In 2015 one Ivan Sukhov wrote in The Moscow Times that Russia was slamming shut door after door to the West.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2015/03/12/russia-is-slamming-door-after-door-on-the-west-a44703
I would like to suggest that President Putins current actions make perfect sense if he is now nailing that door shut. Furthermore, if this is the case, our actions are helping, not hindering his strategy. Remember Putin is a Judo aficionado.
More learned members can explain the historical basis for the tensions in Russia between the pro western “modernists” who have been around since perhaps 1600 and the more traditional deep russian orthodox tradition. We are assuming, in our narcissistic pride, that Putin and the average Russian “wants to be like us” therefore we impose sanctions with the intent of distancing Russia from the West on the assumption that this will hurt Russia. Well what if it just reinforces and even accelerates a Russian trend to reject everything the West allegedly stood for?
Bear in mind that Putin has declared America to be “not agreement capable” and that Russia has declared that it is pivoting into Eurasia with the intention of looking inwards and towards China. Presidents Putin and Xi have already stated as such and specifically rejected what passes for American style democracy, such as it is these days. Given this strategy, why would Putin and the average Russian give a flying #@@$ about, for example, the cancellation of the Russian F1 Grand Prix? Indeed the expulsion of Russia from western institutions simply reinforces the conservative Russian beliefs that the modernisers were wrong to try and integrate in the first place.
If this supposition is correct, then what does it suggest about Russia’s intent in the Ukraine? To me, it suggests that Putin is not intent on “recreating the Russian Empire” but instead is trying to ensure that what is left of Ukraine cannot ever be used as a launching pad, physically and metaphorically, for attacks on Russia. Removing Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea would fit with that, as perhaps would be creating a Novorussia East of the Dnieper. As for access to Western institutions, why would Russia care any more if it’s eyes are now turned Eastwards?
What does the committee think?
We are all personifying Russia, but it is my strong suspicion that there is a lot of division inside the Russian elite right now. You have Putin and perhaps most of the military and foreign ministry types on one side, and you have the finance and economy people on another side.
Turning East and South is a legitimately viable path available to Russia. But I think on a personal level, a lot of people in the Finance Ministry, Central Bank, in big business, in the upper middle class professional class, strongly prefer Western Europe and the West. Chinese products to them are third rate, Chinese culture completely alien. It almost seems like there is stalling, no counter response to sanctions, no big public PR push for immediate import substitution, no positive spin.
Sean
My reading is that in taking the country to war, Putin’s target is just as much domestic constituencies as it is the West, perhaps more so. The aim is to force Russia’s Western-leaning élites into line – and that includes the Central Bank. A total rift with the West was never going to be possible otherwise. This way he presents the split as a fait accompli and all patriots will be expected to get behind his policies. If it is successful Putin will go down in history as one of the most brilliant statesmen of all time.
Judo is most certainly at play in nailing shut the door. For example, our sanctions on the oligarchs who stash their wealth outside the country ought to help repatriate some of that wealth to Russia. The ones who choose to stay abroad Russia does not want anyhow. Putin sees this as a civilizational war, with Russian civilization incompatible with increasingly degenerate Western values. How things have changed from “that refined French in which our grandfathers not only spoke but thought” (Tolstoy).
I’ve posted a link to this before, but here is an excerpt from Vladislav Surkov’s 2018 essay The Loneliness of the Half-Breed which I think sums up well where the Russian leadership’s thinking has gotten to since the Maidan coup in 2014:
Pax Sino-Russia was announced on February 4th. It is fundamentally an alliance of two nationalist powers who (as David Habakkuk correctly points out) wish to retain their own ‘ideological strength’ so as not to be subsumed by the woke neoliberal universalism that is well on its way to utterly destroying what is left of Western culture.
Barbara Ann,
We said the same thing 3 minutes apart (I was first ;-). The west can’t acknowledge it because it means a painful self-reflection and a refutation of the zeitgeist the elites are lost in. So we get BS.
I am with Russia in its fight. I like seeing GloboHomo – those destroying our culture and institutions – getting its ass kicked, even if via its Ukrainian proxy.
Nicely put, especially concerning the ‘civilizational’ aspect of the ongoing Russia vs. the West adversity. Nevertheless, bear in mind that every single nation Russia and China are experiencing a painful post-ideological phase from the revolutionary to the conservative/nationalist. It is quite shocking for the governing polity of each of these cultures to observe its base culture if and when exposed to liberal democracy, abandoning it (or largely ignore it due to residual natural instinct or habit ignore it) in favor liberal democracy, thus the conservative-nationalist reaction kicks in to thwart its citizens’ freedom of choice too choose for they see it as a ‘threat’ to their exitence. The western tradition that is enshrined in the Declaration of Independence (and not the current Democratic Party’s woke and nihilistic progressive liberalism) recognizes the natural rights of individuals to freely ‘choose’, whereas in non-western cultures (especially the post-revolutionary) the natural rights principles either don’t exist or takes a totally different and particularistic meanings. My point regarding the civilizational struggle of these post-revolutionary nations is that their distressed autocratic leaders do not properly understand liberal democracy, because they either don’t trust their citizens’ judgment or think that liberal democracy is automatically bound to exterminate their identity and their status in one tsunami of change from the bottom. This explains their absolute disdain toward democracy, so they tend to define democracy in terms of instability, social unrest, so forth and fight it tooth and nail or (more recently) they masterfully ‘engineer it’ which is called illiberalism or illiberal democracy. Nonetheless they are right to assume that ‘wokism’ will destroy their culture if democracy is allowed to take root in their respective societies, but they are dead wrong to equate wokism with liberal democracy. All the recent statue-toppling theatres, re-writing of history and the ‘street-justice’ movements by the woke mob with ties to foreign powers have distorted the merits of liberal democracy and have been exploited by the autocrats to suppress and repress the freedom of choice in their countries. Japan, S.Korea, Italy, Germany are all distinct in terms of their cultures and all are proper liberal democracies. So I think the clash of civilizations narrative is quite relevant here and explains a lot of means of motifs of Russia.
Thank you for saying this so well. The “wokism” is a tool being used to undermine the western culture of personal freedom and free participation in its own governance. It began years ago with the undermining of traditional values, most importantly, the family. I don’t think that it will succeed, for it must undermine all of nature – and that is what it is trying to do.
Same goal as the Communists and it ‘succeeded’ for 70 years in Russia (sadly)
You state ” All the recent statue-toppling theatres, re-writing of history and the ‘street-justice’ movements by the woke mob with ties to foreign powers” can you kindly say which foreign powers were encouraging this woke theater? When you have the ruling classs Kamala Harris/Joe Biden/Nancy Palosi full throatedly supporting those peaceful demonstrations throughout 2020. Even Harris was so dismayed by the racism here in our homeland she declared on a TV show “They are not going to stop protesting, they should keep protesting” so on so forth. She even raised the money to bail out those foreign inspired protesters as you say. I am wondering who those foreigners were?
Polish Janitor,
” the conservative-nationalist reaction kicks in to thwart its citizens’ freedom of choice too choose…”
Here in the US it is the elites who thwart the citizens freedom of choice, the latest examples being ‘gay marriage’, a creation of 5 justices of the Supreme Court overturning a couple thousand years of cultural tradition and multiple examples of citizens choice via legislative bodies.
“Japan, S.Korea, Italy, Germany are all distinct in terms of their cultures and all are proper liberal democracies”
Those ‘liberal democracies’ only came into existence after 1945. The US had a major role in creating all those governmental structures.
It is sure looking like you may be right. Really, how many times can you keep being rejected before it finally sinks in that the other side doesn’t a damn about you and perhaps even wishes you dead?
Putin was smart and patient. And it appears that he may have finally found a way to begin the splintering up of Nato and possibly even the EU.
Just my opinion.
And it appears that he may have finally found a way to begin the splintering up of Nato and possibly even the EU.
I did not read this as Putin’s intention as presented by walrus’ here. 😉 Seems more reminiscent of elements of the Russia-Gate narratives.
His actions definitively suggests he does not bother about Western public opinion. Considering the dominant anti-Russian fervor for years, not such a big surprise.
Russians wanted to be a part of European culture and, as Putin constantly insisted, equal partners in sphere of economy and security. However it was not to be. They were rebuffed, threatened and denigrated. 2008 and 2014 were critical moments.
As you say, it seems the Russian government (not yet sure about the Russian people) has finally decided to stop trying and go their own way.
It didn’t have to be this way.
European culture has not been truly European since WW2, in much the same way that America has not been the country of its founders for well over a century now, and particularly so since 1932. We are both under the thumb of elements alien to the West, and are struggling to get out, but are up against strong resistance. So in that light, it did have to be this way. One day, if we can get these shackles off, reconciliation may be possible.
Walrus,
I’m thinking of Tonto’s last words to the Lone Ranger, “What do you mean us, kemosabe?” The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), led by China, has suspended all business with Russia and Belarus. This one move is not a big deal, but it does mean China doesn’t want to get hit by the economic blood spatter. One of the main objectives of the BRI is to connect China with Europe. I doubt China will sacrifice their growing place in the “world order” in favor of joining Russia behind the new iron curtain. They will do what they can to maintain ties to both sides and may even try to resolve this Gordian knot.
Yes, Walrus, it sure looks that way. The West’s arrogance and truculence are going to result in an epic “own goal” in my estimation.
I could expand, and adduce all sorts of examples of the self-defeating boneheaded was on display, but why bother?
To paraphrase Will Rodgers: Some people learn by reading, some by observing, but some just have to piss on the electric fence.
Make that “boneheadedness”. Damned iPhone spellchecker trips me up again. Should have posted on my old Samsung instead.
… you might simply want to uncheck some type of automatic setting?
It is coming to that. It is a new phone, & I was giving the default settings a trial to see how they comport with my preferential use patterns, but yeah, conclusions are about to be drawn, and not to the advantage of their spell checker (whose dictionary database leaves a lot to be desired, probably “keeping it simple” because they consider us stoopid, frankly, not an unwarranted assumption in the main here in the USA…).
The Apple keyboard is completely annoying, making me switch to another screen for access to even the most commonly used punctuation marks and symbols. On my now about 8 year old Samsung’s keyboard, this is generally not necessary except for more arcane symbols. It is really, really aggravating. On the Samsung, by way of contrast, if I hold down a key on a letter, a little menu appears which allows me to select for the letter with, say accents that appear in French, or umlauts in German, often with options that appear in the orthography of still more languages, some of them even being non-European such as Turkish. I do use these characters in the context of my typed communications, so I value the – clearly thought out – ease of this function.
Other things indicate to me that the Apple keyboard and navigational options are “dumbed down” to accomodate Twitter length eructations, and certainly have not been tailored to longer, more sophisticated written communications. It’s just so Woke in those features that it willfully excludes from easy accessibility that, sorry to say, it is quite emblematic of the deterioration of American literacy.
No wonder that Samsung, only partly for reasons of price, is beating the pants off of Apple cellphones in the wider world, as Samsung is far less parochial in equipping its customers with ready access to these sorts of features. Duh. (That is why I am using that, by modern standards, obsolete Samsung to log this comment.)
And, this just in, Apple has just announced that it will be shutting down its sales efforts in Russia. Virtue signaling über (used that push and hold feature to select for ü) Alles! Somewhere in the afterlife, I wonder if Steve Jobs is putting his fist through a wall. Well, they’re not alone, as VISA has also announced that they are shutting down their operations in Russia, and soon will deactivate any VISA cards issued by “partner” (heh, now proven to be just as meaningless a useage as President Putin would exhibit by continuing to refer to the stone deaf diplomats of the West as “partners”, eh?) banks there. Piling on the coals to accelerate the process of de-dollarization, are we?
It’s all so tiresome.
walrus,
I think you are ‘opening up’ a very interesting area, but may also be missing some elements of complexity.
There are a whole series of problems, involved with how one should explain the fact that German history in the twentieth century led to ‘Stunde Null.’
In an ironic way, the interpretative issues have been compounded by the extraordinary success of the post-war ‘Pax Americana’, both in Western Europe and key parts of East Asia, and the patent failure of the ‘Soviet model.’
However, while the idea of a ‘national socialism’ has apparently been discredited by Hitler, this was not simply a kind of manic, German, idea. Indeed, in some ways, Benjamin Disraeli might be considered a kind of ‘national socialist.’
Moreover, the fact that what one might call ‘Herderianism’ – defence of the ‘particularist’ claims of ‘cultures’, under threat from the ‘Enlightenment’, against the ‘universalist’ pretensions characteristic of ‘Enlightenment’ culture – did in important ways contribute to the German disaster, does not make it simply irrelevant.
When ‘democracy’ is no longer represented by Franklin Roosevelt, but by Joe Biden, the possibility that these older arguments may not be as decisively settled as people in Washington and London seem to think remains open.
A suspicion that has been developing in me, for some time, is that both Russia and China may be presenting a kind of ‘German’ challenge, which has to do as much with ‘ideology’ as military power.
You write:
‘More learned members can explain the historical basis for the tensions in Russia between the pro western “modernists” who have been around since perhaps 1600 and the more traditional deep russian orthodox tradition.;
It seems to me that the patent failure of the ‘pro western “modernists”’ in Russia over the past three decades – for which the West, in different ways, bears a good deal, although not all, of the responsibility – has opened up the question of whether there are possible reconciliations of the ‘new’ and the ‘old’ which may work.
A corollary of this, ironically, is that what Russia can add to the emerging alliance with China may actually have as much to do with ‘ideological strength’ as anything else. And – a bitter irony – much of this may have its origins in Germany.
David,
One has to also look at all this through the lens of power. The whole world has seen that the US use of power is capricious. Rhetoric doesn’t match actions. Rhetoric says rules-based order but the US flouts the very rules it’s rhetoric “champions”. In many ways much of US actions as well as others is also determined by the winds of domestic politics.
https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1500035050137653251?s=20&t=8_QWY_sEkN5EMNzSamWtRQ
The Republicans have always had a strong anti-Russia bent. Romney even said during his presidential campaign that Russia was the biggest threat. Then we saw how Trump was not only pilloried but effectively neutered from any possibility of rapprochement. The Democrats also had a dominant faction who believed in the muscular use of force for any reason including both the Clintons. So what do other great powers do when the US acts with impunity even when it does nothing to further its interests. Iraq being a good example. We spent trillions and shed blood both among the US military as well as Iraqis. What did we get in return?
Xi has said that the breakup of the Soviet Union was the greatest catastrophe. Of course he doesn’t care about the sentiments and the experience of those under the harsh boot of the Soviet military. He knows that the minute the stranglehold of power by the CCP is lost many will hang by lamp posts. He is therefore re-instituting neo-maoism and ensuring that all political adversaries are cut early. Deng realized early that the west could be easily seduced with the opportunity to make money. We see that today in how the biggest cheerleaders for CCP are Wall St, the NBA and other business interests and the funds they bring to bear on the political and governmental apparatus to keep that gravy train going. Notwithstanding the rhetoric the reality is that the CCP have an unmatched graft system that has taken in western leadership in both government & business.
The biggest issue we face IMO in the US and likely the UK and the anglosphere in general is the continuous rise in authoritarianism. Our government acts with impunity in international affairs. They’re doing the same in domestic affairs. The covidians have shown the extent they’ll go. In the US there’s been at best feeble pushback to mass surveillance, civil forfeiture with no due process, secret rubber-stamp FISA courts, the collusion between the national security apparatus and the the media, the role Big Tech plays in disinformation and misinformation campaigns including the cancellation of opposing views as well as the unprecedented consolidation of market & economic power and the role captured government has played in all this.
If there ought to be a fight, IMO, the people should be focused on the erosion of fundamental rights from a predatory and capricious power elite. We may have already crossed the rubicon to a point of no return to constitutional prerogatives. As we saw just a few weeks ago, Justin Trudeau invoked an emergency because he didn’t like those who protested his authoritarian policies and just froze their bank accounts with no pushback at all by the Canadian people. In fact the majority supported this arbitrary extra-constitutional act. We saw how Jacinda Ardern locked up her country for months and attacked those who questioned her snake-oil ideas of zero-covid as peddlers of misinformation. We now see people being fired from prestigious positions just for being an ethnic Russian. Liberalism is dead! Can it ever be revived? Are we now just trading off one totalitarian dictatorship for another?
did in important ways contribute to the German disaster
David, I guess I should simply ignore this. As you may recall, I am a bit touchy on not only Herder (and the Romantics generally vs Political Romanticism), but spent way to much hours with ardent supporters of Herder-the-Nazi-precursor reductionism. Both historians and literary scholars.
Arbitrarily: In the 19th century, nationalism dominated the 19th century in Germany only? Because it was a late nation versus a loose federation? …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationalism#History
Let me cite a historian from the Splendid Island:
https://tinyurl.com/R-J-Evans-The-Coming
It has been all too easy for historians to look back at the course of German history from the vantage-point of 1933 and interpret almost anything that happened in it as contributing to the rise and triumph of Nazism. This has led to all kinds of distortions, with some historians picking choice quotations from German thinkers such as Herder, the late eighteen-century Apostle of Nationalism, or Martin Luther, the sixteenth-century founder of Protestantism, to illustrate what they argue are ingrained German traits of contempt for other other nationalities and blind obedience to authority within their own borders. Yet when we look more closely at the work of thinkers such as these, we discover that Herder preached tolerance and sympathy for other nationalities, while Luther famously insisted on the right of the individual conscience to rebel against spiritual and intellectual authority.
That the Nazis misused Herder as they did several others would be easy to show. Here is an abstract of a recent publication by W. Daniel Wilson, who extensively researched the Goethe Society in Weimar between 1919-1949 and its global links and mission. Goethe is a name you never hear in this context.
Abstract
Goethe, brought into line
Goethe’s life is so richly documented, his life so complex, that he could easily be taken over by all kinds of opinion makers. For the Goethe Society, for example, founded in Weimar in 1885, he was less an enlightened humanist than a conservative nationalist even before the “seizure of power” in 1933. Afterwards, it conveyed the image of an emphatically “brown” Goethe even more vehemently. Eventually, the Olympian was harnessed broadly for regime purposes. The privileges of a planned »world mission«, coupled with increasing entanglements, result in an exciting, dramatic curve.
Goethe and Herder had their own struggles, as Herder had with both Lessing and Kant … None of those is usually mentioned in this expertise on the “German Mind”. Instead, you stumble across the same names and argument over and over again.
The cancel knock out game does not work. The globo guild corp knows it harms their brand but what else can they do? Reminds me when I was a kid and the rich brat kid down the street had a large trampoline, pool. He would invite kids over to jump and swim but he was such a nasty little runt nobody wanted to play with him.
I did like swimming and jumping but screw it. We got our fishing poles, rope and and an old tire and headed to the river. Ended up having even more fun. Caught some nice bass as well.
Too much emphasis on economic determinism on the matter of Russia. IMO, it is a matter of culture, pride and self-determination. Russia, in short, does not want to become just another vassal state in the great GloboHomo/Davos empire. The West has become atheistic and decadent, is degenerate and is self-destructive. Russia is playing a longer game. Russia experienced the socialism that West is embracing and doesn’t want to return to it. Russia knows that impulse will destroy the West. Why jump on a sinking ship? Besides, Russia has enough customers for what it sells to remain economically viable during the transition.
Eric Newhill,
I think you’re absolutely right about too much emphasis on economic determinism. Nor is anybody’s national security really at the heart of it. It’s about nationalism, culture and different interpretations of what all that means. It clearly means something different to Ukrainians than it does to Putin’s Russia. Why would Putin want to have anything to do with the rest of the world, economically or otherwise. Just be the hermit kingdom and let the Ukrainians wallow in the rest of the degenerate world. Ukraine obviously doesn’t want to be a part of the Greater Russia or even a part of Russia’s near abroad.
Even the “great GloboHomo/Davos empire” doesn’t see this purely in terms of economic determinism. If it did, this wouldn’t be happening.
“JPMORGAN: “..almost 70% of Russian oil is struggling to find buyers. .. nine cargoes of 100 thousand tons each for March loading failed to find buyers on Wednesday .. Russian benchmark Urals oil is being offered at a record $20 discount to international benchmark, with no bids.”
TTG,
Agree – Globohomo wants to push its satanic perversion of life and enslavement of souls on everyone because that’s what evil enjoys doing; profit is just a side show to tempt in more souls.
As for a security threat, Z blabbed openly about getting nukes, setting Moscow ablaze and some other irresponsible ideas that you’d expect from a corrupt dork that plays the piano with his penis in public for laughs, among which was joining the EU and NATO. Obviously, the US is at least ok with that because they didn’t admonish Z – and also because of 2014.
Back when the US was populated with men, we invaded Mexico because revolutionaries, like Pancho Villa, were making trouble for the US; an existential threat? No, just trouble. Then, of course, there have been less justifiable invasions like the Spanish American war and our invasion of Cuba. More recently, the invasion of Iraq on the 1% doctrine (if there was even a 1% chance of a nuclear armed Iraq, then we needed to invade and wreck the place). So taking even a hint of a threat seriously enough to start shooting is not exactly a concept from outer space for US citizens and policy makers. You’ve just conveniently forgotten that it’s SOP for the US because you hate Russia so much.
Now, if you want to tell me that might makes right, most and biggest guns win, etc, then fine. Such has the world always been. I respect that outlook. But then don’t try to mask it with a sense of moral superiority.
From Mrs. Nuland-Kagan’s triumphal collaboration with the self-proclaimed Nazi in Kiev in 2014 to Mr. Ze. forced marriage with Nazi paramilitary : https://thegrayzone.com/2022/03/04/nazis-ukrainian-war-russia/
The MSM has been trying to mask the Nazi monstrosity with Mr. Ze’s Jewishness.
Cerena,
You forgot the Orange Revolution of 2004 when the Ukrainian people rose up against the pervasive corruption and Soviet Union style autocracy that still pervaded independent Ukraine. That revolution caused a fairly dramatic turn to Western Europe interrupted only when Yanukovych reneged on a deal with the EU in favor of a Moscow plan. That precipitated the Euromaidan which was then aided and abetted by the Nuland/Clinton team. The nazi monstrosity was at its greatest strength in 2014/15. It has been waning ever since then. In the 2019 election, all the far right parties together failed to receive enough votes to gain one seat in the Vervovhna Rada. Zelenskiy received massive support in that election, especially in the eastern Oblasts.
TTG,
“Yanukovych reneged on a deal”
He was the duly elected president at the time. “reneged”, ie. decided his own country’s policy. It not being the acceptable one it led to that ‘revolution/coup’.
“…aided and abetted by the Nuland/Clinton team.”
That’s an understatement. How much money had the US, via the National Endowment for Democracy (and other methods) been funnelling into Ukaraine and for how many years? I think it goes back years.
I have no love for the Azov weirdos and no love for Schicklgruber’s Pervitin-addicts, but I don’t believe the word “Nazi” means anything consistent.
“Nazi” is supposed to mean somebody who is opposed to Jews. And the the Ukrainian “Nazis” follow orders from Jews, and lick the boots of their Jewish leaders. On top of that, the Poles, who are supposed to be the biggest Nazi-haters in history, might well join forces with Ukraine’s “Nazis.”
Maybe I am just too ignorant of historical nuance, but the word “Nazi” doesn’t make sense to me. Its meaning seems to twist around from moment to moment.
TTG,
To finish my thoughts, I do agree that if UKR wants to be absorbed into the globohomo Borg, then, theoretically, they should be allowed to do so. A couple issues though, as we see in the US and Canada (I don’t know enough about Europe), the decision to be assimilated into that Borg usually isn’t one The People consciously make. Rather, the elites and their paid noisy agitators and operatives decide to go that way and the people, like the slow boiled frog, only find themselves in existential hot water after it’s too late. I don’t know what Ukranians think about assimilation, or if they’re even aware that is to be their fate at the hands of corrupt US puppets like Z. Putin, however, is aware.
What is Ukranian culture? Is there such a thing? I bet it’s a heck of a lot closer to Russian culture than it is to US/Davos weirdness. If there is a distinct Ukrainian culture now, post assimilation, it won’t exist anymore than Col Lang’s beloved VMI culture exists post-assimilation. Part of assimilation is destruction of history, institutions, values; all replaced by decadent and weak weirdness.
Russia, OTOH, has a distinct culture and Putin seeks to preserve it. That is why the US hates him so much. He resists the assimilation. Again, I thoroughly enjoy watching the Borg thrash and wail over Putin’s impending victory and general defiance.
Eric Newhill,
Ukrainian culture is every bit as rich as Russian culture. It does draw a lot of influence from the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth days and from the Cossacks. Russian influence can be largely characterized by centuries of attempted cultural and language eradication by Imperial Russia, the Soviet Union, and now, Putin’s Russia.
If you knew Ukrainians you would know that TTG is correct. Ukrainian culture is an admixture of Polish (lots of interaction w/t Poles, much of it not so happy but some very happy), Lithuanian (ditto), Russian, a little Cossack, and even some German in Galizia. Few Russian Christians are Catholic while some Ukrainians near the Polish border are, some are Unitarian Orthodox, and others plain ole Orthodox. Then there are the Jews. For all the trashing of Ukrainians on this log as a bunch of Jew hating beast, Jews and Ukrainians have coexisted over the centuries. Ask young Zelinski about Ukrainian anti-semitism. Language is an important part of culture. We speak as we think and Russians and Ukrainians don’t always think alike. Watch a Ukrainian from Lvov try to have a conversation w/a Russian from Novosibirsk. There will be a general sense of understanding but not complete. Its like expecting a Portugese speaker from Lisbon to understand a Brazilian. The language is not the same. If you order sausage in Gdanks its Kielbasa but you better say K’basie in Lvov. And expect the piwa cold. My friend, Ukrainians are not “little russians” who delight in obeying the “big russians”. That is part of Mr. Putin’s problem. He hopes to restore the time when the Russian head of state is again the Master of all the Russias (did you note the plural). If you would be please explain your culture I might better understand why you think there is no such thing as a distinct Ukrainian culture. Best.
Eric Newhill,
Not only did Zelenskiy play Hava Nagila with his pecker on a piano along with his comedy troupe in front of a live audience, he won the 2006 Ukrainian version of Dancing with the Stars. BTW, if he could actually play piano that well with his pecker, he’s even more talented than I thought. It was a brilliant comedy sketch.
If you’re referring to anything other than Zelenskiy’s recent Munich Security Conference speech when you say he talks about getting nukes, I’d like a reference. He talked about wanting security, not nukes, in the Munich speech.
TTG,
Yes, Z is good at getting a rise out of an audience. He’s been working it hard the past week or so. He’s the entertainer and money launderer in chief. And to think some people criticized Trump as unfit for office for having some of the same background.
Anyhow, it’s not just Z who was demurring about nuclear weapons. Last year, the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany, Andriy Melnyk, suggested if Ukraine was unable to join Nato, it might have to reconsider its nuclear-free status. There have been others in the UKR govt making similar statements. Well, Ukraine ain’t joining NATO. I think the intelligent members of this committee can gather the available information and arrive at their own understanding of the situation.
Seems to me like veiled threats involving nuclear capability has been a UKR policy position as of late.
Btw, I thought “nationalism” was anathema to you liberal democrat types. Americans are not supposed to care and, indeed, to happy to allow ourselves to be invaded by millions of third worlders every year, but UKR’s culture, whatever that is, is sacred. Russia’s culture is not sacred, or is evil or something. I know that being deplorable, my culture not only doesn’t count, it demands elimination. UKR culture though? Well hot damn! lets send in everything we got to preserve it. Personally, I think you guys make it up as you go. Or maybe I’m just too stupid and deplorable to navigate all this enlightened Ivy League elitist ideology.
“Zelensky was elected in a landslide victory in 2019 on the promise of easing tensions with Russia and resolving the crisis in the breakaway republics in east Ukraine. He has made no attempt to keep his word on either issue.” https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-man-who-sold-ukraine/#comment-5212744
He betrayed the electorate.
Even the “great GloboHomo/Davos empire” doesn’t see this purely in terms of economic determinism. If it did, this wouldn’t be happening.
TTG you may be scraping the surface here only, it feels. It feels. Business is business, except if there may be or are troubles that may cause you to lose money???
But I understand your emphasis. 😉
simply read the statement made by putin and xi on feb 4 2022 for their goals and intentions. they have hidden nothing if you care to read it.
long term russia/china wins because they have the most modern and powerful manufacturing base backstopped by abundant affordable energy (watch germany now deindustrialize at warp speed) and the most advanced weaponry to ensure their sovereignty.
the west has the narrative (fairy tales endlessly repeated) and for the moment finance which they are going to lose sooner than later because of the games and outright thefts they are engaging in against russia. does the west really think the rest of the world has not noticed when they freeze and outright steal capital left in western banks for safe keeping? money always migrates to where it is welcomed and protected and that is no longer the west.
the west sops up the nonsense in the msm thinking they have got the subhuman russkies by the tail when it is the west doing themselves in but to do self absorbed to see it.
Good insights Ted.
I want to highlight your side comment about Germany’s suicidal deindustrialization. Is this not a form of the Morgenthau Plan wherein post WWII Germany was desired by the vengeful Morgenthau to become an economic backwater? This is the “keeping Germany down” bit coming to life in order to disrupt a mature, mutually advantageous relationship with Russia. And to a substantial degree, they are doing it themselves with their looney policies.
And to a substantial degree …
different policies would have meant ignoring/confronting the US and other EU members. How should that have worked?
I surely struggled with the Greek Crisis/threatened Grexit or the executed Brexit, but I was highly hesitant about the speed of EU’s eastward extension too. (…) Here we are: as long as the EU does not dissolve back into national units, Germany will always act within the larger consent framework.
Ultimately as US’ lackey, vassal? At least as long till the legitimate cherry blossom king has not returned to his throne?
IMO Putin doesn’t give a damn about NATO, Russia has a nuclear shield. It was the constant erosion of their traditional sphere of influence, run not by NATO but by mostly the US. I recall during the Maidan riots the neocon Nuland was recorded as saying “screw the EU”, so he knows the problem.
Does he want isolation? No. He want’s Russia to be respected and to preserve it
s status as a great nation. It’s a national interest. Putin allowed himself to be pictured as isolated during the run-up of this. The ridiculously long tables, allowing himself to be shown harshly dressing down his security chief, and perhaps even the uncharacteristic ranting were deliberate. The Russians want this to be Putin’s war, not Russia’s. I suspect they knew the risk of failure was high and set up a fall-back position of Putin’s resignation. Perhaps even if it went well. Putin is willing to step down, win or lose, and retire.
What he leaves behind was thought to be either control of Ukraine or a Ukraine, and a US, which will probably think a bit harder in the future about poking the bear and not idly let their bureaucrats poke it on a whim should a similar situation as Ukraine’s 2014 riots crop up again. It’s highly likely Putin leaving office would cause a lot of frightened people to look for a re-set with his successor and this time seriously.
I suspect they may have believed their own BS that inside every Ukrainian is a Russian waiting to be liberated. The first thrust was light forces attempting to enter Kyiv. They assumed this would be easy. I don’t think everything that is happening is “according to plan”.
Walrus…
Good Post..Like your New Photo.. Makes You Look Younger..
Serious Note..You Are IMO Correct About Your Thoughts..and I Think The Reason They are doing this Now With ONLY Ukraine..Is 1.Pay Back..Nato and France Germany
England and Biden.. Really Pissed Putin Off..By Constantly Escalating every Stage..
To Current Levels..
Fact Is..If France and Germany had Allowed Ukraines Request to Join NATO
Several Months Ago..(With Wink Wink Blinkens) And Ukraine was Now in
NATO..None of This would Be Happening Now…and Zelinsky Has Been Desperately
Trying To Draw NATO in With Interventions.. and still IS..
So Much Damage So Many Lifes Lost..Its Not Just All On Putin.all He Wants Is Land..Sea Air and Southern Ports Control of Ukraine..The Last Link To
Connect SoutH..Is Odessa..Russias Navy Is Moving In.
Final Stages almost Completed..Now Its Going into KYEV..snd Encircling
All Of Eastern Ukraine North To South To the Ports Securing Them..For Import
Export..And The Chinese ReConnect.. IMO
JT
jim,
“Fact Is..If France and Germany had Allowed Ukraines Request to Join NATO
Several Months Ago..(With Wink Wink Blinkens) And Ukraine was Now in
NATO..None of This would Be Happening Now…and Zelinsky Has Been Desperately”
If Germany had credibly announced that it would veto any attempt that Ukraine makes at joining NATO, then none of this would be happening right now, either.
rho.
..
Why…???
JT
Why? Because Russia wanted a security guarantee, and that would have been a pretty good way to provide one. Backed up by the credibility of the German government at least, which used to be worth more to the Russians than the credibility of the “non-agreement-capable” USA.
Since writing goals about NATO membership into national constitutions seems to be pretty popular these days, Germany could have even backed up such a promise by writing into the German basic law that it would always veto Ukrainian NATO membership applications.
Concur. The Rubicon has been crossed.
Does anyone actually disagree that Russia parted ways with the west? At max it will trade with unaligned nations from now on, using the chinese SWIFT. Their trade is not just about gas and oil, by the way. Look at wheat, at fertilizers and weapons, to name a few.
It likely also bought enough years for China to reach whatever superpower status it was aiming for, as I do not see how the USA will be able to push at the same time to contain both countries.
What a pleasure to find a rational and respectful setting forth of informed opinion amongst what can only be described as a general hysteria in MSM and the false reality it creates. Personally I am inclined towards Walrus and Barbara Ann that opportunity was willfully lost for a relationship between West and Russia. A very old friend made the point some decades ago now that Russia and Russians are not inclined to ‘bend the knee’ and are willing to pay the price for not doing so. I understand that a rough translation of Ukraine is ‘Borderlands’ and had they remained so as an old fashioned Buffer state that would have proven sufficient.
Covidian hysteria has magically vanished. Fauci is not on TV 24×7 any longer. Recall how it was an existential crisis for humankind and that we needed to lockdown and then impose all kinds of mandates to even participate in normal society? Recall what Australia, New Zealand and Austria did to their own citizens all in the name of zero-covid? What about Justin Trudeau freezing the bank accounts all those who opposed his covidian authoritarianism? All disappeared in an instant. Poof!
What will be the next hysteria? What will be on TV 24×7 in a year, in 5 years? Will all the prognostications today age well in 5 years? Will the Russia-China axis be the world hegemon? Will the dollar be replaced as the primary currency for trade & capital as so many are predicting? I recall the multitude of stories on the petro-dollar and how all the wars in the Middle East were about oil being priced in a different currency. Of course none of that had any basis in evidence or sound economic theory.
What I find fascinating is so few who are asking the question about how easily we are being manipulated and why we fall for it so easily. How fundamental civil liberties and and past norms of behavior continue to be jettisoned with each new emergency? Instead the media narratives intensify the emergency du jour.
Grand irony: Russia will be the time-capsule- preservationist of “Western values” — such as those Peter consciously imported from France and Italy.
“Western values” — such as those Peter consciously imported from France and Italy.
I am not too familiar with the “Western Values” Peter brought from Western Europe back to Russia, but concerning anything else it might have been dominantly from the Netherlands. Imagine, that. 😉
https://twitter.com/mzhemingway/status/1499908451673067529?s=21
The Democrats were on the ropes with their covidian authoritarianism and their woke agenda. When that started falling apart and losing big in the Virginia state election the narrative had to change. Enter Ukraine. Hunter and papa Biden’s grift playground. Playing right into the neocon wing of the Republicans. Tweedle Dee & Tweedle Dum.
Graham/Romney/Bush/Cheney are a group of t**ts. Especially Lindsey, as he is still “politically active”. This whore of babylon seamlessly shifts sides and tactics, his grating country-boy schtick worn thin, circa 2000. Thank God his ego-ideal Jolting’ John McCain is no longer staining the honor of the Senate (if indeed such a thing is possible) with his constant war mongering. Johnny Boy had his filthy mitts deep into supporting neo-nazi militias. Great legacy, John. Really, I mean it. What better way to spend one’s time on this earth?
https://twitter.com/cernovich/status/1499862644471185408?s=21
This is the laptop class. BLM riots and looting. Bend the knee. Trucker protests. Freeze their bank accounts. Covidian mandates. Cancel anyone who calls bullshit. Slander anyone who challenges The Science.
I’m pro-Ukraine, but I am against neo Nazis no matter whether they are in Ukraine, or Russia, or in the USA, or anywhere else.
But then I’ve never been a member of respectable society.
Leith
You don’t know how much talk of Nazis is anti-Ukrainian IO.
Much or most of it is Putin’s InfoWar Ops.
My perspective is Russia is being enormously strengtened by the current reaction of the West, the same way it happened in 1941. It is a huge miscalculation and is not good.
I’m from Eastern Europe – a native Bulgarian and I also know Russian because I studied in school at the times of the Soviet Union. We are probably culturally closer to Russians than even Ukrainians in some aspects.
In the Eastern Ortodoxy doctrine, the closer to the truth you are, the closer you are to God. That means the beliefs are not oriented towards commercial success, like in the Protestant world for example, where hard work will get you closer to heaven. Only doing the right thing will grant you a path to heaven, and if you need to be poor, then so be it. Even though releigion is not something significant today, it has shaped the mind of the whole Eastern Ortodox civilization. And what it means in practice is news about markets and inflation and poverty are having much smaller effect on Russians than what Westerners think. Of course Russians are worried about inflation and price rises – but at the same time they pride themselves because of doing the right thing, and this is stronger. The recent sharp increase in Putin’s rating confirms that – no amount of misery will stop such minded people when they beleive they are on the right path.
Unlike the West, where the Law defines public truth, in the Eastern Ortodoxy it is not the Law, but your own feeling of righteousness. If the law is against your gut feeling, it is not something you generally need to do. Hence the chaos and lack of strict rule of law in the whole Eastern Ortodox world – from parking & driving, to personal quarrels. The West sees this as some form of corruption, which it is not – it is just people beleiving in their own righteousness, not in the righteousness of the law . By the way, Geoffrey of Villehardouin “On the Conquest of Constantinople” says basically the same, and he has written his book in 1204. That is in essence the dilemma of the East, the ruler is expected to be a saint, and when he is not, people are allowed to follow their own judgement.
So what is happening now is Russians are rallying around their leader and are getting enormously dedicated to destroy the “unjust” and “unrighteous”. Nuclear war is a very real option unless the West doesn’t ease tensions – it is really obvious to me. In the Russian collective mind, Realpolitic that was played was heresy.
N.B. I’m not pro-Russian – there is ambivalent relationship between us and the Russians. Going back in history, we gave them the Cyrilic alphabet (sponsored by Bulgarian king), our monks brought Ortodox Christianity there (not Byzantines, it was Bulgarians like St Cyprian that converted our wild Northern cousins in the middle ages; “Old church slavonic” is the same as “Old Bulgarian” ). In their turn they liberated us from the Ottomans, but wanted to turn us into Russians which we really hated, and then they unsuccessfully attacked us in WW1 and occupied us after WW2. I’m just saying they see things differently and I’m trying to give a perspective.
Most pertinent comment here and most in need of hearing.
https://twitter.com/art100780/status/1500039988272107523?s=21
Translation:
I am the son of an officer of the Strategic Missile Forces, I live in Siberia, everything is not so simple here … At my dad’s work, the military was divided into two camps. Some support a special operation to protect the Donbass, denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine, but it’s worse with the second, they want to immediately hit Washington …
There is indeed a civilizational divide. Currently, there is not too much ‘civilization’ coming from the west.
Exhibit one is Mr. Ze who has ordered all Ukrainian males from 18-year-old to 60-year-old men to join the Ukrainian army – and then Mr. Ze departed to Poland. “Volodymyr Zelensky is dancing in heels.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uv_WWzjrUrI
Exhibit two is hostages situation in a war zone: “As was expected, Nazis [the finally acknowledged Nazi elements in the Ukraiain army] didn’t allow civilians to use humanitarian corridors opened by Russian Army because they need a human shield. … thousands upon thousands of foreign visitors and students are held hostage by Ukraine’s nazi formations. India alone has around 1500 students held hostage in Kharkov.” Sounds tragic.
cerena
“thousands upon thousands of foreign visitors and students are held hostage by Ukraine’s nazi formations” Sounds like anti-Ukraine propaganda. What is your source?
Here some testimony…
https://mobile.twitter.com/politblogme/status/1500135942551650310?cxt=HHwWjICyqaLsxtEpAAAA
Good perspective. Thanks.
We are getting more and more creative with our labels for the Borgists.
Walrus,
It’s a well reasoned suggestion. Russia must have foresaw it as an outcome when they gamed things out. Perhaps it’s an outcome they are prepared for if things must come to that. I hope things don’t get to be that bad.
https://twitter.com/chigrl/status/1499707600786665477?s=21
Knew this wouldn’t take long. Shell buying Urals crude contracts at discount. Financial speculative profits is what the guys who dominate economic policy in the US always find a way to engage. Of course knowing that speculative losses get socialized. Heads I win. Tails you lose.
Well made point.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1499976967105433600?s=21
No comment needed. I’m in agreement with Elon Musk as I’m a free speech absolutist too. Cancel culture exists because they’re weak.
https://twitter.com/jonathanturley/status/1500085923324772353?s=21
How long before there are calls to roundup ethnic Russians? We did it once with Americans of Japanese descent. Authoritarianism continues to grow in the US and the west in general. All under the rhetoric of “morality” and the “greater good”.
This is a substantially greater threat to our republic than any external threat.
Walrus, this is exactly what I am hearing from Russian-speaking analysts: Russians are done with the West. They regard the US especially as breakers of their word, hence, untrustworthy (“agreement-incapable”), without hornor, and morally degenerate”. Even Russian liberals like Medvedev are reversing course away from the West.
We can surmise that the Chinese have a similar take, but they were never Western-oriented like the Russian liberals anyway.
People in the West, and in the US especially, don’t know that a core issue for Russia in the Ukraine matter is neo-Nazism because this has been suppressed in the narrative in the US. They are not kidding when they say this is about de-Nazification and bring to justice those guilty of “genocide” in Donbass, where over 10, 000 Russian Ukrainians have been killed by the Azov Battalion forces, who view Russians as Untermenschen.
Here is an interesting article on Ukrainian nationalists and neo-Nazis by Alexander Rubinstein and Max Blumenthal, “How Ukraine’s Jewish president Zelensky made peace with neo-Nazi paramilitaries on front lines of war with Russia.”
https://thegrayzone.com/2022/03/04/nazis-ukrainian-war-russia/
It’s staggeringly awful the economic situation dawning rapidly on Ru. There will be serious knock-on commodity shortages rebounding on the west. The Peter Zeihan dude predicts famine in undeveloped areas on the order of 1 to 2 billion starvation deaths. But Ru is now essentially a ruin in short order. PayPal just terminated all services. The seizure of central bank reserves is in my opinion comparable to the British naval blockade on Germany which helped to end WWI. Putin better have one hell of a rabbit out of a hat trick on hold. I’m not seeing it. Other than sending us to the stone age, which will only result in complete pulverization of his nation in retaliation. He could try to hold various countries hostage under a nuclear gun. Absurd, but conceivable. The only thing comparable historically to what maybe pending, to my not overly educated consciousness, is the so-called Bronze age collapse of 1288 BC, which last time I checked was not thoroughly understood by historians. Happened in the Mediterranean region of Troy. Or an epic volcanic catastrophe such as Santorini and/or the Atlantis myth. Positive side effect could be carbon emissions curtailment of historical magnitude.
I’m not sure that Russia can’t feed itself and it must have made allowances for the obvious financial sanctions. The energy price increase would also have been foreseen.
The wheat price increase is supposedly a forecast caused by energy prices and Russian and Chinese fertiliser export bans.
I expect that both Russia and China will use their market positions in energy/fertilizer/technology/natural resources to advance their political agendas. So will we.
Have not heard of any night soil shortages yet, though much has been hitting the fan of late. Shall we just turn the clock back a few centuries or so, keep calm and carry on?
Reminded of my college class motto – Stay Alive Until ’65 – the year 1965; not the age.
We assumed we would be instant goners back then too, due to misbehaving adults. But that was going to be from a Cold War nuclear holocaust; not ironically the unforeseen at the time Vietnam war of attrition which did tragically erode our class of ’65 numbers.
Deap
Oh, so sad. You should have been there.
It’s not clear to me that economic warfare against Russia will have the effect of subduing her. In fact, I too would be shocked if the General Staff of the Russian Army has not anticipated these measures. The Pentagon accounts for the economic dimension, probably more than it lets on.
Russia is closer to autarky than the EU is to energy self-sufficiency, and it may be further from the precipice of economic ruin than the West as a whole. Those who follow the financial world will be aware of the dire predictions some commentators are sounding for “our side”. If this drags on for weeks it’s disadvantageous for Russia if she is merely fighting Ukraine, but it may be advantageous if she is fighting the West. (As an aside, if the General Staff is competent we should see the relief formations in their assembly areas about now.)
Drifting further into speculation, facing a protracted (non-nuclear) conflict the West will resort to increasingly authoritarian measures to stabilize our economies. I expect the WEF’s Great Reset will be substantially advanced–but a Great Reset without Russia and China rather defeats the purpose, doesn’t it?
A parting comment on protracted war: the greatest characteristic of the US Army in WW2 was its ability to learn; similarly, the Russian Army will correct any deficiencies given time, but its questionable whether the West’s armies will be able to improve, as truth and honesty are no longer Western civilizational values.
Fourth and Long,
Pay pal just dropped service in Russia? My, my people might have to start using cash. Just like Canadian truckers. Whoops, they got their assets frozen too. But at least Trudea hasn’t started spending their money yet, unlike Biden’s spending Afghanistan’s (glorious victory there, too!) money, with a rather dubious legal rationale.
The thing about rabbits, they breed like mad. Infact the asset seizures might make a bigger rabbit hop all over the reserve currency idea:
https://fortune.com/2022/03/03/russia-sanctions-central-bank-ruble-us-eu-foreign-reserves/