The Prime Minister of Israel has declared that Israel is “at war” – against exactly who is not clear, “Hamas”, “The Palestinians”, ” terrorists” take your pick.
It appears that the Palestinians (or whatever you call ) them achieved total surprise.
The one thing already clear is that Israel, assuming it wins this fight, which is probable, will exact a terrible price against them. The Gazans, whether they know it yet or not, are in a life or death struggle.
To me, the big initial question, is whether Hezbollah will attack. There is no other credible Arab force in my opinion.
Over to you…..
war here there and everywhere eh?
Who will get what they want?
-Israelis
-Azerbaijan
-South Sedan
-Trump – re-elected anyway, beyond that a fight of all proportions
-Saudis
-China
-Turkey
Who won’t get what they want?
-Lebanon
-Maldives
-Ecuador
-Mexico
-Armenia
-UK
-Russia
-US
I cannot think of all the land-grabs going on right now, but they are intensifying that is for sure!!!
Even if the Palestinians lose the conflict this time, which is almost certain, they have won. They were able to achieve complete surprise against the IDF. They overran IDF positions, dragged away IDF soldiers on video. Video has shown the world Palestinians driving around in IDF vehicles. They have destroyed sections of the fence. There have beem multiple attacks in Israel settlements, towns and cities. Hundreds of missiles were able to overwhelm the Iran Dome and rain on Israeli cities. The vaunted Israeli intelligence did not catch wind of an operation that took months to plan and involved thousands of people. Bibi, whose main sales point has been keeping Israel safe, has seen the worst debacle in decades. All of this against Hamas, who was widely seen as rather ineffective. After the spanking the IDF got in 2006 by Hizb’Allah changes were supposedly made to keep something like this from happening again. If Hamas can do something like this, the logical next question is what would Hizb’Allah do with more members, thousands who have years of combat experience, Hizb’Allah having more and better arms? It is a complete failure of Israeli intelligence and military. Even pounding Gaza into dust wont change this fact.
Stefan,
“The vaunted [5-Eyes] intelligence did not catch wind of an operation that took months to plan and involved thousands of people. [Blinken & Co.], whose main sales point has been [Middle East Peace], has seen the worst debacle in decades.”
Fixed that for you.
“There have beem multiple attacks in Israel settlements, towns and cities. ”
Yes with concurrent killing of civilians of all ages and sexes and the taking of hostages back to Gaza. Biden set the precedent of $billions in extortion payments for hostages, so expect more of same.
“Video has shown the world Palestinians driving around…” with civilian hostages. If Russians were doing so it would be called war crimes. I breathlessly await the statesments of Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib and their other Squad colleauges. Here’s one.
https://twitter.com/IlhanMN/status/1710730202353934338
zit is always pretty dumb to put someone into office who is more concerned with their pending trial than the problems facing their country. True for Bibi. True for Trump.
A country’s leader needs to be paying attention!
Don’t you have to be sentient to pay attention?
Laura,
81,000,000 ballot Biden is president. Blinken and the Obama holdovers at state, along with the woke milenial graduates from the ivy league, work for him.
This is multi dimensional chess. All of the things, or some of them, anyway,you note, are true enough. For now, I suggest. However, one could also say, that the hardliners in Israel have won. They will grab more land, using the defense in depth argument, and ‘cleanse’ the land they grabbed. Especially so in the West Bank. The ‘we won’t serve’ crowd is now doomed. So the hardliners will win there. And even the neocon Never Trumpers may become more sanguine about Trump. So lots of winners. And weak and ineffective as Biden is, he won’t let Hezbollah MATERIALLY threaten Israel. Not in an election season. So yes, Hamas scored a devastating, brilliant short term victory. Let’s see how it tastes in their mouths two years from now.
The Israeli hardliners may win a near-term tactical victory (although it’s likely to be a Pyrrhic one). On a strategic level they’re done – there is no way that a society operating in the way they intend can retain the people and the companies they need in order to run a modern economy.
I think the end state if the hardliners do win is nothing more than yet another religious dictatorship (just a Jewish one, this time).
‘Short term” is right.
In particular, you can beat IRON DOME by launching lots of Rockets but what happens tomorrow, when the Israelis still have IRON DOME and you do not have enough rockets to degrade it?
Sadat went to War in ’73, knowing he could not win, but might make Israel see it had to make peace with at least one front line state,
Idon’t see this as offering any long term advantage,
JM,
I just read on Telegram that the only Iron Dome units which were stocked with ammunition were the ones guarding the big cities and that the units which guarded smaller towns in the south such as Ashkelon didn’t have ammunition because of shortages and resultant husbanding to more populated places. Forgot to bookmark so sorry, no link.
Frankly, if your plan somehow needs to saturate Iron Dome so that you can fire missiles freely for six hours or so, a temporary removal of Iron Dome functionality would be quite enough. (I have no idea what they had in mind in terms of a plan, but at the very least both Hezbollah and Iran just got a valuable data point.)
A valuble data point, so long as you have enough rockets, missiles and artillery rounds . . .
Better to take out the systems,
What are the odds that the powers that be in Israel arranged, on the sly, for this attack to occur with such seeming surprise and initial success?
Motives: a) To unify the state in light of the highly divisive rioting over the role of their judiciary. b) To drum up action against Iran (it’s already put about that the IRGC are behind this attack).
I say the odds are very very good, prohibitively so. I don’t believe for one fraction of a second that Hamas was able to achieve such effective surprise as reported in the media. Why? Several reasons which most people here will know, but primarily: No way in hades did Israeli and American intelligence agencies and their assets get caught napping like this .. except in a fairy tale. Someone wanted this badly. Figuring out who will be interesting.
Conclusion – expect further “surprises.”
I am no Bibi fan but this is way beyond…this is Putin and Chechnya territory. I don’t believe it was a “false flag” operation. Neither was Pearl Harbor–hubris, carelessness, inattention all happen in history it’s the “sh–t happens” school of historical analysis.
TTG –
“..Entirely believable ..”
Some people believe in very unlikely things, I’m not one of them.
“Theoretically possible” – I can go with that, but not “entirely believable,” not by a very long shot.
After 911 we found out rather quickly that the authorities of several nations knew something big and bad was in the works. Then we found that the FBI had been tracking nearly all 19 of the bastards. Very prestigious people in government and academia don’t buy the standard explanation. I’m not one of the extreme nuts who tend to the MIHOP idea or any of it’s outrageous variants, but LIHOP? Yes, that seems irrefutable. (Let it happen or Make it happen .. on purpose).
F&L,
In retrospect, 9/11 seems obvious, but only in retrospect. There’s always something big and bad in the works, usually several things. I shouldn’t be surprised that you believe there’s some hidden hand or elaborate conspiracy behind everything that happens. Here it probably should have been obvious that Hamas would strike back spectacularly after years of violent oppression… at least in retrospect it is.
Planning and preparing for intelligence and military operations under the noses of a very competent opposition is something I’ve trained for both as an SF officer and a clan intel officer. I’ve also done so under the noses of very competent opposition. Yes, it can be done and it is entirely believable to those in the know.
It’s accepted now by historians that Pearl Harbor was not a surprise to the highest authorities. It sure was a surprise to most people but not to some codebreakers, and not to FDR. People still get blasted for saying so, and they will continue getting dragged over the coals for a long time, but that’s just the way it is. I suppose you accept the Warren commission, the sinking of the Maine and the phony lies about the gulf Tonkin incident too. How about WMD in Iraq and that Polish troops fired on the Nazis so they had to invade? Virgin birth? Chosen People? Bigfoot, UFOs, Cigarettes aren’t bad for your health?
“I Dreamed I Conquered Venice in my Maidenform Bra.” That’s different, I can believe that someone had a dream. But I sure can’t believe that this incursion into Israel wasn’t known about by some people other than the actual perpetrators. I’m absolutely certain it was known and allowed to go forward (Let it happen on purpose) if not actively promoted.
Your theory that the US authorities pre-knew about the coming Pearl Harbor attack and LIHOPed it on purpose for various reasons, and your theory that the Israel authorities pre-knew about this coming Hamas attack and LIHOPed it on purpose for various reasons offers an intriguing template against which to measure other historical events which we have always taken for granted were big surprises to the target of the event.
Could you explain how the Nazi German authorities actually pre-knew about the coming D Day Normandy Landing in advance, and LIHOPed it on purpose for various reasons? What would have been their reasons for doing so?
Different clue –
You’re being sarcastic but ok.
There are mysteries about why the Gs didn’t defend the beaches better, why such poor preparation. There were ongoing attempts to murder Hitler, one very nearly successful, because the same portion of the G leadership knrw they were lost and that they’d be utterly destroyed. Factions who wanted peace negotiations. Being overrun by the Soviets was a horror due to the expected savagery and revenge for their well known eastern atrocities/war crimes. Getting the Americans led by ethnically Dutch FDR and ethnically German Eisenhower was desirable compared to rule under slavic Russians and Georgians Stalin & Beria – remember the third Reich was the quintessential racist state.
I’m not going to waste my time further with a project of mockery of my ideas but a competent storyteller with research could easily show you how it was possible but was foiled due to the savagery of the retribution that Hitler wreaked on the gang of officers who nearly killed him. I’d be surprised if there weren’t ideas and more – actual attempts to effect a French landing more rather than less easily. After all, what was really behind Hess’s flight to Scotland? We still don’t know as far as I know and if in fact Churchill or some other Brits were of a mind to do a deal with a faction of the Nazis we’re not likely to ever know. Ike had to fight Churchill tooth and nail to do Normandy rather than Churchill’s hairbrained scheme to invade up through the easy via a landing near Trieste. That such a difficult landing as Normandy.was in fact accomplish has always been considered remarkable no so much for the combat techniques used which in fact were very impressive but for it’s secrecy – that it was in fact a secret was quite difficult to believe for many people. I’ve seen several film treatments in which it certainly.was anticipated as almost obviously going to happen – why was Rommel laying beach obstacles and called back at a crucial moment and then killed by his own secret service? Presumably he was in on the botched job at the Wolf’s lair, but really? Maybe he wasn’t, maybe someone wanted the landing to go forward – someone other than the Western allies, or the Soviets too for that matter who badly wanted a second front. So it’s not even slightly absurd to suspect funny business.
Lumping every historical event together: 9/11, the Maine, Gulf of Tonkin, Pearl Harbor, big tobacco, Bigfoot is a very lazy argument. Red herrings, false equivalencies, etc. This is a serious discussion about a particular event….right?
F&L,
It’s entirely believable that Israeli and American intelligence agencies and their assets got caught napping. Hamas played by Moscow rules in their planning and preparation, nothing electronic and very little written and then in code. They used tight compartmentalization and employed mission command. Their counterintelligence efforts and personnel security programs (PSP) were in high gear.
It worked this time, but I doubt it could be repeated.
I’d agree. This seems to have the attributes of a significant land swarm attack with little sustainment and support.
I doubt there were too many prior indicators such a concentrating vehicles and ramped up ammunition and fuel production / stockpiling. The attackers are carrying light gear and not weighed down with food/water/ammo and their vehicles (in their videos) seem to lack fuel jerrycans. Plenty are just walking.
Their usual cross border raids seem to be far less than platoon strength; this one may have numbered several hundred (based on Israeli casualties) with their eager follow ups being as surprised as the Israelis.
I’d suggest that the tide may have already turned, although the next phase will be within Gaza; hiding hostages will be a lot more difficult than hiding the planning of this raid.
However, someone closer has a differing view:
https://twitter.com/efenigson/status/1710716137044922585
What are the odd? Zero.
Many Internet writers, both anonymous and not, are arguing that Mossad LIHOP or MIHOP.
Example:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2023-10-08/no-hamas-invasion-was-not-israeli-intelligence-failure
Quote:
Bibi Netanyahu was in real political trouble before this conveniently timed invasion. Now, or at least this is the hope, Israelis will rally around the flag for some patriotic Palestinian ass-kicking and their Prime Minister’s imminently obvious corruption will be, at least temporarily, forgotten, if not forgiven.
Meanwhile, Israeli intelligence, rather than being punished for its “failure,” will use its “failure” as a pretext to garner more funding and more authorities for itself so as to prevent another such “failure.” The Hamas invasion was only a “failure” if one believes the goal of Mossad is to protect Israeli civilians rather than accrue more power for itself.
At a bare minimum, Mossad knew of the attack beforehand and let it happen for political convenience. More likely, in my view, is that it actively facilitated the attack.
End Quote.
How did the vaunted CIA do?
‘Vaunted’ by precisely whom?
My guess is Israel will be at war with the Palestinians. A second guess is Hezbollah will stay out of it. They like to engage the Israelis in battles that are not of an existential nature. Where each Israeli death is lamented on the front pages of local newspapers and people lament ‘settle this’! This fight will be different. This is an existential fight. If Hezbollah gets in it it be all the more so….Hezbollah will think long and hard before getting in this because if the “third temple’ is threatened with collapse all weapons will be on the table…and Hezbollah should know what that means.
Jstan
Hezbollah is also building up their Long Range Precision Strike capability – day by day, month by month, year by year. The longer that Hezbollah can postpone any fight the better they will do in such a fight. If you are a thirteen year old thinking about fighting a thirty year old, why not wait a few years until you are much stronger?
Then maybe that is an argument for the 30 y.o.to stunt the growth of the 13 y.o. Here and now
Jstan
Israel has been putting great effort into stunting Hezbollah’s Long Range Precision Strike program with some results. But the program continues to advance.
The tone of the statements Hamas’s leader made about this…
https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-hamas-rockets-airstrikes-tel-aviv-11fb98655c256d54ecb5329284fc37d2
…gives me the impression this is a “last great act of defiance”. They have lost all hope (for understandable reasons) and have determined to go down in a blaze of “glory”.
Mark Logan,
I agree with your assessment. Hamas sees they are alone in the region and increasingly pressured at home. Any brutality against Palestinians is ignored by the world. They decided to die on their feet now rather than die on their knees at the hands of the Israeli security services later.
Saudi israel normalisation is close,so a possible spanner in the works.
Israel caught napping? I doubt it.
However all the promises Trumpade made and extracted could be worrying for Russia and the Saudi’s if he is not elected.Reneging on a deal can be dangerous business.
One thing I know for sure.Putin is praying Trump is reelected because serious options await him.So to Bibi.Now is the time for hard bargaining.
Saudi israel normalisation is close,so a possible spanner in the works.
Israel caught napping? I doubt it.
————-
Someone with a brain. Finally.
The Saudi treaty would be interesting to see come about…but I wouldn’t trust the Saudis too far. They are not Israels friend nor ours. They are deceivers.
More likely . the Israeli Intel guys did not think Hamas could pull this off, based om 2014 and 2021, and the attempts to hadge the risk did not match Hamas’s greater proficiency.
Both Hezbollah (in 2006) and Hamas (in 2008-09 and 2012 have pulled off operations of unexpected competance.
Nonsense ‘brutality towards the Palestinians’ is ignored by the world. They have more attention, more recognition, and more money than people in Rwanda, South Sudan, Burma, Nicaragua, Armenia, and after all the attention and money they commit spectacularly violent act of terror. Perhaps justified, from their perspective, but guaranteed to alienate those in the West.
Israel intelligence taking lessons from the US IC?
Well no not exactly. A better guess might be that they infected all the phones and computers used by US Intel and thereby led them astray. Or .. the tapes of Jeffrey Epstein have given them a stone cold lock on the American leadership, not that all the billionaire money doesn’t help a bit.
Must have taken weeks or months to plan and train for. The hang gliders alone must have practised for some time.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/66168
All points to a long prepared attack. It was picked up neither by Israeli Intelligence nor American nor European.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/10/israel-war-middle-east-jake-sullivan/675580/
https://youtu.be/_-qxXlHDDB0?t=3535
(Links noted by “Norwegian” and “Benildred” on MOA. ) It was a genuine surprise until the very last minute. For such a large attack involving so many people this was a stunning Intelligence failure. Yet for all Sullivan’s relaxed attitude this had been a region in turmoil for some time.
Exactly. Stunning failure.
The US and, apparently much vaunted Israeli, ICs suck. Maybe they should start concentrating more on external threats and other real intelligence work as opposed to propagandizing their internal populations.
BTW, Those are clearly videos of training. So Hamas had set up a training camp with kill houses for the gliders to land amongst, etc. and prepared its troops for combat there. Hamas OPSEC is excellent. All of that going on, coordinating, assembling 5,000 rockets, glider training, amphibious assault troops, etc and the Israelis were totally blind sided. Lol.
But, but, but we have SIGINT and AI and it cost a lot! No one can escape our web! LOL.
Eric Newhill,
Are you sure those were training videos? This morning I heard a report of professional videographers accompanying the attack forces. They even thought of that info ops angle.
You’re right to scoff at our reliance on SIGINT, AI and other techie things. Those things are near useless if you go old school. Plus they can be deliberately spoofed. So can human sources.
TTG,
The video of Hamas “airborne” troops assaulting some cinder block buildings, one with a Star of David, sure looks like a training course to me. Some of the buildings don’t have roofs, which is what a training “kill house” looks like (action can be observed by trainers on a platform, etc).
That doesn’t mean that Hamas didn’t launch hang gliders into Israel. Just that the vids I’ve seen appear to be prepared in advance from training exercises. Your mileage may differ.
Training exercises – very good call.
Fakes for propaganda purposes filmed on secret movie sets in some desert in Israel or Utah- even better call.
The giveaway – the Stars of David on the reputed targets. Utterly unnecessary for training, in fact the height of silliness. But essential for duping the uncomprehending masses in the peanut galleries.
Brilliant powers of observation Eric. I’m impressed.
Eric Newhill,
I’ve seen that footage of the air assault into what does look like a deliberately constructed training area. Even the piece of border wall appears to be a training aid. Another point is that other than the airborne jihadis there are no other people, Israeli or Palestinian in the clip.That short clip is part of the only footage I know of showing an airborne invasion. The eight second clip may have been included in released propaganda footage just so they can say they attacked from air, land and sea. No air assault may have taken place at all. My guess is that the clip was filmed at a training site outside of Gaza, maybe at a Hezbollah site in Lebanon. The entire clip is at 1:42 to 1:50 in the link.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTfmqUUUYSI&t=102s
Eric Newhill,
It does appear that there was an air element to the Hamas assault. Found another video taken at that music festival/dance party near the Gaza border showing powered paragliders coming in. From what I see, even festival security was lacking. Apparently we have more security at our county fairs than Israelis have along a hostile border. Their arrogance is what allowed this to happen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZ83Q7tM4A0
Eric –
You’ve just inadvertently made the best case yet for why I don’t believe a word of the “total intelligence failure” thesis.
TTG –
I hope you understand that while I disagree with your confidence in how this was pulled off sans apprehension on the part of Israeli and “5-eyes” intelligence that I’m also by disagreeing paying your profession a compliment – I think it’s too good to be fooled this way unless it wants to be fooled.
Both of you –
I think by quickly arriving at the conclusion that Israeli Intel was caught with its pants off you’re actually enjoying one of the vanishingly few opportunities offered by the present state of affairs for you to take some delight in socking it to the almighty Israelis. Criticising Israel, for Americans is an ultimate taboo. It shouldn’t be but it is. So it’s a vicarious pleasure to be able to safely say “well, where’s all that famous peerless intelligence capability we hear about every day of every year for our entire lives? Where!? Nowhere, hahaha.” No sane person can blame anyone for enjoying the pleasure of safely saying that, especially in our era of outright thought control.
This attack and especially it’s ongoing aftermath serve their agendas of complete riddance of the Palestinian population and destruction of Iran (or at least Iran’s war fighting capacity) only too well. And it shores up the present Netanyahu administration which is turning their country into an outright dictatorship because he will be hailed as a victorious saviour. They are (were) more than willing to lose a few hundred people for those long term goals. They are led by arrogant, self-righteous elitists just like we are who think that everyone else is lowgrade trash – their concern for human life is zero unless it’s their own.
F&L,
Your faith in the omnipotence of the IC is flattering, but misplaced. We’re fully capable of dropping the ball, missing things and just getting it wrong as any other human institution. The same goes for any other country’s IC.
Why would the Palestinians want to stage an attack now beyond out of a deep sense of desperation? They were witnessing the advent of a full on alliance between Saudi Arabia and Israel. This alliance has been sub rosa for many years, but it was about to become open and formal… and quite possibly fatal to the Palestinian cause. Iran saw the same thing. Both wanted to throw a monkey wrench into this developing alliance. If you yearn for a conspiracy theory, here it is. This is an Iranian-Palestinian effort to disrupt the Israeli-Saudi alliance.
Here is my conspiracy theory. That Iranian-Palestinian effort was given a greenlight by Putin in return for Iranian arms support.
leith,
Given the recent meetings between Lavrov and Haniyeh in Moscow, that’s as good a theory as any. Maybe better considering Moscow’s reliance on Teheran’s support.
Probably off site somewhere.esCapetown.I know a guy who used hang glide with his testicles hanging free through a pouch release mechanism.Evidently they act as a gyroscope and keep you on the straight and narrow
Apologies. Typing error. “Bemildred” above.
I would,suggest there were two general schools of thought in the wake of the Pearl Harbor attacks. First was ‘how? Who screwed up? Whose is to blame?’ And so on. Second school was a simple, ‘how do we kill the Empire of Japan and teach them a lesson they will never forget!’. Let’s s see how this drama plays out. I know which school of thought I would, enthusiastically and ruthlessly embrace if I was in Israel.
Do you seriously believe Pearl Harbor was entirely a surprise to the people in the know? If so maybe you can give me Santa’s cellphone number, pretty please? It not only wasn’t a surprise, it was deeply and devoutly wished for.
if you can be so definitive about the origins, and alleged, knowledge, of the Pearl Harbor attack, an issue that has been fiercely debated, and researched, and written about for over 80 years, by scholars, and hacks of numerous nations, perhaps you already have Santa’s number.
Dennis Ross has long experience with Israel and its relations with Palestinians.
He gave an extended interview with Politico trying to contextualize Hamas’s attack on Israel:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/10/07/israel-hamas-attack-00120498
You mean Israel’s lawyer
This is a convenient turn of events for Teflon Bibi. He has been having serious political problems and now he is a wartime leader. I’m not floating any conspiracy theories because I think Shin Bet is professional enough not to do or allow anything that benefits a politician over what is best for the country. But Bibi is going to be the (at least short term) winner in all this.
Gun ownership in Israel is 2%. If they don’t exceed US gun ownership after this attack in a year they should at least switch religions.
Have you paid attention to the attacks by the lunatic hyper-fundamentalist orthodox settlers? If everyone over there had an automatic rifle there would be no Palestinian problem because they’d have killed them all long ago.
The Nikki Haley solution.
Revising name to: Hickie Nailey
Because … it’s better in the Bahamas, Hickie. It is.
Inspired by a Pierce Brosnan film? https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=theworld+is+not+enough&atb=v300-1&iax=videos&ia=videos&iai=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Db0AxZJGeajo
Where was the training done? Certainly not in Gaza.
Bigger issues are:
The megaswarm of three to five thousand rockets in just 24 hours made Iron Dome useless despite the marketing hype. Hezbollah and others are taking notice.
Minister of National Security, Idiot Ben Gvir, needs to man up and fall on his sword for the intel failure. But Bibi will probably keep him in for political reasons, Gvir has the support of close to a million Jewish settlers living on Palestinian land. Bibi will kick out IC folks further down the food chain that have no political support.
It was idiotic IMO to put a kibbutz just a few klicks outside the Gaza Strip fence.
Thanks for the clip. Glad you were aware of it.
BTW, it can be obtained directly from YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0AxZJGeajo
Informative piece from Russian newspaper BZGLYAD (Viewpoint). Solid info as opposed to the watered down soup in US papers. They almost convince me that TTG might have a point in that this was actually doable. Other articles at the same source discuss the severe disarray in Israeli security and Intel due to the long judicial squabble and the fact that actual factions have formed within them. Article is autotranslated within a second or two.
How the Arabs were able to deceive the Israeli army and intelligence services.
Palestinian factions undermine myths surrounding Israeli army and intelligence
https://tinyurl.com/ycyh5x42
Israeli defense points are a barracks behind a plastic fence with a medieval tower on which there is a machine gun. It is controlled automatically from the barracks, just like on a warship. Looks technologically advanced. But an ordinary commercial quadcopter drops a grenade on a machine gun turret – and there is no longer any defense of the “fortified” point. The Palestinians then enter the barracks and shoot the sleeping soldiers. And so on along the entire border of Gaza. In total, the Palestinians killed up to half of the “fortified” posts in just an hour.
If Hezbollah and the PA were to get involved, Israel would have a large problem. They are, functionally surrounded.
But the Israelis have had that problem since the War of Independance. The Arabs have diveregent and competing interests, which dooms their efforts.
Hezbollah, which has a very able Artillery arm, could make this unwinnable for Israel, if he went to war. However, since it distrusts Hamas almost as much as it distrusts Israel, Hezbollah will limit its efforts to “supportive” demonstartions, instead of what it did in the 2006 War.
The IDF learned a lot about MOUT from its first incursion into Gaza in 2007-’08, as it showed in ’14. Then, they demonstrated Patton’s dictum that “Fixed fortifications are monuments to human stupidity.”
This was an intelligence failure. However, Hamas’s attack won’t really move the ball without coordination with the rest of the Arabs. This will be wasted lives and effort.
Hezbollah is Lebanese while Hamas is Palestinian. The former has good leadership, the latter is corrupt througout. Along with all the intel failure is the zero coverage of what happened at the Al-Aqsa Mosque on the 5th. Col. Lang had long commented on Isreali cultural decline, this (the 5th) is one more example of that.
The Israelis put too much faith in their new 1.1 billion dollar hi tech Iron Wall. And that’s in addition to the older concrete walls and earth berms around Gaza.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-iron-wall-gaza-palestinians-siege
It may have stopped individual terrorists, but it was just a speed bump for Hamas’s Al-Qassam Brigade.
https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1710980029977424295
600 dead now being reported, at least 2156 wounded, plus 170 captured per Israeli sources. Complacency by Bibi and Ben-Gvir killed those 600.
Regarding the so-called ‘intelligence failure’: Did everyone in Mossad, Shin Bet, and Haman completely drop the ball? Or were there indications that were ignored at higher levels – like what happened here on 9/11?
659 latest just reported. Do you believe those reports of 200 shot at the music festival, face down with hands tied behind backs? Did you see the Highway of Death? I could not figure out how that damage was accomplished. Looks like a bad day in Vietnam.
Relevant links if you have Telegram videos are there;
https://t.me/vizioner_rf/5975
#эскалация
Video of the “death road” in southern Israel from the city of Reim, where the ill-fated, destroyed Nature Party music festival, dedicated to establishing peaceful ties between Jews and Arabs, took place 🤦♂️
https://t.me/vchkogpu/42439
The moment of terrorist attack on a music festival. Its participants were killed and taken hostage.
Re the Intel failure. No kidding. But I’m not entirely buying it yet. Neither is this very pleasant woman Efrat Fenigson, who was in the IDF Intel 25 yrs ago. She mentions your trust in the fancy new wall, and more interesting – that guard forces were pulled off of the Gaza area not long before this Oct 7 attack, and placed into the West Bank area.
Israel-Hamas War & The Tough Questions: Efrat Fenigson.
https://youtu.be/fruIAzCQ_ms
F&L,
That “Highway of Death” looks more like a highway of abandoned cars. I bet a lot of those cars belonged to that mass of party goers fleeing across the desert, which is a frightening sight in itself. If the jihadis took the time to tie the hands of 200 party goers, I would think they’d be taken back to Gaza as hostages.
In the video on the left hand side there are plenty of vehicles blown to bits or destroyed in ways I personally don’t understand.
Great news for Nikki Haley.
She claims that appeasement, ‘giving’ Iran $6B, caused the attack. To her, anything short of nuking Iran is appeasement. The stars are lining up for her. I preemptively condemn her nuclear attack on Iran. She is the most vicious and insensitive of the Republican candidates.
Are we looking at an Operation Eagle Claw redux? I’m referring to the conspiracy theories that said that Ollie North or similar agents worked with Reagan’s team to sabotage Carter’s rescue attempt the better to win in 1980. It seems to be an old American tradition – see the work of Kissinger and Nixon to foil the Vietnam peace talks in Paris in 1968. She is a scary lady but does she have what it takes to play those games? I doubt it but don’t know.
Haley’s thinking is incredibly shallow and flippant, she sticks to slogans (as do most Neocons). She is giving the 1936 speech … ‘appeasement, emboldens our enemies’. So tossing out the idea that Iran masterminded this attack, is not great gamesmanship.
To add, I am speculating that a President Haley will find an excuse to attack Iran in the same way the GWB found one to attack Iraq. She’s obsessed w/Iran.
She’ll listen to the options and adopt the most extreme Pentagon proposal which would be tactical nuclear weapons.
My own take on Haley is that she’s an opportunist who has figured out that you get ahead politically in America by worshipping Israel. Her stuff on Iran is simply going along with that. She doesn’t have any authentic belief in anything other than herself and coming out topdog. For which she is happy to be Israel’s poodle.
I see a few “analysts” on the internet suggesting that Hamas deployed NATO or US weapons sold by Ukrainians on the black market. Anyone see any proof of that? I don’t.
The Hamas rockets do seem to have been more accurate and effective than the usual home made junk they’ve launched at Israel in the past. Maybe that’s just a false impression that I formed too quickly. What were the rockets? Where did they come from? Manufacturer?
Eric Newhill,
The launchers were made in Gaza. There’s no reason not to believe the rockets were also made there. All you need are a good set of instructions and the raw materials. Recently Israel intercepted a load of explosives from Türkiye heading to Gaza. That alone should have been enough reason not to denude the Gaza border of troops.
TTG,
You’re probably correct. I see no sane reason to politicize this into something to do with the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
Interesting that Hamas hasn’t developed attack drones; everyone else has.
Did you see the film of the Merkava tank destroyed by a drone? It may not contradict what you say but it seemed quite real. Possibly a one-off.
F&L,
I saw that and wondered why it was the only one. It may be something from a video game. There was another video of two helos being shot down and that turned out to be from a video game.
TTG,
It wasn’t the only one. Possibly 5 were taken out or captured. (I’m uncovering lots of new stuff. This attack turns out to be mainly the work of IRGC, I’ll post some links later). Photos of drones are being published too, drones which haven’t been used yet with launch crews standing at the ready and people wonder why.
Six tanks per Finnish OSINT analyst Emil Kastelhelmi. Plus 17 APCs.
No indication of whether they were taken out by drones – or destroyed on the ground by Al-Qassam.
IF Emil’s count is correct, then it lends credence to the claim that 80% of the IDF forces there had been sent north to the West Bank.
https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1710689546164183425
Israel will overcome this incident, as it has always done.
The aftermath will be most interesting. It will require a great deal of brains and know-how on the part of Israeli politicians and public opinion. So I’m worried.
An all out guerilla war inside Gaza will be a horror for Israeli troops and the inhabitants too obviously. The alternative is what – outright genocide or transportation. Will the US and EU allow that? How numerous is Hamas / don’t know but Gaza is 2.5 million and most support Hamas.
F&L,
“Will the US and EU allow that?”
Are they going to stop with with words and cash like the used with Hamas?
Fred –
The US has an aircraft carrier group in the area as we speak. I think the EU will do the gay pride festival consulting because “Knock knock , who’s there?”
The US Treasury that’s who, ” really, is that why you’re bending over?”
More seriously – to simplify, Iran just sacrificed a pawn – the Palestinians, who are literally toast now or at least the ones in Gaza. The question is .. will they sacrifice their other pawn – Hezbollah? Gen Barry McCaffery very sagaciously brandishes his Aircraft Carrier battle group for the nice lady on MSNBC because he knows that’s the only likely way to keep Hezbollah at bay with high certainty and prevent a 2 front war facing Israel. Scott Ritter wisely says ok maybe but you’re thinking short term, the US is bankrupt and no longer can land 750,000 troops in the gulf. Peter Zeihan says the days of the USN bacon saving are over, they only send MEUs now to the gulf, not the 2 Aircraft Carrier battle groups of yore:
Deglobalization: The US Navy’s withdrawal as Global Protector – Peter Zeihan
https://youtu.be/RZ0IUCMpgEE
I’ll take a shot of that whiskey now if you don’t mind ..
Free article is an ok overview. Haaretz is better but requires $ub$cription.
October 7: Israel’s four-fold blunder
The first blunder is in intelligence, the second is how the border was breached, the third is the ease with which hostages were taken into Gaza and the fourth blunder is the IDF’s slow reaction
Nahum Barnea | published:14:06
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/h1005d0k116
Only 2 comments. One says that all of Gaza is booby-trapped and therefore deadly for ground troops. Disinfo looking to do carpet bombing? Don’t know.
F&L –
The primary blunder was “~70% of IDF forces supposed to be in regions adjacent to Gaza were deployed to the West Bank b/c of Netanyahu’s coalition partners”. According to a prof at the Middle East Institute.
Another major screwup was Israel’s mistaken overconfidence in a hi-tech, sensor and camera-laden fence; and their self-assurance that Iron Dome would protect against rocket attacks. Overly relying on technology is a lesson the US needs to learn. History tells us that there is eventually a way to counter every new hi-tech weapon.
A third mistake was Netanyahu stuffing his cabinet with neer-do–wells from religious conservative political parties, many who are sponsoring and supporting illegal settlements in the West Bank. Israel needs a War Cabinet now, not a bunch of radical fanatics.
Back in 2008-09, the IDF foray into Gaza went faaaar south, but the IDF improved its MOUT TTPs and did better in ’14,
Has Hamas gotten better at this? Time will tell.
This seems like an insane thing for Hamas – as the governing party of Gaza – to do. They cannot be dumb enough to imagine that they could defeat or conquer Israel on their own. Do they think that other anti-Israeli forces will join in? Hezbollah, maybe, but others here (see above) have stated good reasons that this is unlikely. No State actor would risk the future habitability of their land to attack Israel (because, Nukes).
Israel will push Hamas back inside Gaza quickly, and bomb the crap out of the whole area (that’s already begun). There will be much finger-pointing among Israeli political Parties, leading to even more destruction of Gaza’s pitiful civilian infrastructure. The IDF has already said it will “take control” of Gaza; to do that, they’re gonna hafta pave it.
Hamas must know that this is the only possible result of their attack. There is no way they can expect to “win”.
Unless they expect to “win” in the way that 9/11 was ultimately something of a victory for Al Qaida: by leading their enemy to destroy their own society.
Israel has different internal tensions than the USA, so its path to self-destruction would not be the same as ours (IMO, we crossed the Rubicon from Republic to National Security State with the invasion of Iraq and the Patriot Act).
I can picture two distinct problems which would lead to the decline of Israel:
1) internal conflict caused by the exemption of Orthodox Jews from military service. As Israel falls further into being a Bunker State, those who get drafted will resent those who don’t. And eventually, there will be fewer & fewer of the former, and more & more of the latter…
2) loss of external support, as citizens of Western Democracies become repulsed by the cruelty with which Israel treats its Muslim “subjects”.
Both of these are already underway, but both are likely to be exacerbated by Israels inevitable [over-?]reaction to Hamas’ attack.
I don’t have any evidence that this long-game strategy was Hamas’ motivation for attacking Israel like this, right now. It seems awfully bloody-minded; it means sacrificing possibly hundreds of thousands of their own people for an uncertain future gain. OTOH, it’s easy to imagine that they see no other path toward any other better future for themselves and their people, given current trends in the Israeli government…
Excellent points. I’ll paste this translation of a Sergey Markov post just now on Telegram. Notice his “if.” The music festival massacre truly is so extreme it makes you wonder if it happened. It’s worse than those “Red Army” airport massacres of the late 60s-early 70s. Anyway, Markov has a good point, it may lead to taking off the gloves in a really big way.
I can’t find it but there’s a reputed confession out of a captured Hamas fighter who says they were sure they’d be caught and never expected the attack to work. Don’t know what it means, he may be a very lowly recruit chosen as fodder.
Your questions stand. What was Hitler thinking when he launched Barbarossa? Historians say he was certain he’d “kick in the door” and the SU would collapse inside of 6 months. Most people thought WW1 wouldn’t last long. People tell themselves comforting lies and practice denial.
https://t.me/logikamarkova/8542
If Hamas militants actually killed and tortured 260 music festival participants, including many foreigners, this changes the war dramatically.
One can understand the logic of Hamas – to take civilians hostage in order to exchange them for their own from prison. But killing hundreds of just festival participants? This is the madness of hatred. If all this is confirmed, Hamas and the Palestinian movement as a whole will lose the sympathy that it has had in Europe all these years. Moreover, among the festival participants there were citizens of almost all European countries.
And then Europe, which is still the leader in shaping world public opinion, will turn a blind eye to the methods by which the Israeli army will carry out the “Final Solution to the Hamas issue in the Gaza Strip.” And the whole world will accept the most brutal cleansing of the Gaza Strip.
The massacre of music festival participants becomes the main event of the war and the eve of mass bloody cleansing of the Gaza Strip. A crime that has no justification. Hamas will never be able to justify itself. It will end.
Something that fighter pilots say is something along the lines of “if you start seeing losing cues, start doing something else.” Gaza’s situation is a losing one, as is Palestine’s situation in general. Especially with an Israeli-Saudi alliance on the verge of formalization. Forcing the Israelis into occupying the place would put Israel on a path to serious problems, which is the reason that they left the place in the first place. I guess we’ll see if that “something else” gives the Palestinians an improved chance, though with the brutality of the attack that Hamas did, I doubt it.
Thomas,
Hamas definitely tried something else and it will probably lead to it’s destruction. Then Israel may be forced to deal with the Palestinian Authority as it will be the sole representative of the Palestinian people.
Fatah didn’t win that election in Gaza, that was Hamas. I wonder which of the “Palestinian” people actually voted for either. What kind of service did leaders of either provide those people?
Given the Israelis’ propensity to deceive, I find their claim of being surprised unconvincing. Some of the conflict videos I have seen seem off. The bot swarm of outrage on social media also seems coordinated. The coordination of the homemade videos and social media has established unverified claims as facts.
What I do know for certain is that it is time to mow the grass. Frankly the Israelis have done too good of job of pacifying the Palestinians. The Israelis have been provoking for the past few years with no success. With 24 hour surveillance, controlling who and what comes and goes in and out Gaza, and a society that profiles Palestinians makes the surprise claim absurd. The end game is nearly here. This “surprise” social media viral attack may give the Israelis the cover to exterminate the Palestinians in Gaza once and for all.
Did anyone see what happened on the 5th?
https://www.newarab.com/news/over-800-israeli-settlers-storm-al-aqsa-compound-sukkot
Fred,
And that’s only the most recent provocation. Settler attacks may be the reason a lot of the troops were pulled from the Gaza border to the West Bank.
Yup. Religious war. Colonel Lang never tired of warning us we did not get the mindset at all. And he was right.
A complex operation. Hamas demonstrated command and control capabilities not heretofore evident. Hamas seems to have adapted tactics worked out in practice in Ukraine, not to mention new technologies such as FPV drones.
What will Israel do?
It was a one and done attack. Not too complicated and certainly not up to the demands of a sustained offensive. It should have picked up by the Israelis, but they had the wrong focus. Happens, like on 9/11/2021 in the US.
All honor and pride based and not steeped in a long term strategy; in other words, mere simple terrorism. Any angry Jihadi group could have pulled it off. The opec seems impressive, but the actual attack not so much. Fire a bunch of rockets, fly some maniacs in on hang gliders and kill or capture a bunch of kids at a music festival. Not Clausewitz level planning.
Now the Israelis will pummel the idiot Palestinians into the dust. There is no phase 2 of their silly operation. Their own people will suffer even more.
This is their Tet Offensive.
The Vietnamese lost that battle – they too had no “Phase 2” – but they won the war as a result of that One and Done attack.
Dream on. This was nothing like Tet.
In the specifics, no, of course not.
But in the INTENT, and in its IMPACT, sorry, the Tet Offensive is the correct analogy.
There will be a fundamental change in the way in which every party seeks to “manage” the issue of Israeli oppression of the Palestinians.
There is no going back to the status-quo, just as the writing was on the wall after the Tet Offensive.
Here is the lesson from history that concerns me:
Google this phrase:
Osama bin Laden towers of Lebanon
The top result contains this:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/osama-bin-laden-warns-america/#:~:text=%22While%20I%20was%20looking%20at,and%20women%2C%22%20he%20said.
(That is from one of several websites that have preserved bin Laden’s statement, in one translation or another.)
Now compare what the IAF did to the apartment towers in Beirut in 1982
to what it is doing to apartment towers in Gaza in 2023.
In 1982,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Beirut
—
Now, in 2023,
I can certainly appreciate
the pain in Israel,
its desire for vengeance,
and the desire to either
teach Hamas a lesson or to somehow
destroy its future capabilities.
But will that not sow the same desire for vengeance
that the pain inflicted on Lebanon in 1982
caused in bin Laden?
There is an old expression “Sowing dragon’s teeth”.
Not a good idea.
I think America needs to tread carefully in the Israel/Palestine conflict.
Keith Harbaugh,
There’s really no need for America to tread there at all. Israel is fully capable of exacting all the vengeance she desires. We do not need to help her. While the plight of the Palestinians is something we should be concerned about, the deliberate slaughter of civilians on a massive scale is terrorism and we cannot condone it. The Israelis will no doubt commit similar slaughter of civilians in the name of vengeance. This is something they both will have to deal with without us.
So what will Israel do next? What you might condone doesn’t interest me much.
drifter,
They will seek bloody vengeance on the Gazans with the aim of destroying Hamas and cowing the remaining Gazans into submission. That should be obvious.
Obvious yes. Just want to see it coming out of your mouth before it happens. Killer, not a good guy.
TTG,
Well said.
I despise the conspiracy theories developing around this situation as much as I do those around 9/11/2021. Everyone in the world is capable of evil and stupidity. The source extends way beyond the US and Israel.
“There’s really no need for America to tread there at all.
Israel is fully capable of exacting all the vengeance she desires.
We do not need to help her.”
Just for clarity, it looks like some people now have discovered a need:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/09/israel-seeks-weapons-missiles-artillery-from-us-00120587
Four long posts from Russian Telegram. They overlap and repeat, sorry, too fatigued to sort it out and actually the personal flavor is nice so this is fine. Some clumsiness due to robo translation.
TTG is right about the Iranian fear of a Saudi (meaning Arab) rapprochement with Israel. But a dimension unnoticed seems to be that this attack was in part purposed to force the US to send lots of arms to Israel, which would badly embarrass the Arabs while negotiating with Israel. (Keep in mind that Hamas and Hezbollah are backed by Iran which is Shiite, whereas most of the Arab world is Sunni, and the Sunni – Shia rift is as old and profound as the Muslim vs Israel and US rifts. And yes, Hamas is mostly Palestinians who are not Iranians, and also they are Sunni unlike their backers Iran.) But there are at least two currents running through this attack. The desire to block a Saudi – Israel rapprochement AND revenge upon Israel and mainly its special forces who have been badly damaging Iran for years. Another morsel is that many of the fighters in this attack were Assyrians who vacated Karabakh once that ended to Iran and then were sent to Gaza. In other words not garden variety Palestinians, but experienced, tough fighters.
https://t.me/atomiccherry/557
So, it’s done.
For several years now I have been expecting some interesting operation in the Israeli direction, carried out by pro-Iranian forces, and it happened – with very impressive results.
However, first things first.
Already now you can observe many “far-reaching” conclusions that, based on the results of what happened in Israel, we will see a new chapter of modern war, and so on, so on – these deep conclusions are made on the basis of several videos with the use of civilian UAVs, Palestinian motorcycle raids and other things. . Such conclusions, to put it mildly, can hardly be called at least correct – they lose sight of the full picture of what is happening, if not to say that they completely ignore it.
It’s worth starting with the fact that the Palestinian units are not a bunch of funny guys from the street who run around with Chinese AKs, defeating the regular army through copters from AliExpress and religious pumping. Behind the people in the footage is a huge body of work by skilled and sophisticated military specialists from Iran who spent many years collecting and analyzing intelligence, developing plans, preparing military assets and many other aspects that made this a reality. You see only that part of the picture that you are allowed to see – and you are deeply mistaken about the real state of affairs.
You look at the militia, but you don’t see the Iranian commando teams operating undercover, which made it possible to capture the Israeli special forces general. You look at the drone drops, but you don’t see the launch of thousands of missiles that have scattered the attention of the IDF command. You see paragliders, but you don’t notice Iranian aerial and radio intelligence, which helps direct Palestinian troops to the most vulnerable areas of Israeli security forces’ defenses.
One should not be mistaken in thinking that modern technologies are capable of radically changing the capabilities of irregular forces. This only becomes possible if there is a fundamental change in their organizational approach and strategy – which is exactly what we are seeing in what is happening today.
It is not the grenade-laden drones that deserve admiration here, but the Iranian planners – they organized a magnificent raid by the rebel organization into the territory of one of the most militarized countries in the world, cleverly using surprise, speed and panic as cover for their actions. Palestinian troops have been in close contact with Israeli security forces for many hours, preventing the IDF from realizing its full superiority in firepower, and the capture of numerous hostages paralyzes the Israeli Air Force, which cannot carry out strikes on Gaza with full force.
The meaning of this raid is extremely simple – and it is not about “terrorism”, as the defenders of the noble gentlemen from Tel Aviv claim, who have been entertaining themselves by throwing hand grenades and aerial bombs in residential areas for decades (and also proudly talk about operations in other countries , including civilian casualties – but this, of course, is different). This is just an excellent way to obtain a huge amount of intelligence about Israeli response protocols, the speed of mobilization, the actual readiness of the army and intelligence structures. And, of course, one should not think that General Nimrod Aloni, shown to the public, was the only valuable captive for today – Ashkelon and Sderot are rather large cities, and they are home to many personalities of interest to Iranian intelligence (and not only, perhaps, Iranian intelligence).
Make no mistake, the Palestinians have no chance of winning. But the lesson of this day is that with good organization, planning and analysis, even Hamas can become a formidable weapon and deliver a powerful blow to a technologically and quantitatively superior enemy.
https://t.me/atomiccherry/558
So, today we can sum up some results of the first day of the raid on Israeli territory.
We are interested in two groups of events, for the sake of which, in fact, the breakthrough of the Israeli border was organized:
1) Numerous liquidations of senior command personnel and specialists from the Israel Defense Forces;
2) Capturing or infiltrating the territory of Israeli command posts.
At the current time, information is circulating in the media about the death of 2 generals (Hamas also claims the capture of 4), 5 colonels, a lieutenant colonel and an IDF major. It is noteworthy, firstly, that the dead are related to Israeli special operations forces and army intelligence, and secondly, that some of them were liquidated along with their families – this indicates a possible preliminary infiltration of Iranian cleansing teams that “worked ” on the command staff as early as the morning of October 7, thereby paralyzing the coordination of defense in southern Israel (and this probably explains the significant disorganization in the actions of the Israeli police and army).
We also have information received directly from the IDF about the capture of the headquarters of the Gaza division (in fact, in our opinion, the headquarters of the operational direction, if we draw rough analogies) and the center of the naval forces, which were held by the “militants” for many hours. In addition, a number of smaller but important objects such as forward reconnaissance posts were captured.
As I hope the reader understands, the capture of such important facilities in the shortest possible time is simply impossible with the forces of irregular forces, which you could see in most of yesterday’s videos provided by Hamas. Likewise, not by some unfortunate accident, every few hours a new name appears of a liquidated senior IDF officer, whose number has already mysteriously exceeded the number of dead Israeli sergeants and lieutenants (and, apparently, this is happening in response to the murders of Iranian officers from various structures organized over the past year by Israeli intelligence).
If we step back from the moral and ethical aspects of what is happening and look at the events of the past day from the point of view of the professional confrontation between Iranian and Israeli security forces, then Iran has demonstrated the highest level of competence. Even the hostage-taking scenes, which are unpleasant for most of you, actually represent sound military cynicism – the large number of prisoners in Gaza seriously constrains the IDF command in its actions. In fact, the Iranians are provoking the IDF into a large-scale ground operation in the Gaza Strip without proper air and artillery support (it is also noteworthy that some of the hostages are tourists from Western countries, for the capture of whom Hamas used part of its paragliding forces; in a word, this was a pre-prepared action , increasing the overall value of the hostage fund).
Why is this even important? In dense urban areas, Israeli firepower will be largely neutralized, and the IDF will have to operate on enemy territory with infrastructure prepared for this (underground communications, warehouses, barracks, observation posts). Israel already had the unpleasant experience of “not winning” under similar conditions during the invasion of Lebanon in 2006, and it will be no less interesting to watch what happens now.
PS: by the way, why has @yigal_levin been so sad the last two days? Where are his signature fiery jokes about the “Colonel Fall” ? So many IDF officers “fell”, isn’t it funny?
@atomiccherry 💯
https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/51091
Jewish Pearl Harbor.I
1. Not yet Armageddon. This is a superbly prepared sabotage raid with long-term prospects. They counted him for a long time. The morphology of this mass of Palestinians is of three types: slippers with machine guns, inside them are people who know exactly what to do and how to do it, i.e. special forces units that went to addresses, worked to detain officers, and carried out assault operations. These are highly professional people. Parallel to this train walked an unarmed crowd, which served as reinforcement detachments – they continued the pogroms. Considering how hostages were taken, there were intelligence officers in the crowd who led the groups.
2. The planning of the operation must be given due credit:
a) overloaded Israeli air defense with thousands of missiles;
b) crushed the capabilities of Israeli communications with electronic warfare. They haven’t used electronic warfare against Israel as they should for about 30 years!
c) broke into the bases. A naval base, two infantry division bases, and the base of the 143rd division (the so-called “Gaza Division”), which provided force support for all cleansing operations, raids, and seizures in the sector, were captured (according to Israel). For 12 hours the base was in Palestinian control. A large amount of information was seized: codes, ciphers, entry points of the DRGs, their evacuation, support protocols – fire, physical, ciphers, communications.
d) At the same time, landing on the water was organized;
e) Arab riots began in Jerusalem itself.
3. In fact, until midday on October 7, 2023, the territory that the Palestinians began to control is larger than the one that the crests have been trying to recapture from us for four months. The Arabs entered like a knife into butter.
4. A brilliant sabotage operation. No matter how monstrous it may sound, non-combatant hostages were taken out en masse for cover and exchange of prisoners. For Israel, this is Pearl Harbor. Israel, which existed up to this point, has ceased to exist because Israel will be reviewing all defense protocols anew. This is a monstrous failure of intelligence and counterintelligence.
5. This is a special operation. If there had been an army, perhaps they would have been able to reach further into the territory of Israel itself. If an IDF ground operation begins, the Israelis must predict whether this is what the enemy was trying to achieve: to draw the Jews into ground operations to strike from all sides. This also cannot be discarded. At a minimum, part of the Islamic world, having become radicalized, can actively support the Palestinians.
6. The Arabs themselves, on command, left the objects captured during the sabotage raid, leaving reinforcement groups (see above) of civilians with bricks and clubs. The pros left, taking intelligence information and hostages.
7. Media effect. They recorded professionally made videos immediately, within the first 3-4 hours of the start of the operation. The information part is strong, and the Muslim world is greedy for this “tik-tok” and “Allahu Akbar”. Everything plays into this.
8. The Israeli army is the strongest in the region. The defeat of the Merkav by drones was not expected. 2 tanks were destroyed, 5 were captured. Light and heavy armored personnel carriers and equipment were captured.
9. The behavior of the IDF during the cleansing operations shows an inability to behave in an urban environment. Almost like the Russian army on New Year’s Eve 1995 in Grozny. I’m surprised by what I see. Very strange footage. I don’t understand Israel’s readiness. They constantly work in urban environments. And here the actions are confused, crowded, uncollected – I am in amazement.
@voenkorKotenok
https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/51128
Briefly about the forerunner of Armageddon.
1. With a high degree of probability, the first Palestinian attack was carried out from within. The same blow beheaded the leading Israeli units, incl. colonels/generals (police officers, special services, commanders of units, formations and individual units).
2. Until now, the Jews have not cleared their territory. Until they do this, launching a full-fledged operation in Gaza is suicide. But the likelihood of a major operation on the ground is very high. They will still enter Gaza and try to take it completely. We’ll see how they do it, especially considering that Hamas’s event was not accidental and was prepared for a long time.
3. Now they are leveling Gaza with “selective cast iron” to the ground according to the principle “Whoever it falls on is the terrorist.” The Americans are stepping up to help coordinate and resolve issues of logistics and fire support for the ground operation. There is a high probability that it will happen – the Israelis are furious with what is happening.
4. The pressing question is: will Hezbollah fit in? So far what is happening suggests that it will fit in. If the Americans get in, most likely the Iraqis will get in. Iraqi factions (not just Shiites) said they were ready to fit in. It is no coincidence that Jews in northern Israel also feel threatened and have begun evacuating northern kibbutzim.
5. I do not rule out that this is what Iran intended – to let Israel get involved in the ground operation, overload hospitals, strain the infrastructure, start burning equipment and at some point fit in themselves. This scenario cannot be discounted in any way.
6. Again about the readiness of IDF units . This is just some kind of anecdote, starting from professional moments in the actions of special forces units and ending with lining up in a row and covering their artillery and self-propelled guns with shells. If you work against them, relatively speaking, UAVs, the same analogues of the Lancets, you can burn them in batches. For “dessert” – moving on open roads in large columns, practically without worrying about an attack from the air, but it is possible. The enemy has everything to attack them, incl. from the air, it’s just not happening yet.
7. The first day of the operation suggests that Hamas managed to escape with the loot. And his groups continue to terrorize Israel.
8. There is no talk of using nuclear weapons. At the moment the Jews do not see a threat to do this. Yes, they are furious because they were humiliated, but not because they were defeated. Israel was not defeated. This is classic humiliation.
9. In 2022, Jews gave about 300 thousand ammunition to Ukrainians. I think they will miss them now.
Lots of references to Pearl Harbor doing the rounds, but to my mind the more appropriate analogy would be the Tet Offensive.
The Vietnamese had no illusion that they could defeat the US Army head-to-head, but that wasn’t the aim.
The aim was to shake up all the comfortable assumptions that Washington had factored into their policy viz the war.
Perhaps the same will happen here.
Doubtful, but from Hamas PoV they may have felt they had no choice but to roll the dice.
Yeah right,
The Palestinians are just angry idiots lashing out. That’s all there is to it. Don’t over-think it. Now they will be crushed like cockroaches.
Too bad they can’t find it in themselves to move on and create a better life.
Hamas will be defeated, and plenty of residents in the Gaza Strip will be crushed under the rubble.
I would expect that Netanyahu will settle for nothing less than a 10:1 ratio of civilian deaths.
But the Palestinians will win in the end. They are not cockroaches nor do they have anywhere to “move on”.
They do want a better life, just as Israel is determined to deny that to them. But in the end they’ll win.
“Tet Offensive”
This is the best historical comparison. It encompasses the failure of intelligence.
“Victory” is in the fact of the offensive, regardless of its outcome in terms of territorial gain or loss of life.
In any case, victory (unlikely) or defeat, the humiliation of the Palestinians by the “self-confident and domineering Israelis” ((c) 1967, de Gaulle) will carry on.
Probably take town of khan yunis hostage and surround it today