“‘With rising vaccination rates and the fact we’ve injected about a third of the country, that is enough protected immunity. If you look at the counties in New York and New Jersey that had greater than 45% prevalence, meaning more than 45% of the population was infected going into the winter, they really didn’t have much of a winter surge.
‘Once you get to about 40% of the population with some sort of protected immunity — you don’t have herd immunity because it will continue to transfer, but it will transfer at a much slower rate,’ Gottlieb explained.
‘I think we’ll have the spring and the summer to work this out. I don’t think we’ll ever reach total herd immunity. Hopefully we will vaccinate the older population to protect them from dying from this, but this will continue to spread.’
Gottlieb also said he believed this fall might be the right time for school children to also receive the vaccination.
‘I think it is possible this vaccine gets moved into the high school population in the fall. We have seen the spread more in the high schools than the elementary schools. There is less risk in the grade-school-aged children. I don’t believe this vaccine will get moved to 12-and-under into the fall.” Daily Mail
Comment: There is a lot of political whining just now comparing the present number of US COVID-19 deaths to the number of dead in our wars. IMO a more apt comparison is to the number of US dead in the Spanish Influenza epidemic of 1918-19. The US then had a population of around 105 million and it is thought that 500,000 to 800,000 died. A comparable death rate today would kill between 1,600,000 and 2,000,000. We are not anywhere near that level of devastation as yet and the tide of the disease is receding due to a variety of factors; the vaccines, good health practices, the emergence of herd immunity. This seems to make possible a belief that the end of the tunnel is approaching for everyone but Fauci. pl
When the numbers and data are all sorted out, in due time with due transparency, I suspect we will learn “covid” never even came; let alone “left us”.
All “covid” advantage accrued to Democrats during a critical election year. But compared to the seasonal flu season and all cause death numbers, “covid” itself remains an uncorroborated phantom.
However, I suspect any real data will be buried, accruing one more Democrat-deep state “covid” advantage. Nothing changes the nations willingness to blindly trust, but not verify. Not sure there is even a critical mass left in this county with the capacity to question and verify. Those that do question, quickly get “canceled”.
It has been a battle for the soul of our nation. But when does fear and hysteria exploitation lead to good outcomes. I am reminded of a 1000 year new world order promise that crumbled in less than a decade.
Fauci wants another year of obedience training,
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/02/21/covid-news-90-000-more-us-deaths-forecast-worlds-herd-immunity/4528683001/
and we see the court has decided they represent a conquered people after all:
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2021/02/22/unbelievable-scotus-refuses-to-hear-pa-election-challenge-after-previously-granting-injunction/#more-208112
Can’t wait for the gloating and the “vote harder” 2022 mid-terms commentary.
Lower the PCR cycle rate and presto! “cases” fall. The Biden miracle they call it.
https://covidcalltohumanity.org/who-lowers-cycle-thresholds-for-pcr-tests/
Agree, Patrick. The tests were always highly unreliable, as were the diagnostic criteria and cause of death determinations.
“Lower the PCR cycle rate ….”
Science! which they should have gotten correct the first time.
With regards to fatalities – Comparisons to the Spanish flu – or any flu – are not really appropriate because the flu kills young and old alike; albeit always with a skew toward the elderly. Covid is very peculiar in that it primarily seems to be a final medical straw for the very elderly and/or infirm only. For that reason, I don’t even know how much the herd immunity concept really applies. If someone who is very elderly and/or infirm gets a good dose of the bug, they’ll probably die and, thus, there is one less vulnerable person. There is a limited supply of low hanging fruit for this reaper to harvest. Or, in other words, this is not a very lethal virus for the overwhelming majority of us. There are only so many potential fatalities rating to happen and, once they are dead, we have what amounts to just another flu passing through society. True, there will be new elderly and infirm at risk each year, but now we have, hopefully, learned how to protect them and they won’t die in greater numbers than a usual flu season. At that point we can do what we should have in the first place; protect the vulnerable and otherwise live our lives as normal.
With regard to cases – I’m with Patrick Armstrong. The PCR tests are garbage and yield too many false positives. Also most people who contract covid are asymptomatic to very mildly ill. So fewer tests = fewer cases = less noise to worry about if the vulnerable are protected in their special environment. That said, I’m pretty sure many more than 28 million Americans have contracted the virus in the past 12 months. *If* herd immunity is truly a thing, then, yes, we should be just about there.
That’s not so peculiar if assume that ‘Covid-19’ is really just the flue re-branded. It’s nearly always the critically ill and the elderly who die of the flu, isn’t it?
SO, if Covid presents a lower death rate compared to the Spanish Flu, THEN, to those of us who believe Covid deaths have been exaggerated (that too many non-Covid deaths have been wrongly attributed to the virus) the comparable death rate disparity would be even greater. Importantly, I wonder if enough people feel there’s been a serious lack of honesty and perspective in dealing with the current virus?
How will people react IF, after a return to normalcy, another pandemic is declared and an attempt to impose austere measures occurs? Will the vast majority of people be as willing to submit again? Will those (much less others) who’ve suffered marginalization, censure and worse for bucking the establishment have the courage to do so again?
I fear the ability to control – to the extent the Covid threat has presented – has emboldened authority figures, has given them a taste of power they never experienced before. Will skeptics and the masses be inclined and able to push back if and when unwarranted draconian measures are imposed again?
great article from a couple days ago 0n this very subject: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/02/20/normality-will-never-return-know-lockdown-will-not-repeated/
with which i completely agree. ‘lockdown’ has to go. permanently…
Fauci enjoys living in his invertebrate tunnel of fear where it is warm, dark and damp.
In lieu of wearing two masks Fauci (etal) can continue on with his head buried up his fear-mongering arse.
The swamp and their state/local camp followers (99% Democrat) shut down the economy for a year, destroyed thousands of businesses and wiped out at least a year of education for millions of kids – for 500,00 deaths, the vast majority being persons over 60.
And how many were ACTUALLY covid-19 deaths?
The 500,000 is not a small number until you consider the context.
The US population is 330,000,000
500, 000 is .015% of that population.
600,000 die from cancer and 655,000 die from heart disease per YEAR.
We are in week 50 of the 2 week shutdown to “flatten the curve.”
Ponder that.
From Patrick Armstrong’s article link:
“Last January 20, 2021, the World Health Organization (WHO) has finally released its January 13 notice..”
As was noted here at the time, the manufactured menace was de-manufactured the moment the job was done. The PCR tests were inaccurate enough to render all data based on them garbage. The graph above is meaningless and as Eric says, it is likely a far greater percentage of the population has probably has had this thing and didn’t even know it.
We will now be permitted to feel safe – until another imaginary hobgoblin is politically useful. This has been a test run of “trust the science” trumping political decision-making – Fauci being exhibit A. I despair at the flocks of mindless sheep who cannot see they have been transparently manipulated. I agree with akaPatience, the sheer effectiveness of the scamdemic in population control will ensure our would be technocrat overlords employ similar tactics again. Perhaps the “climate crisis” will be next canard.
We are through the looking glass and it is time to wake up.
Gottlieb has experimental vaccines. They are completely untested, apart from the numerous adverse reactions we are now seeing, with much worse to come, apparently. And he sees nothing wrong in administering them to children, to whom COVID poses no threat whatsoever. Physician, heal thyself.
Eric, I don’t think the latter part of this statement stands up to the available data:
“Comparisons to the Spanish flu – or any flu – are not really appropriate because the flu kills young and old alike; albeit always with a skew toward the elderly. Covid is very peculiar in that it primarily seems to be a final medical straw for the very elderly and/or infirm only.”
I looked at CDC influenza data for the 2017-2018 season. It listed 34,157 as the total deaths, 8,602 deaths 65 years old and under and 25,555 over 65. For COVID-19 deaths from 1 Feb 2020 to 6 Feb 2021, it has 443,107 total with 83,151 deaths 65 and under and 359,956 over 65. That roughly 25% flu deaths under 65 compared to 20% COVID deaths under 65. They both skew to the old, but the difference is not that remarkable. The young are not immune to COVID-19 and we still don’t understand the long term cardio-vascular, pulmonary and neurological effects of even non-symptomatic infections.
Here’s the data I looked at:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1127698/influenza-us-deaths-by-age-group/#statisticContainer
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/
TTG,
It’s funny. As we get older older our definition of young follows us. I was thinking about children and young adults ( to age 30). Fatalities in that group are far lower than a bad flu season.
I thought the 2017-18 influenza killed around 68k – 82K. Those are the figures in my mind. Regardless, the problem with the flu figures is that the flu is not a CDC mandatory reporting disease. So cause of death is usually whatever is more immediate; respiratory failure, pneumonia, dehydration, that kind of thing. Covid, on the other hand, is mandatory reporting. So while the more immediate cause of death is on the record, the underlying cause – Covid – is reported and tallied up for public reporting. You have to do some clinical based extrapolations of the data to get to something like a fair comparison. I haven’t done that. Maybe someone has?
Yes, our definition of young definitely changes over time. At least I didn’t embarrass myself by extending the cut off to my age. I do remember from a year ago reading about how the CDC estimates flu cases and deaths. They only use a sampling of hospitals and extrapolate from there and only distinguish between influenza alone and influenza and pneumonia. Pretty squishy.
Even with a younger cut off the death rates for flu and COVID generally track. This one chart (different from the two above) uses CDC figures and shows lower death rates for flu at younger ages than for COVID. Of course COVID deaths sky rocket for us geezers as generally acknowledged.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rate-us-compared-to-flu-by-age-2020-6
Dunno, TTG. This is outside anything I do professionally. It’s more epidemiology. We’re on equal footing with regards to trying to figure it out.
But I’m going to stick with the two points I do know from my work until someone gives me a compelling reason to move my position.
1. I’m not seeing any kind of statistically significant increase in deaths or hospitalizations in 2020 for symptoms that are either coded as covid or could be reasonably extrapolated to be the result of covid infection. That’s a sample of close to 15 million covered lives across the country. That doesn’t mean that there’s no such thing as covid. It just means that covid appears to be a minor issue for people that purchase insurance (i.e. seem to be a health issue more for the Medicaid population and I have no access to Medicaid data).
2. “Flu” isn’t usually recorded as a cause of death. An infant has a high fever, becomes encephalitic and dies. Another infant has fever, vomiting, diarrhea and dies. It’s unlikely that either death will be attributed to the flu (influenza). However, if the infant tests positive for covid, it is chalked up as a covid death. Even if no test is performed and the doctor feels like is was covid, then covid it is. So I don’t see how a fair comparison between covid and flu mortality can be made.
TTG,
Just to back up what I’m saying……
Nothing has changed since the below release. We’re making more money than we’re allowed to by law.
The expensive covid hospitalizations just aren’t there. Nor are the deaths. True, the decline in elective surgeries (and some not so elective surgeries and treatments) and office visits is driving the unprecedented profits, but there is simply no covid to offset those savings.
https://www.propublica.org/article/health-insurers-to-investors-were-good-health-insurers-to-lawmakers-please-help
I would argue that COVID-19 is part of a puzzle. Thanks to the virus, Donald J Trump was not reelected. Is this a conspiracy or incompetence? The Blob sure wanted him gone. NATO reinforced the Syrian and Iraqi occupations right after Inauguration.
The pandemic is real but the response was incompetent. The case numbers are declining likely due to lower number of PCR test cycles. But the three waves that crashed across America killing half a million to date was preventable if good public health policies had been adopted from the get-go like New Zealand and Australia.
The good news is the weekly average of daily deaths in the USA is starting to decline too; especially, if the effect of the vaccines is kicking in and adverse long term effects continue not to pop up. The bad news is corporate media can’t be trusted. A fellow Texas Vet got a $16,847 electric bill due to the freeze automatically deducted from his bank account. He was suckered. Deregulation and privatization does that to the little people. But the media ignores the corporate/state scam that is the cause of the disruptions.
VietnamVet,
“He was suckered.”
Was he suckered by Clinton, who was President when the big push for utility degregulation and restructuring started, or GW Bush, who was in office when California’s self inflicted electricity market mess was the scandal dejour? Was you buddy suckered all those yeares the metering worked in his favor, or just this time when it didn’t?
“the corporate/state scam that is the cause of the disruptions.”
Please let us know how the corporate/state managed to cause the grid to go down.
Come on, with fewer than 20% of the population vaccinated, and more than half of those too recent to be effective, how can the decline in “cases” be due to the vaccine to any significant degree? Add to that the fact that they do not even claim that the vaccine prevents infection, merely that it prevents hospitalization and death.
Politico has a lengthy report on signs dating back to 2018 about possible danger from the Wuhan Institute on Virology:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/03/08/josh-rogin-chaos-under-heaven-wuhan-lab-book-excerpt-474322
From the article:
In late 2017, top health and science officials at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing attended a conference in the Chinese capital. There, they saw a presentation on a new study put out by a group of Chinese scientists, including several from the Wuhan lab, in conjunction with the U.S. National Institutes of Health.
…
These researchers, the American officials learned, had found a population of bats from caves in Yunnan province that gave them insight into how SARS coronaviruses originated and spread. The researchers boasted that they may have found the cave where the original SARS coronavirus originated. But all the U.S. diplomats cared about was that these scientists had discovered three new viruses that had a unique characteristic: they contained a “spike protein” that was particularly good at grabbing on to a specific receptor in human lung cells known as an ACE2 receptor. That means the viruses were potentially very dangerous for humans—and that these viruses were now in a lab with which they, the U.S. diplomats, were largely unfamiliar.
…
The diplomats wrote two cables to Washington reporting on their visits to the Wuhan lab. More should be done to help the lab meet top safety standards, they said, and they urged Washington to get on it. They also warned that the WIV researchers had found new bat coronaviruses could easily infect human cells, and which used the same cellular route that had been used by the original SARS coronavirus.
…
Any theory of the pandemic’s origins had to account for the fact that the outbreak of the novel coronavirus—or, by its official name, SARS-CoV-2—first appeared in Wuhan, on the doorstep of the lab that possessed one of the world’s largest collections of bat coronaviruses …