt to instigate a color revolution in Iran is spot on. At least the other side is convinced that this will be the case. My projection will be that if Clinton comes to power, there is ZERO chance of improvement in diplomatic relations with Iran and a GREAT chance of a hot conflict and obviously a certainty that at the least the Cold Confrontation will continue.

  60. Amir says:

    She is going to talk the talk of citizenship pathway and continue in expelling more illegal immigrants while at the same time destabilizing Central and probably South America, thus insuring more influx of those destitute human beings. The net effect is going to be that the total number of illegals will increase in USA.
    In regards to her healthcare “reform”: under guise of Public Option, she will syphon off more government money (meaning our taxes) to private interest groups (insurance companies and hospital conglomerates) without any oversight about the return on investment. In other words, continuation of capitalism for plebs and socialism for the elite.

  61. Amir says:

    Let’s hope so but the accumulation of Neo-lib-cons around her does not bode well.

  62. Lars says:

    The obvious answer is that the current system does not work very well and has not for quite some time. We also have about 11 million people living here who are in legal limbo. That will require a pragmatic solution. Of course that will require putting ideological concerns aside and arrive at a comprehensive end. Without resorting to useless labels.

  63. Babak Makkinejad says:

    ” Do not try to recreate the world in your own image”…
    They did exactly that and they failed miserably and now they have found religion.

  64. Bandolero says:

    I believe POTUS HRC will in her first six months announce a shift in foreign policy to strengthen alliances with “traditional US allies” in ME, namely Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and to confront “evil dictators” for the sake of promoting human rights, first of all Assad, Khamenei and Putin.
    The most important change will be that POTUS HRC orders her SecDef Michèle Flournoy to unilaterally change the deconflictation agreement with Russia in Syria. Clinton will order the US military to target “Assad forces” and “Iranian terrorist assets like Hezbollah” to break sieges imposed on rebel held territories and thereby “prevent genocide” in Syria. To improve relations with Turkey, POTUS HRC will demand from the US-backed SDF/YPG that they split from Russia and the PKK and subordinate themselves to the command of the FSA and the Saudi-backed High Negotiation Committe. From Turkey POTUS HRC will demand in exchange for her help in relieving Turkeys pain with the PKK that Turkey stops supporting “terrorist Hamas.”
    POTUS HRC will also threaten to shoot down Russian planes over Syria should Russia “continue to attack moderate US-backed” jihadis.
    Regarding Iraq HRC will order the US military to strenghten Barzani and the KRG to simoultanously confront IS and Iranian influence in Iraq. POTUS HRC will order the CIA to covertly fund and arm “Sunni tribal forces” in Anbar and Nineveh to help them liberating themselves from IS and resist the supremacy of Iranian backed militias.
    Regarding Yemen POTUS HRC will order the US military to share target intelligence with the Saudis and to assist the Saudis in trying to bomb Houthi/Saleh forces into submission.
    Regarding Ukraine POTUS HRC will order to better finance the government and to deliver more military aid to the government of Ukraine so it will be better able to confront Russia and Novorossia militias in Donbass.
    At the end of her first months POTUS HRC will be “shocked” – truely shocked – that Shia militias in Iraq restart targeting and killing US forces in Iraq, in what they say to be retaliation for POTUS HRC bombing of resistance forces in Syria. POTUS HRC will be confronted with the difficult decision to have US troops leaving Iraq or greatly increasing their numbers to levels similar to the “surge” under GWB. But POTUS HRC withers and does give neither order. While POTUS HRC hopes to be able to sit it out, more and more US forces are being killed in Iraq in retaliation for US bombings of Syrian government forces and their allies. A similar bad surprise POTUS HRC gets from the SDF/YPG who, instead of braking with Russia and the PKK, announce to enhance cooperation with Russia and break with the US, thus turning from proxy to enemy. POTUS HRC therefore orders the US military to help Turkey confronting the “traitorous” YPG. Putin is not impressed with POTUS HRCs threats and orders the Russian forces to speed up destroying US-backed terrorists in Syria, and enhanced military help to the forces of Novorossiya. Khamenei orders voluntary mobilization for Syria to counter POTUS HRCs increased efforts to oust Assad.
    In result, war theaters in both Syria and Iraq get hotter than ever before in the first six months of HRC being POTUS. Neither side seems to be close to victory. However, both the US and Russian forces in Syria largely target each others proxy forces, but still narrowly avoid to shoot on each other directly.

  65. michael brenner says:

    Agreed. For 3 reasons: dominant interests will remain dominant; Republican control of obstructionist Congress; abroad – she’ll continue to fulminate pointlessly about Russia, and in the Middle East has no more clue what to do than has Obama

  66. Generalfeldmarschall von Hindenburg says:

    HRC will push for the TTIP, but with some cosmetic wording about ‘worker safety’ as a sop to those she reluctantly changed her earlier full throated support to win over.
    Surrounded by people like Breedlove, Flournoy, Nuland and now William Kristol and that crew, HRC’s administration will become an even seedier and more corrupt incarnation of the Bush II regime. New Democrats can never be tough enough of ‘defense’ and we might have to buckle on our safety belts if aggressive meddling in eastern Europe or the Near East runs afoul of Russia. I can see an incident in Syria in which US and Russian commandos get into a firefight and markets tank with the expectation of the End of the World.

  67. LJ says:

    Walrus (Get revenge on enemies): Pencil that one in.
    Chris Chuba on causing maximal pain to Putin and street creds: that one’s penciled in too.
    There are rumors (naturally) of an offensive against the Donbass starting August 10-12. Yawn. Except that could well provide the perfect wedge issue against Trump who wants to make nice with the RF. “The Russians are coming.”
    Does she have the kind of network that could order Poroshenko to in turn order the attack. My guess? Absolutely. She’s in the club now. Remember “the Aspens are all connected.” (From Scooter Libby to Judith Miller.

  68. bth says:

    Hillary wins though third party candidates score 15% of vote.
    All contested House, Senate and Governorships go Republican. Republican majority in Congress widens.
    Hillary proposes Obama for Supreme Court. After great debate he is approved.
    Budget and tax crisis in April 2017 since Congress did not fund war supplemental to full term. Budget crisis hits and lasts for 3 months in 2017.
    Major legislative initiatives die, then are revisited with very narrow focus after Bill Clinton meets with McConnell. Narrow wins begin to pile up. $12.50 minimum wage. Opioid addiction legislation passes. Worker retraining. Infrastructure programs get funding.
    Personal relations between Hillary and Erdogan start bad and end worse. Turkey opts to withdraw from Nato.
    North Korea challenges Hillary right away followed by China shoot down of Japanese drones over contested territory. Trade deals are DOA. Chinese communist party steps up crackdown on human rights advocates. The US responds to new cyber attacks by breaking down the great firewall of china.
    Castro brothers pass away. Few outside Cuba notice.
    US begins regime change intervention in Venezuela.
    US agrees to move F16 and F18A production lines to India.
    Assange is arrested and extradited.
    Boeing commercial airline deal with Iran is approved though relations remain poor.
    Italian banking system collapses. Southern Europe goes into recession.
    Oil prices drift to mid $30s. US introduces oil import tax with funds used for domestic renewable energy production. Pipeline deal within the US approved in a political master deal.
    Attorney general carries over from Obama to Clinton administration.
    US leaves Syria pretty much alone with exception of continued support for the Kurds. Russia, Assad and Iran secure western Syria but fail to make major inroads into IS eastern territories.
    Iraq government with intense US support recaptures all IS held cities and towns in 2017 but Sadr starts making good on promise to attack US troops as he realizes that US airbases are more than temporary. Rural Sunni land remains IS controlled and convoy ambushes return. Iraqi government does not fund reconstruction in formal IS areas.
    Pelosi retires. Ryan loses seat.

  69. crf says:

    I predict nothing will happen foreign policy-wise for at least a year into Clinton’s term. Foreign policy has been nothing but a source of public discontent for most Presidents. Clinton is not stupid, and she will grasp that lesson. Foreign policy is where Obama went to wallow after his domestic agenda largely petered out in 2010.
    Clinton is also ruthless. The Republicans are very likely to be demoralized, divided, and defenestrating anyone associated with Trump. Clinton is going to provoke political fights with the Republicans at the earliest opportunity. If the Democrats control the Senate, she will work to kill the filibuster at the earliest opportunity, even if the Democrats do not control the house.

  70. I find it both unfortunate and fortunate that Degringolade’s prediction of SSDD is most likely correct. Unfortunate in that not much will be solved unless external conditions force our political system to come up with a solution. Kicking the can down the road and vigorous blocking of all Legislative and Executive initiatives will remain the norm. Fortunate that our system of checks and balances remains intact and will also stymie the worst and craziest of and Legislative and Executive initiatives. Any change will be incremental, especially in the first six months.
    The Republican Party, which will continue to control the House, will double down on it’s policy of eight years ago to do everything in it’s power to see that the new Democratic President will fail in everything she tries to do. If this enforced governmental sclerosis keeps us from waltzing into a major war, that’s fine with me.

  71. Aristonicus says:

    welchverb [ I ] uk ​ /weltʃ/ /welʃ/ us ​ /weltʃ/ /welʃ/ also welsh informal disapproving

    to avoid doing something you have promised to do, especially not to pay a debt:
    He’s never welched on a debt – he always pays up.

  72. rjj says:

    “Fortunate that our system of checks and balances remains intact and will also stymie the worst and craziest of and Legislative and Executive initiatives.”
    If you doing that distance viewing thing again, you may want to double check your time coordinates.

  73. steve says:

    While the basically similar policies of Bubba, Dubya, and Obama will be continued as the status-quo under Clinton, the economic lot of the American public will continue to deteriorate, as it has for at least the past 25 years.
    At some point, whether it occurs under Clinton or a subsequent president, the breaking point will be reached where the status-quo will no lonbger be capable of papering over our economic, social, and cultural disasters.

  74. Herb says:

    I agree with much of this outlook, primarily on foreign policy.
    Clinton more than a pragmatist. She is not even really a leader, except in the sense of she knows how to ride a wave she hasn’t created. Unlike her husband or Obama, she doesn’t work by calling forth a wave, by creating a movement in others. Instead, she listens to what others want to do, and puts herself in the position to steer in front of and direct it. I believe she listened to Sanders (and Trump voters) and saw there was significant opposition to foreign trade treaties. She then changed her position (which she only had in the first place because it was Obama’s baby). Same thing with college tuition. Same with minimum wage. Same with opiate addiction. She didn’t come up with these ideas, others did.
    Granted, these all fall in with her existing, very liberal internal compass. Her biggest supporter is Al Franken. That should be instructive.
    And the same thing is going to happen on foreign policy. The public is tired of war. Tired of foreign entanglements. This is from Trump voters as well as Sanders voters. She will be extremely cautious. But again, her internal compass is R2P, it is also very pro-Israel. That goes back to Rwanda and to being senator from New York. I’m not sure how Netanyahu has affected the Israel calculus, but regarding R2P, she will look for applications, but she is a very cautious, calculating, and ruthless person.
    All that said, she is in many ways also too cautious. Paranoid. Prone to parsing and dodging and “leaving options open”. Therefore, I think she will be indecisive in some situations and other leaders (both internal and external to the US) will capitalize on that trait. It sounds like she is also a “pleaser” as in, the last person who sees her, wins.
    These attributes are why her presidency will likely be a pragmatic one, but also, a reactive one. What she is able to accomplish is going to be directly related to the composition of the House and Senate. More so with her presidency than any other in the last 50 years.

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