IMO the SAA and friends are well past the culminating point of their drive into Idlib Province and vulnerable to a major reverse if things do not continue to go well, but fortune often favors the brave … A reverse could take the form of a counter-attack against the now very long "roots" (supply lines) of the spearheads fighting NW of Abu Duhur especially in the context of protracted fighting at rapidly stiffening defenses around the crossroads at Saraqib when SAA reaches that location.
But, pilgrims, fortune DOES favor the brave and a crushing defeat of HTS and collapse of jihadi resistance in the province could be accomplished if:
1. The SAA advances to Saraqib and then engages just sufficiently to fix the defending jihadi forces in position.
2. The SAA does not immediately divert scarce forces to the relief of the two besieged Shia villages just north of Idlib City. These places will be uncovered and will fall to government forces of their own weight if the major effort in Idlib Province is successful.
3. The main effort should now be made by a Tiger Force led column that wheels to the right to roll up jihadi forces from south to the north as they currently face government forces to the south of Aleppo City. This movement would turn jihadi forces out of their positions and enable a general government advance into Idlib Province from existing positions in Aleppo Province south of Aleppo City. pl
https://southfront.org/map-update-military-situation-in-eastern-idlib-and-southern-aleppo/
pl,
The thought occurred to me this morning that the various jihadis are distracted and overextended by the Turkish effort to take Afrin and their participation in that effort. Perhaps, as you say, a bold move may prove profitable.
PL
I think the idea may look tempting but as drawn on that map it’s misleading.
From what I remember as having seen from the area it would mean the Syrian army tries to advance through the low ground while the jihadis have the high ground on the sideline.
As I see it to advance much further the Syrian army needs to take the high grounds first. And that is first and foremost Al Eis – where the infamous Turkish military convoi tried heading to a couple of days ago. As I remember videos from about a year ago when the Syrian army had that territory for a short time, the view from that hill is phantastic, one can look straight to Saraqib and almost to Idlib city.
I also suspect the view from the hills east of and close to Saraqib is almost as good though I haven’t seen any videos showing that view on camera.
So I think taking at least one of these high grounds is a must before going forward much further on the low ground in the middle, but better it would be to cover the flanks with high ground from both sides.
Bandolero
IMO the SAA can run up the low ground between the higher ground on the right and the M5 and turn the jihadis out of their positions. pl
>http://uawire.org/usa-allocates-350-000-for-an-independent-investigation-of-the-chemical-attack-in-syria
Seems the campaign in Idlib is going too well for Israel/America’s liking. The WH is said to be “considering all the options” once more in response to another manufactured event.
As for the Turks, this opportunity for the SAA may well be a result of the deals between Ankara and Moscow that gave the Turks the green light to go into Afrin after the Russians departed. As long as the Russians have abandoned the Kurds, it is likely that Turkey has agreed to cede Idlib and its jihadis that don’t go over to join the fight in Afrin to the regime.
Meanwhile, in the bidding war between Russia and the US over Turkish affections, it remains to be seen whether the US really intends to stay in Manbij and whether, however unlikely, the Turks would try to fire at US forces. Now, it is also the “lady or the tiger” moment. Does the US continue its plans for control in eastern Syria with the YPD in the lead or give up and give in to the Turks. Half measures likely won’t please anyone.
One analyst described the confusion and battling announcements from the White House and the Pentagon as a war between the neocons and traditional imperialists for control of US Mid East policy. The former are sympathetic to the Israeli desire to see a pro-Western, pro-Israeli independent Kurdistan in some or all of states where they live, to include Turkey.
Others claim that Israel is debating another “preemptive” war against Hezbollah in Lebanon [and perhaps in Syria] on the grounds that all the Shia forces surrounding them now are a threat they simply cannot allow. And who is to stop them if they go forward? Seems the Russians are not willing to get into it with Israel militarily and might even see it as a way to get the Iranians and their proteges out of the area. There are serious costs for that, given the Eurasian orientation of both countries for the future.
Reporting from the ground says that the Takfiri defense lines in east Idleb are thin. The folks usually manning them are busy cutting off the breasts of female YPG fighter in Afrin (video link available on request).
The lack of Takfiri ground forces was the reason why the Turks tried to establish a blocking position at Al Eis. That as prevented by (a) the Syrian army and (b) by an IED attack from some Takfiris who dislike the Turkish control of their fate.
If I were the Tigers I would immediately go for Al Eis and maybe even to Saraqib while the weather is good for air support and the enemy lines still thin. The weather is predicted to change in a week or so and will then hamper any movement.
b
We are agreed on the scheme of maneuver. IMO the drive north up the valley to al-Eis and beyond should have priority of forces and fires. As for the jihadis, they should not be treated as prisoners of war. pl
Those of them that were captured in Mosul, were tortured and executed. But I surmised that more than half of the ISIS fighters in Mosul, out of estimated 40,000 souls, are at large.
US with Turkey, US with Pakistan, US with Saudi Arabia are like a Muslim man with 3 unruly wives; he cannot afford to pay the Mahr to them, and they are loath to become divorced and breft of his protection and prestige. In the meantime, the comely Bethsheba , his true love, keeps on stringing him along and milking him for all his worth.
Like playing the gas card?
‘b’ in #7 above is correct. Much of the residue of al-Nusra and ISIS are now part of Turkish 2nd Corps attacking Afrin. There are Yezidi villages in Afrin, so the Daeshi slave auctions may well be re-established soon.
b
I think taking the hill of Al Eis head on could prove costly for the SAA. It’s an extremely good position for a defender and likely very heavily fortified.
Instead I’ld expect a different move from the Tigers: just move the front of Abu Dhuhur in a broad campaign further to west just to the east of Saraqib. It would mean taking an area like this next:
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.801108&lon=36.916809&z=10&m=b&gz=0;367890930;356327443;1318359;0;0;1705909;1208496;2907880;2293395;3274786;1414489;33484
It would mean going a bit uphill, but the reward would be getting high ground. And the area is hardly, if at all fortified, because the jihadis never thought to see the Syrian army there again.
I think the result of taking that unfortified high ground would be devastating for the jihadis. They would be left with a lot of low ground while the SAA has the high ground above them. And the Syrian army would have various options to move further forward.
After taking that high ground I’ld expect the army not to take Saraqib, but move into Idlib plain and encircle Al Eis a bit from different axes before taking it. In a third move then I’ld expect the army to unblock Fuah and Kafriya and integrate these villages into the new frontline.
Col,
I’m with b: Why get bombed by the sukhois & run over by SAA tanks when you can “alahu akbar, lets go and kill us some kurdish non-believers”. The Kurds have few heavy weapons but uncle Erdo has F16s, Leapord 2s & 155 & 204mm artillery! Did I mention the gunships; seems all the breakthroughs come from them. If the Kurds attack, it’s at night now. Uncle Erdo has probably also promised the ‘FSA’ a house and wife for each. Erdos been saying that he is going to restore ‘Syrians’ to Afrin. So, yeah, Takifiri lines have to be very thin in Idlib.
Taking this further: The SAA needs to get some units ready to go into Afrin. Erdo wants to take the place over but I’ve seen stuff that indicates his military would be happy with SAA on the border. The Israelis are getting very antsy, Lieberman was ranting yesterday that the IDF will come charging up into Lebanon if the balloon goes up. If Hizbollah rockets Tel Aviv seriously, it will probably be mostly over for Israel. Everyone who can get out, will. The IDF has told the cabinet that and at first they were just met with stunned silence. Also Bibi may have beat the first two corruption charges but the big German subs bribery case is yet to come. Meanwhile there are demonstrations in Tel Aviv every day against his corruption.
jody kanuck
I guess like a lot of people here you cannot or will not read a map. The subject of my piece was the R+6 offensive against Idlib Province. The Turkish/FSA attack on Afrin is completely separate. pl
GeneO
Evidently, you too are allergic to maps. pl
I just don’t like maps where white (fields/open) areas are larger than 2x2km.. any map that is half white is showing terrain to be avoided from my infantry POW…
Kidding aside, a video is out showing Erdogans jihadists standing around a dead female kurdish fighter they have just cut the breasts off… one is saying “let’s get another one”.
By his company you know the man …
Honestly, I see only a few scenarios where SAA could be defeated here.
Direct intervention against SAA by a foreign military (meaning Turkey, USA or Israel), which of course would stop the current advances in its tracks while SAA repositions, or is blasted to pieces by enemy bombs depending on the situation. New allegations of chemical weapons use could be used, but I’m not sure the new ones could be enough to convince anyone.
Other than that, the only highly risky way for SAA to be beaten back by Idlib rebels would be, imho, to push another thin salient towards Saraqeb and then straight to Shia enclaves or Idlib. SAA used to do this and got beaten up quite often, but it looks like it’s learned its lessons, and the Abu Duhur push has shown it using variations on pincer moves and pocket-making. As long as SAA relies on pocket-making, flanking and advancing wider fronts, and avoid relying on salients thin enough to be cut off, leaving the spearhead isolated for good, I’d expect them to withstand anything the rebels can throw at them at this point. As proposed, creating a pocket between Abu Duhur and Al-Eis would fit very well.
But then, I’m not a military and my military non-expertise relies mostly on reading Caesar and Thucydides…
Gas attacks are Trumps red line.
He won’t be fooled again or will he?
Leith Fadel of Al Masdar made a couple of interesting remarks a couple of days ago, regarding the Turkish column that was escorted by HTS towards al-Eis :
https://twitter.com/leithfadel/status/958325714947895296
“Sounds like a deal is in the works. This could end the SAA’s operations to lift the siege on Fouaa and Kafraya”
https://twitter.com/leithfadel/status/958328326799659009
“Also, no truth to the report claiming the Syrian Army attacked the Turkish military in southern Aleppo”
The one thing that has been established by Op. Olive Branch is that when the Turks whistle, the non-daesh jihadis, including HTS in large part, come trotting like well-trained dogs. But does anyone know what Erdogan’s bottom line is in Syria (apart from no large PKK quasi state)?
Yes, the Syrian Army and their allies are making significant military gains in Idlib Governorate.
Is this due in part because the Turkish backed “Syrian rebels” are being used to attack Afrin, Syria?
As to the ‘character’ of these fighters, @jenanmoussa posted two tweets:
@jenanmoussa What a video this….Turkish backed Syrian rebels outside #Afrin, singing a jihadi song about “how we were steadfast in Grozny & Dagestan. And we took Tora Bora. And now Afrin is calling for us.” https://twitter.com/jenanmoussa/status/959090266056679424 pic.twitter.com/gmFb1gKvFO
@jenanmoussa There’s also another video going viral which is too graphic to share. But I’ll try to describe it.
Basically Syrian rebels near Afrin killed a Kurdish female fighter, took off her clothes, chopped off her breasts, stepped on her body &discussed whether she was beautiful or not.
https://twitter.com/jenanmoussa/status/959151218680631297
In the meantime, due to the ongoing fighting in Syria, are we about to witness another humanitarian crisis?
UN’s Jan Egeland: The last time humanitarian relief was permitted to enter a besieged area in Syria was on Nov. 28. Since then, Assad’s government has banned every single aid delivery to besieged areas that we have tried to organize. Full press conference: http://webtv.un.org/meetings-events/conferencessummits/un-alliance-of-civilizations-5th-global-forum-27-28-february-2013-vienna/watch/jan-egeland-special-advisor-to-special-envoy-for-syria-media-stakeout-geneva-1-febuary-2018/5721314930001/?term=&lan=english
John Frank
My impression is that the FSA jihadis fighting alongside the Turks in Afrin are not from Idlib. They were brought into Afrin with the Turkish Army from southern Turkey. No? pl
There is an uncanny correlation between SAA military successes and sudden and unverified media reports of chemical weapons use by the Assad government.
I have seen reports of atrocities against pregnant women in Persian papers; in obscure places – by Iranians who were present at the scene.
Chris
IMO we should expect a poorly staged “chemical attack.” Mattis is an obsessive old man who has forgotten much. pl
SouthFront is claiming Idlib defenses have collapsed.
Syrian War Report – February 2, 2018: Militants’ Defense Collapsed In Eastern Idlib
http://thesaker.is/syrian-war-report-february-2-2018-militants-defense-collapsed-in-eastern-idlib/
Apparently some of the resistance are claiming Syria used chlorine bombs on them, so, yes, the chemical attacks claims are being raised.
Bandolero,
Wikimapia looks like a great tool. But as far as I am concerned you left a technical trap open.
“Why America’s Bad Choices Can Lead to a Shooting War with Turkey in Syria,” by FEDERICO PIERACCINI
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/02/01/why-america-bad-choices-can-lead-shooting-war-with-turkey-in-syria.html
BBC reporting downing of Russian Su25 over Idlib.
Claims that HTS/AQ responsible. Unconfirmed reports on Twitter that the pilot was executed at the site by HTS. I have my doubts about this as he would be more valuable alive than died.
Much gloating from likes of Lister & Horovitch and other neo-cons. How quickly some forget 9/11. They are truly loathsome creatures.
Col,
Yes it does seem we are heading that way. Will Trump be hoodwinked again or say no? My guess he will buy it. The problem is he would really heavy strike this time. The next few days will be interesting.
No report yet on the weapon system used to bring down that Sukhoi. There has been speculation that it may have been a MANPAADS. But there was video yesterday of near misses by AAA. Possibly ZU-23, although HTS (formerly al-Nusra Front) is known to have captured some old 57mm guns.
That is my impression as well. However, I have read reports suggesting that the Turks have diverted resources which could have been used to thwart the Syrian Arab Army advances in Idlib, hence my question.