IMO the SAA and friends are well past the culminating point of their drive into Idlib Province and vulnerable to a major reverse if things do not continue to go well, but fortune often favors the brave … A reverse could take the form of a counter-attack against the now very long "roots" (supply lines) of the spearheads fighting NW of Abu Duhur especially in the context of protracted fighting at rapidly stiffening defenses around the crossroads at Saraqib when SAA reaches that location.
But, pilgrims, fortune DOES favor the brave and a crushing defeat of HTS and collapse of jihadi resistance in the province could be accomplished if:
1. The SAA advances to Saraqib and then engages just sufficiently to fix the defending jihadi forces in position.
2. The SAA does not immediately divert scarce forces to the relief of the two besieged Shia villages just north of Idlib City. These places will be uncovered and will fall to government forces of their own weight if the major effort in Idlib Province is successful.
3. The main effort should now be made by a Tiger Force led column that wheels to the right to roll up jihadi forces from south to the north as they currently face government forces to the south of Aleppo City. This movement would turn jihadi forces out of their positions and enable a general government advance into Idlib Province from existing positions in Aleppo Province south of Aleppo City. pl