Milton rapidly strengthened in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and was forecast to become a Category 5 storm on a path toward Florida, threatening a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and setting the stage for potential mass evacuations less than two weeks after a catastrophic Hurricane Helene swamped the coastline. A hurricane warning was issued for parts of Mexico’s Yucatan state, and much of Florida’s west coast was under hurricane and storm surge watches. Florida’s Lake Okeechobee, which often floods during intense storms, was also under a hurricane watch. “This is the real deal here with Milton,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said at a news conference. “If you want to take on Mother Nature, she wins 100% of the time.”
Milton was a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph (250 kph) Monday morning over the southern Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said. It was forecast to become a Category 5 storm later Monday with winds greater than 157 mph (250 kph) and become a large hurricane over the eastern Gulf.
Its center could come ashore Wednesday in the Tampa Bay area, and it could remain a hurricane as it moves across central Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean. That would largely spare other states ravaged by Helene, which killed at least 230 people on its path from Florida to the Appalachian Mountains. Forecasters warned of a possible 8- to 12-foot storm surge (2.4 to 3.6 meters) in Tampa Bay and said flash and river flooding could result from 5 to 10 inches (13 to 25 centimeters) of rain in mainland Florida and the Keys, with as much as 15 inches (38 centimeters) in places.
The Tampa Bay area is still cleaning up extensive damage from Helene and its powerful surge. Twelve people perished, with the worst damage along a 20-mile (32-kilometer) string of barrier islands from St. Petersburg to Clearwater. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Monday that it was imperative that messes from Helene be cleared ahead of Milton’s arrival so they don’t become dangerous flying projectiles. More than 300 vehicles picked up debris Sunday but encountered a locked landfill gate when they tried to drop it off. State troopers used a rope tied to a pickup truck and busted it open, DeSantis said. “We don’t have time for bureaucracy and red tape,” DeSantis said. “We have to get the job done.”
About 7 million people were urged to evacuate Florida in 2017 as Hurricane Irma bore down. The exodus jammed freeways, led to long lines at gas stations and left evacuees in some cases vowing never to evacuate again.
https://apnews.com/article/hurricane-milton-helene-florida-557c5c512135e0a8661b298e45e17c92
Comment: I’m sure Fred, Lars and Harper are acutely aware of this. I was shocked when I opened my laptop this morning and saw Milton was already a Cat 4. Now it’s a Cat 5 and it still has a lot of hot Gulf water to traverse before Milton will hit Saint Petersburg, Orlando and the Space Coast. Lake Okeechobee and Everglades flooding will likely be severe.
Two Cat 5 hurricanes in close succession in the Gulf of Mexico. That’s unusual to say the least. We can discuss how this happened, what caused this unusual weather pattern later. Right now, it is imperative for Fred, Lars, Harper and so many others in Florida to grab your loved ones, including pets, and even your neighbors and seek safety. If you’re advised to un-ass the AO, un-ass the AO. I’ll be thinking of you.
TTG
I just finished strapping down the fence and we are pretty much prepared. My biggest problem is a daughter who moved here from NYC and has never been in a storm of this magnitude and is not taking it as seriously as she should, so it will be a teaching moment. Since we bought the house 7 years ago, I have upgraded quite a bit and I think it will take up to 200 mph. Regarding Milton it official forecast is that we will have 80 mph winds and 8-12 inches of rain. I am a little dubious that it will slow down from Cat 5 to Cat 3 before making landfall. The ground from Sarasota to here is very flat too. Of course, the storm looks to interrupt my sleep on Wednesday night and if we lose power, as expected, I have to go outside to start the generator and switch off the grid. It has been 7 years since the last time, so I guess that is not too bad.
Lars,
did you strain yourself with that suntan lotion last week struggling to survive Helene?
BTW why do you need a generator if you went solar? Oh, right, you went solar.
Helene was a non-event for me, since I was out of town. And most people know that solar panels do not produce in the dark. However, if we do not have power during the day and the sun shines, as it frequently does after a storm, then they will add power to my generator.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Milton
Samuel Johnson praised him for having the power of ‘displaying the vast, illuminating the splendid, enforcing the awful, darkening the gloomy and aggravating the dreadful.’
Samuel Johnson was a hoot.
Here’s hoping it’s more Hurricane Milton Berle than Hurricane John Milton. Safe passage, heroes. 🇺🇸
F&L,
Let’s hope it’s not like Milton Waddams, either. “I’m going to burn this place to the ground.”
I hope not.
Off topic TTG
https://t.me/rian_ru/264311
At least 4 powerful explosions were heard in the sky over Tel Aviv, presumably, air defense was activated, a RIA Novosti correspondent reports. Air raid sirens are sounding in the city and central Israel
——
https://t.me/infantmilitario/138370
Explosions in Isfahan
(At link above a very brief vid of explosive pops in a dark night sky. Not much help).
Godspeed.
https://packaged-media.redd.it/vfhqavzyu4td1/pb/m2-res_480p.mp4?m=DASHPlaylist.mpd&v=1&e=1728352800&s=1ead9e722f6ea840e306732c8bdd6ca88460682c
Maybe it is named after Milton Friedman. After all, the names are all first names. Mainly.
Lars,
Stay safe/be prepared. Our prayers are with you.
Thank you. I am doing all I can to mitigate the effects of the hurricane and I am glad that I live on the east coast. Tampa Bay will be a hell hole by Thursday.
Humor. Might as well get a chuckle out of it, what else can one do? Buy SCUBA gear, I suppose.
https://www.threads.net/@rlightjr/post/DAziEKHNCVb?xmt=AQGz0yYuGZ2ldsquC03qUotbkOyXhc56zYrP2DbWgOYNcCs
Hurricane Megaton
Hurricane Kiloton
Hurricane Milton
Does the Mil in Milton stand for something we often discuss?
There are a host of hillbilly schizos on X who are sure Milton is engineered by the Pentagon. They say it’s part of a lithium ore landgrab orchestrated by the satanic globalists etc.
“Me miserable! Which way shall I fly
Infinite wrath and infinite despair?
Which way I fly is hell; myself am hell”
-John Milton.
Mark Logan
We found an unusual question this morning. I am not permitted to say how or from who. Here it is:
Students, please answer yes or no and feel free to leave a brief summary of your reasoning, or otherwise admit you flipped a coin or copied from the person in the next row.
Q: In your considered opinion, do you think that our esteemed Vice President, Kamala Harris …. has ever …
Ducked the Sick?
Miami Herald is saying that it’s possible for Milton to top out at 195mph.
Stay safe all.
As the Houston TX area has experienced over the past few yrs, and now 6 states in the SE with Helena visiting, hurricanes are now holding significantly more water causing heavier flooding over wider areas. This due to hotter air temps holding more H2O
Deniers can’t fool Mother Nature
I’ve lived in La and TX through dozens of storms spanning half a century. The real deniers are those acting like these storms are on the rise when it’s par for the course.
The only thing on the rise is building near the coast and building structures that are not designed to be built in storm prone areas.
I recall after Katrina within a couple weeks most of the French Quarter was either open or close to it. This was because the Quarter is almost entirely brick, some of it going back to the 1700’s like this place:
https://www.napoleonhouse.com/history/
The biggest problem is not these massive storms. It’s the massive building of things incapable of withstanding them.
Well, yes, which is why Florida will empty out…over time and rising tides. Fewer people in Florida until the land no longer is there. Where are all those building materials going to go as the ocean reclaims the land?
I have lived in FL since 1967 and the climate today is quite different today and hurricanes are stronger and warmer water is making them so. No doubt there are more people here now, so the damage is greater. But the changed climate has changed not only storms, but temps and precipitation in general too. When I was young, we had hurricane parties. That would be suicidal today if you are near the coast. But both trends are contributing to the recent massive destruction. A long time ago, I lived in Asheville, NC and hurricane damage was not part of the conversation. From now on, it will be.
Lars,
You missed the 1963 hurricane season? Did they revise that yet, or 1935 too? I’m sure some more executive Bruce power will help.
The real solution is – Yankee go home! Illegals too. Climate change we can believe in, as Barack would say.
AL,
It’s not the worst hurricane ever. It’s the worst in a long time. Meaning a hundred years ago +/- there were equally or even more severe storms.
Learn statistics; and not just the basics. Learn about how to think about and calculate the odds of rare events (like cat 5 hurricanes hitting a specific area). I find that all liberals are ignorant concerning advanced statistics – that and understanding complex systems, which is a reason why they believe in foolish things and magical solutions that never work.
Eric Newhill,
I thought that most of the folks at Google were liberal?
Also – the real meaning of liberal is ‘you do you boo’. Most leftists these days are illiberal in that they want to impose their will on everyone, while conservatives are like “if you want to get a sex change operation fine but stay away from my family”. Conservatives are the new liberals.
I consider myself to be a genuine liberal because I dislike snowflakes and I think you conservatives have a lot of good points. I’ve become a big fan of Tucker Carlson. And I have a math degree from a good university.
James,
Liberals don’t want to force women to carry an unwanted pregnancy to birth or stay in an abusive marriage. Conservatives do. Liberals won’t force anyone into a gay marriage, force anyone to march in a gay pride parade or force anyone to get a sex change operation. Conservatives want to ban all that. If both agreed to mind their own damned business, an awful lot of problems would disappear in this country, not all, but a lot.
TTG,
That’s a bunch of BS. “Liberals” seek to take children from their parents and give them sex change procedures if the parents object. Liberals want to expose children to transvestite story hour and that sort of thing. Liberals absolutely demand adherence to their irresponsible and, frankly, satanic, soul illness. Liberals want to abolish pedophilia laws. Children are not normally allowed to enter into contracts or make other life altering decisions, but liberals see them as malleable targets for instilling values (or lack thereof) to bring about the end goal of Sodom and Gomora, which, to their evil minds, is utopia. What would your Jesuits say about coaching children into sex change procedures or about Sodom and Gomora?
Liberals like socialism and pass laws that force us ever closer to it. Where has that ever ended well?
Liberals run the public education system and force children to adhere to ever lower standards and become ignorant morons, especially compared to other civilized nations.
And who has an unwanted pregnancy these days? Birth control is readily available, as is the “morning after pill”. Turns out it’s Blacks, for the most part. So nice bit of racist genocide going on there. Mass illegal migration also harms Blacks in several key ways. But hey, liberals get a peon to rake their yard and wash the windows.
I am unaware that the typical MAGA type wants to prohibit divorce. Where do you get these straw men?
Eric Newhill,
How common do you think these sex change surgeries are? Those surgeries did triple from 2016 to 2020 with a total of 48,000 such surgeries in that period. The number peaked in 2019 and dropped in 2020 due to Covid restrictions. Most of those surgeries are breast reductions in 19 to 30 year old born females and paid for through private insurance. Surgery to remove genitalia is extremely uncommon, especially among minors, and most of the time it’s an intersex person (born with both or ambiguous genitals) choosing a gender. That’s usually done soon after birth. The rate of such surgeries among those under 18 is on the order of 0.003% and that includes the gender dysphoria cases. There’s no danger of sending your child to school in the morning and having him/her come how with a changed gender. That is unless you live in Trump’s dystopian mind.
The only person I know who wants to abolish pedophilia laws is Alan Dershowitz, a former Democrat but now a committed Trump supporter. Neither liberals nor conservatives want pedophilia laws abolished. I don’t know about committed libertarians.
As for the Catholic Church, they are dead set against gay marriage, abortion, divorce, and the death penalty, but they demand mercy and compassion for gays, the divorced. They also demand mercy and compassion for the poor and oppressed. That includes immigrants, legal and illegal. Even the Old Testament says that.
TTG,
Conservatives want to ban people from being forced into gay marriages? Of course they do. Is not using tax monies for elective surgery a ban on the surgery?
Which conservative wants to force women to stay in an abusive marriage? And did you hear what the catholic church says about abortion?
TTG,
Agreed.
James,
Good point. I am also liberal in the original sense of the word, which also applied to the founders of the country.
I think the federal government has grown into a monster. The founders would be horrified. They’d wonder why we haven’t utilized the 2A to deal with it as they intended. Unlike the feds, I don’t want to control anyone either. Furthermore, unlike like the bleeding hearts and progressives I don’t want to coddle those who are doing their thing when it’s a failing thing.
Perhaps you should have majored in argumentation and logic.
James,
I think you may’ve confused conservative & libertarian. in the Deep South (kinda like the Deep State, but w/ Giant Chips on Shoulders… Lost Cause & all that rot), we’re all about banning books & bitching about legally importing humans that do the jobs corporate overlords won’t pay a living wage for. then there’s the holly roller industry (& now, w/ Mega-Churches!). it’s a hot mess.
my parents met on a FL beach a few yrs after WWII. my brother was born there. I was 4 on my first visit. FL from the late ’50s to the early ’80s was great fun – I still visit regularly.
current conditions are such that locals are seeking new lives in the small city midwest. some of us have seen it coming. {one reason hurricane death rates are lower than in the past, while the storms are trending bigger – data! & plenty of studies by folk who do stats & have lotsa letters behind their names.} godspeed to those departing, hope for safe survival for those remaining.}
TTG,
$140 million spent of gender reassignment procedures for minors since 2020. Around 3,600 minors with surgeries and another 4,000 or so with hormone treatments. Yes, the figures would no doubt be higher if not for covid. Your boy, Walz, runs a state in which adults – like school personnel – who become aware of minors exploring transgender options, by law, do not have to inform parents of what is occurring. Children who want transgender procedures with parents objecting, can be taken from the parents. California is going down the same path.
The Catholic Church is against that kind of crazy evil stuff? You don’t think the church knows right from wrong? Perhaps it is no longer relevant, being replaced by weirdo technocrats and their latest disgusting and wrong fad? At some point you have to pick a side – or just stop caring.
Eric Newhill,
Evers did not sign a bill that would have outlawed gender affirming surgeries and all gender affirming care for minors including hormone treatments. From that you extrapolate that Wisconsin is taking minors away from their parents to conduct gender reassignment procedures? Pure Trump world hysteria. Such surgeries performed on minors are almost all breast reductions. There are many times more breast augmentation surgeries performed on minor girls. Yet there’s no effort to outlaw that gender affirming procedure.
I personally don’t think either should be done to minors.There are probably some rare cases when it might be advisable based on medical and parental consultation and approval so I do not support outlawing any of those procedures. For adults wanting such procedures, it’s just none of my damned business.
The Catholic Church is generally against body mutilation, but is surprisingly okay with breast reductions, piercings and tattoos.
TTG,
The Wisconsin and CA laws keep life changing decision making away from parents and do leave room for failure to go along with it on the parents’ part to be consider abuse/denial of care, which can lead to interventions including the state taking the child from the parents. Sorry, that is a fact.
Now, on the topic of hysteria, you tell me how many women have bled to death in their cars because a hospital interprets state law as placing the needed care under the category of “abortion”. Kamala and Walz keep repeating that scary story like it is a fate awaiting millions. I think the number is just about 0.
I’ve been following the relied effort. Lots of volunteers doing their best to help fellow Americans while the government works against them. Those poor people in the path of Milton are doomed. FEMA would rather use aid money and other resources for illegal aliens and subsidizing “legal”migrants for sweatshop labor in places like Springfield and Charleroi that tax paying Americans. Same as the feds screwed the Americans impacted by the Hawaii fire.
We’re on our own. The illegals have replaced us.
Eric Newhill,
You’re just spouting more Trumpist falsehoods.
“These claims are completely false,” a U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) spokesperson told VERIFY. “The Shelter and Services Program (SSP) is a completely separate, appropriated grant program that was authorized and funded by Congress and is not associated in any way with FEMA’s disaster-related authorities or funding streams.”
TTG,
Uh huh. Of course they’d say that. Excuse me if I don’t believe a single word from the DHS. This has nothing to do with Trump. I have no idea what, if anything, he has said on the topic. I’ve even read about the travails of impacted Americans in Hawaii on NPR; hardly a Trump/MAGA mouthpiece (yes, I’m always interested in learning what bizarre thoughts creep through the minds of commie subversives, like so many venomous snakes).
Thanks for the “fact checking”, though. You seem to have a well honed skill set. You could always supplement your income working evenings for Snopes.
Funny if the feds were doing anything for the Hawaii fire survivors or for the Helene victims, I’m sure Harris and Elmer Fudd – I mean Walz – would be crowing to the high heavens about it. Maybe even Buttgig would join the chorus. Not a peep though, in an election year nonetheless.
What IS encouraging is all of the regular Americans volunteering and donating to help the victims of Helene in TN and NC. But FEMA? Diddly squat.
Here is some classic “Snopes”. This time on the topic I brought up. It amounts to, “Lies! Damn lies I tell you!” without actually explaining what is being done for impacted people other than, “There’s money and stuff, Trust us. Mayorkas didn’t mean what he said when he said that he didn’t have money for disaster relief for Americans”.
https://www.snopes.com/news/2024/10/07/fema-out-of-money-for-hurricane-season-migrants/#:~:text=FEMA%20Isn't%20Running%20Out%20of%20Hurricane%20Relief%20Money%20Due%20to
Those of us who actually are responsible for contracts and large amounts of money ($ billions) in a business environment laugh at such shady mealy mouthed declarations of assurance from unnamed “Fact checkers” – and from govt department Directors. There are no specifics. Just sweeping sales statements; like, “Trust us”. What is actually being done for the Americans impacted? Well, “there are programs and stuff. Now shut up, you conspiracy theorist”. What programs? You work for us, remember? Explain it, in detail and in person. Walk us through it.
The fact is, that, contrary to federal government fantasies, money doesn’t grow on trees and if you act like it does and just print more of it, you just get crushing inflation (already upon us. It will get worse). You can spend on illegals and sweatshop labor subsidies and Ukraine, etc. – or you can spend on Americans in need. There is nothing magical about “funding streams”. You start with a pot of money to be invested and then you decide which funding stream you put it in. If you eliminate or reduce some funding streams that aren’t adding significant value, then you have more money to invest in those that remain; which, presumably, are the more strategically important projects. In a high functioning business or government they would be those that serve the people best and that are building for a better future. Your main problem is that you think the pot is bottomless and there can be as many fully funded streams as you desire.
Also, a program should have specific features, easily delineated and easily presented. So, what are the features of today’s disaster relief? Who is explaining those to stressed out desperate victims?
But boy they really do bend over backwards to make sure that a bunch of non-English speaking Haitians and illegal border hoppers are coddled all the way into $9/hr jobs and welfare.
Eric Newhill,
The FEMA programs for disaster relief and the Shelter and Services Program (SSP) are two different programs funded by Congress as two different programs. Money for one program cannot be transferred to another without congressional approval. I know how that works from experience with fighting for specific programs in the DIA budget. That’s not the way it works in the commercial world, but it is how the federal government works.
Trump’s claim to the contrary, in his videotaped speeches and echoed by many, is pure horseshit. His claims that the $750 grants given to people in North Carolina were loans are also horseshit. They are initial emergency grants. Trump did take money out of the FEMA disaster relief program and allocated it to the SSP in 2019. I don’t know whether he did this with congressional approval or not. BTW, the grants given to those in Lahaina was $700.
TTG,
I know. I was GS once upon a long time ago.
But there is still one finite pot of approved money (aka annual federal budget) from which all programs are funded. At bottom, the presence of a funded program or programs for illegals and other “migrants” means there is less of the budget available for other funded programs, like disaster relief for Americans.
How much food and rent can you purchase with $750? It’s an insult.
What I see is that FEMA wanted $17 billion in the Disaster Relief budget line item for the FY25 continuing resolution but only got $10. So any capable bureaucrat is going to push to get that other $7 billion back in a supplemental. Of course, you could request a reprogramming but that isn’t smart way.
We own a house in west Pasco Co. Hudson Beach and Port Richey (west of US19) got flooded out in Helene; no doubt will get it again. If St Pete takes a direct hit expect New Port Richey and Tarpon Springs also in trouble. Milton comes down to what happens when the wind shear hits it Wednesday.
TTG, any old buds down MacDill way?
scott s,
I know a few old friends stayed in the area, but I’m not in regular contact with them. Two of my old SF mentors lived in the Saint Pete area, but have long since gone to the SFOB in the sky.
You aren’t following the relief efforts. You are following FOX and the right wing conspiracy cabal. And FYI, without the undocumented, there would be NO cleanup after any disaster. Who do you think does all of this dirty work over time in the heat and the damp after a hurricane? I am not a fan of Trump but, as a Californian, I know exactly how much of the daily grunt work is done by undocumented workers and if he did send them all home, I know what a shit show would follow. You might want to do some research on how many undocumented workers YOU depend on. It might surprise you.
Laura,
Who is digging people out, chain sawing trees and delivering relief goods all over TN and NC? It’s regular American citizens volunteering and donating, not illegals (some of whom were arrested taking advantage of an opportunity to loot).
But please, regale us with you great knowledge of this topic. How about some statistics, metrics….anything, to confirm the leftist talking points you like to throw at people as if they are unquestionable reality. Come on. I’m waiting.
Btw – I’m not watching Fox or listening to Trump. I’m following people involved in the relief efforts and well as impacted citizens. Are you?
So Californians are effete, lazy and prefer something resembling slave labor to do their dirty work. That’s one statement from you that I believe. Most of the country is not CA.
Laura,
So.glad to hear the official recovery story from a source to be trusted. Zero American citizens clean their own homes, yards, businesses after a natural disaster. Do they have “undocumented ” to wipe their pumps too, like King Joffer of Zamunda and his son? Though I’m sure thiers were “extreme vetted”.
Are you kidding? Do you not know that something like 1 in 5 construction workers are undocumented. Many of those doing the most menial tasks…digging the ditches for electrical and plumbing and so many doing concrete work. Rebuilding after a hurricane without them….good luck!
Laura,
You went from all to only 20% real quick. Americans, real ones not the fake news kind, can do all that. Petroleum helps a lot, to run things like backhoes and bulldozers and bucket trucks allowing work on overhead powerlines. But I’m happy to have you provide evidence of a regulated utility or their contractors using illegal immigrant labor. Because hiring people without “documents ” is illegal.
I burned up some of Vanessa Kerry’s carbon credits (who, and who elected her, you might ask) and enjoyed a few hours on the I4 parking lot, followed by an hour why people still rubberneck accidents. I especially enjoyed the fine person, I assume they are fine persons, who was driving with green fog lamps and highbeams. I’m sure they’ll love the commemorative paper the state trooper presented to him (or her, or zer) as a momento of their decision.
Maybe I can finally get away from the bad news. Anything happening, I’m semi off grid. With the dog, and those fine people, or dogs (on the intertubes nobody knows), who comment here. At least there’s electricity and hot coffee.
Fred,
Glad you’re all okay so far. My advice is to embrace your time off the grid. You should only be listening to local stuff for the next couple of days anyways.
Local weather is sunny and 74. Fish are biting and best of all the coffee pot works. Now off to fix breakfast
Stay safe Fred.
Ttg.
I found your previous reply a bit disconcerting in the previous post and I would like to reply if I may
You know there are only 15 million Jews worldwide.Many were lost in the holocaust and it has always been a priority to regain our numbers.
Many young women of child bearing age were murdered on 7/10 and it has been a severe blow to the Jewish people from this perspective
I believe that it was a deliberate attack on Israelis and jews worldwide including American Jews.
This is not about vile Zionists.
Unlike other religions who attract converts Judaism relies solely on the building of numbers from generation to generation.
What happened to those young jewish woman is unforgivable.Right now in Gaza there is a chance for them to be released.I hope this will happen.
mcohen,
Yes, what happened to those young Jewish women is unforgivable. What happened to young Christian and Muslim women in Gaza, along with their children, is equally unforgivable.
“Unlike other religions who attract converts Judaism relies solely on the building of numbers from generation to generation.”
I thought conversion to Judaism was an accepted thing. Is that not so? Or are to referring to just active evangelical conversion?
It is accepted but a difficult process,esoecially the orthodox.Takes a few years of serious study and devotion.
I was referring to the easier conversions of other relegions.
I have always wondered why the powers that be have never considered attracting more converts to Judaism.
Nah florida will miss it
After extensive consultation with the wizard of oz i say From Cuba to bermuda triangle then on to New Hampshire in a curve swerve.Leslie will put the final touch
mcohen, the wizard of Oz is an Irishman.
As the honorary Irishman — mc O’hen — should know.
Because Oz is an abbreviation for O’zero.
As your Rabbi said when he circumcised you at your briss:
Oy gevalt! This child is better named O’zero than O’hen, isn’t it clear?
fart lingus… no cunni man!
telly tubby time
it will turn south then head to cuba and meet up with leslie and head up to new hampshire where kelly ayotte will be waiting on the beach to pray for it to retreat out to sea
Category 4 as of noon eastern. Be safe, all.
50/50 chance that it fizzles out and/or turns off onto a safe path.
Still being cautious is the best approach.
It’s back to Category 5.
https://apnews.com/live/hurricane-milton-florida-tracker-updates
TonyL,
There’s nothing to worry about because Herr Eric(h) says so.
What could War-wren Buff-Fete possibly know?
———————————-
https://t.me/banksta/58935
The Warren Buffett Crisis Probability Index has reached 197%, the highest level on record, surpassing peaks seen during the dot-com bubble and the global financial crisis. The Buffett Index is a measure of the value of all publicly traded companies in a country and is the ratio of the stock market’s market capitalization to gross domestic product (GDP). @banksta
F&L,
I said 50/50. TonyL must choose.
Do you think this guy used a weighted coin?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opbi7d42s8E
it’s fiction. FWIW there are magicians and crooked gamblers who can make a perfectly fair coin turn up heads 25 times consecutively. Even after throwing it three stories above the ground. Without cheating. I’ve seen that and much worse. Watch Hogan’s Heroes … notice the Brit? Espionage agencies have people like that on speed dial. And I suppose you think “Jesus” performed “miracles.” If the US Army wanted to they could visit ramshackle midieval villages anywhere on earth and perform nearly all the so-called miracles of the NT and none of the onlookers would be the wiser. Ditto for USN etc.
F&L,
Bonus because I’m feeling generous today – the clip is from a film written by Cohen
down to cat3 now.
Let’s hope the fizzle out continues to cat 2 or less.
I know a young couple that lives in the Tampa Bay area and the husband is at Fort McDill in the AF. He wanted to come over here with his wife and baby, but the AF will not let him evacuate. If the projected storm surge materialize, McDill will be under water by tomorrow afternoon. As of right now, St. Armand’s Circle is the bullseye, but pushing tons of water into Tampa Bay will do some real damage since the surrounding land is flat and low. It seems that once the storm passes, we will face our storm surge as the winds change. The water level in our canal is already high due to all the rain we have had lately. The good news is that the house is 13 ft above mean high tide.
The camps on this site here (SST) are facing off in stubbornly held obsessive beliefs, several of which remind me of delusional psychoses. Obsession is not a sign of mental health. Eric reminds me of a jilted lover who because of an inborn primitive nature, beats his beloved to death before taking the time to ascertain the facts of the case. It made me recall this post by Anatoly Nesmiyan this morning on what he sees as the inevitability of another American Civil War. I thought I’d present his outlook and sketch of the most likely scenario as he sees it and see how realistic it seems to this assembly. He’s Russian so he reaches for the example closest to hand — Donetsk. I don’t quite think he understands how big and complex this American place is but it’s interesting. Translation below link.
——————————————————-
https://t.me/anatoly_nesmiyan/20947
The last month before the vote in the US has begun. As a rule, for every politician, the presidential election is a swan song, the loser almost never takes part in such an event again. Trump is rather an exception, although not quite – after all, he was president, so his loss in the last election did not completely rule out the possibility of trying again. But it is clearly the last one.
In general, politicians go to elections as if it were the last time, and therefore, of course, they assure everyone that these elections are epochal and critically important.
The subtlety is that with each new election iteration, the elections are, indeed, becoming an increasingly critical point for the United States. The States are at a dead end in their development, the two concepts of development are incompatible in principle, and sooner or later, they will have to face each other in a real fight to decide by force who will be king of the mountain. Civil conflict in the United States is predetermined, the only question is its timing, ferocity and format.
Strictly speaking, the severity of the conflict depends very much on the other two parameters. If the clash is delayed, the potential energy of the future clash only grows, and therefore its severity. The second point is the format. Most likely, there will be no fronts like the first civil war. There will be the Donbass format – in one or two maximally depressed states a settling tank will be created, where the entire passionate element will be dumped, and on the territory of which the conflict will decide the fate of two basic projects for the future of America. This, of course, does not exclude local skirmishes outside the settling tank, but everything will happen there.
It is clear that during the period of the fight the States will sharply weaken their presence on the world stage, and during this period all the scum and scum of world politics will, of course, crawl out of all the cracks. So only people who are completely sad in mind can rejoice at a possible civil conflict in the States, no one will seem to be in trouble.
Most likely, for the Kremlin, the plot of initiating a civil conflict in the States may seem the most optimal, as it will allow them to breathe a little and try to sort out what has been messed up in recent years. In all likelihood, this will not be possible, but first of all due to the complete loss of at least some managerial competencies. But the fact that the Kremlin is betting on a military draw this November is most likely.
As for the outcome of the US elections (and there are three of them – a victory for one of the candidates or a third option – a refusal to recognize such a victory and, accordingly, the initiation of an internal conflict), in general, it is impossible to predict anything. If the situation were more stable, there would be no doubt. But it is no longer stable, so the probability that the third scenario is possible is not zero today.
This does not change the fact that the probability that everything will be as usual is quite high. And perhaps everything will go in this direction. And then it does not even matter who wins. “Ours” are not there anyway.
The states are at a dead end of their development? Another poorly I formed European heard from.
Mostly peaceful protests.
Corporations are people.
Enron.
Financial derivatives are safe.
Clarence Thomas (Long Dong Silver rides again!)
Repacking mortgages.
Barack Obama (“Turns out I’m really good at killing people!”)
Savings & Loan hijacking (John McCain, war hero)
Al Gore “I Invented the Internet!”
Fred of Turcopolier dot com “Global warming is a hoax!”
367 Armed Police at Uvalde do nothing for 90 minutes.
Building 7.
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F&L bloviates again. The Russian blogger should learn something about the US before predicting catastrophe.
Freddy Kruger called. He asked if you weren’t called Freddy Crewgirl in the navy. I told him to stop flattering himself. He hung up.
This author should probably look to his own neighborhood. Russia is much closer to a civil war than the US. It will start with who controls large areas of the economy and it’s corrupt spoils, but it also is starting to get an ethnic edge to it. The war with Ukraine is bringing a lot to the surface. The problem for Putin is that much of Russia consists of ethnic areas. In the US, those who have tried armed insurrection have been arrested, charged and imprisoned. Besides, the favorite weapon for the most avid warriors is a keyboard. Jim
Anatoly Nesmiyan is not Russian. Rather, an Armenian of the low class variety.
Top Quality Armenians, from the Turkey/Syria/Lebanon region end their names with ‘ian’, while the institutionalized former Soviets of the western area now the Republic of Armenia end with ‘yan’. The real Armenians (ian) are of superior intellect, entrepreneurial nature and strong moral character, whereas the western ones are Soviet/Russian boot lickers always looking for a handout.
The western Armenians that immigrated to the US after the Soviet Onion collapsed, albeit they at least had the decency to do it legally, are a disgrace. Disproportionately on welfare, forming gangs, prostitution and other bad habits developed from decades of inhabiting a Soviet/Russian environment.
The pezevenk is writing whatever his Russian handlers tell him to hoping they’ll throw him a bone.
I owe you an apology Eric. You’re right – he’s very murky indeed. Unusually so. I just didn’t appreciate your anti-armenian bias. But you forced me to do some research and I’m grateful for your assistance. He was born in a village near Kiev. There’s very little data about any ethnic origins other than that his name sounds like it’s Armenian. He was strenuously opposed to Minsk 1 and in favor of the militia, possibly involved with Strelkov. He’s all over the map regarding his political ideas, apparently. The fact that Putin allows him such free reign is particularly notable. He is so intensely hateful in his prose and demeanor that it’s possible to view him as one of the SU’s many victims of soul- murder. His blogging outlet and his marriage suggest he’s found adaptive sublimation, but he nonetheless he cracks up occasionally due to the rage. A character straight out of Charles Dickens highly abused and abusive pan0ply of characters. His intellect is powerful and thus he compensates – just a guess.
Here’s one of my sources — I assume you know how to translate it etc.
https://fb-ru.turbopages.org/fb.ru/s/article/333020/anatoliy-nesmiyan-el-myurid-biografiya-deyatelnost-i-otzyivyi
F&L,
First a clarification and a correction on my comment. I don’t have an anti-Armenian bias. I think Western Armenians are awesome people. I accidentally said that it is the Western Armenians who came to the USA after the Soviet fall who were the bad ones. I meant to write the *Eastern* variety from the Republic of Armenia (the yans). The former Soviets. The Western Armenians are the good ones who typically came to the USA much earlier (1920s – 1930s) and then again in the mid 70s when the Lebanese Civil War commenced. My father’s family – and of course, half myself – are the good Western variety.
I would say that Nesmiyan is probably 50% Armenian, based on his looks, and that his family probably ended up in Ukraine after the genocide committed against Armenians by the Turks. So arrived in Ukraine a generation or, more likely, two ago. The soul dead and prideless Sovietized Armenians thought it fashionable to take Russian first names. For example, the Prime Minister of Armenia is Nikol Pashinyan (Nikol is not an Armenian name and, again, note the ‘yan’ instead of ‘ian’). Actually, I think the yan surname ending is also an attempt to appear more Russian. The ‘yan’ is pronounced like ‘yawn’, whereas the ‘ian’ is pronounced like ‘ ee an’.
So, I was a bit off again (some days are like that), in that I assumed he was from the Republic of Armenia and he is, in actuality, not. However, the same syndrome applies; an institutionalized Putin boot licker who has forgotten or denied his roots. An Uncle Tomasyan, if you will.
To the topic of TTG’s post – It looks like, “Hurricane Milton is the worst ever because global warming! We’re all going to die! DIE!!!!!”, has gone the way of, “Covid! We’re all going to die! DIE!!!! unless we all take the vaccine you selfish, pig, denier, conspiracy theorist, super spreader!”
Milton is not good, but, thankfully, it appears to not the unprecedented savage mauling that many feared it would be.
I hope Tampa’s Lt Dan is ok. Dan don’t give a damn. I like this guy. Half crazy/half big brass balls. A denier to the marrow. America needs more like him.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/florida-man-lieutenant-dan-to-ride-out-hurricane-on-fishing-boat-in-tampa/ar-AA1rYesp?ocid=BingNewsSerp
And…Hurricane denier Lt Dan safely rode out the storm in his boat right off the Tampa coast.
https://people.com/viral-florida-man-lt-dan-safe-after-riding-out-hurricane-milton-in-boat-8726113
Eric Newhill,
I remember a lot of boats heading out to sea rather than remaining tied up to a dock when a storm approached. Lieutenant Dan rode out Helene in Tampa and now Milton. Luckily his location proved advantageous. Milton came ashore at low tide and the winds and surge were moving out of the bay rather than into it because it hit Sarasota rather than Tampa. As long as he was moored decently to a wooden piling, he was in good shape. But it was still a hell of a gamble.
Thanks Eric. The comments of the police who rescued Lt Dan are brilliant and very funny.
Pesky quiz: Did you get the reference to Forest Gump? His Lt Dan was even more seriously injured. Looks like this current gentleman scholar of Hurricane Milton didn’t quite invest an inheritance in Apple stock in 1980 or whenever. Gotta luv em.
Two excellent opinion pieces today in my least favorite newspaper, but what can you do?
The unherd piece updates us on our old discussion of Emmanuel Todd. Excerpts for links 2, 3 below urls. You can’t believe anything Trump says but if his immigration and tariff policies are authentic and implemented it looks like national suicide to me.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/10/opinion/violence-election-day.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/10/opinion/manufacturing-harris-trump-immigration-college.html
Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are vowing to engineer a manufacturing renaissance. Such promises evoke 1950s-era memories of strong communities full of ordinary Americans, many without college degrees, earning attractive pay and benefits for their hard work.
Manufacturing bottomed out at around 10 percent of nonfarm workers by 2019. The numbers employed in manufacturing started to recover under President Biden and may continue to rebound. But what results from that growth won’t resemble these misty recollections.
Many of those roles will need to be filled by immigrants. In 1950, when manufacturing was near its peak as a share of total employment, the mostly male working population was growing at a steady clip, thanks in part to a fertility rate of 3.1 children per woman.
The complexion of the working population and its growth rate has since changed. While women and immigrants helped offset the slowing growth of the native-born population, it hasn’t been enough: Two-thirds of respondents to a National Association of Manufacturing survey this past spring said that their biggest challenge was attracting and retaining employees. (More at link)
https://unherd.com/newsroom/emmanuel-todd-nato-will-disintegrate-if-ukraine-loses/
Nato will “disintegrate” if Ukraine loses its war with Russia, according to the French historian and public intellectual Emmanuel Todd. Speaking to Italian newspaper Corriere di Bologna this week, Todd claimed that “if Russia is defeated in Ukraine, European submission to the Americans will last for a century”, but that if the US-backed Ukrainian effort fails, “Nato will disintegrate and Europe will be left free (more at link).